politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Electing a leader from Scotland could give the LDs a huge boos
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https://twitter.com/ianswansonen/status/875294710683840513dr_spyn said:How long will it take Kezia to chuck them out of SLAB?
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I'm working on it.Slackbladder said:We really need a new centralist polictical party right about now...
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You'd have to. But a new election in May next year would still leave the final settlement to whatever government came out of that poll.logical_song said:
So, would the Tories stand by and let Corbyn do whatever he wants to do with Brexit (admittedly we don't rally know what that would be - and whether his MPs would let him)?david_herdson said:
It's not just partisan. I think the May government has run out of steam but will continue, zombie-like, to stumble onwards unless checked - to no-one's great benefit. That deadlock will be broken one way or another and the likelihood is that a Labour majority results at the end of it. Preventing that outcome is in the national interest.logical_song said:
Quite nice in a breathtakingly partisan and cynical way.david_herdson said:
They're not there. But Corbyn is willing to give it a go because Corbyn can't count (or doesn't understand the relevance of being able to count.logical_song said:
Where are the numbers for Labour's coalition?david_herdson said:
From a purely tactical point of view, that is one very good reason to let Corbyn have a go now. The choice is not Lab or not Lab. The choice is Lab now or Lab later. Lab now - with an unviable coalition in parliament and a Con majority capable of blocking a new election and any legislation that would have permanently damaging effects, and able to bring Lab down at a time of its choosing - is the better option for the country.nunuone said:
The narrative has changed against the government. There is little they can do. They can change leader, give freebies etc etc but Corbyn is looking more like a leader everyday as much as it pains me to say it.
We should all prepare ourselves for PM Corbyn mentally now, so the shock is less when/if it happens.
Give him a year, let him fail and then go back to the country.
They wouldn't last long as a minority government.
They can last precisely as long as the Tory leader wants them to last. And in the meantime, the Tories can get on with choosing a new leader.
Seeing Corbyn on the international stage will be a necessary educative process for the public.0 -
Has the past year taught you nothing? He would not fail. Obviously, he's as thick as fuck and a complete moral void but he'd be quite good at being PM.david_herdson said:
Give him a year, let him fail and then go back to the country.
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Good move by SLab. The Nats are ultra-toxic.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/ianswansonen/status/875294710683840513dr_spyn said:How long will it take Kezia to chuck them out of SLAB?
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Where's the rest of the table? Or is this another pretence that Jez iz worzt?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Andrea Leadsom getting utterly pasted on Sky by residents. This is going to get out of hand.0
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I disagree with the disparagement of Gordon Brown. He made the correct call on the Credit Crunch, unlike many other leaders at the time, including domestically George Osborne. If a patient is suffering a heart attack you apply maximum treatment as quickly as you can.Theuniondivvie said:
Muffled cheer from Gordon Brown's hoose.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.0 -
Overall, 70% think that the government should go ahead with Brexit, with this group being split between those that actually support it (44%) and those who don’t personally back it but it but think the government has a duty to go ahead with it regardless (26%).AlastairMeeks said:
But there simply isn't the evidence for that yet.logical_song said:
It's wrong but we should do it.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm part of both of those "most people" groups.FF43 said:
We're currently in the strange situation where most people think Brexit was a mistake but most people think we should get on and do it.rottenborough said:
A certain amount of wishful thinking, but may well turn out to be right.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still think we'll collectively change our minds once the recession seriously kicks in.
There's nothing like a consensus to change course. If public opinion moves sharply against (and it might yet), a second referendum might become appropriate. But right now there's no case for anything other than implementing the referendum result.
Why?
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/15/majority-favour-pushing-brexit-many-are-tempted-so/0 -
Will it be called "Go Onwards!" ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm working on it.Slackbladder said:We really need a new centralist polictical party right about now...
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Ultra generous on Lab. Genuine 2.00 free money.TheScreamingEagles said:Well done Theresa.
https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/8756326903424491520 -
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.0 -
Yesterday was the end of May. She will not survive not meeting residents.0
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If you're only just managing to pay the mortgage when interest rates are 0.25%, then perhaps you shouldn't have borrowed so much money.SouthamObserver said:
If interest rates do go up that is going to hurt an awful lot of homeowners who are currently just about managing. Throw in a Brexit downturn on top and it will start to get very difficult indeed for the Tories.rottenborough said:Some interesting thoughts from Goodwin on Labour's message:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/875623361019170817
Will we see some capital flight once/if it becomes clear Corbyn will win next time?0 -
I agree.Dura_Ace said:
Has the past year taught you nothing? He would not fail. Obviously, he's as thick as fuck and a complete moral void but he'd be quite good at being PM.david_herdson said:
Give him a year, let him fail and then go back to the country.0 -
In fairness Leadsom turned up and did her best in a very testing situation. Spoke to residents privately and on the streets.dyedwoolie said:Andrea Leadsom getting utterly pasted on Sky by residents. This is going to get out of hand.
Stark contrast to the Prime Minister.0 -
If May had any nous she'd ennoble Osborne and Cameron and let them run the country.williamglenn said:
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.
She's just not up to it.0 -
Unless he is overtaken by vanity would Corbyn not see the trap and refuse to walk into it?david_herdson said:
You'd have to. But a new election in May next year would still leave the final settlement to whatever government came out of that poll.logical_song said:
So, would the Tories stand by and let Corbyn do whatever he wants to do with Brexit (admittedly we don't rally know what that would be - and whether his MPs would let him)?david_herdson said:
It's not just partisan. I think the May government has run out of steam but will continue, zombie-like, to stumble onwards unless checked - to no-one's great benefit. That deadlock will be broken one way or another and the likelihood is that a Labour majority results at the end of it. Preventing that outcome is in the national interest.logical_song said:
Quite nice in a breathtakingly partisan and cynical way.david_herdson said:
They're not there. But Corbyn is willing to give it a go because Corbyn can't count (or doesn't understand the relevance of being able to count.logical_song said:
Where are the numbers for Labour's coalition?david_herdson said:
From a purely tactical point of view, that is one very good reason to let Corbyn have a go now. The choice is not Lab or not Lab. The choice is Lab now or Lab later. Lab now - with an unviable coalition in parliament and a Con majority capable of blocking a new election and any legislation that would have permanently damaging effects, and able to bring Lab down at a time of its choosing - is the better option for the country.nunuone said:
The narrative has changed against the government. There is little they can do. They can change leader, give freebies etc etc but Corbyn is looking more like a leader everyday as much as it pains me to say it.
We should all prepare ourselves for PM Corbyn mentally now, so the shock is less when/if it happens.
Give him a year, let him fail and then go back to the country.
They wouldn't last long as a minority government.
They can last precisely as long as the Tory leader wants them to last. And in the meantime, the Tories can get on with choosing a new leader.
Seeing Corbyn on the international stage will be a necessary educative process for the public.0 -
I cannot imagine how the Prime Minister could have conceived the idea of not meeting the residents. She's the nation's leader: this was a shocking failure of leadership.JackW said:
In fairness Leadsom turned up and did her best in a very testing situation. Spoke to residents privately and on the streets.dyedwoolie said:Andrea Leadsom getting utterly pasted on Sky by residents. This is going to get out of hand.
Stark contrast to the Prime Minister.0 -
Andrea Leadsom visiting the Grenfell Tower area and talking to local people.
Showing how people who have children are more capable of empathising with those affected by the fire.
Leadsom guaranteed to be standing for the leadership again.0 -
We shall see. I'm going all General The Lord Kitchener on a few people.Andy_Cooke said:
Will it be called "Go Onwards!" ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm working on it.Slackbladder said:We really need a new centralist polictical party right about now...
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The media and some posting won't be happy until a political figure gets hurt.0
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Oh indeed. But you could feel the simmering rage coming through the screen. It's grim out there.JackW said:
In fairness Leadsom turned up and did her best in a very testing situation. Spoke to residents privately and on the streets.dyedwoolie said:Andrea Leadsom getting utterly pasted on Sky by residents. This is going to get out of hand.
Stark contrast to the Prime Minister.0 -
Poor Kendall thinks she can avoid the purge. She's probably in the top ten of the hard left's liquidation list.isam said:0 -
Mr. W, lambasted if they turn up, lambasted if they don't.0
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That interviewer was trying to stoke up the anti May sentiment kept on asking if she cares is she coming to meet themJackW said:
In fairness Leadsom turned up and did her best in a very testing situation. Spoke to residents privately and on the streets.dyedwoolie said:Andrea Leadsom getting utterly pasted on Sky by residents. This is going to get out of hand.
Stark contrast to the Prime Minister.0 -
Mortgage rates on SVR which many people are on as you well know are over 4%..They are on those rates in many instances due to a change in personal circumstances , so are unable to get any deals.rcs1000 said:
If you're only just managing to pay the mortgage when interest rates are 0.25%, then perhaps you shouldn't have borrowed so much money.SouthamObserver said:
If interest rates do go up that is going to hurt an awful lot of homeowners who are currently just about managing. Throw in a Brexit downturn on top and it will start to get very difficult indeed for the Tories.rottenborough said:Some interesting thoughts from Goodwin on Labour's message:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/875623361019170817
Will we see some capital flight once/if it becomes clear Corbyn will win next time?0 -
You should be a politician.rcs1000 said:
If you're only just managing to pay the mortgage when interest rates are 0.25%, then perhaps you shouldn't have borrowed so much money.SouthamObserver said:
If interest rates do go up that is going to hurt an awful lot of homeowners who are currently just about managing. Throw in a Brexit downturn on top and it will start to get very difficult indeed for the Tories.rottenborough said:Some interesting thoughts from Goodwin on Labour's message:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/875623361019170817
Will we see some capital flight once/if it becomes clear Corbyn will win next time?0 -
Well the theory is that the powers that be weren't too keen on Farron attempting to hand his job on to Swinson. Whether there is truth, I don't know. Who stands for leader, and who they are backed by, might provide a clue.Barnesian said:
They haven't yet. I agree it is the sensible thing.IanB2 said:
Surely they will do the sensible thing and defer the deputy election until after?Barnesian said:
There is an election by the 12 LibDem MPs for Deputy Leader with the result to be announced by 27 June at the latest i.e. very soon.Pulpstar said:If Jo runs, she wins I think.
I'm inclined more towards Lamb personally, mind.
So this leaves the four potential contenders for Leader in a quandry. Do they let their names go forward for Deputy Leader or not? I suspect that Jo Swinson will run for Deputy Leader and will be elected unanimously. This will allow her to be tested and gain the experience needed to become the leader in say two years time. We'll know in the next few days.
In the meantime we need an experienced heavyweight who can "cut through" in the media and is willing to stand down in say two years time (after Mar 2019) to allow Swinson to become leader. That person is Cable.
I don't like Cable and I'd hate to work for him. He is full of conceit and a loose cannon because of it. Nevertheless, if he promises not to go into coalition with the Tories under any circumstances, I will hold my nose and vote for him as Leader.
I think the Scottish dimension is very tactical, quite suspect and basically irrelevant.
At 17:08 on Wednesday I got an email from Farron saying nominations had opened for the position of Deputy :Leader. At 18:38 I got another announcing his resignation.0 -
Christ - at least Leadsom has turned up and there is a face of the Government actually speaking to the people trying to deal with this.
Maybe the Tories should have picked her. She is flawed but she is quite evidently human.0 -
Brown made the correct call on the Credit Crunch, when it wasn't obvious, and possibly helped stave off a 1930's style depression. George Bush had to be convinced. I think leaders are tested by these events. Blair and Cameron, who would otherwise be good leaders, are forever tainted by Iraq and the Euroref respectively.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.0 -
You wanted her over leadsome didn't you,you got your wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
If May had any nous she'd ennoble Osborne and Cameron and let them run the country.williamglenn said:
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.
She's just not up to it.0 -
The fact that Corbyn has successfully consolidated his position while the Tories are in disarray does create a perhaps opportunity for a new centre-right party.TheScreamingEagles said:
We shall see. I'm going all General The Lord Kitchener on a few people.Andy_Cooke said:
Will it be called "Go Onwards!" ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm working on it.Slackbladder said:We really need a new centralist polictical party right about now...
Perhaps in a reversal of the sequence where Labour had the breakaway SDP before modernising, the Tories did the modernisation first and now they've hit the buffers it's time for a split.0 -
If the model was directing you toward people that were ex-Tories, that suggests you were probably in the right place (if still on to lose)? If the people running the model were expecting a 120+ seat landslide, you'd have been sent to people who had never been Tory before, such as these mythical Lab-UKIP-Tory switchers.david_herdson said:
We needed to contact both. We lost by 2100 votes, despite adding some 6000 votes on to our 2015 total, when we lost by 2600.IanB2 said:
They were swing voters in the sense of being non-Tories who *might* swing Tory, but in the event didn't.david_herdson said:
That's right.DavidL said:
There does seem to be evidence that the micro targeting using big data that was so effective in 2015 was a total disaster this time.SandraM said:I was interested in Carlotta Vance's link to the Conservative campaign in Brentford, especially the part that says that activists were told to concentrate on a list of 10,000 people who were presumed to be swing voters. This information turned out to be false.
Isn't this what David Herdson complained about in his now almost legendary post? He was given wrong information about where to campaign and wasted time campaigning among solid Labour voters.
But what is the chicken and what is the egg here? In 2015 the Tories had Cameron campaigning vigorously, doing his live debates with the public, looking every inch a leader in command of the agenda and on top of things. In 2017 the Tories had May, almost hiding away, reluctant to have any uncontrolled contact with the public (something all too painfully demonstrated again yesterday) and reluctant to commit herself on almost anything for consecutive days.
Campaigning, targeted or not, works when you have something you can really hope to sell and in 2017 the Tories just didn't. There was a residual fear of Corbyn that held their lead (just) but nothing positive at all.
Actually, the target voter information was very good, in my experience. The people we were contacting *were* the swing voters (and Con-identifiers to shore up). The problem was that in the last fortnight of the campaign, those swing voters were swinging to Labour.
The swing voters you needed to be contacting were those who were Tories, but might swing away.
But the people I was contacting on that election eve were people who *had* previously been identified as Tory. Ironically, on election day itself, when I was contacting the model-generated swing voters (plus pledges), it felt a little better - hence my revision in prediction to 'a small majority' (though that was only about as far out as my original Wednesday post of 'Con 300').0 -
A retreat to the base which bodes very ill for the Tories. They need to expand their demographically decaying core vote, not avoid confronting the public.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
@BBCEleanorG: The Prime Minister is going to visit the injured from the tower block fire in hospital this morning via @ChrisMasonBBC0
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She is to visit the victims in hospital today0
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After two years, and proving the point that he was a rotten PM unsuited to the role for the same character and interpersonal reasons that blighted Eden and May (and, to an extent, Heath).williamglenn said:
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.0 -
I am not sure that is a message that would resonate.rcs1000 said:
If you're only just managing to pay the mortgage when interest rates are 0.25%, then perhaps you shouldn't have borrowed so much money.SouthamObserver said:
If interest rates do go up that is going to hurt an awful lot of homeowners who are currently just about managing. Throw in a Brexit downturn on top and it will start to get very difficult indeed for the Tories.rottenborough said:Some interesting thoughts from Goodwin on Labour's message:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/875623361019170817
Will we see some capital flight once/if it becomes clear Corbyn will win next time?
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This notion that the Tories could have a cunning master plan to install Corbyn as Prime Minister in order to win power a month or two down the line is surely fanciful in the extreme.
Even if CCHQ see it as some 'wizard wheeze' Peter Wright types will view it as inherently dangerous.0 -
Leadsome would have been worse.Tykejohnno said:
You wanted her over leadsome didn't you,you got your wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
If May had any nous she'd ennoble Osborne and Cameron and let them run the country.williamglenn said:
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.
She's just not up to it.0 -
The public (thank God) is not twitter. Twitter is often poisonous.atia2 said:
A retreat to the base which bodes very ill for the Tories. They need to expand their demographically decaying core vote, not avoid confronting the public.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Agreed, it was the lesser of two evils (by a long way).TheScreamingEagles said:
Leadsome would have been worse.Tykejohnno said:
You wanted her over leadsome didn't you,you got your wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
If May had any nous she'd ennoble Osborne and Cameron and let them run the country.williamglenn said:
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.
She's just not up to it.0 -
Whilst it is true that many Scottish people are racist and will only vote for a Scottish leader of Lib Dems or other parties, it would be a mistake for Lib Dems to fish only in the Scotland pool. They have only just realised that it was a mistake to fish only in a pool of fanatical Remainers.
Lib Dems need to be attracting voters from mainstream Conservative and Labour parties. First they need to be clearer about what being liberal means and what it stands for, both being a social liberal and an economic liberal. They will lose some supporters when they do this but they have to go backwards first to ever go forwards.0 -
En Marche !David_Evershed said:Whilst it is true that many Scottish people are racist and will only vote for a Scottish leader of Lib Dems or other parties, it would be a mistake for Lib Dems to fish only in the Scotland pool. They have only just realised that it was a mistake to fish only in a pool of fanatical Remainers.
Lib Dems need to be attracting voters from mainstream Conservative and Labour parties. First they need to be clearer about what being liberal means and what it stands for, both being a social liberal and an economic liberal. They will lose some supporters when they do this but they have to go backwards first to ever go forwards.
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Sorry, but the best option was not on the ballot. Our EU membership was inflexible, unopen to reform and dogmatic. And the direction of future travel of the EU was clear: a one-way street to creating a federal Europe. Even some of the most strongest advocates for Remain, today (even Alastair Meeks and TSE) had their doubts at the time.FF43 said:
Me too. The difficulty I have is justifying even to myself is that the course I recommend, soft Brexit, is purely damage limitation. It's the least bad alternative to the best option that we rejected by ballot. I don't even think EEA membership is going to work for us.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm part of both of those "most people" groups.FF43 said:
We're currently in the strange situation where most people think Brexit was a mistake but most people think we should get on and do it.rottenborough said:
A certain amount of wishful thinking, but may well turn out to be right.TheScreamingEagles said:
I still think we'll collectively change our minds once the recession seriously kicks in.
There's nothing like a consensus to change course. If public opinion moves sharply against (and it might yet), a second referendum might become appropriate. But right now there's no case for anything other than implementing the referendum result.
I don't think people are fully in the damage limitation mode yet.
We can see, now, how the EU treat member states who wish to leave. Or even dissenting members who are staying. If they really wanted the UK to stay, now, they'd make it attractive for the UK to do so. Instead, if we did, the EU have made it very clear we'd need to chasten ourselves, and pay a heavy penalty for it.
The best option was an attempt to renegotiate the way the EU worked from the inside, and lock-in a semi-detached UK in a new treaty in the late 2010s, or early 2020s.
That probably would have failed, but if it had the UK could have left in a gradual manner lead by a UK PM advocating a soft exit in a planned and controlled way.
However, the gun was fired when it was fired and the decision had to be made.
The die is cast. We can't go back. We must see it through.0 -
Andy_Cooke said:
Will it be called "Go Onwards!" ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm working on it.Slackbladder said:We really need a new centralist polictical party right about now...
Why not En Marche?
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I'm not convinced by this at all. I expect she would have been up for a debate (and rather good at it considering her decent performance in the EU debates). Her lack of experience would no doubt have also demanded a more collegiate style than May's team which may have mitigated the risk of the manifesto disaster. I doubt she would have called an election at all - why chance your luck when you have had the amazing stroke of fortune to find yourself as the PM?TheScreamingEagles said:
Leadsome would have been worse.Tykejohnno said:
You wanted her over leadsome didn't you,you got your wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
If May had any nous she'd ennoble Osborne and Cameron and let them run the country.williamglenn said:
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.
She's just not up to it.
I am not saying she is particularly capable but strangely I think the last few months may have turned out much better.0 -
Antisocial, undoubtedly, but Brown (and Heath) were never impulsive in the way Eden and May were.david_herdson said:
After two years, and proving the point that he was a rotten PM unsuited to the role for the same character and interpersonal reasons that blighted Eden and May (and, to an extent, Heath).williamglenn said:
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.0 -
Feel free to fill the rest of it in......atia2 said:
Where's the rest of the table? Or is this another pretence that Jez iz worzt?CarlottaVance said:0 -
SouthamObserver said:
I think that's wishful thinking.Casino_Royale said:
They'll vote against a Hard Brexit with the support of the unions, their CLPs and members. But so will McDonnell and Corbyn if it is a Hard Brexit proposed by the Tories. Labour just needs to find a form of words at this stage. That changes if there is a new GE, of course.SouthamObserver said:
The MPs are Corbyn's new biggest fans. They didn't lift a finger when he was "campaigning" to Remain, nor when he had atrocious ratings in March/April.Casino_Royale said:
The MPs will only do as they are told if they get pressure from members, CLPs and the unions - none of which want the kind of Brexit McDonnell is talking about. McDonnell and Corbyn are fellow travellers, but pack different things in their suitcases; though I do agree that McDonnell is far brighter than his leader.SouthamObserver said:
The MPs will do what they're told.The_Apocalypse said:
It's is.SouthamObserver said:
McDonnell is starting to concern me more than ever, he needs to be reined in. The trouble is, I think he is just saying what Corbyn is really thinking.Essexit said:
If I first.SouthamObserver said:
A bit late to worry about that.NickPalmer said:
Nick -Icarus said:
Labour blockquote>SquareRoot said:
but Anna won despite all this. She a rather good remain MP. That's why she was re-elected.
Alternative Tories.
Anna
If McDonnell allows us the teeter towards a Hard Brexit, I'm seriously thinking that I may well end up voting LD again at the locals next year.
It third.
McDonnell is smarter, more aggressive and more dangerous.
Corbyn is simply a dogmatic ideological socialist, and not very bright.
Both are very experienced campaigners.
They will grumble at times, but do nothing.
Corbyn and McDonnell want a hard Brexit so they can enact their socialist programme.
The MPs will do as they're told.0 -
Mr 43,
"Brown made the correct call on the Credit Crunch, when it wasn't obvious, and possibly helped stave off a 1930's style depression."
That was Alastair Darling. According to his autobiography (yes, I know), he had to wake Brown up to tell him what the grown-ups had decided. To be fair, Brown was a micro-manager and one who unleashed the 'forces of hell' of Darling, so he'd be peering over the shoulders at all times.0 -
0
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Yes, she should have met them even if she was met with anger and jeers she should just said "I completely understand your anger and we shall get to the bottom of this".AlastairMeeks said:
I cannot imagine how the Prime Minister could have conceived the idea of not meeting the residents. She's the nation's leader: this was a shocking failure of leadership.JackW said:
In fairness Leadsom turned up and did her best in a very testing situation. Spoke to residents privately and on the streets.dyedwoolie said:Andrea Leadsom getting utterly pasted on Sky by residents. This is going to get out of hand.
Stark contrast to the Prime Minister.0 -
The leaflets write themselves for the ensuing election:Mexicanpete said:This notion that the Tories could have a cunning master plan to install Corbyn as Prime Minister in order to win power a month or two down the line is surely fanciful in the extreme.
Even if CCHQ see it as some 'wizard wheeze' Peter Wright types will view it as inherently dangerous.
"Well, if the Conservatives don't want to govern, we're prepared to do so" - for both Labour and the Lib Dems.
Lib Dem squeeze leaflets on identified Conservative voters "Only a vote for the Lib Dems can keep Labour out - the Conservatives will hand them power"
It'd be a real gift.0 -
I think that article is a little bit of wishful thinking by Spiegel. But that shouldn't distract from fabulous line in it: "If she weren't so incompetently cool and calculating, one could almost pity Theresa May"TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Good, sort of. But she will get her head kicked in and have no f*cking clue how to handle it whatsoever, other than parroting stupid lines and staring at her feet.Scott_P said:@BBCEleanorG: The Prime Minister is going to visit the injured from the tower block fire in hospital this morning via @ChrisMasonBBC
Can't she get some training?0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. W, lambasted if they turn up, lambasted if they don't.
Leadsome showed some steel. At these times the public want leadership and empathy. As for the first May has shown she has been found wanting and for the second she is bereft.marke09 said:
That interviewer was trying to stoke up the anti May sentiment kept on asking if she cares is she coming to meet themJackW said:
In fairness Leadsom turned up and did her best in a very testing situation. Spoke to residents privately and on the streets.dyedwoolie said:Andrea Leadsom getting utterly pasted on Sky by residents. This is going to get out of hand.
Stark contrast to the Prime Minister.
The Sky News interviewer put pertinent and very testing questions to Leadsom. Good. If the worst that ministers come of this is that they are made uncomfortable then it's a much more insignificant price than the victims and their relatives have had to suffer.0 -
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Damning with faint praise.Typo said:Christ - at least Leadsom has turned up and there is a face of the Government actually speaking to the people trying to deal with this.
Maybe the Tories should have picked her. She is flawed but she is quite evidently human.
This is the former Environment Secretary who asked "Is Climate Change real?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/climatechange/11957478/Is-climate-change-real-asks-energy-minister-Andrea-Leadsom.html
To be fair to her she was convinced.0 -
It would be interesting to see one of those for the effectiveness of the short campaign.CarlottaVance said:GE's since WWII:
https://twitter.com/chrisg0000/status/8756512748126945280 -
We will never know or will we ;-)TheScreamingEagles said:
Leadsome would have been worse.Tykejohnno said:
You wanted her over leadsome didn't you,you got your wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
If May had any nous she'd ennoble Osborne and Cameron and let them run the country.williamglenn said:
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.
She's just not up to it.0 -
Isn't she just as evangelical as Tim Farron?TheScreamingEagles said:
Leadsome would have been worse.Tykejohnno said:
You wanted her over leadsome didn't you,you got your wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
If May had any nous she'd ennoble Osborne and Cameron and let them run the country.williamglenn said:
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.
She's just not up to it.0 -
Khan got ambushed but handled it well.nunuone said:
Yes, she should have met them even if she was met with anger and jeers she should just said "I completely understand your anger and we shall get to the bottom of this".AlastairMeeks said:
I cannot imagine how the Prime Minister could have conceived the idea of not meeting the residents. She's the nation's leader: this was a shocking failure of leadership.JackW said:
In fairness Leadsom turned up and did her best in a very testing situation. Spoke to residents privately and on the streets.dyedwoolie said:Andrea Leadsom getting utterly pasted on Sky by residents. This is going to get out of hand.
Stark contrast to the Prime Minister.0 -
LOL just looked back at that comment (super busy atm) and realised that it was half a comment and I hadn't finished it. I was going to say something like he has done a lot for business but couldn't be bothered then forgot to delete it. Then replied to something else.Theuniondivvie said:
Second only to Nuttall of course.TOPPING said:
As you well know he has done more for British business than almost anyone elseFF43 said:
Prince Andrew with his impeccable sense of timing piles all-in, just at the point when the wheels are falling off the Brexit wagonRoger said:
Re-connecting with his spiritual home. Grimsby.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Very pro Brexit speech in Singapore overnight extolling the virtues of the wider market over the garden fence of the 27Tykejohnno said:What's has prince Andrew done to upset the remain in the EU side ;-)
You know how it is...0 -
Have you read Mr Balfour's Poodle? It starts with a wonderful description of how the Conservatives allowed Asquith to become PM in 1905 (while the Conservatives were the majority party in the Commons), in what what was considered at the time a tactical masterstroke.david_herdson said:
I agree that he'd have to have the chance to enact his major policies, particularly the tax-and-spend ones. The Tories would have to abstain, precisely on the grounds that 'Labour needs to be given a chance to prove itself'. Only policies that could only be undone with extreme difficulty, if at all, need be blocked.OblitusSumMe said:
Would the public not be quite critical of such game-playing from the Conservatives?david_herdson said:From a purely tactical point of view, that is one very good reason to let Corbyn have a go now. The choice is not Lab or not Lab. The choice is Lab now or Lab later. Lab now - with an unviable coalition in parliament and a Con majority capable of blocking a new election and any legislation that would have permanently damaging effects, and able to bring Lab down at a time of its choosing - is the better option for the country.
Give him a year, let him fail and then go back to the country.
If you put Corbyn in office, but then block him from enacting the policies in his manifesto and stop him from calling an election to secure a mandate from the electorate, you would look like a cat toying with a mouse.
Ideally, the move should already have been made, but a breakdown in the DUP deal would serve as excuse. "We have failed to reach a position where we can be confident of the support of a majority in parliament for our programme. As such, we believe it is better to go into opposition than have our policies and legislation voted down piece by piece".
Of course, the next year the Liberals managed one of the greatest landslides in British political history.0 -
The Queen and Duke of Cambridge at the Grenfell Towers area.0
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The Group in the best position to analyse what went wrong at Grenfell tower and most motivated to ensure the same thing does not happen again are the Fire Brigade.
They will not be waiting for a public inquiry.
Expect action from the Fire Brigade in the next few weeks.0 -
Unlike you, Roger, to fundamentally misunderestimate a British satire.Roger said:
They had the combined IQ of a chocolate button.TOPPING said:
As you well know he has done more for British business than almost anyone elseFF43 said:
Prince Andrew with his impeccable sense of timing piles all-in, just at the point when the wheels are falling off the Brexit wagonRoger said:
Re-connecting with his spiritual home. Grimsby.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Very pro Brexit speech in Singapore overnight extolling the virtues of the wider market over the garden fence of the 27Tykejohnno said:What's has prince Andrew done to upset the remain in the EU side ;-)
The characters in Grimsby were thoughtful, sensitive and generous.Roger said:
You'd have to have seen the film. Grimsby is Brexit centralBig_G_NorthWales said:
I don't quite get the point in that comment Roger - am I missing somethingRoger said:
Re-connecting with his spiritual home. Grimsby.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Very pro Brexit speech in Singapore overnight extolling the virtues of the wider market over the garden fence of the 27Tykejohnno said:What's has prince Andrew done to upset the remain in the EU side ;-)
That what you mean?0 -
HMQ now at Grenfell.0
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That ultimately killed the Liberals. So maybe it was a strategic masterstroke.rcs1000 said:
Have you read Mr Balfour's Poodle? It starts with a wonderful description of how the Conservatives allowed Asquith to become PM in 1905 (while the Conservatives were the majority party in the Commons), in what what was considered at the time a tactical masterstroke.david_herdson said:
I agree that he'd have to have the chance to enact his major policies, particularly the tax-and-spend ones. The Tories would have to abstain, precisely on the grounds that 'Labour needs to be given a chance to prove itself'. Only policies that could only be undone with extreme difficulty, if at all, need be blocked.OblitusSumMe said:
Would the public not be quite critical of such game-playing from the Conservatives?david_herdson said:From a purely tactical point of view, that is one very good reason to let Corbyn have a go now. The choice is not Lab or not Lab. The choice is Lab now or Lab later. Lab now - with an unviable coalition in parliament and a Con majority capable of blocking a new election and any legislation that would have permanently damaging effects, and able to bring Lab down at a time of its choosing - is the better option for the country.
Give him a year, let him fail and then go back to the country.
If you put Corbyn in office, but then block him from enacting the policies in his manifesto and stop him from calling an election to secure a mandate from the electorate, you would look like a cat toying with a mouse.
Ideally, the move should already have been made, but a breakdown in the DUP deal would serve as excuse. "We have failed to reach a position where we can be confident of the support of a majority in parliament for our programme. As such, we believe it is better to go into opposition than have our policies and legislation voted down piece by piece".
Of course, the next year the Liberals managed one of the greatest landslides in British political history.0 -
"Don't politicise this!" - Angry mobScott_P said:0 -
No worries,it looks like we will have a corbyn government.logical_song said:
Agreed, it was the lesser of two evils (by a long way).TheScreamingEagles said:
Leadsome would have been worse.Tykejohnno said:
You wanted her over leadsome didn't you,you got your wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
If May had any nous she'd ennoble Osborne and Cameron and let them run the country.williamglenn said:
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.
She's just not up to it.0 -
2009 - that pre-dates the renovations ?Scott_P said:0 -
when even the Queen is more in touch with the common people than the PM, the PM has issues.JackW said:The Queen and Duke of Cambridge at the Grenfell Towers area.
0 -
We need a thread on Ben Lauderdale's entry poll:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/britain-election-yougov-model-idUKL8N1IX2H7
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/the-day-after/0 -
The putative leader would have an initial problem with that.David_Evershed said:Andy_Cooke said:
Will it be called "Go Onwards!" ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm working on it.Slackbladder said:We really need a new centralist polictical party right about now...
Why not En Marche?
0 -
'Twas on the podcast.Casino_Royale said:We need a thread on Ben Lauderdale's entry poll:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/britain-election-yougov-model-idUKL8N1IX2H70 -
E M were the initials of the young ex-Finance Minister centrist who'd stepped down from the government and set up the new party/movement, and the name was chosen to fit the initials.David_Evershed said:Andy_Cooke said:
Will it be called "Go Onwards!" ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm working on it.Slackbladder said:We really need a new centralist polictical party right about now...
Why not En Marche?
I wonder which young ex-Finance Minister Eagles might have in mind and what the initials should be...0 -
Dropping the ball is one thing, handing it over to your opponent is another, relinquishing power means relinquishing control, even if as appears at the moment circumstances are out of control.Andy_Cooke said:
The leaflets write themselves for the ensuing election:Mexicanpete said:This notion that the Tories could have a cunning master plan to install Corbyn as Prime Minister in order to win power a month or two down the line is surely fanciful in the extreme.
Even if CCHQ see it as some 'wizard wheeze' Peter Wright types will view it as inherently dangerous.
"Well, if the Conservatives don't want to govern, we're prepared to do so" - for both Labour and the Lib Dems.
Lib Dem squeeze leaflets on identified Conservative voters "Only a vote for the Lib Dems can keep Labour out - the Conservatives will hand them power"
It'd be a real gift.0 -
Send for Ed Miliband.AlastairMeeks said:
The putative leader would have an initial problem with that.David_Evershed said:Andy_Cooke said:
Will it be called "Go Onwards!" ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm working on it.Slackbladder said:We really need a new centralist polictical party right about now...
Why not En Marche?0 -
@Daniel_Sugarman
Here follows a quick thread on the proposal that some of the empty homes in Kensington should be seized to house the homeless from the fire
(1) This idea is catnip to some people. It sounds so good. "How can any1 decent oppose the rehousing of those affected? The houses r empty!"
2) To the people who say it's against the law, others bring up the concept of Compulsory Purchase Orders (CPOs), which are used by councils
3) Except that these are among the most expensive properties in Britain. Even at CPO rates, we're talking hundreds of millions of pounds
4) Oh, & owners (wherever they are) must be notified, & there's a notice period (by law) of a few weeks in which they can make objections
5) That's the law. You can talk about changing that law, sure. But in the meantime, that's the law.
6) "But what about all the cases where poor people are taken advantage of by councils via CPO b/c they don't have access to legal counsel?"
7) Yes, that is DESPICABLE. But that's the point. You're talking about taking houses from people who have very, very good lawyers
8) And when all this has died down, & Corbyn, Lammy, Harman etc go away, the lawyers are still there. And they'll sue the council. And win
9) The council will lose millions in civil suits, and who will suffer then? Not the rich, but the poor who need council services desperately
10) It would cost the council a million times less to house all those affected in a Hotel & pay for it, than it would to take those houses
11) There's no way Corbyn et al don't know all this. Notice, they aren't suggesting brand new legislation to change these laws
13) And given that the government has already committed to rehousing all those affected by the fire, what we actually have is Corbyn et al
14) Using this tragedy & very real distress of those affected to try & suggest something which makes them look good & opponents heartless...
15) But which, further down the line, would further devastate the lives of those they claim to care about so deeply.
0 -
0
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How about NF?!AlastairMeeks said:
The putative leader would have an initial problem with that.David_Evershed said:Andy_Cooke said:
Will it be called "Go Onwards!" ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm working on it.Slackbladder said:We really need a new centralist polictical party right about now...
Why not En Marche?
0 -
People do seem to be forgetting that the landlord of the tower block is an organisation that is basically run by the tenants themselves and they made the decision to clad the building in this material. It seems odd to me that people are demading tha Theresa May turn up and get shouted at, but there is no demand for board of the managing organisation to answer questions from the residents. If this block had not been modernised that the fire would have been contained in one flat. People always talk about lack of resources but if this block had not had £10 million spent on it then this fire would not have happened.Scott_P said:
0 -
The thing is, those people *did* exist. It's one reason why I felt so conflicted as to what was going on late on in the campaign. Votes were going in a lot of directions, both from May 2015 and from April 2017. For example, the Con vote in Wakefield:IanB2 said:
If the model was directing you toward people that were ex-Tories, that suggests you were probably in the right place (if still on to lose)? If the people running the model were expecting a 120+ seat landslide, you'd have been sent to people who had never been Tory before, such as these mythical Lab-UKIP-Tory switchers.david_herdson said:
We needed to contact both. We lost by 2100 votes, despite adding some 6000 votes on to our 2015 total, when we lost by 2600.IanB2 said:
They were swing voters in the sense of being non-Tories who *might* swing Tory, but in the event didn't.david_herdson said:
That's right.DavidL said:There does seem to be evidence that the micro targeting using big data that was so effective in 2015 was a total disaster this time.
But what is the chicken and what is the egg here? In 2015 the Tories had Cameron campaigning vigorously, doing his live debates with the public, looking every inch a leader in command of the agenda and on top of things. In 2017 the Tories had May, almost hiding away, reluctant to have any uncontrolled contact with the public (something all too painfully demonstrated again yesterday) and reluctant to commit herself on almost anything for consecutive days.
Campaigning, targeted or not, works when you have something you can really hope to sell and in 2017 the Tories just didn't. There was a residual fear of Corbyn that held their lead (just) but nothing positive at all.
Actually, the target voter information was very good, in my experience. The people we were contacting *were* the swing voters (and Con-identifiers to shore up). The problem was that in the last fortnight of the campaign, those swing voters were swinging to Labour.
The swing voters you needed to be contacting were those who were Tories, but might swing away.
But the people I was contacting on that election eve were people who *had* previously been identified as Tory. Ironically, on election day itself, when I was contacting the model-generated swing voters (plus pledges), it felt a little better - hence my revision in prediction to 'a small majority' (though that was only about as far out as my original Wednesday post of 'Con 300').
1997 - 14373
2001 - 12638
2005 - 13648
2010 - 15841
2015 - 14688
2017 - 20811
or in Hemsworth
1997 - 8096
2001 - 7400
2005 - 8149
2010 - 10662
2015 - 9694
2017 - 15566
We *did* get out a lot of new people to back the Tories. But two months before the election, even more would have done so.0 -
Has Andrea Leadsom given herself a shot at replacing Theresa May this morning?0
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I need him to take over the reins of the Labour party from Jeremy Corbyn at the appropriate moment.williamglenn said:
Send for Ed Miliband.AlastairMeeks said:
The putative leader would have an initial problem with that.David_Evershed said:Andy_Cooke said:
Will it be called "Go Onwards!" ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm working on it.Slackbladder said:We really need a new centralist polictical party right about now...
Why not En Marche?0 -
Hubris and believing his own hype.Bobajob_PB said:
Going to be a wild trip. But short.0 -
One has the common touch, the other appears too posh!Slackbladder said:
when even the Queen is more in touch with the common people than the PM, the PM has issues.JackW said:The Queen and Duke of Cambridge at the Grenfell Towers area.
0 -
I said yesterday that HMQ would go to the tower and show Theresa how its done...Slackbladder said:
when even the Queen is more in touch with the common people than the PM, the PM has issues.JackW said:The Queen and Duke of Cambridge at the Grenfell Towers area.
0 -
18,865 Tories in Bosworth !david_herdson said:
The thing is, those people *did* exist. It's one reason why I felt so conflicted as to what was going on late on in the campaign. Votes were going in a lot of directions, both from May 2015 and from April 2017. For example, the Con vote in Wakefield:
1997 - 14373
2001 - 12638
2005 - 13648
2010 - 15841
2015 - 14688
2017 - 20811
or in Hemsworth
1997 - 8096
2001 - 7400
2005 - 8149
2010 - 10662
2015 - 9694
2017 - 15566
We *did* get out a lot of new people to back the Tories. But two months before the election, even more would have done so.0 -
The Queen and Prince William have now also appeared...to meet victims.0
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On that we can all agree!TheScreamingEagles said:
Leadsome would have been worse.Tykejohnno said:
You wanted her over leadsome didn't you,you got your wish.TheScreamingEagles said:
If May had any nous she'd ennoble Osborne and Cameron and let them run the country.williamglenn said:
Brown biggest mistakes come from his time as Chancellor. He may have been unsuited to the role of PM, but he did tacitly recognise this and the way he brought back Mandelson to run the government for him is to his credit.david_herdson said:
It's unfair to leave Brown out of the trio.FF43 said:I was reading up on Anthony Eden and was struck with some parallels between him and Theresa May. Both antisocial. Both anxious to have the appearance of being tough. Both seen as cautious safe pairs of hands who became impulsive and took reckless gambles with disastrous consequences.
And, of course, they were the two worst British Prime Ministers since the Second World War.
She's just not up to it.
The good news from the Tories is that we have probably reached peak Corbyn - the boost he receives from the election will likely be temporary, and every new recruit to his crusade will be balanced by someone who only voted for their local MP on a promise Corbyn couldn't win, or feared a landslide majority (fox hunting etc), or was pushed towards Labour solely by May being so unappealing.
The bad news for the Tories is that the vote they retained remains very vulnerable to desertions to all parties other than Labour, as and when things continue to deteriorate for the government.
0
