politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters continue to rate Tory chances of a majority at more
What’s been one of the intensive weeks of polling since the last election has barely moved the betting markets where Tory chances of securing a majority are rated at more than 23%.
Comments
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Worth adding that despite Richard Nabavi patiently explaining this to everybody, you still seem to get better odds on the individual constituencies Con need for a majority than you'll get on an actual majority.
So if anyone fails to heed Mike's wise advice / statement of the bleeding obvious and insists on betting on the proposition that there's nearly a 1 in 4 chance of the Tories finding a bunch of voters from some mysterious place to make up for the Lib->Lab defectors and getting a bunch more to boot, bet on those instead.0 -
Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th November - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -300
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YouGov
Lots of questions on immigration and Christmas
Only the LDs in favour of past and present immigration and even they believe in residence qualifications before eligibility for benefits.0 -
YouGov are given far too much prominence in political discussions purely because of the frequency with which their polls are published.AndyJS said:
It must be a bit annoying for UKIP that YouGov never quite puts them as high as the likes of Opinium and ComRes.Financier said:Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th November - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -30
The rational punter only considers YouGov findings to be on a par with any other BPC pollster's findings. Indeed, many consider YouGov to be less useful than eg. ICM or IpsosMORI.
It is a great (and frequent) mistake to fixate on one pollster when we have a wealth of other data.
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I'm not sure about "useful". If I had to choose between believing any given ICM and any given YouGov I'd pick the ICM, but having a YouGov poll coming out every day makes it much easier to tell the signal from the noise.Stuart_Dickson said:
YouGov are given far too much prominence in political discussions purely because of the frequency with which their polls are published.AndyJS said:
It must be a bit annoying for UKIP that YouGov never quite puts them as high as the likes of Opinium and ComRes.Financier said:Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th November - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -30
The rational punter only considers YouGov findings to be on a par with any other BPC pollster's findings. Indeed, many consider YouGov to be less useful than eg. ICM or IpsosMORI.
It is a great (and frequent) mistake to fixate on one pollster when we have a wealth of other data.0 -
There are also methodological reasons for YouGov showing a lower UKIP share - which I guess we'll have to wait until 2015 to see whether they produced a more or less accurate result.Stuart_Dickson said:
YouGov are given far too much prominence in political discussions purely because of the frequency with which their polls are published..AndyJS said:
It must be a bit annoying for UKIP that YouGov never quite puts them as high as the likes of Opinium and ComRes.Financier said:Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th November - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -30
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Polls are certainly settling down a bit after the conference season. The Tories will probably take a 6% deficit (YouGov, ComRes, Ipsos Mori) together with low and declining approval of Miliband (-32 in today's YouGov, -4 on the week compared to Cameron on -19 and -1 on the week).0
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My point was not really related to UKIP VI. ***All*** pollster have "house effects", therefore all pollsters ought to be treated with a pinch of salt.CarlottaVance said:
There are also methodological reasons for YouGov showing a lower UKIP share - which I guess we'll have to wait until 2015 to see whether they produced a more or less accurate result.Stuart_Dickson said:
YouGov are given far too much prominence in political discussions purely because of the frequency with which their polls are published..AndyJS said:
It must be a bit annoying for UKIP that YouGov never quite puts them as high as the likes of Opinium and ComRes.Financier said:Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th November - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -30
For example, anybody wanting to get a grip on levels of support for the Scottish National Party would be profoundly unwise to focus solely on the daily YouGov/Murdoch series, as they have the strongest house effect in downweighting SNP voting respondents. Other pollsters perhaps have other problems with their methodology. Rational punters will look at all the available material, over a long time period, and come to a calm conclusion as to the lie of the land.
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YouGov:
Doing well (net)
Cameron: -19 (-1)
Miliband: -32 (-4)
Clegg: -54 (-)
Jack Straw's immigration 'spectacular mistake'
Was: 69 (Lab 62)
Was not: 16
The world is mean to UKIP supporters contd......last week it was cyclists going through red lights, this week it's Christmas stress:
Christmas stressful - net:
Con: -14
Lab: +5
LibD: -14
UKIP : +140 -
I profoundly disagree. YouGov *** IS *** "the noise".edmundintokyo said:
I'm not sure about "useful". If I had to choose between believing any given ICM and any given YouGov I'd pick the ICM, but having a YouGov poll coming out every day makes it much easier to tell the signal from the noise.Stuart_Dickson said:
YouGov are given far too much prominence in political discussions purely because of the frequency with which their polls are published.AndyJS said:
It must be a bit annoying for UKIP that YouGov never quite puts them as high as the likes of Opinium and ComRes.Financier said:Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th November - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -30
The rational punter only considers YouGov findings to be on a par with any other BPC pollster's findings. Indeed, many consider YouGov to be less useful than eg. ICM or IpsosMORI.
It is a great (and frequent) mistake to fixate on one pollster when we have a wealth of other data.
It is madness to listen to daily fuzz when if you only lift your horizons you can hear the strong rhythm of the marching band.
It is in the nature of blogging to focus on fuzzy noise, because they have to publish something every day, even on days when nothing worth publishing happens.0 -
Revealed: how Unite brushed aside Labour’s corruption inquiry
THE full details of how Britain’s biggest union fought back against a Labour party inquiry into alleged electoral corruption are disclosed today.
Unite’s 12-page report, defending its role against Labour’s accusations that it used forgery and coercion to seize control of the safe Labour seat of Falkirk, is being published for the first time in The Sunday Times.
The internal document, part of a dossier of 1,000 Unite emails that were leaked to this newspaper, also reveals the full conclusions of Labour’s confidential report on the scandal.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1341801.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2013_11_160 -
Ukip at war in Scotland
... six of its nine European candidates quit amid allegations of dirty tricks and claims an ally of UK leader Nigel Farage was unfairly helped in the contest.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/ukip-at-war-in-scotland.22719662
The six, who include Scottish leader Lord Christopher Monckton and chair Mike Scott-Hayward, stood down as ballot papers were about to be sent out.
But the party pushed ahead with the selection and David Coburn, who is Ukip's London chair, was the controversial winner. A party source described the process as a "shambles" and evidence of London "parachuting in" a candidate.
Ukip in Scotland has failed to replicate the party's success south of the Border...
... the selection has prompted an extraordinary bout of infighting and a civil war between the UK party and its Scottish branch.
... One source said Ukip has presided over a "shambles" in Scotland: "It would appear they think parachuting in a London-based Scot is the answer. You cannot invite candidates to join a fair election fight when in reality the whole ballot appears to have been fixed from the start."
The source added: "We have blown any prospects of electoral success in next year's European elections."
Ukip recently published the results of the list rankings for Wales, Northern Ireland and regions in England, but not Scotland.
Coburn describes himself as "Lead Ukip Scotland MEP Candidate" on his Twitter feed.0 -
Despite Mr Miliband's plan for an energy price freeze, which has forced the Government on to the defensive since the party conferences, only 24 per cent say he is "turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party", up two points from before his party conference speech but down from 31 per cent in May. More voters (29 per cent) say their opinion of him has "become more negative recently" than say it has become more positive (24 per cent).
Trust in Mr Miliband and Ed Balls, the Shadow Chancellor, has fallen to its lowest point since the "omnishambles" Budget last year. Only 19 per cent trust them to "make the right decisions about the economy". David Cameron and George Osborne, on the other hand, are trusted by 27 per cent. Encouragingly for the Government, 44 per cent say they "expect the UK economy will improve next year", while only 34 per cent disagree.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-six-points-ahead-in-new-poll-8944624.html0 -
Scots Labour chief’s Falkirk link
Labour chair linked to Falkirk fiasco
LABOUR’S Scottish chairman played a key role in support of the Unite union activist at the heart of the Falkirk vote-rigging scandal, emails seen by The Sunday Times indicate.
Jackson Cullinane, who is also a senior Unite official, also appears to have bolstered Karie Murphy’s position despite warnings from the party’s top Scottish official.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/scotland/article1341831.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2013_11_17
Another scapegoat for Ed's smouldering firewall?0 -
or that the coalition has shifted the burden of taxation onto the rich....MrJones said:FPT
Which proves beyond any shadow of a doubt that banksta economics only benefits the rich.MikeL said:SUNDAY TIMES:
Top 1% of taxpayers pay 30% of all Income Tax (paid 21% of all IT in 2003)
Top 10% of taxpayers pay 55% of all income tax (paid 35% of all IT in 1979)
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"Jack Straw's immigration 'spectacular mistake'CarlottaVance said:YouGov:
Doing well (net)
Cameron: -19 (-1)
Miliband: -32 (-4)
Clegg: -54 (-)
Jack Straw's immigration 'spectacular mistake'
Was: 69 (Lab 62)
Was not: 16
The world is mean to UKIP supporters contd......last week it was cyclists going through red lights, this week it's Christmas stress:
Christmas stressful - net:
Con: -14
Lab: +5
LibD: -14
UKIP : +14
Was: 69 (Lab 62)
Was not: 16"
Wonder what the percentages would be if you did that poll in Westminster.
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"Nest of Vipers" contd......
Explosive leaked emails have laid bare for the first time the depth of the bitter feud between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
The emails, sent last week and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, reveal that the Labour leader’s team think Mr Balls is a ‘nightmare’.
They prove the two are deeply divided over how to respond to the economic revival.
And they indicate Mr Miliband is sick and tired of the shadow chancellor’s refusal to obey his orders and ‘stay on message’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508542/NIGHTMARE--Leaked-emails-reveal-Ed-Miliband-really-thinks-Balls.html#ixzz2ksxJEWOX
Labour is getting very leaky,,,,,first Falkirk, now this,,,,,0 -
Labour.. Soaring into the stratosphere .. almost out of sight now.0
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Good morning all. Polls are polls, they swing around. One event can completely change them. Labour will enjoy its current lead and some Tories will panic. Nothing new.0
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YouGov - change on year ago:
Con: 33 (-)
Lab: 39 (-5)
LibD: 10 (+1)
UKIP: 12 (+4)
Leaders net 'well':
Cameron: -19 (-2)
Miliband: -32 (-11)
Clegg: -53 (+2)0 -
I had an interesting exchange with Danny Blanchflower on Twitter on Friday evening. He believes Labour left behind a blossoming economy which was wrecked by the Coalition. The man is a grade A clown. I hope he stays in America.0
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More YouGov - vs year ago:
State of the economy - net 'good': -38 (+29)
Household situation over next 12m - net 'better': -29 (+12)0 -
BTW I think the current Con Maj price makes even less sense than the Romney price did. With Romney at least there was a non-bonkers story about how he would win. Basically the thought was that anti-Obama voters were enthused whereas Democrats were a bit meh, so the Republicans would have better turnout than 2008. Con Maj doesn't even have a story about which voters will swing or fail to turnout, beyond some vague stuff about how unspecified floating voters will have a last-minute epiphany about Ed Balls or something.
Admittedly there's a lot more time left than there was when Stuart Truth was posting and a lot can happen in between, but... 23%???0 -
I saw one spat where he claimed that he never made the '5 million unemployed' claim and that the person saying that was a liar.....I guess that defence rests on us not being able to add together '4 million job losses through coalition economic policies' to '1 million job losses in the public sector due to cuts'......Easterross said:I had an interesting exchange with Danny Blanchflower on Twitter on Friday evening. He believes Labour left behind a blossoming economy which was wrecked by the Coalition. The man is a grade A clown. I hope he stays in America.
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It's about one a week:
Scottish independence: Labour grandee backs Yes vote
Alex Mosson, who was Lord Provost of Glasgow between 1999 and 2003, said he will back a Yes vote because he believes that Westminster is “holding us back”.
Mosson’s announcement follows a similar conversion by the former Labour head of Strathclyde Regional Council Sir Charles Gray who also publicly voiced his support for independence.
Both are a boost to the Yes campaign, with evidence suggesting that Labour identifying voters hold the key to pushing support for independence over the 50 percent mark next September.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-labour-grandee-backs-yes-vote-1-31917330 -
Wrong:MrJones said:FPT
Which proves beyond any shadow of a doubt that banksta economics only benefits the rich.MikeL said:SUNDAY TIMES:
Top 1% of taxpayers pay 30% of all Income Tax (paid 21% of all IT in 2003)
Top 10% of taxpayers pay 55% of all income tax (paid 35% of all IT in 1979)
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2012/10/22/the-rich-dont-get-richer/
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/10/21/wealth-more-equal-in-uk-than-in-france-or-germany/
The urls are broadly accurate summaries of the contents.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
I'll try and get the pre-race piece up this morning. Race start is 7pm.0 -
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The emails dont sound particularly explosive. Tetchy at worst.
Balls is a nightmare, the economic ability of Blanchflower combined with the social skills of of the school bully.
I am sure that Miliband knows Balls is a liability, after all everyone else does. Even tim won't defend him.CarlottaVance said:"Nest of Vipers" contd......
Explosive leaked emails have laid bare for the first time the depth of the bitter feud between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
The emails, sent last week and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, reveal that the Labour leader’s team think Mr Balls is a ‘nightmare’.
They prove the two are deeply divided over how to respond to the economic revival.
And they indicate Mr Miliband is sick and tired of the shadow chancellor’s refusal to obey his orders and ‘stay on message’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508542/NIGHTMARE--Leaked-emails-reveal-Ed-Miliband-really-thinks-Balls.html#ixzz2ksxJEWOX
Labour is getting very leaky,,,,,first Falkirk, now this,,,,,0 -
Trust on immigration does not mean oppose. Presumably the LD voters trust the LDs to keep immigration high, as do a minority of Labour vi.
UKIP must derive a lot of its VI from its opposition to immigration.CarlottaVance said:0 -
But your proposition that CON + UKIP = 45% remains solid.AndyJS said:
It must be a bit annoying for UKIP that YouGov never quite puts them as high as the likes of Opinium and ComRes.Financier said:Latest YouGov / Sunday Times results 15th November - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 10%, UKIP 12%; APP -30
Divided Right !0 -
F1: hmm. Had 5 bets to consider for the race. Just ruled all of them out. Back to the drawing board...
Rugger: if Scotland lose handily my many bets will end up a shade of green, if they lose a bit or have the temerity to win then I'll be exactly evens. My own fault for stacking half my bets on the Irish to win.0 -
Hardly explosive - a mildly interesting story if you actually read it, based on a couple of vaguely intemperate emails.CarlottaVance said:"Nest of Vipers" contd......
Explosive leaked emails have laid bare for the first time the depth of the bitter feud between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
The emails, sent last week and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, reveal that the Labour leader’s team think Mr Balls is a ‘nightmare’.
They prove the two are deeply divided over how to respond to the economic revival.
And they indicate Mr Miliband is sick and tired of the shadow chancellor’s refusal to obey his orders and ‘stay on message’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508542/NIGHTMARE--Leaked-emails-reveal-Ed-Miliband-really-thinks-Balls.html#ixzz2ksxJEWOX
Labour is getting very leaky,,,,,first Falkirk, now this,,,,,
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What's the real story? Darling looking to make a triumphant return to the economics brief after winning the Scottish referendum next year?foxinsoxuk said:The emails dont sound particularly explosive. Tetchy at worst.
Balls is a nightmare, the economic ability of Blanchflower combined with the social skills of of the school bully.
I am sure that Miliband knows Balls is a liability, after all everyone else does. Even tim won't defend him.CarlottaVance said:"Nest of Vipers" contd......
Explosive leaked emails have laid bare for the first time the depth of the bitter feud between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
The emails, sent last week and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, reveal that the Labour leader’s team think Mr Balls is a ‘nightmare’.
They prove the two are deeply divided over how to respond to the economic revival.
And they indicate Mr Miliband is sick and tired of the shadow chancellor’s refusal to obey his orders and ‘stay on message’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508542/NIGHTMARE--Leaked-emails-reveal-Ed-Miliband-really-thinks-Balls.html#ixzz2ksxJEWOX
Labour is getting very leaky,,,,,first Falkirk, now this,,,,,0 -
Immigration "good thing" for British economy - net good:foxinsoxuk said:Trust on immigration does not mean oppose. Presumably the LD voters trust the LDs to keep immigration high, as do a minority of Labour vi.
UKIP must derive a lot of its VI from its opposition to immigration.CarlottaVance said:
Con: -30
Lab: -14
LibD: +19
UKIP: -800 -
Indeed.Bobajob said:
Hardly explosive - a mildly interesting story if you actually read it, based on a couple of vaguely intemperate emails.CarlottaVance said:"Nest of Vipers" contd......
Explosive leaked emails have laid bare for the first time the depth of the bitter feud between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
The emails, sent last week and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, reveal that the Labour leader’s team think Mr Balls is a ‘nightmare’.
They prove the two are deeply divided over how to respond to the economic revival.
And they indicate Mr Miliband is sick and tired of the shadow chancellor’s refusal to obey his orders and ‘stay on message’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508542/NIGHTMARE--Leaked-emails-reveal-Ed-Miliband-really-thinks-Balls.html#ixzz2ksxJEWOX
Labour is getting very leaky,,,,,first Falkirk, now this,,,,,0 -
I should advise him to plan his future actions after a yes vote.DecrepitJohnL said:
What's the real story? Darling looking to make a triumphant return to the economics brief after his triumph in the Scottish referendum next year?foxinsoxuk said:The emails dont sound particularly explosive. Tetchy at worst.
Balls is a nightmare, the economic ability of Blanchflower combined with the social skills of of the school bully.
I am sure that Miliband knows Balls is a liability, after all everyone else does. Even tim won't defend him.CarlottaVance said:"Nest of Vipers" contd......
Explosive leaked emails have laid bare for the first time the depth of the bitter feud between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
The emails, sent last week and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, reveal that the Labour leader’s team think Mr Balls is a ‘nightmare’.
They prove the two are deeply divided over how to respond to the economic revival.
And they indicate Mr Miliband is sick and tired of the shadow chancellor’s refusal to obey his orders and ‘stay on message’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508542/NIGHTMARE--Leaked-emails-reveal-Ed-Miliband-really-thinks-Balls.html#ixzz2ksxJEWOX
Labour is getting very leaky,,,,,first Falkirk, now this,,,,,0 -
Having now read Carlotta's latest treatise on Ungrangekirk, can someone explain to me, in 25 words or less, what Ed Miliband is supposed to have done that is so damaging/evil?0
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The more interesting question is why they were leaked at all...Bobajob said:
Hardly explosive - a mildly interesting story if you actually read it, based on a couple of vaguely intemperate emails.CarlottaVance said:"Nest of Vipers" contd......
Explosive leaked emails have laid bare for the first time the depth of the bitter feud between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
The emails, sent last week and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, reveal that the Labour leader’s team think Mr Balls is a ‘nightmare’.
They prove the two are deeply divided over how to respond to the economic revival.
And they indicate Mr Miliband is sick and tired of the shadow chancellor’s refusal to obey his orders and ‘stay on message’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508542/NIGHTMARE--Leaked-emails-reveal-Ed-Miliband-really-thinks-Balls.html#ixzz2ksxJEWOX
Labour is getting very leaky,,,,,first Falkirk, now this,,,,,
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Similar story with Ipsos Mori. Who's having the worst of it?CarlottaVance said:YouGov - change on year ago:
Con: 33 (-)
Lab: 39 (-5)
LibD: 10 (+1)
UKIP: 12 (+4)
Leaders net 'well':
Cameron: -19 (-2)
Miliband: -32 (-11)
Clegg: -53 (+2)
Nov 2013 VI with change from Nov 2012:
Con 32 (nc)
Lab 38 (-8)
LD 8 (-1)
Ukip 8 (+5)
Approval:
Govt -31 (nc)
Cam -21 (-6)
Mili -23 (-20)
Clegg -43 (-11)0 -
These 'trust' figures (immigration, economy) are arguably so low for everyone as to make no difference. The headline figures are suggesting a shift from 4-5pt Labour leads to 6-8pt ones. Not enough for Labour to be confident of a majority, nor enough to stop the Tories fancying most seats. That's the state of play with 18 months to go, and pretty much everything else is noise.foxinsoxuk said:Trust on immigration does not mean oppose. Presumably the LD voters trust the LDs to keep immigration high, as do a minority of Labour vi.
UKIP must derive a lot of its VI from its opposition to immigration.CarlottaVance said:
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I agree: allowing Jack Straw's ancestors into the UK was a spectacular mistake. A man who competed with Mr Blunkett for the title of least liberal home secretary of the post Henry VIII period.MrJones said:
"Jack Straw's immigration 'spectacular mistake'CarlottaVance said:YouGov:
Doing well (net)
Cameron: -19 (-1)
Miliband: -32 (-4)
Clegg: -54 (-)
Jack Straw's immigration 'spectacular mistake'
Was: 69 (Lab 62)
Was not: 16
The world is mean to UKIP supporters contd......last week it was cyclists going through red lights, this week it's Christmas stress:
Christmas stressful - net:
Con: -14
Lab: +5
LibD: -14
UKIP : +14
Was: 69 (Lab 62)
Was not: 16"
Wonder what the percentages would be if you did that poll in Westminster.0 -
Did the pre-election poll include UKIP?tim said:The Tories lead over Labour on immigration has gone from 38% before the 2010 election to 4% now.
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Yep. It does look like two camps in Labour briefing against each other.
Still, that didn't cause problems before, did it?CarlottaVance said:
The more interesting question is why they were leaked at all...Bobajob said:
Hardly explosive - a mildly interesting story if you actually read it, based on a couple of vaguely intemperate emails.CarlottaVance said:"Nest of Vipers" contd......
Explosive leaked emails have laid bare for the first time the depth of the bitter feud between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
The emails, sent last week and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, reveal that the Labour leader’s team think Mr Balls is a ‘nightmare’.
They prove the two are deeply divided over how to respond to the economic revival.
And they indicate Mr Miliband is sick and tired of the shadow chancellor’s refusal to obey his orders and ‘stay on message’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508542/NIGHTMARE--Leaked-emails-reveal-Ed-Miliband-really-thinks-Balls.html#ixzz2ksxJEWOX
Labour is getting very leaky,,,,,first Falkirk, now this,,,,,0 -
That's a "no" then - and, not for the first time, tim is caught comparing apples with bananas....tim said:
Who cares,CarlottaVance said:
Did the pre-election poll include UKIP?tim said:The Tories lead over Labour on immigration has gone from 38% before the 2010 election to 4% now.
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Just for fun: Say this change continues for the next year and a halfCarlottaVance said:YouGov - change on year ago:
Con: 33 (-)
Lab: 39 (-5)
LibD: 10 (+1)
UKIP: 12 (+4)
Leaders net 'well':
Cameron: -19 (-2)
Miliband: -32 (-11)
Clegg: -53 (+2)
Con 33 (-)
Lab 31.5 (-7.5)
LibD 11.5 (+1.5)
UKIP 18 (+6)
Baxtering Yields:
CON 33.00% 286
LAB 31.50% 309
LIB 11.50% 27
UKIP 18% 0
Labour Minority or Lib-Lab pact.0 -
@MrJonesCarlottaVance said:
or that the coalition has shifted the burden of taxation onto the rich....MrJones said:FPT
Which proves beyond any shadow of a doubt that banksta economics only benefits the rich.MikeL said:SUNDAY TIMES:
Top 1% of taxpayers pay 30% of all Income Tax (paid 21% of all IT in 2003)
Top 10% of taxpayers pay 55% of all income tax (paid 35% of all IT in 1979)
Carlotta is - of course - completely correct.
Between 2003 and 2011, top rate taxpayers paid - directly - 25% more tax, as their marginal rate went from 40% to 50%.
In addition, the increase in capital gain tax from 18% to 28% broke a lot of tax 'optimisation' techniques (which, for the record I've never used).
The consequence of these things is that if you're earning - say - GBP20m a year, your tax burden probably did increase 30% or so between 2003 and 2011.-1 -
"Nest of vipers" was Dan Hodges phrase and "Explosive" the Mail's - but do feel free to post links to press reports praising the smooth running of Ed Milband's office......which if you had been paying attention, may have something to do with Falkirk.....Bobajob said:@Carlotta
It was a 'nest of vipers' and 'explosive' as recently as five minutes ago. You are becoming a laughing stock.
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Millsy said:
Similar story with Ipsos Mori. Who's having the worst of it?CarlottaVance said:YouGov - change on year ago:
Con: 33 (-)
Lab: 39 (-5)
LibD: 10 (+1)
UKIP: 12 (+4)
Leaders net 'well':
Cameron: -19 (-2)
Miliband: -32 (-11)
Clegg: -53 (+2)
Nov 2013 VI with change from Nov 2012:
Con 32 (nc)
Lab 38 (-8)
LD 8 (-1)
Ukip 8 (+5)
Approval:
Govt -31 (nc)
Cam -21 (-6)
Mili -23 (-20)
Clegg -43 (-11)
Say another year and a half:
Con 32 (nc)
Lab 26 (-12)
LD 6.5 (-1.5)
Ukip 15.5 (+7.5)
National Prediction: CON short 3 of majority
Whilst a Conservative Minority Gov't would be de facto very viable due to Sinn Fein absences, for betting purposes it is settled as NOM...& Con Minority or Con-Lib coalition.
Not even that Baxters to a conservative majority.0 -
Half the fluff has been blown off the Labour vote before the general election campaign is even considered. How much more when it actually starts?Pulpstar said:
Just for fun: Say this change continues for the next year and a halfCarlottaVance said:YouGov - change on year ago:
Con: 33 (-)
Lab: 39 (-5)
LibD: 10 (+1)
UKIP: 12 (+4)
Leaders net 'well':
Cameron: -19 (-2)
Miliband: -32 (-11)
Clegg: -53 (+2)
Con 33 (-)
Lab 31.5 (-7.5)
LibD 11.5 (+1.5)
UKIP 18 (+6)
Baxtering Yields:
CON 33.00% 286
LAB 31.50% 309
LIB 11.50% 27
UKIP 18% 0
Labour Minority or Lib-Lab pact.0 -
@Morris
Did you see the England game yesterday? We are going in the right direction under Lancaster. Shame we didn't win the game but you can feel we should come to the boil at the right time for the WC.
Meanwhile, just watched the Wales tries - some boy's own stuff there - the Welsh are looking ominously good although the Argies clearly had a bad day at the office.0 -
Such as? You still don't say what it is that Ed is supposed to have done wrong.CarlottaVance said:
"Nest of vipers" was Dan Hodges phrase and "Explosive" the Mail's - but do feel free to post links to press reports praising the smooth running of Ed Milband's office......which if you had been paying attention, may have something to do with Falkirk.....Bobajob said:@Carlotta
It was a 'nest of vipers' and 'explosive' as recently as five minutes ago. You are becoming a laughing stock.
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Indeed! "Man cries at funeral" hasn't been out of the headlines, while "Falkirk" sank from view months ago.....tim said:
.No wonder you get everything wrongCarlottaVance said:
That's a "no" then - and, not for the first time, tim is caught comparing apples with bananas....tim said:
Who cares,CarlottaVance said:
Did the pre-election poll include UKIP?tim said:The Tories lead over Labour on immigration has gone from 38% before the 2010 election to 4% now.
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Betting Post
Laid Rosberg for points at 1.69. The 12th bet I considered, which I think is a record.
He had a very poor race in texas last year and this year was also significantly off his team mate.
The pre-race piece is here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/america-pre-race.html0 -
Blimey. No wonder Gareth Bale had to emigrate.rcs1000 said:
@MrJonesCarlottaVance said:
or that the coalition has shifted the burden of taxation onto the rich....MrJones said:FPT
Which proves beyond any shadow of a doubt that banksta economics only benefits the rich.MikeL said:SUNDAY TIMES:
Top 1% of taxpayers pay 30% of all Income Tax (paid 21% of all IT in 2003)
Top 10% of taxpayers pay 55% of all income tax (paid 35% of all IT in 1979)
Carlotta is - of course - completely correct.
Between 2003 and 2011, top rate taxpayers paid - directly - 25% more tax, as their marginal rate went from 40% to 50%.
In addition, the increase in capital gain tax from 18% to 28% broke a lot of tax 'optimisation' techniques (which, for the record I've never used).
The consequence of these things is that if you're earning - say - GBP20m a year, your tax burden probably did increase 30% or so between 2003 and 2011.
@rcs -- apologies for flagging your post as off-topic. I was aiming, not very carefully, for the quote button.0 -
Doesn't matter in terms of a conservative majority tbh, they ain't going to poll sub Brown levels, LD-LAB switchers will remain in CON-LAB marginals and the electoral maths is ridiculously in their favour.Millsy said:
Half the fluff has been blown off the Labour vote before the general election campaign is even considered. How much more when it actually starts?Pulpstar said:
Just for fun: Say this change continues for the next year and a halfCarlottaVance said:YouGov - change on year ago:
Con: 33 (-)
Lab: 39 (-5)
LibD: 10 (+1)
UKIP: 12 (+4)
Leaders net 'well':
Cameron: -19 (-2)
Miliband: -32 (-11)
Clegg: -53 (+2)
Con 33 (-)
Lab 31.5 (-7.5)
LibD 11.5 (+1.5)
UKIP 18 (+6)
Baxtering Yields:
CON 33.00% 286
LAB 31.50% 309
LIB 11.50% 27
UKIP 18% 0
Labour Minority or Lib-Lab pact.0 -
If you read Hodges rather than reflexively sneering you'd be better informed.Bobajob said:
Such as? You still don't say what it is that Ed is supposed to have done wrong.CarlottaVance said:
"Nest of vipers" was Dan Hodges phrase and "Explosive" the Mail's - but do feel free to post links to press reports praising the smooth running of Ed Milband's office......which if you had been paying attention, may have something to do with Falkirk.....Bobajob said:@Carlotta
It was a 'nest of vipers' and 'explosive' as recently as five minutes ago. You are becoming a laughing stock.
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Mr. Ajob, no, I didn't. I watched a bit of the Welsh game, and what I saw was pretty good, although the Argies are out of sorts. One handsome chap tipped a 31-40 Wales victory at 12/1, you know
England did very well not to crumble after being down 15-3 early on. Ashton should be dropped, though. I'm hoping the Springboks crush the Welsh. Purely for betting reasons, of coruse.0 -
Pulpstar said:
Just for fun: Say this change continues for the next year and a halfCarlottaVance said:YouGov - change on year ago:
Con: 33 (-)
Lab: 39 (-5)
LibD: 10 (+1)
UKIP: 12 (+4)
Leaders net 'well':
Cameron: -19 (-2)
Miliband: -32 (-11)
Clegg: -53 (+2)
Con 33 (-)
Lab 31.5 (-7.5)
LibD 11.5 (+1.5)
UKIP 18 (+6)
Baxtering Yields:
CON 33.00% 286
LAB 31.50% 309
LIB 11.50% 27
UKIP 18% 0
Labour Minority or Lib-Lab pact.Millsy said:
Similar story with Ipsos Mori. Who's having the worst of it?CarlottaVance said:YouGov - change on year ago:
Con: 33 (-)
Lab: 39 (-5)
LibD: 10 (+1)
UKIP: 12 (+4)
Leaders net 'well':
Cameron: -19 (-2)
Miliband: -32 (-11)
Clegg: -53 (+2)
Nov 2013 VI with change from Nov 2012:
Con 32 (nc)
Lab 38 (-8)
LD 8 (-1)
Ukip 8 (+5)
Approval:
Govt -31 (nc)
Cam -21 (-6)
Mili -23 (-20)
Clegg -43 (-11)
Only on PB could an increasing Labour lead turn into a declining one!0 -
Depends on your perspective - Miliband has recovered from a weak summer, but is still well below where he and his party were a year ago. Who knows where we will be in 12 months time - let alone 18!Bobajob said:Pulpstar said:
Just for fun: Say this change continues for the next year and a halfCarlottaVance said:YouGov - change on year ago:
Con: 33 (-)
Lab: 39 (-5)
LibD: 10 (+1)
UKIP: 12 (+4)
Leaders net 'well':
Cameron: -19 (-2)
Miliband: -32 (-11)
Clegg: -53 (+2)
Con 33 (-)
Lab 31.5 (-7.5)
LibD 11.5 (+1.5)
UKIP 18 (+6)
Baxtering Yields:
CON 33.00% 286
LAB 31.50% 309
LIB 11.50% 27
UKIP 18% 0
Labour Minority or Lib-Lab pact.Millsy said:
Similar story with Ipsos Mori. Who's having the worst of it?CarlottaVance said:YouGov - change on year ago:
Con: 33 (-)
Lab: 39 (-5)
LibD: 10 (+1)
UKIP: 12 (+4)
Leaders net 'well':
Cameron: -19 (-2)
Miliband: -32 (-11)
Clegg: -53 (+2)
Nov 2013 VI with change from Nov 2012:
Con 32 (nc)
Lab 38 (-8)
LD 8 (-1)
Ukip 8 (+5)
Approval:
Govt -31 (nc)
Cam -21 (-6)
Mili -23 (-20)
Clegg -43 (-11)
Only on PB could an increasing Labour lead turn into a declining one!
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0
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Thanks to the brilliant strategic stances of Hideaway Ed and McCluskey they have achieved something they both do not want.. An officilal inquiry into Union Strike Voting figures ... well done lads.0
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Nice bet! Wish I'd had a bit of that! It's well worth getting Sky at the moment (assuming you haven't got it) as you get the rugby, the Ashes and of course all the footie. You can then just cancel it after the month's out!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Ajob, no, I didn't. I watched a bit of the Welsh game, and what I saw was pretty good, although the Argies are out of sorts. One handsome chap tipped a 31-40 Wales victory at 12/1, you know
England did very well not to crumble after being down 15-3 early on. Ashton should be dropped, though. I'm hoping the Springboks crush the Welsh. Purely for betting reasons, of coruse.
0 -
Anyone who wants the age of consent dropped to fifteen is an idiot or someone with an unhealthy interest in youngsters0
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Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?
This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?0 -
He sneers, reflexively......tim said:
UnspoofableCarlottaVance said:
If you read Hodges rather than reflexively sneering you'd be better informed.Bobajob said:
Such as? You still don't say what it is that Ed is supposed to have done wrong.CarlottaVance said:
"Nest of vipers" was Dan Hodges phrase and "Explosive" the Mail's - but do feel free to post links to press reports praising the smooth running of Ed Milband's office......which if you had been paying attention, may have something to do with Falkirk.....Bobajob said:@Carlotta
It was a 'nest of vipers' and 'explosive' as recently as five minutes ago. You are becoming a laughing stock.
......go on, post a link to your "Man cries at funeral" story.....
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Absolutely risible.CarlottaVance said:
If you read Hodges rather than reflexively sneering you'd be better informed.Bobajob said:
Such as? You still don't say what it is that Ed is supposed to have done wrong.CarlottaVance said:
"Nest of vipers" was Dan Hodges phrase and "Explosive" the Mail's - but do feel free to post links to press reports praising the smooth running of Ed Milband's office......which if you had been paying attention, may have something to do with Falkirk.....Bobajob said:@Carlotta
It was a 'nest of vipers' and 'explosive' as recently as five minutes ago. You are becoming a laughing stock.
Hodges main problem is not that he writes the same story every week, but that he has no contacts in the Labour Party, which kinds of undermines the identical story that he writes every week.
0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22459815 - Well, its a view... I suppose.
Age of consent is perfectly fine at 16 tbh.0 -
Lol. Good job they've never picked up on me churning out kids spekin' Pottree.
http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/cumbrian-teacher-in-berkshire-told-to-lose-accent-and-sound-more-southern-1.1099026
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I watched a video of Clydebank TUC debate on independence and you would not believe it. Anas Anwar was absolutely slaughtered, he looked terrified on stage as the crowd bayed, they were going crackers. You would never have expected such a thing , labour and NO look to be heading for serious trouble.CarlottaVance said:It's about one a week:
Scottish independence: Labour grandee backs Yes vote
Alex Mosson, who was Lord Provost of Glasgow between 1999 and 2003, said he will back a Yes vote because he believes that Westminster is “holding us back”.
Mosson’s announcement follows a similar conversion by the former Labour head of Strathclyde Regional Council Sir Charles Gray who also publicly voiced his support for independence.
Both are a boost to the Yes campaign, with evidence suggesting that Labour identifying voters hold the key to pushing support for independence over the 50 percent mark next September.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-labour-grandee-backs-yes-vote-1-3191733
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I know - my post was aimed at Millsy and Carlotta, apologies for the confusion.Pulpstar said:@Bobajob - The point was (In my post at least) to illustrate how hard a CON majority is to get without an increasing conservative % no matter what the Labour % is. I do not envisage Labour being in the 20s fwiw.
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Every Father should be on the alert with regard to lowering the age of consent to 15, and kill it stone dead0
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1. All totally meaningless until the effects of the end of the biggest credit bubble in history (1998-2008) which disguised the damage that was being done have dropped out of the figures.antifrank said:
Wrong:MrJones said:FPT
Which proves beyond any shadow of a doubt that banksta economics only benefits the rich.MikeL said:SUNDAY TIMES:
Top 1% of taxpayers pay 30% of all Income Tax (paid 21% of all IT in 2003)
Top 10% of taxpayers pay 55% of all income tax (paid 35% of all IT in 1979)
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2012/10/22/the-rich-dont-get-richer/
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/10/21/wealth-more-equal-in-uk-than-in-france-or-germany/
The urls are broadly accurate summaries of the contents.
edit: for example the inevitable house price crash once all the banks' toxic mortgage assets have been transferred to the public via central bank purchase and the interest rates go up again.
2. Bankstas have spent the last 30 years looting Britain and transferring that wealth abroad. For example the tax scam where a UK company can register their brand in Monaco and use that to to transfer all their profits there tax-free. Is all the looted wealth from those tax scams and the income that derives from them counted in the UK's Gini coefficient. No.
Banksta (aka trickle-down) economics only benefits the rich as the last 30 years prove beyond any doubt - or at least they would only benefit the rich if they didn't always end in deflationary spirals so in the end they damage everyone.0 -
LOL, his result there will match his handling of the economy. Meltdown for Labour on the horizon.DecrepitJohnL said:
What's the real story? Darling looking to make a triumphant return to the economics brief after winning the Scottish referendum next year?foxinsoxuk said:The emails dont sound particularly explosive. Tetchy at worst.
Balls is a nightmare, the economic ability of Blanchflower combined with the social skills of of the school bully.
I am sure that Miliband knows Balls is a liability, after all everyone else does. Even tim won't defend him.CarlottaVance said:"Nest of Vipers" contd......
Explosive leaked emails have laid bare for the first time the depth of the bitter feud between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
The emails, sent last week and obtained by The Mail on Sunday, reveal that the Labour leader’s team think Mr Balls is a ‘nightmare’.
They prove the two are deeply divided over how to respond to the economic revival.
And they indicate Mr Miliband is sick and tired of the shadow chancellor’s refusal to obey his orders and ‘stay on message’.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2508542/NIGHTMARE--Leaked-emails-reveal-Ed-Miliband-really-thinks-Balls.html#ixzz2ksxJEWOX
Labour is getting very leaky,,,,,first Falkirk, now this,,,,,0 -
Ed Miliband did not tackle the machine politics of Falkirk thoroughly. Or swiftly. Instead, he connived in it. Those of us who have been perplexed at his actions over the past fortnight now have our answer.Carola said:Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?
This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100245764/so-now-we-know-ed-miliband-struck-a-deal-that-allowed-unite-to-rig-the-falkirk-selection/
This fundamentally changes the context for Ed Miliband’s speech launching the union link reforms in July this year. When he spoke, attacking “machine politics” and what had gone on in Falkirk, it is very likely Ed Miliband did so in the full knowledge that his team had given the green light to Unite’s activities in the constituency.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/13/when-ed-miliband-condemned-unites-machine-politics-in-falkirk-did-he-forget-his-office-had-signed-off-on-their-tactics/
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I have got this theory that he's actually not that bothered about winning again - now that he has fulfilled his ambition to be PM.tim said:So what does Cameron believe in, errr....
"Recently, I've been asking senior government figures a fairly straightforward question: what does the prime minister believe in? One supporter ventured "responsibility", a solid-sounding word and at the same time a vague one. One cabinet member smiled at my invitation to explain the prime minister's convictions before replying: "Good question." Another senior minister exploded: "I don't think he believes in bloody anything!" A third said: "The trouble with Cameron is that 90% of his ambition was fulfilled the night he walked over the threshold of Number 10."
This is a critique that is shared by observers of his premiership from the left and disappointed spectators on the right, who include some people who would claim to be his friend. He loves being prime minister, they say, but he is not that interested in changing the country. David Cameron doesn't see all that much wrong with a world in which he and people like him are in charge."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/17/david-camerons-convictions
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As Victoria Coren pointed out on HIGNFY, it's a bit like The Wire. Unless you have followed every single one of Carlotta's updates you have zero chance of grasping the enormity of this massive story.Carola said:Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?
This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?
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What do you think of the Labour-Uncut link I posted below?Bobajob said:
As Victoria Coren pointed out on HIGNFY, it's a bit like The Wire. Unless you have followed every single one of Carlotta's updates you have zero chance of grasping the enormity of this massive story.Carola said:Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?
This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?
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So he failed to tackle "machine politics". Well now we know.CarlottaVance said:
Ed Miliband did not tackle the machine politics of Falkirk thoroughly. Or swiftly. Instead, he connived in it. Those of us who have been perplexed at his actions over the past fortnight now have our answer.Carola said:Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?
This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100245764/so-now-we-know-ed-miliband-struck-a-deal-that-allowed-unite-to-rig-the-falkirk-selection/
This fundamentally changes the context for Ed Miliband’s speech launching the union link reforms in July this year. When he spoke, attacking “machine politics” and what had gone on in Falkirk, it is very likely Ed Miliband did so in the full knowledge that his team had given the green light to Unite’s activities in the constituency.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/13/when-ed-miliband-condemned-unites-machine-politics-in-falkirk-did-he-forget-his-office-had-signed-off-on-their-tactics/0 -
True - although the first figure uses 2003 and the second 1979 so not necessarily the coalition. However I take it all back - until the effects of the biggest credit bubble in history drop out of the calculations and we see what the Gini coefficient looks like then.CarlottaVance said:
or that the coalition has shifted the burden of taxation onto the rich....MrJones said:FPT
Which proves beyond any shadow of a doubt that banksta economics only benefits the rich.MikeL said:SUNDAY TIMES:
Top 1% of taxpayers pay 30% of all Income Tax (paid 21% of all IT in 2003)
Top 10% of taxpayers pay 55% of all income tax (paid 35% of all IT in 1979)0 -
Cheers. But what's he done that most folk on the street would be surprised at or shocked about? Or not think that some version of this goes on in all parties when it comes to vested interests?CarlottaVance said:
Ed Miliband did not tackle the machine politics of Falkirk thoroughly. Or swiftly. Instead, he connived in it. Those of us who have been perplexed at his actions over the past fortnight now have our answer.Carola said:Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?
This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100245764/so-now-we-know-ed-miliband-struck-a-deal-that-allowed-unite-to-rig-the-falkirk-selection/
This fundamentally changes the context for Ed Miliband’s speech launching the union link reforms in July this year. When he spoke, attacking “machine politics” and what had gone on in Falkirk, it is very likely Ed Miliband did so in the full knowledge that his team had given the green light to Unite’s activities in the constituency.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/13/when-ed-miliband-condemned-unites-machine-politics-in-falkirk-did-he-forget-his-office-had-signed-off-on-their-tactics/
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Or connived in it, then was panicked into denouncing it?Bobajob said:
So he failed to tackle "machine politics". Well now we know.CarlottaVance said:
Ed Miliband did not tackle the machine politics of Falkirk thoroughly. Or swiftly. Instead, he connived in it. Those of us who have been perplexed at his actions over the past fortnight now have our answer.Carola said:Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?
This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100245764/so-now-we-know-ed-miliband-struck-a-deal-that-allowed-unite-to-rig-the-falkirk-selection/
This fundamentally changes the context for Ed Miliband’s speech launching the union link reforms in July this year. When he spoke, attacking “machine politics” and what had gone on in Falkirk, it is very likely Ed Miliband did so in the full knowledge that his team had given the green light to Unite’s activities in the constituency.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/13/when-ed-miliband-condemned-unites-machine-politics-in-falkirk-did-he-forget-his-office-had-signed-off-on-their-tactics/
And is launching the "biggest reform of Labour in a generation" based on, how to put it, "selective" presentation of the facts....
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Morning all
I don't think OGH's comment about people "betting with their hearts and not their heads" applies just to political betting. The number of people who back England at major sporting events out of sentiment at prices which bear no relation to the country's actual chances ensures we have High Streets full of bookmakers none of whom seem to have been affected by the recession.
Whether it be cricket, either rugby code or of course football, England are always much shorter than any reasonable analysis of form suggests but the bookies know the patriotic punter is always there to swell the balance sheet.
In politics, of course, wanting your side to win and coming up with convincing arguments as to why they should win are all very well and good but as we know the reasons why people vote the way they do often defy logic and rational analysis. At the moment, a solid and consistent bloc of those intending to vote intend to vote Labour but whether that is a vote for Labour or simply a vote against the Coalition parties doesn't much matter - the net effect is the same.0 -
Erm... Um... He has FAILED to tackle machine politics.Carola said:
Cheers. But what's he done that most folk on the street would be surprised at or shocked about? Or not think that some version of this goes on in all parties when it comes to vested interests?CarlottaVance said:
Ed Miliband did not tackle the machine politics of Falkirk thoroughly. Or swiftly. Instead, he connived in it. Those of us who have been perplexed at his actions over the past fortnight now have our answer.Carola said:Can someone tell me - if not dodgy for the site - what Miliband is supposed to have done?
This is a genuine question - I haven't been following it that closely, and all I get on here is mutterings of the black spot. For what?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100245764/so-now-we-know-ed-miliband-struck-a-deal-that-allowed-unite-to-rig-the-falkirk-selection/
This fundamentally changes the context for Ed Miliband’s speech launching the union link reforms in July this year. When he spoke, attacking “machine politics” and what had gone on in Falkirk, it is very likely Ed Miliband did so in the full knowledge that his team had given the green light to Unite’s activities in the constituency.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/11/13/when-ed-miliband-condemned-unites-machine-politics-in-falkirk-did-he-forget-his-office-had-signed-off-on-their-tactics/
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Clegg seems to have managed to avoid the bloated chubberdom that's afflicted the likes of Cameron, Osborne and Alexander since getting into power.0
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Miliband was looking a little chunky recently too - but Clegg is looking the best of the lot.....Carola said:Clegg seems to have managed to avoid the bloated chubberdom that's afflicted the likes of Cameron, Osborne and Alexander since getting into power.
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The fact that Labour are doing this is something that will surprise or shock very few people.Carola said:
Cheers. But what's he done that most folk on the street would be surprised at or shocked about? Or not think that some version of this goes on in all parties when it comes to vested interests?
Whether it is correct is another matter.0 -
I've been known to scoff a family bar of Dairy Milk when under stress.CarlottaVance said:
Miliband was looking a little chunky recently too - but Clegg is looking the best of the lot.....Carola said:Clegg seems to have managed to avoid the bloated chubberdom that's afflicted the likes of Cameron, Osborne and Alexander since getting into power.
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You and tim would have more credibility on this if you were prepared to rebut what Hodges actually writes (not that either of you can, as you don't read it). Instead, you have to generically sneer, in a transparent attempt to shut down a debate that you really, really don't want to be having.Bobajob said:
Absolutely risible.CarlottaVance said:
If you read Hodges rather than reflexively sneering you'd be better informed.Bobajob said:
Such as? You still don't say what it is that Ed is supposed to have done wrong.CarlottaVance said:
"Nest of vipers" was Dan Hodges phrase and "Explosive" the Mail's - but do feel free to post links to press reports praising the smooth running of Ed Milband's office......which if you had been paying attention, may have something to do with Falkirk.....Bobajob said:@Carlotta
It was a 'nest of vipers' and 'explosive' as recently as five minutes ago. You are becoming a laughing stock.
Hodges main problem is not that he writes the same story every week, but that he has no contacts in the Labour Party, which kinds of undermines the identical story that he writes every week.0 -
I'm not suggesting that it's right. Just that most people would expect all parties to be at it.Gerry_Mander said:
The fact that Labour are doing this is something that will surprise or shock very few people.Carola said:
Cheers. But what's he done that most folk on the street would be surprised at or shocked about? Or not think that some version of this goes on in all parties when it comes to vested interests?
Whether it is correct is another matter.0 -
I thought "The Milky Bars are on Ed"?Carola said:
I've been known to scoff a family bar of Dairy Milk when under stress.CarlottaVance said:
Miliband was looking a little chunky recently too - but Clegg is looking the best of the lot.....Carola said:Clegg seems to have managed to avoid the bloated chubberdom that's afflicted the likes of Cameron, Osborne and Alexander since getting into power.
Meanwhile Daniel Knowles spotted it too: "Clegg on Marr. Not particularly interesting, but striking how healthy he looks - more so than in 2010. In stark contrast to David Cameron"
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Blackbusters!tim said:As a Father alert
@ChrisMasonBBC: Downing St ring up saying can we get into our 9am bulletins that the PM has rejected a call to lower the age of consent to 15...
Incompetent twits alert
@ChrisMasonBBC: ...but then send a statement saying they "have plans to change it." Turns out they missed out the word "no."
Did any experts come back on the best way to bet on Ed out before the GE - is it the 5-1 with Ladbrokes?
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And your take on the Unite/Falkirk issue?tim said:
Hodges is predicting the LD's will take 7% off Labour between now and the election.Blofelds_Cat said:
You and tim would have more credibility on this if you were prepared to rebut what Hodges actually writes (not that either of you can, as you don't read it). Instead, you have to generically sneer, in a transparent attempt to shut down a debate that you really, really don't want to be having.Bobajob said:
Absolutely risible.CarlottaVance said:
If you read Hodges rather than reflexively sneering you'd be better informed.Bobajob said:
Such as? You still don't say what it is that Ed is supposed to have done wrong.CarlottaVance said:
"Nest of vipers" was Dan Hodges phrase and "Explosive" the Mail's - but do feel free to post links to press reports praising the smooth running of Ed Milband's office......which if you had been paying attention, may have something to do with Falkirk.....Bobajob said:@Carlotta
It was a 'nest of vipers' and 'explosive' as recently as five minutes ago. You are becoming a laughing stock.
Hodges main problem is not that he writes the same story every week, but that he has no contacts in the Labour Party, which kinds of undermines the identical story that he writes every week.
Now why would that happen?
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Is there any evidence that the other parties would be at it?Carola said:
I'm not suggesting that it's right. Just that most people would expect all parties to be at it.Gerry_Mander said:
The fact that Labour are doing this is something that will surprise or shock very few people.Carola said:
Cheers. But what's he done that most folk on the street would be surprised at or shocked about? Or not think that some version of this goes on in all parties when it comes to vested interests?
Whether it is correct is another matter.
A genuine question, I don't know. Having lived mainly in Labour areas when in the UK (except now, we certainly had people 'supporting' Labour who didn't really know about it, but were often told that if they were working class, they should be supporting Labour, so end of story.0
