politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If there was a spread-betting market on how many months Toxic
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The Prime Minister is such a wonderful campaigner that she turned a landslide into a hung parliament in little more than seven weeks. Accordingly I can't think of a single reason why the Conservatives wouldn't want Theresa May to lead them into the next general election.JennyFreeman said:TM shouldn't be underestimated. She won't be going anywhere for some time.
My money would be on her leading the Conservatives into the next election. And, unless they fail to learn from the idiocy of their last campaign, there's an interesting punt to be had on them winning outright.
And, yes, toxic is a very silly choice of word.
Shocking I know, but there it is.0 -
Is it a cat?JennyFreeman said:
In the same vein as Basil Fawlty's 'Who won the bloody war anyway?' ... remind me ...TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone on PB had been warning since last summer Theresa May was a pound shop Gordon Brown and such like.MonikerDiCanio said:
PB should be ahead of the pack rather than lamely following it.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
.MonikerDiCanio said:Toxic Theresa . Sad to see OGH descend into the gutter. This nasty witch hunt has long since become tedious and disgusting.
... just who is living in No. 10 Downing St anyway?0 -
True, although perhaps the polls were always wrong (and underweighting Labour).JackW said:
The Prime Minister is such a wonderful campaigner that she turned a landslide into a hung parliament in little more than seven weeks. Accordingly I can't think of a single reason why the Conservatives wouldn't want Theresa May to lead them into the next general election.JennyFreeman said:TM shouldn't be underestimated. She won't be going anywhere for some time.
My money would be on her leading the Conservatives into the next election. And, unless they fail to learn from the idiocy of their last campaign, there's an interesting punt to be had on them winning outright.
And, yes, toxic is a very silly choice of word.
Shocking I know, but there it is.0 -
@ Topping
Indeed, but at least the direction of travel is set. EU citizens "settled" from before 2017/19 will decline in number as time goes by (as will child benefit payments to EU citizens abroad for instance, - by the late 2030's that will be £0 one assumes), and so will become a smaller issue. In that sense, though not perfect, time will be on our side as the numbers UK courts do not 100% adjudicate on decline, and I suppose our "sovereignty quota" goes up. Back in the real world one would hope that any court would remain 100% fair and just, but the danger is that the ECJ will just be seen as biased whatever, by sections of the UK populace as the set up will be seen as lop sided if they got their way as they propose.0 -
It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?Scott_P said:
Utter chaos incoming.0 -
Thing is though that YouGov (one of the most accurate pollsters by the end of the campaign, and never applied very aggressive turnout weightings) were showing as big a Tory lead as anyone right at the beginning.Casino_Royale said:
True, although perhaps the polls were always wrong (and underweighting Labour).JackW said:
The Prime Minister is such a wonderful campaigner that she turned a landslide into a hung parliament in little more than seven weeks. Accordingly I can't think of a single reason why the Conservatives wouldn't want Theresa May to lead them into the next general election.JennyFreeman said:TM shouldn't be underestimated. She won't be going anywhere for some time.
My money would be on her leading the Conservatives into the next election. And, unless they fail to learn from the idiocy of their last campaign, there's an interesting punt to be had on them winning outright.
And, yes, toxic is a very silly choice of word.
Shocking I know, but there it is.0 -
Larry the cat. The PM is merely one of his staff.JennyFreeman said:
In the same vein as Basil Fawlty's 'Who won the bloody war anyway?' ... remind me ...TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone on PB had been warning since last summer Theresa May was a pound shop Gordon Brown and such like.MonikerDiCanio said:
PB should be ahead of the pack rather than lamely following it.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
.MonikerDiCanio said:Toxic Theresa . Sad to see OGH descend into the gutter. This nasty witch hunt has long since become tedious and disgusting.
... just who is living in No. 10 Downing St anyway?0 -
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.0 -
If Sturgeon carries on the way she has, she'll lose power at Holyrood in 2020 with Ruth Davidson as FM of a minority Tory administration, possibly even (shock horror) with Labour support to oust the SNP in a tacit Unionist alliance.
Zoomers will laugh, but no-one thought they'd lose 20 seats three weeks ago.0 -
The Tory lead was probably around 18 pts at the start of the campaign, Labour just picked up almost every undecided voter is all, and had around a 1 pt "ballot box" switch.Danny565 said:
Thing is though that YouGov (one of the most accurate pollsters by the end of the campaign) were showing as big a Tory lead as anyone right at the beginning.Casino_Royale said:
True, although perhaps the polls were always wrong (and underweighting Labour).JackW said:
The Prime Minister is such a wonderful campaigner that she turned a landslide into a hung parliament in little more than seven weeks. Accordingly I can't think of a single reason why the Conservatives wouldn't want Theresa May to lead them into the next general election.JennyFreeman said:TM shouldn't be underestimated. She won't be going anywhere for some time.
My money would be on her leading the Conservatives into the next election. And, unless they fail to learn from the idiocy of their last campaign, there's an interesting punt to be had on them winning outright.
And, yes, toxic is a very silly choice of word.
Shocking I know, but there it is.0 -
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.0 -
Not a totally pointless GE then.
It's emasculated Sturgeon and punted IndyRef2 into the long grass. One threat gone to HMG flank.0 -
The local elections suggested otherwise. Sure enough locals =/= generals and they only include parts of the country but the Tories taking the metro mayoralties in West Midlands, Tees Valley, and West of England backed up the 15-20% leads.Casino_Royale said:
True, although perhaps the polls were always wrong (and underweighting Labour).JackW said:
The Prime Minister is such a wonderful campaigner that she turned a landslide into a hung parliament in little more than seven weeks. Accordingly I can't think of a single reason why the Conservatives wouldn't want Theresa May to lead them into the next general election.JennyFreeman said:TM shouldn't be underestimated. She won't be going anywhere for some time.
My money would be on her leading the Conservatives into the next election. And, unless they fail to learn from the idiocy of their last campaign, there's an interesting punt to be had on them winning outright.
And, yes, toxic is a very silly choice of word.
Shocking I know, but there it is.
It's the manifesto what (nearly) lost it.0 -
And that might be great. Less people having "big ideas" and generally screwing things up (cf Mr N Timothy?).logical_song said:
It seems that she was being overestimated before the GE, remember the Battlebus with her name and signature it large lettering. It's possible that it's swung the other way now, I suppose - but I'm not going to bet on it.JennyFreeman said:TM shouldn't be underestimated. She won't be going anywhere for some time.
My money would be on her leading the Conservatives into the next election. And, unless they fail to learn from the idiocy of their last campaign, there's an interesting punt to be had on them winning outright.
And, yes, toxic is a very silly choice of word.
The Tories even with the DUP have a tiny majority. I can't see them getting much done before the next GE apart from Brexit, which they have to do, and the chances of that going wrong are not negligeable.
Didn't Belgium last 13 months without one? Doesn't Texas limit the number of days politicians can sit so they have less time to think up damn fool ideas because they think they need to be seen doing things? Cynical maybe a tad, but a thought.0 -
I know, I'm partly trying to convince myself.Danny565 said:
Thing is though that YouGov (one of the most accurate pollsters by the end of the campaign, and never applied very aggressive turnout weightings) were showing as big a Tory lead as anyone right at the beginning.Casino_Royale said:
True, although perhaps the polls were always wrong (and underweighting Labour).JackW said:
The Prime Minister is such a wonderful campaigner that she turned a landslide into a hung parliament in little more than seven weeks. Accordingly I can't think of a single reason why the Conservatives wouldn't want Theresa May to lead them into the next general election.JennyFreeman said:TM shouldn't be underestimated. She won't be going anywhere for some time.
My money would be on her leading the Conservatives into the next election. And, unless they fail to learn from the idiocy of their last campaign, there's an interesting punt to be had on them winning outright.
And, yes, toxic is a very silly choice of word.
Shocking I know, but there it is.
But then, how did yougov and ICM diverge so much? Presumably they didn't both radically change their methodology over the 6 weeks (although I know yougov got wobbly right at the end, and herded)0 -
Casino_Royale said:
Not a totally pointless GE then.
It's emasculated Sturgeon and punted IndyRef2 into the long grass. One threat gone to HMG flank.
Benefits of election:
* No indyref2
* Focus on Brexit, not the other silly changes they wanted to make
* More inclusive Brexit with all of E&W, Scotland, and NI being part of it.
* Warnings about how Corbyn & co operate (& how effective it can be)
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You'd prefer Miserable May ?JennyFreeman said:
So does turd but that doesn't mean it's appropriate.Nigelb said:IanB2 said:
Toxic doesn't feel like the right word, though. She is just hopeless, and damaged, not poisonous.SirNorfolkPassmore said:MonikerDiCanio said:Toxic Theresa . Sad to see OGH descend into the gutter. This nasty witch hunt has long since become tedious and disgusting.
And it alliterates.
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Yeah, you might be right.welshowl said:
And that might be great. Less people having "big ideas" and generally screwing things up (cf Mr N Timothy?).logical_song said:
It seems that she was being overestimated before the GE, remember the Battlebus with her name and signature it large lettering. It's possible that it's swung the other way now, I suppose - but I'm not going to bet on it.JennyFreeman said:TM shouldn't be underestimated. She won't be going anywhere for some time.
My money would be on her leading the Conservatives into the next election. And, unless they fail to learn from the idiocy of their last campaign, there's an interesting punt to be had on them winning outright.
And, yes, toxic is a very silly choice of word.
The Tories even with the DUP have a tiny majority. I can't see them getting much done before the next GE apart from Brexit, which they have to do, and the chances of that going wrong are not negligeable.
Didn't Belgium last 13 months without one? Doesn't Texas limit the number of days politicians can sit so they have less time to think up damn fool ideas because they think they need to be seen doing things? Cynical maybe a tad, but a thought.0 -
Someone who thinks London is leaving 'Europe':
https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/8797129539851100160 -
I understand why the polling was wrong in most cases but May was found out. She met a perfect storm of an awful campaign topped by a spectacular own goal manifesto and a well seasoned campaigner in Jezza who energized the under 35 vote and offered to end austerity.Casino_Royale said:
True, although perhaps the polls were always wrong (and underweighting Labour).JackW said:
The Prime Minister is such a wonderful campaigner that she turned a landslide into a hung parliament in little more than seven weeks. Accordingly I can't think of a single reason why the Conservatives wouldn't want Theresa May to lead them into the next general election.JennyFreeman said:TM shouldn't be underestimated. She won't be going anywhere for some time.
My money would be on her leading the Conservatives into the next election. And, unless they fail to learn from the idiocy of their last campaign, there's an interesting punt to be had on them winning outright.
And, yes, toxic is a very silly choice of word.
Shocking I know, but there it is.
If Grenfell had happened a week earlier we would be looking at Prime Minister Corbyn and numerous PB Tories on suicide watch.0 -
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:dyedwoolie said:
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_homes_crisis
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted0 -
O/T another Global cyberattack underway. Looks like it is targeting the machines that did not get patched after the last one0
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Larry the Cat.JennyFreeman said:
In the same vein as Basil Fawlty's 'Who won the bloody war anyway?' ... remind me ...TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone on PB had been warning since last summer Theresa May was a pound shop Gordon Brown and such like.MonikerDiCanio said:
PB should be ahead of the pack rather than lamely following it.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
.MonikerDiCanio said:Toxic Theresa . Sad to see OGH descend into the gutter. This nasty witch hunt has long since become tedious and disgusting.
... just who is living in No. 10 Downing St anyway?
In office but not in power.0 -
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Messy. Flammable shit pit living is de rigeurGarethoftheVale2 said:
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:dyedwoolie said:
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_homes_crisis
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted0 -
Errr ....MarkHopkins said:Benefits of election:
* No indyref2
* Focus on Brexit, not the other silly changes they wanted to make
* More inclusive Brexit with all of E&W, Scotland, and NI being part of it.
* Warnings about how Corbyn & co operate (& how effective it can be)
All of those were happening or planed before May's vanity election.0 -
JackW said:
Errr ....MarkHopkins said:Benefits of election:
* No indyref2
* Focus on Brexit, not the other silly changes they wanted to make
* More inclusive Brexit with all of E&W, Scotland, and NI being part of it.
* Warnings about how Corbyn & co operate (& how effective it can be)
All of those were happening or planed before May's vanity election.
Huh? How did we know what Corbyn would be like in the GE before we had the GE ?
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Why did nobody mention this before?
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/879690690074202112
Oh, wait...0 -
Indyref2 now looks much less likely in the near term.JackW said:
Errr ....MarkHopkins said:Benefits of election:
* No indyref2
* Focus on Brexit, not the other silly changes they wanted to make
* More inclusive Brexit with all of E&W, Scotland, and NI being part of it.
* Warnings about how Corbyn & co operate (& how effective it can be)
All of those were happening or planed before May's vanity election.0 -
Am told the pollsters Kantar/TNS are affected too.Scott_P said:0 -
Coral have a next Scottish FM market. Ruth is 3/1. I'm more tempted by Kezia at 8/1. If the SNP really shrink I think they'll lose a lot more of the their voters back to SLab then to SCon.Casino_Royale said:If Sturgeon carries on the way she has, she'll lose power at Holyrood in 2020 with Ruth Davidson as FM of a minority Tory administration, possibly even (shock horror) with Labour support to oust the SNP in a tacit Unionist alliance.
Zoomers will laugh, but no-one thought they'd lose 20 seats three weeks ago.0 -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_76MGIUIAAf-HA.jpgScott_P said:O/T another Global cyberattack underway. Looks like it is targeting the machines that did not get patched after the last one
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Too trueCarlottaVance said:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_76MGIUIAAf-HA.jpgScott_P said:O/T another Global cyberattack underway. Looks like it is targeting the machines that did not get patched after the last one
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You mean you hadn't noticed that Corbyn had reveled in (lost) campaign mode for 35 years and was good at it?MarkHopkins said:JackW said:
Errr ....MarkHopkins said:Benefits of election:
* No indyref2
* Focus on Brexit, not the other silly changes they wanted to make
* More inclusive Brexit with all of E&W, Scotland, and NI being part of it.
* Warnings about how Corbyn & co operate (& how effective it can be)
All of those were happening or planed before May's vanity election.
Huh? How did we know what Corbyn would be like in the GE before we had the GE ?
It's a view.0 -
On topic, the post-election window for her to be ejected has now closed. A deal has been done, rightly or wrongly, with the DUP and that'll now have to be maintained in at least the short term. May is therefore probably safe until into 2018. I disagree with Mike's inference that 'there'll always be a reason not to act' means that the Party won't act. Yes, there'll be reasons not to but we can't guarantee that they'll be clinching reasons.
As for the Toxic Theresa nonsense, sure, her ratings are way poorer than they were two months ago but they're still fairly routine for a sitting PM (although they're not routine for one who's just won an election). And her party did win 13.6m votes: within half a million of the highest total that any party has polled. Indeed, despite losing seats, it did just about win the election. If she's toxic, what does that say about her opponents?0 -
Timber framed houses in the UK had a terrible reputation through the 1980s and 1990s, and for good reasons:GarethoftheVale2 said:
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:dyedwoolie said:
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_homes_crisis
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/3316998/On-the-level-timber-tommyrot.html
They're very common again now, and most of the immediate problems have been ironed out, if built by reputable and careful tradesmen. But it took two decades for the reputation to recover.
Another big up-and-coming scandal will be over cavity insulation in existing homes. A ticking time-bomb.0 -
As a reserved matter Sindy2 was in the hands of Westminster and still is despite the will of the Scottish parliament.RobD said:
Indyref2 now looks much less likely in the near term.JackW said:
Errr ....MarkHopkins said:Benefits of election:
* No indyref2
* Focus on Brexit, not the other silly changes they wanted to make
* More inclusive Brexit with all of E&W, Scotland, and NI being part of it.
* Warnings about how Corbyn & co operate (& how effective it can be)
All of those were happening or planed before May's vanity election.0 -
The dominant view was that Corbyn would crash and burn, maybe taking Labour below 25%. We now know how catastrophically wrong that was.JackW said:
You mean you hadn't noticed that Corbyn had reveled in (lost) campaign mode for 35 years and was good at it?MarkHopkins said:JackW said:
Errr ....MarkHopkins said:Benefits of election:
* No indyref2
* Focus on Brexit, not the other silly changes they wanted to make
* More inclusive Brexit with all of E&W, Scotland, and NI being part of it.
* Warnings about how Corbyn & co operate (& how effective it can be)
All of those were happening or planed before May's vanity election.
Huh? How did we know what Corbyn would be like in the GE before we had the GE ?
It's a view.0 -
I wonder how they mocked that up? They look like the correct fonts.Lucian_Fletcher said:
Is there a TTX emulator somewhere on the 'net, or did they connect an old Acorn machine up to produce it?
(pointless questions JJ asks #435915 of -730 (*))
(*) integer overflow.0 -
Asking for a friend?JosiasJessop said:
I wonder how they mocked that up? They look like the correct fonts.Lucian_Fletcher said:twitter.com/UlsterFryNI/status/879311557515247617
Is there a TTX emulator somewhere on the 'net, or did they connect an old Acorn machine up to produce it?
(pointless questions JJ asks #435915 of -730 (*))
(*) integer overflow.
0 -
JackW said:
You mean you hadn't noticed that Corbyn had reveled in (lost) campaign mode for 35 years and was good at it?MarkHopkins said:JackW said:
Errr ....MarkHopkins said:Benefits of election:
* No indyref2
* Focus on Brexit, not the other silly changes they wanted to make
* More inclusive Brexit with all of E&W, Scotland, and NI being part of it.
* Warnings about how Corbyn & co operate (& how effective it can be)
All of those were happening or planed before May's vanity election.
Huh? How did we know what Corbyn would be like in the GE before we had the GE ?
It's a view.
So you are saying that everyone in the Tory party knew how Corbyn, backed by McDonnell and Milne, would operate? How they would hoover up the undecideds? How they would come close to almost winning?
And knowing all this the Tories choose to have an election anyway?
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I just re-read the bottom (Pages 400 and 402). The satire that some folk come up with on the net is great.JosiasJessop said:
I wonder how they mocked that up? They look like the correct fonts.Lucian_Fletcher said:
Is there a TTX emulator somewhere on the 'net, or did they connect an old Acorn machine up to produce it?
(pointless questions JJ asks #435915 of -730 (*))
(*) integer overflow.0 -
"Another big up-and-coming scandal will be over cavity insulation in existing homes. A ticking time-bomb"JosiasJessop said:
Timber framed houses in the UK had a terrible reputation through the 1980s and 1990s, and for good reasons:GarethoftheVale2 said:
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:dyedwoolie said:
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_homes_crisis
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/3316998/On-the-level-timber-tommyrot.html
They're very common again now, and most of the immediate problems have been ironed out, if built by reputable and careful tradesmen. But it took two decades for the reputation to recover.
Another big up-and-coming scandal will be over cavity insulation in existing homes. A ticking time-bomb.
Is that where they inject stuff into the walls? What is the danger there?0 -
Yes, plenty of emulators out there.JosiasJessop said:
I wonder how they mocked that up? They look like the correct fonts.Lucian_Fletcher said:
Is there a TTX emulator somewhere on the 'net, or did they connect an old Acorn machine up to produce it?
(pointless questions JJ asks #435915 of -730 (*))
(*) integer overflow.
GitHub is, as usual, your friend.0 -
Ahem.RobD said:
Asking for a friend?JosiasJessop said:
I wonder how they mocked that up? They look like the correct fonts.Lucian_Fletcher said:twitter.com/UlsterFryNI/status/879311557515247617
Is there a TTX emulator somewhere on the 'net, or did they connect an old Acorn machine up to produce it?
(pointless questions JJ asks #435915 of -730 (*))
(*) integer overflow.
0 -
Meanwhile, how are we going to contain our excitement about the LibDem and UKIP leadership contests?0
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Edit: CoolnessGeoffM said:
Yes, plenty of emulators out there.JosiasJessop said:
I wonder how they mocked that up? They look like the correct fonts.Lucian_Fletcher said:
Is there a TTX emulator somewhere on the 'net, or did they connect an old Acorn machine up to produce it?
(pointless questions JJ asks #435915 of -730 (*))
(*) integer overflow.
GitHub is, as usual, your friend.
https://mattround.com/jellytext/0 -
On the subject of ransomware... I assume PB servers are safe as they are running MS-DOS?
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We'll just have to try.Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, how are we going to contain our excitement about the LibDem and UKIP leadership contests?
Why is Ukip bothering?0 -
Hammond's speech is really extraordinary when you consider that the message it conveys is that the longer the UK holds out, the stronger the EU's negotiating position becomes.0
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Cavity walls are not there for insulation: they are to prevent damp. Filling them up can create damp problems, especially if care is not taken in the filling.isam said:
"Another big up-and-coming scandal will be over cavity insulation in existing homes. A ticking time-bomb"JosiasJessop said:
Timber framed houses in the UK had a terrible reputation through the 1980s and 1990s, and for good reasons:GarethoftheVale2 said:
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:dyedwoolie said:
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_homes_crisis
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/3316998/On-the-level-timber-tommyrot.html
They're very common again now, and most of the immediate problems have been ironed out, if built by reputable and careful tradesmen. But it took two decades for the reputation to recover.
Another big up-and-coming scandal will be over cavity insulation in existing homes. A ticking time-bomb.
Is that where they inject stuff into the walls? What is the danger there?
There are two main types of insulation:
*) Sheet insulation attached to the outside of the innerskin wall of new builds.
*) Insulation pumped into the cavity of existing houses.
In the case of the former, sheets can fall off, blocking the cavity and allowing water a path between the walls, allowing damp in. In the latter, if the insulation compacts over time, it can allow moisture through and create damp. I expect there to be many more cases of the latter as time goes on. And as the companies providing the service will long have gone out of business, it'll be up to the homeowner or government to pay the bills for removing the stuff.
http://www.askjeff.co.uk/cavity-wall-fill/0 -
does that matter in the internet age? Or do they not have it there?Lucian_Fletcher said:0 -
Och aye tha noo, everyone.0
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Oh cheers. My mum was worrying about this yesterday, although she was more concerned the house might burn down! Their house was built in 1979 so maybe its okJosiasJessop said:
Cavity walls are not there for insulation: they are to prevent damp. Filling them up can create damp problems, especially if care is not taken in the filling.isam said:
"Another big up-and-coming scandal will be over cavity insulation in existing homes. A ticking time-bomb"JosiasJessop said:
They're very common again now, and most of the immediate problems have been ironed out, if built by reputable and careful tradesmen. But it took two decades for the reputation to recover.GarethoftheVale2 said:
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:dyedwoolie said:
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_homes_crisis
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted
Another big up-and-coming scandal will be over cavity insulation in existing homes. A ticking time-bomb.
Is that where they inject stuff into the walls? What is the danger there?
There are two main types of insulation:
*) Sheet insulation attached to the outside of the innerskin wall of new builds.
*) Insulation pumped into the cavity of existing houses.
In the case of the former, sheets can fall off, blocking the cavity and allowing water a path between the walls, allowing damp in. In the latter, if the insulation compacts over time, it can allow moisture through and create damp. I expect there to be many more cases of the latter as time goes on. And as the companies providing the service will long have gone out of business, it'll be up to the homeowner or government to pay the bills for removing the stuff.
http://www.askjeff.co.uk/cavity-wall-fill/0 -
I'm saying the fact that Corbyn was a good campaigner was widely known and that the Tories believed that this single ace would be trumped by their three aces of "strong and stable", "coalition of chaos" and "enough is enough".MarkHopkins said:JackW said:
You mean you hadn't noticed that Corbyn had reveled in (lost) campaign mode for 35 years and was good at it?MarkHopkins said:JackW said:
Errr ....MarkHopkins said:Benefits of election:
* No indyref2
* Focus on Brexit, not the other silly changes they wanted to make
* More inclusive Brexit with all of E&W, Scotland, and NI being part of it.
* Warnings about how Corbyn & co operate (& how effective it can be)
All of those were happening or planed before May's vanity election.
Huh? How did we know what Corbyn would be like in the GE before we had the GE ?
It's a view.
So you are saying that everyone in the Tory party knew how Corbyn, backed by McDonnell and Milne, would operate? How they would hoover up the undecideds? How they would come close to almost winning?
And knowing all this the Tories choose to have an election anyway?
Lynton Crosby warned against an early election and was ignored and the rest is, as they say, a hung parliament.0 -
Tim_B said:
does that matter in the internet age? Or do they not have it there?Lucian_Fletcher said:
It's a 'joke'.
Ceefax closed down (for everyone) in 2012.
0 -
It's ok. We're not idiots like the New Zealanders.dyedwoolie said:
Messy. Flammable shit pit living is de rigeurGarethoftheVale2 said:
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:dyedwoolie said:
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_homes_crisis
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted
We'd never be so stupid as to privatise building contr...... ooooohhh, shit.
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Ah thanks. It might be time to relive some of my youth.GeoffM said:
Yes, plenty of emulators out there.JosiasJessop said:
I wonder how they mocked that up? They look like the correct fonts.Lucian_Fletcher said:
Is there a TTX emulator somewhere on the 'net, or did they connect an old Acorn machine up to produce it?
(pointless questions JJ asks #435915 of -730 (*))
(*) integer overflow.
GitHub is, as usual, your friend.0 -
You mean between "Strong And Cable" and "Enough is Enough of Nigel"?Richard_Nabavi said:Meanwhile, how are we going to contain our excitement about the LibDem and UKIP leadership contests?
0 -
Just had an interesting conversation with a Corbyn loyalist. Last time we met we argued.
An MP I know had just resigned from Labour's front bench because Corbyn was crap and she thought he was the best leader they had ever had.
Looking like an escapee from Greenham Common I congratulated her on being right and apologised for doubting her.
....Well on the left things change very fast! She spurned my congratulations and said McDonnell was now destroying the party by doing a volte face on public services and resiling from their position on Europe.
It's her belief that the youth vote is not the happy clappy hippies we saw at Glastonbury. Being a serious activist she has her ear closer to the ground than I do so things on the left might be more interesting than they look0 -
Privatising what?Pong said:
At least we didn't do something as stupid as privatising building contr...... ooooohhh, shit.dyedwoolie said:
Messy. Flammable shit pit living is de rigeurGarethoftheVale2 said:
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:dyedwoolie said:
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_homes_crisis
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted0 -
It's in the UK's firm interest to move as quickly as possible to a position that is as near as possible to what we have already. Of course it would be better not to move at all, but we voted against that...williamglenn said:Hammond's speech is really extraordinary when you consider that the message it conveys is that the longer the UK holds out, the stronger the EU's negotiating position becomes.
0 -
She did realise that labours position was 'effectively' the same as the tories, didn't she?Roger said:
....Well on the left things change very fast! She spurned my congratulations and said McDonnell was now destroying the party by doing a volte face on public services and resiling from their position on Europe.0 -
Building Control.RobD said:
Privatising what?Pong said:
At least we didn't do something as stupid as privatising building contr...... ooooohhh, shit.dyedwoolie said:
Messy. Flammable shit pit living is de rigeurGarethoftheVale2 said:
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:dyedwoolie said:
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_homes_crisis
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted
Hopefully the plans to do the same with Planning Control are now shelved.0 -
I've found a drawback to living in the US - not knowing ceefax is deadMarkHopkins said:Tim_B said:
does that matter in the internet age? Or do they not have it there?Lucian_Fletcher said:
It's a 'joke'.
Ceefax closed down (for everyone) in 2012. 0 -
It is I never thought Corbyn could do as well as he did.However I should have noted that he got a really good reception when he visited flood victims in York in Dec 2015.A work colleague of mine who was flooded said to me that he spent lots of time with his family and their neighbours on his visit and he was impressed .I walked through York city centre in May meeting a friend for a coffee and the crowd was huge as Corbyn was holding a rally.For the first time ever in York Outer, I had a Labour canvasser at my door.I took my daughter to vote in York Central there was a queue in 2015 it was empty .Yet I took none of this as evidence and still thought the election was a foregone conclusion.The Labour majority in York central was huge and in York Outer Labour got 21000 the Conservatives got 25000 , Labour normally get 8000.The change is dramatic but I preferred to believe the commentators on here and the polls.As everyone said the worst poll for Labour will be the correct one.I give Corbyn his due he changed the perceived wisdom , I was wrong and my young daughters who were enthused were correct things can change and he changed them.JackW said:
You mean you hadn't noticed that Corbyn had reveled in (lost) campaign mode for 35 years and was good at it?MarkHopkins said:JackW said:
Errr ....MarkHopkins said:Benefits of election:
* No indyref2
* Focus on Brexit, not the other silly changes they wanted to make
* More inclusive Brexit with all of E&W, Scotland, and NI being part of it.
* Warnings about how Corbyn & co operate (& how effective it can be)
All of those were happening or planed before May's vanity election.
Huh? How did we know what Corbyn would be like in the GE before we had the GE ?
It's a view.0 -
I cannot agree that the response to May has been pathetic thus far. Until they secure themselves inasmuch as possible as the government again, it is riskier to jettison her immediately, even if it means she will get a year or more before they can oust her properly.0
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I think she's not up to it, but some people seem to have a very personal kind of dislike for her..IanB2 said:
Toxic doesn't feel like the right word, though. She is just hopeless, and damaged, not poisonous.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
OGH's name-calling has more than a dash of truth to it, though. When she was a big net benefit to her party in the months after her elevation, he acknowledged that. But you need to be blind not to see that she ran a terrible campaign, has trashed her "strong and stable" reputation, and has become toxic.MonikerDiCanio said:Toxic Theresa . Sad to see OGH descend into the gutter. This nasty witch hunt has long since become tedious and disgusting.
You might think the widespread public impression of May, and the fact it has fallen so far and so fast is unfair, and she's actually jolly nice. Perhaps you're right. But you can't seriously demand that people pretend it isn't happening on a betting website.0 -
Oh, the planning system? Sorry, was unfamiliar with that term.CornishBlue said:
Building Control.RobD said:
Privatising what?Pong said:
At least we didn't do something as stupid as privatising building contr...... ooooohhh, shit.dyedwoolie said:
Messy. Flammable shit pit living is de rigeurGarethoftheVale2 said:
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:dyedwoolie said:
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_homes_crisis
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted
Hopefully the plans to do the same with Planning Control are now shelved.0 -
Mr. Roger, interesting anecdote.
Mr. P, she's in danger of finding the reverse is also true.0 -
Under normal circumstances, but Brexit negotiations mean circumstances are far from normal. There are eight quarters from triggering Article 50 to either a deal or Hard Brexit. May has frittered one away on a failed gamble. Her colleagues really aren't in a good position to p1ss three or four more up the wall umming and erring over whether and when to ditch May if they also want to negotiate a face-saving deal.kle4 said:I cannot agree that the response to May has been pathetic thus far. Until they secure themselves inasmuch as possible as the government again, it is riskier to jettison her immediately, even if it means she will get a year or more before they can oust her properly.
0 -
The difference was recently explained to me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I had him down as more of a bounder.MonikerDiCanio said:
I think it would be difficult to express the contempt to which your hero Osborne is held within genuine conservative circles. The man's a cad.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone on PB had been warning since last summer Theresa May was a pound shop Gordon Brown and such like.MonikerDiCanio said:
PB should be ahead of the pack rather than lamely following it.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
OGH's name-calling has more than a dash of truth to it, though. When she was a big net benefit to her party in the months after her elevation, he acknowledged that. But you need to be blind not to see that she ran a terrible campaign, has trashed her "strong and stable" reputation, and has become toxic.MonikerDiCanio said:Toxic Theresa . Sad to see OGH descend into the gutter. This nasty witch hunt has long since become tedious and disgusting.
You might think the widespread public impression of May, and the fact it has fallen so far and so fast is unfair, and she's actually jolly nice. Perhaps you're right. But you can't seriously demand that people pretend it isn't happening on a betting website.
A bounder would fight like a lion on the battlefield, and then seduce his Colonel's wife, when home on leave.
A cad would avoid the fighting, steal other mens' credit, and then seduce his Colonel's wife.0 -
I can't answer that because I don't know Labour's position on Europe but she was a steadfast Remainer so I assume Labour were but now aren'tSlackbladder said:
She did realise that labours position was 'effectively' the same as the tories, didn't she?Roger said:
....Well on the left things change very fast! She spurned my congratulations and said McDonnell was now destroying the party by doing a volte face on public services and resiling from their position on Europe.0 -
The under 35 vote was the most astonishing aspect of the election. The great unwashed youth and those desperate to be nearer their salad days than middle age actually bothered to vote. The BREXIT vote helped to mobilize them to believe that exercising their franchise actually mattered.Yorkcity said:I never thought Corbyn could do as well as he did.However I should have noted that he got a really good reception when he visited flood victims in York in Dec 2015.A work colleague of mine who was flooded said to me that he spent lots of time with his family and their neighbours on his visit and he was impressed .I walked through York city centre in May meeting a friend for a coffee and the crowd was huge as Corbyn was holding a rally.For the first time ever in York Outer, I had a Labour canvasser at my door.I took my daughter to vote in York Central there was a queue in 2015 it was empty .Yet I took none of this as evidence and still thought the election was a foregone conclusion.The Labour majority in York central was huge and in York Outer Labour got 21000 the Conservatives got 25000 , Labour normally get 8000.The change is dramatic but I preferred to believe the commentators on here and the polls.As everyone said the worst poll for Labour will be the correct one.I give Corbyn his due he changed the perceived wisdom , I was wrong and my young daughters who were enthused were correct things can change and he changed them.
0 -
"For a party that has a reputation for knifing failed leaders the Tories have been pretty pathetic so far with Theresa May."
Mike drops mic.0 -
I thought David Davis was quite good on civil liberties - seems it's no longer the case.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/06/civil-liberties-david-davis-has-become-complete-hypocrite-and-im-not-sure-he0 -
It's blackly funny that some young well-off EU philes haven't realised they were voting for someone who wants to leave the EU to achieve radical socialism in the UK.Roger said:Just had an interesting conversation with a Corbyn loyalist. Last time we met we argued.
An MP I know had just resigned from Labour's front bench because Corbyn was crap and she thought he was the best leader they had ever had.
Looking like an escapee from Greenham Common I congratulated her on being right and apologised for doubting her.
....Well on the left things change very fast! She spurned my congratulations and said McDonnell was now destroying the party by doing a volte face on public services and resiling from their position on Europe.
It's her belief that the youth vote is not the happy clappy hippies we saw at Glastonbury. Being a serious activist she has her ear closer to the ground than I do so things on the left might be more interesting than they look0 -
Which possibly says more about them than her....Sean_F said:
some people seem to have a very personal kind of dislike for her..IanB2 said:
Toxic doesn't feel like the right word, though. She is just hopeless, and damaged, not poisonous.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
OGH's name-calling has more than a dash of truth to it, though. When she was a big net benefit to her party in the months after her elevation, he acknowledged that. But you need to be blind not to see that she ran a terrible campaign, has trashed her "strong and stable" reputation, and has become toxic.MonikerDiCanio said:Toxic Theresa . Sad to see OGH descend into the gutter. This nasty witch hunt has long since become tedious and disgusting.
You might think the widespread public impression of May, and the fact it has fallen so far and so fast is unfair, and she's actually jolly nice. Perhaps you're right. But you can't seriously demand that people pretend it isn't happening on a betting website.
0 -
They do someone on here said she looked 70 . I thought one it was harsh and definitely uncalled for.Sean_F said:
I think she's not up to it, but some people seem to have a very personal kind of dislike for her..IanB2 said:
Toxic doesn't feel like the right word, though. She is just hopeless, and damaged, not poisonous.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
OGH's name-calling has more than a dash of truth to it, though. When she was a big net benefit to her party in the months after her elevation, he acknowledged that. But you need to be blind not to see that she ran a terrible campaign, has trashed her "strong and stable" reputation, and has become toxic.MonikerDiCanio said:Toxic Theresa . Sad to see OGH descend into the gutter. This nasty witch hunt has long since become tedious and disgusting.
You might think the widespread public impression of May, and the fact it has fallen so far and so fast is unfair, and she's actually jolly nice. Perhaps you're right. But you can't seriously demand that people pretend it isn't happening on a betting website.0 -
Think there might be about to be a Lib Dem leadership announcement of some form0
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If the best the Tories can do is to win 330 seats, then perhaps their problems run deeper than finding the right leader.0
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There are always some people who have a strong dislike for a politician, for whatever reason.Sean_F said:
I think she's not up to it, but some people seem to have a very personal kind of dislike for her..IanB2 said:
Toxic doesn't feel like the right word, though. She is just hopeless, and damaged, not poisonous.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
OGH's name-calling has more than a dash of truth to it, though. When she was a big net benefit to her party in the months after her elevation, he acknowledged that. But you need to be blind not to see that she ran a terrible campaign, has trashed her "strong and stable" reputation, and has become toxic.MonikerDiCanio said:Toxic Theresa . Sad to see OGH descend into the gutter. This nasty witch hunt has long since become tedious and disgusting.
You might think the widespread public impression of May, and the fact it has fallen so far and so fast is unfair, and she's actually jolly nice. Perhaps you're right. But you can't seriously demand that people pretend it isn't happening on a betting website.
TMay's latest favourability rating was -34, which is pretty poor and 13 points worse than the Conservative Party but it's not abnormally low. I agree that 'toxic' is too strong a word though.0 -
0
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Building Control and Planning Control are separate regimes. The latter remains entirely public.RobD said:
Oh, the planning system? Sorry, was unfamiliar with that term.CornishBlue said:
Building Control.RobD said:
Privatising what?Pong said:
At least we didn't do something as stupid as privatising building contr...... ooooohhh, shit.dyedwoolie said:
Messy. Flammable shit pit living is de rigeurGarethoftheVale2 said:
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:dyedwoolie said:
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/bbcscotlandnews/status/878284670093344768dyedwoolie said:It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced?
Utter chaos incoming.
It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaky_homes_crisis
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted
Hopefully the plans to do the same with Planning Control are now shelved.0 -
Guido reporting only Sir Vince is standing.....0
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Was a PB exclusive for 5 mins. Ed Davey is NOT running.tpfkar said:Think there might be about to be a Lib Dem leadership announcement of some form
Looks like Vince Cable uncontested unless a new MP goes for it. Layla Moran is the only one I could possibly imagine (she's said she wants a contest) but looks like that's it and no membership ballot needed.0 -
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NOP_k2noty8igdiXEYp8oVsqThVpImJY5lR7B6LN8j0/editJosiasJessop said:
I wonder how they mocked that up? They look like the correct fonts.Lucian_Fletcher said:
Is there a TTX emulator somewhere on the 'net, or did they connect an old Acorn machine up to produce it?
(pointless questions JJ asks #435915 of -730 (*))
(*) integer overflow.0 -
Breaking on 5 News
German tower block evacuated due to same cladding0 -
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Cold we make up our mind on if Sturgeon as done an embarrassing U-Turn or has made no change in IndyRef plans.
It's hard to keep up with the quantum waveform that currently exists.0
