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Beverley_C

1st - like America on the moon

Jonathan

POTMWAS

Beverley_C

Do the bottom 3 pollsters get eliminated from the next round?

GIN1138

KABOOM!!!!!!!!!

Chris

ICM = cardboard standard

Richard_Nabavi

It's ironic that the biggest error was that of Labour's own pollster.

Morris_Dancer

F1: I did have several other betting ideas before I became Supreme Ruler of the Universe, but I'll wait until tomorrow to contemplate those properly. I'll also update on whether, as Mr. Eagles suggested, those bets get made null and void. If not, I'll wait until right before the race and then put hedging bets on the reverse result.

On-topic: who'd be a pollster? In particular, the last election had a large number of very odd and ultra-close results. We could easily have had a blue majority. Or a very bad case of the Trots.

Richard_Nabavi

FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

Mortimer

Erm, in what world is a law that puts all European laws into the statute books not going to pass Holyrood?

Morris_Dancer

Any murmurings on whether Davey or Lamb will actually stand?

Jonathan

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

What a mess. No doubt you'll try to pin this on Keir Hardie.

Richard_Nabavi

I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

Roger

Either a dramatic last minute shift which is what I suspect or some herding based on the implausibility of Corbyn getting so close

Richard_Nabavi

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

What a mess. No doubt you'll try to pin this on Keir Hardie.

Tony Blair, surely?

Jonathan

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jonathan, far too early to try and say.

Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely.

Mortimer

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Partisan till the last, eh?

You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

rkrkrk

Anyone have experience disputing a scratch on a foreign rental car (Spain)?

calum

Old news !

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1379124-brexit-holyrood-to-have-consent-vote-on-repealing-eu-law/

nunu

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Richard_Nabavi

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Almost certainly, but that's not in the least surprising since it hasn't got a majority. It's well-nigh impossible to be a good administration as a minority government in the UK.

Roger

Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

CarlottaVance

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”

Chris

Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

The normal YouGov poll had one set of assumptions, particularly on turnout.

The model had a different set of assumptions.

Pulpstar

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election

Stark_Dawning

Richard_Nabavi said:

I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

Didn't they panic at the last minute and started wrenching the algorithm to subdue youth turnout?

CarlottaVance

Roger said:

Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

Its certainly sparking speculation:

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/877566999223840768

Of course, it could be because this is her last Queen's Speech while we are in the EU.....

Jonathan

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Partisan till the last, eh?

You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

They bottled it on their final poll and herded

Richard_Nabavi

Chris said:

Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.

nunu

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

If I could get a hot blond twenty something Corbynista to "thank you" properly I would......

......paging SeanT........

Brom

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”

Yes, as I was reading from Prof James Chalmers it isn't an obstacle to Brexit as Scottish power can easily be overridden as part of the Union. Newton dunn's tweet had me initially worried but even this government wouldn't make that kind of oversight!

Richard_Nabavi

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

They bottled it on their final poll and herded

Even that is odd, because they didn't show much faith in their own model in that case.

nunu

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”

Then whats all this hallabaloo about then?

RobD

Roger said:

Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue?

Pulpstar

Yougov:

Fair enough

As this is our final call before the election we made two minor changes to our method. The first is that rather than asking people which party they’d vote for, we showed respondents a list of the people actually standing in their constituency and asked which one they would vote for. Hopefully this will help pick up any tactical vote considerations and remove any issue of people saying they would vote UKIP or Green in seats where UKIP or the Greens are not actually standing.

Herding

Secondly we have reallocated those respondents who say don’t know, but who also say they are very likely to vote (voters who my colleague Adam McDonnell described earlier in the campaign as “true undecided”). We assume uncertain voters who say they “don’t know” at this stage won’t actually vote, but those who say they are 8+/10 certain to vote we have reallocated back to the party they voted for in 2015.

Look at the undecided break here

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2017-united-kingdom-general-election

Jonathan

RobD said:

Roger said:

Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue?

Yellow stars on her hat.

Mortimer

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Partisan till the last, eh?

You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.

Fair enough. Sounded more accusatory! Good old difficulty of tone interpretation online strikes again

Roger

Interesting that after Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be a red white and blue Brexit May now says she's looking for a consensus. Sorry but too late. No one believes her.....

and why are the the Tories putting Boris Johnson Jacob Rees Mogg and Andrea Leadsom in front of the cameras if they're looking for consensus?

They couldn't have chosen 3 more incendiary candidates. All they were short of was Michael Gove......

Stark_Dawning

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.

KentRising

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Possibly, but it's not the worst administration. The candidates for that are all Labour.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

They bottled it on their final poll and herded

Even that is odd, because they didn't show much faith in their own model in that case.

Hedged their bets.

Survation didn't. They weren't going to have a rerun of their 2015 debacle. Game Set Match Damien.

RobD

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Roger said:

Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue?

Yellow stars on her hat.

Na, they are lumps of gold representing the wealth the Tories steal from the poor and disabled.

GIN1138

RobD said:

Roger said:

Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue?

Or even Misty Blue

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMONGMDEerI

nunu

Proof there IS a God, multiverses another matter:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/877566576731365376

RobD

nunu said:

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT: There's more on the possible Scottish veto of (parts of) the Repeal Bill here in the last entry (17:49):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/jun/21/queens-speech-2017-theresa-may-promises-humility-and-resolve-as-she-publishes-legislative-programme-politics-live

a political convention that does not give rise to a legal obligation that can be enforced in the courts.”

Then whats all this hallabaloo about then?

Nats stamping their feet about process? Who'd have thunk it.

KentRising

Roger said:

Interesting that after Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be a red white and blue Brexit May now says she's looking for a consensus. Sorry but too late. No one believes her.....

Why are the the Tories putting Boris Johnson Jacob Rees Mogg and Andrea Leadsom in front of the cameras if they're looking for consensus? They couldn't have chosen 3 more incendiary candidates. All they were short of was Michael Gove......

What's wrong with Mogg or Leadsom? They might infuriate people on here but what are they to the average punter?

Brom

Roger said:

Interesting that after Brexit means Brexit and it's going to be a red white and blue Brexit May now says she's looking for a consensus. Sorry but too late. No one believes her.....

and why are the the Tories putting Boris Johnson Jacob Rees Mogg and Andrea Leadsom in front of the cameras if they're looking for consensus?

They couldn't have chosen 3 more incendiary candidates. All they were short of was Michael Gove......

Rees Mogg is pretty respected across the spectrum, he certainly knows his stuff.

Jonathan

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Partisan till the last, eh?

You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.

Fair enough. Sounded more accusatory! Good old difficulty of tone interpretation online strikes again

Weirdly not a wind up. Just reflecting on a remarkable fortnight and two years. Thus was not how Cameron planned it in May 2015. I wonder what he would do if someone had whispered in his ears what victory meant.

nunu

I don't believe in polls but I do believe in God..........

rkrkrk

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Partisan till the last, eh?

You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.

Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.
TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?

Pulpstar

A friend of mine ballot box Labour switched last weekend. Normally votes Tory in GEs.

Jonathan

rkrkrk said:

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Partisan till the last, eh?

You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.

Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.
TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?

Record Bookmaker Profits.

Brom

nunu said:

Proof there IS a God, multiverses another matter:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/877566576731365376

Hell hath frozen over! I'm delighted he's come to this conclusion. Who's left in the denial camp?Tarzan? Farron?

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Any murmurings on whether Davey or Lamb will actually stand?

How else will we sort the young sheep from the old goats ?

Pulpstar

We're now branched into one of the more unlikely universes - where Corbyn quite possibly now becomes PM. Still following President Trump & Leicester City triumphant in the premier league, it fits I suppose.

nunu

Stark_Dawning said:

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.

Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.

Pulpstar

nunu said:

Stark_Dawning said:

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.

Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.

It has been an amazing possum strategy.

Stark_Dawning

rkrkrk said:

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Partisan till the last, eh?

You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.

Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.
TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?

Yes, and Gentleman John kept us out of the Euro and the (albeit fleetingly) the Social Chapter. I suspect we'll be looking back at that level of negotiating skill with awe in the coming months. And he also created the National Lottery, which turned out to be a roaring success, despite everyone willing it to fail at the time. And was the Cones Hotline really such a bad idea?

CarlottaVance

RobD said:

Roger said:

Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue?

RGB:
EU Blue: 0 : 51 : 153
Tory Blue: 0 : 135 : 220

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Europe
http://blog.richardallen.co.uk/uk-political-party-web-colours/

Curiously Labour's 'red' has a little bit of 'blue' in it - and no green...

In any case, the queen's outfit was more RGB 100, 214, 213 or 'moderate blue' - having a bit of red in there as well....

Jonathan

Stark_Dawning said:

rkrkrk said:

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Partisan till the last, eh?

You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.

Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.
TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?

Yes, and Gentleman John kept us out of the Euro and the (albeit fleetingly) the Social Chapter. I suspect we'll be looking back at that level of negotiating skill with awe in the coming months. And he also created the National Lottery, which turned out to be a roaring success, despite everyone willing it to fail at the time. And was the Cones Hotline really such a bad idea?

Theresa dreams of the cones hotline success, but could not get such a politically charged measure into the QS.

Chris

Richard_Nabavi said:

Chris said:

Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.

The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.

nunu

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

Stark_Dawning said:

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.

Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.

It has been an amazing possum strategy.

He caused many bettors on here to reverse ferret!

Brom

nunu said:

Stark_Dawning said:

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.

Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.

He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left

Jonathan

Stark_Dawning said:

rkrkrk said:

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Partisan till the last, eh?

You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.

Major presided over economic recovery and made progress on northern ireland.
TM hasn't been there long but what successes can she point to?

Yes, and Gentleman John kept us out of the Euro and the (albeit fleetingly) the Social Chapter. I suspect we'll be looking back at that level of negotiating skill with awe in the coming months. And he also created the National Lottery, which turned out to be a roaring success, despite everyone willing it to fail at the time. And was the Cones Hotline really such a bad idea?

He did give us Maarstricht, eurosceptics and UKIP too.

RobD

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Roger said:

Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue?

RGB:
EU Blue: 0 : 51 : 153
Tory Blue: 0 : 135 : 220

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Europe
http://blog.richardallen.co.uk/uk-political-party-web-colours/

Curiously Labour's 'red' has a little bit of 'blue' in it - and no green...

In any case, the queen's outfit was more RGB 100, 214, 213 or 'moderate blue' - having a bit of red in there as well....

How very neutral.

Nigelb

England take a wicket first ball.

Tentative evidence of a god, I suppose - but it is only limited overs...

nunu

Pulpstar said:

We're now branched into one of the more unlikely universes - where Corbyn quite possibly now becomes PM. Still following President Trump & Leicester City triumphant in the premier league, it fits I suppose.

There's another universe where Cameron wins the EuRef narrowly and is forced to quit by the headbangers who make Johnson PM.

How does Corbyn do in that universe?

RobD

Chris said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Chris said:

Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.

The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.

Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?

tlg86

Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.

I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:

https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr

AndyJS

Brent Crude down to 44.50

https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Chris

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I still don't understand how YouGov could have both been out by 6 points in their headline poll, and about right in the modelling derived from their polls. It's very odd. It was one reason why I was sceptical of the model.

They bottled it on their final poll and herded

Yes, the methodology for the individual polls was changed at the last minute. So strictly there are three varieties of YouGov:
(1) The large model
(2) The individual polls, original formulatiom
(3) The indicidual polls, last-minute panic formulation.

ThomasNashe

Passed the demo in Parliament Square on my way home. There were literally tens of them.

ThreeQuidder

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Mortimer said:

Jonathan said:

Is this the worst Tory administration since the war? Discuss.

Partisan till the last, eh?

You lost. And worse, the hard left are now cemented at the top of a once great party.

I asked a perfectly reasonable question. It just occurred to me that John Major is actually better than this lot. Shocking though that thought might be. I guess they're rivalled only by Heath.

Fair enough. Sounded more accusatory! Good old difficulty of tone interpretation online strikes again

Weirdly not a wind up. Just reflecting on a remarkable fortnight and two years. Thus was not how Cameron planned it in May 2015. I wonder what he would do if someone had whispered in his ears what victory meant.

Actually had a plan for what would follow a Leave vote...

Jonathan

ThomasNashe said:

Passed the demo in Parliament Square on my way home. There were literally tens of them.

Dozens surely.

tlg86

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Roger said:

Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

What's the difference between EU blue and Tory blue?

RGB:
EU Blue: 0 : 51 : 153
Tory Blue: 0 : 135 : 220

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Europe
http://blog.richardallen.co.uk/uk-political-party-web-colours/

Curiously Labour's 'red' has a little bit of 'blue' in it - and no green...

In any case, the queen's outfit was more RGB 100, 214, 213 or 'moderate blue' - having a bit of red in there as well....

It's this sort of post that makes PB so great.

Dadge

SDLP thoughts on DUP deal etc. https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/06/21/sdlp-leader-anticipates-the-con-dup-money-bonus/

Nigelb

Come on, SA; you're not even trying.

(edit, That's better, ABdV)

Chris

RobD said:

Chris said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Chris said:

Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.

The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.

Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?

Well, the large model was based on a huge amount of data, and also apparently on quite sophisticated analysis. In general terms it always sounded to me like a sensible way to analyse the data. The only criticism I saw was based on the fact people found the projections unbelievable.

So I think the view that they just got lucky would need to be backed up with some evidence.

[Edited to add: Maybe your comment was based on the view that the unexpected result was due to big changes in turnout patterns since previous elections. I don't know that we have the data to show that yet.]

Stereotomy

RobD said:

Chris said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Chris said:

Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.

The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.

Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?

The voting percentages were very similar between the regular polls and the large model until they put in their final-poll methodology change.

AndyJS

tlg86 said:

Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.

I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:

https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr

Good for the firefighters. I don't want to live in a country where, for instance, someone called out to rescue a person who's fallen in a lake won't go in to rescue them in case it "breaks protocols".

nunu

http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/20/people-are-pretending-they-lost-homes-in-grenfell-tower-to-get-money-6721541/

Dadge

tlg86 said:

Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.

I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:

https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr

What do you mean? The story as described in the article sounds a bit unlikely, but it doesn't suggest that the firefighters did a bad job.

Nemtynakht

Brom said:

nunu said:

Stark_Dawning said:

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.

Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.

He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left

Corbyn's speech was an alternative universe. His argument seemed to be we got lots of votes therefore we have a mandate and you don't even though you got more. It was weird - he has a good style though and made you want to believe him more ham robo-may.

nunu

Brom said:

nunu said:

Stark_Dawning said:

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.

Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.

He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left

he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.

tlg86

AndyJS said:

tlg86 said:

Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.

I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:

https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr

Good for the firefighters. I don't want to live in a country where, for instance, someone called out to rescue a person who's fallen in a lake won't go in to rescue them in case it "breaks protocols".

Of course, but I think questions will be asked about what actually happened. Incidentally, it very much shoots the fox about numbers. They were there in time to put out the fridge fire.

Also, I haven't seen this reported on the TV news which is pretty poor in my opinion.

Richard_Nabavi

Chris said:

Yes, the methodology for the individual polls was changed at the last minute. So strictly there are three varieties of YouGov:
(1) The large model
(2) The individual polls, original formulatiom
(3) The indicidual polls, last-minute panic formulation.

Which is going to make it hard to know which YouGov polls to believe in future.

Also, if as you say the large model was based on experience of turnout in 2010 and 2015, isn't that quite similar to what the other pollsters did?

Jonathan

nunu said:

Brom said:

nunu said:

Stark_Dawning said:

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.

Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.

He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left

he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.

So why is May still Pm? Looks like complacency.

Freggles

A

RobD

Jonathan said:

nunu said:

Brom said:

nunu said:

Stark_Dawning said:

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.

Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.

He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left

he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.

So why is May still Pm? Looks like complacency.

She's the sacrificial lamb of Brexit.

tlg86

Dadge said:

tlg86 said:

Delighted to see that Diane Abbott has made a full recovery.

I've just heard Jeremy Corbyn say that the firefighters at Grenfell Tower did a great job. I wouldn't be so sure:

https://tinyurl.com/y72bwxgr

What do you mean? The story as described in the article sounds a bit unlikely, but it doesn't suggest that the firefighters did a bad job.

It certainly leaves a few more questions asked. How likely is it that firefighters wouldn't notice that they hadn't totally put out the fire? Perhaps the fridge wasn't the cause of the big fire.

Chris

Stereotomy said:

RobD said:

Chris said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Chris said:

Sorry to harp on this, but we need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The final projection of the big model had Labour at 38% - therefore an understatement of only two points; almost as good as Survation,

Indeed, but presumably they used the same methodology and weighting, so you'd expect similar results. I suppose the difference might just have been statistical error, but it does seem a bit odd all the same.

The methodology was different for the large model. For example, in the large model, turnout was based on historical turnout for the different demographic groups in 2010 and 2015.

Hm, so they just got lucky with the model then?

The voting percentages were very similar between the regular polls and the large model until they put in their final-poll methodology change.

Yes, they were a lot closer. But also the model, unlike the individual polls, included a seat-by-seat projection of the results. My impression is that was more accurate than, say, Survation's percentages plugged into third-party seat projectors.

kle4

I'd say I'll never let polls affect my thinking again but I will, I'm a creature of habit.

Dadge

Nemtynakht said:

Brom said:

nunu said:

Stark_Dawning said:

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.

Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.

He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left

Corbyn's speech was an alternative universe. His argument seemed to be we got lots of votes therefore we have a mandate and you don't even though you got more. It was weird - he has a good style though and made you want to believe him more ham robo-may.

It's a game. The narrative is that May's a loser and he's the cock of the walk. He's milking it for all he's worth. The image now is that he's strong and May's weak and he wants to maintain that in the hope that there's an election soon.

Chris

Richard_Nabavi said:

Chris said:

Yes, the methodology for the individual polls was changed at the last minute. So strictly there are three varieties of YouGov:
(1) The large model
(2) The individual polls, original formulatiom
(3) The indicidual polls, last-minute panic formulation.

Which is going to make it hard to know which YouGov polls to believe in future.

Also, if as you say the large model was based on experience of turnout in 2010 and 2015, isn't that quite similar to what the other pollsters did?

My impression is it was a lot more sophisticated. Certainly the results were very different.

kle4

Jonathan said:

nunu said:

Brom said:

nunu said:

Stark_Dawning said:

nunu said:

I don't think I've expressed this before. But as a LEAVER I must say thank you a million times to Corbyn.Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for not campaigning for REMAIN as you did this GE. We couldn't have done it without you.

Jezza's a sly old fox to be sure. He kept his head down during the EU Ref (making us all think he was useless) and got exactly what he wanted - Brexit, Dave destroyed and May in. Then he unleashed his campaigning genius during the GE and destroyed May. I don't now think anything is beyond his cunning.

Soon he will of seen of 2 Tory PM's. He has been underestimated this whole time, and many PB tories are still doing it. smh.

He was ridiculed but now he's definitely a serious threat. However seeing off 2 PMs and failing to take office is something of a Pyrrhic victory, the most popular kind of victories amongst the hard left

he only needs a small swing towards him to become biggest party and therefore PM. We must not be complacent.

So why is May still Pm? Looks like complacency.

Transition from May to PM X is inevitable, but the transition is still relatively tricky to handle, it's one reason some just gave up and suggested letting Corbyn run a minority government even though the numbers work even less than Tory minority (or indeed 'progressive alliance' vs ConDUP), simply because it is difficult and likely to lead to Labour winning in 2022 (assuming we get that far).

Jonathan

Why do people pay for polls that rarely work?

Is it just to create headlines and sell fish and chip wrapping?

Roger

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Even the Queen doesn't approve of Brexit. She's making a point by wearing EU blue.

Its certainly sparking speculation:

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/877566999223840768

Of course, it could be because this is her last Queen's Speech while we are in the EU.....

Good grief all those Beefeater Corbynistas

SandyRentool

Jonathan said:

ThomasNashe said:

Passed the demo in Parliament Square on my way home. There were literally tens of them.

Dozens surely.

The dozen has been banned by the EU.

That's why we're leaving.