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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Picking the nation’s leader. Why the Conservatives are running
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Picking the nation’s leader. Why the Conservatives are running out of options
We’ve been here before. For the second time in less than a year, the Conservatives are on the brink of replacing a leader between elections while in power. Yet right now they are in such a tizz, they aren’t considering some of the critical considerations that such a responsibility entails.
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He may not have held to "Big three" important offices of state but he has been around for donkey's ages (going all the way to John Major's government) and he clearly has enough experience to be PM.
It's between Hammond, Davis and Boris for me - But I think if you want to stop Corbyn your not going to be able to do it with a dull "manager" like Hammond.
Davis could do the job but won't be popular with the public so again probably wouldn't stop Corbyn.
Which really leaves only Boris - It is a risk but I can't see anyone else who could stop Corbyn's populist bandwagon.
If the conservatives can't govern, the only real option is another election.
Betway offering 4-7 on Theresa May going before Arsene Wenger. Managed to get all of £7 on.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/18/jeremy-corbyn-calls-supporters-occupy-empty-homes-help-victims/
I can see some flaws in that.
More importantly, I have two quid on him at 420 on betfair exchange. Come on Damo!
Even the thought of that gives me the heebie-jeebies.
Where will this end? Illegal evictions of private property owners to make way for more 'deserving' demographics? It's only a step away from seizing other assets.
We are living in dangerous times.
Abolish tuition fees. Either it passes and Labour nails on a large grateful client group of young people, and their parents, or it falls and we have another GE, with the Tories still bereft of any popular policies to sell.
A huge programme of retrofitting social housing, might have some appeal too. It could boost the construction trade, and the Tories could hardly oppose it.
Southern Rail nationalisation is another.
Either these pass then go to the country, or they fall, go to the country. Neither are beneficial to the Conservatives.
Seems crazy to me the Tories are bound to go into the next election with a new leader - who would also be PM. Would be suicide to allow Theresa to be defeated in the Commons and let Jeremy say OK lets have an election if they had no one to replace her.
But far from this being the end of Neo-Liberalism, I think it is its down, or at least rebirth.
The expression 'Neo-Liberalism' has been used as an insult by populists, in an attempt to keep us down, classical Liberals, or Libertarians, as those of us who understand the philosophy prefer to be called, is growing, and growing on a wide front, Macron's expected victory in France today is its best example yet.
I would highly recommend this video from the IEA about the their perception of the realignment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5OlkZ968xM
Jeremy Corbyn has called for luxury properties in Kensington that are owned but left empty to be requisitioned and provided as accommodation for Grenfell Tower residents who have been made homeless by the fire. Would you support or oppose such a move?
% ...........TOTAL Lab Con LD SNP UKIP
Strongly support 33 51 14 35 45 23
Tend to support .26 30 26 34 27 24
So 40% of Tories support Corbyn on this.
What do you do when he makes the first vote a confidence issue ?
And it you do allow him to pass legislation, you'd effectively be outsourcing the leadership of the Tories to Corbyn.
Utterly absurd - even before you begin to consider the executive powers the PM possesses which don't require commons votes.
And the message would also be "we don't have a leader any better than May".
Pitiful.
Amir !
Are any of the people displaced from Grenfell actually without accommodation?
The public don't want another bloody election, so they aren't going to moan too much about mandates for a year or two.
What's needed now is a period of competence.
And I have the strong impression that Johnson's ability to make decisions is no better developed than May's; it's just that he can screw things up with a more convincing display of insouciance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1923
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1924
My money is on an insult to democracy.
And Pakistan.
The politics either.
The Conservatives did not have the ability to form a government then; right now they could probably do so without any formal agreement with the DUP.
The problem the Tories have, when the next GE comes, is that they are going to lose a good chunk of their UKIP vote. They could drop from 42% share to say 36% -nothing to do with Hammond or Corbyn but the result of a Brexit that puts jobs ahead of immigration. If Corbyn is still on 40% and the rightwing vote is split then the result, according to Baxter, could be Labour most seats regardless of who the Tory leader is.
Keep May for two years for Brexit - There might not be a Conservative Party left when she's finished.
Change May for Hammond - He might be able to pull off Brexit but the public will find him dull, boring and uninspiring. Next to Corbyn he'll fade into the background. And what if he turns out to be as useless as May?
Change May for Boris - ANYTHING could happen. He might be a great success. He might be a terrible disaster.
Put Corbyn in to govern as a minority - He might turn out to be even more popular and successful in office than he is in Opposition.
These are dark times for #TeamBlue
You're as mad as Corbyn.
Some questions:-
-What's "luxury"? Who defines it? What's any appeal process?
-What's "empty"?
-What if it were left unused for a month because the owner was thinking of redecorating or refurbishing?
-Or three or six months?
-What if the owner works abroad on a monthly contract and genuinely doesn't know when they will be back and wants a secure base for when that happens?
- Is compensation to be paid and if so how much and for how long?
- If not what else can the Govt seize and under what circumstances?
- How does the owner get their property back and when?
-What if it's mortgaged and the lender decides to call the loan in because their security is now in doubt?
- What if the owner is foreign and you start an international tit for tat? Lots of Chinese owned flats in London for example so that's going to end well isn't it? Why should I suffer a trade embargo to goods I export to China from far off Wales forcing me to lay people off in the Valleys because people are grandstanding in London?
This was a dreadful tragedy. Huge efforts must be made to allieviate the suffering of those involved in a humane and practical fashion asap, no question. All aspects of this need to see full daylight in full public scrutiny for sure. However, we should also not all be leaping to conclusions before the technical enquiry as to the cause(s) has even really started. A bit less emoting wildly and a bit more thinking through the huge consequences of shoot from the hip responses might help.
I don't think it's a good time to change a leader either - straight after a GE is a risky strategy. Better to wait at least a year, probably even better to be wait until after Brexit then wield the knife.
Brexit's changed everything...
Far too warm. Roll on winter.
I agree that Hammond is the best bet if a leader is needed in the short term.
Mr. Gate, sounds good. Would give non-crazy lefties something to vote for and might actually force the Conservatives to up their game. But I'll believe it when I see it. The PLP has decided to kneel before the Friend of Hamas (with some honourable exceptions).
http://survation.com/labour-party-now-polling-5-ahead-conservatives-public-say-theresa-may-resign-49-38/
Of course a Corbyn McDonnell government would be a disaster for the country but ironically the quickest way to revive the Tories, we would be asking the IMF for a bailout in a year or two, the EU would make mincemeat of Corbyn and Starmer and the unions would be running the country
She should not be let anywhere near another vote, but the best thing to do right now is keep her in a caretaker role for the time being. Anything else leads to massive issues of legitimacy, another GE and Corbyn in number 10 by the end of the year.
Also worth mentioning - the narrative is awful for the Tories now. But will it always remain so, all the way up to the next election? People need to stop being so ridiculously hasty.
That's the tip of the iceberg. Imagine him as PM and McDonnell as chancellor. The damage they would do would sink this country.
Baxtering that still leads to Labour taking most seats but dependent on the SNP to get a majority.
I don't see the Tories winning many seats back from the LibDems, if any. I suspect that Richmond Park will be a LibDem gain next time when the 5,773 Labour voters are reminded that the Tories won by 45 votes. I think the LibDems in RP slipped up on the Labour squeeze this time and took their vote for granted. They won't next time.
The French have elected probably the free market government in the world. While we can't decide between the illiberal Mrs May or the Marxist Mr Corbyn.
No it would not. We elect MPs not PMs. Anyone who can command a majority in Parliament is fit and suitable to be a PM as that is ultimately the decision of the MPs not the public.
But given the handling of this matter by the local council who would be surprised if there some surviving stragglers sleeping in doorways or asked to move back to Grenfell Tower and clear up the mess with a government supplied toothbrush or picked up for vagrancy in tube stations?
I don't think, in this day and age, you could be PM of the country from the backbenches or the Lords for that matter.
The minimum to be PM, I would say, is to be a Cabinet minister though I don't think it necessarily has to come from the "big three" offices of State anymore...
A foreign investor looking to set up shop may well look at Britian and think 'no, it's too big a risk'. Just look at the rhetoric on this site. In a globalised economy, we need every advantage available to us, and yet people are willing to shrug their shoulders and offer up Corbyn as the saviour of the nation.
We've come full circle since the 70s.
He also answers questions without obfuscation which on the Tory side makes him unique.