After May steps down or is pushed out the Tory's need to skip a generation; they need someone who the next generation can relate to, and I think the obvious candidate is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Just look at how well he performs on Have I Got News for You, and even Mairh Black of the SNP has spoken and written warmly of him.
I like to put my money where my mouth is, so what odds can I get for a £20 wager?
evens for a laugh
Even for a laugh, no to Jacob Rees-Mogg, the latter day Mervyn Griffith-Jones.
The idea that JRM can connect with the millennial youth is the funniest thing I have read on PB for many a month. That said, the uber leftie Vicky Cohen does fancy him, and told him so on HIGNFY.
I can think of only three reasons why anyone should vote for Brexit.
1. It will make the country more prosperous
2. It will stop intrusive regulation. Lets call it the 'straight banana' factor
3. It will mean we can keep unwanted foreigners out.
The first one is plainly ridiculous. The world and his wife including almost every business leader and nearly every politician have said we'll be financially worse off.
The second is even more spurious. After a catastrophic fire and the worst financial crisis in our history no one but a complete idiot would be advocating loosening regulation and the EU's record on safety regulation is exemplary.
The third is puzzling. If we're worried about numbers why are we letting more people from outside the EU in than we're getting from inside?
My sense is that it's the last thrashing of Empire from a bunch of old union jack wavers and the young particularly find it sad and pathetic.
Sorry Roger but more rubbish from you. In fact it is exactly the opposite. It is the old patrician Tories who were and are most in favour of the EU. They see it as a replacement for the Empire and even now have the arrogance to think that if we were fully engaged we would naturally end up leading it and would bend it to our will.
Your arrogance is to think that the reasons you can come up with are the ones driving people to oppose the EU. I suppose from your little place in Southern France it might look that way but only if you are extremely blinkered. People want accountable, democratic Government that they can get rid of if they don't fulfil their promises. That is certainly not what they get from the EU.
A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.
Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.
We are living in dangerous times.
From YouGov today:
Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?
% ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23 Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24
So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
I think this is a policy that sounds terrible to anyone who hasn't wandered around the richer bits of London lately. It is getting like a ghost town there.
Regent's Park is the worst. There's giant terrace upon giant terrace in and around Park Rd, NW1, with no-one in there at all. You can look inside the houses and it's obvious that not a speck of dust has been displaced for months. I don't see why some of these places couldn't be used on a temporary basis, in an emergency. If well managed, it would work.
With the amount of property law that exists in this country just how would this be possible?
I can think of only three reasons why anyone should vote for Brexit.
1. It will make the country more prosperous
2. It will stop intrusive regulation. Lets call it the 'straight banana' factor
3. It will mean we can keep unwanted foreigners out.
The first one is plainly ridiculous. The world and his wife including almost every business leader and nearly every politician have said we'll be financially worse off.
The second is even more spurious. After a catastrophic fire and the worst financial crisis in our history no one but a complete idiot would be advocating loosening regulation and the EU's record on safety regulation is exemplary.
The third is puzzling. If we're worried about numbers why are we letting more people from outside the EU in than we're getting from inside?
My sense is that it's the last thrashing of Empire from a bunch of old union jack wavers and the young particularly find it sad and pathetic.
Sorry Roger but more rubbish from you. In fact it is exactly the opposite. It is the old patrician Tories who were and are most in favour of the EU. They see it as a replacement for the Empire and even now have the arrogance to think that if we were fully engaged we would naturally end up leading it and would bend it to our will.
Your arrogance is to think that the reasons you can come up with are the ones driving people to oppose the EU. I suppose from your little place in Southern France it might look that way but only if you are extremely blinkered. People want accountable, democratic Government that they can get rid of if they don't fulfil their promises. That is certainly not what they get from the EU.
I had to laugh at the "EU's record on safety regulation is exemplary" bit. We're in the EU.
I understand your thinking but - and I have no idea how old you are - this has a 1992 feel to it. The very real fear among Tories is that if they cling on now they will be out of power for a generation.
There is a serious risk that happens if the leadership changes too, only it will happen sooner.
I am not sure the public will take kindly to a revolving door of leaders in Number 10, so soon after an election. It will look positively chaotic.
I am not saying that May should be there for the long haul. It's clear she has been found wanting. However, she has just secured 42% of the vote. The country deserves a period of stability whilst the Brexit talks get underway. If that period is led by May as a figurehead whilst the people under her get on with the job, I think that's immensely more preferable than the potential fallout a leadership election could cause.
May should not lead the Tories into the next election, on that I think everyone can agree. She should not stay beyond the end (or nearing end) of the Brexit process. However, I think on balance the best thing the Tories can do is get their heads down and get back to the coal face rather than launch into another 6 months of severe instability and naval gazing.
I think effectively a secondment would work where Hammond is chosen as leader on the understanding that Davis will be deputy and Brexit lead. It is made clear that this is for the duration of the Article 50 talks, whereupon a full leadership election will take place. The MPs would have to consent to this course of action. They have one week to sort it out and move on. Any longer and it becomes an indulgence the country cannot afford at a critical time.
A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.
Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.
We are living in dangerous times.
From YouGov today:
Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?
% ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23 Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24
So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
I think this is a policy that sounds terrible to anyone who hasn't wandered around the richer bits of London lately. It is getting like a ghost town there.
Regent's Park is the worst. There's giant terrace upon giant terrace in and around Park Rd, NW1, with no-one in there at all. You can look inside the houses and it's obvious that not a speck of dust has been displaced for months. I don't see why some of these places couldn't be used on a temporary basis, in an emergency. If well managed, it would work.
With the amount of property law that exists in this country just how would this be possible?
A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.
Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.
We are living in dangerous times.
From YouGov today:
Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?
% ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23 Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24
So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
I think this is a policy that sounds terrible to anyone who hasn't wandered around the richer bits of London lately. It is getting like a ghost town there.
Regent's Park is the worst. There's giant terrace upon giant terrace in and around Park Rd, NW1, with no-one in there at all. You can look inside the houses and it's obvious that not a speck of dust has been displaced for months. I don't see why some of these places couldn't be used on a temporary basis, in an emergency. If well managed, it would work.
With the amount of property law that exists in this country just how would this be possible?
Dunno. Might be worth looking into.
I would have thought housing families in such properties would be extremely inefficient on the public finances.
A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.
Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.
We are living in dangerous times.
From YouGov today:
Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?
% ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23 Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24
So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
I think this is a policy that sounds terrible to anyone who hasn't wandered around the richer bits of London lately. It is getting like a ghost town there.
Regent's Park is the worst. There's giant terrace upon giant terrace in and around Park Rd, NW1, with no-one in there at all. You can look inside the houses and it's obvious that not a speck of dust has been displaced for months. I don't see why some of these places couldn't be used on a temporary basis, in an emergency. If well managed, it would work.
With the amount of property law that exists in this country just how would this be possible?
Dunno. Might be worth looking into.
I would have thought housing families in such properties would be extremely inefficient on the public finances.
Dunno. The space is there though. We shouldn't just dismiss it. Food for thought.
After May steps down or is pushed out the Tory's need to skip a generation; they need someone who the next generation can relate to, and I think the obvious candidate is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Just look at how well he performs on Have I Got News for You, and even Mairh Black of the SNP has spoken and written warmly of him.
I like to put my money where my mouth is, so what odds can I get for a £20 wager?
evens for a laugh
Even for a laugh, no to Jacob Rees-Mogg, the latter day Mervyn Griffith-Jones.
The idea that JRM can connect with the millennial youth is the funniest thing I have read on PB for many a month. That said, the uber leftie Vicky Cohen does fancy him, and told him so on HIGNFY.
I can think of only three reasons why anyone should vote for Brexit.
1. It will make the country more prosperous
2. It will stop intrusive regulation. Lets call it the 'straight banana' factor
3. It will mean we can keep unwanted foreigners out.
The first one is plainly ridiculous. The world and his wife including almost every business leader and nearly every politician have said we'll be financially worse off.
The second is even more spurious. After a catastrophic fire and the worst financial crisis in our history no one but a complete idiot would be advocating loosening regulation and the EU's record on safety regulation is exemplary.
The third is puzzling. If we're worried about numbers why are we letting more people from outside the EU in than we're getting from inside?
My sense is that it's the last thrashing of Empire from a bunch of old union jack wavers and the young particularly find it sad and pathetic.
Sorry Roger but more rubbish from you. In fact it is exactly the opposite. It is the old patrician Tories who were and are most in favour of the EU. They see it as a replacement for the Empire and even now have the arrogance to think that if we were fully engaged we would naturally end up leading it and would bend it to our will.
Your arrogance is to think that the reasons you can come up with are the ones driving people to oppose the EU. I suppose from your little place in Southern France it might look that way but only if you are extremely blinkered. People want accountable, democratic Government that they can get rid of if they don't fulfil their promises. That is certainly not what they get from the EU.
I had to laugh at the "EU's record on safety regulation is exemplary" bit. We're in the EU.
The EU has been leading improvements in standards, I suppose some would call it 'red tape'.
A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.
Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.
We are living in dangerous times.
From YouGov today:
Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?
% ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23 Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24
So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
I think this is a policy that sounds terrible to anyone who hasn't wandered around the richer bits of London lately. It is getting like a ghost town there.
Regent's Park is the worst. There's giant terrace upon giant terrace in and around Park Rd, NW1, with no-one in there at all. You can look inside the houses and it's obvious that not a speck of dust has been displaced for months. I don't see why some of these places couldn't be used on a temporary basis, in an emergency. If well managed, it would work.
With the amount of property law that exists in this country just how would this be possible?
Dunno. Might be worth looking into.
I would have thought housing families in such properties would be extremely inefficient on the public finances.
Dunno. The space is there though. We shouldn't just dismiss it. Food for thought.
How many families could you realistically fit in per million pound house? I suspect not many. At that point you may as well build a whole new batch of social housing.
Sod Hammond. The guy's Maybot MK II. We now know that he was sidelined and humiliated by Nick Timothy, but what was his response? Ask the cabinet to record their own humiliations at Nick Timothy's hands in an Excel document. Utterly pathetic! I can't think of another Chancellor in British political history who'd have tolerated such disrespect. Weak, craven and a proven dud. Just anoint Boris as leader. The man has stardust. The Tories will probably be slaughtered by Jezza in a few years anyway, so they have nothing to lose.
I can think of only three reasons why anyone should vote for Brexit.
1. It will make the country more prosperous
2. It will stop intrusive regulation. Lets call it the 'straight banana' factor
3. It will mean we can keep unwanted foreigners out.
The first one is plainly ridiculous. The world and his wife including almost every business leader and nearly every politician have said we'll be financially worse off.
The second is even more spurious. After a catastrophic fire and the worst financial crisis in our history no one but a complete idiot would be advocating loosening regulation and the EU's record on safety regulation is exemplary.
The third is puzzling. If we're worried about numbers why are we letting more people from outside the EU in than we're getting from inside?
My sense is that it's the last thrashing of Empire from a bunch of old union jack wavers and the young particularly find it sad and pathetic.
Sorry Roger but more rubbish from you. In fact it is exactly the opposite. It is the old patrician Tories who were and are most in favour of the EU. They see it as a replacement for the Empire and even now have the arrogance to think that if we were fully engaged we would naturally end up leading it and would bend it to our will.
Your arrogance is to think that the reasons you can come up with are the ones driving people to oppose the EU. I suppose from your little place in Southern France it might look that way but only if you are extremely blinkered. People want accountable, democratic Government that they can get rid of if they don't fulfil their promises. That is certainly not what they get from the EU.
I had to laugh at the "EU's record on safety regulation is exemplary" bit. We're in the EU.
The EU has been leading improvements in standards, I suppose some would call it 'red tape'.
Yeah, but the two examples Roger quoted happened while we were in the EU.
Docu-drama telling the story of the Conservative Party's 2016 leadership campaign, from the day David Cameron resigned to the day Theresa May became Prime Minister. Based on exhaustive research and first-person testimonies, this dramatised narrative goes beyond the headlines to lay bare the politicking and positioning, betrayals and blunders of this extraordinary political time. The programme also features key interviews with people who were intimately involved in the campaigns of the main contenders.
Presumably the BBC is showing it tonight because it might be ancient history by Friday.
If Hammond is such a great choice why did he not stand a year ago when he was foreign secretary? Like May i do not think he is very good on tv.If May stood down tomorrow Damian Green 25/1 would take over temporarily and that gives him an edge over rivals. Green is nothing special but 25/1 is massive given the context. The best Tory I know on tv is Esther Mcvie who was a junior minister in the Coalition then lost her seat in 2015 but has just got a seat in the new parliament.The experience of being out of parliament will have been good for her What the Tories should be looking for longterm is someone to take on the crypto -communists who now control the education system the way Thatcher took on the crypto-communists who controlled the trade unions in her day. Tories need to ask how did 12 million people including the majority of students end up voting for someone like Corbyn and if the reason is not the left wing education system then what is it?
In all fairness, I'm inclined to think the youth vote was down to massive amounts of freebies being promised by Labour, combined with a bit of anger about the housing market, rather than indoctrination, though.
I wouldn't pay too much attention to the TES and its polling of readers. It's effectively the house magazine of the NUT and its writers don't take the Morning Star because they try to avoid being defiled by touching right wing newspapers.
I am supposed to be becoming an NUT member in September when my Union merges with them. I am currently drafting a letter of resignation that I hope Mary Bousted, who has blithely announced she has decided she will remain the senior elected official for five years, will not relish.
I think it is fair to say though that most teachers and academics lean left, if you are a Tory you tend to keep quiet about it when the common room discussion turns to politics
Docu-drama telling the story of the Conservative Party's 2016 leadership campaign, from the day David Cameron resigned to the day Theresa May became Prime Minister. Based on exhaustive research and first-person testimonies, this dramatised narrative goes beyond the headlines to lay bare the politicking and positioning, betrayals and blunders of this extraordinary political time. The programme also features key interviews with people who were intimately involved in the campaigns of the main contenders.
Presumably the BBC is showing it tonight because it might be ancient history by Friday.
I will watch it even if it does clash with Poldark
If May does go I do think there would be merit in both Hammond and / or Davis saying they'll stand for leader but on the basis they won't ever fight a GE.
The last thing any Con MP is going to want is a GE - so I expect all leadership candidates will have to rule it out and say the Parliament will go 5 years.
Of course May ruled it out and then went back on her word - but this time the promise will be more believable because both the threat of defeat is far greater and no new PM is going to want to make the same mess that May made.
Hammond / Davis can both say that Brexit is the all encompassing challenge and they'll get the job done. But having done that they wouldn't want to carry on as PM on a long term basis (Davis can also cite his age) so would then step down so a new leader could be chosen to go forward to the next GE and thereafter.
This would be attractive to MPs as it would give them confidence of no GE whilst getting the most credible person for Brexit and giving time for the next long term leader to emerge.
Finally it also has the advantage of potentially timing Corbyn out - he'll be 73 in 2022 - yes he could easily still be Lab leader then but he'll be looking older and even more yesterday's man - and gives maximum chance of next GE being fought under a completely new landscape - new fresh Con leader and post Brexit.
Sod Hammond. The guy's Maybot MK II. We now know that he was sidelined and humiliated by Nick Timothy, but what was his response? Ask the cabinet to record their own humiliations at Nick Timothy's hands in an Excel document. Utterly pathetic! I can't think of another Chancellor in British political history who'd have tolerated such disrespect. Weak, craven and a proven dud. Just anoint Boris as leader. The man has stardust. The Tories will probably be slaughtered by Jezza in a few years anyway, so they have nothing to lose.
Hammond is mild mannered and very bright, an Oxford 1st, fluent in French and has had a successful career in politics, he is someone the EU would vaguely respect unlike Boris. 42% voted against Corbyn and there is no guarantee they will not do so again next time too
If Hammond is such a great choice why did he not stand a year ago when he was foreign secretary? Like May i do not think he is very good on tv.If May stood down tomorrow Damian Green 25/1 would take over temporarily and that gives him an edge over rivals. Green is nothing special but 25/1 is massive given the context. The best Tory I know on tv is Esther Mcvie who was a junior minister in the Coalition then lost her seat in 2015 but has just got a seat in the new parliament.The experience of being out of parliament will have been good for her What the Tories should be looking for longterm is someone to take on the crypto -communists who now control the education system the way Thatcher took on the crypto-communists who controlled the trade unions in her day. Tories need to ask how did 12 million people including the majority of students end up voting for someone like Corbyn and if the reason is not the left wing education system then what is it?
In all fairness, I'm inclined to think the youth vote was down to massive amounts of freebies being promised by Labour, combined with a bit of anger about the housing market, rather than indoctrination, though.
I wouldn't pay too much attention to the TES and its polling of readers. It's effectively the house magazine of the NUT and its writers don't take the Morning Star because they try to avoid being defiled by touching right wing newspapers.
I am supposed to be becoming an NUT member in September when my Union merges with them. I am currently drafting a letter of resignation that I hope Mary Bousted, who has blithely announced she has decided she will remain the senior elected official for five years, will not relish.
I think it is fair to say though that most teachers and academics lean left, if you are a Tory you tend to keep quiet about it when the common room discussion turns to politics
In 2010 teachers voted Conservative. It was a remarkable act of political incompetence that Michael Gove managed (some would even say chose) to alienate the professionals who started out on his side.
Sod Hammond. The guy's Maybot MK II. We now know that he was sidelined and humiliated by Nick Timothy, but what was his response? Ask the cabinet to record their own humiliations at Nick Timothy's hands in an Excel document. Utterly pathetic! I can't think of another Chancellor in British political history who'd have tolerated such disrespect. Weak, craven and a proven dud. Just anoint Boris as leader. The man has stardust. The Tories will probably be slaughtered by Jezza in a few years anyway, so they have nothing to lose.
If Johnson is the solution, the Tories really are in deep shit. Mind you, I would say the same about Labour and Corbyn
Edit the Timothy spreadsheet issue applies to Johnson as well as Hammond surely?
If Hammond is such a great choice why did he not stand a year ago when he was foreign secretary? Like May i do not think he is very good on tv.If May stood down tomorrow Damian Green 25/1 would take over temporarily and that gives him an edge over rivals. Green is nothing special but 25/1 is massive given the context. The best Tory I know on tv is Esther Mcvie who was a junior minister in the Coalition then lost her seat in 2015 but has just got a seat in the new parliament.The experience of being out of parliament will have been good for her What the Tories should be looking for longterm is someone to take on the crypto -communists who now control the education system the way Thatcher took on the crypto-communists who controlled the trade unions in her day. Tories need to ask how did 12 million people including the majority of students end up voting for someone like Corbyn and if the reason is not the left wing education system then what is it?
In all fairness, I'm inclined to think the youth vote was down to massive amounts of freebies being promised by Labour, combined with a bit of anger about the housing market, rather than indoctrination, though.
I wouldn't pay too much attention to the TES and its polling of readers. It's effectively the house magazine of the NUT and its writers don't take the Morning Star because they try to avoid being defiled by touching right wing newspapers.
I am supposed to be becoming an NUT member in September when my Union merges with them. I am currently drafting a letter of resignation that I hope Mary Bousted, who has blithely announced she has decided she will remain the senior elected official for five years, will not relish.
I think it is fair to say though that most teachers and academics lean left, if you are a Tory you tend to keep quiet about it when the common room discussion turns to politics
In 2010 teachers voted Conservative. It was a remarkable act of political incompetence that Michael Gove managed (some would even say chose) to alienate the professionals who started out on his side.
But Michael 'I love Tony Blair' Gove is a darling, in some Tory circles....
Meanwhile, I see that Macron is projected to win a majority in the French Parliamentary Elections - good news.
Boris should be anointed leader, and he should stand up and say the following: 'Look, the two-year timeline was ridiculous so we're asking our EU friends for an indefinite extension. If, after that, we haven't got a deal that pleases everyone, we'll have another referendum whose options are Dave's Deal or WTO'. If they did that the Tories would win the next GE with a landslide.
I can think of only three reasons why anyone should vote for Brexit.
1. It will make the country more prosperous
2. It will stop intrusive regulation. Lets call it the 'straight banana' factor
3. It will mean we can keep unwanted foreigners out.
The first one is plainly ridiculous. The world and his wife including almost every business leader and nearly every politician have said we'll be financially worse off.
The second is even more spurious. After a catastrophic fire and the worst financial crisis in our history no one but a complete idiot would be advocating loosening regulation and the EU's record on safety regulation is exemplary.
The third is puzzling. If we're worried about numbers why are we letting more people from outside the EU in than we're getting from inside?
My sense is that it's the last thrashing of Empire from a bunch of old union jack wavers and the young particularly find it sad and pathetic.
Sorry Roger but more rubbish from you. In fact it is exactly the opposite. It is the old patrician Tories who were and are most in favour of the EU. They see it as a replacement for the Empire and even now have the arrogance to think that if we were fully engaged we would naturally end up leading it and would bend it to our will.
Your arrogance is to think that the reasons you can come up with are the ones driving people to oppose the EU. I suppose from your little place in Southern France it might look that way but only if you are extremely blinkered. People want accountable, democratic Government that they can get rid of if they don't fulfil their promises. That is certainly not what they get from the EU.
I had to laugh at the "EU's record on safety regulation is exemplary" bit. We're in the EU.
The EU has been leading improvements in standards, I suppose some would call it 'red tape'.
Actually the improvements in standards in things like fire safety is being led by organisations above the EU. Notably the ISO.
The most notable thing the EU has done in terms of fire safety that has had a direct impact on me in the last couple of decades is to change all the colours on the fire extinguishers to make it far more difficult to identify them at a distance.
They've had a whopping con put upon them that 40% of them going to university is "a good thing". In Blair's day before this bananas expansion I recall it being put about that there was a £400k lifetime pay premium to having a degree so, the (then smaller) tution fees were still a good deal. Shame nobody seemed to think the law of supply and demand would still apply if you increased the number of graduates in a confetti paper qualifications inflationary war. Still less that they'd then be competing in some cases with the cream of Eastern Europe willing to do jobs for even less.
Add in ultra low interest rates spiralling house prices up and 20% deposits and they are royally screwed compared to us (relative) oldies.
What would I do? Something like -
Stop sending so many to university (half?), subsidise those that do more, build a lot more houses pdq though it will ruffle some nimby feathers, restrict low skilled immigration a tad, oh and put up interest rates to drop house prices. Bit of negative equity for a few might help a lot more youngsters (and oldies saving for a pension).
And tell a few more 18 year olds to "do the bloody maths" as to whether it's really worth going to university? Are you ever really going to get approx £50k back in living expenses, tuition fees, and on top of that opportunity costs for foregone years working?
Yep.
I would add that the state should support those university entrants doing subjects we need. If you are doing STEM subjects then you get your fees paid but only if you do a minimum amount of time working in the UK after you finish university (5 years seems to be the popular number at the moment). But I agree with all the rest of what you say except maybe the limit on immigration. There are better ways to handle that than simply stopping people coming in.
If we needed more STEM graduates, the market would pay a huge salary premium but it doesn't because we don't because we've already lost too much industry and R&D to abroad.
Simply not true. Many companies bring in STEM graduates from overseas because of the lack of graduates in this country. One of the things I regularly hear both on the media and in person is employers saying they can't get the right kinds of graduates from within the UK.
That is not quite the same thing if, rather than raise salaries to attract more home students, employers would rather pay less and import labour. I have no objection to government saying the market has failed so it will intervene to give free owls to those studying STEM subjects (as I did all those decades ago).
If Hammond is such a great choice why did he not stand a year ago when he was foreign secretary? Like May i do not think he is very good on tv.If May stood down tomorrow Damian Green 25/1 would take over temporarily and that gives him an edge over rivals. Green is nothing special but 25/1 is massive given the context. The best Tory I know on tv is Esther Mcvie who was a junior minister in the Coalition then lost her seat in 2015 but has just got a seat in the new parliament.The experience of being out of parliament will have been good for her What the Tories should be looking for longterm is someone to take on the crypto -communists who now control the education system the way Thatcher took on the crypto-communists who controlled the trade unions in her day. Tories need to ask how did 12 million people including the majority of students end up voting for someone like Corbyn and if the reason is not the left wing education system then what is it?
In all fairness, I'm inclined to think the youth vote was down to massive amounts of freebies being promised by Labour, combined with a bit of anger about the housing market, rather than indoctrination, though.
I wouldn't pay too much attention to the TES and its polling of readers. It's effectively the house magazine of the NUT and its writers don't take the Morning Star because they try to avoid being defiled by touching right wing newspapers.
I am supposed to be becoming an NUT member in September when my Union merges with them. I am currently drafting a letter of resignation that I hope Mary Bousted, who has blithely announced she has decided she will remain the senior elected official for five years, will not relish.
I think it is fair to say though that most teachers and academics lean left, if you are a Tory you tend to keep quiet about it when the common room discussion turns to politics
In 2010 teachers voted Conservative. It was a remarkable act of political incompetence that Michael Gove managed (some would even say chose) to alienate the professionals who started out on his side.
May's issue is not that she is dull, but that she is incompetent. Conservative leaders have never sold themselves as lovable or exciting figures. They have, however, sold themselves as competent figures, and when that falls apart the sh*t really does hit the fan for the party. This is why Hammond may not be such a bad choice - he is dull, but may well be far more competent than May was. I believe May's deficiencies led an increasing number of voters to take a second look at Jeremy Corbyn and Corbyn took advantage of that opportunity.
That is not quite the same thing if, rather than raise salaries to attract more home students, employers would rather pay less and import labour. I have no objection to government saying the market has failed so it will intervene to give free owls to those studying STEM subjects (as I did all those decades ago).
Again simply not true. How do you attract more home students if you need them now rather than in 3 or 4 years? If the universities are not producing enough then you have to look overseas for them. People are choosing not to do STEM subjects because they are perceived as being too hard. Even though the jobs on offer at the end pay significantly more than the going rate for other graduate roles.
Why do you think it is that graduates with STEM degrees can get bursaries from the government to go on and do teaching qualifications? They are offered because we have a real shortage of teachers in those specific areas.
Boris should be anointed leader, and he should stand up and say the following: 'Look, the two-year timeline was ridiculous so we're asking our EU friends for an indefinite extension. If, after that, we haven't got a deal that pleases everyone, we'll have another referendum whose options are Dave's Deal or WTO'. If they did that the Tories would win the next GE with a landslide.
If Boris became Prime Minister he probably opt for a BREXIT based on himself playing wiff-waff against each of other 27 EU national leaders. Winner dictates the terms with the losing nation.
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
French Independent Liberal Democrats Orange Bookers Winning Over There.
Pretty much, if Macron was running in the LD leadership race he would sweep to victory
I can't help feeling that the last place a British Macron would find himself is running for the leadership of the Lib Dems.
He certainly would not be running for the leadership of Corbyn Labour or the Tories
I think that a British Macron might have done quite well in the Labour Leadership election of 2015, Burnham, Cooper and Kendall were offering more of the same and Corbyn offering old ideas barely repackaged. A candidate offering a vision of the future would have been appealing.
May's issue is not that she is dull, but that she is incompetent. Conservative leaders have never sold themselves as lovable or exciting figures. They have, however, sold themselves as competent figures, and when that falls apart the sh*t really does hit the fan for the party. This is why Hammond may not be such a bad choice - he is dull, but may well be far more competent than May was. I believe May's deficiencies led an increasing number of voters to take a second look at Jeremy Corbyn and Corbyn took advantage of that opportunity.
Disagree. The Tories now have full ownership of Brexit, and there's not a single sensible commentator who says this won't result in a noticeable economic hit. So the Tories' reputation for dull-but-pragmatic competence has been sacrificed on the alter of ideology. Their only option now is to counter the Corbyn phenomenon with a rock star of their own. Dreary bank managers won't cut it.
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
French Independent Liberal Democrats Orange Bookers Winning Over There.
Pretty much, if Macron was running in the LD leadership race he would sweep to victory
I can't help feeling that the last place a British Macron would find himself is running for the leadership of the Lib Dems.
He certainly would not be running for the leadership of Corbyn Labour or the Tories
The LDs need a radical new vision and purpose. Macron-esque centrism would suit them well. Their problem is that they tend, for historical reasons, to reward campaigners and party grandees with the leadership, which leads to the maintenance of the status quo as a wishywashy, muddled party lurching from orange bookism to Labour-lite depending on the mood of the leader of the day. More ambition is needed.
Boris should be anointed leader, and he should stand up and say the following: 'Look, the two-year timeline was ridiculous so we're asking our EU friends for an indefinite extension. If, after that, we haven't got a deal that pleases everyone, we'll have another referendum whose options are Dave's Deal or WTO'. If they did that the Tories would win the next GE with a landslide.
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
That is actually a relatively bad result for Macron. Polling was all pointing to 400-440 seats for REM. IIRC the LR figure is about in line with polling, the FN seem to have hit the higher range of what they were expected to get, but PS and LFI have quite largely outperformed expectations.
That points perhaps to a worry among some of Macron's more left supporters about any drift rightwards - and a last minute swingback to both PS and LFI. LFI can take this as a decent result, while for PS it remains a catastrophe of course.
Still, indicates that people generally do not like landslides and will vote to prevent them.
A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.
Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.
We are living in dangerous times.
From YouGov today:
Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?
% ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23 Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24
So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
I think this is a policy that sounds terrible to anyone who hasn't wandered around the richer bits of London lately. It is getting like a ghost town there.
Regent's Park is the worst. There's giant terrace upon giant terrace in and around Park Rd, NW1, with no-one in there at all. You can look inside the houses and it's obvious that not a speck of dust has been displaced for months. I don't see why some of these places couldn't be used on a temporary basis, in an emergency. If well managed, it would work.
With the amount of property law that exists in this country just how would this be possible?
Dunno. Might be worth looking into.
I would have thought housing families in such properties would be extremely inefficient on the public finances.
Dunno. The space is there though. We shouldn't just dismiss it. Food for thought.
How many families could you realistically fit in per million pound house? I suspect not many. At that point you may as well build a whole new batch of social housing.
A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.
Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.
We are living in dangerous times.
From YouGov today:
Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?
% ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23 Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24
So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
I think this is a policy that sounds terrible to anyone who hasn't wandered around the richer bits of London lately. It is getting like a ghost town there.
Regent's Park is the worst. There's giant terrace upon giant terrace in and around Park Rd, NW1, with no-one in there at all. You can look inside the houses and it's obvious that not a speck of dust has been displaced for months. I don't see why some of these places couldn't be used on a temporary basis, in an emergency. If well managed, it would work.
With the amount of property law that exists in this country just how would this be possible?
Dunno. Might be worth looking into.
I would have thought housing families in such properties would be extremely inefficient on the public finances.
Dunno. The space is there though. We shouldn't just dismiss it. Food for thought.
How many families could you realistically fit in per million pound house? I suspect not many. At that point you may as well build a whole new batch of social housing.
You'd fit a fair few in these places!!
I doubt you would fit many families without extensive remodeling.
May's issue is not that she is dull, but that she is incompetent. Conservative leaders have never sold themselves as lovable or exciting figures. They have, however, sold themselves as competent figures, and when that falls apart the sh*t really does hit the fan for the party. This is why Hammond may not be such a bad choice - he is dull, but may well be far more competent than May was. I believe May's deficiencies led an increasing number of voters to take a second look at Jeremy Corbyn and Corbyn took advantage of that opportunity.
Disagree. The Tories now have full ownership of Brexit, and there's not a single sensible commentator who says this won't result in a noticeable economic hit. So the Tories' reputation for dull-but-pragmatic competence has been sacrificed on the alter of ideology. Their only option now is to counter the Corbyn phenomenon with a rock star of their own. Dreary bank managers won't cut it.
They can regain their reputation for competence IMHO, depending on how they handle Brexit.
The Corbyn phenomenon is an interesting one, but the rise in his ratings has occurred only recently. Thus, outside of a committed base among my generation, the question is how much of Corbyn's rise is to do with him being a charismatic, personable figure as it is to do with a sense among many that their discontent isn't be listened to and acknowledged by the Conservative Party? I feel that many voted for Corbyn not because they agree with the entire Corbyn/McDonnell vision but as a way to signal their sense of discontent with the current system.
People on Twitter have been complaining that the BBC haven't covered a protest outside Downing Street. Do they really think that it is newsworthy? It happens all the bloody time.
May's issue is not that she is dull, but that she is incompetent. Conservative leaders have never sold themselves as lovable or exciting figures. They have, however, sold themselves as competent figures, and when that falls apart the sh*t really does hit the fan for the party. This is why Hammond may not be such a bad choice - he is dull, but may well be far more competent than May was. I believe May's deficiencies led an increasing number of voters to take a second look at Jeremy Corbyn and Corbyn took advantage of that opportunity.
Disagree. The Tories now have full ownership of Brexit, and there's not a single sensible commentator who says this won't result in a noticeable economic hit. So the Tories' reputation for dull-but-pragmatic competence has been sacrificed on the alter of ideology. Their only option now is to counter the Corbyn phenomenon with a rock star of their own. Dreary bank managers won't cut it.
They can regain their reputation for competence IMHO, depending on how they handle Brexit.
The Corbyn phenomenon is an interesting one, but the rise in his ratings has occurred only recently. Thus, outside of a committed base among my generation, the question is how much of Corbyn's rise is to do with him being a charismatic, personable figure as it is to do with a sense among many that their discontent isn't be listened to and acknowledged by the Conservative Party? I feel that many voted for Corbyn not because they agree with the entire Corbyn/McDonnell vision but as a way to signal their sense of discontent with the current system.
Indeed and the fact 42% voted for the Tories even with a dull leader and a poor campaign shows there are still huge reservations about a Corbyn McDonnell government
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
French Independent Liberal Democrats Orange Bookers Winning Over There.
Pretty much, if Macron was running in the LD leadership race he would sweep to victory
I can't help feeling that the last place a British Macron would find himself is running for the leadership of the Lib Dems.
He certainly would not be running for the leadership of Corbyn Labour or the Tories
What are the big differences between Macron and Cameron?
Cameron no longer leads the Tories, the Tories and Labour are now both committed to Brexit, unlike Cameron Macron was also committed to the Euro as well
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
French Independent Liberal Democrats Orange Bookers Winning Over There.
Pretty much, if Macron was running in the LD leadership race he would sweep to victory
I can't help feeling that the last place a British Macron would find himself is running for the leadership of the Lib Dems.
He certainly would not be running for the leadership of Corbyn Labour or the Tories
I think that a British Macron might have done quite well in the Labour Leadership election of 2015, Burnham, Cooper and Kendall were offering more of the same and Corbyn offering old ideas barely repackaged. A candidate offering a vision of the future would have been appealing.
Possibly but Kendall was closest to Macron ideologically and her abysmal score shows Labour clearly wanted a shift to the left, Corbyn is closer to Hamon and Melenchon than he is to Macron
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
That is actually a relatively bad result for Macron. Polling was all pointing to 400-440 seats for REM. IIRC the LR figure is about in line with polling, the FN seem to have hit the higher range of what they were expected to get, but PS and LFI have quite largely outperformed expectations.
That points perhaps to a worry among some of Macron's more left supporters about any drift rightwards - and a last minute swingback to both PS and LFI. LFI can take this as a decent result, while for PS it remains a catastrophe of course.
Still, indicates that people generally do not like landslides and will vote to prevent them.
355/577 gives a majority of 133 - a landslide in any terms
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
French Independent Liberal Democrats Orange Bookers Winning Over There.
Pretty much, if Macron was running in the LD leadership race he would sweep to victory
I can't help feeling that the last place a British Macron would find himself is running for the leadership of the Lib Dems.
He certainly would not be running for the leadership of Corbyn Labour or the Tories
The LDs need a radical new vision and purpose. Macron-esque centrism would suit them well. Their problem is that they tend, for historical reasons, to reward campaigners and party grandees with the leadership, which leads to the maintenance of the status quo as a wishywashy, muddled party lurching from orange bookism to Labour-lite depending on the mood of the leader of the day. More ambition is needed.
The LDs should be firmly soft Brexit, socially liberal and economically centrist to make the most progress
A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.
Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.
We are living in dangerous times.
From YouGov today:
Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?
% ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23 Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24
So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
I think this is a policy that sounds terrible to anyone who hasn't wandered around the richer bits of London lately. It is getting like a ghost town there.
Regent's Park is the worst. There's giant terrace upon giant terrace in and around Park Rd, NW1, with no-one in there at all. You can look inside the houses and it's obvious that not a speck of dust has been displaced for months. I don't see why some of these places couldn't be used on a temporary basis, in an emergency. If well managed, it would work.
I used to live in Park Square East. The house to our left was permanently used, as the one to the right. Indeed, I think I knew every resident of my little bit of Regent's Park (including the late Bryan Gould). None of the houses was left empty - except when there was building work and then it was a total disaster, as you needed approval at every step of the way from English Heritage and the Crown Estates.
As I said a few days ago Ed Davey Leader and Jo Swinson Deputy Leader - as soon as possible because the Liberal Democrats need to be able to effectively express their views in this current very unstable time.
......and David Davis Theresa May and Liam Fox arrived to a bleary eyed EU delegation worse for wear after a night at Bloody Louis following Macron's victory.
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
That is actually a relatively bad result for Macron. Polling was all pointing to 400-440 seats for REM. IIRC the LR figure is about in line with polling, the FN seem to have hit the higher range of what they were expected to get, but PS and LFI have quite largely outperformed expectations.
That points perhaps to a worry among some of Macron's more left supporters about any drift rightwards - and a last minute swingback to both PS and LFI. LFI can take this as a decent result, while for PS it remains a catastrophe of course.
Still, indicates that people generally do not like landslides and will vote to prevent them.
It does suggest that the biggest danger for Macron if he underperforms may come from neither LR or the FN or PS but Melenchon and the LFI
Boris should be anointed leader, and he should stand up and say the following: 'Look, the two-year timeline was ridiculous so we're asking our EU friends for an indefinite extension. If, after that, we haven't got a deal that pleases everyone, we'll have another referendum whose options are Dave's Deal or WTO'. If they did that the Tories would win the next GE with a landslide.
Dave's deal isn't on the table.
Yes, but Boris should just say it anyway. He endorsed the 350-million-a-week thing so he clearly has no scruples in that regard. But I actually think our EU friends would be perfectly happy to revisit Dave's deal. After all, that would be an outcome very much in their interests.
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
That is actually a relatively bad result for Macron. Polling was all pointing to 400-440 seats for REM. IIRC the LR figure is about in line with polling, the FN seem to have hit the higher range of what they were expected to get, but PS and LFI have quite largely outperformed expectations.
That points perhaps to a worry among some of Macron's more left supporters about any drift rightwards - and a last minute swingback to both PS and LFI. LFI can take this as a decent result, while for PS it remains a catastrophe of course.
Still, indicates that people generally do not like landslides and will vote to prevent them.
355/577 gives a majority of 133 - a landslide in any terms
Elabe projection is 395-425.
Yes definitely, what I meant was that there seems to have been a last minute swingback to try and stop such a landslide - but clearly not at a significant enough level to halt the landslide. But it's a bog standard landslide rather than the mega-landslide we were expecting.
If the Elabe projection turns out to be accurate then that is more in line with the 1st round projections.
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
That is actually a relatively bad result for Macron. Polling was all pointing to 400-440 seats for REM. IIRC the LR figure is about in line with polling, the FN seem to have hit the higher range of what they were expected to get, but PS and LFI have quite largely outperformed expectations.
That points perhaps to a worry among some of Macron's more left supporters about any drift rightwards - and a last minute swingback to both PS and LFI. LFI can take this as a decent result, while for PS it remains a catastrophe of course.
Still, indicates that people generally do not like landslides and will vote to prevent them.
It does suggest that the biggest danger for Macron if he underperforms may come from neither LR or the FN or PS but Melenchon and the LFI
Especially as Melenchon has also won his seat in parliament, and will really be the only other party to come out of this election having had a good night.
As I said a few days ago Ed Davey Leader and Jo Swinson Deputy Leader - as soon as possible because the Liberal Democrats need to be able to effectively express their views in this current very unstable time.
Why Ed Davey if I may ask? Rather than Cable or Lamb?
A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.
Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.
We are living in dangerous times.
From YouGov today:
Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?
% ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23 Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24
So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
I think this is a policy that sounds terrible to anyone who hasn't wandered around the richer bits of London lately. It is getting like a ghost town there.
Regent's Park is the worst. There's giant terrace upon giant terrace in and around Park Rd, NW1, with no-one in there at all. You can look inside the houses and it's obvious that not a speck of dust has been displaced for months. I don't see why some of these places couldn't be used on a temporary basis, in an emergency. If well managed, it would work.
I used to live in Park Square East. The house to our left was permanently used, as the one to the right. Indeed, I think I knew every resident of my little bit of Regent's Park (including the late Bryan Gould). None of the houses was left empty - except when there was building work and then it was a total disaster, as you needed approval at every step of the way from English Heritage and the Crown Estates.
Thankfully Bryan Gould is still with us, albeit over in New Zealand.
Boris should be anointed leader, and he should stand up and say the following: 'Look, the two-year timeline was ridiculous so we're asking our EU friends for an indefinite extension. If, after that, we haven't got a deal that pleases everyone, we'll have another referendum whose options are Dave's Deal or WTO'. If they did that the Tories would win the next GE with a landslide.
Dave's deal isn't on the table.
Yes, but Boris should just say it anyway. He endorsed the 350-million-a-week thing so he clearly has no scruples in that regard. But I actually think our EU friends would be perfectly happy to revisit Dave's deal. After all, that would be an outcome very much in their interests.
I think they'll be pleased to be finally rid of us.
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
That is actually a relatively bad result for Macron. Polling was all pointing to 400-440 seats for REM. IIRC the LR figure is about in line with polling, the FN seem to have hit the higher range of what they were expected to get, but PS and LFI have quite largely outperformed expectations.
That points perhaps to a worry among some of Macron's more left supporters about any drift rightwards - and a last minute swingback to both PS and LFI. LFI can take this as a decent result, while for PS it remains a catastrophe of course.
Still, indicates that people generally do not like landslides and will vote to prevent them.
355/577 gives a majority of 133 - a landslide in any terms
Elabe projection is 395-425.
Yes definitely, what I meant was that there seems to have been a last minute swingback to try and stop such a landslide - but clearly not at a significant enough level to halt the landslide. But it's a bog standard landslide rather than the mega-landslide we were expecting.
If the Elabe projection turns out to be accurate then that is more in line with the 1st round projections.
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
That is actually a relatively bad result for Macron. Polling was all pointing to 400-440 seats for REM. IIRC the LR figure is about in line with polling, the FN seem to have hit the higher range of what they were expected to get, but PS and LFI have quite largely outperformed expectations.
That points perhaps to a worry among some of Macron's more left supporters about any drift rightwards - and a last minute swingback to both PS and LFI. LFI can take this as a decent result, while for PS it remains a catastrophe of course.
Still, indicates that people generally do not like landslides and will vote to prevent them.
It does suggest that the biggest danger for Macron if he underperforms may come from neither LR or the FN or PS but Melenchon and the LFI
Especially as Melenchon has also won his seat in parliament, and will really be the only other party to come out of this election having had a good night.
Yes a Melenchon v Macron runoff in 2022 would be interesting
As I said a few days ago Ed Davey Leader and Jo Swinson Deputy Leader - as soon as possible because the Liberal Democrats need to be able to effectively express their views in this current very unstable time.
Oh no not Ed Davey >:
Better than Vince I suppose - but the party has to reach beyond Southwest London I think !
Check out the wholesale hollowing out job Ruth Davidson has done on the Lib Dem Highland vote.
A stark and very real warning of what a Corbyn premiership would present. The literal theft of somebody's property because they happen to use it in a way that is perceived to be distasteful - ie - making profit from it, or keeping it vacant, or for whatever reason.
Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.
We are living in dangerous times.
From YouGov today:
Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?
% ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23 Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24
So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
I think this is a policy that sounds terrible to anyone who hasn't wandered around the richer bits of London lately. It is getting like a ghost town there.
Regent's Park is the worst. There's giant terrace upon giant terrace in and around Park Rd, NW1, with no-one in there at all. You can look inside the houses and it's obvious that not a speck of dust has been displaced for months. I don't see why some of these places couldn't be used on a temporary basis, in an emergency. If well managed, it would work.
I used to live in Park Square East. The house to our left was permanently used, as the one to the right. Indeed, I think I knew every resident of my little bit of Regent's Park (including the late Bryan Gould). None of the houses was left empty - except when there was building work and then it was a total disaster, as you needed approval at every step of the way from English Heritage and the Crown Estates.
Thankfully Bryan Gould is still with us, albeit over in New Zealand.
That sounds like a Tommy Cooper....They always say start at the bottom if you want to learn something. But suppose you want to learn to swim?
As I said a few days ago Ed Davey Leader and Jo Swinson Deputy Leader - as soon as possible because the Liberal Democrats need to be able to effectively express their views in this current very unstable time.
Oh no not Ed Davey >:
Better than Vince I suppose - but the party has to reach beyond Southwest London I think !
Check out the wholesale hollowing out job Ruth Davidson has done on the Lib Dem Highland vote.
And Cameron in the southwest....
I think at the next election Tories should really target N.Ireland seats, perhaps they cab do to the DUP what they did to the libdems.
Seriously, Cable should be leader, you need someone with a high profile right now.
People on Twitter have been complaining that the BBC haven't covered a protest outside Downing Street. Do they really think that it is newsworthy? It happens all the bloody time.
It is a protest organised and peopled by the Socialist Workers Party against a Tory government. It is simply not newsworthy.
As I said a few days ago Ed Davey Leader and Jo Swinson Deputy Leader - as soon as possible because the Liberal Democrats need to be able to effectively express their views in this current very unstable time.
Oh no not Ed Davey >:
Better than Vince I suppose - but the party has to reach beyond Southwest London I think !
Check out the wholesale hollowing out job Ruth Davidson has done on the Lib Dem Highland vote.
Has she? The LibDems have lost roughly the same amount of support nationwide, but have kept half their Highland and island seats.
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
That is actually a relatively bad result for Macron. Polling was all pointing to 400-440 seats for REM. IIRC the LR figure is about in line with polling, the FN seem to have hit the higher range of what they were expected to get, but PS and LFI have quite largely outperformed expectations.
That points perhaps to a worry among some of Macron's more left supporters about any drift rightwards - and a last minute swingback to both PS and LFI. LFI can take this as a decent result, while for PS it remains a catastrophe of course.
Still, indicates that people generally do not like landslides and will vote to prevent them.
355/577 gives a majority of 133 - a landslide in any terms
Elabe projection is 395-425.
Yes definitely, what I meant was that there seems to have been a last minute swingback to try and stop such a landslide - but clearly not at a significant enough level to halt the landslide. But it's a bog standard landslide rather than the mega-landslide we were expecting.
If the Elabe projection turns out to be accurate then that is more in line with the 1st round projections.
Yes, but a "record-high abstention rate of around 56 percent..." A mile wide and an inch deep, perhaps ?
As recently was the case with our own dear Mrs May, the jury is still out.
After May steps down or is pushed out the Tory's need to skip a generation; they need someone who the next generation can relate to, and I think the obvious candidate is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Just look at how well he performs on Have I Got News for You, and even Mairh Black of the SNP has spoken and written warmly of him.
I like to put my money where my mouth is, so what odds can I get for a £20 wager?
evens for a laugh
Even for a laugh, no to Jacob Rees-Mogg, the latter day Mervyn Griffith-Jones.
The idea that JRM can connect with the millennial youth is the funniest thing I have read on PB for many a month. That said, the uber leftie Vicky Cohen does fancy him, and told him so on HIGNFY.
Have there actually been problems rehousing them? The government have said that the deadline is three weeks, but I would assume the majority would be rehoused quicker than that.
May's issue is not that she is dull, but that she is incompetent. Conservative leaders have never sold themselves as lovable or exciting figures. They have, however, sold themselves as competent figures, and when that falls apart the sh*t really does hit the fan for the party. This is why Hammond may not be such a bad choice - he is dull, but may well be far more competent than May was. I believe May's deficiencies led an increasing number of voters to take a second look at Jeremy Corbyn and Corbyn took advantage of that opportunity.
Disagree. The Tories now have full ownership of Brexit, and there's not a single sensible commentator who says this won't result in a noticeable economic hit. So the Tories' reputation for dull-but-pragmatic competence has been sacrificed on the alter of ideology. Their only option now is to counter the Corbyn phenomenon with a rock star of their own. Dreary bank managers won't cut it.
What's worse, sacrificed on the altar of someone else's ideology!
I disagree that a dreary leader can't win an election. The Tories are still seen as the party of economic competence. Brexit is throwing a spanner in that, but Hammond could neutralise the political damage to some extent by inviting Starmer into the Brexit depeartment. If Labour says no, a lot of people will be unimpressed. Hammond can neutralise Labour's appeal further by increasing investment to stimulate the economy and emphasising opportunity as a Tory creed.
After May steps down or is pushed out the Tory's need to skip a generation; they need someone who the next generation can relate to, and I think the obvious candidate is Jacob Rees-Mogg. Just look at how well he performs on Have I Got News for You, and even Mairh Black of the SNP has spoken and written warmly of him.
I like to put my money where my mouth is, so what odds can I get for a £20 wager?
evens for a laugh
Even for a laugh, no to Jacob Rees-Mogg, the latter day Mervyn Griffith-Jones.
The idea that JRM can connect with the millennial youth is the funniest thing I have read on PB for many a month. That said, the uber leftie Vicky Cohen does fancy him, and told him so on HIGNFY.
Boris should be anointed leader, and he should stand up and say the following: 'Look, the two-year timeline was ridiculous so we're asking our EU friends for an indefinite extension. If, after that, we haven't got a deal that pleases everyone, we'll have another referendum whose options are Dave's Deal or WTO'. If they did that the Tories would win the next GE with a landslide.
I think offering another referendum would be too dangerous. If it's "Accept the terms / don't accept the terms", the public will probably vote against ANY terms. That's what the public are like. If the referendum is "Choose between these 2 or 3 Brexit options" you're asking non-experts to make a choice they're not equipped to make. Turn out would probably be low and not give a mandate. I think the chance of there being another referendum is virtually nil, unless there's a political consensus that the country has changed its mind.
But assuming that Brexit goes ahead, going in to the next election as the party of Brexit will never give the Tories a good result.
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
That is actually a relatively bad result for Macron. Polling was all pointing to 400-440 seats for REM. IIRC the LR figure is about in line with polling, the FN seem to have hit the higher range of what they were expected to get, but PS and LFI have quite largely outperformed expectations.
That points perhaps to a worry among some of Macron's more left supporters about any drift rightwards - and a last minute swingback to both PS and LFI. LFI can take this as a decent result, while for PS it remains a catastrophe of course.
Still, indicates that people generally do not like landslides and will vote to prevent them.
It does suggest that the biggest danger for Macron if he underperforms may come from neither LR or the FN or PS but Melenchon and the LFI
Especially as Melenchon has also won his seat in parliament, and will really be the only other party to come out of this election having had a good night.
Yes a Melenchon v Macron runoff in 2022 would be interesting
If she stands, le Pen is a shoo-in for the run-off.
A clear majority for Macron in the legislature to match his clear victory in the presidential election, so he has the mandate, he now needs to deliver
That is actually a relatively bad result for Macron. Polling was all pointing to 400-440 seats for REM. IIRC the LR figure is about in line with polling, the FN seem to have hit the higher range of what they were expected to get, but PS and LFI have quite largely outperformed expectations.
That points perhaps to a worry among some of Macron's more left supporters about any drift rightwards - and a last minute swingback to both PS and LFI. LFI can take this as a decent result, while for PS it remains a catastrophe of course.
Still, indicates that people generally do not like landslides and will vote to prevent them.
It does suggest that the biggest danger for Macron if he underperforms may come from neither LR or the FN or PS but Melenchon and the LFI
Especially as Melenchon has also won his seat in parliament, and will really be the only other party to come out of this election having had a good night.
Yes a Melenchon v Macron runoff in 2022 would be interesting
If she stands, le Pen is a shoo-in for the run-off.
Melenchon was under 2% behind her and less than1% behind Fillon in round 1. His party also did better than FN in the legislative elections tonight. The global trend also seems to be shifting from rightwing populism, Brexit, Trump and Le Pen, to leftwing populism, Corbyn, Sanders and Melenchon
May's issue is not that she is dull, but that she is incompetent. Conservative leaders have never sold themselves as lovable or exciting figures. They have, however, sold themselves as competent figures, and when that falls apart the sh*t really does hit the fan for the party. This is why Hammond may not be such a bad choice - he is dull, but may well be far more competent than May was. I believe May's deficiencies led an increasing number of voters to take a second look at Jeremy Corbyn and Corbyn took advantage of that opportunity.
Disagree. The Tories now have full ownership of Brexit, and there's not a single sensible commentator who says this won't result in a noticeable economic hit. So the Tories' reputation for dull-but-pragmatic competence has been sacrificed on the alter of ideology. Their only option now is to counter the Corbyn phenomenon with a rock star of their own. Dreary bank managers won't cut it.
But if you want the crackpot brand wouldn't you go for the real deal, ie Corbyn, rather than some wannabe May style? The Tories doing Venezuela is a bit like M&S deciding to go youth.
Boris should be anointed leader, and he should stand up and say the following: 'Look, the two-year timeline was ridiculous so we're asking our EU friends for an indefinite extension. If, after that, we haven't got a deal that pleases everyone, we'll have another referendum whose options are Dave's Deal or WTO'. If they did that the Tories would win the next GE with a landslide.
I think offering another referendum would be too dangerous. If it's "Accept the terms / don't accept the terms", the public will probably vote against ANY terms. That's what the public are like. If the referendum is "Choose between these 2 or 3 Brexit options" you're asking non-experts to make a choice they're not equipped to make. Turn out would probably be low and not give a mandate. I think the chance of there being another referendum is virtually nil, unless there's a political consensus that the country has changed its mind.
But assuming that Brexit goes ahead, going in to the next election as the party of Brexit will never give the Tories a good result.
They weren't equipped to make the choice last year. Stupid Tories still let them though and are reaping the rewards. Shame we're all buggered with them
Well, dull competence was what made TMay seem the best option last time, and things have not exactly worked out for the Tories. On the same reasoning I'd much prefer Hammond to Boris, and therefore the former is probably not the best option, alas - the people want someone to emote at them incoherently, clearly, and high risk that he is, Boris can manage that better than others. Plus as a former Remainer the headbanger crowd who have presumably been behind the rumours for months that Hammond was sidelined and going to be sacked, would not stand for it.
Comments
Your arrogance is to think that the reasons you can come up with are the ones driving people to oppose the EU. I suppose from your little place in Southern France it might look that way but only if you are extremely blinkered. People want accountable, democratic Government that they can get rid of if they don't fulfil their promises. That is certainly not what they get from the EU.
Projection 577 seats :
LREM - 355
LR - 125
PS - 49
LFI 30
FN - 8 (LePen Wins)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jc4VxIWXX4w
Docu-drama telling the story of the Conservative Party's 2016 leadership campaign, from the day David Cameron resigned to the day Theresa May became Prime Minister. Based on exhaustive research and first-person testimonies, this dramatised narrative goes beyond the headlines to lay bare the politicking and positioning, betrayals and blunders of this extraordinary political time. The programme also features key interviews with people who were intimately involved in the campaigns of the main contenders.
Presumably the BBC is showing it tonight because it might be ancient history by Friday.
The last thing any Con MP is going to want is a GE - so I expect all leadership candidates will have to rule it out and say the Parliament will go 5 years.
Of course May ruled it out and then went back on her word - but this time the promise will be more believable because both the threat of defeat is far greater and no new PM is going to want to make the same mess that May made.
Hammond / Davis can both say that Brexit is the all encompassing challenge and they'll get the job done. But having done that they wouldn't want to carry on as PM on a long term basis (Davis can also cite his age) so would then step down so a new leader could be chosen to go forward to the next GE and thereafter.
This would be attractive to MPs as it would give them confidence of no GE whilst getting the most credible person for Brexit and giving time for the next long term leader to emerge.
Finally it also has the advantage of potentially timing Corbyn out - he'll be 73 in 2022 - yes he could easily still be Lab leader then but he'll be looking older and even more yesterday's man - and gives maximum chance of next GE being fought under a completely new landscape - new fresh Con leader and post Brexit.
Edit the Timothy spreadsheet issue applies to Johnson as well as Hammond surely?
Meanwhile, I see that Macron is projected to win a majority in the French Parliamentary Elections - good news.
The most notable thing the EU has done in terms of fire safety that has had a direct impact on me in the last couple of decades is to change all the colours on the fire extinguishers to make it far more difficult to identify them at a distance.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/education/2010/jan/15/teachers-voting-labour-conservatives
Why do you think it is that graduates with STEM degrees can get bursaries from the government to go on and do teaching qualifications? They are offered because we have a real shortage of teachers in those specific areas.
(Possibly because he's left less to chance.)
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/power-causes-brain-damage/528711/
That points perhaps to a worry among some of Macron's more left supporters about any drift rightwards - and a last minute swingback to both PS and LFI. LFI can take this as a decent result, while for PS it remains a catastrophe of course.
Still, indicates that people generally do not like landslides and will vote to prevent them.
The Corbyn phenomenon is an interesting one, but the rise in his ratings has occurred only recently. Thus, outside of a committed base among my generation, the question is how much of Corbyn's rise is to do with him being a charismatic, personable figure as it is to do with a sense among many that their discontent isn't be listened to and acknowledged by the Conservative Party? I feel that many voted for Corbyn not because they agree with the entire Corbyn/McDonnell vision but as a way to signal their sense of discontent with the current system.
Elabe projection is 395-425.
On seeing the British delegation they laughed.
Is this all they've got?
And they laughed some more.......
*Talkingmybook*
If the Elabe projection turns out to be accurate then that is more in line with the 1st round projections.
Better than Vince I suppose - but the party has to reach beyond Southwest London I think !
Check out the wholesale hollowing out job Ruth Davidson has done on the Lib Dem Highland vote.
I think at the next election Tories should really target N.Ireland seats, perhaps they cab do to the DUP what they did to the libdems.
Seriously, Cable should be leader, you need someone with a high profile right now.
How many millions of people live in London?
And we cannot re-house a few hundred?
Is this for real?
A mile wide and an inch deep, perhaps ?
As recently was the case with our own dear Mrs May, the jury is still out.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/nintchdbpict000328763453.jpg?strip=all&w=915&quality=100
I disagree that a dreary leader can't win an election. The Tories are still seen as the party of economic competence. Brexit is throwing a spanner in that, but Hammond could neutralise the political damage to some extent by inviting Starmer into the Brexit depeartment. If Labour says no, a lot of people will be unimpressed. Hammond can neutralise Labour's appeal further by increasing investment to stimulate the economy and emphasising opportunity as a Tory creed.
LREM 361 .. LR 126 .. PS 46 .. LFI 26 .. NF 8
But assuming that Brexit goes ahead, going in to the next election as the party of Brexit will never give the Tories a good result.
https://twitter.com/momentumtrumpt1/status/875973346818654209