politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs appear to have chosen their next two leaders without a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs appear to have chosen their next two leaders without a single vote being cast
The veteran former Business Secretary, Sir Vince Cable, has now moved to a 60%+ chance of becoming Farron’s successor following an extraordinary 36 hours when the party appears to have decided who should get the job AND who should succeed Vince.
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Edit: on second thoughts, that is probably why May is still there -- she is 60 and has not gone out of her way to discourage speculation about stepping down before the next election.
Sky News has been told the MPs informed whips that the economic impact of a "cliff-edge" Brexit, alongside the failure of the Conservatives to win a majority for its manifesto, should lead to a rethink of the position that "no deal is better than a bad deal".
http://news.sky.com/story/amp/no-brexit-deal-unacceptable-30-tory-mps-tell-number-10-10921780
As for Jo Swinson, have Lib Dem members not worked out she is a girl yet?
I guess that shows how stupid MPs can be.
If the deal on offer is financially worse than no deal they want too take the worst option.
It is a view. All views are pretty useless without the facts and terms of the negotiations. When you know what is available you can make a choice. Posturing before then is for precocious children.
I was expecting a long sermon on how 'appointing leaders' was a bad thing and a 'full election campaign' would allow them to demonstrate their campaigning skills.
But perhaps that only applies to Tories?
poor old tezza
she holds an election so the headbangers cant blackmail her and instead the Diane Abbott wing of the party do
Edit. Personally I think the best stop Vince candidate is Vince Cable
LDs dont do either
And standing behind Tim Farron at Farron's resignation he also looked old and knackered.
She might be a future leader - but surely too soon?
http://www.libdems.org.uk/layla_moran
I think Lamb will stand, and certainly there needs to be a contested election, coronations rarely end well. There needs to be a debate on future direction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXMapqiDsqs
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/877405876520275969
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/877409140963979264
Cable car crash.... for starters
I don't think the LDs should follow the Tories down the cul de sac of tokenism. The leadership should be about ideas and direction, not chromosomes. The Tories wanted another Maggie that way, and got a female Gordon Brown without the personal charm.
The newbie MP's need to prove themselves in the Commons first.
I will be voting against Cable, principally because of his record.
But he is the wrong direction and tone for the Lib Dems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cable_(foreign_exchange)
Also it is a very negative message to be sending out.
Will have this old codger for a couple of years, by then we hope someone else will be up to doing the job.
The libdems should be sorting out a centre ground position that attracts sensible labour and sensible tory supporters.
Both parties are ripe for pillaging of supporters.
The Eurosceptics might be getting a taste of their own medicine.
They should go and make representations to May privately and always back her publicly.
Yes, just like the Eurosceptic 'bastards' didn't do with Major.
Edit: I don't mind his age. He is two weeks younger than me.
Watching the events of the past ten days, I can't help the feeling that I don't understand the UK any more, maybe being abroad for 80% of the past decade has finally caught up with me? The overriding feeling is that everything is becoming massively polarised and politicised, more American and not in a good way. Everyone needs to chill out and calm down the language and rhetoric before we see serious civil disobedience on the streets.
As one of many examples, how can a senior member of the opposition front bench honestly justify calling for a march on Parliament to overturn the election result, a week after the election took place? Did Corbyn actually suggest requisitioning property to deal with a few hundred homeless in a city with several hundred thousand hotel rooms?
Corbyn - missed in the chaos that was last week is that he did almost no reshuffle, all the big players are still on the backbenches and the cronies in the shadow cabinet so expect a return to their infighting in short order. Good to see that we saw McDonnell exposed for what he is with protests to overturn the election result. Corbyn needs to get a grip on this to avoid being overtaken by events and seen to support the summer's inevitable riots. His letter to the PM struck the right chord.
Farron - sad to see him go, and that the modern liberal party have such illiberal values and are overcome by PC. Lamb to replace him maybe? Cable too old and too much baggage, Swinson probably a little young but will make a good deputy.
No one does righteous indignation like Vince and now the youth have started voting it looks like he might be the perfect leader at the perfect moment.
George Osborne in particular is still the Class A c*** I described him as last week, he really needs to shut up given his very recent major role in government - his constant haranguing of his own party during the election campaign may well have been the difference between a majority and not, yet he appears determined to keep sticking the knife in and is outwardly enjoying it. Really not a good look.
On one positive note, The Last Leg was the best programme on television last week, brilliantly humourous (especially all the politicians in comedy sketches) but I challenge anyone to watch it without a big box of tissues close to hand. Awesome TV, well done Channel 4 and all involved
Via Alliance News - Soros not backward in coming forward once again:
Billionaire currency trader George Soros has said Britain is approaching a tipping point that could see the economy slow to such an extent that Brexit might even be reversed, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
Soros used Quantum Fund in 1992 to bet successfully that sterling was over-valued against the Deutsche Mark, forcing then-Prime Minister John Major to pull the pound out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.
Soros, in an article emailed to reporters, said economic reality was starting to catch up with a UK that voted 52% to 48% to leave the European Union in a June 23 referendum, according to Reuters.
"The moment of truth is fast approaching," Soros said in the article. "The fact is that Brexit is a lose-lose proposition, harmful both to Britain and the European Union. It cannot be undone, but people can change their minds."
Soros said that if Prime Minister Theresa May wanted to stay in power, she would have to change her approach and take account of young people who he said wanted to find well-paying jobs. She should, Soros said, seek to keep Britain in the EU's single market as Britain tried to extract itself.
Very good threadstarter which explains something that had puzzled me yesterday. I'm a bit annoyed with myself for altering my positions (I'm actually not that much down on Cable relative to beforehand, but then I was green on Betfair as well, and had planned to lay the other two when I could).
So, still ahead, but only on Ladbrokes. Bit of an admin cock-up on my part. Stupid Cable, announcing first.
Mr. Sandpit, yeah, think it was Mr. M. I didn't back that. Humbug.
You might not like the way he was toppled, but the LDs should be very grateful.
On tuition fees - I do think the LDs made a big effort to make it fairer, once they knew they would break their promise. I shudder to think what the Tories would have done unfettered...
Royal Mail a massive giveaway to investors and naively handled IMO.
Nb: not actual betting advice.
+1
For the older amongst us Cable & Witless
The issue the UK has, and has had for some time, is that economy is fundamentally unbalanced.
In the wake of the financial crisis, many countries were forced to fundamentally rebalance. Places like Spain needed to see dramatic falls in consumption and real wages to bring income and expense in-line.
We did the opposite. Osborne and Cameron pursued a consumption first policy keep the economy moving. And it worked: our economy bounced back more quickly than those that went the other direction. But the price was high. We now run a horrendous trade deficit, and the UK has the lowest saving rate in 40 years (and quite possibly all time; I don't have a longer time series).
This makes us uniquely vulnerable. If we slip into recession, the ability of the government to stimulate consumer spending (by adding yet more debt) is almost non-existent. Of course, we could add fiscal stimulus, but it is worth remembering that this would happen at a time when our budget deficit would be going in the wrong way already (and when our government debt levels are already elevated).
The UK economy looks very like Spain in 2007: a low savings rate, a huge trade deficit, and a complacent view that the economic model is working.
I fear we're going to hit a horrible economic roadblock almost completely unrelated to Brexit in the middle of Brexit negotiations. It will hammer the Conservative reputation for economic competence and potentially lead to a Corbyn or McDonnell government.
You can all start sending abuse now.
If your pension fund had bought shares at, say, 600p and they were now trading at 450p I doubt you'd be congratulation the government on a job well done
The dry-as-dust Conservative Eurosceptic vote is not one he will be chasing in the short term, so the fact he annoys many pbers in that demographic probably isn't fatal to his chances with the public.
As an aside, Osborne and Cameron need to take a fair amount of the blame. They chose the path of stimulating consumption over rebalancing. The solution to "too much debt" is never "more debt". Yet they will instead snipe from the sidelines.
And then we will elect the equivalent of a Syriza government.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/20/veteran-revolutionary-conviction-attacking-tory-chairman-behind/
The people will change their minds.
I guess there's only a few like me and Nick Clegg and Ken Clarke clinging to this now.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28250963
I'm just amused by the irony and hypocrisy.
Odds on the enthusiastic Corbynistas (including late converts) slinking away when it all goes south, as it will, in spades?