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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Being wrong about about Jeremy and being right about Jeremy
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Being wrong about about Jeremy and being right about Jeremy
“Can I have one of those”, said a young woman as I was walking along the road with a bundle of leaflets in my south London constituency. She was on her way home to collect her boyfriend before going to vote. She was having trouble deciding how to vote. “Is there anything in particular that is worrying you”, I asked. “I’m worried about terrorist attacks. I’m not sure that Labour can tackle it.”
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Corbyn improved in the campaign because his detractors were right, and he listened to them (unlike Tezza)
As I understand it, not all councils are following the Care Act to the letter. It is a lottery.
People end up taking them to Court to block sales of houses before death.
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/874567440298123264
Conversely, CCHQ focussing on targets 30+ down the Labour defence list with their slightly faulty intell might have cost them up to a dozen marginals in defence due to misallocated resource, and a handful of much easier Labour gains, of which they did achieve five.
The Conservatives could have ended at this election with anything from 290 seats to 335 seats *without changing virtually anything else*.
At one end you'd have Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister with SNP support (shudder). At the other, a chastened TM, with a similar majority to DC, and a firm lesson from the electorate, but also a majority of 20 to ride out the parliament.
The spread of seat totals and outcomes is vast for a relatively small vote redistribution.
https://mobile.twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/874584323088953345
My heart went straight into my mouth, and I had flashbacks to Robert Smithson's realisation of the Florida results last year, when he instantly did a U-turn, switched his position, and went long on Trump for the Presidency.
I don't buy the doom-mongering, nor that our EU membership is the UK's only lifeline.
That's lobbying designed to try and prevent Brexit before it takes place.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/austerity-is-over-may-tells-tories-vvhrjk0tj
No-one should listen to a word I say.
Although, in my defence, most of those were by small-ish margins (Tories largest party, 52%-48% to Remain!, Hillary narrowly by carrying Ohio/Penns, and GE2017 at 345 Con seats - well, until I got greedy and flipped to a big majority of 80-100 on the day, and lost a packet)
Once electability became his problem, though, he seems to have picked up a taste for it. On the stump, a lifetime’s commitment to unilateral nuclear disarmament (even as a vice-chairman of CND), retreated last year to “I wouldn’t personally use them” and last month, quite astonishingly, to something more like, “I certainly wouldn’t use them first”. Greenham Common it ain’t. More striking still was his response to the London Bridge attack, where having previously quite explicitly opposed a police shoot-to-kill policy, pretty much for ever, he now found himself explicitly supporting one. It was as if he had realised, finally, that to achieve broad electoral support you need to make the odd concession. “Took you long enough, Grandpa,” a generation of Blairites might have said.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/it-was-corbyn-s-flip-flopping-that-saved-him-0cbbsf857
http://news.sky.com/story/michel-barnier-warns-uk-it-faces-cliff-edge-no-deal-brexit-10913909
However, in his interview, Mr Barnier sounded increasingly impatient with the UK, saying: "I don't know what hard Brexit or soft Brexit means. I read yesterday 'Open Brexit' too! Brexit is withdrawal from the EU - it's the UK's decision. We're implementing it."
We're leaving and we've got to prepare and get on with it instead of all this angst-ridden hard and soft Brexit stuff.
A long way to go, but try, try & try again!
Anyhow like I've said before the impressive thing about the most effective bettors on this site isn't how much they're right, it's how swiftly and gracefully they reverse themselves when they're wrong.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/874550607180378112
All I can say is I hope the Tory party doesn't shows Theresa May the same loyalty Nadine Dorries showed David Cameron
Sadly for those who are having to deal with Brexit on a daily basis, we've been proved right.
Theresa triggered Article 50 nearly three months ago, then wasted 7 weeks on a general election, and we're even further away from any Brexit deal.
Brown stripe moment for me too.
Stay strong and stable everyone.
@tnewtondunn: Latest: I understand that a deal with the DUP today is by no means guaranteed. Quite a bit of hard ball is being played.
I posted this at 1.18am on election night.
If you’re not mentally prepared for Corbyn as Prime Minister, then you should be.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/09/if-youre-not-mentally-prepared-for-corbyn-as-prime-minister-then-you-should-be/
After all, even on last year's results, it only needs a 2% swing for Remain to get ahead. I have the feeling now that Remain is now ahead.
What happens if polls start showing Remain 10% ahead. A head of steam is building already.
Just a bit cynical there, aren`t you, Mr Brind?
Is it the line dancing line in the sand?
https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/874585234972520448
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/874596004171059200
10/1 does seem good odds when you consider the likes of Burgon and Bailey-Long are inferior products.
I wish i could say the same of the right wing Tories who are foisting this on us. They've always been out for themselves and their own. They've seldon shown compassion or judgement. They have added sweet FA to the betterment of anyone. Infact the more I think about it the more I believe the DUP have found their spiritual home.
We pay our bills and then out we go on WTO terms.