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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly people are wondering whether Farage is losing it

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    maaarsh said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Not seen Soubry vs Farage yet but it seems to have massively alienated UKIPers, whilst pleasing Lib-Dem/Labour leaners. Will any Lib-Dems/Labour actually switch their votes to Conservative now, or will more conservatives on the right of the party head off to UKIP ?

    Whatever - it seems it won't win back any kippers. Tim's post below seems to agree with that - though of course the Soubry effect if any has yet to sink in. Probably no change in the polls I reckon over the next week...

    This is precisely the point. There are no more votes for the Conservatives to the left, and no matter how much this speech pleases 70% of the electorate, it won't win any votes and makes the recovery of the right flank even harder.
    maarsh: is that true? The danger about swinging right (i.e. towards UKIP) is that you lose to the LibDems in places like Richmond, and that you lose the financial support of the business community - most of whom are firmly in favour of remaining in the EU.
    Are you sure the "business community" are firmly in favour of remaining in the EU?

    I thought the Business for Britain polling showed a slightly different message to the approved views of the CBI - in the same way at the IoD often differs from the CBI.

    The CBI represents multinationals, not UK small businesses
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    tim said:

    @JohnO

    Do you expect Stewart Jackson to ramp up fear of immigrants sufficiently for UKIP to cost him his seat?
    It would be fitting,

    Now, how much was our bet that Kris Hopkins would lose his seat in 2015? Was it £30 or £50 - I haven't logged with PtP and I've forgotten (though I have a feeling it was £30)?
    Can't remember, it can be however much you want it to be though.

    He's disappeared since being made housing backbencher, probably wisely

    @brickonomics: DCLG net supply of housing data: In England 124,720 net additional dwellings in 2012-13, 8% fall from 2011-12 http://t.co/HngCxwAtzv

    @ggilmorekf: UK Development Land prices up 2.7% in Q3 http://t.co/WFJz9kly87
    tim said:

    JohnO said:

    tim said:

    @JohnO

    Do you expect Stewart Jackson to ramp up fear of immigrants sufficiently for UKIP to cost him his seat?
    It would be fitting,

    Now, how much was our bet that Kris Hopkins would lose his seat in 2015? Was it £30 or £50 - I haven't logged with PtP and I've forgotten (though I have a feeling it was £30)?
    Can't remember, it can be however much you want it to be though.

    He's disappeared since being made housing backbencher, probably wisely

    @brickonomics: DCLG net supply of housing data: In England 124,720 net additional dwellings in 2012-13, 8% fall from 2011-12 http://t.co/HngCxwAtzv

    @ggilmorekf: UK Development Land prices up 2.7% in Q3 http://t.co/WFJz9kly87
    OK, we'll go for £30 and I WILL inform PtP, copied to you.
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    I have doubts about that 'northerness' test as I only got 42% on it.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,358
    Thanks for the advice, all. Sorry, tim, Your Grace - it's Jeanmaire, not Jeanmarie. Any good? (tugs forelock)
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    isamisam Posts: 40,979
    Ha ha brilliant!

    The people who don't have a clue what its like to be working class or an immigrant, but like to sit and judge from afar based on govt stats are now discussing the finer points of vintage champers!

    If only there were a name for people like that!!!

    You really couldn't make it up
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    Dismal trade figures today.

    I've noticed a few articles recently saying that while there may not be a economic rebalancing from services to manufacturing there is an economic rebalancing occuring within the service sector from internal wealth consuming services to export based wealth producing services.

    Well the trade figures suggest otherwise and particularly depressing is the increase in finished manufactured imports.

    Our addiction to imported consumer tat seems unbreakable.

    I hate to think how high the trade deficit will reach if the government is able to create a 'feel good' factor.

    But one thing's all talk of a 'sustainable recovery' is ridiculous - we can only have a 'sustainable recovery' after we've faced up to and dealt with our fundamental failings.
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    O/T but for people who think Wonga are bad

    A man who killed a loan shark to whom he owed money has been jailed for 10 years.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-24868484
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    isamisam Posts: 40,979
    tim said:

    isam said:

    Ha ha brilliant!

    The people who don't have a clue what its like to be working class or an immigrant, but like to sit and judge from afar based on govt stats are now discussing the finer points of vintage champers!

    If only there were a name for people like that!!!

    You really couldn't make it up


    It's not vintage, dear
    Factcheck why while you factcheck whether Farage was lying about the schools
    Haha superb!! Ill cross 'em over and you nod em 'in
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    TGOHF said:

    http://order-order.com/2013/11/08/graph-majority-support-removal-of-spare-room-subsidy/

    "54% say it is fair that people living in social housing who have more bedrooms than they need should receive less housing benefit. Just 27% disagree. The bedroom ‘tax’ is Labour’s favourite means of painting the Tories as callous and out of touch, the only problem is the public supports the policy…"

    It is all in what question is asked . If asked whether a 60 square foot box room is a spare bedroom or whether a room adapted for a kidney dialysis machine is a spare bedroom then the majority of the public do not agree with the government .
    Mark, how many people in the UK have their own dialysis machine in situ?

    This is a serious question - I have done work over the years with the 4 dialysis clinic chains operating on a significant scale in Europe. Given that, AFAIU, most people need 3 hours dialysis 2-3 times a week it would be remarkably inefficient to have an expensive machine lying idle for the rest of the week. Especially given it would be in non-sterile conditions.
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    tim said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Neil said:

    isam said:

    Roger said:

    @Isam

    “As a foreigner I try to teach them in the proper way, sending them to good schools. “Integration here doesn't exist. I agree with Nigel despite being a foreigner. "

    Don't you find something unpleasant about a recent immigrant wanting to exclude even newer immigrants? I'm alright Jack pull up the drawbridge..........

    What the man in question dislikes is the failure of recent immigrants to attempt to integrate and the lack of a cohesive society that results. I see nothing wrong in him feeling that way

    You didnt think he was full of crap? A lot of people are, we shouldnt take his word as gospel just because he's foreign. I mean I'm foreign but I'm definitely full of crap.
    Well you could say that about anyone who says anything really couldn't you?

    Yeah but we should be really suspicious about people who make very general claims without anything to back them up at all, "Lots of people come here and start claiming, I heard some say there's a lot of money in England and I'll take as much as I can." I mean couldnt he have named names? Research shows that the people he is talking about contribute far more than they take so even if he wasnt making these things up his anecdotes dont reflect reality very well
    Exactly. The immigration "debate" seem to be conducted entirely on the basis of anecdote, assertion and xenophobia. I have not heard of any evidence-based academic study which backs up the assertion that recent levels of immigration are in any way undesirable either economically or socially.
    Hence the fury from people like Dan Hannan & Co when their stats get debunked.
    Whatever the accuracy of otherwise of Hannan & Co they're never going to be as inaccurate as the predictions that only 10,000 people from Eastern Europe would move to Britain.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Dismal trade figures today.

    I've noticed a few articles recently saying that while there may not be a economic rebalancing from services to manufacturing there is an economic rebalancing occuring within the service sector from internal wealth consuming services to export based wealth producing services.

    Well the trade figures suggest otherwise and particularly depressing is the increase in finished manufactured imports.

    Our addiction to imported consumer tat seems unbreakable.

    I hate to think how high the trade deficit will reach if the government is able to create a 'feel good' factor.

    But one thing's all talk of a 'sustainable recovery' is ridiculous - we can only have a 'sustainable recovery' after we've faced up to and dealt with our fundamental failings.

    It's simply a reminder that we have a govt. which bar soundbites has done little substantive to rebalance the economy. A recovery in manufacturing takes years and Cameron has no idea of what to do. The sad thing is that Ed is an even bigger fkwit than Dave and would make the figures worse by some distance.

    I disagree with your view that tat is the problem, our biggest issue is mid tech goods made in high cost countries ( EU ) quite why we can't make more of them at home is the UK's problems. I'd start with banks and multinats personally.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Completely O/T my candidate for the least likely and probably most unsuccessful plea for public sympathy of the day: The ballad of legal aid
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEy_26045Vo&sns=tw&utm_source=Newsletters&utm_campaign=cbe8f74edd-SLN_08_11_13&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1eedb22a32-cbe8f74edd-65388281


    I can feel the empathy already.

    Given that my Mum was chairman of the Hampshire North West Bench (sitting in Basingstoke) this is not a fair representation of my home town...

    And you should hear her comments about how useless the legal aid barristers are...*

    * although, to be fair, she was even more critical of the CPS barristers...
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Neil said:

    IF by the time the elections come along our High Streets are not packed with shifty looking Roma from Romania and Bulgaria, Mr Farage will have to find another group to use as scaremongering.

    There are no restrictions on Roma coming here and looking shifty on the high streets if they want to. The main restriction in on working (which many Romanians and Bulgarians are here doing anyway). I suspect UKIP are going to find that their scaremongering was over-done.
    Isn't scaremongering over done almost by definition?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    How do the luvvies square these quotes from an immigrant living in Boston with their worldview about integration?

    "Perhaps the most pertinent comment of the whole night came not from a panellist but a member of the audience.

    The man in question, himself a migrant who has been living in Boston for a number of years, said: "As a foreigner, the lack of integration worries me. I work with people who don't want to speak English, they want to speak their own languages.

    “Kids are suffering, my son who is 11 is now swearing in Russian.

    “As a foreigner I try to teach them in the proper way, sending them to good schools. “Integration here doesn't exist. I agree with Nigel despite being a foreigner.

    “Lots of people come here and start claiming, I heard some say there's a lot of money in England and I'll take as much as I can.

    “The government need to address integration otherwise we're going to lose British way".


    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/441884/Last-night-s-Question-Time-was-my-25th-appearance-and-audiences-still-agree-with-me

    He's commenting on integration, not on immigration, and what he is saying makes some sense. The right conclusion, however, is not to exclude other people but to ensure that there is the creation of a melting pot rather than a fragmentation of society.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    I wish Soubry found another seat and got elected. She is very unlike the modern Tory. I am not sure which way she would vote in Cameron's referendum.

    She'd certainly vote to remain in the EU.
    Good girl ! One of the very few who has the guts to speak out and not muzzled by the mob. I bet 33% of Tories would vote to stay in. After all, it is the Tories who signed most of the treaties. The treaty to join, the single market. The right to freely move within is enshrined in the original Treaty of Rome, so we agrred to the same at the time we joined the EEC.
    33% sounds about right.
    If that is the case, here is a breakdown of a EU referendum vote.

    To stay in:

    C: 35% x 33% = 11.5%
    L: 35% x 75% = 26.25%
    LD: 15% x 90% = 13.5%
    UKIP 7% x 0% = 0%
    Others 8% x 50% = 4%

    I make it 55 - 45 to stay in. Though my gut instinct says after a campaign it will be 67 - 33.



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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    OT Iain Martin's book on the RBS crash is currently 49p on Amazon Kindle.....

    Is that a faster decline than RBS's share price?

    (BTW it's a very good book)
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    UKIP really is the R-word without being the BNP. THey don't walk around high streets showing off their tattoo's and smashing the place up.
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    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    You might think different if it was your job opportunities and your pay rise being affected.

    And perhaps you think this lot moved to Rotherham to work at the Advanced Manufacturing Park:

    " MIGRANT children are living in poverty-ridden and cramped Rotherham houses of up to 20 people, a shock report reveals.

    There is concern about parenting responsibilities and health and sexual exploitation among the growing Slovakian Roma community residing mainly in Eastwood.

    Evidence of human trafficking and fraud is also worrying Rotherham Borough Council, which faces mounting costs and stretched resources.

    Community engagement and cohesion manager Zafar Saleem said in a Cabinet report: “The current issues being experienced are having a significant impact on council resources.

    “Children’s services is having to fund a range of services such as free school meals, support for parents and accommodation costs due to safeguarding and overcrowding issues.”

    Overcrowding presents welfare and fire safety issues but complicated laws have meant just three formal notices issued.

    “The complexity of the law has made it difficult to pursue further cases,” said Mr Saleem. “However all legal options are being explored.

    “Forty-eight people have left eight properties as a result of overcrowding and two non-compliant landlords are being taken to court.”

    Almost 550 school age children have moved in to Rotherham in the past 12 months. Of these, 449 were from the EU, 379 of Roma origin and 26 were seeking asylum. "
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If all the immigrants went home, there wouldn't be 100 British people lining up for the job, instead we simply probably wouldn't have a cleaner, and I'd have a grumpy wife.

    And there was me assuming that, as a very modern family man, you would chip in with the housework ;-)
    I read that as he'd have to stop shagging the cleaner and his wife would have to step in.
    Not everyone has a mind like a sewer, tim
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    Looks like these racist, xenophobic Asian & Black Britons have new soulmates in the Eastern European immigrants who are complaining about lack of integration

    Its only middle class white British luvvies who dont see it!


    "According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country"

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right

    Intriguing.

    17% of black Britons think immigration has been a bad thing for the country. 21% of them want all immigration to be stopped permanently.

    Do that 4% just hate Britain or something?
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    surbiton said:

    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    UKIP really is the R-word without being the BNP. THey don't walk around high streets showing off their tattoo's and smashing the place up.
    R-word Surbiton? Care to enlighten us?
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Hardly the first time Farage has performed very poorly. At least he didn't take off his microphone and flounce off this time.

    As for whether it heralds a change in the kippers fortunes, well it's easy enough to check what they are first.


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    Pretty clear movement down since Osbrowne and Crosby's disasterous May local elections.
    But then it flattens out and stops moving down.

    Or as Mike put it last month.
    Even out of the spotlight their polling remains resilient

    Over the past month UKIP has been out of the news for all but about two days yet as the chart above shows this has hardly impacted on its YouGov poll numbers.

    All but one of the other online pollsters have them doing even better even though only one of them, Survation, includes the party in its main prompt. To signify UKIP with YouGov, for instance, you have to first tick a box stating that you support “some other party”.

    http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/10/10/im-starting-to-think-that-ukip-could-surprise-us-at-ge2015/
    He's still right as far as the polling average is concerned. UKIP currently 12.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/uk-polling-report-average-2


    We are roughly halfway between their May local elections high and the EU elections to come. The political narrative has been if anything even more inimical to the kippers than last month as economics have dominated which is hardly Farage's strength. Yet there the kippers are still around 12% beating the lib dems.

    Point being they may or may not win the EU elections (though I'd hardly put much faith in one question time being the deciding factor in that) UKIP will almost certainly slump in the polls after the EU elections just like they have after May's local elections, but they are still nowhere near the 3% they polled for 2010 and show no sign of crashing to those kind of levels yet.

    Osbrowne and Crosby had better dream up some new master strategies to get rid of the kipper vote because it's still way, way above where they need it to be.

    I would suggest todays hilarity over yet another EU vote in the commons might also not be the wisest way to calm down the tory eurosceptic headbangers since they are still there watching and waiting.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    You might think different if it was your job opportunities and your pay rise being affected.

    And perhaps you think this lot moved to Rotherham to work at the Advanced Manufacturing Park:

    " MIGRANT children are living in poverty-ridden and cramped Rotherham houses of up to 20 people, a shock report reveals.

    There is concern about parenting responsibilities and health and sexual exploitation among the growing Slovakian Roma community residing mainly in Eastwood.

    Evidence of human trafficking and fraud is also worrying Rotherham Borough Council, which faces mounting costs and stretched resources.

    Community engagement and cohesion manager Zafar Saleem said in a Cabinet report: “The current issues being experienced are having a significant impact on council resources.

    “Children’s services is having to fund a range of services such as free school meals, support for parents and accommodation costs due to safeguarding and overcrowding issues.”

    Overcrowding presents welfare and fire safety issues but complicated laws have meant just three formal notices issued.

    “The complexity of the law has made it difficult to pursue further cases,” said Mr Saleem. “However all legal options are being explored.

    “Forty-eight people have left eight properties as a result of overcrowding and two non-compliant landlords are being taken to court.”

    Almost 550 school age children have moved in to Rotherham in the past 12 months. Of these, 449 were from the EU, 379 of Roma origin and 26 were seeking asylum. "
    Job opportunities is the issue. If the Kyle watchers took up the job opportunities the immigrants couldn't. Lack of education or will allows immigrants to take up vacancies. The come over here taking our jobs crowd always seem to overlook the lack of local applicants for the jobs being taken.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I thought AS's intervention on this was pretty good too!

    I won't get into the well-worn subject of my personal qualities or absence thereof, but instead have a question for tim or anyone else who knows about booze. I've turned up a weighty 1.5 liter bottle of Jean-Marie Epernay Champagne Brut. which must have been a leaving present in Switzerland 16 years ago. It looks quite impressive, but I know absolutely nothing about champagne. Should I assume it's gone flat and pour it down the loo? Or is it a splendid thing which I ought to put up at a raffle as a super prize?

    Epernay is where the best champagne is made, but I don't know that particular house. I rather suspect that it is a cheapish brew that is trying to grab some of the Epernay brand value. Stick it in a raffle and hope that no one realises it was you...

    (If you can find it - not easy unless you go to Epernay - I'd recommend Giesler et Cie [he was one of the original founders of Mumm's but split off to form his own house]. Ruinart is also great, if somewhat different tasting. Salon is also nice, and a good conversation topic, but again not that easy to find.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Red on purple arguments are hilarious

    "You hate brown people"

    " No you love brown people more"

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,060
    Charles said:

    TGOHF said:

    http://order-order.com/2013/11/08/graph-majority-support-removal-of-spare-room-subsidy/

    "54% say it is fair that people living in social housing who have more bedrooms than they need should receive less housing benefit. Just 27% disagree. The bedroom ‘tax’ is Labour’s favourite means of painting the Tories as callous and out of touch, the only problem is the public supports the policy…"

    It is all in what question is asked . If asked whether a 60 square foot box room is a spare bedroom or whether a room adapted for a kidney dialysis machine is a spare bedroom then the majority of the public do not agree with the government .
    Mark, how many people in the UK have their own dialysis machine in situ?

    This is a serious question - I have done work over the years with the 4 dialysis clinic chains operating on a significant scale in Europe. Given that, AFAIU, most people need 3 hours dialysis 2-3 times a week it would be remarkably inefficient to have an expensive machine lying idle for the rest of the week. Especially given it would be in non-sterile conditions.
    As an aside, a friend of mine's mother had a dialysis machine permanently in her house (to link it with another post, it was a stone's throw away from Rotherham). So it does happen.

    It was quite a sad case. She was fairly ill after her first daughter was born. She was told she would have an appointment for some tests, but she was never called (which I think is disputed by the hospital). Being a new mother, other things took priority. She had another daughter the next year, which was a difficult pregnancy, and afterwards she always felt ill, and gained weight. She blamed it on motherhood.

    She became very ill twenty years later, and it turns out her kidneys had been operating at a very low function for some time. Her medical notes made it clear this had been recognised after her first daughter's birthday, but she had never been called back in.

    She died a few years ago, well before her time. :-(

    (This is the story as told me by both her and the daughter. I have no idea if medically that is accurate. For instance, can you have kidney problems for two decades without it being detected?)
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,971
    edited November 2013
    tim said:

    @AnotherRichard

    The Eastern European migration post 2004 has been a massive success on every level

    No it clearly has not.
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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Looks like these racist, xenophobic Asian & Black Britons have new soulmates in the Eastern European immigrants who are complaining about lack of integration

    Its only middle class white British luvvies who dont see it!


    "According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country"

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right

    Intriguing.

    17% of black Britons think immigration has been a bad thing for the country. 21% of them want all immigration to be stopped permanently.

    Do that 4% just hate Britain or something?
    Past and future tense perhaps?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    corporeal said:

    Charles said:

    isam said:

    Looks like these racist, xenophobic Asian & Black Britons have new soulmates in the Eastern European immigrants who are complaining about lack of integration

    Its only middle class white British luvvies who dont see it!


    "According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country"

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right

    Intriguing.

    17% of black Britons think immigration has been a bad thing for the country. 21% of them want all immigration to be stopped permanently.

    Do that 4% just hate Britain or something?
    Past and future tense perhaps?
    I suspect that you are dealing with very small numbers, so not really meaningful, but it did jump out rather
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    surbiton said:

    I wish Soubry found another seat and got elected. She is very unlike the modern Tory. I am not sure which way she would vote in Cameron's referendum.

    She'd certainly vote to remain in the EU.
    Good girl ! One of the very few who has the guts to speak out and not muzzled by the mob. I bet 33% of Tories would vote to stay in. After all, it is the Tories who signed most of the treaties. The treaty to join, the single market. The right to freely move within is enshrined in the original Treaty of Rome, so we agrred to the same at the time we joined the EEC.
    33% sounds about right.
    If that is the case, here is a breakdown of a EU referendum vote.

    To stay in:

    C: 35% x 33% = 11.5%
    L: 35% x 75% = 26.25%
    LD: 15% x 90% = 13.5%
    UKIP 7% x 0% = 0%
    Others 8% x 50% = 4%

    I make it 55 - 45 to stay in. Though my gut instinct says after a campaign it will be 67 - 33.



    Which would be almost exactly the same result as in 1975!
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Charles said:

    Mark, how many people in the UK have their own dialysis machine in situ?

    This is a serious question - I have done work over the years with the 4 dialysis clinic chains operating on a significant scale in Europe. Given that, AFAIU, most people need 3 hours dialysis 2-3 times a week it would be remarkably inefficient to have an expensive machine lying idle for the rest of the week. Especially given it would be in non-sterile conditions.
    As an aside, a friend of mine's mother had a dialysis machine permanently in her house (to link it with another post, it was a stone's throw away from Rotherham). So it does happen.

    It was quite a sad case. She was fairly ill after her first daughter was born. She was told she would have an appointment for some tests, but she was never called (which I think is disputed by the hospital). Being a new mother, other things took priority. She had another daughter the next year, which was a difficult pregnancy, and afterwards she always felt ill, and gained weight. She blamed it on motherhood.

    She became very ill twenty years later, and it turns out her kidneys had been operating at a very low function for some time. Her medical notes made it clear this had been recognised after her first daughter's birthday, but she had never been called back in.

    She died a few years ago, well before her time. :-(

    (This is the story as told me by both her and the daughter. I have no idea if medically that is accurate. For instance, can you have kidney problems for two decades without it being detected?)
    It can be possible to have any number of serious medical conditions and for them not to be recognised mostly by the person who has them ignoring them or writing them off as insignificant . It has even been known for some women to be pregnant for almost 9 months and not realise that that was the cause of her various aches and pains .

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Guardian Editor hauled up before select committee next week - popcorn. ...
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    isamisam Posts: 40,979
    Regarding R-Words, why do lefties always try and sneak the R-word into debates about immigration, even when the immigrants are the same "R" as the majority of the native population? ( or should I say the same "R" as the only people that are thought of as "R"-ists)

    Apologies for mixing up my "R"s

    "R"s / elbow joke

    talking out of "R"s

    cut & paste smart "R"ses

    Jack Ws "R2s

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    TGOHF said:

    Guardian Editor hauled up before select committee next week - popcorn. ...

    Should be interesting, certainly, although it does make me wonder, as many have done I suppose, why people are always 'hauled' before committees. People rarely seem happy to come apparently. It's like how people don't lose in Tennis Grand Slams, they only ever 'crash out'.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    surbiton said:

    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    UKIP really is the R-word without being the BNP. THey don't walk around high streets showing off their tattoo's and smashing the place up.
    I am getting on a bit but, unlike saddened (have a good weep) or Surbiton, I can see the way the this country is being milked as a teat for the whole of the EU. Indeed, Cammo and his so called elitist ilk would like us to be the teat for the whole world. As long as they and others like them are bathed in their fellows esteem, they don't care a fig for the rest of the population of these isle.
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    tim said:

    @AnotherRichard

    The Eastern European migration post 2004 has been a massive success on every level, I can find you articles about British criminals in. Spain, but it wouldn't lead me to argue that Brits should be prevented from moving to. Spain

    Hence Britain's superlative economic performance since 2004 and the massive increase in living standards, productivity and economic mobility which has happened.

    In particular you might like to consider what the effect has been on pay rises - you know that subject you keep banging on about.

    And perhaps you'd like to go to Rotherham and explain to the locals how Eastern European migration has been 'a massive success on every level' in their lives.

    But of course getting you to leave your nice, safe middle class suburb is too much to ask.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,954
    MikeK said:

    surbiton said:

    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    UKIP really is the R-word without being the BNP. THey don't walk around high streets showing off their tattoo's and smashing the place up.
    As long as they and others like them are bathed in their fellows esteem, they don't care a fig for the rest of the population of these isle.
    I think it more likely they have a different view on how urgent the threat from being the teat for the EU/world is or may be, and how well Britain could cope even if there are negative impacts in pursuit of what they see as moral decisions.
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    saddened said:

    Job opportunities is the issue. If the Kyle watchers took up the job opportunities the immigrants couldn't. Lack of education or will allows immigrants to take up vacancies. The come over here taking our jobs crowd always seem to overlook the lack of local applicants for the jobs being taken.

    While you 'pay them less' crowd don't give a toss about the damage to social and economic mobility, the lowering of business investment and productivity and the reduction of opportunities to British people on the margins of the job market.

    And please explain what job vaccancies the Roma immigrants to Rotherham are filling.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    tim said:

    Good to see Farage get a slap, tragic golf club bigot that he is,hopefully Cameron will grow a pair now and stop pandering.


    The problem for the Tories is that they have too many people prepared to scapegoat immigrants in their ranks.
    Their chief strategist Lynton Crosby for one.

    Remind me which Tory it was that wanted to "get the white vote angry"

    Oh.
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    TGOHF said:

    Guardian Editor hauled up before select committee next week - popcorn. ...

    Superb timing!

    LOL

    :)
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    saddened said:

    Job opportunities is the issue. If the Kyle watchers took up the job opportunities the immigrants couldn't. Lack of education or will allows immigrants to take up vacancies. The come over here taking our jobs crowd always seem to overlook the lack of local applicants for the jobs being taken.

    While you 'pay them less' crowd don't give a toss about the damage to social and economic mobility, the lowering of business investment and productivity and the reduction of opportunities to British people on the margins of the job market.

    And please explain what job vaccancies the Roma immigrants to Rotherham are filling.
    I wouldn't bother with ivory tower lot,they don't live in the real world.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    saddened said:

    Job opportunities is the issue. If the Kyle watchers took up the job opportunities the immigrants couldn't. Lack of education or will allows immigrants to take up vacancies. The come over here taking our jobs crowd always seem to overlook the lack of local applicants for the jobs being taken.

    While you 'pay them less' crowd don't give a toss about the damage to social and economic mobility, the lowering of business investment and productivity and the reduction of opportunities to British people on the margins of the job market.

    And please explain what job vaccancies the Roma immigrants to Rotherham are filling.
    Could you cite some evidence that immigrants damage social and economic mobility?
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    tim said:

    @AnotherRichard

    I guess you could blame Spains ills on Brit immigrants too if you wanted.

    They can blame their ills on whoever they want.

    From what I've read they're similarly aggrieved at the influx of low skilled immigrants.

    But as you know so much about the subject perhaps you can tell us how much the British community in Spain has increased during the last decade.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    tim said:

    Floater said:

    tim said:

    Good to see Farage get a slap, tragic golf club bigot that he is,hopefully Cameron will grow a pair now and stop pandering.


    The problem for the Tories is that they have too many people prepared to scapegoat immigrants in their ranks.
    Their chief strategist Lynton Crosby for one.

    Remind me which Tory it was that wanted to "get the white vote angry"

    Oh.
    Now care to answer the point about Lynton Crosbys strategy, you were going to prove you aren't vacant at some point, here's your chance.
    After all you voted UKIP in May after Crosby got you all riled up about immigration, not that it took much.
    I can see you already rubbing you hands when the EU restrictions on Romania and Bulgaria are lifted next year.

    That could mean immigration up and that all what counts in your little labour bunker.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Hey you lot - new thread - get over there, I'm talking to myself again !!
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    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    UKIP draws it's support from realists.

    Totally agree with the last sentence, but if the government force people to work for their benefits they go off whining to the ECHR or the like, they wanted to work in a museum not a field/shop etc

    This country cannot stand more unchecked immigration, we do not have the infrastructure.

    It's fine the likes of Billy Bragg claiming how great diversity is in Barking from his enclave in Burton Bradstock, or Tim the wine merchant/ farmer telling us all how lucky we are to live in such a diverse country when he lives in one of the whitest areas of the UK.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    UKIP draws it's support from realists.

    Totally agree with the last sentence, but if the government force people to work for their benefits they go off whining to the ECHR or the like, they wanted to work in a museum not a field/shop etc

    This country cannot stand more unchecked immigration, we do not have the infrastructure.

    It's fine the likes of Billy Bragg claiming how great diversity is in Barking from his enclave in Burton Bradstock, or Tim the wine merchant/ farmer telling us all how lucky we are to live in such a diverse country when he lives in one of the whitest areas of the UK.
    Top post.

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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    UKIP draws it's support from realists.

    Totally agree with the last sentence, but if the government force people to work for their benefits they go off whining to the ECHR or the like, they wanted to work in a museum not a field/shop etc

    This country cannot stand more unchecked immigration, we do not have the infrastructure.

    It's fine the likes of Billy Bragg claiming how great diversity is in Barking from his enclave in Burton Bradstock, or Tim the wine merchant/ farmer telling us all how lucky we are to live in such a diverse country when he lives in one of the whitest areas of the UK.
    Could you cite some evidence for your assertion that the UK's infrastructure can't cope with more immigration?
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    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    UKIP draws it's support from realists.

    Totally agree with the last sentence, but if the government force people to work for their benefits they go off whining to the ECHR or the like, they wanted to work in a museum not a field/shop etc

    This country cannot stand more unchecked immigration, we do not have the infrastructure.

    It's fine the likes of Billy Bragg claiming how great diversity is in Barking from his enclave in Burton Bradstock, or Tim the wine merchant/ farmer telling us all how lucky we are to live in such a diverse country when he lives in one of the whitest areas of the UK.
    Could you cite some evidence for your assertion that the UK's infrastructure can't cope with more immigration?
    From the Guardian no less:

    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/sep/03/councils-shortage-primary-school-places
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Roger said:

    COMPLETELY OT. For non film buffs but for the type of person who could talk endlessly about a high speed train......in other words political posters. Go and watch 'Gravity'. One of the most arresting first 30 minutes of a film I've seen and possibly a step advance in film making technique.

    Saw it last night and loved it.

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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    UKIP draws it's support from realists.

    Totally agree with the last sentence, but if the government force people to work for their benefits they go off whining to the ECHR or the like, they wanted to work in a museum not a field/shop etc

    This country cannot stand more unchecked immigration, we do not have the infrastructure.

    It's fine the likes of Billy Bragg claiming how great diversity is in Barking from his enclave in Burton Bradstock, or Tim the wine merchant/ farmer telling us all how lucky we are to live in such a diverse country when he lives in one of the whitest areas of the UK.
    Could you cite some evidence for your assertion that the UK's infrastructure can't cope with more immigration?
    From the Guardian no less:

    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/sep/03/councils-shortage-primary-school-places
    From my city -

    http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/local/localbrad/9809113.Roads_in_Bradford_and_Leeds__most_congested_in_England_/

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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    SeanT said:

    Roger said:

    COMPLETELY OT. For non film buffs but for the type of person who could talk endlessly about a high speed train......in other words political posters. Go and watch 'Gravity'. One of the most arresting first 30 minutes of a film I've seen and possibly a step advance in film making technique.

    I trust your judgement on movies (if little else!). Is Gravity as good as they are saying? Some people are claiming its one of the greatest movies ever made. WTF?!

    Obviously have to defer to Roger as he knows his films.

    But for a non technical person like it me it just gripped you and didn't let go.
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578

    saddened said:

    UKIP draws it support from the MikeK' s of the world, their getting on a bit and fear change. Farage in his golf club bore way appeals to them by stoking their fears. It's sad. Instead of being angry a hard working immigrants taking up vacancies in the jobs market he should be angry at the locals who either can't or won't do those jobs. If there where no vacancies there would be no immigrants coming to fill them.

    UKIP draws it's support from realists.

    Totally agree with the last sentence, but if the government force people to work for their benefits they go off whining to the ECHR or the like, they wanted to work in a museum not a field/shop etc

    This country cannot stand more unchecked immigration, we do not have the infrastructure.

    It's fine the likes of Billy Bragg claiming how great diversity is in Barking from his enclave in Burton Bradstock, or Tim the wine merchant/ farmer telling us all how lucky we are to live in such a diverse country when he lives in one of the whitest areas of the UK.
    Could you cite some evidence for your assertion that the UK's infrastructure can't cope with more immigration?
    From the Guardian no less:

    http://www.theguardian.com/education/2013/sep/03/councils-shortage-primary-school-places
    But surely an increase in the birth rate is a good thing? Or would you prefer the UK to become an ageing society like Japan or Italy?

This discussion has been closed.