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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Picking the nation’s leader. Why the Conservatives are running

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  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    This feels like a watershed moment.

    Nobody wants neo-liberalism anymore.

    We are definitely at the start of a realignment of politics, I fully agree with that.

    But far from this being the end of Neo-Liberalism, I think it is its down, or at least rebirth.

    The expression 'Neo-Liberalism' has been used as an insult by populists, in an attempt to keep us down, classical Liberals, or Libertarians, as those of us who understand the philosophy prefer to be called, is growing, and growing on a wide front, Macron's expected victory in France today is its best example yet.

    I would highly recommend this video from the IEA about the their perception of the realignment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OlkZ968xM
    Ironic, isn't it?

    The French have elected probably the free market government in the world. While we can't decide between the illiberal Mrs May or the Marxist Mr Corbyn.
    It's difficult to resist the urge to make ad hominem arguments, but when sensible people make irrational choices because of how they feel (or how they think other people feel), and stick to them in the face of evidence of their mistake then we're in dire straights.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    May was a pastiche of Thatcher.

    Naturally they're now looking for a pastiche of Major to follow her.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    This feels like a watershed moment.

    Nobody wants neo-liberalism anymore.

    We are definitely at the start of a realignment of politics, I fully agree with that.

    But far from this being the end of Neo-Liberalism, I think it is its down, or at least rebirth.

    The expression 'Neo-Liberalism' has been used as an insult by populists, in an attempt to keep us down, classical Liberals, or Libertarians, as those of us who understand the philosophy prefer to be called, is growing, and growing on a wide front, Macron's expected victory in France today is its best example yet.

    I would highly recommend this video from the IEA about the their perception of the realignment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OlkZ968xM
    Ironic, isn't it?

    The French have elected probably the free market government in the world. While we can't decide between the illiberal Mrs May or the Marxist Mr Corbyn.

    Macron not a free market supporter.

    Macron seeking increased protectionist laws for French businesses to stop then being taken over by foreign companies.

    Sopurce: Recent Financial Times article.
  • Options
    Ok Alistair, given that the Conservatives can never do anything to please you, moving over with a near nigh 60 seat majority and 800,000 additional votes compared to the LOSERS of the GE, would give us the massively experienced Labour front bench aided by Rag, Tag and Bobtail coalition partners. What kind of bloody idiots do you think we are?
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Mr. Jason, none of them are in the Commons...

    I was just putting it out there as a hypothetical. You get my gist, though. We need something, and we need it fast.

    There's no hard and steadfast rule that says any nation must continue being wealthy or successful.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    GIN1138 said:

    Can anybody make sense of Labours Brexit position of staying in the customs union but leaving the single market?

    There is a good case to be made for staying in the customs union during a transitional period. It is also perfectly possible, as is the case with Turkey, to be in "a" customs union with the EU but not "the" customs union.

    The big advantage of the customs union is that there is no faffing around with origin rules, and goods can flow freely and largely absent of paperwork.

    It's also worth noting that Switzerland (not in the EEA, but in the single market for goods) has an agreement that is - to all practical purposes - is identical to being in a customs union with the EU. (All that is required is that Swiss exporters declare on their annual corporate tax return that any goods they exported to the EU met origin rules. Because the Swiss are exceptionally law abiding, and because Switzerland is landlocked and the opportunity for cheating is limited, this is considered by all sides to be sufficient.)
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Jason said:

    Floater said:
    A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.

    Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.

    We are living in dangerous times.
    Drama Queen
    On the other hand you will excuse the red team nearly anything
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited June 2017
    Jason said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thinking The Herdson's suggestion of putting Jezza in to "govern" with 260 seats might not be a bad option...

    The arithmetic doesn't even begin to support that idea. How on earth would you justify to the public letting Corbyn in and only allowing him to put through the commons the policies you approve of ?
    What do you do when he makes the first vote a confidence issue ?

    And it you do allow him to pass legislation, you'd effectively be outsourcing the leadership of the Tories to Corbyn.

    Utterly absurd - even before you begin to consider the executive powers the PM possesses which don't require commons votes.

    And the message would also be "we don't have a leader any better than May".
    Pitiful.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1923

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1924
    I think we went thru the 1923/4 scenario the other day. Very risky.
    Everything is risky for Con at the moment.

    Keep May for two years for Brexit - There might not be a Conservative Party left when she's finished.

    Change May for Hammond - He might be able to pull off Brexit but the public will find #TeamBlue
    According to Survation 13% of Labour voters are more likely to vote Tory under Hammond, 17% under Boris, 7% under Davis, 8% under Gove and 11% under Rudd. However 39% would be less likely to vote for the Tories under Boris, 26% less likely under Hammond, 29% under Davis, 32% under Rudd and 36% under Gove.
    http://survation.com/labour-party-now-polling-5-ahead-conservatives-public-say-theresa-may-resign-49-38/

    Of course a Corbyn McDonnell government would be a disaster for the country but ironically the quickest way to revive the Tories, we would be asking the IMF for a bailout in a year or two, the EU would make mincemeat of Corbyn and Starmer and the unions would be running the country
    We cannot hand over the reigns of power to Corbyn, no matter how tough it gets for the Tories. Corbyn has been emboldened, and has already starting talking about property theft from a demographic he despises.

    That's the tip of the iceberg. Imagine him as PM and McDonnell as chancellor. The damage they would do would sink this country.
    I agree but from a purely partisan perspective the fact that a Corbyn McDonnell government would probably be the worst government we have ever had does cause a few Tories to pause and consider letting them take charge for a few years, it would likely be a guaranteed Tory landslide at the subsequent general election
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,199
    Jason said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thinking The Herdson's suggestion of putting Jezza in to "govern" with 260 seats might not be a bad option...

    The arithmetic doesn't even begin to support that idea. How on earth would you justify to the public letting Corbyn in and only allowing him to put through the commons the policies you approve of ?
    What do you do when he makes the first vote a confidence issue ?

    And it you do allow him to pass legislation, you'd effectively be outsourcing the leadership of the Tories to Corbyn.

    Utterly absurd - even before you begin to consider the executive powers the PM possesses which don't require commons votes.

    And the message would also be "we don't have a leader any better than May".
    Pitiful.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1923

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1924
    I think we went thru the 1923/4 scenario the other day. Very risky.
    Everything is risky for Con at the moment.

    Keep May for two years for Brexit - There might not be a Conservative Party left when she's finished.

    Change May for Hammond - He might be able to pull off Brexit but the public will find him dull, boring and uninspiring. Next to Corbyn he'll fade into the background. And what if he turns out to be as useless as May?

    Change May for Boris - ANYTHING could happen. He might be a great success. He might be a terrible disaster.

    Put Corbyn in to govern as a minority - He might turn out to be even more popular and successful in office than he is in Opposition.

    These are dark times for #TeamBlue
    snip

    Of course a Corbyn McDonnell government would be a disaster for the country but ironically the quickest way to revive the Tories, we would be asking the IMF for a bailout in a year or two, the EU would make mincemeat of Corbyn and Starmer and the unions would be running the country
    We cannot hand over the reigns of power to Corbyn, no matter how tough it gets for the Tories. Corbyn has been emboldened, and has already starting talking about property theft from a demographic he despises.

    That's the tip of the iceberg. Imagine him as PM and McDonnell as chancellor. The damage they would do would sink this country.
    There is a great deal of ruin in a country.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055
    Jonathan said:

    May was a pastiche of Thatcher.

    Naturally they're now looking for a pastiche of Major to follow her.

    "Peas in our time."
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055
    rcs1000 said:


    It's also worth noting that Switzerland (not in the EEA, but in the single market for goods) has an agreement that is - to all practical purposes - is identical to being in a customs union with the EU. (All that is required is that Swiss exporters declare on their annual corporate tax return that any goods they exported to the EU met origin rules. Because the Swiss are exceptionally law abiding, and because Switzerland is landlocked and the opportunity for cheating is limited, this is considered by all sides to be sufficient.)

    Would the same level of trust apply to a country that puts banned cladding on high-rise buildings?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    This feels like a watershed moment.

    Nobody wants neo-liberalism anymore.

    We are definitely at the start of a realignment of politics, I fully agree with that.

    But far from this being the end of Neo-Liberalism, I think it is its down, or at least rebirth.

    The expression 'Neo-Liberalism' has been used as an insult by populists, in an attempt to keep us down, classical Liberals, or Libertarians, as those of us who understand the philosophy prefer to be called, is growing, and growing on a wide front, Macron's expected victory in France today is its best example yet.

    I would highly recommend this video from the IEA about the their perception of the realignment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OlkZ968xM
    Ironic, isn't it?

    The French have elected probably the free market government in the world. While we can't decide between the illiberal Mrs May or the Marxist Mr Corbyn.

    Macron not a free market supporter.

    Macron seeking increased protectionist laws for French businesses to stop then being taken over by foreign companies.

    Sopurce: Recent Financial Times article.
    Macron is planning to roll back decades of French labour market protectionism. That's reasonably free market in my book.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,804
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can anybody make sense of Labours Brexit position of staying in the customs union but leaving the single market?

    There is a good case to be made for staying in the customs union during a transitional period. It is also perfectly possible, as is the case with Turkey, to be in "a" customs union with the EU but not "the" customs union.

    The big advantage of the customs union is that there is no faffing around with origin rules, and goods can flow freely and largely absent of paperwork.

    It's also worth noting that Switzerland (not in the EEA, but in the single market for goods) has an agreement that is - to all practical purposes - is identical to being in a customs union with the EU. (All that is required is that Swiss exporters declare on their annual corporate tax return that any goods they exported to the EU met origin rules. Because the Swiss are exceptionally law abiding, and because Switzerland is landlocked and the opportunity for cheating is limited, this is considered by all sides to be sufficient.)
    I see thanks for that.

    Could we still do trade deals with other countries if we was in "a" customs union rather than "the" customs union?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Jason, nice idea, but it has to come from the left. The Conservatives, even those relatively left wing, can't risk splitting and allowing a Marxist and a friend of Hamas into power.

    The PLP has decided to respond to a third consecutive election defeat by concluding they were wrong about what a dangerous, incompetent **** their leader is and that actually he's really super and it's great the far left has its claws around the Labour Party's throat.

    Until and unless Labour MPs are willing to stand for a party that isn't led by a terrorist sympathising, far left lunatic, a British En Marche is impossible.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Is this England or India in the final?
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thinking The Herdson's suggestion of putting Jezza in to "govern" with 260 seats might not be a bad option...

    The arithmetic doesn't even begin to support that idea. How on earth would you justify to the public letting Corbyn in and only allowing him to put through the commons the policies you approve of ?
    What do you do when he makes the first vote a confidence issue ?

    And it you do allow him to pass legislation, you'd effectively be outsourcing the leadership of the Tories to Corbyn.

    Utterly absurd - even before you begin to consider the executive powers the PM possesses which don't require commons votes.

    And the message would also be "we don't have a leader any better than May".
    Pitiful.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1924
    I think we went thru the 1923/4 scenario the other day. Very risky.
    Everything is risky for Con at the moment.

    Keep May for two years for Brexit - There might not be a Conservative Party left when she's finished.

    Change May for Hammond - He might be able to pull off Brexit but the public will find #TeamBlue
    According to Survation 13% of Labour voters are more likely to vote Tory under Hammond, 17% under Boris, 7% under Davis, 8% under Gove and 11% under Rudd. However 39% would be less likely to vote for the Tories under Boris, 26% less likely under Hammond, 29% under Davis, 32% under Rudd and 36% under Gove.
    http://survation.com/labour-party-now-polling-5-ahead-conservatives-public-say-theresa-may-resign-49-38/

    Of course a Corbyn McDonnell government would be a disaster for the country but ironically the quickest way to revive the Tories, we would be asking the IMF for a bailout in a year or two, the EU would make mincemeat of Corbyn and Starmer and the unions would be running the country
    We cannot hand over the reigns of power to Corbyn, no matter how tough it gets for the Tories. Corbyn has been emboldened, and has already starting talking about property theft from a demographic he despises.

    That's the tip of the iceberg. Imagine him as PM and McDonnell as chancellor. The damage they would do would sink this country.
    I agree but from a purely partisan perspective the fact that a Corbyn McDonnell government would probably be the worst government we have ever had does cause a few Tories to pause and consider letting them take charge for a few years, it would likely be a guaranteed Tory landslide at the subsequent general election
    It's not worth it for the damage they would cause.
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    How many here would actually get a vote in a Tory leadership contest?

    If you do, do you agree the priority is to keep the hard left Corbyn out of power and that cannot be done by a dull technocrat type like Hammond but instead to have any chance of winning the next election you need an exciting charismatic populist of our own?

    It is either this or PM Corbyn.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    This feels like a watershed moment.

    Nobody wants neo-liberalism anymore.

    We are definitely at the start of a realignment of politics, I fully agree with that.

    But far from this being the end of Neo-Liberalism, I think it is its down, or at least rebirth.

    The expression 'Neo-Liberalism' has been used as an insult by populists, in an attempt to keep us down, classical Liberals, or Libertarians, as those of us who understand the philosophy prefer to be called, is growing, and growing on a wide front, Macron's expected victory in France today is its best example yet.

    I would highly recommend this video from the IEA about the their perception of the realignment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OlkZ968xM
    Ironic, isn't it?

    The French have elected probably the free market government in the world. While we can't decide between the illiberal Mrs May or the Marxist Mr Corbyn.

    Macron not a free market supporter.

    Macron seeking increased protectionist laws for French businesses to stop then being taken over by foreign companies.

    Sopurce: Recent Financial Times article.
    Macron is planning to roll back decades of French labour market protectionism. That's reasonably free market in my book.
    Yes, to judge Macron on the basis on his current positions would be like judging Thatcher on her 1979 manifesto. If he succeeds he will go further.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    A site which was convinced May was heading for a comfortable/landslide victory not so long ago, is now convinced a Corbyn government is going to happen.

    Reality: nothing is guaranteed. We are in such an unpredictable situation that literally anything could happen.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. One, disagree. May would've been if she'd been other than very incompetent at campaigning. If she'd been bland and average she'd have a majority of at least 50-60.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,199
    Jason said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thinking The Herdson's suggestion of putting Jezza in to "govern" with 260 seats might not be a bad option...

    The arithmetic doesn't even begin to support that idea. How on earth would you justify to the public letting Corbyn in and only allowing him to put through the commons the policies you approve of ?
    What do you do when he makes the first vote a confidence issue ?

    And it you do allow him to pass legislation, you'd effectively be outsourcing the leadership of the Tories to Corbyn.

    Utterly absurd - even before you begin to consider the executive powers the PM possesses which don't require commons votes.

    And the message would also be "we don't have a leader any better than May".
    Pitiful.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1924
    I think we went thru the 1923/4 scenario the other day. Very risky.
    Everything is risky for Con at the moment.

    Keep May for two years for Brexit - There might not be a Conservative Party left when she's finished.

    Change May for Hammond - He might be able to pull off Brexit but the public will find #TeamBlue
    snip

    Of course a Corbyn McDonnell government would be a disaster for the country but ironically the quickest way to revive the Tories, we would be asking the IMF for a bailout in a year or two, the EU would make mincemeat of Corbyn and Starmer and the unions would be running the country
    We cannot hand over the reigns of power to Corbyn, no matter how tough it gets for the Tories. Corbyn has been emboldened, and has already starting talking about property theft from a demographic he despises.

    That's the tip of the iceberg. Imagine him as PM and McDonnell as chancellor. The damage they would do would sink this country.
    I agree but from a purely partisan perspective the fact that a Corbyn McDonnell government would probably be the worst government we have ever had does cause a few Tories to pause and consider letting them take charge for a few years, it would likely be a guaranteed Tory landslide at the subsequent general election
    It's not worth it for the damage they would cause.
    What if McDonnell was clever enough to play it nice and safe until the second term?
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Mr. Jason, nice idea, but it has to come from the left. The Conservatives, even those relatively left wing, can't risk splitting and allowing a Marxist and a friend of Hamas into power.

    The PLP has decided to respond to a third consecutive election defeat by concluding they were wrong about what a dangerous, incompetent **** their leader is and that actually he's really super and it's great the far left has its claws around the Labour Party's throat.

    Until and unless Labour MPs are willing to stand for a party that isn't led by a terrorist sympathising, far left lunatic, a British En Marche is impossible.

    Yup. The standing ovation the PLP gave Corbyn was disgusting, and it is a decision they will live to regret.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can anybody make sense of Labours Brexit position of staying in the customs union but leaving the single market?

    There is a good case to be made for staying in the customs union during a transitional period. It is also perfectly possible, as is the case with Turkey, to be in "a" customs union with the EU but not "the" customs union.

    The big advantage of the customs union is that there is no faffing around with origin rules, and goods can flow freely and largely absent of paperwork.

    It's also worth noting that Switzerland (not in the EEA, but in the single market for goods) has an agreement that is - to all practical purposes - is identical to being in a customs union with the EU. (All that is required is that Swiss exporters declare on their annual corporate tax return that any goods they exported to the EU met origin rules. Because the Swiss are exceptionally law abiding, and because Switzerland is landlocked and the opportunity for cheating is limited, this is considered by all sides to be sufficient.)
    I see thanks for that.

    Could we still do trade deals with other countries if we was in "a" customs union rather than "the" customs union?
    Yes, but with caveats.

    I think you would need to pass a law saying that you need to declare all goods you plan to immediately re-export. (Turkey has such a law.)

    I think it would also only work during the period while our MFN tariff rates were the same as the EU. (In other words, it's a sensible transitional move.)
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Floater said:

    Jason said:

    Floater said:
    A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.

    Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.

    We are living in dangerous times.
    Drama Queen
    On the other hand you will excuse the red team nearly anything
    Remember the names BJO called Corbyn over the Trident QT questioning .... happy times.
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    calum said:
    She has nothing left but to act as Troll in Chief. Sad.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850
    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thinking The Herdson's suggestion of putting Jezza in to "govern" with 260 seats might not be a bad option...

    The arithmetic doesn't even begin to support that idea. How on earth would you justify to the public letting Corbyn in and only allowing him to put through the commons the policies you approve of ?



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1923

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1924
    I think we went thru the 1923/4 scenario the other day. Very risky.
    Everything is risky for Con at the moment.

    Keep May for two years for Brexit - There might not be a Conservative Party left when she's finished.

    Change May for Hammond - He might be able to pull off Brexit but the public will find #TeamBlue
    According to Survation 13% of Labour voters are more likely to vote Tory under Hammond, 17% under Boris, 7% under Davis, 8% under Gove and 11% under Rudd. However 39% would be less likely to vote for the Tories under Boris, 26% less likely under Hammond, 29% under Davis, 32% under Rudd and 36% under Gove.
    http://survation.com/labour-party-now-polling-5-ahead-conservatives-public-say-theresa-may-resign-49-38/

    Of course a Corbyn McDonnell government would be a disaster for the country but ironically the quickest way to revive the Tories, we would be asking the IMF for a bailout in a year or two, the EU would make mincemeat of Corbyn and Starmer and the unions would be running the country
    We cannot hand over the reigns of power to Corbyn, no matter how tough it gets for the Tories. Corbyn has been emboldened, and has already starting talking about property theft from a demographic he despises.

    That's the tip of the iceberg. Imagine him as PM and McDonnell as chancellor. The damage they would do would sink this country.
    I agree but from a purely partisan perspective the fact that a Corbyn McDonnell government would probably be the worst government we have ever had does cause a few Tories to pause and consider letting them take charge for a few years, it would likely be a guaranteed Tory landslide at the subsequent general election
    JICIPM definite disaster say PB Tories.

    They have been spot on about Corbyns abilities so far.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    How many other Tower Blocks in London are clad in this flammable material?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,804
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can anybody make sense of Labours Brexit position of staying in the customs union but leaving the single market?

    There is a good case to be made for staying in the customs union during a transitional period. It is also perfectly possible, as is the case with Turkey, to be in "a" customs union with the EU but not "the" customs union.

    The big advantage of the customs union is that there is no faffing around with origin rules, and goods can flow freely and largely absent of paperwork.

    It's also worth noting that Switzerland (not in the EEA, but in the single market for goods) has an agreement that is - to all practical purposes - is identical to being in a customs union with the EU. (All that is required is that Swiss exporters declare on their annual corporate tax return that any goods they exported to the EU met origin rules. Because the Swiss are exceptionally law abiding, and because Switzerland is landlocked and the opportunity for cheating is limited, this is considered by all sides to be sufficient.)
    I see thanks for that.

    Could we still do trade deals with other countries if we was in "a" customs union rather than "the" customs union?
    Yes, but with caveats.

    I think you would need to pass a law saying that you need to declare all goods you plan to immediately re-export. (Turkey has such a law.)

    I think it would also only work during the period while our MFN tariff rates were the same as the EU. (In other words, it's a sensible transitional move.)
    Interesting. Thanks Robert. :)
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    Floater said:

    Jason said:

    Floater said:
    A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.

    Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.

    We are living in dangerous times.
    Drama Queen
    On the other hand you will excuse the red team nearly anything
    Remember the names BJO called Corbyn over the Trident QT questioning .... happy times.
    That was not BJO that was a litre of Bacardi wot dun it
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,830
    welshowl said:

    Barnesian said:

    Jason said:

    Floater said:
    A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.

    Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.

    We are living in dangerous times.
    From YouGov today:

    Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?

    % ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP
    Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23
    Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24

    So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
    Hmm......

    Some questions:-

    -What's "luxury"? Who defines it? What's any appeal process?
    -What's "empty"?
    -What if it were left unused for a month because the owner was thinking of redecorating or refurbishing?
    -Or three or six months?
    -What if the owner works abroad on a monthly contract and genuinely doesn't know when they will be back and wants a secure base for when that happens?
    - Is compensation to be paid and if so how much and for how long?
    - If not what else can the Govt seize and under what circumstances?
    - How does the owner get their property back and when?
    -What if it's mortgaged and the lender decides to call the loan in because their security is now in doubt?
    - What if the owner is foreign and you start an international tit for tat? Lots of Chinese owned flats in London for example so that's going to end well isn't it? Why should I suffer a trade embargo to goods I export to China from far off Wales forcing me to lay people off in the Valleys because people are grandstanding in London?

    This was a dreadful tragedy. Huge efforts must be made to allieviate the suffering of those involved in a humane and practical fashion asap, no question. All aspects of this need to see full daylight in full public scrutiny for sure. However, we should also not all be leaping to conclusions before the technical enquiry as to the cause(s) has even really started. A bit less emoting wildly and a bit more thinking through the huge consequences of shoot from the hip responses might help.
    The only reason for requisitioning (outside of a national emergency) is punishment of property owners.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    A site which was convinced May was heading for a comfortable/landslide victory not so long ago, is now convinced a Corbyn government is going to happen.

    Reality: nothing is guaranteed. We are in such an unpredictable situation that literally anything could happen.

    What is great is how the commentariart of all sides just shrug their shoulders about getting it all wrong and then again start spouting with total confidence what the right actions and people are to do now in their opinion. It's a dismal science far beyond economics.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Owls, nobody predicted May would be that rubbish in the campaign.

    Your man's a far left lunatic. It was right a month ago, a year ago, and is right today. It'll still be right in a week or a month.

    Mr. Jason, indeed, although Flint and Leslie have risen in my estimation (and Cooper declined).
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,804
    isam said:

    How many other Tower Blocks in London are clad in this flammable material?

    And not just London but across the country.

    I imagine there are a lot of panic-stricken officials running around tower blocks across the UK right now trying to find out...
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    The only reason for requisitioning (outside of a national emergency) is punishment of LANDBAMKERS.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can anybody make sense of Labours Brexit position of staying in the customs union but leaving the single market?

    There is a good case to be made for staying in the customs union during a transitional period. It is also perfectly possible, as is the case with Turkey, to be in "a" customs union with the EU but not "the" customs union.

    The big advantage of the customs union is that there is no faffing around with origin rules, and goods can flow freely and largely absent of paperwork.

    It's also worth noting that Switzerland (not in the EEA, but in the single market for goods) has an agreement that is - to all practical purposes - is identical to being in a customs union with the EU. (All that is required is that Swiss exporters declare on their annual corporate tax return that any goods they exported to the EU met origin rules. Because the Swiss are exceptionally law abiding, and because Switzerland is landlocked and the opportunity for cheating is limited, this is considered by all sides to be sufficient.)
    I see thanks for that.

    Could we still do trade deals with other countries if we was in "a" customs union rather than "the" customs union?
    Yes, but with caveats.

    I think you would need to pass a law saying that you need to declare all goods you plan to immediately re-export. (Turkey has such a law.)

    I think it would also only work during the period while our MFN tariff rates were the same as the EU. (In other words, it's a sensible transitional move.)
    Transitioning to what? So far nothing of the vision of the 'global' Brexiteers has come close to being vindicated. Brexit is a blind alley that wastes our energies. Britiain is a European country and is every bit as suited to full EU membership as Germany, France or Spain.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059


    The only reason for requisitioning (outside of a national emergency) is punishment of LANDBAMKERS.



    Is that a german merchant bank?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850


    The only reason for requisitioning (outside of a national emergency) is punishment of LANDBAMKERS.

    Is that a german merchant bank?

    Could be!!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    nunuone said:

    How many here would actually get a vote in a Tory leadership contest?

    If you do, do you agree the priority is to keep the hard left Corbyn out of power and that cannot be done by a dull technocrat type like Hammond but instead to have any chance of winning the next election you need an exciting charismatic populist of our own?

    It is either this or PM Corbyn.

    No I disagree, as a Tory member I think Hammond is both best for the Brexit talks and best to keep out Corbyn however we need to see some head to head Labour v Tories voting intention figures under Hammond, Boris and Davis to confirm. If Boris and Davis do better I may change my mind but at the moment Hammond actually has the best net figures of the 3 with Labour voters while being about average with Tory voters
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    On more important matters, but just maybe relevant. Who had money on Pakistan in the ICC?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Ok Alistair, given that the Conservatives can never do anything to please you, moving over with a near nigh 60 seat majority and 800,000 additional votes compared to the LOSERS of the GE, would give us the massively experienced Labour front bench aided by Rag, Tag and Bobtail coalition partners. What kind of bloody idiots do you think we are?

    A "bloody idiot" who thinks the Conservative have a "60 seat majority" ??? .... where did that come from? ... Extra seats for the DUP by wishful thinking transference?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited June 2017

    HYUFD said:

    Jason said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Thinking The Herdson's suggestion of putting Jezza in to "govern" with 260 seats might not be a bad option...

    The arithmetic doesn't even begin to support that idea. How on earth would you justify to the public letting Corbyn in and only allowing him to put through the commons the policies you approve of ?



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1923

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1924
    I think we went thru the 1923/4 scenario the other day. Very risky.
    Everything is risky for Con at the moment.

    Keep May for two years for Brexit - There might not be a Conservative Party left when she's finished.

    Change May for Hammond - He might be able to pull off Brexit but the public will find #TeamBlue
    According to Survation 13% of Labour voters are more likely to vote Tory under Hammond, 17% under Boris, 7% under Davis, 8% under Gove and 11% under Rudd. However 39% would be less likely to vote for the Tories under Boris, 26% less likely under Hammond, 29% under Davis, 32% under Rudd and 36% under Gove.
    http://survation.com/labour-party-now-polling-5-ahead-conservatives-public-say-theresa-may-resign-49-38/

    Of course a Corbyn McDonnell government would be a disaster for the country but ironically the quickest way to revive the Tories, we would be asking the IMF for a bailout in a year or two, the EU would make mincemeat of Corbyn and Starmer and the unions would be running the country
    We cannot hand over the reigns of power to Corbyn, no matter how tough it gets for the Tories. Corbyn has been emboldened, and has already starting talking about property theft from a demographic he despises.

    That's the tip of the iceberg. Imagine him as PM and McDonnell as chancellor. The damage they would do would sink this country.
    I agree but from a purely partisan perspective the fact lection
    JICIPM definite disaster say PB Tories.

    They have been spot on about Corbyns abilities so far.
    The fact Corbyn can twice win a Labour leadership contest and get within 60 seats of the Tories im a general election does not mean he will be anything other than a disaster in power. Even in Greece 2 years after Tsipras was elected Syriza now trail the conservative New Democracy party by almost 20% in the latest polls
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Greek_legislative_election
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited June 2017


    The only reason for requisitioning (outside of a national emergency) is punishment of LANDBAMKERS.



    Yes but what about the questions I posed up thread? Care to define a tad rather than just shouting from the barricades?

    I've got a spare bedroom and a bit a front garden I don't use that much? Landbanker?
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,192
    For all of the bluster about votes and seats it's very simple.

    Theresa May will go.

    If she goes soon there is a chance the Conservative Party can keep a level of perceived competence and at least lead us into the "ere is your bus fare 'ome" Brexit negotiations. Scared by the grotesque chaos of May it'll have to be Hammond despite (and because of) BoJo whining. And that means fun and games as the "majority" with or without the DUP is nothing of the sort due to Europe once again splitting the party in twain

    If she stays it tells the nation a few things:
    You don't matter. Keeping Jezbollah out and Cameroons out is more important than your concerns. In the national interest of course.
    There is no one better. No one else can lead the Tory party as an alternative to this zombie who can't lead the Tory party. And forget about national leadership as she can't do that either. Brexit? Que?

    Fun times for popcorn manufacturers
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    This feels like a watershed moment.

    Nobody wants neo-liberalism anymore.

    We are definitely at the start of a realignment of politics, I fully agree with that.

    But far from this being the end of Neo-Liberalism, I think it is its down, or at least rebirth.

    The expression 'Neo-Liberalism' has been used as an insult by populists, in an attempt to keep us down, classical Liberals, or Libertarians, as those of us who understand the philosophy prefer to be called, is growing, and growing on a wide front, Macron's expected victory in France today is its best example yet.

    I would highly recommend this video from the IEA about the their perception of the realignment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OlkZ968xM
    Ironic, isn't it?

    The French have elected probably the free market government in the world. While we can't decide between the illiberal Mrs May or the Marxist Mr Corbyn.

    Macron not a free market supporter.

    Macron seeking increased protectionist laws for French businesses to stop then being taken over by foreign companies.

    Sopurce: Recent Financial Times article.
    Macron is planning to roll back decades of French labour market protectionism. That's reasonably free market in my book.
    He won't be the first in recent times to attempt this. not sure that means it will happen.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,830


    The only reason for requisitioning (outside of a national emergency) is punishment of LANDBAMKERS.



    It's understandable that people should wish to lash out at someone in the wake of this tragedy, and rich people in Kensington are a natural target. It's why I said that rich people in Inner London should keep a low profile.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    isam said:

    How many other Tower Blocks in London are clad in this flammable material?

    Diane Abbott has been sent to count them ....
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    DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    Theresa May should get the Queen's speech through and then resign as party leader straight after the Parliamentary recess starts on July 15th, that gives the Tories around seven weeks to get a new leader before Parliament returns on 5th of September.

    There must be a contest. they can't afford another coronation, if a Brexit deal can be done quickly, the new PM can call an election for October 2018 to get his own mandate and no doubt the deal will be a big issue in the election campaign.

    If there's no deal by the end of March 2019 we leave the EU anyway and an election could be called for the first Thursday in May.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,055
    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    This feels like a watershed moment.

    Nobody wants neo-liberalism anymore.

    We are definitely at the start of a realignment of politics, I fully agree with that.

    But far from this being the end of Neo-Liberalism, I think it is its down, or at least rebirth.

    The expression 'Neo-Liberalism' has been used as an insult by populists, in an attempt to keep us down, classical Liberals, or Libertarians, as those of us who understand the philosophy prefer to be called, is growing, and growing on a wide front, Macron's expected victory in France today is its best example yet.

    I would highly recommend this video from the IEA about the their perception of the realignment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OlkZ968xM
    Ironic, isn't it?

    The French have elected probably the free market government in the world. While we can't decide between the illiberal Mrs May or the Marxist Mr Corbyn.

    Macron not a free market supporter.

    Macron seeking increased protectionist laws for French businesses to stop then being taken over by foreign companies.

    Sopurce: Recent Financial Times article.
    Macron is planning to roll back decades of French labour market protectionism. That's reasonably free market in my book.
    He won't be the first in recent times to attempt this. not sure that means it will happen.
    Again, the best comparison is with Thatcher. PMs had failed several times where she succeeded. So far Macron shows every sign of being the stand-out leader of his generation.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,970

    On more important matters, but just maybe relevant. Who had money on Pakistan in the ICC?

    Pakistan?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,199
    DeClare said:

    Theresa May should get the Queen's speech through and then resign as party leader straight after the Parliamentary recess starts on July 15th, that gives the Tories around seven weeks to get a new leader before Parliament returns on 5th of September.

    There must be a contest. they can't afford another coronation, if a Brexit deal can be done quickly, the new PM can call an election for October 2018 to get his own mandate and no doubt the deal will be a big issue in the election campaign.

    If there's no deal by the end of March 2019 we leave the EU anyway and an election could be called for the first Thursday in May.

    Does seem the most likely scenario.

    Although would be better for my wallet if Hammond took over by Cabinet consent tomorrow afternoon and did the QS stuff.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Borough, I agree. Hammond should support us economically by becoming PM at once.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Afternoon all :)

    I note Boris's majority in West London collapsed to just 5,000 a couple of weeks ago (NIck Hurd also suffered a big swing and it's not inconcivable Labour will sweep Hillingdon next spring.)

    I don't have a strong view on the Conservative leadership - are you looking for an effective Brexit negotiator or someone to give you a poll lift and make you feel better after the events of the past fortnight ?
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,970
    Replacing May with Hammond is a no-brainer as far as I'm concerned. As was noted downthread he's the only one of the potential leaders of the Brexit negotiations who would have a modicum of credibility with the Europeans. So, if we could just think in terms of what the country needs, rather than some putative electoral advantage, spreadsheet Phil it is.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Having just caught up with Marr I have to say I was surprised to see, contrary to press and social media reports, how far Hammond is in fact wedded to the Leave camp. Leavers can seemingly rest assured the potential coup against May isn't motivated by an underlying desire to sink Brexit. The interesting thing is if there is a leadership election will Tory MP's now ensure Boris doesn't make the final two in the reasonably certain knowledge Brexit is safe.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,044
    calum said:
    I'm sure the 'we're all one country' brigade will be applauding this move.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,830
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I note Boris's majority in West London collapsed to just 5,000 a couple of weeks ago (NIck Hurd also suffered a big swing and it's not inconcivable Labour will sweep Hillingdon next spring.)

    I don't have a strong view on the Conservative leadership - are you looking for an effective Brexit negotiator or someone to give you a poll lift and make you feel better after the events of the past fortnight ?

    I think that Labour will find it hard to advance beyond the 55% they got in London, next time.

    It's striking though, that the Tories have been stuck on about a third of the vote in every London election since 1997.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited June 2017

    Jason said:

    Floater said:
    A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.

    Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.

    We are living in dangerous times.
    Drama Queen
    The Conservatives were very happy to requisition people's property in WW2 . They were also happy in the 1950s and 1960s to compulsory purchase it at below market value for major building projects . If you had a nice property but were unlucky to live in the middle of a large slum clearance area again your home was requisitioned with below market value compensation .
    Have you got sources for that please?
    Google is your friend
    I'm sorry but that isn't how this works. You can't just make a claim and then tell ME to Google it.
    He's right though. It's very well known. So much so that you shouldn't need to google it. It actually stretched into the early 70's and houses could be compulsorily purchased because there weren't enough windows or any building infringement real or invented and bought for a song. I used to work as a vounteer for Shelter and it was disgraceful.
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    DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I note Boris's majority in West London collapsed to just 5,000 a couple of weeks ago (NIck Hurd also suffered a big swing and it's not inconcivable Labour will sweep Hillingdon next spring.)

    I don't have a strong view on the Conservative leadership - are you looking for an effective Brexit negotiator or someone to give you a poll lift and make you feel better after the events of the past fortnight ?

    Boris's vote went up by 0.6% it's true that the Labour vote went up by a lot more, there was higher turnout and they squeezed the UKIP, Lib/Dem and Green votes.
    But there can't be much left to squeeze and you won't get many more Con-Lab switchers if they run a better campaign next time.
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    I have been of the opinion for a long time now, that everyone messed up everything. When the British people voted LEAVE on June 23rd 2016, David Cameron should have come out of Downing Street and announced that he was resigning as Prime Minister but not as Conservative Party leader and contesting a general election to be held on August 18th 2016 which would then be used as the base for a government of national unity with Cabinet posts awarded using d'Hondt PR to create a Cabinet of equals which would then draw up the UK's discussion plan for Brexit, at which point Article 50 would be triggered and at the same time a general election to be held eight weeks after those two year discussions ended. That way we wouldn't be in this whole mess.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2017

    Replacing May with Hammond is a no-brainer as far as I'm concerned. As was noted downthread he's the only one of the potential leaders of the Brexit negotiations who would have a modicum of credibility with the Europeans. So, if we could just think in terms of what the country needs, rather than some putative electoral advantage, spreadsheet Phil it is.

    Conservatives would have to be no-brainers to (s)elect Hammond. He's Theresa May without the charisma or John Major without the interesting external Y fronts.

    Not that some of the other front line candidates inspire too much confidence. Voters will laugh with but also laugh at Boris, a clever but amiable buffoon who certainly adds to the gaiety of the nation but not much else. David Davis is the arch BREXITEER with a penchant for resigning his seat in a fit of righteous self importance and has an air of contented smugness.

    Conservatives need to think outside of the box - not Pandora's box .... but a candidate with proven leadership skills, a sense of direction, vision and hope. Added to which an ability to engage the voters without an air of entitlement or fake empathy.

    And no I haven't the faintest idea presently but then again neither do the Tories. Cometh the hour cometh the man or woman. We shall see.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    Norm said:

    Having just caught up with Marr I have to say I was surprised to see, contrary to press and social media reports, how far Hammond is in fact wedded to the Leave camp. Leavers can seemingly rest assured the potential coup against May isn't motivated by an underlying desire to sink Brexit. The interesting thing is if there is a leadership election will Tory MP's now ensure Boris doesn't make the final two in the reasonably certain knowledge Brexit is safe.

    That's because most Conservatives are still in denial about Brexit. Philip Hammond appears to be one of the more realistic ones. If he's going long on the Leave rhetoric, it just indicates he is hungry for the job of PM and is happy to tell his party what he thinks they want to hear.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,850
    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I note Boris's majority in West London collapsed to just 5,000 a couple of weeks ago (NIck Hurd also suffered a big swing and it's not inconcivable Labour will sweep Hillingdon next spring.)

    I don't have a strong view on the Conservative leadership - are you looking for an effective Brexit negotiator or someone to give you a poll lift and make you feel better after the events of the past fortnight ?

    I think that Labour will find it hard to advance beyond the 55% they got in London, next time.

    It's striking though, that the Tories have been stuck on about a third of the vote in every London election since 1997.
    If memory serves, London had 48 Conservative MPs in 1992.

    The expansion of Labour from Inner London to the suburbs (and the emergence of the LD power base in SW London around Sutton, Kingston and Richmond) has reduced the Conservatives to the fringes and while they retain strength to the SE of the capital, the 2017 results suggested Labour was gaining ground in the North and North West.

    The likes of Chipping Barnet, Hendon, Cities of London & Westminster and Putney along with Boris's seat are all now marginals (as indeed is IDS' seat).
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,970
    JackW said:

    Replacing May with Hammond is a no-brainer as far as I'm concerned. As was noted downthread he's the only one of the potential leaders of the Brexit negotiations who would have a modicum of credibility with the Europeans. So, if we could just think in terms of what the country needs, rather than some putative electoral advantage, spreadsheet Phil it is.

    Conservatives would have to be no-brainers to (s)elect Hammond. He's Theresa May without the charisma or John Major without the interesting external Y fronts.

    Not that some of the other front line candidates inspire too much confidence. Voters will laugh with but also laugh at Boris, a clever but amiable buffoon who certainly adds to the gaiety of the nation but not much else. David Davis is the arch BREXITEER with a penchant for resigning his seat in a fit of righteous self importance and has an air of contented smugness.

    Conservatives need to think outside of the box - not Pandora's box .... but a candidate with proven leadership skills, a sense of direction, vision and hope. Added to which an ability to engage the voters without an air of entitlement or fake empathy.

    And no I haven't the faintest idea presently but then again neither do the Tories. Cometh the hour cometh the man or woman. We shall see.
    Yes, it is not a positive endorsement of Hammond, but recognition that all the other contenders (including the present incumbent) represent varying degrees of disaster in terms of the Brexit negotiations - which is, of course, the only thing that matters now.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    DeClare said:

    Theresa May should get the Queen's speech through and then resign as party leader straight after the Parliamentary recess starts on July 15th, that gives the Tories around seven weeks to get a new leader before Parliament returns on 5th of September.

    There must be a contest. they can't afford another coronation, if a Brexit deal can be done quickly, the new PM can call an election for October 2018 to get his own mandate and no doubt the deal will be a big issue in the election campaign.

    If there's no deal by the end of March 2019 we leave the EU anyway and an election could be called for the first Thursday in May.

    So seven months wasted on internal Conservative Party wrangling, out of an extremely tight 18 months to negotiate Britain's future? Massively irresponsible.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    FF43 said:

    Norm said:

    Having just caught up with Marr I have to say I was surprised to see, contrary to press and social media reports, how far Hammond is in fact wedded to the Leave camp. Leavers can seemingly rest assured the potential coup against May isn't motivated by an underlying desire to sink Brexit. The interesting thing is if there is a leadership election will Tory MP's now ensure Boris doesn't make the final two in the reasonably certain knowledge Brexit is safe.

    That's because most Conservatives are still in denial about Brexit. Philip Hammond appears to be one of the more realistic ones. If he's going long on the Leave rhetoric, it just indicates he is hungry for the job of PM and is happy to tell his party what he thinks they want to hear.
    Then he can come back and say its impossible and he did his best.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    nunuone said:

    How many here would actually get a vote in a Tory leadership contest?

    If you do, do you agree the priority is to keep the hard left Corbyn out of power and that cannot be done by a dull technocrat type like Hammond but instead to have any chance of winning the next election you need an exciting charismatic populist of our own?

    It is either this or PM Corbyn.

    I've got my three quid ready just in case Rees Mogg throws his breeches into the ring.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2017

    I have been of the opinion for a long time now, that everyone messed up everything. When the British people voted LEAVE on June 23rd 2016, David Cameron should have come out of Downing Street and announced that he was resigning as Prime Minister but not as Conservative Party leader and contesting a general election to be held on August 18th 2016 which would then be used as the base for a government of national unity with Cabinet posts awarded using d'Hondt PR to create a Cabinet of equals which would then draw up the UK's discussion plan for Brexit, at which point Article 50 would be triggered and at the same time a general election to be held eight weeks after those two year discussions ended. That way we wouldn't be in this whole mess.

    Who would have been Prime Minister between 23rd June and 18th August - Peter Bone ?
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    This feels like a watershed moment.

    Nobody wants neo-liberalism anymore.

    We are definitely at the start of a realignment of politics, I fully agree with that.

    But far from this being the end of Neo-Liberalism, I think it is its down, or at least rebirth.

    The expression 'Neo-Liberalism' has been used as an insult by populists, in an attempt to keep us down, classical Liberals, or Libertarians, as those of us who understand the philosophy prefer to be called, is growing, and growing on a wide front, Macron's expected victory in France today is its best example yet.

    I would highly recommend this video from the IEA about the their perception of the realignment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OlkZ968xM
    Ironic, isn't it?

    The French have elected probably the free market government in the world. While we can't decide between the illiberal Mrs May or the Marxist Mr Corbyn.

    Macron not a free market supporter.

    Macron seeking increased protectionist laws for French businesses to stop then being taken over by foreign companies.

    Sopurce: Recent Financial Times article.
    Macron is planning to roll back decades of French labour market protectionism. That's reasonably free market in my book.
    He won't be the first in recent times to attempt this. not sure that means it will happen.
    Again, the best comparison is with Thatcher. PMs had failed several times where she succeeded. So far Macron shows every sign of being the stand-out leader of his generation.
    He has to be willing to take on the French Unions and win.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can anybody make sense of Labours Brexit position of staying in the customs union but leaving the single market?

    There is a good case to be made for staying in the customs union during a transitional period. It is also perfectly possible, as is the case with Turkey, to be in "a" customs union with the EU but not "the" customs union.

    The big advantage of the customs union is that there is no faffing around with origin rules, and goods can flow freely and largely absent of paperwork.

    It's also worth noting that Switzerland (not in the EEA, but in the single market for goods) has an agreement that is - to all practical purposes - is identical to being in a customs union with the EU. (All that is required is that Swiss exporters declare on their annual corporate tax return that any goods they exported to the EU met origin rules. Because the Swiss are exceptionally law abiding, and because Switzerland is landlocked and the opportunity for cheating is limited, this is considered by all sides to be sufficient.)
    I see thanks for that.

    Could we still do trade deals with other countries if we was in "a" customs union rather than "the" customs union?
    Yes but we would have to apply the same tariffs.
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    MetatronMetatron Posts: 193
    If Hammond is such a great choice why did he not stand a year ago when he was foreign secretary? Like May i do not think he is very good on tv.If May stood down tomorrow Damian Green 25/1 would take over temporarily and that gives him an edge over rivals.
    Green is nothing special but 25/1 is massive given the context.
    The best Tory I know on tv is Esther Mcvie who was a junior minister in the Coalition then lost her seat in 2015 but has just got a seat in the new parliament.The experience of being out of parliament will have been good for her
    What the Tories should be looking for longterm is someone to take on the crypto -communists who now control the education system the way Thatcher took on the crypto-communists who controlled the trade unions in her day.
    Tories need to ask how did 12 million people including the majority of students end up voting for someone like Corbyn and if the reason is not the left wing education system then what is it?
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    DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    Roger said:


    nunuone said:

    How many here would actually get a vote in a Tory leadership contest?

    If you do, do you agree the priority is to keep the hard left Corbyn out of power and that cannot be done by a dull technocrat type like Hammond but instead to have any chance of winning the next election you need an exciting charismatic populist of our own?

    It is either this or PM Corbyn.

    I've got my three quid ready just in case Rees Mogg throws his breeches into the ring.
    I think that you have to been a paid up Conservative Party member for at least six months before you can vote.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,263
    Metatron said:

    If Hammond is such a great choice why did he not stand a year ago when he was foreign secretary? Like May i do not think he is very good on tv.If May stood down tomorrow Damian Green 25/1 would take over temporarily and that gives him an edge over rivals.
    Green is nothing special but 25/1 is massive given the context.
    The best Tory I know on tv is Esther Mcvie who was a junior minister in the Coalition then lost her seat in 2015 but has just got a seat in the new parliament.The experience of being out of parliament will have been good for her
    What the Tories should be looking for longterm is someone to take on the crypto -communists who now control the education system the way Thatcher took on the crypto-communists who controlled the trade unions in her day.
    Tories need to ask how did 12 million people including the majority of students end up voting for someone like Corbyn and if the reason is not the left wing education system then what is it?

    Idiot.

    Young people are on the rotten end of the current economic bargain and want change. That much is obvious. Have you actually spoken to any younger voters recently?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Metatron, why would Green take over?

    He's First Secretary of State (weirdly) but that's not a guarantee. He was appointed by May, he isn't deputy leader of the Conservative Party, is he?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,712
    felix said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    This feels like a watershed moment.

    Nobody wants neo-liberalism anymore.

    We are definitely at the start of a realignment of politics, I fully agree with that.

    But far from this being the end of Neo-Liberalism, I think it is its down, or at least rebirth.

    The expression 'Neo-Liberalism' has been used as an insult by populists, in an attempt to keep us down, classical Liberals, or Libertarians, as those of us who understand the philosophy prefer to be called, is growing, and growing on a wide front, Macron's expected victory in France today is its best example yet.

    I would highly recommend this video from the IEA about the their perception of the realignment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OlkZ968xM
    Ironic, isn't it?

    The French have elected probably the free market government in the world. While we can't decide between the illiberal Mrs May or the Marxist Mr Corbyn.

    Macron not a free market supporter.

    Macron seeking increased protectionist laws for French businesses to stop then being taken over by foreign companies.

    Sopurce: Recent Financial Times article.
    Macron is planning to roll back decades of French labour market protectionism. That's reasonably free market in my book.
    He won't be the first in recent times to attempt this. not sure that means it will happen.
    Again, the best comparison is with Thatcher. PMs had failed several times where she succeeded. So far Macron shows every sign of being the stand-out leader of his generation.
    He has to be willing to take on the French Unions and win.
    Best not to plan any ferry trips to France then.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Looks like cable then as apparently lamb isnt standing either.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    edited June 2017
    According to Mr. Smithson on Twitter, Swinson is not standing.

    Edited extra bit: you can get 5 or 6 on Davey, Cable and Lamb on Ladbrokes.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    felix said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    This feels like a watershed moment.

    Nobody wants neo-liberalism anymore.

    We are definitely at the start of a realignment of politics, I fully agree with that.

    But far from this being the end of Neo-Liberalism, I think it is its down, or at least rebirth.

    The expression 'Neo-Liberalism' has been used as an insult by populists, in an attempt to keep us down, classical Liberals, or Libertarians, as those of us who understand the philosophy prefer to be called, is growing, and growing on a wide front, Macron's expected victory in France today is its best example yet.

    I would highly recommend this video from the IEA about the their perception of the realignment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OlkZ968xM
    Ironic, isn't it?

    The French have elected probably the free market government in the world. While we can't decide between the illiberal Mrs May or the Marxist Mr Corbyn.

    Macron not a free market supporter.

    Macron seeking increased protectionist laws for French businesses to stop then being taken over by foreign companies.

    Sopurce: Recent Financial Times article.
    Macron is planning to roll back decades of French labour market protectionism. That's reasonably free market in my book.
    He won't be the first in recent times to attempt this. not sure that means it will happen.
    Again, the best comparison is with Thatcher. PMs had failed several times where she succeeded. So far Macron shows every sign of being the stand-out leader of his generation.
    He has to be willing to take on the French Unions and win.
    Best not to plan any ferry trips to France then.
    Living in Spain - france is very much not on my list of places to visit or pass through.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    Metatron said:

    If Hammond is such a great choice why did he not stand a year ago when he was foreign secretary? Like May i do not think he is very good on tv.If May stood down tomorrow Damian Green 25/1 would take over temporarily and that gives him an edge over rivals.
    Green is nothing special but 25/1 is massive given the context.
    The best Tory I know on tv is Esther Mcvie who was a junior minister in the Coalition then lost her seat in 2015 but has just got a seat in the new parliament.The experience of being out of parliament will have been good for her
    What the Tories should be looking for longterm is someone to take on the crypto -communists who now control the education system the way Thatcher took on the crypto-communists who controlled the trade unions in her day.
    Tories need to ask how did 12 million people including the majority of students end up voting for someone like Corbyn and if the reason is not the left wing education system then what is it?

    Why did 12 million vote for someone like Corbyn? Because the Conservatives are reckless, incompetent and destroy all hope. As all those things are nailed on for Labour as well, you might as well vote for people who at least give a semblance of caring about you.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    Metatron said:

    If Hammond is such a great choice why did he not stand a year ago when he was foreign secretary? Like May i do not think he is very good on tv.If May stood down tomorrow Damian Green 25/1 would take over temporarily and that gives him an edge over rivals.
    Green is nothing special but 25/1 is massive given the context.
    The best Tory I know on tv is Esther Mcvie who was a junior minister in the Coalition then lost her seat in 2015 but has just got a seat in the new parliament.The experience of being out of parliament will have been good for her
    What the Tories should be looking for longterm is someone to take on the crypto -communists who now control the education system the way Thatcher took on the crypto-communists who controlled the trade unions in her day.
    Tories need to ask how did 12 million people including the majority of students end up voting for someone like Corbyn and if the reason is not the left wing education system then what is it?

    The education system isn't in the hands of crypto-communists, but those of demented back-to-the-1870s campaigners.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,119
    nichomar said:

    Looks like cable then as apparently lamb isnt standing either.
    Whatever happened to the cult of youth?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Nichomar, where'd and what'd you hear that about Lamb?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541


    The only reason for requisitioning (outside of a national emergency) is punishment of LANDBAMKERS.



    I approve the idea of putting your typos in uppercase.
    THAMKYOU !

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,199
    nichomar said:

    Looks like cable then as apparently lamb isnt standing either.
    Source?
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    nichomar said:

    Looks like cable then as apparently lamb isnt standing either.
    Ed Davey at 51 must be a better bet than Cable at 74
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936

    rcs1000 said:

    BigRich said:

    This feels like a watershed moment.

    Nobody wants neo-liberalism anymore.

    We are definitely at the start of a realignment of politics, I fully agree with that.

    But far from this being the end of Neo-Liberalism, I think it is its down, or at least rebirth.

    The expression 'Neo-Liberalism' has been used as an insult by populists, in an attempt to keep us down, classical Liberals, or Libertarians, as those of us who understand the philosophy prefer to be called, is growing, and growing on a wide front, Macron's expected victory in France today is its best example yet.

    I would highly recommend this video from the IEA about the their perception of the realignment.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OlkZ968xM
    Ironic, isn't it?

    The French have elected probably the free market government in the world. While we can't decide between the illiberal Mrs May or the Marxist Mr Corbyn.
    It's difficult to resist the urge to make ad hominem arguments, but when sensible people make irrational choices because of how they feel (or how they think other people feel), and stick to them in the face of evidence of their mistake then we're in dire straights.
    Well to make just such an ad hominem argument, that description fits you to a T. Your blind unquestioning support for EU integration is irrational and all the evidence is that it will lead to yet more strife and discord

    oh and it is dire 'straits' (as in a narrow passage of water) not 'straights'
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,192
    Roger said:



    I've got my three quid ready just in case Rees Mogg throws his breeches into the ring.

    JRM. Now we're talking.

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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Chris said:

    nichomar said:

    Looks like cable then as apparently lamb isnt standing either.
    Whatever happened to the cult of youth?
    They are presently swimming and dining alfresco Chez JackW .... and some at the same time !!
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,712
    calum said:
    One kitten heel is still operative!
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Looks like cable then as apparently lamb isnt standing either.
    Source?
    Only because of the first response after the original treat, which was why i said apparently
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,199
    felix said:
    She'll be Deputy. Might even be leader in time for next GE, unless one happens next month of course.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr. Norm, for a moment, I thought those were odds, and was eminently jealous :D
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541

    On more important matters, but just maybe relevant. Who had money on Pakistan in the ICC?

    Pakistan?
    If that runout is anything to go by, Jadeja ?
    (I'm being a bit unfair - Pakistan have played brilliantly.)

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    Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    numbertwelve

    I understand your thinking but - and I have no idea how old you are - this has a 1992 feel to it. The very real fear among Tories is that if they cling on now they will be out of power for a generation.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    nichomar said:

    FF43 said:

    Norm said:

    Having just caught up with Marr I have to say I was surprised to see, contrary to press and social media reports, how far Hammond is in fact wedded to the Leave camp. Leavers can seemingly rest assured the potential coup against May isn't motivated by an underlying desire to sink Brexit. The interesting thing is if there is a leadership election will Tory MP's now ensure Boris doesn't make the final two in the reasonably certain knowledge Brexit is safe.

    That's because most Conservatives are still in denial about Brexit. Philip Hammond appears to be one of the more realistic ones. If he's going long on the Leave rhetoric, it just indicates he is hungry for the job of PM and is happy to tell his party what he thinks they want to hear.
    Then he can come back and say its impossible and he did his best.
    I think that's likely. If Hammond doesn't do a U turn other potential leaders won't do one either. We have to trust his sense of what is possible trumps being honest with his party.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612


    The only reason for requisitioning (outside of a national emergency) is punishment of LANDBAMKERS.



    The LSE:

    Significant proportions of new units are bought by overseas residents. The percentage is highest in central London but the total number there is small;

    A clear majority of units bought by overseas investors are let out to Londoners;

    Others are used by owners’ family members, children in education or returning expats, and are fully occupied;

    A small but highly visible subset is lived in only occasionally. However, there was almost no evidence of homes being left permanently empty;

    Pre-sales to overseas buyers enable developers to build faster and thus make more market and affordable housing available than would otherwise have been the case;

    International investment and finance have helped bring stalled sites into use and speed up development on larger sites. They have also been key to creating our Build to Rent sector.


    http://lselondonhousing.org/2017/06/overseas-investors-and-londons-housing-market/
This discussion has been closed.