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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Life comes at you fast these days doesn’t it Mrs May?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Life comes at you fast these days doesn’t it Mrs May?
For all future party leaders, I have a bit of advice for you, be nice to the people you meet on the way up, because you’ll eventually meet them on the way down, when you need them the most.
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Then I expect her to announce in October 2018, once the provisional Brexit deal has been done, that she'll be gone by the summer of 2019.
My feeling is that the Tory party doesn't want any of the following
1) Her to stay
2) A 3 month leadership contest
3) A coronation.
Because of 2 and 3, she'll stay, unless she fecks up in a new way.
For a year, they kept on telling me I was bitter, that the posh boys were crap and Mrs May was awesome.
"We're writing in relation to a bet you placed on our General Election RequestABets market.
Due to a technical error, the "Conservatives to win 300-349 seats, Labour 200-249 & turnout 65.01% - 70.00%" selection was settled incorrectly as a winner, with Labour actually winning 262 seats.
Normally in this situation we would resettle your bet with the correct result, however on this occasion we are truly making betting better and allowing your bet to remain settled as a winner!"
I had a tenner at 14/1.
*I retire wounded*
:-)
Tories are in the shit no doubt, but Labour has made a catastrophic error with their adoption of hard left policies and persons.
330 seats
318 seats
The market is the truth!
Vote of no confidence is 5 weeks, right? That's 2 weeks for a second confidence vote not to pass and then 3 weeks for the campaign. But anything else would be slower?
If the Tories chose to have a second election, might they avoid a winter date? 1974 was Feb and October, but we're already in June. Not long now if we don't want a freezing campaign. On the other hand, MPs may not have that level of control. If the DUP deal collapses it's election right now.
DYOR, but I don't feel that a second election imminently is likely, even 25% likely (for 1/3 being value on it not happening).The Tories haven't gone for one over the weekend, and they are close enough to 325 that I imagine they'll try to form a minority even if the DUP don't agree. A no confidence vote could be forced, but as some have discussed below no-one bar Labour (and possibly even some of them) want a snap election.
There's some really idiocy coming from the DUP and their supporters.
The hubris from Labour didn't take long to develop; 64 seats off a majority of 1 and they're celebrating victory already!
Overall I came out of the night up a couple of hundred. I did a quick reverse ferret on the exit poll on Betfair, and my search for Labour gains made up for other losses.
If Hammond, or Rudd gets paid out as next PM it would be luvverly.
I don't have a feel for next Tory leader, so will cash out for the summer.
There are always people for whom personal vendetta outweighs reason.
The only thing keeping her in office is the understandable reluctance of would be replacement leaders to accept the hospital pass.
I don't even have to go all Lib Dem to make that bar chart look bad.
The tricky question for them is how to avoid being seen to be propping up Tories.
Worryingly I suspect that they're no better than the country deserves.
Macron is an Enarque, and an ex-investment banker globalist free marketeer, who believes the state is too big and wants to liberalise France's sclerotic labour market.
Corbyn has no great academic achievements, despises business, is naturally suspicious of the EU and would increase regulation and taxes.
I'm not sure there is an obvious comparable for Macron. He talks the language of the Left, while proposing the solutions of the free market Right. His programme is as free market as Fillon's, and massively more so than Le Pen, Melanchon or the socialist. He's possibly the most pro-free trade French President in history. He's instictively pro-EU, but - as is so often the case in France - is so, because he sees the EU as a way of advancing France's interests.
Will he succeed?
I don't know. France is badly broken, and reform often fails on the barricades as lorry drivers and farmers blockade roads and ports to force government climb downs. But I'll give you one thing: he'll try.
That seems a very sensible time scale.
Surely no one wants to take over even in a caretaker capacity until Brexit is over. Scratch that I've just remembered Mr Gove!
If he was Conservative Leader, is there any doubt he would have wiped the floor w Corbyn? Majority of 100 odd
While things obviously didn't play out as well for them as they'd hoped at the beginning of the campaign, I suspect senior LibDems feel they've done OK.
She may have no choice. I forsee a spring 2018 election.
The new approach would have "fewer things being ruled out" after the Prime Minister's failure to secure an increased mandate at the General Election.
One senior Cabinet source told Sky News: "What we were proposing genuinely didn't get enough buy-in.
"The British public themselves haven't reached a conclusion on what they want from Brexit.
"We need to recognise the outcome... people want practical pragmatism with fewer things being ruled out - not an ideologically-driven approach."
The election result also raises a question about the democratic legitimacy of the overall approach to Brexit.
"How do you get a legitimate decision? How does it have legitimacy? It's not instantly obvious," said the Cabinet minister.
The fact that the PM asked British voters to strengthen her hand in negotiations but instead they reduced her majority might now mean a clear parliamentary vote is required after any Brexit deal.
http://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-urged-to-ditch-her-brexit-approach-for-pragmatism-10912710
Making 12 July a bank holiday would.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/youre-barred-liverpools-newest-mp-13171030
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFlfn5_3-IM
But as British political, military and economic power has dwindled and British governments become more and more restricted in what they can do perhaps the only thing that Conservative politicians can have power over is the Conservative party. Hence the feuding and bitterness within it.
There are, of course, attempts by Conservative politicians to strut about the world stage posturing as the new Churchill or Thatcher - Cameron's vanity wars and overseas aid profligacy for example or May with Trump - but they're weak and usually disastrous echoes of how things once were.
Recess is on 21 July, which means she still has six weeks to cling on just to make it to the summer break. She can probably do it, but it's not guaranteed. Nothing is anymore.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/873978901588062210
It's never ceases to amaze them when the electorate find that view...odd.To the extent of preferring Jeremy Corbyn in some cases.
Unless May resigns (as Party leader) before the summer recess, the earliest she could resign is early Sept.
Assuming the leadership contest goes to the members, it'll take at least 6 weeks which means a new leader wouldn't become PM until mid to late October. If they then called a GE immediately, the GE wouldn't be until early December.
A December GE isn't plausible.
So I think no GE this year - unless May resigns as Party leader before Parliament breaks up in July.
I think LDs will benefit from the extinction of UKIP in terms of television coverage next time round.
Plus Jezza looking positively prime ministerial this morning.
Raab is a twat.
Other than that, what's up?
Let that sink in.
He got UKIP to 13%! Someone should do a bar chart of UKIP support 2010, 2015 , 2017!!!