Think there might be about to be a Lib Dem leadership announcement of some form
Was a PB exclusive for 5 mins. Ed Davey is NOT running.
Looks like Vince Cable uncontested unless a new MP goes for it. Layla Moran is the only one I could possibly imagine (she's said she wants a contest) but looks like that's it and no membership ballot needed.
Wera Hobhouse or Tom Brake are further possibilities. I think there will be a contest. Nominations do not close until 20 July.
I'd like Wera to stand because she has an awesome name.
I'd like Wera to stand too because my Cable bet doesn't come good without a contested election. I guess I have also lost my stake on Davey - sod it!
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
Movement in 2015 and 2017 suggests the latter. There is a WWC, kipper, socially neutral, work focused JAM vote to Hoover up. They are lost imo to liberal London.
But for all that much of the white working-class might have Kipperish tendencies on social issues, they still often have a traditional Labour view on economics and public services - especially the more North you go.
One of my Labour activist friends has another theory.
Those voters stuck with Labour to stop Labour getting wiped out.
Had the polls been more accurate, Labour might have been screwed.
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
Movement in 2015 and 2017 suggests the latter. There is a WWC, kipper, socially neutral, work focused JAM vote to Hoover up. They are lost imo to liberal London.
But for all that much of the white working-class might have Kipperish tendencies on social issues, they still often have a traditional Labour view on economics and public services - especially the more North you go.
It's also not unreasonable to suggest that this group might not have exactly welcomed the continuance of austerity either. It may be the case that economic issues are more of a decisive factor in how people vote than social issues with immigration being the exception.
I think this stuff about the "class divide" in politics being dead, and being Labour being solely a middle-class party, is overdone.
Remember that Labour still hold the vast majority of more deprived seats, with North Korean-sized majorities across much of the North and South Wales. And the Tories still have very comfortable majorities in most of the very affluent seats outside of London.
Similarly, with just three words in her 2016 party conference speech – “citizens of nowhere” – May undid 11 years of good work among affluent ethnic minorities by David Cameron, who worked to reassure Britain’s ethnic middle classes that their interests were better served by voting with their economic interests, rather than against a Conservative Party still defined in the minds of many by Enoch Powell.
Why can't 'ethnic minorities' be citizens of somewhere (eg Britain) and indeed welcomed and encouraged to become so?
The people May called 'Citizens of nowhere' were corporates who didn't pay tax weren't they?
They were supposedly the kind of people who run such corporations and don't treat their staff properly because they don't have a stake in the community. Apart from being a caricature - I have worked for both kinds of companies and was better treated by the nowhere one than the somewhere one - it seems an emphatic rejection of globalisation and foreign investment in the UK. It's probably not worth interpreting Theresa May's gameplay. She's never had one.
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
Movement in 2015 and 2017 suggests the latter. There is a WWC, kipper, socially neutral, work focused JAM vote to Hoover up. They are lost imo to liberal London.
But for all that much of the white working-class might have Kipperish tendencies on social issues, they still often have a traditional Labour view on economics and public services - especially the more North you go.
One of my Labour activist friends has another theory.
Those voters stuck with Labour to stop Labour getting wiped out.
Had the polls been more accurate, Labour might have been screwed.
Think there might be about to be a Lib Dem leadership announcement of some form
Was a PB exclusive for 5 mins. Ed Davey is NOT running.
Looks like Vince Cable uncontested unless a new MP goes for it. Layla Moran is the only one I could possibly imagine (she's said she wants a contest) but looks like that's it and no membership ballot needed.
Wera Hobhouse or Tom Brake are further possibilities. I think there will be a contest. Nominations do not close until 20 July.
I'd like Wera to stand because she has an awesome name.
I'd like Wera to stand too because my Cable bet doesn't come good without a contested election. I guess I have also lost my stake on Davey - sod it!
Eh ?
Surely either both are void or Cable will be a winner, and Davey a loser ?
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
The second in the short term. Both in the long term.
Europhile liberals are and will remain angry at the British public for voting for Brexit for a decade. But they can not take their anger out on the British public, so they will instead take it out on the Conservatives for implementing the result.
What we can do is to remain internationalist in every way except for EU membership and most immigration. We should be pro-trade, pro-development, pro-international military alliances, pro-business and pro-high skilled immigration. Once the Brexit anger subsides, they will compare that to the protectionism and violence on the left.
Only change I can see Sturgeon has made is ceasing work on the preparation for legislation for a referendum.
At the very least, if there is a demand for IndyRef2-and there is much more demand than the MSM and certain posters here like to pretend-it will be as easy for Sturgeon to make the 2021 Holyrood election about a referendum as it was for Davidson to make GE 2017 about not having one.
I do hope the unionists continue to be complacent. It nearly did for them last time, and I expect it will do for them next time.
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
+1
Conservative have to regain an air of competence in the context of appearing to both end austerity whilst actually economically not doing it and contend with the inevitable uncertainty of BREXIT and the crisis hitting the NHS, social care, education and the ongoing security difficulties having cut 20,000 police officers.
And then there's events dear boy events .... Grenfell ....
Did someone mention a lame duck Prime Minister and her friends in the DUP and their bung ?
Only change I can see Sturgeon has made is ceasing work on the preparation for legislation for a referendum.
At the very least, if there is a demand for IndyRef2-and there is much more demand than the MSM and certain posters here like to pretend-it will be as easy for Sturgeon to make the 2021 Holyrood election about a referendum as it was for Davidson to make GE 2017 about not having one.
I do hope the unionists continue to be complacent. It nearly did for them last time, and I expect it will do for them next time.
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
+1
Conservative have to regain an air of competence in the context of appearing to both end austerity whilst actually economically not doing it and contend with the inevitable uncertainty of BREXIT and the crisis hitting the NHS, social care, education and the ongoing security difficulties having cut 20,000 police officers.
And then there's events dear boy events .... Grenfell ....
Did someone mention a lame duck Prime Minister and her friends in the DUP and their bung ?
Similarly, with just three words in her 2016 party conference speech – “citizens of nowhere” – May undid 11 years of good work among affluent ethnic minorities by David Cameron, who worked to reassure Britain’s ethnic middle classes that their interests were better served by voting with their economic interests, rather than against a Conservative Party still defined in the minds of many by Enoch Powell.
Why can't 'ethnic minorities' be citizens of somewhere (eg Britain) and indeed welcomed and encouraged to become so?
The people May called 'Citizens of nowhere' were corporates who didn't pay tax weren't they?
They were supposedly the kind of people who run such corporations and don't treat their staff properly because they don't have a stake in the community. Apart from being a caricature - I have worked for both kinds of companies and was better treated by the nowhere one than the somewhere one - it seems an emphatic rejection of globalisation and foreign investment in the UK. It's probably not worth interpreting Theresa May's gameplay. She's never had one.
What we can say with certainty; like her or not you'd have to be spectacularly dumb to think she was stigmatising ethnic minorities.
Carlotta's chart shows pretty good support for the Conservatives, overall, in big urban areas. But, that masks very strong support in some urban areas, and very dire results in others.
It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced? Utter chaos incoming.
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point. It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
This could easily go the way of the leaky homes scandal in New Zealand:
The cost is so great that it could effect NZ's credit rating. Essentially the Government won't be able to pay for all the repairs.
Building codes are now very strict in NZ but, of course, it has been a case of shutting the gate after the horse has bolted
Messy. Flammable shit pit living is de rigeur
Privatising what?
Building Control.
Hopefully the plans to do the same with Planning Control are now shelved.
Oh, the planning system? Sorry, was unfamiliar with that term.
Building Control and Planning Control are separate regimes. The latter remains entirely public.
I have yet to see any evidence that the Grenfell fire was anything to do with private Building Control services being available.
The best information I have is that the Building Control was by the Council, but that they possibly switched to working under a Building Notice (*) during the project. This is from reading the detailed planning documents and records.
Suspect that the stuff about "privatisation of bulding control" is as relevant as the attempted (and fake) narrative about a fire in a Council owned, essentially Council / tenant run, building saying something about private landlords.
Nor do I think that there is much comparison with the NZ leaky house history - airtightness and watertightness are far more fundamental that External Wall Insulation or cladding.
* - look this up. Life is too short to describe a Building Notice here.
My professional experience is that building control in England is weak and can easily be circumnavigated because you can self-certify or get certification from frankly openly dodgy building inspection services.
TM shouldn't be underestimated. She won't be going anywhere for some time.
My money would be on her leading the Conservatives into the next election. And, unless they fail to learn from the idiocy of their last campaign, there's an interesting punt to be had on them winning outright.
And, yes, toxic is a very silly choice of word.
It seems that she was being overestimated before the GE, remember the Battlebus with her name and signature it large lettering. It's possible that it's swung the other way now, I suppose - but I'm not going to bet on it. The Tories even with the DUP have a tiny majority. I can't see them getting much done before the next GE apart from Brexit, which they have to do, and the chances of that going wrong are not negligeable.
And that might be great. Less people having "big ideas" and generally screwing things up (cf Mr N Timothy?).
Didn't Belgium last 13 months without one? Doesn't Texas limit the number of days politicians can sit so they have less time to think up damn fool ideas because they think they need to be seen doing things? Cynical maybe a tad, but a thought.
Belgium and Texas are hardly models of good governance.
I think TM will probably restore her popularity to a degree through the hard slog of governing. Normally incumbents fall in popularity but the current political situation is different.
I would be very suprised if she wanted to fight the next election and astonished if she were allowed to unless unexpected events force one in the next 12 months, even then she might well stand aside.
It wasn't long ago that there were lots of articles proclaiming the death of Labour and the Tories in power for a generation. Now there are plenty of articles arguing the opposite. Most commentators fall into the futurologist trap of extrapolating current trends and ending up with a prediction that turns out to be daft. What is interesting is the deep fault lines in Tories, Labour and Lib Dems so perhaps major re-alignments will occur. On the other hand that prediction is made periodically.
Think there might be about to be a Lib Dem leadership announcement of some form
Was a PB exclusive for 5 mins. Ed Davey is NOT running.
Looks like Vince Cable uncontested unless a new MP goes for it. Layla Moran is the only one I could possibly imagine (she's said she wants a contest) but looks like that's it and no membership ballot needed.
Wera Hobhouse or Tom Brake are further possibilities. I think there will be a contest. Nominations do not close until 20 July.
I'd like Wera to stand because she has an awesome name.
I'd like Wera to stand too because my Cable bet doesn't come good without a contested election. I guess I have also lost my stake on Davey - sod it!
Eh ?
Surely either both are void or Cable will be a winner, and Davey a loser ?
These were bets to win at a bookies rather than betfair.
I do hope the unionists continue to be complacent. It nearly did for them last time, and I expect it will do for them next time.
Worse than complacency, they are showing signs of hubris.
The idea that the union has been saved as we hurtle into Brexit backed up by a DUP which is openly wishing to prise Ireland out of the EU is ludicrous. It's the charge of the right brigade and will end badly for anyone associated with it.
She is disliked because she is conservative and doesn't want to overturn the electorate's decision on Brexit.
How do you know? Assume you were a PM who wanted to overturn the decision on Brexit. What would you do differently to what May has done so far?
I'd find reasons not to implement Article 50.
That's obvious, isn't it? Whether we Leave is now out of the hands of a theoretical anti-democratic PM.
It's the fact that we remain a democracy that makes Brexit undeliverable. Only a dictator could lead their people down a blind alley for long enough to make it happen.
Triggering Article 50 was the first step to pulling the edifice of Brexit down on top of the people who built it.
Think there might be about to be a Lib Dem leadership announcement of some form
Was a PB exclusive for 5 mins. Ed Davey is NOT running.
Looks like Vince Cable uncontested unless a new MP goes for it. Layla Moran is the only one I could possibly imagine (she's said she wants a contest) but looks like that's it and no membership ballot needed.
Wera Hobhouse or Tom Brake are further possibilities. I think there will be a contest. Nominations do not close until 20 July.
I'd like Wera to stand because she has an awesome name.
I'd like Wera to stand too because my Cable bet doesn't come good without a contested election. I guess I have also lost my stake on Davey - sod it!
Eh ?
Surely either both are void or Cable will be a winner, and Davey a loser ?
These were bets to win at a bookies rather than betfair.
What does each betslip actually say ?
If I'd have had my Gorton bets at a bookies then I'd have taken the slips in to get my cash refunded as the market was obviously void.
Think there might be about to be a Lib Dem leadership announcement of some form
Was a PB exclusive for 5 mins. Ed Davey is NOT running.
Looks like Vince Cable uncontested unless a new MP goes for it. Layla Moran is the only one I could possibly imagine (she's said she wants a contest) but looks like that's it and no membership ballot needed.
Wera Hobhouse or Tom Brake are further possibilities. I think there will be a contest. Nominations do not close until 20 July.
I'd like Wera to stand because she has an awesome name.
She was born in Hanover but married a Brit and is thus I think the second German-born MP ( unless anyone knows any other?)
Well the UK has a good history of when it was led by Hanoverians.
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
Movement in 2015 and 2017 suggests the latter. There is a WWC, kipper, socially neutral, work focused JAM vote to Hoover up. They are lost imo to liberal London.
But for all that much of the white working-class might have Kipperish tendencies on social issues, they still often have a traditional Labour view on economics and public services - especially the more North you go.
One of my Labour activist friends has another theory.
Those voters stuck with Labour to stop Labour getting wiped out.
Had the polls been more accurate, Labour might have been screwed.
There is an element of truth in that. Hence, my fervent call, Vote Labour, We cannot win !
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
It'll be more a case of which if any defensive battle to prioritise. That is, trying not to lose further support from "Europhile liberals" still thoroughly pissed off now that Brexit has happened, while trying not to lose support from newly acquired blue collar voters not exactly happy with what they see to be watered down terms of Brexit and who regardless of that will see little ongoing reason to vote Conservative anyway given that the main pull factor of Brexit is history.
Add to that the background of a country tired of 12 years of increasingly weak Conservative government, if the DUP can be persuaded to make this parliament last that long, and a short term hit to an economy adjusting to a change in markets caused by Brexit.
So at this point the Conservatives' prospects don't look good. It is Labour's to lose, and I think their main enemy now is overconfidence that could lead to a failure to acknowledge the need for an end to internal warring. Southam was spot on about that on his previous thread.
It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced? Utter chaos incoming.
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point. It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
Messy. Flammable shit pit living is de rigeur
Privatising what?
Building Control.
Hopefully the plans to do the same with Planning Control are now shelved.
Oh, the planning system? Sorry, was unfamiliar with that term.
Building Control and Planning Control are separate regimes. The latter remains entirely public.
I have yet to see any evidence that the Grenfell fire was anything to do with private Building Control services being available.
The best information I have is that the Building Control was by the Council, but that they possibly switched to working under a Building Notice (*) during the project. This is from reading the detailed planning documents and records.
Suspect that the stuff about "privatisation of bulding control" is as relevant as the attempted (and fake) narrative about a fire in a Council owned, essentially Council / tenant run, building saying something about private landlords.
Nor do I think that there is much comparison with the NZ leaky house history - airtightness and watertightness are far more fundamental that External Wall Insulation or cladding.
* - look this up. Life is too short to describe a Building Notice here.
My professional experience is that building control in England is weak and can easily be circumnavigated because you can self-certify or get certification from frankly openly dodgy building inspection services.
And do you have evidence that this is relevant to Grenfell? Or Camden?
It's going to be everywhere. This is a huge huge scandal erupting in front of us. And the inevitable inquiry will have to go into all the rest of the construction industry. What else is combustible? What else is going to need to be removed and replaced? Utter chaos incoming.
What cladding was, and will it pass checks. That's more to the point. It will still be everywhere though, if not on every building ever constructed. As the 100% failure rate in 32 authorities demonstrates.
Messy. Flammable shit pit living is de rigeur
Privatising what?
Building Control.
Hopefully the plans to do the same with Planning Control are now shelved.
Oh, the planning system? Sorry, was unfamiliar with that term.
Building Control and Planning Control are separate regimes. The latter remains entirely public.
I have yet to see any evidence that the Grenfell fire was anything to do with private Building Control services being available.
The best information I have is that the Building Control was by the Council, but that they possibly switched to working under a Building Notice (*) during the project. This is from reading the detailed planning documents and records.
Suspect that the stuff about "privatisation of bulding control" is as relevant as the attempted (and fake) narrative about a fire in a Council owned, essentially Council / tenant run, building saying something about private landlords.
Nor do I think that there is much comparison with the NZ leaky house history - airtightness and watertightness are far more fundamental that External Wall Insulation or cladding.
* - look this up. Life is too short to describe a Building Notice here.
My professional experience is that building control in England is weak and can easily be circumnavigated because you can self-certify or get certification from frankly openly dodgy building inspection services.
And do you have evidence that this is relevant to Grenfell? Or Camden?
No. I was making a general remark about building control cf planning control.
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
It'll be more a case of which if any defensive battle to prioritise. That is, trying not to lose further support from "Europhile liberals" still thoroughly pissed off now that Brexit has happened, while trying not to lose support from newly acquired blue collar voters not exactly happy with what they see to be watered down terms of Brexit and who regardless of that will see little ongoing reason to vote Conservative anyway given that the main pull factor of Brexit is history.
Add to that the background of a country tired of 12 years of increasingly weak Conservative government, if the DUP can be persuaded to make this parliament last that long, and a short term hit to an economy adjusting to a change in markets caused by Brexit.
So at this point the Conservatives' prospects don't look good. It is Labour's to lose, and I think their main enemy now is overconfidence that could lead to a failure to acknowledge the need for an end to internal warring. Southam was spot on about that on his previous thread.
It is difficult to see how either of the two parties can increase their vote share by at most a point or two; they are both close to record highs. In which case further direct Tory->Labour switching, or vice versa, appears unlikely, given how polarised they are. The Tories already have all the "never Corbyn" votes and Labour all the "Tories out now" votes. Which makes me wonder whether the actual question is which of them will lose votes to a third party (and which?), enabling the other to win? Or, alternatively, the next election delivers yet another stalemate (balanced parliament, or close to it).
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
Movement in 2015 and 2017 suggests the latter. There is a WWC, kipper, socially neutral, work focused JAM vote to Hoover up. They are lost imo to liberal London.
But for all that much of the white working-class might have Kipperish tendencies on social issues, they still often have a traditional Labour view on economics and public services - especially the more North you go.
One of my Labour activist friends has another theory.
Those voters stuck with Labour to stop Labour getting wiped out.
Had the polls been more accurate, Labour might have been screwed.
There is an element of truth in that. Hence, my fervent call, Vote Labour, We cannot win !
There was a lot in that. Voting Labour this time was akin to a pity fuck....
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
Movement in 2015 and 2017 suggests the latter. There is a WWC, kipper, socially neutral, work focused JAM vote to Hoover up. They are lost imo to liberal London.
But for all that much of the white working-class might have Kipperish tendencies on social issues, they still often have a traditional Labour view on economics and public services - especially the more North you go.
One of my Labour activist friends has another theory.
Those voters stuck with Labour to stop Labour getting wiped out.
Had the polls been more accurate, Labour might have been screwed.
There is an element of truth in that. Hence, my fervent call, Vote Labour, We cannot win !
There was a lot in that. Voting Labour this time was akin to a pity fuck....
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
It'll be more a case of which if any defensive battle to prioritise. That is, trying not to lose further support from "Europhile liberals" still thoroughly pissed off now that Brexit has happened, while trying not to lose support from newly acquired blue collar voters not exactly happy with what they see to be watered down terms of Brexit and who regardless of that will see little ongoing reason to vote Conservative anyway given that the main pull factor of Brexit is history.
Add to that the background of a country tired of 12 years of increasingly weak Conservative government, if the DUP can be persuaded to make this parliament last that long, and a short term hit to an economy adjusting to a change in markets caused by Brexit.
So at this point the Conservatives' prospects don't look good. It is Labour's to lose, and I think their main enemy now is overconfidence that could lead to a failure to acknowledge the need for an end to internal warring. Southam was spot on about that on his previous thread.
It is difficult to see how either of the two parties can increase their vote share by at most a point or two; they are both close to record highs. In which case further direct Tory->Labour switching, or vice versa, appears unlikely, given how polarised they are. The Tories already have all the "never Corbyn" votes and Labour all the "Tories out now" votes. Which makes me wonder whether the actual question is which of them will lose votes to a third party (and which?), enabling the other to win? Or, alternatively, the next election delivers yet another stalemate (balanced parliament, or close to it).
Labour poised to win 17 seats from the SNP and maybe some seats in Cornwall, replacing the Lib Dems as the second party plus the usual marginals.
Senate GOP are delaying the Health Care Bill vote until after the July 4th recess.
Obamacare lives !
Let's not get too excited just yet. But nonetheless, it's very good news indeed. I'm hoping especially that the likes of Collins do not fold like moderates in the House did.
And what a sad comment on the state of the Labour Party that they need to be encouraged to step up to their responsibilities by a rogue Tory backbencher.
Some serious pinhead dancing of those that think Macron is the European Obama.
I'd expect the rentamobs from the UK to head across the channel to put a stop to it led by McDonnell and Corbyn... and Owen Jones. Presumably roger of this parish will be suitably outraged.....
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
It'll be more a case of which if any defensive battle to prioritise. That is, trying not to lose further support from "Europhile liberals" still thoroughly pissed off now that Brexit has happened, while trying not to lose support from newly acquired blue collar voters not exactly happy with what they see to be watered down terms of Brexit and who regardless of that will see little ongoing reason to vote Conservative anyway given that the main pull factor of Brexit is history.
Add to that the background of a country tired of 12 years of increasingly weak Conservative government, if the DUP can be persuaded to make this parliament last that long, and a short term hit to an economy adjusting to a change in markets caused by Brexit.
So at this point the Conservatives' prospects don't look good. It is Labour's to lose, and I think their main enemy now is overconfidence that could lead to a failure to acknowledge the need for an end to internal warring. Southam was spot on about that on his previous thread.
It is difficult to see how either of the two parties can increase their vote share by at most a point or two; they are both close to record highs. In which case further direct Tory->Labour switching, or vice versa, appears unlikely, given how polarised they are. The Tories already have all the "never Corbyn" votes and Labour all the "Tories out now" votes. Which makes me wonder whether the actual question is which of them will lose votes to a third party (and which?), enabling the other to win? Or, alternatively, the next election delivers yet another stalemate (balanced parliament, or close to it).
Labour poised to win 17 seats from the SNP and maybe some seats in Cornwall, replacing the Lib Dems as the second party plus the usual marginals.
You forgot to finish: "...isn't enough to get them to a majority"
Saw this posted here earlier. Guido grasping at straws now. Apparently lefties are falling hook line and sinker for this hilarious satirical book. Closer inspection reveals the only complaint in the reviews is the one he mentions in his post. Everything else is positive. So, 1 lefty was fooled, quite the scoop.
I think this stuff about the "class divide" in politics being dead, and being Labour being solely a middle-class party, is overdone.
Remember that Labour still hold the vast majority of more deprived seats, with North Korean-sized majorities across much of the North and South Wales. And the Tories still have very comfortable majorities in most of the very affluent seats outside of London.
Looking at the NS-SeC socioeconomic categories...
There's a 64 per cent correlation between the share of the population in the top 5 categories and the Conservative vote share per constituency, and a 65 per cent correlation between the share in the bottom 3 categories plus the student category and the Labour vote share per constituency.
Some serious pinhead dancing of those that think Macron is the European Obama.
I'd expect the rentamobs from the UK to head across the channel to put a stop to it led by McDonnell and Corbyn... and Owen Jones. Presumably roger of this parish will be suitably outraged.....
LOL, I didn't know Trump not coming here displeased Conservatives that much.
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
It'll be more a case of which if any defensive battle to prioritise. That is, trying not to lose further support from "Europhile liberals" still thoroughly pissed off now that Brexit has happened, while trying not to lose support from newly acquired blue collar voters not exactly happy with what they see to be watered down terms of Brexit and who regardless of that will see little ongoing reason to vote Conservative anyway given that the main pull factor of Brexit is history.
Add to that the background of a country tired of 12 years of increasingly weak Conservative government, if the DUP can be persuaded to make this parliament last that long, and a short term hit to an economy adjusting to a change in markets caused by Brexit.
So at this point the Conservatives' prospects don't look good. It is Labour's to lose, and I think their main enemy now is overconfidence that could lead to a failure to acknowledge the need for an end to internal warring. Southam was spot on about that on his previous thread.
The problem with that analysis is that it does not take into account the nature of the current leadership of the Labour party. I genuinely believe that Corbyn and McDonell are fanatics and that will become apparent to many who are unaware or have simply discounted attacks from Tories and the Tory press. Arguments that the manifesto is just left social democratic are besides the point as it only a tactic to the leadership and the Momentum core.
And what a sad comment on the state of the Labour Party that they need to be encouraged to step up to their responsibilities by a rogue Tory backbencher.
She should defect to Labour. They deserve her as she is perhaps the worst MP in Parliament.
While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
And what a sad comment on the state of the Labour Party that they need to be encouraged to step up to their responsibilities by a rogue Tory backbencher.
She should defect to Labour. They deserve her as she is perhaps the worst MP in Parliament.
What nonsense! The worst MPs are those lazy ones sitting in impregnable safe FPTnP seats in both of the main parties, who do nothing for either their constituents or their country.
While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
Sadly the LDs will remain mostly irrelevant whilst Sir Vince serves out his two years, before the 'real' leadership election gets to happen. The best we can hope for is that Vince's status and reputation as a minor sage gets us a little more attention in the media meanwhile.
And what a sad comment on the state of the Labour Party that they need to be encouraged to step up to their responsibilities by a rogue Tory backbencher.
She should defect to Labour. They deserve her as she is perhaps the worst MP in Parliament.
What nonsense! The worst MPs are those lazy ones sitting in impregnable safe FPTnP seats in both of the main parties, who do nothing for either their constituents or their country.
Can I nominate David Tredinnick for worst MP in the country. Lives in Sussex, 150 miles from his Leics constituency. A true waste of space.
While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
This is his own explanation:
"Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.
And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.
So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family."
My favourite Tory MP. I was very glad to see that she held on in Broxtowe during GE night.
I agree 100%. She's great. She's my favourite MP of any party - and I say this as a Lib Dem member. For me, the brief interview with her on the BBC results show was the most memorable moment of election night.
I don't know what the best strategy is for the Conservatives. Try to win back europhile liberals, in places like Battersea, Southgate, and Kensington? Or have such seats just gone the same way as Glasgow Hillhead, Manchester Withington, and Leeds NE and NW did, a generation ago? In which case, do they double down trying to win blue collar voters in places like Ashfield, Dudley North, Grimsby, in the same way Trump did?
Movement in 2015 and 2017 suggests the latter. There is a WWC, kipper, socially neutral, work focused JAM vote to Hoover up. They are lost imo to liberal London.
But for all that much of the white working-class might have Kipperish tendencies on social issues, they still often have a traditional Labour view on economics and public services - especially the more North you go.
One of my Labour activist friends has another theory.
Those voters stuck with Labour to stop Labour getting wiped out.
Had the polls been more accurate, Labour might have been screwed.
There is an element of truth in that. Hence, my fervent call, Vote Labour, We cannot win !
There was a lot in that. Voting Labour this time was akin to a pity fuck....
I always thought the phrase was a "charity shag". I've learnt something.
While OGH likes harping on about the Tories leadership shortcomings I am not particularly impressed by lily livered Lib Dems failing to take on the not very Liberal Cable. Someone like Davey a former cabinet minister aged 51 should jump at the chance. Perhaps he see no future in it and talk of an impending new centrist party perhaps is a bit more than just talk.
This is his own explanation:
"Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.
And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.
So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family."
Bless him.
Best wishes to him and his family. His decision is totally understandable.
Comments
Thank you Mrs May, you're not all that bad.
Those voters stuck with Labour to stop Labour getting wiped out.
Had the polls been more accurate, Labour might have been screwed.
Remember that Labour still hold the vast majority of more deprived seats, with North Korean-sized majorities across much of the North and South Wales. And the Tories still have very comfortable majorities in most of the very affluent seats outside of London.
Surely either both are void or Cable will be a winner, and Davey a loser ?
At the very least, if there is a demand for IndyRef2-and there is much more demand than the MSM and certain posters here like to pretend-it will be as easy for Sturgeon to make the 2021 Holyrood election about a referendum as it was for Davidson to make GE 2017 about not having one.
I do hope the unionists continue to be complacent. It nearly did for them last time, and I expect it will do for them next time.
Conservative have to regain an air of competence in the context of appearing to both end austerity whilst actually economically not doing it and contend with the inevitable uncertainty of BREXIT and the crisis hitting the NHS, social care, education and the ongoing security difficulties having cut 20,000 police officers.
And then there's events dear boy events .... Grenfell ....
Did someone mention a lame duck Prime Minister and her friends in the DUP and their bung ?
Oh well ....
I would be very suprised if she wanted to fight the next election and astonished if she were allowed to unless unexpected events force one in the next 12 months, even then she might well stand aside.
It wasn't long ago that there were lots of articles proclaiming the death of Labour and the Tories in power for a generation. Now there are plenty of articles arguing the opposite. Most commentators fall into the futurologist trap of extrapolating current trends and ending up with a prediction that turns out to be daft. What is interesting is the deep fault lines in Tories, Labour and Lib Dems so perhaps major re-alignments will occur. On the other hand that prediction is made periodically.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2017/05/30/which_world_leader_resisted_donald_trump_s_weird_handshake_the_best.html
The idea that the union has been saved as we hurtle into Brexit backed up by a DUP which is openly wishing to prise Ireland out of the EU is ludicrous. It's the charge of the right brigade and will end badly for anyone associated with it.
Any particular topics you want me to cover?
Obviously numerous threads on the awesomeness of AV and Theresa May have already been written.
Triggering Article 50 was the first step to pulling the edifice of Brexit down on top of the people who built it.
If I'd have had my Gorton bets at a bookies then I'd have taken the slips in to get my cash refunded as the market was obviously void.
Though I suspect Mrs Leadsome would not have called a snap election.
Don't think so. I have to say I've never seen Trudeau as identical to Obama, and I like both.
Bloody Europeans, coming over here and taking our jobs for centuries.
Add to that the background of a country tired of 12 years of increasingly weak Conservative government, if the DUP can be persuaded to make this parliament last that long, and a short term hit to an economy adjusting to a change in markets caused by Brexit.
So at this point the Conservatives' prospects don't look good. It is Labour's to lose, and I think their main enemy now is overconfidence that could lead to a failure to acknowledge the need for an end to internal warring. Southam was spot on about that on his previous thread.
Republicans delay Senate vote on health care.
Ho, ho, ho.
See point 4)
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
Amazingly he can't get the votes from the wing who thinks the bill doesn't screw the poor enough.
And what a sad comment on the state of the Labour Party that they need to be encouraged to step up to their responsibilities by a rogue Tory backbencher.
Saw this posted here earlier. Guido grasping at straws now. Apparently lefties are falling hook line and sinker for this hilarious satirical book. Closer inspection reveals the only complaint in the reviews is the one he mentions in his post. Everything else is positive. So, 1 lefty was fooled, quite the scoop.
There's a 64 per cent correlation between the share of the population in the top 5 categories and the Conservative vote share per constituency, and a 65 per cent correlation between the share in the bottom 3 categories plus the student category and the Labour vote share per constituency.
My favourite Tory MP. I was very glad to see that she held on in Broxtowe during GE night.
All the best Tories are really LibDems who put career before principle.
"Our joy this weekend was seeing our two children play together. And when you understand that John (aged 9) is severely disabled, you will appreciate that seeing our 3 year old daughter make him laugh is quite special.
And if it helps explain my decision not to run just a little more, please remember that my father died when I was 4 and my mother when I was 15. Being there for my children over the next few crucial years and to see those special moments is my personal priority.
So my decision not to stand now to be Leader of our party is a difficult one, but it is rooted in my family."
Best wishes to him and his family. His decision is totally understandable.