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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first leader out betting. (Also known as how much the world has changed in the last ten days)
THE SUNDAY TIMES: "Tories tell May: You have 10 days" #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/8TZEB20YuI
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http://hastheresamayresignedyet.com
http://hastheresamayresignedyet.com
*innocent face*
http://osborneforpm.com
I'll get my coat.
It takes a lot for me to sympathise with a brexiteer in trouble but when I see people trying to crucify her for not 'doing' sympathy properly I start feeling queasy. Remember they did the same to HRH when Diana died and a more excruciating example of tawdry mob rule I can't remember seeing.
Although it wouldn't totally surprise me to learn the real mistake was made by a disgruntled and rather dim backbencher stirring the pot without knowing what they're talking about.
Anyone know where Anna Soubry is?
Brexit - if any ministers resign rather than endorse whatever deal May comes up with she will be in trouble, especially if they're big names.
The Grenfell tower inquiry - if Conservative politicians get any of the blame the party will suffer. If they don't, May will be accused of a whitewash.
The 2018 locals - a bad performance and many Conservative MPs will write May off as an electoral liability.
If May survives all three she can probably last until the next general election.
It is equally possible that she has already decided to go, but knows that she has to see through the QS and the stub end of the current parliament, before resigning to allow a contest in the summer.
You really don't get it - two months ago you had it all, a dominant and popular personality as Prime Minister, commanding poll leads and facing an Opposition for whom every spokesman or spokeswoman's interview was a "car crash" (apparently).
Yet that wasn't enough - hubris set in, all you had to do was a short snap Presidential campaign, expose Corbyn for the bumbling, socialist non-entity he really was, send May and her message into the heartlands and the landslide was inevitable.
100 seat majority, 150 seat majority, all seemed possible if not probable.
The whole thing was built on hubris and sand - May turns out to have the charisma of a dead pot plant and the voter appeal of last week's leftover curry.
Oh, but wait, here comes the bleating - we won 13 million votes and 318 seats, we still won, everyone still likes us, we are still the Government, we are still in power.
But that's the point - the people have the power, not you, and the election proved it. Yes, they don't want Corbyn to be Prime Minister but they didn't want May to have untrammeled power either. They've left an ungodly mess but it's your mess, it was your election, it was your hubris.
I've seen little sign of humility in the Conservative ranks on here - shock, yes, incomprehension maybe and the traditional lashing out at CCHQ, the BBC, the voters etc, etc.
It's time to realise you're not the only game in town - there are people with opinions, ideas and plans for Brexit and many other things but they aren't and won't be Conservatives. You need to find a way to reach out, include and be inclusive and it starts with acknowledging your own mistakes and stupidity.
Deal with it.
* United States: US$60.4 billion (14.8% of total UK exports)
http://www.worldstopexports.com/united-kingdoms-top-import-partners/
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/876324949975281664
Unlike the Labour party that requires 12.5% of MPs to nominate a candidate. The Labour Party system stops the nomination of odd ball candidates without significant backing of MPs being put forward to the party members. Oh wait a minute....
With Brexit it seems we are starting afresh with immigration so we may as well know who is here and get them on to the system.
Ironically, this is repeating the May mistake as far as perceptions go. She 'saw off' Boris and Gove, and Leadsom, all of whom imploded. There was no excellence (one could argue, and I did, it was masterly inactivity, the problem only arising when she actually tried to say or do anything and it turned out to be rubbish) of May, just weakness of her foes.
Corbyn isn't seeing off PMs. They're ruining themselves by failing to judge or appeal to the public mood sufficiently.
Cameron could've easily won the referendum had he not been so contemptuous towards the basket of deplorables (sorry, Little Englanders). May could've easily won the election by a landslide had she not decided that three weeks before polling days was the perfect time to scare the Conservative core vote shitless with an untested policy for the demented.
Corbyn has improved, and that's something that should concern everyone who isn't far left. But the departure of Cameron, and future departure of May, is down to their failings, not Corbyn's excellence.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labours-new-kensington-mp-was-on-housing-scrutiny-committee-a3566661.html
CCCC Day 10 - 0745am
Auchentennach Bugle News Quiz - All the Following Statement Are True Except One :
1. Tens days on from election day the is still no C&S deal with the DUP
2. The PM's approval rating is now greater than net minus 30
3. The 2018 Queen's Speech is cancelled before the 2017 has been delivered.
4. TSE's Grenfell donation of red shoes has been rejected as survivors are traumatized enough.
5. The Daily Telegraph is now a Poundshop "Daily Express"
6. Conservative K&C Council hand delivered dog fouling letters in Grenfell area on Thursday.
7. SeanT had his greatest ever orgasm yesterday. (last thread)
8. JackW will host a BBQ (whatever that is !!) today.
...................................................
Sadly the correct answer is not the one about outdoor cremated meat, a swimming pool and bizarre "yoof" music ....
Party whips received information this weekend that some MPs have started to draft letters of no confidence against Mrs May.
These will be sent to the party’s backbench 1922 Committee if her performance fails to improve before the first Commons votes on the Queen’s Speech in ten days’ time.
A contest would be triggered if the committee receives 48 letters – 15 per cent of the parliamentary party – with Mr Johnson and Mr Davis already established as the clear frontrunners.
And last night, The Mail on Sunday was told by one senior pro-Brexit MP that he would be ‘astounded’ if letters had not gone in already.
He said plans were being hatched to present Mrs May with ‘an ultimatum’ that she had to go and be replaced if possible by a new leader, installed unopposed to avoid a divisive contest.
The MP said: ‘The mood towards Theresa completely changed last week. We started thinking she could limp on for a few months. But her response to the Grenfell Tower tragedy has telescoped that into a matter of days or weeks.’
He said Mr Johnson was probably most people’s preferred choice.
Returning to their constituencies after being sworn in at Westminster, Tory MPs were taken aback at the scale of the anger of grassroots party activists over Mrs May’s performance last week.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4614492/Wounded-knees-PM-faces-civil-war.html#ixzz4kJh7aSDh
I believe he is also helping organise the help.
She hid that well...
You are quite right - the current Conservative leader (and her predecessor) both completely misjudged and misread the public mood. Now, is that down to poor advice or poor political instincts ?
I don't know yet we were being constantly told on here how popular May was and how she should call an election and how easily she'd win it and all that nonsense.
Corbyn is, as Nick Palmer told us, completely what he seems. He's avuncular and easy going and reminds me of a modern Harold Wilson in that regard. I begin to wonder how much of the Conservative vote of 8/6 was really an anti-Corbyn vote and as he starts to look a more viable alternative, whether we will see Conservative numbers plunge further.
Prime Minister Theresa May. Left in office by a party despite her politically harming herself and the party every day because although they agree she has to go they cant agree who comes next. Her behaviour so poor that it's pretty obvious to her MPs and other observers that she's suffering from some kind of depressive state.
Unable to negotiate a deal with the DUP without prompting war inside the party or the 6 counties but definitely the suitable person to lead our impossibly hard Brexit talks next week.
Presenting a 2 year programme of government because why bother with a confidence issue next year when you don't have to. Which will contain ? We know her manifesto will be rejected by everyone else including the DUP whether they pass it as a QS or not. We know that on the only issue that counts a sizeable number of her own MPs won't for a soft Brexit line but she doesn't have a majority in the house for hard Brexit either.
So despite all the guff spoken on here about winning millions of votes and most seats, please tell me what power and authority she has. Or what power or authority a replacement will have to get Brexit through without losing a significant number of Tory and with it the majority?
Tories. If she stays, you're done. If she goes, you're done. Europe has torn you apart again.
Corbyn is not what he seems. His mealy-mouthed claims on Trident ring hollow. He's a far left fool, backed up by a Marxist Shadow Chancellor.
Do we have an impeachment procedure in this country? Surely not or Cameron would already be on trial.
Funny old business this politics lark.
Since diving to 1.5 on Betfair Jo Swinson has been drifting out for days, now 2.4 to back. Betway is the first bookie to follow suit, moving her to 2.25. Everyone else still around 1.5.
Oh .... but those "details" !!
I wonder if she's not going to stand.
Mr. W, Flavius Phocas also enjoyed substantial popularity immediately prior to his reign.
"Jo Swinson is the runaway favourite
When asked to rate the 11 Liberal Democrat MPs other than Tim Farron in order of preference for party leader, 57% gave Jo Swinson their first preference.
No other candidate got even as high as 15% of first preferences. On that showing, she would win in the first round in any contest. Even if her vote dipped below 50% in an actual contest, she draws second preferences widely from the supporters of all other MPs, and would still win with ease based on this survey.
Because of her clear lead over all other candidates combined, it does not matter what combination of other candidates there really are when it comes to the actual election. She would win easily whatever the actual line up is.
If Jo Swinson doesn't stand...
Lamb slightly ahead of Cable - If Jo Swinson wins clearly whatever the combination of candidates, it's a very different picture if she doesn't stand. Rerunning the count with her votes transferred over to their second preferences gives a very close looking race with Norman Lamb fractionally ahead of Vince Cable with 30% to his 29%. Edward Davey is on 18% and the other MPs share the rest of the support, with Layla Moran the best of the rest on 8%.
If all the other candidates are eliminated and votes transferred to Norman Lamb or Vince Cable, Norman Lamb extends his lead, just, to a 52% - 48% margin over Vince Cable.
Note: It is possible these figures under-estimate Norman Lamb's actual support compared with Vince Cable as the responses slightly over-represent London members, where Vince Cable is stronger, and also the proportion recalling that they voted for Norman Lamb rather than Tim Farron in 2015 is on the low side (though that may be the usual effect of people's memories changing or fading to the detriment of the non-winner when recalling how they voted). The first factor, however, is, at most, not large and the second is unknown.
Cable ahead of Davey - If Norman Lamb also does not stand, then Vince Cable wins out over Edward Davey 57%-43%."
Yes, there are lots of people in work but we all know people are cheap compared to proper investment in technology and improvements in business processes.
We then have Conservatives like May pretending to be sympathetic to the JAMMS or the squeezed middle or whatever it's being called this week but the standard Conservative response is just tax cuts.
In the longer term, CCHQ's attempts to relieve the pressure on May by pointing to Labour figures is likely to founder against counter-charges of Conservatives cutting regulations and fire stations, regardless of whether or not there is a direct causal link. But for the immediate question of Mrs May's continued premiership, it is irrelevant anyway.
And SWP involvement is probably overstated. Their SOP for demonstrations and marches has always been to provide more placards and banners than demonstrators, so that others without their own can carry them.
If Mark Pack is anywhere near it's hers for the taking, however. I've just topped up at 2.4.
So the Tories are about to compound a blunder with an imbecility.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/inadequate-council-ordered-home-as-red-cross-is-drafted-to-help-grenfell-tower-victims-s3720jx39
Edited extra bit: just put a tiny sum on Swinson to slightly alter the balance of results.
For example, 37% have picked the option 'paying a fee to access this customs union" to enable 'free trade' with the EU. This is then added to the 22% who don't want to Leave the EU at all to make up the 69%, once don't knows are removed.
Firstly, that's not what a customs union is - you can have free trade without it, hence all the EFTA countries - and, secondly, it's asking for access, not full membership of it, and fails to make clear this would inhibit any ability of the UK to make its own trade deals.
Interesting how it's only Remainer bitter-enders sharing this.
(EDIT: Actually, I note Cable and Lamb have publicly flirted with running, but Swinson hasn't. She surely can't think she'll have a better chance later, or that she can rely on becoming leader later when the party is 'more worth running'?)
Listened to an interview with a minister re TM meeting yesterday where she became very tearful and both she and a resident held hands in sadness for 20 minutes. The problem for TM is that she feels the pain every bit as much as others but finds it difficult to show empathy
Edit. Bloody predictive text!
Edit/ you can still get 1.04 on Tim going between July and September, as he has said he will.
Much credit goes to the Cameron and Clegg and their teams who worked as partners in a crisis situation and who were prepared to compromise in the national interest.
Compare and contrast .... Hhhhmm ....
Some wag has said that the Tories are having grave doubts about one part of the DUP manifesto demands - All Old Testament and fortnightly bin collections .....
Apparently the Conservatives can't get past the rubbish ....
By sidestepping the FTPA and gambling with her majority for Party political gain, despite May saying she respects the will of the people who voted in the referendum, she actually ignored the fact that people had voted for Leave in the knowledge that a Conservative government with a working majority would be there to see it through.
If, a year ago, people had been told that Brexit would be negotiated by a Conservative minority government, propped up by the DUP, then the referendum result may well have been different.
It's an unholy mess totally created by Theresa May in the hope of party political gain.
(As it's not a poll, and not BPC in any case, no tables or results beyond Mark Pack's email.)
The promise of Brexit was steeped in ideology from the very beginning, a fairy tale based on dark chauvinism. The Spanish Armada, Napoleon, Hitler and now the Polish plumbers who allegedly push down wages -- when in reality they ensured that, after decades of lukewarmly dripping showers, the country's bathrooms gradually returned to functionality. Brexit was never a particularly good idea. Now, following the most recent election, Brexit is defunct. That, at least, is what a member of Theresa May's cabinet intimated last weekend. "In practical terms, Brexit is dead," an unnamed minister told the Financial Times.