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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A fortnight on from the eve of GE2017 and a look back at those final polls
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Comments
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1st - like America on the moon
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POTMWAS0
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Do the bottom 3 pollsters get eliminated from the next round?0
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KABOOM!!!!!!!!!
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ICM = cardboard standard0
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It's ironic that the biggest error was that of Labour's own pollster.0
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F1: I did have several other betting ideas before I became Supreme Ruler of the Universe, but I'll wait until tomorrow to contemplate those properly. I'll also update on whether, as Mr. Eagles suggested, those bets get made null and void. If not, I'll wait until right before the race and then put hedging bets on the reverse result.
On-topic: who'd be a pollster? In particular, the last election had a large number of very odd and ultra-close results. We could easily have had a blue majority. Or a very bad case of the Trots.0 -
FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live
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Erm, in what world is a law that puts all European laws into the statute books not going to pass Holyrood?0
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Any murmurings on whether Davey or Lamb will actually stand?0
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What a mess. No doubt you'll try to pin this on Keir Hardie.Richard_Nabavi said:FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live0 -
I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.0
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Either a dramatic last minute shift which is what I suspect or some herding based on the implausibility of Corbyn getting so close0
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Tony Blair, surely?Jonathan said:
What a mess. No doubt you'll try to pin this on Keir Hardie.Richard_Nabavi said:FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live0 -
Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.0
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Mr. Jonathan, far too early to try and say.
Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely.0 -
Anyone have experience disputing a scratch on a foreign rental car (Spain)?0
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I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.0
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Almost certainly, but that's not in the least surprising since it hasn't got a majority. It's well-nigh impossible to be a good administration as a minority government in the UK.Jonathan said:Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
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Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.0
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a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”Richard_Nabavi said:FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live0 -
Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,0
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The normal YouGov poll had one set of assumptions, particularly on turnout.Richard_Nabavi said:I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.
The model had a different set of assumptions.0 -
Didn't they panic at the last minute and started wrenching the algorithm to subdue youth turnout?Richard_Nabavi said:I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.
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Its certainly sparking speculation:Roger said:Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/877566999223840768
Of course, it could be because this is her last Queen's Speech while we are in the EU.....0 -
I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.Mortimer said:
Partisan till the last, eh?Jonathan said:Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.0 -
They bottled it on their final poll and herdedRichard_Nabavi said:I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.
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Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.Chris said:Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,
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If I could get a hot blond twenty something Corbynista to "thank you" properly I would......nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
......paging SeanT........0 -
Yes, as I was reading from Prof James Chalmers it isn't an obstacle to Brexit as Scottish power can easily be overridden as part of the Union. Newton dunn's tweet had me initially worried but even this government wouldn't make that kind of oversight!CarlottaVance said:
a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”Richard_Nabavi said:FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live0 -
Even that is odd, because they didn't show much faith in their own model in that case.Pulpstar said:
They bottled it on their final poll and herdedRichard_Nabavi said:I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.
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Then whats all this hallabaloo about then?CarlottaVance said:
a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”Richard_Nabavi said:FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live0 -
Yougov:
Fair enough
As this is our final call before the election we made two minor changes to our method. The first is that rather than asking people which party they’d vote for, we showed respondents a list of the people actually standing in their constituency and asked which one they would vote for. Hopefully this will help pick up any tactical vote considerations and remove any issue of people saying they would vote UKIP or Green in seats where UKIP or the Greens are not actually standing.
Herding
Secondly we have reallocated those respondents who say don’t know, but who also say they are very likely to vote (voters who my colleague Adam McDonnell described earlier in the campaign as “true undecided”). We assume uncertain voters who say they “don’t know” at this stage won’t actually vote, but those who say they are 8+/10 certain to vote we have reallocated back to the party they voted for in 2015.
Look at the undecided break here
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election0 -
Fair enough. Sounded more accusatory! Good old difficulty of tone interpretation online strikes againJonathan said:
I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.Mortimer said:
Partisan till the last, eh?Jonathan said:Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.0 -
Interesting that after Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be a red white and blue Brexit May now says she's looking for a consensus. Sorry but too late. No one believes her.....
and why are the the Tories putting Boris Johnson Jacob Rees Mogg and Andrea Leadsom in front of the cameras if they're looking for consensus?
They couldn't have chosen 3 more incendiary candidates. All they were short of was Michael Gove......0 -
Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
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Possibly, but it's not the worst administration. The candidates for that are all Labour.Jonathan said:Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
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Hedged their bets.Richard_Nabavi said:
Even that is odd, because they didn't show much faith in their own model in that case.Pulpstar said:
They bottled it on their final poll and herdedRichard_Nabavi said:I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.
Survation didn't. They weren't going to have a rerun of their 2015 debacle. Game Set Match Damien.0 -
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Proof there IS a God, multiverses another matter:
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/8775665767313653760 -
Or even Misty BlueRobD said:
What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue?Roger said:Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMONGMDEerI0 -
Nats stamping their feet about process? Who'd have thunk it.nunu said:
Then whats all this hallabaloo about then?CarlottaVance said:
a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”Richard_Nabavi said:FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live0 -
What's wrong with Mogg or Leadsom? They might infuriate people on here but what are they to the average punter?Roger said:Interesting that after Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be a red white and blue Brexit May now says she's looking for a consensus. Sorry but too late. No one believes her.....
Why are the the Tories putting Boris Johnson Jacob Rees Mogg and Andrea Leadsom in front of the cameras if they're looking for consensus? They couldn't have chosen 3 more incendiary candidates. All they were short of was Michael Gove......0 -
Rees Mogg is pretty respected across the spectrum, he certainly knows his stuff.Roger said:Interesting that after Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be a red white and blue Brexit May now says she's looking for a consensus. Sorry but too late. No one believes her.....
and why are the the Tories putting Boris Johnson Jacob Rees Mogg and Andrea Leadsom in front of the cameras if they're looking for consensus?
They couldn't have chosen 3 more incendiary candidates. All they were short of was Michael Gove......0 -
Weirdly not a wind up. Just reflecting on a remarkable fortnight and two years. Thus was not how Cameron planned it in May 2015. I wonder what he would do if someone had whispered in his ears what victory meant.Mortimer said:
Fair enough. Sounded more accusatory! Good old difficulty of tone interpretation online strikes againJonathan said:
I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.Mortimer said:
Partisan till the last, eh?Jonathan said:Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.0 -
I don't believe in polls but I do believe in God..........0
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Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.Jonathan said:
I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.Mortimer said:
Partisan till the last, eh?Jonathan said:Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.
TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?0 -
A friend of mine ballot box Labour switched last weekend. Normally votes Tory in GEs.0
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Record Bookmaker Profits.rkrkrk said:
Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.Jonathan said:
I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.Mortimer said:
Partisan till the last, eh?Jonathan said:Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.
TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?0 -
Hell hath frozen over! I'm delighted he's come to this conclusion. Who's left in the denial camp?Tarzan? Farron?nunu said:Proof there IS a God, multiverses another matter:
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/8775665767313653760 -
How else will we sort the young sheep from the old goats ?Morris_Dancer said:Any murmurings on whether Davey or Lamb will actually stand?
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We're now branched into one of the more unlikely universes - where Corbyn quite possibly now becomes PM. Still following President Trump & Leicester City triumphant in the premier league, it fits I suppose.0
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Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.Stark_Dawning said:
Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
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It has been an amazing possum strategy.nunu said:
Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.Stark_Dawning said:
Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
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Yes, and Gentleman John kept us out of the Euro and the (albeit fleetingly) the Social Chapter. I suspect we'll be looking back at that level of negotiating skill with awe in the coming months. And he also created the National Lottery, which turned out to be a roaring success, despite everyone willing it to fail at the time. And was the Cones Hotline really such a bad idea?rkrkrk said:
Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.Jonathan said:
I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.Mortimer said:
Partisan till the last, eh?Jonathan said:Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.
TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?0 -
RGB:RobD said:
What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue?Roger said:Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.
EU Blue: 0 : 51 : 153
Tory Blue: 0 : 135 : 220
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Europe
http://blog.richardallen.co.uk/uk-political-party-web-colours/
Curiously Labour's 'red' has a little bit of 'blue' in it - and no green...
In any case, the queen's outfit was more RGB 100, 214, 213 or 'moderate blue' - having a bit of red in there as well....0 -
Theresa dreams of the cones hotline success, but could not get such a politically charged measure into the QS.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, and Gentleman John kept us out of the Euro and the (albeit fleetingly) the Social Chapter. I suspect we'll be looking back at that level of negotiating skill with awe in the coming months. And he also created the National Lottery, which turned out to be a roaring success, despite everyone willing it to fail at the time. And was the Cones Hotline really such a bad idea?rkrkrk said:
Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.Jonathan said:
I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.Mortimer said:
Partisan till the last, eh?Jonathan said:Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.
TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?0 -
The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.Richard_Nabavi said:
Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.Chris said:Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,
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He caused many bettors on here to reverse ferret!Pulpstar said:
It has been an amazing possum strategy.nunu said:
Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.Stark_Dawning said:
Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
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He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard leftnunu said:
Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.Stark_Dawning said:
Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
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He did give us Maarstricht, eurosceptics and UKIP too.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, and Gentleman John kept us out of the Euro and the (albeit fleetingly) the Social Chapter. I suspect we'll be looking back at that level of negotiating skill with awe in the coming months. And he also created the National Lottery, which turned out to be a roaring success, despite everyone willing it to fail at the time. And was the Cones Hotline really such a bad idea?rkrkrk said:
Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.Jonathan said:
I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.Mortimer said:
Partisan till the last, eh?Jonathan said:Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.
TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?0 -
How very neutral.CarlottaVance said:
RGB:RobD said:
What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue?Roger said:Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.
EU Blue: 0 : 51 : 153
Tory Blue: 0 : 135 : 220
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Europe
http://blog.richardallen.co.uk/uk-political-party-web-colours/
Curiously Labour's 'red' has a little bit of 'blue' in it - and no green...
In any case, the queen's outfit was more RGB 100, 214, 213 or 'moderate blue' - having a bit of red in there as well....
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England take a wicket first ball.
Tentative evidence of a god, I suppose - but it is only limited overs...0 -
There's another universe where Cameron wins the EuRef narrowly and is forced to quit by the headbangers who make Johnson PM.Pulpstar said:We're now branched into one of the more unlikely universes - where Corbyn quite possibly now becomes PM. Still following President Trump & Leicester City triumphant in the premier league, it fits I suppose.
How does Corbyn do in that universe?0 -
Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?Chris said:
The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.Richard_Nabavi said:
Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.Chris said:Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,
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Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.
I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:
https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr0 -
0
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Yes, the methodology for the individual polls was changed at the last minute. So strictly there are three varieties of YouGov:Pulpstar said:
They bottled it on their final poll and herdedRichard_Nabavi said:I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.
(1) The large model
(2) The individual polls, original formulatiom
(3) The indicidual polls, last-minute panic formulation.0 -
Passed the demo in Parliament Square on my way home. There were literally tens of them.0
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Actually had a plan for what would follow a Leave vote...Jonathan said:
Weirdly not a wind up. Just reflecting on a remarkable fortnight and two years. Thus was not how Cameron planned it in May 2015. I wonder what he would do if someone had whispered in his ears what victory meant.Mortimer said:
Fair enough. Sounded more accusatory! Good old difficulty of tone interpretation online strikes againJonathan said:
I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.Mortimer said:
Partisan till the last, eh?Jonathan said:Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.
You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.0 -
Dozens surely.ThomasNashe said:Passed the demo in Parliament Square on my way home. There were literally tens of them.
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It's this sort of post that makes PB so great.CarlottaVance said:
RGB:RobD said:
What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue?Roger said:Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.
EU Blue: 0 : 51 : 153
Tory Blue: 0 : 135 : 220
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Europe
http://blog.richardallen.co.uk/uk-political-party-web-colours/
Curiously Labour's 'red' has a little bit of 'blue' in it - and no green...
In any case, the queen's outfit was more RGB 100, 214, 213 or 'moderate blue' - having a bit of red in there as well....0 -
SDLP thoughts on DUP deal etc. https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/06/21/sdlp-leader-anticipates-the-con-dup-money-bonus/0
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Come on, SA; you're not even trying.
(edit, That's better, ABdV)0 -
Well, the large model was based on a huge amount of data, and also apparently on quite sophisticated analysis. In general terms it always sounded to me like a sensible way to analyse the data. The only criticism I saw was based on the fact people found the projections unbelievable.RobD said:
Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?Chris said:
The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.Richard_Nabavi said:
Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.Chris said:Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,
So I think the view that they just got lucky would need to be backed up with some evidence.
[Edited to add: Maybe your comment was based on the view that the unexpected result was due to big changes in turnout patterns since previous elections. I don't know that we have the data to show that yet.]0 -
The voting percentages were very similar between the regular polls and the large model until they put in their final-poll methodology change.RobD said:
Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?Chris said:
The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.Richard_Nabavi said:
Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.Chris said:Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,
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Good for the firefighters. I don't want to live in a country where, for instance, someone called out to rescue a person who's fallen in a lake won't go in to rescue them in case it "breaks protocols".tlg86 said:Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.
I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:
https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr0 -
What do you mean? The story as described in the article sounds a bit unlikely, but it doesn't suggest that the firefighters did a bad job.tlg86 said:Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.
I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:
https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr0 -
Corbyn's speech was an alternative universe. His argument seemed to be we got lots of votes therefore we have a mandate and you don't even though you got more. It was weird - he has a good style though and made you want to believe him more ham robo-may.Brom said:
He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard leftnunu said:
Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.Stark_Dawning said:
Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
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he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.Brom said:
He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard leftnunu said:
Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.Stark_Dawning said:
Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
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Of course, but I think questions will be asked about what actually happened. Incidentally, it very much shoots the fox about numbers. They were there in time to put out the fridge fire.AndyJS said:
Good for the firefighters. I don't want to live in a country where, for instance, someone called out to rescue a person who's fallen in a lake won't go in to rescue them in case it "breaks protocols".tlg86 said:Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.
I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:
https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr
Also, I haven't seen this reported on the TV news which is pretty poor in my opinion.0 -
Which is going to make it hard to know which YouGov polls to believe in future.Chris said:Yes, the methodology for the individual polls was changed at the last minute. So strictly there are three varieties of YouGov:
(1) The large model
(2) The individual polls, original formulatiom
(3) The indicidual polls, last-minute panic formulation.
Also, if as you say the large model was based on experience of turnout in 2010 and 2015, isn't that quite similar to what the other pollsters did?0 -
So why is May still Pm? Looks like complacency.nunu said:
he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.Brom said:
He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard leftnunu said:
Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.Stark_Dawning said:
Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
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A-1
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She's the sacrificial lamb of Brexit.Jonathan said:
So why is May still Pm? Looks like complacency.nunu said:
he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.Brom said:
He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard leftnunu said:
Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.Stark_Dawning said:
Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
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It certainly leaves a few more questions asked. How likely is it that firefighters wouldn't notice that they hadn't totally put out the fire? Perhaps the fridge wasn't the cause of the big fire.Dadge said:
What do you mean? The story as described in the article sounds a bit unlikely, but it doesn't suggest that the firefighters did a bad job.tlg86 said:Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.
I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:
https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr0 -
Yes, they were a lot closer. But also the model, unlike the individual polls, included a seat-by-seat projection of the results. My impression is that was more accurate than, say, Survation's percentages plugged into third-party seat projectors.Stereotomy said:
The voting percentages were very similar between the regular polls and the large model until they put in their final-poll methodology change.RobD said:
Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?Chris said:
The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.Richard_Nabavi said:
Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.Chris said:Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,
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I'd say I'll never let polls affect my thinking again but I will, I'm a creature of habit.0
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It's a game. The narrative is that May's a loser and he's the cock of the walk. He's milking it for all he's worth. The image now is that he's strong and May's weak and he wants to maintain that in the hope that there's an election soon.Nemtynakht said:
Corbyn's speech was an alternative universe. His argument seemed to be we got lots of votes therefore we have a mandate and you don't even though you got more. It was weird - he has a good style though and made you want to believe him more ham robo-may.Brom said:
He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard leftnunu said:
Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.Stark_Dawning said:
Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
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My impression is it was a lot more sophisticated. Certainly the results were very different.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is going to make it hard to know which YouGov polls to believe in future.Chris said:Yes, the methodology for the individual polls was changed at the last minute. So strictly there are three varieties of YouGov:
(1) The large model
(2) The individual polls, original formulatiom
(3) The indicidual polls, last-minute panic formulation.
Also, if as you say the large model was based on experience of turnout in 2010 and 2015, isn't that quite similar to what the other pollsters did?
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Transition from May to PM X is inevitable, but the transition is still relatively tricky to handle, it's one reason some just gave up and suggested letting Corbyn run a minority government even though the numbers work even less than Tory minority (or indeed 'progressive alliance' vs ConDUP), simply because it is difficult and likely to lead to Labour winning in 2022 (assuming we get that far).Jonathan said:
So why is May still Pm? Looks like complacency.nunu said:
he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.Brom said:
He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard leftnunu said:
Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.Stark_Dawning said:
Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.nunu said:I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.
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Why do people pay for polls that rarely work?
Is it just to create headlines and sell fish and chip wrapping?0 -
Good grief all those Beefeater CorbynistasCarlottaVance said:
Its certainly sparking speculation:Roger said:Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/877566999223840768
Of course, it could be because this is her last Queen's Speech while we are in the EU.....0 -
The dozen has been banned by the EU.Jonathan said:
Dozens surely.ThomasNashe said:Passed the demo in Parliament Square on my way home. There were literally tens of them.
That's why we're leaving.0
