politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Life comes at you fast these days doesn’t it Mrs May?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Life comes at you fast these days doesn’t it Mrs May?
For all future party leaders, I have a bit of advice for you, be nice to the people you meet on the way up, because you’ll eventually meet them on the way down, when you need them the most.
Comments
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Couldn't happen to a nicer woman.0
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So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?0
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Expect pushback from the my party right or wrong brigade...0
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One wonders what she said to Michael Gove. Obviously either it was less stinging or he is more forgiving.0
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Some of the comments on the last thread are absolutely laughable.Nigelb said:Expect pushback from the my party right or wrong brigade...
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If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.0 -
For those on the left, since 8th June it has become a delight to read threads here written by Conservatives about their own party.
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I'm used to it.Nigelb said:Expect pushback from the my party right or wrong brigade...
For a year, they kept on telling me I was bitter, that the posh boys were crap and Mrs May was awesome.0 -
A very nice email from Skybet:
"We're writing in relation to a bet you placed on our General Election RequestABets market.
Due to a technical error, the "Conservatives to win 300-349 seats, Labour 200-249 & turnout 65.01% - 70.00%" selection was settled incorrectly as a winner, with Labour actually winning 262 seats.
Normally in this situation we would resettle your bet with the correct result, however on this occasion we are truly making betting better and allowing your bet to remain settled as a winner!"
I had a tenner at 14/1.
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You mean my threads weren't a delight to read before June 8th?Wulfrun_Phil said:For those on the left, since 8th June it has become a delight to read threads here written by Conservatives about their own party.
*I retire wounded*0 -
Maybe she should do a sorry video like Nick Clegg did over student loans...AlastairMeeks said:One wonders what she said to Michael Gove. Obviously either it was less stinging or he is more forgiving.
:-)
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Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?0
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I'm sure it must be a delight. For so many Conservatives, their true enemies reside in their own party.Wulfrun_Phil said:For those on the left, since 8th June it has become a delight to read threads here written by Conservatives about their own party.
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Depends if she makes Ben Wallace a minister in Gove's departmentAlastairMeeks said:One wonders what she said to Michael Gove. Obviously either it was less stinging or he is more forgiving.
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I think this will all be overtaken by events. The next few weeks will be torrid for her.TheScreamingEagles said:
If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.0 -
Yes. Perhaps they should join Ukip?Sean_F said:
I'm sure it must be a delight. For so many Conservatives, their true enemies reside in their own party.Wulfrun_Phil said:For those on the left, since 8th June it has become a delight to read threads here written by Conservatives about their own party.
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She has thrown away 3 years of majority government, and is now unable to choose her advisers, or cabinet. This government will be unable to pass anything in the slightest controversial. Any other PM will be in the same boat. This is the biggest failure in politics I can remember. It is not Osborne, Corbyn, her advisers, the press, or Coco the Clowns fault, but hers alone. She needs to own it, and her former cheerleaders may be wise to reflect on it.0
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As someone right leaning, in a best of a bad bunch sort of way, I must say I'm delighted that Labour are now stuck with Corbyn and watching the volte-face movements of the "moderates" is the cherry on top.Wulfrun_Phil said:For those on the left, since 8th June it has become a delight to read threads here written by Conservatives about their own party.
Tories are in the shit no doubt, but Labour has made a catastrophic error with their adoption of hard left policies and persons.0 -
You jammy bastard.foxinsoxuk said:A very nice email from Skybet:
"We're writing in relation to a bet you placed on our General Election RequestABets market.
Due to a technical error, the "Conservatives to win 300-349 seats, Labour 200-249 & turnout 65.01% - 70.00%" selection was settled incorrectly as a winner, with Labour actually winning 262 seats.
Normally in this situation we would resettle your bet with the correct result, however on this occasion we are truly making betting better and allowing your bet to remain settled as a winner!"
I had a tenner at 14/1.0 -
You think she can/will last two more years? Really?TheScreamingEagles said:
If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.0 -
LD candidates lost 375 deposits, Farron must be wary of a push for another General Election.0
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They really don't know what they're doing.foxinsoxuk said:A very nice email from Skybet:
"We're writing in relation to a bet you placed on our General Election RequestABets market.
Due to a technical error, the "Conservatives to win 300-349 seats, Labour 200-249 & turnout 65.01% - 70.00%" selection was settled incorrectly as a winner, with Labour actually winning 262 seats.
Normally in this situation we would resettle your bet with the correct result, however on this occasion we are truly making betting better and allowing your bet to remain settled as a winner!"
I had a tenner at 14/1.0 -
It's possible that both May and the posh boys are crap, that's certainly a view I subscribe to.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm used it.Nigelb said:Expect pushback from the my party right or wrong brigade...
For a year, they kept on telling me I was bitter, that the posh boys were crap and Mrs May was awesome.0 -
If you get an email like that from a firm, give up!Pong said:
They really don't know what they're doing.foxinsoxuk said:A very nice email from Skybet:
"We're writing in relation to a bet you placed on our General Election RequestABets market.
Due to a technical error, the "Conservatives to win 300-349 seats, Labour 200-249 & turnout 65.01% - 70.00%" selection was settled incorrectly as a winner, with Labour actually winning 262 seats.
Normally in this situation we would resettle your bet with the correct result, however on this occasion we are truly making betting better and allowing your bet to remain settled as a winner!"
I had a tenner at 14/1.0 -
It may well suit everyone for her to be the Brexit Prime Minister.Bobajob_PB said:
You think she can/will last two more years? Really?TheScreamingEagles said:
If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.0 -
You clearly didn't live through the 70s... but otherwise, agreed.dixiedean said:She has thrown away 3 years of majority government, and is now unable to choose her advisers, or cabinet. This government will be unable to pass anything in the slightest controversial. Any other PM will be in the same boat. This is the biggest failure in politics I can remember...
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Or he's more desperate / has less shame?AlastairMeeks said:One wonders what she said to Michael Gove. Obviously either it was less stinging or he is more forgiving.
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306 seatsglw said:
It's possible that both May and the posh boys are crap, that's certainly a view I subscribe to.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm used it.Nigelb said:Expect pushback from the my party right or wrong brigade...
For a year, they kept on telling me I was bitter, that the posh boys were crap and Mrs May was awesome.
330 seats
318 seats
The market is the truth!
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Thinking about second election betting (StanJames offering roughly 1/3 on no second election this year) - how late in the year do we have to get before there simply isn't time? I guess it depends on how the election is called.
Vote of no confidence is 5 weeks, right? That's 2 weeks for a second confidence vote not to pass and then 3 weeks for the campaign. But anything else would be slower?
If the Tories chose to have a second election, might they avoid a winter date? 1974 was Feb and October, but we're already in June. Not long now if we don't want a freezing campaign. On the other hand, MPs may not have that level of control. If the DUP deal collapses it's election right now.
DYOR, but I don't feel that a second election imminently is likely, even 25% likely (for 1/3 being value on it not happening).The Tories haven't gone for one over the weekend, and they are close enough to 325 that I imagine they'll try to form a minority even if the DUP don't agree. A no confidence vote could be forced, but as some have discussed below no-one bar Labour (and possibly even some of them) want a snap election.0 -
Is Murdoch still paying Give £150000 a year to pedal his ideas in cabinet?0
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I suspect if the DUP start playing silly beggars, there'll be enough Tory MPs rebelling to cause the government to lose votes.tlg86 said:
I think this will all be overtaken by events. The next few weeks will be torrid for her.TheScreamingEagles said:
If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.
There's some really idiocy coming from the DUP and their supporters.0 -
glw said:
As someone right leaning, in a best of a bad bunch sort of way, I must say I'm delighted that Labour are now stuck with Corbyn and watching the volte-face movements of the "moderates" is the cherry on top.Wulfrun_Phil said:For those on the left, since 8th June it has become a delight to read threads here written by Conservatives about their own party.
Tories are in the shit no doubt, but Labour has made a catastrophic error with their adoption of hard left policies and persons.
... 40% voted for Labour - compared with the 37% who voted for Cameron's majority government in 2015. Some error. The Tories only beat then with 42% share because most of UKIP voted Tory expecting a hard Brexit, which can't be delivered. 0 -
Isn't there a Churchill quote about the House of Commons.....something to the effect that the Opposition is in front of you and the enemy behind?Sean_F said:
I'm sure it must be a delight. For so many Conservatives, their true enemies reside in their own party.Wulfrun_Phil said:For those on the left, since 8th June it has become a delight to read threads here written by Conservatives about their own party.
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Quite clearly the Conservatives need Osborne running the campaign and Gove figuring out the policies. I can't see either of those tolerating doing that so Boris can be (or stay) PM.
The hubris from Labour didn't take long to develop; 64 seats off a majority of 1 and they're celebrating victory already!0 -
I hadn't spotted it myself.tlg86 said:
You jammy bastard.foxinsoxuk said:A very nice email from Skybet:
"We're writing in relation to a bet you placed on our General Election RequestABets market.
Due to a technical error, the "Conservatives to win 300-349 seats, Labour 200-249 & turnout 65.01% - 70.00%" selection was settled incorrectly as a winner, with Labour actually winning 262 seats.
Normally in this situation we would resettle your bet with the correct result, however on this occasion we are truly making betting better and allowing your bet to remain settled as a winner!"
I had a tenner at 14/1.
Overall I came out of the night up a couple of hundred. I did a quick reverse ferret on the exit poll on Betfair, and my search for Labour gains made up for other losses.
If Hammond, or Rudd gets paid out as next PM it would be luvverly.
I don't have a feel for next Tory leader, so will cash out for the summer.0 -
Oh yes I did. I remember the 3 day week and power cuts under the Conservatives. Even Ted only threw away a years majority government!Nigelb said:
You clearly didn't live through the 70s... but otherwise, agreed.dixiedean said:She has thrown away 3 years of majority government, and is now unable to choose her advisers, or cabinet. This government will be unable to pass anything in the slightest controversial. Any other PM will be in the same boat. This is the biggest failure in politics I can remember...
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Personally as long as she gets the Queens Speech through the summer recess will be on us and I would expect she would give notice she will stand down after an Autumn successor electionBobajob_PB said:
You think she can/will last two more years? Really?TheScreamingEagles said:
If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.0 -
I think that's true of all parties.Sean_F said:
I'm sure it must be a delight. For so many Conservatives, their true enemies reside in their own party.Wulfrun_Phil said:For those on the left, since 8th June it has become a delight to read threads here written by Conservatives about their own party.
There are always people for whom personal vendetta outweighs reason.0 -
Perhaps time for a May exit date thread.Bobajob_PB said:
You think she can/will last two more years? Really?TheScreamingEagles said:
If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.
The only thing keeping her in office is the understandable reluctance of would be replacement leaders to accept the hospital pass.
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Want me to post the bar chart showing the number of net gains Cameron made vs the number of net gains Mrs May made?glw said:
It's possible that both May and the posh boys are crap, that's certainly a view I subscribe to.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm used it.Nigelb said:Expect pushback from the my party right or wrong brigade...
For a year, they kept on telling me I was bitter, that the posh boys were crap and Mrs May was awesome.
I don't even have to go all Lib Dem to make that bar chart look bad.0 -
Listening to Vince Cable today he was surprisingly supportive of Maydr_spyn said:LD candidates lost 375 deposits, Farron must be wary of a push for another General Election.
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The SNP would be desperate to avoid one. In the near future they'd be carved apart by tactical voting everywhere. The voters would now know exactly how to oust them.Quincel said:Thinking about second election betting (StanJames offering roughly 1/3 on no second election this year) - how late in the year do we have to get before there simply isn't time? I guess it depends on how the election is called.
Vote of no confidence is 5 weeks, right? That's 2 weeks for a second confidence vote not to pass and then 3 weeks for the campaign. But anything else would be slower?
If the Tories chose to have a second election, might they avoid a winter date? 1974 was Feb and October, but we're already in June. Not long now if we don't want a freezing campaign. On the other hand, MPs may not have that level of control. If the DUP deal collapses it's election right now.
DYOR, but I don't feel that a second election imminently is likely, even 25% likely (for 1/3 being value on it not happening).The Tories haven't gone for one over the weekend, and they are close enough to 325 that I imagine they'll try to form a minority even if the DUP don't agree. A no confidence vote could be forced, but as some have discussed below no-one bar Labour (and possibly even some of them) want a snap election.
The tricky question for them is how to avoid being seen to be propping up Tories.
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They did not throw away 3 years of majority government away in the 1970s.Nigelb said:
You clearly didn't live through the 70s... but otherwise, agreed.dixiedean said:She has thrown away 3 years of majority government, and is now unable to choose her advisers, or cabinet. This government will be unable to pass anything in the slightest controversial. Any other PM will be in the same boat. This is the biggest failure in politics I can remember...
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Hah I'm staying out of that marketQuincel said:Thinking about second election betting (StanJames offering roughly 1/3 on no second election this year) - how late in the year do we have to get before there simply isn't time? I guess it depends on how the election is called.
Vote of no confidence is 5 weeks, right? That's 2 weeks for a second confidence vote not to pass and then 3 weeks for the campaign. But anything else would be slower?
If the Tories chose to have a second election, might they avoid a winter date? 1974 was Feb and October, but we're already in June. Not long now if we don't want a freezing campaign. On the other hand, MPs may not have that level of control. If the DUP deal collapses it's election right now.
DYOR, but I don't feel that a second election imminently is likely, even 25% likely (for 1/3 being value on it not happening).The Tories haven't gone for one over the weekend, and they are close enough to 325 that I imagine they'll try to form a minority even if the DUP don't agree. A no confidence vote could be forced, but as some have discussed below no-one bar Labour (and possibly even some of them) want a snap election.
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Go ahead, but it won't change my opinion the Cameron screwed up the referendum and that Osborne is a berk.TheScreamingEagles said:Want me to post the bar chart showing the number of net gains Cameron made vs the number of net gains Mrs May made?
I don't even have to go all Lib Dem to make that bar chart look bad.
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I do have a sneaking suspicion I'll check Twitter any minute and find out I've lost.Pulpstar said:
Hah I'm staying out of that marketQuincel said:Thinking about second election betting (StanJames offering roughly 1/3 on no second election this year) - how late in the year do we have to get before there simply isn't time? I guess it depends on how the election is called.
Vote of no confidence is 5 weeks, right? That's 2 weeks for a second confidence vote not to pass and then 3 weeks for the campaign. But anything else would be slower?
If the Tories chose to have a second election, might they avoid a winter date? 1974 was Feb and October, but we're already in June. Not long now if we don't want a freezing campaign. On the other hand, MPs may not have that level of control. If the DUP deal collapses it's election right now.
DYOR, but I don't feel that a second election imminently is likely, even 25% likely (for 1/3 being value on it not happening).The Tories haven't gone for one over the weekend, and they are close enough to 325 that I imagine they'll try to form a minority even if the DUP don't agree. A no confidence vote could be forced, but as some have discussed below no-one bar Labour (and possibly even some of them) want a snap election.0 -
I think its a safe assumption that the whole lot of them are crap until proven otherwise.glw said:
It's possible that both May and the posh boys are crap, that's certainly a view I subscribe to.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm used it.Nigelb said:Expect pushback from the my party right or wrong brigade...
For a year, they kept on telling me I was bitter, that the posh boys were crap and Mrs May was awesome.
Worryingly I suspect that they're no better than the country deserves.0 -
I'm sorry, I'm being dense I know, but who?isam said:Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?
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It will be a hell of a lot easier for the Tories to occupy the centre ground now that Labour has unequivocally left it.Barnesian said: ... 40% voted for Labour - compared with the 37% who voted for Cameron's majority government in 2015. Some error. The Tories only beat then with 42% share because most of UKIP voted Tory expecting a hard Brexit, which can't be delivered.0 -
FPT:
I'm not sure about that.View_From_Cumbria said:Also, as far as I can see Macron is naturally closer to Corbyn than anyone else in our political spectrum.
Macron is an Enarque, and an ex-investment banker globalist free marketeer, who believes the state is too big and wants to liberalise France's sclerotic labour market.
Corbyn has no great academic achievements, despises business, is naturally suspicious of the EU and would increase regulation and taxes.
I'm not sure there is an obvious comparable for Macron. He talks the language of the Left, while proposing the solutions of the free market Right. His programme is as free market as Fillon's, and massively more so than Le Pen, Melanchon or the socialist. He's possibly the most pro-free trade French President in history. He's instictively pro-EU, but - as is so often the case in France - is so, because he sees the EU as a way of advancing France's interests.
Will he succeed?
I don't know. France is badly broken, and reform often fails on the barricades as lorry drivers and farmers blockade roads and ports to force government climb downs. But I'll give you one thing: he'll try.0 -
I wouldn't disagree with any of that, but there is an opportunity opening up if smarter politicians are willing to seize it.another_richard said:I think its a safe assumption that the whole lot of them are crap until proven otherwise.
Worryingly I suspect that they're no better than the country deserves.
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Do you not think project Tory-DUP retox gives the SNP a bit of pushback. I think Scotland is going to remember why it hates the Tories again... Of course the obvious beneficiary of both currents is ... Scottish Labour - a force written off only two years ago !AlastairMeeks said:
The SNP would be desperate to avoid one. In the near future they'd be carved apart by tactical voting everywhere. The voters would now know exactly how to oust them.
The tricky question for them is how to avoid being seen to be propping up Tories.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.
That seems a very sensible time scale.
Surely no one wants to take over even in a caretaker capacity until Brexit is over. Scratch that I've just remembered Mr Gove!0 -
You think in a 2 party election Cameron would have lost to Corbyn? Or done worse than May? Really?Barnesian said:glw said:
As someone right leaning, in a best of a bad bunch sort of way, I must say I'm delighted that Labour are now stuck with Corbyn and watching the volte-face movements of the "moderates" is the cherry on top.Wulfrun_Phil said:For those on the left, since 8th June it has become a delight to read threads here written by Conservatives about their own party.
Tories are in the shit no doubt, but Labour has made a catastrophic error with their adoption of hard left policies and persons. ... 40% voted for Labour - compared with the 37% who voted for Cameron's majority government in 2015. Some error. The Tories only beat then with 42% share because most of UKIP voted Tory expecting a hard Brexit, which can't be delivered.0 -
I agree Big_G, that sounds most likely. Why would she want to linger? Her career is clearly trashed and I can't image being in office without power is any fun at all. Then the big question is does her successor seek a fresh mandate?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Personally as long as she gets the Queens Speech through the summer recess will be on us and I would expect she would give notice she will stand down after an Autumn successor electionBobajob_PB said:
You think she can/will last two more years? Really?TheScreamingEagles said:
If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.0 -
Occupy the centre ground with the LibDems?glw said:
It will be a hell of a lot easier for the Tories to occupy the centre ground now that Labour has unequivocally left it.Barnesian said: ... 40% voted for Labour - compared with the 37% who voted for Cameron's majority government in 2015. Some error. The Tories only beat then with 42% share because most of UKIP voted Tory expecting a hard Brexit, which can't be delivered.0 -
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/873978710038388737glw said:
Go ahead, but it won't change my opinion the Cameron screwed up the referendum and that Osborne is a berk.TheScreamingEagles said:Want me to post the bar chart showing the number of net gains Cameron made vs the number of net gains Mrs May made?
I don't even have to go all Lib Dem to make that bar chart look bad.0 -
Indeed, Macron is nothing like Corbyn, he is a Europhile, economic centrist, if anything he is closest to Nick Clegg from the UK perspective. Corbyn is basically a British Melenchon, a mild Eurosceptic and hardline socialistrcs1000 said:FPT:
I'm not sure about that.View_From_Cumbria said:Also, as far as I can see Macron is naturally closer to Corbyn than anyone else in our political spectrum.
Macron is an Enarque, and an ex-investment banker globalist free marketeer, who believes the state is too big and wants to liberalise France's sclerotic labour market.
Corbyn has no great academic achievements, despises business, is naturally suspicious of the EU and would increase regulation and taxes.
I'm not sure there is an obvious comparable for Macron. He talks the language of the Left, while proposing the solutions of the free market Right. His programme is as free market as Fillon's, and massively more so than Le Pen, Melanchon or the socialist. He's possibly the most pro-free trade French President in history. He's instictively pro-EU, but - as is so often the case in France - is so, because he sees the EU as a way of advancing France's interests.
Will he succeed?
I don't know. France is badly broken, and reform often fails on the barricades as lorry drivers and farmers blockade roads and ports to force government climb downs. But I'll give you one thing: he'll try.0 -
Well I suppose Mrs May threw away 12 seats in a campaign, Cameron and Osborne threw away the economic prosperity of the country for a generation. Let's call it a tie?0
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Super Nigel Farage!Benpointer said:
I'm sorry, I'm being dense I know, but who?isam said:Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?
If he was Conservative Leader, is there any doubt he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn? Majority of 100 odd0 -
Same old Leavers. Never listen.Never learn. Never their fault.glw said:
Go ahead, but it won't change my opinion the Cameron screwed up the referendum and that Osborne is a berk.TheScreamingEagles said:Want me to post the bar chart showing the number of net gains Cameron made vs the number of net gains Mrs May made?
I don't even have to go all Lib Dem to make that bar chart look bad.0 -
They also increased their number of seats by 50%, and came within about four hundred votes of doubling their representation. Another election might well see them capture St Ives, Richmond Park, Fife NE and Cheltenham.dr_spyn said:LD candidates lost 375 deposits, Farron must be wary of a push for another General Election.
While things obviously didn't play out as well for them as they'd hoped at the beginning of the campaign, I suspect senior LibDems feel they've done OK.0 -
That would be for the best, but I am not at all convinced that TM thinks like that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Personally as long as she gets the Queens Speech through the summer recess will be on us and I would expect she would give notice she will stand down after an Autumn successor electionBobajob_PB said:
You think she can/will last two more years? Really?TheScreamingEagles said:
If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.
She may have no choice. I forsee a spring 2018 election.0 -
Some Conservative Cabinet ministers are privately lobbying the Theresa May to alter her Brexit plan from an "ideologically driven" approach to a "pragmatic Brexit".
The new approach would have "fewer things being ruled out" after the Prime Minister's failure to secure an increased mandate at the General Election.
One senior Cabinet source told Sky News: "What we were proposing genuinely didn't get enough buy-in.
"The British public themselves haven't reached a conclusion on what they want from Brexit.
"We need to recognise the outcome... people want practical pragmatism with fewer things being ruled out - not an ideologically-driven approach."
The election result also raises a question about the democratic legitimacy of the overall approach to Brexit.
"How do you get a legitimate decision? How does it have legitimacy? It's not instantly obvious," said the Cabinet minister.
The fact that the PM asked British voters to strengthen her hand in negotiations but instead they reduced her majority might now mean a clear parliamentary vote is required after any Brexit deal.
http://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-urged-to-ditch-her-brexit-approach-for-pragmatism-109127100 -
As an aside, if the LDs had swapped 1,000 votes in Westmoreland & Lonsdale for half that number in St Ives, Richmond Park and Fife NE, then they would have had a truly spectacular night.rcs1000 said:
They also increased their number of seats by 50%, and came within about four hundred votes of doubling their representation. Another election might well see them capture St Ives, Richmond Park, Fife NE and Cheltenham.dr_spyn said:LD candidates lost 375 deposits, Farron must be wary of a push for another General Election.
While things obviously didn't play out as well for them as they'd hoped at the beginning of the campaign, I suspect senior LibDems feel they've done OK.0 -
Cameron was clearly the best leader to take the Tories into power from opposition but to be fair to May she did get 42% of the vote 7 years into a Tory governmentTheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/873978710038388737glw said:
Go ahead, but it won't change my opinion the Cameron screwed up the referendum and that Osborne is a berk.TheScreamingEagles said:Want me to post the bar chart showing the number of net gains Cameron made vs the number of net gains Mrs May made?
I don't even have to go all Lib Dem to make that bar chart look bad.0 -
Much depends on the DUP's price. Retaining the triple lock and securing an increased role for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in Brexit would be unlikely to scare the horses.Pulpstar said:
Do you not think project Tory-DUP retox gives the SNP a bit of pushback. I think Scotland is going to remember why it hates the Tories again... Of course the obvious beneficiary of both currents is ... Scottish Labour - a force written off only two years ago !AlastairMeeks said:
The SNP would be desperate to avoid one. In the near future they'd be carved apart by tactical voting everywhere. The voters would now know exactly how to oust them.
The tricky question for them is how to avoid being seen to be propping up Tories.
Making 12 July a bank holiday would.0 -
Actually, it's a better day to have a bank holiday than the dates suggested by Corbyn. But I think it's unlikely to happen for obvious reasons.AlastairMeeks said:
Much depends on the DUP's price. Retaining the triple lock and securing an increased role for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in Brexit would be unlikely to scare the horses.Pulpstar said:
Do you not think project Tory-DUP retox gives the SNP a bit of pushback. I think Scotland is going to remember why it hates the Tories again... Of course the obvious beneficiary of both currents is ... Scottish Labour - a force written off only two years ago !AlastairMeeks said:
The SNP would be desperate to avoid one. In the near future they'd be carved apart by tactical voting everywhere. The voters would now know exactly how to oust them.
The tricky question for them is how to avoid being seen to be propping up Tories.
Making 12 July a bank holiday would.0 -
There are more supporters of the Orange Order in Scotland than in the entirety of England and Wales combinedPulpstar said:
Do you not think project Tory-DUP retox gives the SNP a bit of pushback. I think Scotland is going to remember why it hates the Tories again... Of course the obvious beneficiary of both currents is ... Scottish Labour - a force written off only two years ago !AlastairMeeks said:
The SNP would be desperate to avoid one. In the near future they'd be carved apart by tactical voting everywhere. The voters would now know exactly how to oust them.
The tricky question for them is how to avoid being seen to be propping up Tories.0 -
Loads of doubt. One thing the Tories got wrong was to neglect the domestic agenda, Farage is even worse at that.isam said:
Super Nigel Farage!Benpointer said:
I'm sorry, I'm being dense I know, but who?isam said:Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?
If he was Conservative Leader, is there any doubt he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn? Majority of 100 odd0 -
Is there one for majorities won and lost too?TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/873978710038388737glw said:
Go ahead, but it won't change my opinion the Cameron screwed up the referendum and that Osborne is a berk.TheScreamingEagles said:Want me to post the bar chart showing the number of net gains Cameron made vs the number of net gains Mrs May made?
I don't even have to go all Lib Dem to make that bar chart look bad.0 -
Liverpool's new MP barred.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/youre-barred-liverpools-newest-mp-131710300 -
I both can't see how the Tories can hold a second election during Brexit negotiations, and can't see how they can avoid it. My judgement is that they've chosen the former path and may be tripped up by it later.foxinsoxuk said:
That would be for the best, but I am not at all convinced that TM thinks like that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Personally as long as she gets the Queens Speech through the summer recess will be on us and I would expect she would give notice she will stand down after an Autumn successor electionBobajob_PB said:
You think she can/will last two more years? Really?TheScreamingEagles said:
If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.
She may have no choice. I forsee a spring 2018 election.0 -
0
-
Let me work on that.midwinter said:
Is there one for majorities won and lost too?TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/873978710038388737glw said:
Go ahead, but it won't change my opinion the Cameron screwed up the referendum and that Osborne is a berk.TheScreamingEagles said:Want me to post the bar chart showing the number of net gains Cameron made vs the number of net gains Mrs May made?
I don't even have to go all Lib Dem to make that bar chart look bad.0 -
No, Corbyn might even have beaten Farage, it would have been the British equivalent of Le Pen v Melenchonisam said:
Super Nigel Farage!Benpointer said:
I'm sorry, I'm being dense I know, but who?isam said:Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?
If he was Conservative Leader, is there any doubt he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn? Majority of 100 odd0 -
Now c.20k - peaked at 250k !HYUFD said:
There are more supporters of the Orange Order in Scotland than in the entirety of England and Wales combinedPulpstar said:
Do you not think project Tory-DUP retox gives the SNP a bit of pushback. I think Scotland is going to remember why it hates the Tories again... Of course the obvious beneficiary of both currents is ... Scottish Labour - a force written off only two years ago !AlastairMeeks said:
The SNP would be desperate to avoid one. In the near future they'd be carved apart by tactical voting everywhere. The voters would now know exactly how to oust them.
The tricky question for them is how to avoid being seen to be propping up Tories.0 -
It's a truly terrifying thought! But I suspect he is too extreme for the moderate middle. Worth remembering he has never been elected to Westminster in how many attempts? He's clever though, I'll grant you that.isam said:
Super Nigel Farage!Benpointer said:
I'm sorry, I'm being dense I know, but who?isam said:Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?
If he was Conservative Leader, is there any doubt he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn? Majority of 100 odd0 -
Wasn't it once said that 'the Conservative party was all about being in power' ?Sean_F said:
I'm sure it must be a delight. For so many Conservatives, their true enemies reside in their own party.Wulfrun_Phil said:For those on the left, since 8th June it has become a delight to read threads here written by Conservatives about their own party.
But as British political, military and economic power has dwindled and British governments become more and more restricted in what they can do perhaps the only thing that Conservative politicians can have power over is the Conservative party. Hence the feuding and bitterness within it.
There are, of course, attempts by Conservative politicians to strut about the world stage posturing as the new Churchill or Thatcher - Cameron's vanity wars and overseas aid profligacy for example or May with Trump - but they're weak and usually disastrous echoes of how things once were.0 -
Not if Farage was Leader of Conservative PartyHYUFD said:
No, Corbyn might even have beaten Farage, it would have been the British equivalent of Le Pen v Melenchonisam said:
Super Nigel Farage!Benpointer said:
I'm sorry, I'm being dense I know, but who?isam said:Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?
If he was Conservative Leader, is there any doubt he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn? Majority of 100 odd0 -
The ideal scenario for Labour is that she clings on and on, with the DUP and various rebellious factions in her own party causing utter chaos on a weekly basis, but it wouldn't be much good for the country. The likely behaviour of the Tory europhiles has been barely commented on thus far, but Anna Soubry didn't look in much of a mood to tow the line when she was interviewed this morning on Marr.Nigelb said:
Perhaps time for a May exit date thread.Bobajob_PB said:
You think she can/will last two more years? Really?TheScreamingEagles said:
If she gets a Queen's speech passed, I think she'll be safe until the conference.tlg86 said:So when will May be gone? And by that I mean when will she announce she's going?
Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.
The only thing keeping her in office is the understandable reluctance of would be replacement leaders to accept the hospital pass.
Recess is on 21 July, which means she still has six weeks to cling on just to make it to the summer break. She can probably do it, but it's not guaranteed. Nothing is anymore.0 -
And Cameron created the vacancy for May to fill, and (by leaving her as Home Sec for so long) the illusion that she was of more political use than a filigree condom. If the posh boys weren't crap, they would today be PM and CotE.glw said:
It's possible that both May and the posh boys are crap, that's certainly a view I subscribe to.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm used it.Nigelb said:Expect pushback from the my party right or wrong brigade...
For a year, they kept on telling me I was bitter, that the posh boys were crap and Mrs May was awesome.0 -
Zero defenses vs Labour next time round makes for an interesting dynamic.rcs1000 said:
They also increased their number of seats by 50%, and came within about four hundred votes of doubling their representation. Another election might well see them capture St Ives, Richmond Park, Fife NE and Cheltenham.dr_spyn said:LD candidates lost 375 deposits, Farron must be wary of a push for another General Election.
While things obviously didn't play out as well for them as they'd hoped at the beginning of the campaign, I suspect senior LibDems feel they've done OK.0 -
A Farage led Tory Party would have made zero gains in Scotland and while it may have made a few more gains in Leave areas of England and Wales it would have lost seats like Cheltenham and Lewes the Tories just held from the LDsisam said:
Not if Farage was Leader of Conservative PartyHYUFD said:
No, Corbyn might even have beaten Farage, it would have been the British equivalent of Le Pen v Melenchonisam said:
Super Nigel Farage!Benpointer said:
I'm sorry, I'm being dense I know, but who?isam said:Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?
If he was Conservative Leader, is there any doubt he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn? Majority of 100 odd
0 -
You're comparing apples and oranges in terms of starting seats, time in power, and quality of opponent. In response to your earlier post I do now accept that May is crap too.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/873978710038388737glw said:
Go ahead, but it won't change my opinion the Cameron screwed up the referendum and that Osborne is a berk.TheScreamingEagles said:Want me to post the bar chart showing the number of net gains Cameron made vs the number of net gains Mrs May made?
I don't even have to go all Lib Dem to make that bar chart look bad.0 -
Blimey, not a tweet I was expecting to see
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/8739789015880622100 -
Farron only just held on in Westmoreland. One last heave.Pulpstar said:
Zero defenses vs Labour next time round makes for an interesting dynamic.rcs1000 said:
They also increased their number of seats by 50%, and came within about four hundred votes of doubling their representation. Another election might well see them capture St Ives, Richmond Park, Fife NE and Cheltenham.dr_spyn said:LD candidates lost 375 deposits, Farron must be wary of a push for another General Election.
While things obviously didn't play out as well for them as they'd hoped at the beginning of the campaign, I suspect senior LibDems feel they've done OK.0 -
Unfortunately certain parts of the Conservative party consider you aren't a true Tory unless you have an all consuming obsession with the EU.foxinsoxuk said:
Loads of doubt. One thing the Tories got wrong was to neglect the domestic agenda, Farage is even worse at that.isam said:
Super Nigel Farage!Benpointer said:
I'm sorry, I'm being dense I know, but who?isam said:Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?
If he was Conservative Leader, is there any doubt he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn? Majority of 100 odd
It's never ceases to amaze them when the electorate find that view...odd.To the extent of preferring Jeremy Corbyn in some cases.0 -
You have to factor in the time for a leadership election.Quincel said:Thinking about second election betting (StanJames offering roughly 1/3 on no second election this year) - how late in the year do we have to get before there simply isn't time? I guess it depends on how the election is called.
Vote of no confidence is 5 weeks, right? That's 2 weeks for a second confidence vote not to pass and then 3 weeks for the campaign. But anything else would be slower?
If the Tories chose to have a second election, might they avoid a winter date? 1974 was Feb and October, but we're already in June. Not long now if we don't want a freezing campaign. On the other hand, MPs may not have that level of control. If the DUP deal collapses it's election right now.
DYOR, but I don't feel that a second election imminently is likely, even 25% likely (for 1/3 being value on it not happening).The Tories haven't gone for one over the weekend, and they are close enough to 325 that I imagine they'll try to form a minority even if the DUP don't agree. A no confidence vote could be forced, but as some have discussed below no-one bar Labour (and possibly even some of them) want a snap election.
Unless May resigns (as Party leader) before the summer recess, the earliest she could resign is early Sept.
Assuming the leadership contest goes to the members, it'll take at least 6 weeks which means a new leader wouldn't become PM until mid to late October. If they then called a GE immediately, the GE wouldn't be until early December.
A December GE isn't plausible.
So I think no GE this year - unless May resigns as Party leader before Parliament breaks up in July.0 -
Corbyn can sit back and demand cake and eat it. He learned this from vote leave. The government will have to deliver it without the numbersisam said:What is this "Jobs first Brexit"?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFlfn5_3-IM0 -
Also, Brexit negotiations between Farage and Juncker would boil down to a historic drinking competition.isam said:
Not if Farage was Leader of Conservative PartyHYUFD said:
No, Corbyn might even have beaten Farage, it would have been the British equivalent of Le Pen v Melenchonisam said:
Super Nigel Farage!Benpointer said:
I'm sorry, I'm being dense I know, but who?isam said:Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?
If he was Conservative Leader, is there any doubt he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn? Majority of 100 odd0 -
I think that LDs will fight the next election a bit differently. The Brexit policy needs fettling, and I would favour Lamb as leader. He has more gravitas, though Swinson is also good. I wouldn't be upset if Farron continued, but he needs to consult wider and not be such a one man band.rcs1000 said:
They also increased their number of seats by 50%, and came within about four hundred votes of doubling their representation. Another election might well see them capture St Ives, Richmond Park, Fife NE and Cheltenham.dr_spyn said:LD candidates lost 375 deposits, Farron must be wary of a push for another General Election.
While things obviously didn't play out as well for them as they'd hoped at the beginning of the campaign, I suspect senior LibDems feel they've done OK.
I think LDs will benefit from the extinction of UKIP in terms of television coverage next time round.0 -
What a pile of bollocks (the reshuffle). Why bother?
Plus Jezza looking positively prime ministerial this morning.
Raab is a twat.
Other than that, what's up?0 -
In due course Corbyn will have seen off two Tory Primeministers.
Let that sink in.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Blimey, not a tweet I was expecting to see
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/873978901588062210
Has Boris been drinking?TheScreamingEagles said:Blimey, not a tweet I was expecting to see
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/873978901588062210
0 -
He is also profoundly anti-British. He is a cheerleader for foreign leaders who wish the UK harm. Little Lord Haw Haw would drive the Tories over a cliff.foxinsoxuk said:
Loads of doubt. One thing the Tories got wrong was to neglect the domestic agenda, Farage is even worse at that.isam said:
Super Nigel Farage!Benpointer said:
I'm sorry, I'm being dense I know, but who?isam said:Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?
If he was Conservative Leader, is there any doubt he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn? Majority of 100 odd
0 -
No-one predicted the reappearance of tactical voting. Mrs May made it OK for middle class Labour-ites to vote yellow.Pulpstar said:
Zero defenses vs Labour next time round makes for an interesting dynamic.rcs1000 said:
They also increased their number of seats by 50%, and came within about four hundred votes of doubling their representation. Another election might well see them capture St Ives, Richmond Park, Fife NE and Cheltenham.dr_spyn said:LD candidates lost 375 deposits, Farron must be wary of a push for another General Election.
While things obviously didn't play out as well for them as they'd hoped at the beginning of the campaign, I suspect senior LibDems feel they've done OK.0 -
It is a bit silly to discuss hypotheticals in this degree of intricacy! My wider point is that if Farage was Conservative leader, having never been in UKIP, he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn in the debates and galvanised the Tory support in a way May couldn't dream of.HYUFD said:
A Farage led Tory Party would have made zero gains in Scotland and while it may have made a few more gains in Leave areas of England and Wales it would have lost seats like Cheltenham and Lewes the Tories just held from the LDsisam said:
Not if Farage was Leader of Conservative PartyHYUFD said:
No, Corbyn might even have beaten Farage, it would have been the British equivalent of Le Pen v Melenchonisam said:
Super Nigel Farage!Benpointer said:
I'm sorry, I'm being dense I know, but who?isam said:Surely the best thing about the election is the impending return of the UK's most successful politician?
If he was Conservative Leader, is there any doubt he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn? Majority of 100 odd
He got UKIP to 13%! Someone should do a bar chart of UKIP support 2010, 2015 , 2017!!!0
