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Madness or triumph awaits YouGov.
I just did a quick check and with a bit of a search I found that
IPSOS estimated that 43% of 18-24 actually voted in 2015
if you compare that to some of the recent surveys
Kantar (25th to 30th giving 43con to 33lab) had for the same group 23% would definately vote and 13% would probably vote
ICM (26th to 29th giving 45con to 33lab) had for the same group 44% would definately vote (10/10)
YouGov (30th/31st giving 42con to 39lab) had for the same group 62% certain to vote (10/10)
Survation (26th/27th giving 43con to 37lab) had for the same group 81.2% certain to vote (10/10)
are yougov and others really saying that the 18-24s are going to vote in significantly higher numbers than they have before when ICM and others are not?
One will be right-ish and the disciples will throw that at anyone who tells the truth about them
"For me what’s been significant is that Theresa May now making visits not just to targets which they hope to gain to but seats they already hold. That reflects a certain loss of confidence."
She was visiting Tory held west country seats in the first week of the campaign. The Tories were at 50% in the polls IIRC. I think Cameron went with her and you (Or one of the other comment writers) did an article about how the resurgent Lib Dems were going to take back the south west.....
personally I expect the Tories to get between 43 and 45% and labour to get between 31 and 34%
That is not that big a jump from 2015, and in fact it's only back to levels of youth turnout, relative to elderly turnout, that were last seen in 2010. Hardly outlandish.
From one of YouGov's analysts:
Take our most recent poll. After we had weighted our sample, taken account of how likely people say they are to vote, and weighted down the answers of those people who didn’t vote last time, we were left with a sample that implies turnout of 51% among people under 25 and 75% among people aged 65+; a turnout gap of 24 points between young and old.
Looking at estimates from past elections from the House of Commons library, in 2015 the turnout gap between young and old was 35 points, in 2010 it was 23 points, in 2005 it was 36 points. In other words, we’re showing a smaller gap than in 2015, but similar to 2010 and not one that we think is totally unrealistic if Jeremy Corbyn has enthused younger people.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/
It's certainly unusual for a campaign to matter much but it does seem to have happened, since the local elections largely bore out what the polls were showing at the time, and the polls are now very different.
I was out on a WWC estate this afternoon, and got told off three times by Labour voters for not coming round sooner - "We've got to win this one", "I can't stand that Theresa May" and, interestingly for what feels a safe Labour seat, "I'm fed up with Tory phone calls". So even if Mrs May is shifting her focus, the phone canvassers are still trying in the distant prospects (though if she told them to get lost the first time it's odd that they called back).
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/imdk9bjaff/TimesResults_170531_VI_Trackers_W.pdf
if you go back to the beginning of the campaign they were getting 44% for 10/10 and 4% for 9/10
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/04xxn42p3e/TimesResults_170419_VI_Trackers_GE_W.pdf
this is a major change. Yes the JC campaign has energised the 18-24 but the question I'm asking is why have ICM not seen the same change in engagement from the same group of people?
SNP 1.8
Lab 2.5
Con 6.5
www.betfair.com/sport/politics
As has been noted before at the 2015 GE David Cameron campaigning in Yeovil, 200 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house was confirmation for the Lib Dems that Cameron and Crosby didn't have a clue about targeting and the Tories were mad to focus on these seats.
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
are Yougov rushing (they mostly take 2 days) and having a more difficult task of correcting data after the fact rather than ICM (who normally take 3 days) who may not need to compensate for the data as much after the fact?
Undeserved Con Landslide A Week Away ....
They both promised to stop tuition fees.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/ipsos-mori-may-issues-index-sharp-rises-concern-about-nhs-and-education
Was calling for a re run. They only had to win once and have suddenly decided that the believe in democracy
http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/defence-secretary-says-plymouth-will-play-major-part-in-the-future-of-the-royal-navy/story-30366674-detail/story.html
"In 8 hours you've already raised £244,000."
People are allowed to campaign to take us back in, who said they couldn't?
Raising youth turnout to 51% isn't much but YouGov has Con +4.
Going from 43% to 51% can't move the overall headline lead by 4 points when young people are only a small proportion of total electorate anyway.
This implies there are other changes going on - ie is YouGov boosting 25 to 44 turnout as well above the 2015 level? And any other changes?
Whats mind-blowing is the level of hubris in that Tory manifesto that literally punches their own supporters in the stomach and says "there is no alternative". And to those people who aren't hardened supporters but have swayed Tory as recently as 2015 its "we literally take you for granted because you have no choice".
So regardless of the collected wisdom of views on Jezbollah, when he is left as the least worst option by the PM herself thats when "bollocks to TINA!" comes into play and people vote Brexit/Trump/Corbyn. Up here on Teesside the Tory-leaning paper is reporting her visit to Guisborough with a sarcastic portrait of being refused proper access to her and "on a knife-edge" polls for MSEC and my own Stockton South.
So bring it on. She's Frit. She's being routed. And next week she'll be gone.
A referendum to stop the kippers stealing their votes.
It may not be popular with the chatterati, but their considered view is considerably less important than that of the bloke down the pub."
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=1
I expect the under 25s to disappoint on the downside yet again. Knock a point off Labour, but perhaps not much more. But their not being there will push up the proportion of voters going Tory as a result. Stick another point on the blues.
TMICIPM with a big increase in majority in their eyes.
YG will surely not remain poised to be the only pollster predicting hung Parliament for long.
I think the result will be closer to ICM than YG at current levels.
Unfortunately.
Also, weren't the polls much closer than 'mid single digit leads' for Con, or am I remembering wrong?
In the case of YouGov we have mostly concentrated on improving our sample – recruiting more people who are less interested in politics and weighting by political interest and education. However, we no longer take people’s self-reported likelihood to vote as being entirely reliable. As past voting behaviour is a useful guide to whether people will vote this time, we weight down people who didn’t vote in 2015.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/
ROFL!
Incidentally, if anyone is interested in these things, I received a bundle of GE leaflets today, delivered by the postman. (LD, Lab, Con, Green). Prior to that I'd only had leaflets delivered prior to the locals - 2 Con GE leaflets. (Newton Abbot constituency.)
Good evening, everyone.
Even then, the polls are only answered by people that volunteer to be in polling panels, which is a particular kind of nerd. I have nothing against pollsters, but it just seems to me, as I say in my article, that they are shit
My other location where I live is Rory territory and probably safe.
You know, the opposite of EdStone or meeting Russell what's his face.