politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vince Cable looks set to become the first Strictly contestant

Bobajob_PB said:

The PB Quiz is to guess the identity of the lady on the Times front page, with only her right arm in shot on that Tweet.

Gina Miller

Bobajob_PB said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Bobajob_PB said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/879803429530554369

Yet again makes my point that the government haven't got a sodding clue what they are doing, and are just shambling around while Brussels runs rings around them, to the amusement of the rest of the world. How we ended up with Toxic Tess and the Killer Clowns Boris and Davis handling this, I have no idea. Where's Foxy? Has someone shot him?

No, Liam's still alive:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/24/liam-fox-interview-country-made-views-clear-part-dont-people/

He's beaming a lot surrounded by his art collection, but still seems to be fighting the EU referendum a little bit much to my mind. Come on, Liam - put that triumph behind you. You won. Now roll up your sleeves and start securing us those trade deals!

Chortle. The most ineffective Secretary of State since Alan Clark?

And what was Alan Clark Secretary of State for?

He wasn't. He was junior minister at various departments.

Indeed it was my cockup to posthumously promote him in the OP. Apologies. Although how he rose to the dizzy heights of minister remains something of a mystery.

He was a fantastic Minister of State for Defence Procurement.

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

GIN1138 said:

I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...

But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.

As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...

Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

GIN1138 said:

I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...

But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.

As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...

Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664

The old ones are still the best.

Bobajob_PB said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Bob a job

'In all fairness G, your wisdom about the Labour Party could be written on the back of one of Uncle Vince's cruelly privatised postage stamps '

Believe me I have lived through all kinds of labour parties and remember Kinnock saving them from the hard left only for the hard left to arise through Corbyn. I remember the refuse in the streets and the dead lyjng unburied. I also voted for Tony twice - so do not patronise me

I was only pulling your leg, it might have come across harsher than it was intended (which was not harsh at all). Sorry if so.

That's fair enough - appreciated

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

HYUFD said:

Danny565 said:

LOL at the idea that Vince Cable is a "leftie" or "Labour by another means". Are we talking about the person who even back in 2009 was talking up the necessity of "savage" spending cuts, who was the main face of the tuition fees rise, who privatised the Royal Mail, and who generally didn't raise much objection to being in government with the Tories? If anything, I would say the biggest argument against him being leader is precisely that he would be distrusted by the left-liberal voters in Cambridge and the like who are still very negative towards the Coalition.

Even so, if I was a LibDem member I would still probably think him the best option -- with the situation the party is in, they really need someone who has something of a public profile to even get noticed, even when that profile isn't wholly positive. They can't afford to take a punt on some new MP who might theoretically have broader appeal to their pre-Coalition voters (if there are any MPs who meet that criteria), they need to go with someone who the public already know just to get back into the game.

Cable was a Labour councillor and parliamentary candidate before he joined the SDP, he is also a staunch Europhile and social democrat (note not socialist)

He was a Labour councillor in the 1970s, but I rather suspect voters may think his policies and actions in 2010-15 are rather more relevant.

Don't forget Labour won about a third of 2015 LDs in 2017, Cable could win them back, after all they voted for Clegg even if they did not vote for Farron

Cable would struggle to keep my vote, and I am a party member!

+1 on both counts.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

GIN1138 said:

I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...

But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.

As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...

Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664

The old ones are still the best.

And with the suggestions that David Davis is set to introduce a de facto ID card, he's a bit of a hypocritical git

Surely he should test the opinion of the people in Haltemprice and Howden on such an issue?

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

GIN1138 said:

I think Hammond is just muddying the waters to try and destabilize May even more...

This is between Davis and Barnier and I'm confident they'll reach a sensible settlement if the like's of Hammond and Boris aren't allowed to stir things up too much.

And of course lets not forget the extreme voices in the EU as well...

But the Leavers assured us that wouldn't be a problem.

BMW and Mercedes would force Frau Merkel to give us a good deal was the spin.

As soon as the German elections are out of the way she'll be on the first plane to London with a trade deal ready to sign...

Here's a tweet that's not aged well.

https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/735770073822961664

The old ones are still the best.

And with the suggestions that David Davis is set to introduce a de facto ID card, he's a bit of a hypocritical git

I don't think he was opposed to the government storing names of peoples with visas and work permits on a database though, was hie?

If looks like an ID card, walks like an ID card, and quacks like an ID card...

KentRising said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/879817600783536129

People are naive if they think any leader of the SNP, a party for which Scottish independence is their raison d'etre, is going to come out and say "we're going to put off holding a referendum indefinitely". Of course not; she is going to to talk in some vague way about a time not 2 years but not as much as 5 years hence, to keep her base happy while committing to nothing.

And in 2021 lose her majority and the end of Independence for a generation

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

archer101au said:

Hammond needs to be fired. Everyone else in Government is on the same page - he is just angling for the leadership by abandoning his so-called Eurosceptic principles to curry favour with the Soft Brexit crowd. His behaviour is entirely self-serving and May would look strong if she kicked him out - I doubt that many of his cabinet colleagues would come to his rescue. The reality is that the only people who support him as replacement PM are remainers who would never vote Conservative anyway.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/879809263526440960

Yeah, go ahead and fire him, and the Government will fall in no time at all. Hammond is working for British business's interests. Not arcane nostalgia and flag worship. Sacking him will send a disastrous message.

May could not now sack Hammond even if she wanted to, he is probably the most powerful man in government at the moment

According to Tom Newton Dunn on Sky paper review the lobby brief today indicated that Theresa favours Hammond's approach. If true that seems significant

Well the whole diamond hard brexit approach always seemed more of a political calculation of where the public were at rather than born of convictions that it was the right approach - she was a remainer after all. Having seen that the public are not that way inclined, there's really no reason she would want to continue like that. She has also lost some of her inner circle now, and has no choice but to consult more with hammond, damien green etc - people who will be pushing a very different line than Timothy was.

Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

Paristonda said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

archer101au said:

Hammond needs to be fired. Everyone else in Government is on the same page - he is just angling for the leadership by abandoning his so-called Eurosceptic principles to curry favour with the Soft Brexit crowd. His behaviour is entirely self-serving and May would look strong if she kicked him out - I doubt that many of his cabinet colleagues would come to his rescue. The reality is that the only people who support him as replacement PM are remainers who would never vote Conservative anyway.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/879809263526440960

Yeah, go ahead and fire him, and the Government will fall in no time at all. Hammond is working for British business's interests. Not arcane nostalgia and flag worship. Sacking him will send a disastrous message.

May could not now sack Hammond even if she wanted to, he is probably the most powerful man in government at the moment

According to Tom Newton Dunn on Sky paper review the lobby brief today indicated that Theresa favours Hammond's approach. If true that seems significant

Well the whole diamond hard brexit approach always seemed more of a political calculation of where the public were at rather than born of convictions that it was the right approach - she was a remainer after all. Having seen that the public are not that way inclined, there's really no reason she would want to continue like that. She has also lost some of her inner circle now, and has no choice but to consult more with hammond, damien green etc - people who will be pushing a very different line than Timothy was.

Yes, if I were May I would say sod the northern working class Labour Leave voters who she tried so hard to appease, if they could not be bothered to vote for the hard Brexit she was proposing she may as well go for a softer Brexit which might win back some of the Remain voting Tories she lost in London and the south. Even if she does not lead the Tories at the next general election she could bow out having done a pragmatic and sane Brexit which protects the economy with some token free movement controls and then hand over to Hammond

Big_G_NorthWales said:

KentRising said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/879817600783536129

People are naive if they think any leader of the SNP, a party for which Scottish independence is their raison d'etre, is going to come out and say "we're going to put off holding a referendum indefinitely". Of course not; she is going to to talk in some vague way about a time not 2 years but not as much as 5 years hence, to keep her base happy while committing to nothing.

And in 2021 lose her majority and the end of Independence for a generation

Plus most of the remainder of her central belt seats to Corbyn

Paristonda said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Monksfield said:

archer101au said:

Hammond needs to be fired. Everyone else in Government is on the same page - he is just angling for the leadership by abandoning his so-called Eurosceptic principles to curry favour with the Soft Brexit crowd. His behaviour is entirely self-serving and May would look strong if she kicked him out - I doubt that many of his cabinet colleagues would come to his rescue. The reality is that the only people who support him as replacement PM are remainers who would never vote Conservative anyway.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/879809263526440960

Yeah, go ahead and fire him, and the Government will fall in no time at all. Hammond is working for British business's interests. Not arcane nostalgia and flag worship. Sacking him will send a disastrous message.

May could not now sack Hammond even if she wanted to, he is probably the most powerful man in government at the moment

According to Tom Newton Dunn on Sky paper review the lobby brief today indicated that Theresa favours Hammond's approach. If true that seems significant

Well the whole diamond hard brexit approach always seemed more of a political calculation of where the public were at rather than born of convictions that it was the right approach - she was a remainer after all. Having seen that the public are not that way inclined, there's really no reason she would want to continue like that. She has also lost some of her inner circle now, and has no choice but to consult more with hammond, damien green etc - people who will be pushing a very different line than Timothy was.

The only way "no deal" could even be vaguely plausible would be if we were actively preparing for it, for example recruiting customs men, surveying areas for lorry parks near Dover, doing sums on tariffs etc. until then it is less credible than one of Baldricks cunning plans.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.

But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

So not strictly comparable?

I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.

Paristonda said:

Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

Can they currently vote in General Elections then?

No, lol.

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

22 seats. That's the number of net gains Labour made from the Conservatives at the general election. In 1992, for example, the party made 39 net gains from the Conservatives. And in 1987, 17 net gains.

http://www.election.demon.co.uk/changes.html

Michael Howard made 24 net gains from Labour in 2005, so Corbyn actually did worse than Howard on a net gains basis

If net gains/losses are the metric of who does better or worse in elections, does that mean Corbyn did actually beat May after all?

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

Can they currently vote in General Elections then?

local and European elections. Maltese, Irish and Cypriots can vote in GE, as can Indians and Pakistanis etc.

And I don't think that will change, apart from the lack of European elections - we'll all be spared the three day wait for them to count our votes.

@JohnJCrace: David Davis:'We're not going to introduce ID cards. We're going to introduce cards of identification'. Brilliant

isam said:

RobD said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

Can they currently vote in General Elections then?

No, lol.

We have become Apartheid era South Africa

I don't think France or Germany allow non-nationals to vote in their general elections. I think the UK might be quite unusual in giving those rights to Commonwealth/Irish citizens.

RobD said:

isam said:

RobD said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

Can they currently vote in General Elections then?

No, lol.

We have become Apartheid era South Africa

I don't think France or Germany allow non-nationals to vote in their general elections. I think the UK might be quite unusual in giving those rights to Commonwealth/Irish citizens.

So what's the problem?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paristonda said:

Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration

Yes, as long as we get something on immigration (and we can do this within the single market, the FoM rules are not quite the same as in the EU proper), and leave the official structures of the EU, I think the public as a whole will largely be content to say "yes, this follows the instructions we gave in the referendum, and there is at least some change on immigration, even if I would personally want more" , and a deal would be approved. Leavers just want to leave and get it done, the vast majority of remainers just want a soft landing and to get it done - there is only a small minority on both sides that will go for the 'never surrender' approach.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.

But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

So not strictly comparable?

I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.

But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.

I was chatting to a Maltese friend earlier, who had never experienced hostility as an immigrant (she has been here over a decade) she has had quite a bit of it since over the last year.

We have lost our Spanish nurses too. Shame.

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paristonda said:

Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration

what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

This is not an ala carte menu.

Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger

AndyJS said:

Danny565 said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

22 seats. That's the number of net gains Labour made from the Conservatives at the general election. In 1992, for example, the party made 39 net gains from the Conservatives. And in 1987, 17 net gains.

http://www.election.demon.co.uk/changes.html

Michael Howard made 24 net gains from Labour in 2005, so Corbyn actually did worse than Howard on a net gains basis

If net gains/losses are the metric of who does better or worse in elections, does that mean Corbyn did actually beat May after all?

The main metric is 13.6 million votes vs 12.9 million. But net gains are interesting as well.

Well, quite - and equally, on the same metric of votes, Corbyn did considerably better than Howard and Kinnock.

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paristonda said:

Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration

what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

This is not an ala carte menu.

No, but we can make some changes on FoM within the single market while still keeping FoM largely intact. We can't cherry pick within the EU but we can make an off the shelf model work with at best a few tweaks. Now, the EU may well be so intent on punishing us that they go out of their way to sabotage even that, but I don't think so. The EU is more confident than it has been for a while - they are less worried about contagion from us than they were previously. They simply want us gone in the quietest way possible so they can forget about us and move on with the project.

Danny565 said:

Scott_P said:

@JohnJCrace: David Davis:'We're not going to introduce ID cards. We're going to introduce cards of identification'. Brilliant

LOL that can't be real?!?

I would have though it would have been a visa sticker as opposed to an ID card (there is no need for one, since every person applying should have a passport already).

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paristonda said:

Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration

what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

This is not an ala carte menu.

Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger

They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

Soft Brexit as a concept is a British construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.

It will become a huge battle between EU trade organisations and Brussels. I would not dismiss Merkel so easily either. Lets see how she reacts after the German elections

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paristonda said:

Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration

what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

This is not an ala carte menu.

Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger

They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

Soft Brexit as a concept is a British construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.

There is no reason to disbelieve them. For the EU it's a choice between the Single Market with full freedom of movement or what we call hard Brexit. If it's the former the present discussion about citizens' rights is moot because EU citizens would have automatic rights to be here.

@IainGrayMSP: So, it turns out FM statement was not in fact a response to scottish voters, but the launch of yet another SNP Indy campaign website.

@dhothersall: No seriously, it's getting embarrassing now. https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/879804346388631553

FF43 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paristonda said:

Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration

what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

This is not an ala carte menu.

Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger

They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

Soft Brexit as a concept is a British construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.

There is no reason to disbelieve them. For the EU it's a choice between the Single Market with full freedom of movement or what we call hard Brexit. If it's the former the present discussion about citizens' rights is moot because EU citizens would have automatic rights to be here.

Yet the UK did not take up the transition controls most EU nations imposed on the accession countries in 2004 for 7 years, so some variant of that would not be incompatible with Single Market membership as it has already been done

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paristonda said:

Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration

what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

This is not an ala carte menu.

Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend that they will not accept tariffs with the UK under any circumstances. And they won't be the only industry in the EU gathering together to demand free trade with the UK from Brussels. If the EU are seen to be threatening their jobs and prosperity over a political project they will not be able to contain the anger

They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

Soft Brexit as a concept is a British construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.

There is no reason to disbelieve them. For the EU it's a choice between the Single Market with full freedom of movement or what we call hard Brexit. If it's the former the present discussion about citizens' rights is moot because EU citizens would have automatic rights to be here.

Yet the UK did not take up the transition controls most EU nations imposed on the accession countries in 2004 for 7 years, so some variant of that would not be incompatible with Single Market membership as it has already been done

A transition period cuts both ways and once it's over, it's over. The accession countries also had time to adjust before fully opening up their economies to competition from existing EU members.

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Paristonda said:

Who are the true believer hard brexiteers in cabinet?

Boris will go where the wind is. My guess is Davis would prefer a hard brexit but is enough of a pragmatic to settle for a softer version, and especially as he is negotiating, will want a path of less resistance. Rudd and Hammond are softies. Fox is a diehard brexiteer right? but also quite unimportant it seems. Priti Patel the other hard brexiteer that springs to mind.

The wider issue is that there must be a substantial majority of MP's seeking soft Brexit including the DUP and Scons and I see no prospect of the diehard's winning the argument. Even I am now between soft and even staying with some negotiation around immigration

what parliament wants may well be beside the point. Will the EU agree a soft Brexit?

This is not an ala carte menu.

Well if it does not the ball game changes to self harm for everyone. Notice German Manufactures issued a warning to Merkel over the weekend tha

They may not have the choice. It is not Merkels decision, but rather an EU one.

Soft Brexit as a concept is a British construct. As Tusk said, there is either Brexit or no Brexit. No one on the other side discusses it.

There .

Yet the UK did not take up the transition controls most EU nations imposed on the accession countries in 2004 for 7 years, so some variant of that would not be incompatible with Single Market membership as it has already been done

A transition period cuts both ways and once it's over, it's over. The accession countries also had time to adjust before fully opening up their economies to competition from existing EU members. .

Well they may no longer be accession countries but legally it could be argued the UK has yet to 'cash in' the controls on Eastern European migration other EU nations have already imposed because of the decision of the last Labour government (against the wishes of the current incumbent Tory party), it would be difficult for Merkel and Macron etc to logically argue why the UK can not now impose for seven years similar controls to those their nations have already imposed. The controls could also only apply to free movement of people and workers which is the real concern in Britain, free movement of capital, goods and services to and from Eastern Europe could continue unchecked

GeoffM said:

Pong said:

Scott_P said:

@JohnJCrace: David Davis:'We're not going to introduce ID cards. We're going to introduce cards of identification'. Brilliant

Did he actually say that?

I can't find a link.

Indeed. All the 'net contains so far is a single tweet by a Guardian journalist and a smorgasbord of knobheads wading in underneath it.

The quotes that Crace has put around the tweet seem to be completely made up. Coming from the Guardian this should not surprise us.

#FakeNews #FakeTweets

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.

But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

So not strictly comparable?

I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.

But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls

Horlicks. After a year they can apply to become citizens - then they get the vote.

https://twitter.com/jayyduval/status/879025446695915520

https://twitter.com/godfreyelfwick/status/879760661953351683

The Swedish actor who played Mikael Blomkvist in The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo has died at 56:

http://news.sky.com/story/the-girl-with-the-dragon-tattoo-actor-michael-nyqvist-dies-10929467

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

That's true of most settled foreign citizens in most countries. In general, votes come with citizenship. If they want to enfranchise themselves they should become citizens.

I wonder what the electoral consequences of this will be. There must be a lot of people now getting citizenship who wouldn't have bothered if not for Brexit.

This looks set to,be interesting,with the tight parliamentary arithmetic, and is probably not good for the Tories...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40423052
What might have looked an empty gesture pre-election takes on some political significance.

The Times front page strongly suggests that David Davis continues to wing it. I wonder if he still believes we'll be signing a trade deal with Germany post-Brexit.

Nigelb said:

This looks set to,be interesting,with the tight parliamentary arithmetic, and is probably not good for the Tories...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40423052
What might have looked an empty gesture pre-election takes on some political significance.

Perhaps someone should table an amendment adding '1p to basic income tax to pay for it'?

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.

But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

So not strictly comparable?

I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.

But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.

Since foreign nationals have never had the vote in Parliamentary elections in this country, how are they being disenfranchised?

It seems entirely right to me that voting is linked to citizenship.

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.

But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

So not strictly comparable?

I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.

But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.

Since foreign nationals have never had the vote in Parliamentary elections in this country, how are they being disenfranchised?

It seems entirely right to me that voting is linked to citizenship.

I have to have an ID card, have no vote and will never be entitled to a state pension but still choose to live in Denmark - EU citizens will make similar choices in the UK including becoming citizens if they wish - just as I may do (but even then I won't get a pension)

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.

But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

So not strictly comparable?

I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.

But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.

Since foreign nationals have never had the vote in Parliamentary elections in this country, how are they being disenfranchised?

It seems entirely right to me that voting is linked to citizenship.

Can't EU nationals vote in local elections currently? Taking that right away is disenfranchising them.

What we are making clear to EU27 citizens is that we believe they currently have too many rights and we are not really that bothered if removing some of them causes upset. This will make little difference lower down the scale, but it will make the UK a far less attractive place to locate or remain for those whose skillsets give them a choice.

The damage the UK is currently doing to its international standing is immense. The flag-waving party is inflicting substantial harm on what it professes to care about most. But there is an upside: as the UK becomes ever-more irrelevant internationally, we can drop the pretence that we sre a major international player and save ourselves a lot of money on projects like Trident.

kingbongo said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps we could house them in townships?

Brexit Britain will be home to 3 million second-class European Union “settled citizens” who have been fingerprinted, registered and issued with a residence identity document and with no vote in general elections.

That is the “between the lines” message of the British government’s offer on EU citizens’ rights after Brexit. The 3 million EU nationals will be joining the ranks of at least 1 million foreign nationals from outside the EU with “indefinite leave to remain” status who already form a largely invisible disenfranchised subclass in Britain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/27/brexit-will-cement-disenfranchisement-of-millions-of-citizens

That's no difference from my experience in the US. I had to be fingerprinted at the embassy, I have a residency document that I have to keep, and I have no vote. Yet still tens/hundreds of thousands want to emigrate here every year.

But you're planning on coming back to the UK in the short term, these are people who are planning to stay in the UK for the long term.

So not strictly comparable?

I'm on a dual-intent visa, I could apply for permanent residency if I wished. Even if I did that I would still have been fingerprinted, I'd have even more residency documents to carry around with me, and I still wouldn't get a vote.

But there's a route for you to get the vote, unlike these poor EU souls, they'd be better off being Commonwealth citizens.

No wonder one third of them are considering leaving the UK.

Since foreign nationals have never had the vote in Parliamentary elections in this country, how are they being disenfranchised?

It seems entirely right to me that voting is linked to citizenship.

I have to have an ID card, have no vote and will never be entitled to a state pension but still choose to live in Denmark - EU citizens will make similar choices in the UK including becoming citizens if they wish - just as I may do (but even then I won't get a pension)

EU citizens are already making those decisions and are leaving. We are making the UK a less attractive place to come or to stay for those whose skills we really need. And, of course, if the UK government gets its way you will have fewer rights in Denmark than you do at the moment.

Except the citizens of Andorra, Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Poland, Denmark, Latvia, Slovakia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Romania, Spain and Norway.....who will have to choose between citizenships, as their countries bar dual-citizenship

No longer true of Denmark - my daughter has dual UK-DK citizenship