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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Don’t laugh at us, Argentina
The referendum has not harmed growth, investment or confidence. The *possibility* of a Corbyn Government could be a different matter.
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1) Aberavon (Stephen Kinnock) 50.4%
2) Merthyr (Gerald Jones) 48.7%
3) Cardiff Central (Jo Stevens) 42.6%
4) Rhondda (Chris Bryant) 41.8%
5) Cynon Valley (Ann Clwyd) 41.6%
6) Swansea East (Carolyn Harris) 37.4%
7) Ogmore (Chris Elmore) 37.3%
8) Blaenau Gwent (Nick Smith) 36.8%
9) Neath (Christina Rees) 33.0%
10) Islwyn (Chris Evans) 31.6%
11) Llanelli (Nia Griffiths) 29.8%
12) Caerphilly (Wayne David) 29.3%
13) Cardiff South (Stephen Doughty) 29.3%
14) Pontypridd (Owen Smith) 28.7%
15) Swansea West (Geraint Davies) 28.5%
16) Cardiff West (Kevin Brennan) 26.9%
17) Torfaen (Nick Thomas-Symonds) 26.6%
18) Newport East (Jessica Morden) 21.7%
19) Ynis Mon (Albert Owen) 14.1%
20) Newport West (Paul Flynn) 13.0%
21) Alyn and Deeside (Mark Tami) 11.7%
22) Clwyd South (Susan Elan Jones) 11.6%
23) Bridgend (Madeleine Moon) 10.9%
24) Delyn (David Hanson) 10.8%
25) Cardiff North (Anna McMorrin) 8.0% GAIN
26) Gower (Tonia Antoniazzi) 7.2% GAIN
27) Vale of Clwyd (Chris Ruane) 6.1% GAIN
28) Wrexham (Ian Lucas) 5.2%
Welsh Labour did quite well in the Southern Valleys and held up in North Wales Labour leaning marginals.
Good article.
But, who knows how things will turn out?
By the way, Argentina has Messi. It's not all bad for them.
Isn't part of the problem here that Alastair Meeks thinks that someone like George Osborne represents the centre. To my mind Theresa May would seem to be a far more centrist politician, although undoubtedly under the influence of some fairly unhinged individuals.
Still, at least he got the Monty Hall problem right.
Oh, wait....
That will be the same Cameron and Osborne who promised no tax increase and guaranteed spending increases and never said no to funding their own vanity projects.
If you want a date as to when things started going wrong then try January 1998.
That was the last month the UK had a trade surplus.
Its been magic money tree ever since.
For us to follow a similar trajectory to Argentina, the public and politicians would have to lose faith in our governing institutions. I don't think that's likely but it's more possible now than it has been for a long time (I am of course setting aside the sort of serial constitutional reformers and tinkerers that you find mostly within the LDs and bits of the Labour Party).
Arguably, the cracks are already appearing. Some remainers have already lost faith in those institutions as a result of the EU referendum. A Corbyn or Corbynista led majority government turning out to be as left wing as expected would have a similar result amongst those on the right.
Amazing how many in Soton Test brought the latter up....
Your side had the British government, pretty much all big business and the civil service on side. Remind me, how did that go for you?
Combined with a nice Marlborough Sauv. B., they go down a treat on these hot evenings.
The party would have lost my (admittedly pitiful( donations, mind.
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21596582-one-hundred-years-ago-argentina-was-future-what-went-wrong-century-decline
EDIT: The Egg and Bacon Brigade should take note. If our PM can join in, so can they.
He says
"The public liked the idea of saving contributions to the EU to spend on funding NHS contributions (this mysteriously has not yet materialised) "
Why should it, when he knows full well we have not yet left the EU and will not for at least another 18 months to 2 years. As such we are still paying the same vast sums of money to the EU (£283 million a week) as we were before the referendum.
Why is CPI of 2.9% reported as a disaster but HPI of 5.6% reported as a good thing ?
House prices continuing to rise at multiples of wages increases might benefit rich economics editors but I know which inflation rate is most damaging for the country.
And while I can buy good wine for a fiver and good beer for a quid a bottle there's no CPI problem either.
1) Relative decline was always inevitable for Britain as the first industrial nation. Thanks to our failure to complete imperial federation and the loss of our position as the world's creditor through two world wars, we guaranteed that Britain would eventually decline to become a medium-weight European power in the same bracket as France and Germany. That had already happened by the late 60s, and I don't see anything to suggest we will suffer a further precipitous collapse.
2) Argentina fell prey to over dependence on the export of a few comodities and the sudden loss of markets for those comodities. Britain's economy has always been much more diverse, and even with the loss of much of our 'traditional' industry we are not a one trick pony.
In GE17, charges of "We can't afford that extreme left nonsense, we'll go bust" were barely raised at the LAB manifesto and didn't really cut through when they were. Why not? Why didn't predictions of outright economic disaster carry much weight?
Maybe the voters had heard a very similar prediction from the REMAIN campaign a few months back. Maybe they found that despite predictions of immediate sky-high interest rates, deflation, a 10% recession, three million jobs lost etc, all that really happened to them was that Toblerones got gappy, everyone they knew had a job, and their tracker mortgages actually fell a few quid a month.
In such circumstances you could, when someone says "Don't vote that way, it'll ruin the economy", forgive them for not listening.
What a depressing thought. Seems correct though. We punish even the appearance of anything other than incoherent populism.
My only concern might be whether that whining I hear is mosquitoes or unreconciled Remainers. I think I have a rolled up newspaper for both.
As you know.
I know who I'd trust more.
There is nothing new about over promising and under delivering. That is a feature of all governments, not just democracies 'suffering' from populism.
Goes back to the Maastricht debate/votes.
There was collusion between Tory rebels and Labour whips to try and defeat the government and Davis was in the whips office and IDS was one of the ringleaders.
As the campaign kicked off, how many times did you read the winking advice from a political commentator that ‘if you’re already sick of reading about Mrs May’s “strong and stable leadership” and how this is a choice about who negotiates Brexit, Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn, then it’s working’? Or even worse, the nudge-nudge suggestion that the mindless repetition of crude slogans isn’t aimed at people like you or me, but the poor old hoi polloi whose attention span for politics is rather limited?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/theresa-may-has-been-diminished-by-this-election-campaign/
Is all.
Asking for a friend...
It may be poor taste to say so, but the fact is that Latin people are rubbish at founding stable and prosperous colonies. Anglo Saxons run colonies better. Anglo Saxons create countries that other people want to live in.
And populism is only incoherent in the sense that "what people want" is incoherent. There's lots of different people. They want different stuff. Whether what a particular individual wants can be labelled "populist" or not is largely a matter of whether it's fashionable. Not much more than that.
Farage will not be in the debates!
I'm staggered at how uninformed and unprepared our government and some MPs are for Brexit.
We're 77 days in to a 730 day process, bugger all has happened, 49 days of those 77 days have been spent focusing on the needless election.
We're likely to fall out of the EU with no deal, with WTO terms and if that doesn't terrify you, then you're even more uninformed than I thought you were.
Brexit, I hope, will go down with her ship.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/datasets/housepriceindexmonthlyquarterlytables1to19
Probably just as well we've only ever had 2 UKIP MPs
This shows what a minor role IDS played:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maastricht_Rebels
10 Conservative MPs had the whip withdrawn
18 more Conservative MPs listed as also voting against the government
16 more Conservative MPs including IDS listed as abstaining
I'm guessing she's lined up enhanced access or thinks she's in line for *exclusive* brexit scoops or something - to make up for it.
On the tweet (and similar), I don't like the overly personal swipes directed at May for non-political mexican wavey type stuff.
She's only human.
Jeremy Corbyn's hobby is drain covers ffs.
1) There is no prospect of Europe being united under a single power that will threaten us militarily.
2) There is no prospect of a united Europe threatening Britain with a revised Continental system (even under the dreaded WTO option).
We have much to be thankful for, even if the Union Flag no longer flies over the world's oceans.
You cried wolf so very often that you simply have no credibility left.
Maybe, just maybe, they liked Corbyn and his vision. Not enough to win, but the Tories are in complete SELF INFLICTED chaos, whilst labour seem stromg amd stable in comparision.
If they want to hold a referendum or an election, they should do a better job helping people in this country.
May seems to intensely dislike the common person. Corbyn doest. People can see and sense these things you know