politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: GE17 debrief. Breaking down

System · June 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: GE17 debrief. Breaking down the YouGov model & focus on Northern Ireland

This week’s podcast is split into two parts.

Read the full story here

surbiton · June 2017

First like Corbyn [ you know what I mean ]

RobD · June 2017

Second!

Scott_P · June 2017

I win! (like Corbyn...)

rcs1000 · June 2017

HYUFD said:

Andy_Cooke said:
On Cable's age: as noted by Alastair Meeks in the post earlier today, we have to assume that this Parliament will run the distance. At the very least, there's a highly significant probability that it will.

Which means Cable will be 79 when the election happens. Assuming he stands in the election, he's signing up to be an MP (at least) until age 84.

I don't want to be ageist, but there comes a time when it doesn't look feasible.
Gladstone, who in some respects Cable resembles, was Liberal leader and PM until 84

Is that because he roams the streets at night trying to reform fallen women?

bigjohnowls · June 2017

Did someone mention Corbyn?

bigjohnowls · June 2017

I like Vince

Pulpstar · June 2017

bigjohnowls said:
I like Vince

HYUFD · June 2017

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Andy_Cooke said:
On Cable's age: as noted by Alastair Meeks in the post earlier today, we have to assume that this Parliament will run the distance. At the very least, there's a highly significant probability that it will.

Which means Cable will be 79 when the election happens. Assuming he stands in the election, he's signing up to be an MP (at least) until age 84.

I don't want to be ageist, but there comes a time when it doesn't look feasible.
Gladstone, who in some respects Cable resembles, was Liberal leader and PM until 84
Is that because he roams the streets at night trying to reform fallen women?

I think the most dangerous thing Cable has done is Strictly

Scott_P · June 2017

https://twitter.com/journostephen/status/875092047065223173

HaroldO · June 2017

Gladstone went on for so long because he had an iron rod of faith going right through him, his belief in God meant he couldn't give up politics as that would be thumbing his nose at the all mighty whom had given him this job to do.

surbiton · June 2017

Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

macisback · June 2017

bigjohnowls said:
Did someone mention Corbyn?

Yes the opportunistic wanker. The authorities haven't yet found all the dead, let alone the cause and this pillock wants to play politics. At least have a pause, show some decency.

MaxPB · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.

Artist · June 2017

The polling for London/Wales/Scotland was again relatively close to the result, it seems different areas of Britain are too diverse politically for single national polls to sufficiently detect what is going on as a whole.

foxinsoxuk · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

I did tip SLAB for Glasgow, to benefit from the ebbing of SNP support, and as a place where Corbynism may prosper. I won one, with several others only scraping home for the SNP.
I also said that Lamb was safe, and forecast a net rise in LD seats.

My anecdata was supportive of Labour and I did write on the 7th that while the number of seats for a Lab majority were implausible, a hung parliament was not too tall an order.

I did get herded to predict a Con majority of 76. Like over Brexit, I sensed what was coming, but didn't have the courage of my convictions.

Big_G_NorthWales · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

I said it would be a hung Parliament at 8.00pm on election evening

surbiton · June 2017

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.

BJO did come back and said that there had been a sea-change. But even he dare not believe that the Tories would not win an absolute majority. I think in the end he was saying it would be about 70.

rkrkrk · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

Part of me thought Labour might outperform expectations but I put it down to wishful thinking and bet on a landslide Tory win. I do think people were over relying on polls and underestimating a chance of hung parliament and massive Tory majority.

Nigelb · June 2017

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Andy_Cooke said:
On Cable's age: as noted by Alastair Meeks in the post earlier today, we have to assume that this Parliament will run the distance. At the very least, there's a highly significant probability that it will.

Which means Cable will be 79 when the election happens. Assuming he stands in the election, he's signing up to be an MP (at least) until age 84.

I don't want to be ageist, but there comes a time when it doesn't look feasible.
Gladstone, who in some respects Cable resembles, was Liberal leader and PM until 84
Is that because he roams the streets at night trying to reform fallen women?

Well I don't think he's ever given any five hour speeches, so that must be it.

isam · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

I wrote a thread arguing that pollsters should skew their results towards the politically disinterested, but Mike knocked it back

Apparently YouGov were the pollsters that did that, although I cant say for certain if that is true

Alistair · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

Shy Labour voters.

Look at the HuffPost non headline figures.

Over the campaign Don't Knows broke almost exclusively for Labour. People who had spent the last 2 years bad mouthing Corbyn voted for him on election day and then probably immediately started bad mouthing him as soon as they stepped out of the voting booth.

The Headline poll figures were hugely misleading.

Alice_Aforethought · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

Each of us lives in one constituency. I accurately predicted that Labour could not take any London constituency in which Jews live.

Nothing else that I envisaged then happened, but I was right about where I live. Food for thought.

MaxPB · June 2017

surbiton said:

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.
BJO did come back and said that there had been a sea-change. But even he dare not believe that the Tories would not win an absolute majority. I think in the end he was saying it would be about 70.

Yes, that was the key night for our failure. We attacked property rights and had absolutely nothing positive on offer. Our campaign was set on shitting on our base to chase Blue Labour and not being Corbyn. It almost got us over the line, but it was absolutely awful.

We should have offered £350m per week for the NHS and had Boris driving around a bus all over the country with that written all over it.

surbiton · June 2017

Artist said:
The polling for London/Wales/Scotland was again relatively close to the result, it seems different areas of Britain are too diverse politically for single national polls to sufficiently detect what is going on as a whole.

The differential swings were quite remarkable. How do we rationalise Walsall North ? Other seats in the region did not quite behave like that, Crewe, for example, normally goes Labour when Labour wins, this time did. So went Stroud.

This time it was a Horlicks. However, YouGov modelling has to be praised. For accuracy and guts !!!

Alistair · June 2017

As for Scotland, the SNP underperformed their polling badly. If I thought they were going to score under 40% I would have been sounding the klaxon big time.

Tykejohnno · June 2017

https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/875096287875563522

MaxPB · June 2017

Alistair said:
As for Scotland, the SNP underperformed their polling badly. If I thought they were going to score under 40% I would have been sounding the klaxon big time.

I think Scotland was the only country where there is still a Shy Tory effect. We didn't see it anywhere else.

valleyboy · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

I did post 3weeks before the election to get on Labour at Gower. I hope a few did at 6/1. I also said in a separate post that Cardiff N was in play.
Canvassing down West the weekend before showed a real enthusiasm amongst labour voters that I had not seen since 1997. I think I also mentioned this
Thing is, most have got me on ignore.

Big_G_NorthWales · June 2017

macisback said:

bigjohnowls said:
Did someone mention Corbyn?
Yes the opportunistic wanker. The authorities haven't yet found all the dead, let alone the cause and this pillock wants to play politics. At least have a pause, show some decency.

The sad thing is Corbyn cannot help himself

As the tragic events have unfolded throughout the day the experts are pointing to the newly installed external cladding creating a ferocious outside fire that engulfed the whole building. This after the building had received full building regs and fire brigade approval in late 2016.

Experts have also stated that sprinklers would have made no difference

There are similarities to the external cladding on the Dubai sky scrapper and other buildings that have used this external covering and had catastrosphic fires

Everyone needs to give the Authorities the time to find out the cause and in the meantime say a prayer for all those who have suffered the most dreadful day of their lives

Richard_Nabavi · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results
....

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

I can't speak for anyone else, but as a punter an investor in the political betting markets, I picked up mixed signals. As a result, in the latter stages of the campaign my betting strategy was to try to find value on Labour in various seats (especially in Scotland) to offset my earlier bets which had been focused on possible Con gains from Labour in Kipperish seats. The bets in which I had most confidence were those on a highish turnout, a poorish LibDem tally, and on the number of female MPs being around the same or higher than in 2015.

On the main Con/Lab battle, I was completely confused by the end, so I closed my spread bets. My central forecast was a big but not overwhelming Con majority, but I wasn't confident of it.

alex. · June 2017

Don't forget the Tory vote went up by 6%. It's not perhaps surprising if Conservative activists were blindsided. And Labour activists might have assumed that any signs they were picking up would have been offset by disaster elsewhere.

surbiton · June 2017

Alice_Aforethought said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
Each of us lives in one constituency. I accurately predicted that Labour could not take any London constituency in which Jews live.

Nothing else that I envisaged then happened, but I was right about where I live. Food for thought.

True. Noticeably, the four stood out - some very precariously. Did anyone believe Ealing Acton would have a majority of 13,000 ? Hampstead 16000 ?

I remember some rather excitable LibDems were talking about Bermondsey going yellow. I did say though the Labour majority would be over 10000. Kingston and Surbiton also went yellow comfortably.

And, what about the UKIP capital city, Lincoln ?

Let's face it, collectively, we failed miserably across all political opinions.

Freggles · June 2017

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.

More of a reply to surbiton, but for this election even the parties missed it. Unless you have a huge dataset like YouGov, you didn't stand a chance.

Tykejohnno · June 2017

https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355

MarkSenior · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

For the 3rd GE in a row I did my personal survey of the 160 or so voters in my street of 96 properties . Not big or wide enough to forecast a national result with any accuracy but it was good enough for me to give a decent forecast of 340 Con MPs lower than most .
Note as usual the response rate was almost 100% , the voters fill in a secret mock ballot paper .

glw · June 2017

MaxPB said:
The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.

This site isn't too good at predicting outcomes* but the instant judgement of events is often spot on. Ed being elected leader, a loser. Corbyn on the ballot, uh oh could be trouble. Tory manifesto, what the hell are they up to. So we can read the runes but not work out what they foretell.

* To be fair nobody is, as forecasting in general is awful across essentially all fields.

isam · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

I did also say that Labour should be odds on in Dagenham, just based on local knowledge, although I ended up having £300 at 33/1 UKIP!

I wasn't canvassing though, and lost money on the election, so what do I know?

another_richard · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

You're London Labour - shouldn't you be asking your colleagues that ?

Right until the end they were campaigning defensively.

The odds being offered on Labour in London were ridiculously long based on the local demographics.

Pulpstar · June 2017

I remember the weekend the Tory manifesto was released, the whole dementia tax saga exploding. I had a raft of constituency bets against Labour at the time and had rather greedily plonked about 800 quid on the Tories in the Vale of Clwyd and the Gower when that first Welsh poll came out.
I changed tack after that and sought value on Labour, and against the Lib Dems and SNP. I just prayed the Tory malaise didn't spread to Scotland !
In the end Ynys Mons, East Lothian and Leeds NW were all Labour bets at stupid prices well won - which paid and then some for the daft Tory gets in the Gower and so forth.
The exit poll was better for my pocket than I first realised I think.

MaxPB · June 2017

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355

Hoping that one of them does what that crazy guy did in the US today, I gather.

Tykejohnno · June 2017

https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/875096773001441284

https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/874894288462761984

surbiton · June 2017

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/875096287875563522

Why ? He managed a comfortable middle position ?

oxfordsimon · June 2017

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355

Force? They really want to use the language of violence in all of this?

Really not acceptable. Not acceptable at all.

HaroldO · June 2017

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355

Old man number two is in an even bigger hurry, we've had an election last week that May (technically) won. It wasn't a clear result, but it's there for now.
Going hard on the anti-democracy ticket is a brave move after that.

Scott_P · June 2017

https://twitter.com/newstatesman/status/875097264053792768

Pulpstar · June 2017

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355

Labour might be overplaying their hand here.

glw · June 2017

MaxPB said:
We should have offered £350m per week for the NHS and had Boris driving around a bus all over the country with that written all over it.

That's such an obvious thing to do, and easily delivered if you let inflation do a lot of the heavy lifting, that I'm still baffled no party has done it. It's a free boost in the polls for anybody who wants it.

alex. · June 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:

macisback said:

bigjohnowls said:
Did someone mention Corbyn?
Yes the opportunistic wanker. The authorities haven't yet found all the dead, let alone the cause and this pillock wants to play politics. At least have a pause, show some decency.
The sad thing is Corbyn cannot help himself

As the tragic events have unfolded throughout the day the experts are pointing to the newly installed external cladding creating a ferocious outside fire that engulfed the whole building. This after the building had received full building regs and fire brigade approval in late 2016.

Experts have also stated that sprinklers would have made no difference

There are similarities to the external cladding on the Dubai sky scrapper and other buildings that have used this external covering and had catastrosphic fires

Everyone needs to give the Authorities the time to find out the cause and in the meantime say a prayer for all those who have suffered the most dreadful day of their lives

Also there's a bit of ignorance about how Council housing is financed i.e. by rents not by the taxpayer. If Council housing expenditure is being held down it is either because of financial mismanagement (i.e. NOT cuts) or because rents are being kept artificially low (e.g. The last Govt imposed a programme of 1% a year reductions for 4 years). But see if you can find any Labour politician complaint about that...

another_richard · June 2017

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.

The exemption of Scotland from the WFA cuts was a cattle-prod-up-the-arse moment for me.

I knew that was a serious mistake and would cost votes.

Likewise the Conservatives made numerous other mistakes and all the lost votes added up.

oxfordsimon · June 2017

Pulpstar said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355
Labour might be overplaying their hand here.

They have been doing that since Friday afternoon.

But the media aren't interested. For now.

glw · June 2017

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355

Does he realise they are outnumbered or is he having trouble counting like other Labour figures?

Scott_P · June 2017

Somebody was asking for this last night

@AndrewCooper__: Pre-referendum, only 23% thought Leave vote would mean UK leaving EU & the single market. 50% thought we'd leave EU & stay in single market

@AndrewCooper__: @DAaronovitch Research during the referendum found most voters definitely didn't think we'd be outside the single market; thought it was 'project fear'.

@AndrewCooper__: @DAaronovitch Focus groups said over & again "they need us more than we need them". Many felt this meant EU would have to let us stay in single market.

@AndrewCooper__: @DAaronovitch Many voters rejected out of hand the whole idea that the UK might face trade-offs such as single market vs. control of free movement.

Tykejohnno · June 2017

HAMMY PULLS BREXIT STRINGS Chancellor and other top Tories urge Theresa May to put jobs before immigration in talks

Chancellor Philip Hammond joined forces with Home Secretary Amber Rudd to demand the weakened PM prioritise jobs over tough immigration control

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3802303/chancellor-and-other-top-tories-urge-theresa-may-to-put-jobs-before-immigration-in-talks/

Big_G_NorthWales · June 2017

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355

Well that is going to help labour no end

HaroldO · June 2017

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.
The exemption of Scotland from the WFA cuts was a cattle-prod-up-the-arse moment for me.

I knew that was a serious mistake and would cost votes.

Likewise the Conservatives made numerous other mistakes and all the lost votes added up.

Another poster made a good point that you should never deliberately make enemies, accidentally or when you have to yes but never aim to make them. May kept going out of her way to make them, from day one.

Richard_Nabavi · June 2017

oxfordsimon said:

Pulpstar said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355
Labour might be overplaying their hand here.
They have been doing that since Friday afternoon.

But the media aren't interested. For now.

Yeah, no-one is going to notice.

another_richard · June 2017

Pulpstar said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355
Labour might be overplaying their hand here.

I'd say it would be guaranteed to solidify Conservative support.

And the imagery will remind many oldies about the worst features of the 1970s and 1980s.

Pulpstar · June 2017

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.
The exemption of Scotland from the WFA cuts was a cattle-prod-up-the-arse moment for me.

I knew that was a serious mistake and would cost votes.

Likewise the Conservatives made numerous other mistakes and all the lost votes added up.

I think May probably had about 15 million votes at one point.

HaroldO · June 2017

Pulpstar said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355
Labour might be overplaying their hand here.

They don't want to go back to the day job in case they that lovely campaigning feeling, it's like coming back from a festival to work on a tuesday.

Y0kel · June 2017

oxfordsimon said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355
Force? They really want to use the language of violence in all of this?

Really not acceptable. Not acceptable at all.

No no, lets see them try it.

atia2 · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

I always felt that Brexit would be a huge confounder in this election and anyone backing Con maj at 1.0x needed their head examined. I backed and tipped NOM to my friends, which I then unwound in the final week when I started reading this forum. My friends wisely stayed on and made a killing. I made a killing instead on a variety of constituency bets (including Kensington) and some fast finger work in the Exchange.

So, in short, I started out a big skeptic of the Con landslide and ended up a small skeptic after reading PB. I still made a couple of months salary.

HaroldO · June 2017

oxfordsimon said:

Pulpstar said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355
Labour might be overplaying their hand here.
They have been doing that since Friday afternoon.

But the media aren't interested. For now.

They are starting to be, on twitter anyway. But with so much other stuff going on it is being slightly subsumed into other stories. Here it is blatant so cannot be.

MaxPB · June 2017

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.
The exemption of Scotland from the WFA cuts was a cattle-prod-up-the-arse moment for me.

I knew that was a serious mistake and would cost votes.

Likewise the Conservatives made numerous other mistakes and all the lost votes added up.
I think May probably had about 15 million votes at one point.

Yes, then she and her shitty advisors threw it all away. For nothing. I'm still extremely bitter about it all.

oxfordsimon · June 2017

Richard_Nabavi said:

oxfordsimon said:

Pulpstar said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355
Labour might be overplaying their hand here.
They have been doing that since Friday afternoon.

But the media aren't interested. For now.
Yeah, no-one is going to notice.

Oh, they are noticing - but it doesn't fit the narrative that people want to create.

Ordinarily a Shadow Chancellor who has just failed to be part of an election-winning cabinet calling for civil unrest would be cause for alarm in all quarters. Can't win through the ballot boxes so just take the to the street - that is dangerous talk. But I would be amazed if this rates much comment.

glw · June 2017

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well that is going to help labour no end

This is why I'm quite relaxed about the election result. Labour are stuck with Corbyn and McDonnell and they are poison, they will do more harm than good to the Labour Party in the long term.

MarqueeMark · June 2017

On not getting the result right, it was very local. We had a far better result for the blues in Torbay than I dared to dream - would have been happy with an 8k majority, in the end it was nearly twice that. The Dementia Tax should have played badly in Torquay if it was going to play badly anywhere - but it was not changing votes.

I said that the LibDems' tactical vote was unwinding back to Labour; and that Labour voters were loud and proud this time. But it would have been impossible to discern the national result from the SW. Even Plymouth Moor View was safe, because of a very strong local candidate, whose seat really should have fallen if Labour were going to advance as they did.

Tykejohnno · June 2017

Love it ;-)

https://twitter.com/officiaIwinemom/status/874702862730833921

another_richard · June 2017

Pulpstar said:

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.
The exemption of Scotland from the WFA cuts was a cattle-prod-up-the-arse moment for me.

I knew that was a serious mistake and would cost votes.

Likewise the Conservatives made numerous other mistakes and all the lost votes added up.
I think May probably had about 15 million votes at one point.

Indeed.

Richard_Nabavi · June 2017

Labour's position is very odd, and I think a serious misjudgement. I'd have thought that the correct response to the election result should be the the honest one: "We didn't win, but we did much better than anyone expected and we made progress under Jeremy's leadership. Now we need to stay united and build on that progress, but we've got a long way to go'. Instead they seem to be tending towards arrogance.

Long may they continue to do so!

MarqueeMark · June 2017

glw said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well that is going to help labour no end
This is why I'm quite relaxed about the election result. Labour are stuck with Corbyn and McDonnell and they are poison, they will do more harm than good to the Labour Party in the long term.

It will be interesting to get some feedback/polling on just how many people voted Labour in 2017 because the Tories were just BOUND to get a huge majority, so like in a by-election, they had a free shot at Bishop Brennan's arse.....

Alistair · June 2017

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355

Fuck off you Trotskyite twat.

Charles · June 2017

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355

Presumably that sort of statement from a senior politician is breaking some kind of law?

I'm assuming that inciting the overthrow of a democratically elected government is somehow against the rules?

glw · June 2017

Charles said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355
Presumably that sort of statement from a senior politician is breaking some kind of law?

I'm assuming that inciting the overthrow of a democratically elected government is somehow against the rules?

MI5 weren't monitoring them for fun.

viewcode · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

If I had a pound for every time I tried to answer a polemic dressed up as a nominally serious question on PB I'd have...(thinks furiously)...very approx £20. So dragging my weary arse towards your question like Charlie Brown to the football one more bloody time, let's try to answer this.

Q1) "Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?"

A1) Yes, or thereabouts. Most people in the real world who bet on politics do so as an affirmation of support for their party or to win an argument. Thankfully there are some (not enough!) gamblers and analysts on PB who don't allow their partisanship to override their healthy pursuit of profit. BlackRook and AndyJS stand out, tho the former has to be nudged every once in a while, and there are others.

Q2) "How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results."

A2) Partisan shouting drowned out nonpartisan analysis. The analysis of the YouGov model was robust but intended to dismiss not assess, and not matched by a similar robust analysis of the other polls and models. I (and a couple of others, Casino_Royale was one I think) were sufficiently cognizant of it to steer clear of Con absolute majority, tho CR changed his mind in the latter stages. Plus my usual touchstone (postal vote sampling) didn't bark: there were no reports of unusual patterns. Canvassing reports were either pro-Con (that Labour Uncut guy) or were dismissed if pro-Lab (David Herdson?)

In a genuine spirit of inquiry, if you have any information source from prior to election day that a) pointed to the results, b) wasn't a product of fantasy and c) can be used again, I'd be grateful if you could make it known

MarqueeMark · June 2017

oxfordsimon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

oxfordsimon said:

Pulpstar said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355
Labour might be overplaying their hand here.
They have been doing that since Friday afternoon.

But the media aren't interested. For now.
Yeah, no-one is going to notice.
Oh, they are noticing - but it doesn't fit the narrative that people want to create.

Ordinarily a Shadow Chancellor who has just failed to be part of an election-winning cabinet calling for civil unrest would be cause for alarm in all quarters. Can't win through the ballot boxes so just take the to the street - that is dangerous talk. But I would be amazed if this rates much comment.

Today of all days is not the day to be talking low politics. If it does rate comment, it will be particularly adverse.

Alistair · June 2017

glw said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355
Does he realise they are outnumbered or is he having trouble counting like other Labour figures?

Remember that Corbyn and McDonnel are on record as saying winning elections doesn't matter. McDonnel especially is expecting revolution to occur.

He is a Trot.

Charles · June 2017

HaroldO said:

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.
The exemption of Scotland from the WFA cuts was a cattle-prod-up-the-arse moment for me.

I knew that was a serious mistake and would cost votes.

Likewise the Conservatives made numerous other mistakes and all the lost votes added up.
Another poster made a good point that you should never deliberately make enemies, accidentally or when you have to yes but never aim to make them. May kept going out of her way to make them, from day one.

My grandfathers point was make them deliberately or not at all. No room for accidents

rcs1000 · June 2017

I didn't bet a lot on the election. My initial (and biggest) bet was to sell - at the maximum amount allowed - the LDs on the seat markets at 33 when the election was first called.

After that, I made a small (and dumb) error, buying Conservative seats at 368. Fortunately, SpreadEx limited me to £2/seat, and SPIN wouldn't take my money at all.

I did take some money from those who thought the LibDems were in with a shout in Vauxhall. (Disclaimer: they weren't.) And I lost a tiny amount on Argyll & Bute (which I still need to pay).

My big call was that the LDs would do better in seat terms than people thought. On the day of the election I called 12 seats. (Someone joked that I'd made that prediction in 2015, and was just hoping it would be right this time around.) However, full disclosure, is that I thought the LDs would take 12 seats on a c. 10% vote share. I correctly predicted tactical voting would return, but I did not expect the LDs would go backwards in national vote share.

Of course, I like to think that I've been broadly right (and counter PB-consensus) on the LDs three elections in a row: 2015, 2016 Holyrood, and now 2017. Given that, I will make no more LD forecasts so as to ensure my record remains unsullied.

another_richard · June 2017

MarqueeMark said:

glw said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well that is going to help labour no end
This is why I'm quite relaxed about the election result. Labour are stuck with Corbyn and McDonnell and they are poison, they will do more harm than good to the Labour Party in the long term.
It will be interesting to get some feedback/polling on just how many people voted Labour in 2017 because the Tories were just BOUND to get a huge majority, so like in a by-election, they had a free shot at Bishop Brennan's arse.....

Some.

I also suspect there was a few people who voted Labour thinking they were being ironic and that it would be good fun to see more of Diane Abbott. In the same way that entertainment acts which are so-shite-they're-hilarious get fans.

Andy_Cooke · June 2017

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?

Well, all I knew was OxWAb, and I correctly said it would be very close, despite Layla starting from nearly 10,000 down.
Was it here or on another forum I said "Whoever wins, it'll be by a three figure majority"?

KentRising · June 2017

That cnut Corbyn is trying to make hay out of the west London fire. Unbelievable. Give it a day or two FFS. What a despicable little man.

glw · June 2017

MarqueeMark said:

glw said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well that is going to help labour no end
This is why I'm quite relaxed about the election result. Labour are stuck with Corbyn and McDonnell and they are poison, they will do more harm than good to the Labour Party in the long term.
It will be interesting to get some feedback/polling on just how many people voted Labour in 2017 because the Tories were just BOUND to get a huge majority, so like in a by-election, they had a free shot at Bishop Brennan's arse.....

I'd never vote for something because they can't win. That's seems quite illogical to me. I only ever vote for the least bad candidate or party.

Alice_Aforethought · June 2017

glw said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well that is going to help labour no end
This is why I'm quite relaxed about the election result. Labour are stuck with Corbyn and McDonnell and they are poison, they will do more harm than good to the Labour Party in the long term.

You think? I don't. Look how fast the supposed Labour moderates have been on here to row back on the anti-Corbyn rhetoric.

A significant portion of the electorate doesn't care if the LotO supports terrorist murderers, as long as he gives them other people's money.

Tykejohnno · June 2017

KentRising said:
That cnut Corbyn is trying to make hay out of the west London fire. Unbelievable. Give it a day or two FFS. What a despicable little man.

Same for radio/tv presenters -

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/875021436615839746

surbiton · June 2017

viewcode said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
If I had a pound for every time I tried to answer a polemic dressed up as a nominally serious question on PB I'd have...(thinks furiously)...very approx £20. So dragging my weary arse towards your question like Charlie Brown to the football one more bloody time, let's try to answer this.

Q1) "Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?"

A1) Yes, or thereabouts. Most people in the real world who bet on politics do so as an affirmation of support for their party or to win an argument. Thankfully there are some (not enough!) gamblers and analysts on PB who don't allow their partisanship to override their healthy pursuit of profit. BlackRook and AndyJS stand out, tho the former has to be nudged every once in a while, and there are others.

Q2) "How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results."

A2) Partisan shouting drowned out nonpartisan analysis. The analysis of the YouGov model was robust but intended to dismiss not assess, and not matched by a similar robust analysis of the other polls and models. I (and a couple of others, Casino_Royale was one I think) were sufficiently cognizant of it to steer clear of Con absolute majority, tho CR changed his mind in the latter stages. Plus my usual touchstone (postal vote sampling) didn't bark: there were no reports of unusual patterns. Canvassing reports were either pro-Con (that Labour Uncut guy) or were dismissed if pro-Lab (David Herdson?)

In a genuine spirit of inquiry, if you have any information source from prior to election day that a) pointed to the results, b) wasn't a product of fantasy and c) can be used again, I'd be grateful if you could make it known

I wish I had that information. But this has to be most complex election. Different regions voting differently is not new, but even neighbouring seats behaving differently is new.

The gradual swing to Labour would have been picked up. But ICM and ComRes by pooh-poohing Yougov and Survation successfully stopped that.

Apart from May, Martin Boon is the biggest loser of this election.

No_Offence_Alan · June 2017

HaroldO said:
Gladstone went on for so long because he had an iron rod of faith going right through him, his belief in God meant he couldn't give up politics as that would be thumbing his nose at the all mighty whom had given him this job to do.

And there was no internet.

HaroldO · June 2017

Charles said:

HaroldO said:

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
The night of the Conservative manifesto, both SeanT and I said this would happen unless we clarified both of the policies the following day. We were accused of panicking.
The exemption of Scotland from the WFA cuts was a cattle-prod-up-the-arse moment for me.

I knew that was a serious mistake and would cost votes.

Likewise the Conservatives made numerous other mistakes and all the lost votes added up.
Another poster made a good point that you should never deliberately make enemies, accidentally or when you have to yes but never aim to make them. May kept going out of her way to make them, from day one.
My grandfathers point was make them deliberately or not at all. No room for accidents

Ah yes, thanks for the story that came with that too. Very interesting. Cheers.

Richard_Nabavi · June 2017

glw said:
I'd never vote for something because they can't win. That's seems quite illogical to me. I only ever vote for the least bad candidate or party.

It makes good sense in some circumstances. When IDS was leader of the Tories, I remember thinking about how I would vote in a GE; on the one hand, I couldn't in all honesty pretend that he and his Shadow Cabinet team were a viable government-in-waiting to replace Blair's lot, but on the other hand I didn't want the Tories to be so badly shellacked that they couldn't recover once they'd come to their senses. So I decided that I would probably vote Tory on the strict understanding that they wouldn't win. In the event, of course, the dilemma was resolved by the party coming to its senses before the next GE.

I imagine that some Labour supporters from the sane wing of the party will have made a similar calculation this time.

PaulM · June 2017

alex. said:
Don't forget the Tory vote went up by 6%. It's not perhaps surprising if Conservative activists were blindsided. And Labour activists might have assumed that any signs they were picking up would have been offset by disaster elsewhere.

True - a good friend of mine who was a Tory agent and activist didn't see it coming at all. the day of the election he was mildly confident of winning the marginal, but they ended up losing by 5,000. In fact he said he was now questioning the Tory canvassing software, as he had a almost 100% hit rate of knocking up Tories and wondered if the software was not targeting persuadable voters

[Fwiw he thought the manifesto was dire and that May was not helpful)

foxinsoxuk · June 2017

Charles said:

Tykejohnno said:
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/875045760898916355
Presumably that sort of statement from a senior politician is breaking some kind of law?

I'm assuming that inciting the overthrow of a democratically elected government is somehow against the rules?

I think that you are over egging it. They are planning amajor anti-austerity protest to put pressure on May to step down. Plenty of PB Tories have argued just the same.

They want to collape the minority government of headless chickens, for new elections not a revolution.

oxfordsimon · June 2017

Tykejohnno said:

KentRising said:
That cnut Corbyn is trying to make hay out of the west London fire. Unbelievable. Give it a day or two FFS. What a despicable little man.
Same for radio/tv presenters -

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/875021436615839746

The BBC have been relishing every single moment of the day. They just love to find themselves at the heart of a crisis - giving their friends plenty of airtime.

Victoria Derbyshire this morning was simply appalling. Full of emotive language and opinion-giving, very little news reporting.

The coverage has been very poor - compared to the immediate aftermath of the London Bridge events. Today they have gone with every rumour or ill-informed speculation rather than waiting for real facts.

No_Offence_Alan · June 2017

MaxPB said:

Alistair said:
As for Scotland, the SNP underperformed their polling badly. If I thought they were going to score under 40% I would have been sounding the klaxon big time.
I think Scotland was the only country where there is still a Shy Tory effect. We didn't see it anywhere else.

There were several polls in Scotland during the campaign that had the Tories on more than their actual result. Some polls had Labour in the teens when they managed 27% at the end.

dixiedean · June 2017

It seems we can conclude that anecdata was very revealing if only on a very local level @Alice Aforethought, @isam, @valleyboy, and of course @David Herdson (no doubt others, too) were accurately telling us what was happening in their area, from very different political standpoints.For myself, I pointed out the large numbers of Labour activists/enthusiasm in ultra-safe Hexham and the total absence of any Tory campaign. I dismissed this as a feature of a local Party stung by Local election defeat getting off it's arse. There was a 3.9% swing to Labour here.
The problem was wildly differing swings in different places.
Maybe we need an interpretist study, with a correspondent in each constituency?

viewcode · June 2017

glw said:
as forecasting in general is awful across essentially all fields.

I have a rapidly-expanding second/third career based on precisely that point. It's weird how much time is spent doing it and how rarely it is remembered. Take about ten minutes a day at, say, the Telegraph's live daily business coverage. Note the predictions of pound movements over the medium term. They're all over the place, and these are proper forecasty people with City jobs. Forecasting has its place but over a certain timespan it's just noise. Given sufficient access I think I can predict an election result thirty minutes before the declaration in a by-election, and reasonably reliably two hours (ie around 1-2am) before the bookies shut shop for a GE, but before that it's a risk.

another_richard · June 2017

rcs1000 said:
I didn't bet a lot on the election. My initial (and biggest) bet was to sell - at the maximum amount allowed - the LDs on the seat markets at 33 when the election was first called.

After that, I made a small (and dumb) error, buying Conservative seats at 368. Fortunately, SpreadEx limited me to £2/seat, and SPIN wouldn't take my money at all.

I did take some money from those who thought the LibDems were in with a shout in Vauxhall. (Disclaimer: they weren't.) And I lost a tiny amount on Argyll & Bute (which I still need to pay).

My big call was that the LDs would do better in seat terms than people thought. On the day of the election I called 12 seats. (Someone joked that I'd made that prediction in 2015, and was just hoping it would be right this time around.) However, full disclosure, is that I thought the LDs would take 12 seats on a c. 10% vote share. I correctly predicted tactical voting would return, but I did not expect the LDs would go backwards in national vote share.

Of course, I like to think that I've been broadly right (and counter PB-consensus) on the LDs three elections in a row: 2015, 2016 Holyrood, and now 2017. Given that, I will make no more LD forecasts so as to ensure my record remains unsullied.

I really need to thank you.

Your prediction of certain Labour defeats in Cambridge and Hampstead may have helped me get 5/1 on Labour.

I would like to feel rather proud that after carefully analysing the demographics I discovered that Labour to hold Westminster N at 7/2 was incredible value.

But as the swing in Westminster North was similar to that in nearby seats I'm not sure my analysis had any merit after all.

Richard_Nabavi · June 2017

PaulM said:

alex. said:
Don't forget the Tory vote went up by 6%. It's not perhaps surprising if Conservative activists were blindsided. And Labour activists might have assumed that any signs they were picking up would have been offset by disaster elsewhere.
True - a good friend of mine who was a Tory agent and activist didn't see it coming at all. the day of the election he was mildly confident of winning the marginal, but they ended up losing by 5,000. In fact he said he was now questioning the Tory canvassing software, as he had a almost 100% hit rate of knocking up Tories and wondered if the software was not targeting persuadable voters

[Fwiw he thought the manifesto was dire and that May was not helpful)

The explanation surely is that the Tory canvassing of their own supporters was fine, but Labour did even better (probably to their own surprise).

nunuone · June 2017

MarqueeMark said:

glw said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Well that is going to help labour no end
This is why I'm quite relaxed about the election result. Labour are stuck with Corbyn and McDonnell and they are poison, they will do more harm than good to the Labour Party in the long term.
It will be interesting to get some feedback/polling on just how many people voted Labour in 2017 because the Tories were just BOUND to get a huge majority, so like in a by-election, they had a free shot at Bishop Brennan's arse.....

We need a by election to really tell. If the Tories are able to GAIN a parliamentary By-election or two from Labour when governments normally lose seats

Torby_Fennel · June 2017

surbiton said:

And, what about the UKIP capital city, Lincoln ?

Let's face it, collectively, we failed miserably across all political opinions.

Lincoln? What? Surely you mean Boston?

I live in the city of Lincoln and I can assure you that it's about as far from being "UKIP capital city" as you can imagine. UKIP have never even taken a single council seat in the city of Lincoln let alone ever looked like doing anything here at a general election... thankfully. Even in 2015 they only reached 12% here. Lincoln is not at all like Boston or any of the other places in more rural Lincolnshire where UKIP have actual history of success.

foxinsoxuk · June 2017

oxfordsimon said:

Tykejohnno said:

KentRising said:
That cnut Corbyn is trying to make hay out of the west London fire. Unbelievable. Give it a day or two FFS. What a despicable little man.
Same for radio/tv presenters -

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/875021436615839746
The BBC have been relishing every single moment of the day. They just love to find themselves at the heart of a crisis - giving their friends plenty of airtime.

Victoria Derbyshire this morning was simply appalling. Full of emotive language and opinion-giving, very little news reporting.

The coverage has been very poor - compared to the immediate aftermath of the London Bridge events. Today they have gone with every rumour or ill-informed speculation rather than waiting for real facts.

Though the warnings were there, such as this one from Nov 16:

https://grenfellactiongroup.wordpress.com/2016/11/20/kctmo-playing-with-fire/

Reading it now it is horribly prescient.

nunuone · June 2017

Andy_Cooke said:

surbiton said:
Serious point particularly addressed to PBers and Political bettors:

How is it that with so many PBers spread across the country and with thousands of actual punters also spread across the country , hardly anyone picked up any signals regarding the election results.

Notable exception is, of course, David Herdson, very late in the day.

Would I be correct that most people even though they are putting up actual money tend to think the outcome will be what they would like it to be ?

Some of the swings in London and in the South and in Scotland were massive. I find it difficult to believe that a seasoned canvasser would not have picked some of the signals.

To be fair, Nick and Barnesian did say support was holding up. Even our cybernats who are normally not very shy either failed to pick up the huge [ albeit not as big as 2015 ] swings in Scotland.

The Tory swings in the North East of Scotland were anticipated but I cannot remember anyone suggesting Labour could win more than 3 seats there.

Wales. The perceived wisdom was that the Tories will finish on top !! And, the Midlands would be a bloodbath for Labour.

Where did the intelligence go wrong ?
Well, all I knew was OxWAb, and I correctly said it would be very close, despite Layla starting from nearly 10,000 down.
Was it here or on another forum I said "Whoever wins, it'll be by a three figure majority"?

Labour only won seats in Scotland by coming through the middle of the huge SNP to Tory swings.

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