Just watched another interview on Sky with a volunteer who says that no one is liasing with the families and she and another volunteer are cooking food for the families relocated to hotels. The obvious question is if they are in hotel accommodation are they not being feed by the hotel but the sky hosts doesn't even think of asking the question.
Listened to an interview with a minister re TM meeting yesterday where she became very tearful and both she and a resident held hands in sadness for 20 minutes. The problem for TM is that she feels the pain every bit as much as others but finds it difficult to show empathy
Perhaps the hotel has been book on a room only basis ?
Maybe Jack but the question should have been asked
Corbyn is not what he seems. His mealy-mouthed claims on Trident ring hollow. He's a far left fool, backed up by a Marxist Shadow Chancellor.
The point though is that for many people that's irrelevant. I look at my own circumstances and I have basically stood still since 2010 - the only saving grace has been we have paid off the mortgage - yet I see copious amounts of wealth in the country and ask myself why more of it can't move down through the economic strata.
Yes, there are lots of people in work but we all know people are cheap compared to proper investment in technology and improvements in business processes.
We then have Conservatives like May pretending to be sympathetic to the JAMMS or the squeezed middle or whatever it's being called this week but the standard Conservative response is just tax cuts.
Presumably you have already returned to the Treasury all the gains you have made from the cuts in personal income tax allowances since 2010.
Living costs are higher. My gas and electricity have increased noticeably recently, for example.
https://twitter.com/peston/status/876197240913711104 The promise of Brexit was steeped in ideology from the very beginning, a fairy tale based on dark chauvinism. The Spanish Armada, Napoleon, Hitler and now the Polish plumbers who allegedly push down wages -- when in reality they ensured that, after decades of lukewarmly dripping showers, the country's bathrooms gradually returned to functionality. Brexit was never a particularly good idea. Now, following the most recent election, Brexit is defunct. That, at least, is what a member of Theresa May's cabinet intimated last weekend. "In practical terms, Brexit is dead," an unnamed minister told the Financial Times.
Germans have an obsession with the English and bad bathrooms, as the Americans do with us and bad teeth.
I'm baffled as to where they come from.
I don't think we need take any lectures on 'dark chauvinism' from them.
I'm not sure whether the right to be here or otherwise of the residents matters but It'll be a big problem for those who have illegally sub-let. The compensation which should go to those in the fire is likely instead to go to the illegal landlords. Down the line this'll cause major problems. Someone posted ads on here from Rightmove for what must have been illegal sub-lets.
Corbyn isn't seeing off PMs. They're ruining themselves by failing to judge or appeal to the public mood sufficiently.
Cameron could've easily won the referendum had he not been so contemptuous towards the basket of deplorables (sorry, Little Englanders). May could've easily won the election by a landslide had she not decided that three weeks before polling days was the perfect time to scare the Conservative core vote shitless with an untested policy for the demented.
Corbyn has improved, and that's something that should concern everyone who isn't far left. But the departure of Cameron, and future departure of May, is down to their failings, not Corbyn's excellence.
Indeed - although there's also the Brexit effect. This isn't that people were deliberately voting for Corbyn as an anti-Brexit vote, but that the economic uncertainty and the claims made in the campaign meant Corbyn's 'free stuff' manifesto were much harder to brush off. The Tories didn't give concrete numbers in their own, I'd have thought because until we know the basic shape of a Brexit deal, they'd essentially be meaningless anyway - but it undermined one of the key attacks that worked in 2015 - asking Labour to properly explain their numbers and jumping on any inconsistency as evidence of fiscal incontinence. It's more difficult to ridicule claims you can raise vast sums in tax without hurting any normal people if half your cabinet went around Britain in a bus with a blatant lie about the country's finances written on it.
Secondly, the tone May took over Brexit - totally illiberal and opaque made even those who aren't angling to overturn the result queasy and feel they had to vote Labour. Speaking to a friend just before the election summed it up. Approaching 30, with a well paid job, well aware that the Labour manifesto did not bear close scrutiny, in other words, exactly the kind of person who should be susceptible to the Tory message - we'll get you a first home etc. But simply felt he had to vote Labour because there was no way he was going to endorse the way May had behaved and thought taking the chance was the better option. Corbyn's talk on Brexit might be utter guff, but as neither side can explain how it's going to work he gets away with it.
Brexit has turned the country into a mistrustful, divided and volatile one, as there's no way of satisfying different groups without another thinking their future's being ruined - and as such it has made Prime Minister Corbyn a possibility - because a lot of people who normally would recoil at the hard left stuff see it as no less absurd than what they'd vote for to repudiate it.
It really puts into perspective what an achievement the 2010 Con-LD coalition deal was, when the whole thing was signed and sealed in 5 days, and after 10 days we are still none the wiser as to what's really in the Con-DUP supply & confidence deal, or whether it's really on.
Indeed.
Much credit goes to the Cameron and Clegg and their teams who worked as partners in a crisis situation and who were prepared to compromise in the national interest.
Compare and contrast .... Hhhhmm ....
Some wag has said that the Tories are having grave doubts about one part of the DUP manifesto demands - All Old Testament and fortnightly bin collections .....
Apparently the Conservatives can't get past the rubbish ....
It might just be May's style of telling no-one anything until she has sorted and fixed everything, which is clearly what she'd have tried to do had she won her landslide, but we simply don't know.
Yes, May still has the keys to Downing Street in her handbag. But she has trashed her own reputation. Tossed away a parliamentary majority. Torn up her manifesto. Lost her closest aides. Infuriated her party.
Assisted her enemies, both internal and external. Exacerbated divisions in Britain. And annoyed much of Europe.
Our nation begins all-important Brexit talks tomorrow with a badly wounded leader hastily cobbling together a fresh team and stance. ‘We’re not surprised by seeing her weakness,’ one European diplomat told me. ‘We knew she was weak.’
Corbyn has improved, and that's something that should concern everyone who isn't far left. But the departure of Cameron, and future departure of May, is down to their failings, not Corbyn's excellence.
Indeed - although there's also the Brexit effect. This isn't that people were deliberately voting for Corbyn as an anti-Brexit vote, but that the economic uncertainty and the claims made in the campaign meant Corbyn's 'free stuff' manifesto were much harder to brush off. The Tories didn't give concrete numbers in their own, I'd have thought because until we know the basic shape of a Brexit deal, they'd essentially be meaningless anyway - but it undermined one of the key attacks that worked in 2015 - asking Labour to properly explain their numbers and jumping on any inconsistency as evidence of fiscal incontinence. It's more difficult to ridicule claims you can raise vast sums in tax without hurting any normal people if half your cabinet went around Britain in a bus with a blatant lie about the country's finances written on it.
Secondly, the tone May took over Brexit - totally illiberal and opaque made even those who aren't angling to overturn the result queasy and feel they had to vote Labour. Speaking to a friend just before the election summed it up. Approaching 30, with a well paid job, well aware that the Labour manifesto did not bear close scrutiny, in other words, exactly the kind of person who should be susceptible to the Tory message - we'll get you a first home etc. But simply felt he had to vote Labour because there was no way he was going to endorse the way May had behaved and thought taking the chance was the better option. Corbyn's talk on Brexit might be utter guff, but as neither side can explain how it's going to work he gets away with it.
Brexit has turned the country into a mistrustful, divided and volatile one, as there's no way of satisfying different groups without another thinking their future's being ruined - and as such it has made Prime Minister Corbyn a possibility - because a lot of people who normally would recoil at the hard left stuff see it as no less absurd than what they'd vote for to repudiate it.
The biggest Brexit effect is that the Tories ditched their own long-term economic strategy the minute the Leave vote was declared. This made it impossible for them to a) cost their own manifesto, and b) take the fight to Corbyn on economic credibility.
It also completely undermined their justification for all the nasty things we have endured since 2010, leading inexorably to the current end of the age of austerity.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
I have no doubt that Brexit is under serious threat as public opinion turns against it.
I have been through various attitudes to Brexit but my wife and I were looking back with nostalgia to Cameron's pre referendum days and with the extraordinary political earthquakes having taken place over the last few weeks the mood of the nation does seem to have changed.
I admit to again changing my views due to very real concerns about the economic damage, reputational damage, and coherence in society that we are now facing
I'm not sure whether the right to be here or otherwise of the residents matters but It'll be a big problem for those who have illegally sub-let. The compensation which should go to those in the fire is likely instead to go to the illegal landlords. Down the line this'll cause major problems. Someone posted ads on here from Rightmove for what must have been illegal sub-lets.
Some of the flats are privately owned, so it would not be illegal to sub-let those.
A lot of social tenancy agreements allow people to take in lodgers.
What I actually mean is that to be PM requires a a very wide skill set. Most people would quickly find themselves hopelessly out of their depth. Any PM will be severely tested sooner or later, and his or her shortcomings brutally exposed. This is no better illustrated than in the case of Mrs May. Cameron and Blair each had a broadly based skill set and enjoyed success over a long period. Corbyn is good at empathy and good at campaigning but I cannot so far see that their is much else which stands out.
Just watched another interview on Sky with a volunteer who says that no one is liasing with the families and she and another volunteer are cooking food for the families relocated to hotels. The obvious question is if they are in hotel accommodation are they not being feed by the hotel but the sky hosts doesn't even think of asking the question.
Listened to an interview with a minister re TM meeting yesterday where she became very tearful and both she and a resident held hands in sadness for 20 minutes. The problem for TM is that she feels the pain every bit as much as others but finds it difficult to show empathy
Perhaps the hotel has been book on a room only basis ?
Maybe Jack but the question should have been asked
Well they wont be in the Ritz, they will be in the sort of"hotels" without restaurants, of which there are many. They will probably prohibit cooking in rooms? Just checked and only 10% of hotels listed on booking.com have a restaurant
Did they test "Do you know what Customs Union means?" before asking if we should leave it?
The options defining what a Customs Union is are very leading and, in my opinion, incorrect.
For example, 37% have picked the option 'paying a fee to access this customs union" to enable 'free trade' with the EU. This is then added to the 22% who don't want to Leave the EU at all to make up the 69%, once don't knows are removed.
Firstly, that's not what a customs union is - you can have free trade without it, hence all the EFTA countries - and, secondly, it's asking for access, not full membership of it, and fails to make clear this would inhibit any ability of the UK to make its own trade deals.
Interesting how it's only Remainer bitter-enders sharing this.
Agree with you on the dodginess of merging options in pie charts. I don't think the question is leading but it does oversimplify a complex issue. For example free trade isn't absolute as both the question and your critique of it imply. Customs unions allow for freer trade than you would otherwise have. It does say that a customs union would prevent the UK from negotiating its own trade deals (which isn't strictly the case - it limits what those deals can agree).
The remarkable figure though is that 35% of the population think no agreed deal with the EU would be GOOD for Britain.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
Corbyn's ' a workers brexit not a bankers brexit' is a much more reassuring slogan than mays 'brexit means brexit' or even ' red, white and blue brexit' nonsense.
May will definitely go but on a practical basis even if she resigned as Tory leader tomorrow she would still have to stay PM for months while the resultant Tory leadership race is decided by the MPs and then the membership. As Iain Dale has also just said on Marr if she is ousted as PM without resigning in an orderly manner that increases the likelihood of another general election in a few months which the Tories would lose and Jeremy Corbyn would become PM
Corbyn is not what he seems. His mealy-mouthed claims on Trident ring hollow. He's a far left fool, backed up by a Marxist Shadow Chancellor.
The point though is that for many people that's irrelevant. I look at my own circumstances and I have basically stood still since 2010 - the only saving grace has been we have paid off the mortgage - yet I see copious amounts of wealth in the country and ask myself why more of it can't move down through the economic strata.
Yes, there are lots of people in work but we all know people are cheap compared to proper investment in technology and improvements in business processes.
We then have Conservatives like May pretending to be sympathetic to the JAMMS or the squeezed middle or whatever it's being called this week but the standard Conservative response is just tax cuts.
I'm considerably better off than I was in 2010 and I see plenty of money being spent but things don't feel right.
That's partly because I know the economic fundamentals are shite.
There's too much concentration on the number of people in work and too little on business investment, productivity and wages.
The lack of good pay rises is a big driver of dissatisfaction with the establishment.
Mr. Meeks, Mr. Royale's indicated the merging of answers in the pie charts which does sound misleading. Don't you agree?
Mr. NorthWales, you'll never make Lord High Chancellor with an attitude like that.
More seriously, you may be right. But that then poses a significant problem for the country.
The response to the question about a confirmatory referendum stands out for me. If this poll is right, public opinion is shifting to a more Brexit-sceptic position.
May will definitely go but on a practical basis even if she resigned as Tory leader tomorrow she would still have to stay PM for months while the resultant Tory leadership race is decided by the MPs and then the membership. As Iain Dale has also just said on Marr if she is ousted as PM without resigning in an orderly manner that increases the likelihood of another general election in a few months which the Tories would lose and Jeremy Corbyn would become PM
Theresa May became Tory leader in about a fortnight. It simply is not true that a leadership election need take months or even one month.
Mark Pack's survey (not poll) of LD members (which was very close last time, however):
"Jo Swinson is the runaway favourite
When asked to rate the 11 Liberal Democrat MPs other than Tim Farron in order of preference for party leader, 57% gave Jo Swinson their first preference. No other candidate got even as high as 15% of first preferences. On that showing, she would win in the first round in any contest. Even if her vote dipped below 50% in an actual contest, she draws second preferences widely from the supporters of all other MPs, and would still win with ease based on this survey. Because of her clear lead over all other candidates combined, it does not matter what combination of other candidates there really are when it comes to the actual election. She would win easily whatever the actual line up is.
If Jo Swinson doesn't stand...
Lamb slightly ahead of Cable - If Jo Swinson wins clearly whatever the combination of candidates, it's a very different picture if she doesn't stand. Rerunning the count with her votes transferred over to their second preferences gives a very close looking race with Norman Lamb fractionally ahead of Vince Cable with 30% to his 29%. Edward Davey is on 18% and the other MPs share the rest of the support, with Layla Moran the best of the rest on 8%. If all the other candidates are eliminated and votes transferred to Norman Lamb or Vince Cable, Norman Lamb extends his lead, just, to a 52% - 48% margin over Vince Cable. Note: It is possible these figures under-estimate Norman Lamb's actual support compared with Vince Cable as the responses slightly over-represent London members, where Vince Cable is stronger, and also the proportion recalling that they voted for Norman Lamb rather than Tim Farron in 2015 is on the low side (though that may be the usual effect of people's memories changing or fading to the detriment of the non-winner when recalling how they voted). The first factor, however, is, at most, not large and the second is unknown. Cable ahead of Davey - If Norman Lamb also does not stand, then Vince Cable wins out over Edward Davey 57%-43%."
No chance for Tom Brake then?
Tom Brake ? The chap you said was toast in C and W ?
What I actually mean is that to be PM requires a a very wide skill set. Most people would quickly find themselves hopelessly out of their depth. Any PM will be severely tested sooner or later, and his or her shortcomings brutally exposed. This is no better illustrated than in the case of Mrs May. Cameron and Blair each had a broadly based skill set and enjoyed success over a long period. Corbyn is good at empathy and good at campaigning but I cannot so far see that their is much else which stands out.
His ability to retain an essential utopianism after six decades ?
Possibly not an ideal quality for a prime minister.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
So what,public opinion probably swung away from us staying in the common market/EU when we joined but we had to wait 40 years for our vote to be tested.
We are going through a testing time at the moment so I expect people feel nervious.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
It isn't under threat.
The lobbying effort has restarted again, full on again, at Mach 2, because of the GE2017 results, and the Remainers smell blood.
Still more likely than not. The voters may no longer want it by the time the negotiations are done but the Tory membership do, and so do the Labour leadership.
The Labour leadership are doing what they believe is the correct thing to do after the referendum but none of the Labour leadership nor 95% of the parliamentary pary voted for it.
For once Roger I believe it is becoming increasingly unlikely. Indeed it has the potential of tearing both conservatives and labour apart. The conservatives problems are well known but Corbyn's attempt to free himself of the EU so he can nationalize will not be supported by many in his party.
I agree which is why it is so unusual to hold a referendum of such importance requiring a simple majority. It was an insane decision by Cameron and a good argument for not choosing a PM 'because he thinks he'll be rather good at it'.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
Yes, you can feel a second referendum coming.
There is a mix of betting opportunities, if with a question of exactly what type of referendum would qualify under a 'yes' bet in each case:
"Next Country to hold an EU In/Out Referendum" - UK 6.6 @ BFEx "EU Referendum before 2020" - Yes 3.2 @ BFEx "EU In/Out Referendum before 2019" - Yes 2.72 (a poor bet given no. 2!)
I also notice there is 1/6 on BFSB (1.14 on BFEx) for No Welsh Indy Referendum before 2020. OK, it's three years away, but a surefire 16% profit, I'd have thought!
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
I ordered my "Strong and Stable" mug from the Conservatives a week ago and it still hasn't turned up. Allegedly it was sent out 4 days ago by first class postage but this seems to be a load of bollocks as it should be here by now.
There's a joke there but I can't quite work out what it is.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
It isn't under threat.
The lobbying effort has restarted again, full on again, at Mach 2, because of the GE2017 results, and the Remainers smell blood.
I think the many thousands of employees think it is and are very worried
There is zero chance of a 2nd referendum, no PM will risk political suicide. Cameron called a referendum, May called a snap election - look how that worked out.
So many people conflating what they want to happen with reality.
I think there is more than a 50% chance that there will be a war about Europe in the Tory party over the next few months. I can't see the hard Brexiteers agreeing to a more relaxed approach, with the option of continued EU customs area membership still being considered. Liam Fox would probably resign and Theresa May would face a leadership contest.
If i were putting money on the next Tory leader, i would back Andrea Leadsom. She was a prominent Brexit supporter, but i can't recall her saying much on Brexit recently. She might be trying to play a more neutral conciliatory role and therefore appeal to more Tories.
Still more likely than not. The voters may no longer want it by the time the negotiations are done but the Tory membership do, and so do the Labour leadership.
The Labour leadership are doing what they believe is the correct thing to do after the referendum but none of the Labour leadership nor 95% of the parliamentary pary voted for it.
For once Roger I believe it is becoming increasingly unlikely. Indeed it has the potential of tearing both conservatives and labour apart. The conservatives problems are well known but Corbyn's attempt to free himself of the EU so he can nationalize will not be supported by many in his party.
I agree which is why it is so unusual to hold a referendum of such importance requiring a simple majority. It was an insane decision by Cameron and a good argument for not choosing a PM 'because he thinks he'll be rather good at it'.
The quality of PMs is not likely to be improving any time soon. Look at the likely list of next PMs (there may be at least three in the next six years):
May (until Wednesday week) Boris Corbyn McDonnell Hammond Rebecca whats-her-name
May will definitely go but on a practical basis even if she resigned as Tory leader tomorrow she would still have to stay PM for months while the resultant Tory leadership race is decided by the MPs and then the membership. As Iain Dale has also just said on Marr if she is ousted as PM without resigning in an orderly manner that increases the likelihood of another general election in a few months which the Tories would lose and Jeremy Corbyn would become PM
Theresa May became Tory leader in about a fortnight. It simply is not true that a leadership election need take months or even one month.
It does if the membership are involved as they almost certainly will have to be this time. In 2001 and 2005 IDS and Clarke and Cameron and Davis spent months doing hustings with party members before the result was announced
The Tories seem (on the face of this article) to be ready to hit the self destruct button. A leadership contest now makes a Corbyn premiership all the more likely.
Which is why it won't happen. Despite the feverish imaginings of the acolytes of the editor of a Russian owned freesheet.....
Only a case of when the Maybot has her batteries removed.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
Yes, you can feel a second referendum coming.
There is a mix of betting opportunities, if with a question of exactly what type of referendum would qualify under a 'yes' bet in each case:
"Next Country to hold an EU In/Out Referendum" - UK 6.6 @ BFEx "EU Referendum before 2020" - Yes 3.2 @ BFEx "EU In/Out Referendum before 2019" - Yes 2.72 (a poor bet given no. 2!)
I also notice there is 1/6 on BFSB (1.14 on BFEx) for No Welsh Indy Referendum before 2020. OK, it's three years away, but a surefire 16% profit, I'd have thought!
Keir Starmer has just ruled out a second EU referendum from the Labour perspective on Marr as it could not take place until we have left the EU. He also said he wanted to get the advantages of the single market without full membership of it
Indeed - although there's also the Brexit effect. This isn't that people were deliberately voting for Corbyn as an anti-Brexit vote, but that the economic uncertainty and the claims made in the campaign meant Corbyn's 'free stuff' manifesto were much harder to brush off. The Tories didn't give concrete numbers in their own, I'd have thought because until we know the basic shape of a Brexit deal, they'd essentially be meaningless anyway - but it undermined one of the key attacks that worked in 2015 - asking Labour to properly explain their numbers and jumping on any inconsistency as evidence of fiscal incontinence. It's more difficult to ridicule claims you can raise vast sums in tax without hurting any normal people if half your cabinet went around Britain in a bus with a blatant lie about the country's finances written on it.
Brexit has turned the country into a mistrustful, divided and volatile one, as there's no way of satisfying different groups without another thinking their future's being ruined - and as such it has made Prime Minister Corbyn a possibility - because a lot of people who normally would recoil at the hard left stuff see it as no less absurd than what they'd vote for to repudiate it.
The biggest Brexit effect is that the Tories ditched their own long-term economic strategy the minute the Leave vote was declared. This made it impossible for them to a) cost their own manifesto, and b) take the fight to Corbyn on economic credibility.
It also completely undermined their justification for all the nasty things we have endured since 2010, leading inexorably to the current end of the age of austerity.
Yes, that put my first point rather more succinctly.
The second effect, which is also non-negligible is that the way May went about Brexit - that conference speech, crush the saboteurs etc., no transparency, has pushed the kind of liberal centrist voters Cameron and Osborne believed were essential to Tory success, away. The assumption was Corbyn's politics would do this in reverse, but by failing to reassure those voters, May has entrenched the divisions of the referendum, resulting in the current impasse - except you've got harsh Brexit versus cuddly Brexit (neither of which are very coherent) rather than leave versus remain.
Nothing like the Tory party for kicking someone when they're down. If they got behind her and stopped plotting she would be much more able to deal with the current crises.
It takes a lot for me to sympathise with a brexiteer in trouble but when I see people trying to crucify her for not 'doing' sympathy properly I start feeling queasy. Remember they did the same to HRH when Diana died and a more excruciating example of tawdry mob rule I can't remember seeing.
Get the tumbrils out , plenty of Tories to fill them
Northern Ireland is a lovely temperature this weekend. On the downside, at this time of year it barely gets dark.
Things you don't need in Scotland: Limescale remover or anything to do with water softening Things you do need: Huge quantities of highest grade blackout lining for your curtains
Still more likely than not. The voters may no longer want it by the time the negotiations are done but the Tory membership do, and so do the Labour leadership.
The Labour leadership are doing what they believe is the correct thing to do after the referendum but none of the Labour leadership nor 95% of the parliamentary pary voted for it.
For once Roger I believe it is becoming increasingly unlikely. Indeed it has the potential of tearing both conservatives and labour apart. The conservatives problems are well known but Corbyn's attempt to free himself of the EU so he can nationalize will not be supported by many in his party.
I agree which is why it is so unusual to hold a referendum of such importance requiring a simple majority. It was an insane decision by Cameron and a good argument for not choosing a PM 'because he thinks he'll be rather good at it'.
The quality of PMs is not likely to be improving any time soon. Look at the likely list of next PMs (there may be at least three in the next six years):
May (until Wednesday week) Boris Corbyn McDonnell Hammond Rebecca whats-her-name
Did they test "Do you know what Customs Union means?" before asking if we should leave it?
The options defining what a Customs Union is are very leading and, in my opinion, incorrect.
For example, 37% have picked the option 'paying a fee to access this customs union" to enable 'free trade' with the EU. This is then added to the 22% who don't want to Leave the EU at all to make up the 69%, once don't knows are removed.
Firstly, that's not what a customs union is - you can have free trade without it, hence all the EFTA countries - and, secondly, it's asking for access, not full membership of it, and fails to make clear this would inhibit any ability of the UK to make its own trade deals.
Interesting how it's only Remainer bitter-enders sharing this.
Agree with you on the dodginess of merging options in pie charts. I don't think the question is leading but it does oversimplify a complex issue. For example free trade isn't absolute as both the question and your critique of it imply. Customs unions allow for freer trade than you would otherwise have. It does say that a customs union would prevent the UK from negotiating its own trade deals (which isn't strictly the case - it limits what those deals can agree).
The remarkable figure though is that 35% of the population think no agreed deal with the EU would be GOOD for Britain.
A fair post. I would read it as voters wanting a customs-free arrangement with the EU to maximise trade, which incidentally is something Theresa May is looking at, whilst also giving the UK the ability to set its own tariff arrangements and trade deals globally. But most people simply don't know how it works.
Free trade means both sides don't pay tariffs on goods within the scope of that agreement, but you still have to show you've complied with rules-of-origin checks at the borders between those countries, as EFTA states do. Customs union means there is no need for customs checks internally, except at the borders of that customs union as a whole, because you've already done them already; however, tariffs are set at a common level.
That means the EU commission negotiates as a whole in international trade deals, because the level of sovereign control a state would have over its own tariff and regulatory regime is so limited (non-existent) there'd be little to no point even if it wanted to.
If we're Leaving the EU to realise benefits and future opportunities, then quitting the customs union is probably the most obvious thing to do first, subject to a transition period.
And it's not just us either who wish to quit the customs union..
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
You are desperate for public opinion to change, and to hang your hat on any warped evidence that gives you credence for this.
Forgive me if I ignore the Remainer die-hards and take my lead from neutral observers.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
You are desperate for public opinion to change, and to hang your hat on any warped evidence that gives you credence for this.
Forgive me if I ignore the Remainer die-hards and take my lead from neutral observers.
So if the public starts telling us that 2/3rds are opposed to Brexit, we should still carry on.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
You are desperate for public opinion to change, and to hang your hat on any warped evidence that gives you credence for this.
Forgive me if I ignore the Remainer die-hards and take my lead from neutral observers.
I haven't hung my hat on anything. I merely pointed out your desperation to discredit an extremely awkward poll for the Brexit extremists.
Still more likely than not. The voters may no longer want it by the time the negotiations are done but the Tory membership do, and so do the Labour leadership.
The Labour leadership are doing what they believe is the correct thing to do after the referendum but none of the Labour leadership nor 95% of the parliamentary pary voted for it.
For once Roger I believe it is becoming increasingly unlikely. Indeed it has the potential of tearing both conservatives and labour apart. The conservatives problems are well known but Corbyn's attempt to free himself of the EU so he can nationalize will not be supported by many in his party.
I agree which is why it is so unusual to hold a referendum of such importance requiring a simple majority. It was an insane decision by Cameron and a good argument for not choosing a PM 'because he thinks he'll be rather good at it'.
The quality of PMs is not likely to be improving any time soon. Look at the likely list of next PMs (there may be at least three in the next six years):
May (until Wednesday week) Boris Corbyn McDonnell Hammond Rebecca whats-her-name
STARMER
I just can't see how the Corbynista, who are in the ascendency, are going to replace Corbyn with Starmer.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
Yes, you can feel a second referendum coming.
There is a mix of betting opportunities, if with a question of exactly what type of referendum would qualify under a 'yes' bet in each case:
"Next Country to hold an EU In/Out Referendum" - UK 6.6 @ BFEx "EU Referendum before 2020" - Yes 3.2 @ BFEx "EU In/Out Referendum before 2019" - Yes 2.72 (a poor bet given no. 2!)
I also notice there is 1/6 on BFSB (1.14 on BFEx) for No Welsh Indy Referendum before 2020. OK, it's three years away, but a surefire 16% profit, I'd have thought!
Keir Starmer has just ruled out a second EU referendum from the Labour perspective on Marr as it could not take place until we have left the EU. He also said he wanted to get the advantages of the single market without full membership of it
Don't know if this is true,won't labour need to leave the EU for they nationalisation programme which would be against EU law ?
Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about
Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
You are desperate for public opinion to change, and to hang your hat on any warped evidence that gives you credence for this.
Forgive me if I ignore the Remainer die-hards and take my lead from neutral observers.
I haven't hung my hat on anything. I merely pointed out your desperation to discredit an extremely awkward poll for the Brexit extremists.
It isn't. It's inconsistent with other polling, and I've explained how the questions are both leading and inaccurately represented.
I've merely pointed out your desperation to cling to a poll that provides credence for you Brexit reneging bitter-enders.
Did they test "Do you know what Customs Union means?" before asking if we should leave it?
The options defining what a Customs Union is are very leading and, in my opinion, incorrect.
For example, 37% have picked the option 'paying a fee to access this customs union" to enable 'free trade' with the EU. This is then added to the 22% who don't want to Leave the EU at all to make up the 69%, once don't knows are removed.
Firstly, that's not what a customs union is - you can have free trade without it, hence all the EFTA countries - and, secondly, it's asking for access, not full membership of it, and fails to make clear this would inhibit any ability of the UK to make its own trade deals.
Interesting how it's only Remainer bitter-enders sharing this.
Agree with you on the dodginess of merging options in pie charts. I don't think the question is leading but it does oversimplify a complex issue. For example free trade isn't absolute as both the question and your critique of it imply. Customs unions allow for freer trade than you would otherwise have. It does say that a customs union would prevent the UK from negotiating its own trade deals (which isn't strictly the case - it limits what those deals can agree).
The remarkable figure though is that 35% of the population think no agreed deal with the EU would be GOOD for Britain.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
You are desperate for public opinion to change, and to hang your hat on any warped evidence that gives you credence for this.
Forgive me if I ignore the Remainer die-hards and take my lead from neutral observers.
I haven't hung my hat on anything. I merely pointed out your desperation to discredit an extremely awkward poll for the Brexit extremists.
It isn't. It's inconsistent with other polling, and I've explained how the questions are both leading and inaccurately represented.
I've merely pointed out your desperation to cling to a poll that provides credence for you Brexit reneging bitter-enders.
I'm not clinging to this or any poll. I am, however, open to the possibility that public opinion might be on the move after the election. Can you accept that possibility?
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
You are desperate for public opinion to change, and to hang your hat on any warped evidence that gives you credence for this.
Forgive me if I ignore the Remainer die-hards and take my lead from neutral observers.
So if the public starts telling us that 2/3rds are opposed to Brexit, we should still carry on.
Yep,labour are all up for us leaving,the party you support.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
Yes, you can feel a second referendum coming.
There is a mix of betting opportunities, if with a question of exactly what type of referendum would qualify under a 'yes' bet in each case:
"Next Country to hold an EU In/Out Referendum" - UK 6.6 @ BFEx "EU Referendum before 2020" - Yes 3.2 @ BFEx "EU In/Out Referendum before 2019" - Yes 2.72 (a poor bet given no. 2!)
I also notice there is 1/6 on BFSB (1.14 on BFEx) for No Welsh Indy Referendum before 2020. OK, it's three years away, but a surefire 16% profit, I'd have thought!
Keir Starmer has just ruled out a second EU referendum from the Labour perspective on Marr as it could not take place until we have left the EU. He also said he wanted to get the advantages of the single market without full membership of it
Don't know if this is true,won't labour need to leave the EU for they nationalisation programme which would be against EU law ?
May will definitely go but on a practical basis even if she resigned as Tory leader tomorrow she would still have to stay PM for months while the resultant Tory leadership race is decided by the MPs and then the membership. As Iain Dale has also just said on Marr if she is ousted as PM without resigning in an orderly manner that increases the likelihood of another general election in a few months which the Tories would lose and Jeremy Corbyn would become PM
Theresa May became Tory leader in about a fortnight. It simply is not true that a leadership election need take months or even one month.
It does if the membership are involved as they almost certainly will have to be this time. In 2001 and 2005 ID'S and Clarke and Cameron and Davis spent months doing hustings with party members before tye result was announced
Based on Theresa May's election, you'd be looking at around a fortnight for MPs to whittle the field down to two. Even if one is not prevailed on to drop out, it need only take another week to consult the members (or at least the ones not on holiday). The 1922 committee had scheduled two months (before Andrea Leadsom withdrew) but there really is no need in this age of Facebook, Youtube and Twitter. However, even with two months, the new PM could be in place in time for the German elections in September and party conferences beyond that.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
The measure of public opinion used to decide we had a referendum was a majority for a party that pledged to hold one. We didn't have one just because UKIP were doing well in polls or winning by elections. Surely the same measure should be used again?
Still more likely than not. The voters may no longer want it by the time the negotiations are done but the Tory membership do, and so do the Labour leadership.
The Labour leadership are doing what they believe is the correct thing to do after the referendum but none of the Labour leadership nor 95% of the parliamentary pary voted for it.
For once Roger I believe it is becoming increasingly unlikely. Indeed it has the potential of tearing both conservatives and labour apart. The conservatives problems are well known but Corbyn's attempt to free himself of the EU so he can nationalize will not be supported by many in his party.
I agree which is why it is so unusual to hold a referendum of such importance requiring a simple majority. It was an insane decision by Cameron and a good argument for not choosing a PM 'because he thinks he'll be rather good at it'.
The quality of PMs is not likely to be improving any time soon. Look at the likely list of next PMs (there may be at least three in the next six years):
May (until Wednesday week) Boris Corbyn McDonnell Hammond Rebecca whats-her-name
You remember every challenger's name except that of the woman! #optics
Not for the first time the person who comes out best from a dreadful week is Her Majesty. Look at the dignified way she treats people and vice versa.
God save the queen.
You could also contrast how human Corbyn looked dealing with the real public and victims, like the Queen he did not have to have a cordon of police to pass by them , just like the election May does not stoop to speak to the public. She makes Cameron look like a towering giant. Time she looked in the mirror and admitted the game was up.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
You are desperate for public opinion to change, and to hang your hat on any warped evidence that gives you credence for this.
Forgive me if I ignore the Remainer die-hards and take my lead from neutral observers.
So if the public starts telling us that 2/3rds are opposed to Brexit, we should still carry on.
Yep,labour are all up for us leaving,the party you support.
Is that a serious anser to the question of 2/3 being opposed to leaving we should still go ahead? Whilst proving such a sentiment existed would be a good argument but even if proved you believe the referendum should be honoured.
Hammond rules out further borrowing but suggests an easing of austerity in his next budget while still aiming to restore the public finances to balance over the longer term
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
Yes, you can feel a second referendum coming.
There is a mix of betting opportunities, if with a question of exactly what type of referendum would qualify under a 'yes' bet in each case:
"Next Country to hold an EU In/Out Referendum" - UK 6.6 @ BFEx "EU Referendum before 2020" - Yes 3.2 @ BFEx "EU In/Out Referendum before 2019" - Yes 2.72 (a poor bet given no. 2!)
I also notice there is 1/6 on BFSB (1.14 on BFEx) for No Welsh Indy Referendum before 2020. OK, it's three years away, but a surefire 16% profit, I'd have thought!
Keir Starmer has just ruled out a second EU referendum from the Labour perspective on Marr as it could not take place until we have left the EU. He also said he wanted to get the advantages of the single market without full membership of it
Don't know if this is true,won't labour need to leave the EU for they nationalisation programme which would be against EU law ?
Given that many of our EU peers have happily nationalised rail and energy industries I do feel this is somewhat overplayed!
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
Yes, you can feel a second referendum coming.
There is a mix of betting opportunities, if with a question of exactly what type of referendum would qualify under a 'yes' bet in each case:
"Next Country to hold an EU In/Out Referendum" - UK 6.6 @ BFEx "EU Referendum before 2020" - Yes 3.2 @ BFEx "EU In/Out Referendum before 2019" - Yes 2.72 (a poor bet given no. 2!)
I also notice there is 1/6 on BFSB (1.14 on BFEx) for No Welsh Indy Referendum before 2020. OK, it's three years away, but a surefire 16% profit, I'd have thought!
Keir Starmer has just ruled out a second EU referendum from the Labour perspective on Marr as it could not take place until we have left the EU. He also said he wanted to get the advantages of the single market without full membership of it
Whatever Labour (or indeed the government) might say now isn't really pertinent as to what might be the public mood, and whoever is in charge at the time's response to it, in two years time.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
I think the mood is changing. I cannot stand Faisal Islam but my own thoughts have changed mainly because the future of Airbus is under threat in North Wales. My son in law along with many thousands in North Wales and Cheshire depend on these high quality jobs
Yes, you can feel a second referendum coming.
There is a mix of betting opportunities, if with a question of exactly what type of referendum would qualify under a 'yes' bet in each case:
"Next Country to hold an EU In/Out Referendum" - UK 6.6 @ BFEx "EU Referendum before 2020" - Yes 3.2 @ BFEx "EU In/Out Referendum before 2019" - Yes 2.72 (a poor bet given no. 2!)
I also notice there is 1/6 on BFSB (1.14 on BFEx) for No Welsh Indy Referendum before 2020. OK, it's three years away, but a surefire 16% profit, I'd have thought!
Keir Starmer has just ruled out a second EU referendum from the Labour perspective on Marr as it could not take place until we have left the EU. He also said he wanted to get the advantages of the single market without full membership of it
Don't know if this is true,won't labour need to leave the EU for they nationalisation programme which would be against EU law ?
Hammond rules out further borrowing but suggests an easing of austerity in his next budget while still aiming to restore the public finances to balance over the longer term
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
You are desperate for public opinion to change, and to hang your hat on any warped evidence that gives you credence for this.
Forgive me if I ignore the Remainer die-hards and take my lead from neutral observers.
So if the public starts telling us that 2/3rds are opposed to Brexit, we should still carry on.
If that does happen, then we clearly wouldn't be able to proceed. But this poll show no evidence of that. And the way the results are being represented, by the ultra-Remainer Mail-on-Sunday, are misleading.
If you actually look at how Survation articulate the question, they say "they've used CETA as a model" for the questions.
Canada is absolutely not part of the customs union. They're not even intending to ask for membership of the customs union in this poll, just opinion on paying a fee to access it.
How many Remainers are pointing that out in their desperate glee to tweet this poll?
Still more likely than not. The voters may no longer want it by the time the negotiations are done but the Tory membership do, and so do the Labour leadership.
The Labour leadership are doing what they believe is the correct thing to do after the referendum but none of the Labour leadership nor 95% of the parliamentary pary voted for it.
For once Roger I believe it is becoming increasingly unlikely. Indeed it has the potential of tearing both conservatives and labour apart. The conservatives problems are well known but Corbyn's attempt to free himself of the EU so he can nationalize will not be supported by many in his party.
I agree which is why it is so unusual to hold a referendum of such importance requiring a simple majority. It was an insane decision by Cameron and a good argument for not choosing a PM 'because he thinks he'll be rather good at it'.
The quality of PMs is not likely to be improving any time soon. Look at the likely list of next PMs (there may be at least three in the next six years):
May (until Wednesday week) Boris Corbyn McDonnell Hammond Rebecca whats-her-name
You remember every challenger's name except that of the woman! #optics
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
You are desperate for public opinion to change, and to hang your hat on any warped evidence that gives you credence for this.
Forgive me if I ignore the Remainer die-hards and take my lead from neutral observers.
I haven't hung my hat on anything. I merely pointed out your desperation to discredit an extremely awkward poll for the Brexit extremists.
It isn't. It's inconsistent with other polling, and I've explained how the questions are both leading and inaccurately represented.
I've merely pointed out your desperation to cling to a poll that provides credence for you Brexit reneging bitter-enders.
I'm not clinging to this or any poll. I am, however, open to the possibility that public opinion might be on the move after the election. Can you accept that possibility?
If the facts change, I may change my opinion. Of course.
I am disputing that this provides evidence of this.
Commentator on Marr asking why helicopters were not spraying water over the buildings and rescuing people. Apparently the fire service banned the helicopters due to downdraft problems which seems obvious when you think about
Flying helicopters at night, in the middle of a city around a tower block on fire?. Sounds fun.
Even in the middle of the night, an inferno is clearly visible. More visible than during the day.
I take it you have not seen helicopters dousing fire in LA, for example.
Those are astounding numbers. We must now countenance the possibility that public opinion swings sharply away from Brexit, during the negotiations
They are misleading numbers, and misleading questions.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
Translation: I don't like the results.
Ah, another bitter-ender Remainer looking to jump on the wagon of results he loves.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
Your characterisation of me is as inaccurate as your analysis of this poll.
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
The measure of public opinion used to decide we had a referendum was a majority for a party that pledged to hold one. We didn't have one just because UKIP were doing well in polls or winning by elections. Surely the same measure should be used again?
No party got an overall majority. It might yet be that a second referendum is something that the majority of the House feels is appropriate in the changed circumstances.
Hammond's either going to get himself pilloried for being wrong or someone is going to prison.
Slightly odd phrasing: 'understands that'. Surely you'd make certain before saying such a thing?
These interviews are usually pretty dull and you don't learn much. But that really was something out of the ordinary. Hopefully other journalists realise the significance of what he's said and follow it up.
Comments
I'm baffled as to where they come from.
I don't think we need take any lectures on 'dark chauvinism' from them.
Secondly, the tone May took over Brexit - totally illiberal and opaque made even those who aren't angling to overturn the result queasy and feel they had to vote Labour. Speaking to a friend just before the election summed it up. Approaching 30, with a well paid job, well aware that the Labour manifesto did not bear close scrutiny, in other words, exactly the kind of person who should be susceptible to the Tory message - we'll get you a first home etc. But simply felt he had to vote Labour because there was no way he was going to endorse the way May had behaved and thought taking the chance was the better option. Corbyn's talk on Brexit might be utter guff, but as neither side can explain how it's going to work he gets away with it.
Brexit has turned the country into a mistrustful, divided and volatile one, as there's no way of satisfying different groups without another thinking their future's being ruined - and as such it has made Prime Minister Corbyn a possibility - because a lot of people who normally would recoil at the hard left stuff see it as no less absurd than what they'd vote for to repudiate it.
Assisted her enemies, both internal and external. Exacerbated divisions in Britain. And annoyed much of Europe.
Our nation begins all-important Brexit talks tomorrow with a badly wounded leader hastily cobbling together a fresh team and stance. ‘We’re not surprised by seeing her weakness,’ one European diplomat told me. ‘We knew she was weak.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4614502/IAN-BIRREL-Theresa-s-toughest-challenge-all.html#ixzz4kL3AsOtv
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It also completely undermined their justification for all the nasty things we have endured since 2010, leading inexorably to the current end of the age of austerity.
http://www.cracked.com/blog/how-americans-turn-past-presidents-into-superheroes/
I have been through various attitudes to Brexit but my wife and I were looking back with nostalgia to Cameron's pre referendum days and with the extraordinary political earthquakes having taken place over the last few weeks the mood of the nation does seem to have changed.
I admit to again changing my views due to very real concerns about the economic damage, reputational damage, and coherence in society that we are now facing
A lot of social tenancy agreements allow people to take in lodgers.
What I actually mean is that to be PM requires a a very wide skill set. Most people would quickly find themselves hopelessly out of their depth. Any PM will be severely tested sooner or later, and his or her shortcomings brutally exposed. This is no better illustrated than in the case of Mrs May. Cameron and Blair each had a broadly based skill set and enjoyed success over a long period. Corbyn is good at empathy and good at campaigning but I cannot so far see that their is much else which stands out.
Hopefully she will stay for a couple of years and then be replaced by someone else found wanting.
Then it will be Jezza's successor walking in to Number 10.
It's Peston, Islam, and the bitter-ender Remainers that are sharing these as part of their lobbying effort: they smell blood.
The remarkable figure though is that 35% of the population think no agreed deal with the EU would be GOOD for Britain.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/876229965108445185
Mr. NorthWales, you'll never make Lord High Chancellor with an attitude like that.
More seriously, you may be right. But that then poses a significant problem for the country.
That's partly because I know the economic fundamentals are shite.
There's too much concentration on the number of people in work and too little on business investment, productivity and wages.
The lack of good pay rises is a big driver of dissatisfaction with the establishment.
But it's just one poll.
God save the queen.
Possibly not an ideal quality for a prime minister.
We are going through a testing time at the moment so I expect people feel nervious.
I've explained downthread why these results are misleading.
There are plenty of other polls showing a very different picture, including support for the Government's current position, which is consistent at about 43-45%.
The lobbying effort has restarted again, full on again, at Mach 2, because of the GE2017 results, and the Remainers smell blood.
There is a mix of betting opportunities, if with a question of exactly what type of referendum would qualify under a 'yes' bet in each case:
"Next Country to hold an EU In/Out Referendum" - UK 6.6 @ BFEx
"EU Referendum before 2020" - Yes 3.2 @ BFEx
"EU In/Out Referendum before 2019" - Yes 2.72 (a poor bet given no. 2!)
I also notice there is 1/6 on BFSB (1.14 on BFEx) for No Welsh Indy Referendum before 2020. OK, it's three years away, but a surefire 16% profit, I'd have thought!
My position, about which I've been consistent since even before the referendum result, is that the result has to be respected in spirit as well as the letter, unless and until public opinion has decisively changed. It's going to be a disaster but that's democracy for you.
There's a joke there but I can't quite work out what it is.
So many people conflating what they want to happen with reality.
If i were putting money on the next Tory leader, i would back Andrea Leadsom. She was a prominent Brexit supporter, but i can't recall her saying much on Brexit recently. She might be trying to play a more neutral conciliatory role and therefore appeal to more Tories.
May (until Wednesday week)
Boris
Corbyn
McDonnell
Hammond
Rebecca whats-her-name
The second effect, which is also non-negligible is that the way May went about Brexit - that conference speech, crush the saboteurs etc., no transparency, has pushed the kind of liberal centrist voters Cameron and Osborne believed were essential to Tory success, away. The assumption was Corbyn's politics would do this in reverse, but by failing to reassure those voters, May has entrenched the divisions of the referendum, resulting in the current impasse - except you've got harsh Brexit versus cuddly Brexit (neither of which are very coherent) rather than leave versus remain.
https://www.facebook.com/ChristmasLiveDaily/videos/1850378288545326/
Things you do need: Huge quantities of highest grade blackout lining for your curtains
Some people need to wake up and smell the coffee
Free trade means both sides don't pay tariffs on goods within the scope of that agreement, but you still have to show you've complied with rules-of-origin checks at the borders between those countries, as EFTA states do. Customs union means there is no need for customs checks internally, except at the borders of that customs union as a whole, because you've already done them already; however, tariffs are set at a common level.
That means the EU commission negotiates as a whole in international trade deals, because the level of sovereign control a state would have over its own tariff and regulatory regime is so limited (non-existent) there'd be little to no point even if it wanted to.
If we're Leaving the EU to realise benefits and future opportunities, then quitting the customs union is probably the most obvious thing to do first, subject to a transition period.
And it's not just us either who wish to quit the customs union..
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/876012709753565184
Presumably it would also cover being dragged out of Downing Street, kicking and screaming.
Forgive me if I ignore the Remainer die-hards and take my lead from neutral observers.
Forgive me if I ignore the Remainer die-hards and take my lead from neutral observers.
I haven't hung my hat on anything. I merely pointed out your desperation to discredit an extremely awkward poll for the Brexit extremists.
It isn't. It's inconsistent with other polling, and I've explained how the questions are both leading and inaccurately represented.
I've merely pointed out your desperation to cling to a poll that provides credence for you Brexit reneging bitter-enders.
I've merely pointed out your desperation to cling to a poll that provides credence for you Brexit reneging bitter-enders.
I'm not clinging to this or any poll. I am, however, open to the possibility that public opinion might be on the move after the election. Can you accept that possibility?
Here is the Commons paper on Conservative leadership elections.
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN01366
Slightly odd phrasing: 'understands that'. Surely you'd make certain before saying such a thing?
If you actually look at how Survation articulate the question, they say "they've used CETA as a model" for the questions.
Canada is absolutely not part of the customs union. They're not even intending to ask for membership of the customs union in this poll, just opinion on paying a fee to access it.
How many Remainers are pointing that out in their desperate glee to tweet this poll?
If the facts change, I may change my opinion. Of course.
I am disputing that this provides evidence of this.
I take it you have not seen helicopters dousing fire in LA, for example.
Personally, I'm not in favour of one.