Not very often I agree with the EU but I do think the upshot of the hung parliament will be to make a no deal Brexit far more likely than if May had won 100 seats;
However, in his interview, Mr Barnier sounded increasingly impatient with the UK, saying: "I don't know what hard Brexit or soft Brexit means. I read yesterday 'Open Brexit' too! Brexit is withdrawal from the EU - it's the UK's decision. We're implementing it."
Well to be fair that's what Mrs May was saying before the election. All this "hard Brexit" and "soft Brexit" stuff was just brought up by Remainiacs to try and muddy the waters.
We're leaving and we've got to prepare and get on with it instead of all this angst-ridden hard and soft Brexit stuff.
Sorry no, I'm not having that, when people pointed out how difficult Brexit was going to be, we were called Remoaners.
Sadly for those who are having to deal with Brexit on a daily basis, we've been proved right.
Theresa triggered Article 50 nearly three months ago, then wasted 7 weeks on a general election, and we're even further away from any Brexit deal.
No, Remoaners were people who wanted to re run the referendum or fiilibuster BRexit
And what is wrong with that? If the result had been the other way Leavers would have done the same.
You're falling into the very common trap of not understanding the asymmetric nature of the referendum.
Had Remain won, the decision would have automatically been implemented, and thus arguing for a new referendum would not have been democratically illegitimate.
But as Leave won and the decision has not yet been implemented, the converse does not apply.
If Remain had won, Leave would have kept campaigning. Farage thought he had lost at 2am on the morning of the referendum and said he would keep on. I watched him say it. It was just like Socttish IndyRef. The Nats keep losing the referenda and they keep asking for another one.
Yes, and when a political party loses an election they fight the next one.
But in all cases only after the decision is implemented.
Alistair Burt must be setting some record in the up and down the greasy pole stakes - he was a junior FCO minister 2010-13 and then fired. Brought back in May 2016 at health but left in 2016 when Mrs M became PM. Now back at the FCO. Not bad.
Corbyn's stickablity was obvious after the second leadership election, if not before. He saw off all-comers within his party and emerged stronger. Now he's lost an election, but the mood music is that he's won. The reasons:
*) May and the Conservatives lost seats. *) He performed far better than the low expectations. *) He smashed the vote share of both his predecessors.
And in a way he has won: the Conservatives are in a real mess. He has gained between a few months and a few years of breathing room to continue changing his party. Even better, he's now gained the fawning admiration of most of those inside his party who were against him.
Point 4.
He has done what Blair, Brown and Miliband all failed to do and has (seemingly) united the left.
How collegiate will Corbyn now be? He starts to look like a pragmatist but McDonnell is not. Yet I can't see him moving him. He won't move Thornberry so the only key position that might go to a moderate is Diane. Probably to Chuka.
Labour's perceived success at this election was a flash in the pan. The Tories will never run a campaign as dire as this one again
Famous last words...
I'm ready for PM Jezza at any point. Think everyone needs to brace themselves!
Yes indeed, the shrewd PB Tories who assured us that that May was the messiah are the same people who are assuring us that Jezza is NOT the messiah!
Well I can tell you I never thought that of May. But Corbyn PM, no chance, not now. The DUP hate him more than the Tories do, and they will cosy along nicely together for the foreseeable.
Whatever may's shortcomings are - and they are numerous - the thought of Corbyn PM is a million times worse.
The PLP gave an extremist a standing ovation in the HoC today. They will live to regret that.
Politics is like football - JC is the journeyman midfielder who somehow has scored a hat-trick in the last 15 minutes of the match to grab a draw! He is therefore rightly being acclaimed as a hero (for now at least!)
Nah, they lost 4-3 from 4-0 down...
You still don't get it.
It was a Test Match draw where one team (the Tories) has a massive run advantage. Jezza is Monty Panesar at Sophia Gardens against the Aussies.
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
Corbyn's stickablity was obvious after the second leadership election, if not before. He saw off all-comers within his party and emerged stronger. Now he's lost an election, but the mood music is that he's won. The reasons:
*) May and the Conservatives lost seats. *) He performed far better than the low expectations. *) He smashed the vote share of both his predecessors.
And in a way he has won: the Conservatives are in a real mess. He has gained between a few months and a few years of breathing room to continue changing his party. Even better, he's now gained the fawning admiration of most of those inside his party who were against him.
Point 4.
He has done what Blair, Brown and Miliband all failed to do and has (seemingly) united the left.
Indeed, although I'm unsure that's a situation that will continue for a long time. Corbyn's negatives will come to the fore soon enough.
But he's beaten off the rivals in the party twice already.
Not very often I agree with the EU but I do think the upshot of the hung parliament will be to make a no deal Brexit far more likely than if May had won 100 seats;
However, in his interview, Mr Barnier sounded increasingly impatient with the UK, saying: "I don't know what hard Brexit or soft Brexit means. I read yesterday 'Open Brexit' too! Brexit is withdrawal from the EU - it's the UK's decision. We're implementing it."
Well to be fair that's what Mrs May was saying before the election. All this "hard Brexit" and "soft Brexit" stuff was just brought up by Remainiacs to try and muddy the waters.
We're leaving and we've got to prepare and get on with it instead of all this angst-ridden hard and soft Brexit stuff.
Sorry no, I'm not having that, when people pointed out how difficult Brexit was going to be, we were called Remoaners.
Sadly for those who are having to deal with Brexit on a daily basis, we've been proved right.
Theresa triggered Article 50 nearly three months ago, then wasted 7 weeks on a general election, and we're even further away from any Brexit deal.
No, Remoaners were people who wanted to re run the referendum or fiilibuster BRexit
And what is wrong with that? If the result had been the other way Leavers would have done the same.
You're falling into the very common trap of not understanding the asymmetric nature of the referendum.
Had Remain won, the decision would have automatically been implemented, and thus arguing for a new referendum would not have been democratically illegitimate.
But as Leave won and the decision has not yet been implemented, the converse does not apply.
If Remain had won, Leave would have kept campaigning. Farage thought he had lost at 2am on the morning of the referendum and said he would keep on. I watched him say it. It was just like Socttish IndyRef. The Nats keep losing the referenda and they keep asking for another one.
Yes, and when a political party loses an election they fight the next one.
But in all cases only after the decision is implemented.
Well then, if you wait long enough...
Yes, if Remainers wait until we have Left the EU they can start advocating we Rejoin...
I don't see how it's technically possible. Assuming May stands down, her successor will be a Tory, at least in the short term?
If the Tories lost a confidence vote the Queen would send for Corbyn.
If I win the euromillions rollover this weekend, I'm off to live in Monaco. Possible, but not very likely.
It's easily possible. 7 by election defeats and it will happen. Brexit unacceptable to a handful and it will happen, DUP take the ball home and 2 MPS abstain and it happens. Labour refuse to honour pairing and no confidence them whilst ministers are in Brussels and it happens.
Corbyn's stickablity was obvious after the second leadership election, if not before. He saw off all-comers within his party and emerged stronger. Now he's lost an election, but the mood music is that he's won. The reasons:
*) May and the Conservatives lost seats. *) He performed far better than the low expectations. *) He smashed the vote share of both his predecessors.
And in a way he has won: the Conservatives are in a real mess. He has gained between a few months and a few years of breathing room to continue changing his party. Even better, he's now gained the fawning admiration of most of those inside his party who were against him.
A hung parliament works very well for him. He doesn't have to be tested on his manifesto or take responsibility for negotiating Brexit and he has demonstrated that shifting the party further to the left doesn't equate to electoral oblivion. In addition the issue of his past associations has been neutralised.
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
Presumably Corbyn could resign as PM and tell HMQ to send for Boris or whoever is Tory Leader who would say they cannot command a vote of confidence and HMQ would have to dissolve parliament.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
As I understand it, if the Conservatives lose a vote of confidence (which the QS is) then they must resign, and Corbyn gets the chance to form a government. If he loses a vote of confidence, there's a fresh election. Alternatively, two thirds of MPs can vote to call an election.
The Conservatives would be in a position to vote down a great deal of what Corbyn was putting forward. but if they voted down a Finance Bill, that would trigger a general election. And, governments also have considerable administrative powers.
If Corbyn was trapped as PM in the way described could he not call for an election and make the vote a confidence vote in the government thereby getting Labour out and leaving the Tories holding the ball?
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
1. Hard Brexit would be a disaster as DXEU knows fully well 2. Any kid of negotiated Brexit is impossible to achieve in the remaining time available, so 3. An off the shelf agreement is the only game in town to salvage any kind of political credibility and not have the thing spin out of control
So she's sacking the ministers who were prepping the no deal better than a good deal fantasy. And replacing them with people who have the number for the European Free Trade Association
Yes it looks very like they are just going to grab Efta off the shelf although not sure how they are going to square the FoM circle.
JFDI and fight the court cases? It's the European way, after all...
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
Very true , nothing positive as a reason to vote for them , just totally negative message on their opponents . I expect the Conservative government to stagger along from crisis to crisis well behind Labour in the polls until the next GE which they lose heavily and then scratch their heads and wonder why .
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
I was pondering the same. If they defeated Labour on every single vote it would backfire: better to avoid the obvious trap votes Labour would put in an vote for sensible measures ("for the public good").
A Labour minority government would be as much a nightmare for Corbyn as the current situation is for May. Probably worse, as I'm unconvinced that he actually wants the job.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
I don't see how it's technically possible. Assuming May stands down, her successor will be a Tory, at least in the short term?
If the Tories lost a confidence vote the Queen would send for Corbyn.
If I win the euromillions rollover this weekend, I'm off to live in Monaco. Possible, but not very likely.
It's easily possible. 7 by election defeats and it will happen. Brexit unacceptable to a handful and it will happen, DUP take the ball home and 2 MPS abstain and it happens. Labour refuse to honour pairing and no confidence them whilst ministers are in Brussels and it happens.
It's not easily possible at all, no more than it was before the election when the Tories also had a tiny majority.
7 by election defeats in a single parliament is far-fetched. And as I said earlier, the Tories and the DUP have an equal detestation of Corbyn.
I think you will be surprised how united the Tories and the DUP will be if it means keeping Corbyn away from government.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
Very true , nothing positive as a reason to vote for them , just totally negative message on their opponents . I expect the Conservative government to stagger along from crisis to crisis well behind Labour in the polls until the next GE which they lose heavily and then scratch their heads and wonder why .
I wonder if scrapping the FTPA will survive and be in the QS? Getting rid of it is probably top of May and the Tories agenda as it gives them the ability to control events more.
If Corbyn was trapped as PM in the way described could he not call for an election and make the vote a confidence vote in the government thereby getting Labour out and leaving the Tories holding the ball?
I think that only the loss of a formal vote of confidence ( or a QS or Finance Bill) would automatically trigger an election.
You can't get around the FPTA by just calling a bill a vote of confidence.
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
I was pondering the same. If they defeated Labour on every single vote it would backfire: better to avoid the obvious trap votes Labour would put in an vote for sensible measures ("for the public good").
A Labour minority government would be as much a nightmare for Corbyn as the current situation is for May. Probably worse, as I'm unconvinced that he actually wants the job.
On today's HoC numbers any opposition could make any minority government's life a nightmare. This parliament is not going to last 5 years! There'll be huge fun and games with dramas and tears and queenie is going to have to dissolve it and call another GE soon enough.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
As I understand it, if the Conservatives lose a vote of confidence (which the QS is) then they must resign, and Corbyn gets the chance to form a government. If he loses a vote of confidence, there's a fresh election. Alternatively, two thirds of MPs can vote to call an election.
The Conservatives would be in a position to vote down a great deal of what Corbyn was putting forward. but if they voted down a Finance Bill, that would trigger a general election. And, governments also have considerable administrative powers.
I don't see how it's technically possible. Assuming May stands down, her successor will be a Tory, at least in the short term?
If the Tories lost a confidence vote the Queen would send for Corbyn.
If I win the euromillions rollover this weekend, I'm off to live in Monaco. Possible, but not very likely.
It's easily possible. 7 by election defeats and it will happen. Brexit unacceptable to a handful and it will happen, DUP take the ball home and 2 MPS abstain and it happens. Labour refuse to honour pairing and no confidence them whilst ministers are in Brussels and it happens.
It's not easily possible at all, no more than it was before the election when the Tories also had a tiny majority.
7 by election defeats in a single parliament is far-fetched. And as I said earlier, the Tories and the DUP have an equal detestation of Corbyn.
I think you will be surprised how united the Tories and the DUP will be if it means keeping Corbyn away from government.
I would agree if there were unity of purpose on Brexit. There isn't. There is also NI to consider and what fallout there is from the alliance being formed. If power sharing and Stormont collapses then all bets are off.
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
It sounds like political game playing. Either have an election or get on with things.
I don't see how it's technically possible. Assuming May stands down, her successor will be a Tory, at least in the short term?
If the Tories lost a confidence vote the Queen would send for Corbyn.
If (and only if) there was any chance of him winning a confidence vote, no?
Yes - the Tories would have to indicate that they would allow his QS. This is the 'give him the rope' strategy. If the Tories were ousted and Corbyn could not form a government then a GE would take place with May as PM. If Labour won the election then Corbyn would become PM.
How they did it was by drowning out every dissenting voice on social media. Very effective, and much cheaper than using the official channels. But also rather nasty at times.
If social media pre-election is a sign of how a Corbyn government will look, then it should be avoided at all costs.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
When was the last time someone perceived to be on the far-left of British politics got a 40% vote share? What happened in the past is no longer a guarantee of what will happen in the future.
If Corbyn was trapped as PM in the way described could he not call for an election and make the vote a confidence vote in the government thereby getting Labour out and leaving the Tories holding the ball?
I think that only the loss of a formal vote of confidence ( or a QS or Finance Bill) would automatically trigger an election.
You can't get around the FPTA by just calling a bill a vote of confidence.
Yes but it would force Corbyn to resign as PM and HMQ to recall the Tories. Hot potato.
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
I was pondering the same. If they defeated Labour on every single vote it would backfire: better to avoid the obvious trap votes Labour would put in an vote for sensible measures ("for the public good").
A Labour minority government would be as much a nightmare for Corbyn as the current situation is for May. Probably worse, as I'm unconvinced that he actually wants the job.
On today's HoC numbers any opposition could make any minority government's life a nightmare. This parliament is not going to last 5 years! There'll be huge fun and games with dramas and tears and queenie is going to have to dissolve it and call another GE soon enough.
I seem to remember plenty of leading lights here and elsewhere saying the same thing about the 2010 coalition. The media speculated about it lasting a few months.
A lot of people are underestimating the Tories and the DUP. They will hold together because they have to.
The alternative is Corbyn PM and this country goes off a cliff edge.
Labour's perceived success at this election was a flash in the pan. The Tories will never run a campaign as dire as this one again, they'll have a more public friendly PM (hopefully), and Corbyn and McDonnell will go on being the far left extremists they have always been.
The Tory manifesto sunk the Tories, not Corbyn. The polling pre and post manifesto proves that conclusively. And I wonder how many people would have voted Labour if they thought seriously that Corbyn could have been PM.
All the reasons why the PLP tried to remove Corbyn will remain, indeed, they will be intensified, and professional worms like Cooper and Umuna will regret grovelling at his feet.
To think last week at this time.
You were forecasting a landslide despite all of the above.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
Very true , nothing positive as a reason to vote for them , just totally negative message on their opponents . I expect the Conservative government to stagger along from crisis to crisis well behind Labour in the polls until the next GE which they lose heavily and then scratch their heads and wonder why .
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
Just did a post election poll for the Conservatives/
They found one then .....
Jason is still commenting like nothing has changed.
No, I'm saying the Tories and the DUP will fight to the death rather than hand power over to Corbyn. As for Corbyn himself, his short term feel good 'victory', or whatever you want to call it, will last precisely as long as the PLP allow it to.
He will see the election as a legitimisation of his politics. We'll see how long the moderates can stomach that.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
Very true , nothing positive as a reason to vote for them , just totally negative message on their opponents . I expect the Conservative government to stagger along from crisis to crisis well behind Labour in the polls until the next GE which they lose heavily and then scratch their heads and wonder why .
...and still we won.
Shows just how weak the opposition must be, eh?
No you did not , no one won .
The Blue Meanies won the most seats, the popular vote, and I believe 305 more seats than your team.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
Heath lost in 66 won in 70 .Wilson lost in 1970 won in 74.I imagine all the on Tories are hoping May is Heath.
@bbclaurak: Boom - Steve Baker, effective and well liked euroscep shop steward given a job in govt at Brexit dept
@SophyRidgeSky: Good news for people worried about the Gvt slipping back on Brexit - Steve Baker new Parliamentary Under-Secretary at Dpt for Exiting the EU
@KateEMcCann: Steve Baker, chief organiser of Brexiteers on the back-benches, gets a Government job at the Department for Exiting the EU.
@paulwaugh: Wow. now here's an appointment. May has given lead Brexiteer MP Steve Baker a job as minister in Brexit dept.
Labour's perceived success at this election was a flash in the pan. The Tories will never run a campaign as dire as this one again, they'll have a more public friendly PM (hopefully), and Corbyn and McDonnell will go on being the far left extremists they have always been.
The Tory manifesto sunk the Tories, not Corbyn. The polling pre and post manifesto proves that conclusively. And I wonder how many people would have voted Labour if they thought seriously that Corbyn could have been PM.
All the reasons why the PLP tried to remove Corbyn will remain, indeed, they will be intensified, and professional worms like Cooper and Umuna will regret grovelling at his feet.
To think last week at this time.
You were forecasting a landslide despite all of the above.
I don't recall ever forecasting a landslide! And you yourself kept making wild predictions. The polling was clear, though, pre and post manifesto launch. Pre launch a landslide was a distinct possibility.
None of us covered ourselves with glory over predicting the outcome of the election.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
Heath lost in 66 won in 70 .Wilson lost in 1970 won in 74.I imagine all the on Tories are hoping May is Heath.
Ah, but Wilson didn't fight the 1970 election as LOTO so doesn't count within the terms of the question. Heath would count 1966/1970.
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
As I understand it, if the Conservatives lose a vote of confidence (which the QS is) then they must resign, and Corbyn gets the chance to form a government. If he loses a vote of confidence, there's a fresh election. Alternatively, two thirds of MPs can vote to call an election.
The Conservatives would be in a position to vote down a great deal of what Corbyn was putting forward. but if they voted down a Finance Bill, that would trigger a general election. And, governments also have considerable administrative powers.
Is that still the case under the FTPA?
I think that's how it works. I think it's now rather hard to actually get a general election, if there's no appetite for it in Parliament.
Labour would certainly want another quick general election, and perhaps the Lib Dems. The Conservatives, SNP, DUP, all have their own reasons for not wanting another general election soon.
Just did a post election poll for the Conservatives/
They found one then .....
Jason is still commenting like nothing has changed.
No, I'm saying the Tories and the DUP will fight to the death rather than hand power over to Corbyn. As for Corbyn himself, his short term feel good 'victory', or whatever you want to call it, will last precisely as long as the PLP allow it to.
He will see the election as a legitimisation of his politics. We'll see how long the moderates can stomach that.
The fight to the death will end in their own . The longer they cling to power , the bigger will be the Labour victory at the next GE .
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
Heath lost in 66 won in 70 .Wilson lost in 1970 won in 74.I imagine all the on Tories are hoping May is Heath.
Ah, but Wilson didn't fight the 1970 election as LOTO so doesn't count within the terms of the question. Heath would count 1966/1970.
Yes we are looking for a LoTo that had never been PM that got the chance to fight again after being a GE loser but then won 2nd time around.
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
I was pondering the same. If they defeated Labour on every single vote it would backfire: better to avoid the obvious trap votes Labour would put in an vote for sensible measures ("for the public good").
A Labour minority government would be as much a nightmare for Corbyn as the current situation is for May. Probably worse, as I'm unconvinced that he actually wants the job.
On today's HoC numbers any opposition could make any minority government's life a nightmare. This parliament is not going to last 5 years! There'll be huge fun and games with dramas and tears and queenie is going to have to dissolve it and call another GE soon enough.
I seem to remember plenty of leading lights here and elsewhere saying the same thing about the 2010 coalition. The media speculated about it lasting a few months.
A lot of people are underestimating the Tories and the DUP. They will hold together because they have to.
The alternative is Corbyn PM and this country goes off a cliff edge.
The 2010 coalition had ?363? seats when formed. The 2017 arrangement will have ?327?
It's got much more in common with 1996/7, and we all know how well that went for Major and the Conservatives. Major had 336 seats in 1992, and ended up in a terrible situation wrt votes as seats leached away in by-elections.
So they're starting from a lower position than in 1992.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
@bbclaurak: Boom - Steve Baker, effective and well liked euroscep shop steward given a job in govt at Brexit dept
@SophyRidgeSky: Good news for people worried about the Gvt slipping back on Brexit - Steve Baker new Parliamentary Under-Secretary at Dpt for Exiting the EU
@KateEMcCann: Steve Baker, chief organiser of Brexiteers on the back-benches, gets a Government job at the Department for Exiting the EU.
@paulwaugh: Wow. now here's an appointment. May has given lead Brexiteer MP Steve Baker a job as minister in Brexit dept.
Steve Baker said on twitter today what a lot of us leavers are feeling. Hopefully he will prove an astute appointment.
Labour's perceived success at this election was a flash in the pan. The Tories will never run a campaign as dire as this one again, they'll have a more public friendly PM (hopefully), and Corbyn and McDonnell will go on being the far left extremists they have always been.
The Tory manifesto sunk the Tories, not Corbyn. The polling pre and post manifesto proves that conclusively. And I wonder how many people would have voted Labour if they thought seriously that Corbyn could have been PM.
All the reasons why the PLP tried to remove Corbyn will remain, indeed, they will be intensified, and professional worms like Cooper and Umuna will regret grovelling at his feet.
With all due respect you were dead wrong about pretty much everything in the run up to the election so why would anyone give your latest analysis any credence?
Just did a post election poll for the Conservatives/
They found one then .....
Jason is still commenting like nothing has changed.
No, I'm saying the Tories and the DUP will fight to the death rather than hand power over to Corbyn. As for Corbyn himself, his short term feel good 'victory', or whatever you want to call it, will last precisely as long as the PLP allow it to.
He will see the election as a legitimisation of his politics. We'll see how long the moderates can stomach that.
You said before an anti Corbyn video would gain a landslide for the Tories .Do you ever reflect why it was not a 150 majority for the Tories.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
Kinnock 1987 & 1992.
Kinnock lost both times.
Kinnock's 1992 win wasn't quite as impressive as Corbyn's 2017 win in my opinion.
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
When was the last time a LoTo fought an election, lost it , but still fought the next one and won ?
The FTPA process for calling an election outside the 2/3 is simple vote of NC in government and no vote of confidence passed on any new government within 14 days.
Labour's perceived success at this election was a flash in the pan. The Tories will never run a campaign as dire as this one again, they'll have a more public friendly PM (hopefully), and Corbyn and McDonnell will go on being the far left extremists they have always been.
The Tory manifesto sunk the Tories, not Corbyn. The polling pre and post manifesto proves that conclusively. And I wonder how many people would have voted Labour if they thought seriously that Corbyn could have been PM.
All the reasons why the PLP tried to remove Corbyn will remain, indeed, they will be intensified, and professional worms like Cooper and Umuna will regret grovelling at his feet.
With all due respect you were dead wrong about pretty much everything in the run up to the election so why would anyone give your latest analysis any credence?
If we accepted those conditions, there'd be no one to write threads or most of the comments post EU Ref
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
I was pondering the same. If they defeated Labour on every single vote it would backfire: better to avoid the obvious trap votes Labour would put in an vote for sensible measures ("for the public good").
A Labour minority government would be as much a nightmare for Corbyn as the current situation is for May. Probably worse, as I'm unconvinced that he actually wants the job.
On today's HoC numbers any opposition could make any minority government's life a nightmare. This parliament is not going to last 5 years! There'll be huge fun and games with dramas and tears and queenie is going to have to dissolve it and call another GE soon enough.
I seem to remember plenty of leading lights here and elsewhere saying the same thing about the 2010 coalition. The media speculated about it lasting a few months.
A lot of people are underestimating the Tories and the DUP. They will hold together because they have to.
The alternative is Corbyn PM and this country goes off a cliff edge.
The 2010 coalition had ?363? seats when formed. The 2017 arrangement will have ?327?
It's got much more in common with 1996/7, and we all know how well that went for Major and the Conservatives. Major had 336 seats in 1992, and ended up in a terrible situation wrt votes as seats leached away in by-elections.
So they're starting from a lower position than in 1992.
Wilson had a majority of 4 in October 74, and lasted for nearly 5 years. The Tories + DUP will have an effective majority of 13.
This government will go the distance. It is their duty to keep Corbyn away from the levers of power!
Whilst I understand your position and I don't want the so called 'Hard' Brexit either, the fact is that you and everyone else who voted Labour voted for a party that included what you refer to as a Hard Brexit in their election pledges. Parties are judged by their manifestoes and what they say during the campaign (as May is finding out to her cost) and for every person like you who claim they did not vote for a hard Brexit from Labour there an ex-UKIP supporter who specifically felt they were able to vote for Labour because of the commitment to leave the Single Market and impose border controls. You and I may not want it but that is what the parties campaigned for and it is what they will be judged on.
I didn't read May's no-deal rhetoric as arguing for anything in particular, but rather as managing the expectations of the GBP and of the EU.
If the latter think we will accept a very poor deal over none, then obviously they'll present a very poor deal. We know they would do this because they did it to Cameron when he asked for a deal and he had to take what he was given (barely any deal at all) and pretend it was a good deal (can anyone even remember what it was?).
To be able to walk away when the same treatment is offered again post-Article 50, it had first to be said out loud in a GE campaign that we'd walk away from a poor deal and settle for none. Because if it's not, the EU could just smirk when it's said (for the first time) in negotiation, and say, Tell that to the GBP. As it is, if May had her majority, she could indeed shrug and say to the GBP, OK, I told them we might get to this.
At that point, no deal has to be better than any deal for the EU also. If it's not, they have to blink and negotiations are back on.
Someone once said of the Cold War that it was tense because the West was playing poker and the East was playing chess. EU exit is now going to be painfully tense because only the EU can now play poker, while we are in fact playing Old Maids. Or Uno. Or Mille Bornes. Or something.
If Corbyn was trapped as PM in the way described could he not call for an election and make the vote a confidence vote in the government thereby getting Labour out and leaving the Tories holding the ball?
I think that only the loss of a formal vote of confidence ( or a QS or Finance Bill) would automatically trigger an election.
You can't get around the FPTA by just calling a bill a vote of confidence.
I don't think a QS or Finance Bill failing automatically triggers an election either, my reading of FTPA is that it's only a motion specifically “that this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government.”
The Tories will try and oust the FTPA or amend it to simple majority for an election and try and cut and run the moment Corbyn loses his lustre. I'd guess their aim is to get to a point of no return in the Brexit negotiations and try their luck under a new leader.
If Corbyn was trapped as PM in the way described could he not call for an election and make the vote a confidence vote in the government thereby getting Labour out and leaving the Tories holding the ball?
I think that only the loss of a formal vote of confidence ( or a QS or Finance Bill) would automatically trigger an election.
You can't get around the FPTA by just calling a bill a vote of confidence.
I don't think a QS or Finance Bill failing automatically triggers an election either, my reading of FTPA is that it's only a motion specifically “that this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government.”
This sordid business is really all down to the right wingers in the Conservative Party and their obsession with Europe. They are to blame, no -one else. I know of colleagues who astonished me in the Referendum by voting Leave over immigration and a wish to give Cameron a kicking, and who are now saying they want to STAY. Things have changed. By the way they live in the Stoke area!!!
Paul Waugh said it was Alex Burghart originally, but now he's saying it was Jonathan Djanogly
I was at Christ Church with Alex. I knew he was working with the Tories, I saw him at 30 Millbank when he worked for Tim Loughton, but didn't realise he'd become an MP. I see he added over 4k to Pickles's vote. Well done him!
Now we have a PLP again we are taking up from the point where Corbyn was at best a useful idiot fronting a ruthless hard left takeover of Labour, purging dissenters and with little regard for conventional electoral success. Has everything changed yet nothing changed?
It isn't quite right that Corbyn would necessarily get first dibs on forming a Government under FTPA were a motion of no confidence passed in the Government.
Following a NO confidence motion, there is 14 days for a motion of confidence to be passed, during which May would remain PM. In practice, she might rectify the matter herself (e.g. if she lost because the DUP by offering a sweetener). Alternatively, she might get a new coalition partner (unlikely, but in theory the Lib Dems, SNP or whatever). Alternatively, if she's the problem, the Conservatives could propose a new leader who can command the confidence of the House.
Corbyn only really comes into play if he can form a Government capable of commanding the confidence of the House. On the current maths - even with a few by-election losses - that's vanishingly unlikely as he'd need several coalition partners, not just one. His route, realistically, would be that a confidence motion is not passed within 14 days of the no confidence motion, and an early election ensues.
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
I was pondering the same. If they defeated Labour on every single vote it would backfire: better to avoid the obvious trap votes Labour would put in an vote for sensible measures ("for the public good").
A Labour minority government would be as much a nightmare for Corbyn as the current situation is for May. Probably worse, as I'm unconvinced that he actually wants the job.
On today's HoC numbers any opposition could make any minority government's life a nightmare. This parliament is not going to last 5 years! There'll be huge fun and games with dramas and tears and queenie is going to have to dissolve it and call another GE soon enough.
I seem to remember plenty of leading lights here and elsewhere saying the same thing about the 2010 coalition. The media speculated about it lasting a few months.
A lot of people are underestimating the Tories and the DUP. They will hold together because they have to.
The alternative is Corbyn PM and this country goes off a cliff edge.
The 2010 coalition had ?363? seats when formed. The 2017 arrangement will have ?327?
It's got much more in common with 1996/7, and we all know how well that went for Major and the Conservatives. Major had 336 seats in 1992, and ended up in a terrible situation wrt votes as seats leached away in by-elections.
So they're starting from a lower position than in 1992.
Wilson had a majority of 4 in October 74, and lasted for nearly 5 years. The Tories + DUP will have an effective majority of 13.
This government will go the distance. It is their duty to keep Corbyn away from the levers of power!
This is not 1974.
Besides, think of what happened in the next elections after 1974 and 1992: both saw the government out and ushered in 10+ years of the opposition party. Small majorities are destructive to the governing party.
(And even 2010 was, if you think of the Lib Dems as a governing party back then).
If Corbyn was trapped as PM in the way described could he not call for an election and make the vote a confidence vote in the government thereby getting Labour out and leaving the Tories holding the ball?
I think that only the loss of a formal vote of confidence ( or a QS or Finance Bill) would automatically trigger an election.
You can't get around the FPTA by just calling a bill a vote of confidence.
I don't think a QS or Finance Bill failing automatically triggers an election either, my reading of FTPA is that it's only a motion specifically “that this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government.”
Both are de facto votes of confidence though.
Doesn't matter. The FTPA is explicit - the motion has to be “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.”
A confidence vote would very likely follow a Queen's Speech or Finance Bill defeat, but these would not be confidence votes in the meaning of the legislation.
Jezza arrives on the front bench to a standing ovation. Theresa ... well .... she's there.
You would think he had won.
He has pretty much/
No, there's a technical term to what happened to him and Labour in the election: they lost.
You have to hand it to Labour and the extremes they embrace. Corbyn is the same nutjob he was when they tried to get rid of him, and now they fall at his feet because he succeeded in seducing students with eye watering and wholly unrealistic bribes. The PLP are even more stupid than I initially thought.
The serious business of politics and government have passed the Labour party by with this overt display of insanity.
Probably the most amusing aspect of this is how readily the so-called moderate Labourites warm to a terrorist sympathiser and his Maoist shadow chancellor now that it looks like they're not electoral poison after all. Suddenly Jezzer's not so bad after all. Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia.
"When I said I would die a bachelor, I did not think I should live till I were married."
This sordid business is really all down to the right wingers in the Conservative Party and their obsession with Europe. They are to blame, no -one else. I know of colleagues who astonished me in the Referendum by voting Leave over immigration and a wish to give Cameron a kicking, and who are now saying they want to STAY. Things have changed. By the way they live in the Stoke area!!!
If your colleagues voted for silly reasons, and now regret their decision, then how come you think "the Conservatives and no-one else" were to blame?
The FTPA process for calling an election outside the 2/3 is simple vote of NC in government and no vote of confidence passed on any new government within 14 days.
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
I was pondering the same. If they defeated Labour on every single vote it would backfire: better to avoid the obvious trap votes Labour would put in an vote for sensible measures ("for the public good").
A Labour minority government would be as much a nightmare for Corbyn as the current situation is for May. Probably worse, as I'm unconvinced that he actually wants the job.
On today's HoC numbers any opposition could make any minority government's life a nightmare. This parliament is not going to last 5 years! There'll be huge fun and games with dramas and tears and queenie is going to have to dissolve it and call another GE soon enough.
I seem to remember plenty of leading lights here and elsewhere saying the same thing about the 2010 coalition. The media speculated about it lasting a few months.
A lot of people are underestimating the Tories and the DUP. They will hold together because they have to.
The alternative is Corbyn PM and this country goes off a cliff edge.
The 2010 coalition had ?363? seats when formed. The 2017 arrangement will have ?327?
It's got much more in common with 1996/7, and we all know how well that went for Major and the Conservatives. Major had 336 seats in 1992, and ended up in a terrible situation wrt votes as seats leached away in by-elections.
So they're starting from a lower position than in 1992.
Wilson had a majority of 4 in October 74, and lasted for nearly 5 years. The Tories + DUP will have an effective majority of 13.
This government will go the distance. It is their duty to keep Corbyn away from the levers of power!
The key difference being that Wilson had an actual majority of MPs from his own party. Not a C&S deal with a bunch of regionalist bigots from a different party!
This sordid business is really all down to the right wingers in the Conservative Party and their obsession with Europe. They are to blame, no -one else. I know of colleagues who astonished me in the Referendum by voting Leave over immigration and a wish to give Cameron a kicking, and who are now saying they want to STAY. Things have changed. By the way they live in the Stoke area!!!
Yup, and I know of people who voted Remain because they were scared but would now vote Leave.
Labour's perceived success at this election was a flash in the pan. The Tories will never run a campaign as dire as this one again, they'll have a more public friendly PM (hopefully), and Corbyn and McDonnell will go on being the far left extremists they have always been.
The Tory manifesto sunk the Tories, not Corbyn. The polling pre and post manifesto proves that conclusively. And I wonder how many people would have voted Labour if they thought seriously that Corbyn could have been PM.
All the reasons why the PLP tried to remove Corbyn will remain, indeed, they will be intensified, and professional worms like Cooper and Umuna will regret grovelling at his feet.
With all due respect you were dead wrong about pretty much everything in the run up to the election so why would anyone give your latest analysis any credence?
The FTPA process for calling an election outside the 2/3 is simple vote of NC in government and no vote of confidence passed on any new government within 14 days.
Yes, it's not exactly watertight legislation!
How do you mean? It does what it is intended to do.
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a ch?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
I was pondering the same. If they defeated Labour on every single vote it would backfire: better to avoid the obvious trap votes Labour would put in an vote for sensible measures ("for the public good").
A Labour minority government would be as much a nightmare for Corbyn as the current situation is for May. Probably worse, as I'm unconvinced that he actually wants the job.
On today's HoC numbers any opposition could make any minority government's life a nightmare. This parliament is not going to last 5 years! There'll be huge fun and games with dramas and tears and queenie is going to have to dissolve it and call another GE soon enough.
I seem to remember plenty of leading lights here and elsewhere saying the same thing about the 2010 coalition. The media speculated about it lasting a few months.
A lot of people are underestimating the Tories and the DUP. They will hold together because they have to.
The alternative is Corbyn PM and this country goes off a cliff edge.
The 2010 coalition had ?363? seats when formed. The 2017 arrangement will have ?327?
It's got much more in common with 1996/7, and we all know how well that went for Major and the Conservatives. Major had 336 seats in 1992, and ended up in a terrible situation wrt votes as seats leached away in by-elections.
So they're starting from a lower position than in 1992.
Wilson had a majority of 4 in October 74, and lasted for nearly 5 years. The Tories + DUP will have an effective majority of 13.
This government will go the distance. It is their duty to keep Corbyn away from the levers of power!
This is not 1974.
Besides, think of what happened in the next elections after 1974 and 1992: both saw the government out and ushered in 10+ years of the opposition party. Small majorities are destructive to the governing party.
(And even 2010 was, if you think of the Lib Dems as a governing party back then).
It's not 1992 either. The Tories will go into the next election having delivered Brexit with a new leader and a less than atrocious campaign. The future's bright!
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
I was pondering the same. If they defeated Labour on every single vote it would backfire: better to avoid the obvious trap votes Labour would put in an vote for sensible measures ("for the public good").
A Labour minority government would be as much a nightmare for Corbyn as the current situation is for May. Probably worse, as I'm unconvinced that he actually wants the job.
On today's HoC numbers any opposition could make any minority government's life a nightmare. This parliament is not going to last 5 years! There'll be huge fun and games with dramas and tears and queenie is going to have to dissolve it and call another GE soon enough.
I seem to remember plenty of leading lights here and elsewhere saying the same thing about the 2010 coalition. The media speculated about it lasting a few months.
A lot of people are underestimating the Tories and the DUP. They will hold together because they have to.
The alternative is Corbyn PM and this country goes off a cliff edge.
The 2010 coalition had ?363? seats when formed. The 2017 arrangement will have ?327?
It's got much more in common with 1996/7, and we all know how well that went for Major and the Conservatives. Major had 336 seats in 1992, and ended up in a terrible situation wrt votes as seats leached away in by-elections.
So they're starting from a lower position than in 1992.
Wilson had a majority of 4 in October 74, and lasted for nearly 5 years. The Tories + DUP will have an effective majority of 13.
This government will go the distance. It is their duty to keep Corbyn away from the levers of power!
The key difference being that Wilson had an actual majority of MPs from his own party. Not a C&S deal with a bunch of regionalist bigots from a different party!
Well, depends rather how you characterise Liberal Party MPs of the day!
PB Tories seem almost desperate not to learn from this GE - why? If a Corbyn government is your worst nightmare the first thing you should want to do is to learn how you can win in the next GE. The thing is, I don't think all is lost for the Tories - politics is incredibly unpredictable at this time and anything could happen in theory, despite the mess the Tories are in now. But requires the party to move on from the 'Corbyn is terrible ' message, and it seems as if some on here think that they can go into the next GE and rely on Corbyn's weaknesses to get over the line.
Very true , nothing positive as a reason to vote for them , just totally negative message on their opponents . I expect the Conservative government to stagger along from crisis to crisis well behind Labour in the polls until the next GE which they lose heavily and then scratch their heads and wonder why .
Comments
He has done what Blair, Brown and Miliband all failed to do and has (seemingly) united the left.
It was a Test Match draw where one team (the Tories) has a massive run advantage. Jezza is Monty Panesar at Sophia Gardens against the Aussies.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2013/may/02/20-great-ashes-moments-cardiff
If the Tories for whatever reason could not get their QS through and Corbyn was given a chanc,e would it be possible for the Tories to abstain on the Labour QS but then use their larger number of seats to vote down and defeat Labour on every single vote after the QS.
At what point would it be possible for Labour to call another election? Could the Tories effectively keep them in Government but unable to pass any legislation?
Just to add, I am not saying they should, just wondering if it is technically possible.
But he's beaten off the rivals in the party twice already.
Blimey. Corbyn looking a little errm 'round'..
The Conservatives would be in a position to vote down a great deal of what Corbyn was putting forward. but if they voted down a Finance Bill, that would trigger a general election. And, governments also have considerable administrative powers.
Attlee.
A Labour minority government would be as much a nightmare for Corbyn as the current situation is for May. Probably worse, as I'm unconvinced that he actually wants the job.
7 by election defeats in a single parliament is far-fetched. And as I said earlier, the Tories and the DUP have an equal detestation of Corbyn.
I think you will be surprised how united the Tories and the DUP will be if it means keeping Corbyn away from government.
Shows just how weak the opposition must be, eh?
You can't get around the FPTA by just calling a bill a vote of confidence.
I think Attlee is the example, fighting 35 in opposition (Making gains) then winning 45.
If social media pre-election is a sign of how a Corbyn government will look, then it should be avoided at all costs.
A lot of people are underestimating the Tories and the DUP. They will hold together because they have to.
The alternative is Corbyn PM and this country goes off a cliff edge.
You were forecasting a landslide despite all of the above.
He will see the election as a legitimisation of his politics. We'll see how long the moderates can stomach that.
@SophyRidgeSky: Good news for people worried about the Gvt slipping back on Brexit - Steve Baker new Parliamentary Under-Secretary at Dpt for Exiting the EU
@KateEMcCann: Steve Baker, chief organiser of Brexiteers on the back-benches, gets a Government job at the Department for Exiting the EU.
@paulwaugh: Wow. now here's an appointment. May has given lead Brexiteer MP Steve Baker a job as minister in Brexit dept.
None of us covered ourselves with glory over predicting the outcome of the election.
Labour would certainly want another quick general election, and perhaps the Lib Dems. The Conservatives, SNP, DUP, all have their own reasons for not wanting another general election soon.
Kinnock obviously tried and failed.
The 2017 arrangement will have ?327?
It's got much more in common with 1996/7, and we all know how well that went for Major and the Conservatives. Major had 336 seats in 1992, and ended up in a terrible situation wrt votes as seats leached away in by-elections.
So they're starting from a lower position than in 1992.
I think the answer is Heath (lost 1966, won 1970)
This government will go the distance. It is their duty to keep Corbyn away from the levers of power!
If the latter think we will accept a very poor deal over none, then obviously they'll present a very poor deal. We know they would do this because they did it to Cameron when he asked for a deal and he had to take what he was given (barely any deal at all) and pretend it was a good deal (can anyone even remember what it was?).
To be able to walk away when the same treatment is offered again post-Article 50, it had first to be said out loud in a GE campaign that we'd walk away from a poor deal and settle for none. Because if it's not, the EU could just smirk when it's said (for the first time) in negotiation, and say, Tell that to the GBP. As it is, if May had her majority, she could indeed shrug and say to the GBP, OK, I told them we might get to this.
At that point, no deal has to be better than any deal for the EU also. If it's not, they have to blink and negotiations are back on.
Someone once said of the Cold War that it was tense because the West was playing poker and the East was playing chess. EU exit is now going to be painfully tense because only the EU can now play poker, while we are in fact playing Old Maids. Or Uno. Or Mille Bornes. Or something.
Following a NO confidence motion, there is 14 days for a motion of confidence to be passed, during which May would remain PM. In practice, she might rectify the matter herself (e.g. if she lost because the DUP by offering a sweetener). Alternatively, she might get a new coalition partner (unlikely, but in theory the Lib Dems, SNP or whatever). Alternatively, if she's the problem, the Conservatives could propose a new leader who can command the confidence of the House.
Corbyn only really comes into play if he can form a Government capable of commanding the confidence of the House. On the current maths - even with a few by-election losses - that's vanishingly unlikely as he'd need several coalition partners, not just one. His route, realistically, would be that a confidence motion is not passed within 14 days of the no confidence motion, and an early election ensues.
Besides, think of what happened in the next elections after 1974 and 1992: both saw the government out and ushered in 10+ years of the opposition party. Small majorities are destructive to the governing party.
(And even 2010 was, if you think of the Lib Dems as a governing party back then).
A confidence vote would very likely follow a Queen's Speech or Finance Bill defeat, but these would not be confidence votes in the meaning of the legislation.
"When I said I would die a bachelor, I did not think I should live till I were married."
Look in the mirror first then comment on others...
http://watpmagazine.co.uk/
Surprise surprise, it isn't a one way street.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2013/may/02/20-great-ashes-moments-cardiff