£ down nearly a cent on this poll. Markets spooked.
Can you imagine a Corbyn lead Brexit ?
Out the single market, cash paid over to Brussels and zero controls on immigration
Labour want to keep the "benefits" of the single market even if they recognise that freedom of movement will end (good luck with that); they want to have some controls on immigration, tighter controls even.
Tories can say Labour will open the gates to the Mongol hordes who will bivouac in their thousands in suburban streets. That smacks of desperation!
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Wouldn't he run into difficulties with his nationalisation programme?
If Corbyn wins, he'll be deposed.
A credible challenger from the centre-left in the PLP did not come forward before because it looked like the next election was lost, and why carry the can?
But, if the prize is PM, a credible challenger will emerge within months
But, I don't think Corbyn will win.
If Corbyn won, his successor would be chosen by Corbyn.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
I think that the Shy Tory factor may have increased significantly again. I am not a Tory and will vote Libdem, but I cannot stand Corbyn, and my wife was going on about how if you don't like Corbyn then you must be a Tory. She is very reasonable. The stuff I have seen on social media, probably propagated by the Corbynistas, is amazing. I have seen all the following - if you are a Tory you must be evil, not care about anyone else at all, hate the unemployed, want all the disabled to die, want the total destruction of the NHS in the next five years, as well as the more simple c**t, s**t or wa**er. Amid this deluge of abuse I feel that people are very reluctant about sharing any anti Corbyn opinions on social media. After someone went on about how the Corbyn IRA Story was a right wing media construction I shared the following to great abuse. http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/
I am very happy to be combative about my politics on here, but would NEVER raise it on Facebook. I never link to anything political. It's just not worth it. The Left are just SO certain that they hold the moral high-ground. It seems to be their sop for not having actual power - they can dominate the ether with their views.
Wankers.
I am sure that you are not the only one. I am merely pointing out that there is a counternarative to the Tory IRA ad, and the polls show which is having an effect.
The counternarrative is shared by friends (and hence largely fellow travellers) where as the Tory one is targetted and paid for, and therefore ends up in the feeds of whoever their target group is regardless of their friends list.
"I have doubts about these findings from YouGov because it doesn’t match up with the supplementaries/leader ratings."
It matches with at least one supplementary: ComRes found that Labour was preferred by 42% to 37% for having the "best policies for people like me and my family".
Are there any stats on whether that's a better predictor than the "best leader" question?
I'm sure if you asked people, they would say the first was more important - at least if you didn't remind them that governments sometimes don't implement their policies.
Which ones are cutting through? the ones that concentrate on austerity policies, or the ones that concentrate on history?
I haven't watched these videos (I'm not on Facebook), but doesn't the Tory "Corbyn-IRA" thing make the Tories look nasty in some markets?
Some small but possibly quite swingy demographics - middle-class post-Blairite types, say - will realise that as Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn receives frequent security briefings, including about terrorist threats. As far as we know, no objections have been raised by the government or any of its departments. So the Tories are only saying this for party political reasons. They look like creeps, bullies, and liars. "Can't they fight this on the policies?" many will ask.
As they fall in the polls, what will happen is that they and the billionaire press will get even nastier!
Calling an election when you don't have to, having no attractive policies, and saying "please make us stronger" and "we stand for strength and stability" was ASKING FOR TROUBLE.
Don't underestimate Seumas. Perhaps the Old Wykehamists will kick the Old Etonians' arses!
Wykehamists are terrible at this sort of thing; they make the mistake of thinking everyone is as clever as they are.
BBC looks at dark advertising, saying heavily targeted at lefties in marginals. If so that makes the 4.6m views so far look a lot bigger than it did (i.e. even if the viewers were the population at large it would be a big number, if targeted like that it must be equivalent to a non-targeted video getting to 30m. Usual caution applies that someone who dismissed it after 3 seconds would count as a view).
So, depending on who you want to win it's either icm must be wrong cos yougov or yougov must be wrong cos icm? I'm officially sitting out the betting aside from a few quid on Scottish constituencies for some fun and interest on the night. I've got a couple of quid on UKIP in Thanet South in case expenses plays games there.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Wouldn't he run into difficulties with his nationalisation programme?
If Corbyn wins, he'll be deposed.
A credible challenger from the centre-left in the PLP did not come forward before because it looked like the next election was lost, and why carry the can?
But, if the prize is PM, a credible challenger will emerge within months
But, I don't think Corbyn will win.
If Corbyn won, his successor would be chosen by Corbyn.
These things have a momentum of their own.
If most of the PLP decide not support Corbyn as PM, but to support XX, and XX can command a majority in them House, then XX is PM.
But, surely anyone with a training in statistics can see that this methodology is poor.
If you are predicting a referendum result (i.e., one huge nationwide constituency) this method may make some sense. The sample size is ~ 7000.
To take the sample, split it up into constituencies so that the sample size is ~ 100, and to try and predict each individual constituency means that the sampling error per constituency is very large.
I would expect a noisy and unstable result.
"It worked for EUref" is certainly a hostage to fortune. As is "based on complex model", as if complexity on its own guaranteed anything.
My brain dead 2015 Scotland model which simply apportioned vote to the SNP based on IndyRef voting confidently forecasted that the SNP would take 56 seats.
Admittedly it was wrong about which exact seats they would be but it got the number right!
Another very clever ad from Labour. Which agency are they using? Clearly they have money to spend on very simple, cleverly conceived ads (the triple whammy one was also great – a clever send up of the classic Tory double whammy poster).
Also where is the Tory poster campaign or at least the daily effort to shape the narrative to their area of campaigning? Do the Tories even have a campaign grid? To have called a snap election and then have no plan for how to running it is idiotic.
Yesterday thet tories were 12% ahead with ICM and ahead with all other posters including yougov, yet people are discussing on here the possibility of Corbyn winning? Has this site gone mad?
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
The Tories have run a campaign that has reminded a lot of voters why they do not like the Tories. When you have a two-party system - as England and much of Wales now have again - if you don't like one party your alternative is the other one.
It is precisely Corbyn's ability to repel older voters, as well as those in certain regions such as the Midlands, that will ensure the Tories win handily next week.
Yes I would agree with that my father a conservative was upset with the Falklands regarding Corbyn with paxman .However the Ireland stuff he never mentions.My two daughters and their partners in their late twenties big Corbyn fans .The 1980s to them are history.
Yes, that's the trouble. To those in their 20s you may as well talk about the 1930s compared to the 1980s.
But those over 35 will remember very well. The IRA campaign went on until 1996.
Very true no wonder I am an old fashioned third way relic.Father Thatcherite Mother CND in 80s.Daughters Corbyn Labour Brother banker in city other brother Union man .Only election we all voted same way was 97 Blair.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
So basically EU membership in all but name. Yes that's possible.
Yes, staying in the Single Market makes rejoining so much simpler...
In a way, but the fallout from giving up any pretense of controlling immigration could make things very nasty
"The model was developed primarily by Professor Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics in conjunction with YouGov's Data Science team, headed by Doug Rivers of Stanford University. The data are streamed directly from YouGov's survey system to its Crunch analytic database. From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. Stan was developed at Columbia University by Andrew Gelman and his colleagues, with support from YouGov and other organisations. YouGov will be updating the model estimates on a daily basis." https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/
Yesterday thet tories were 12% ahead with ICM and ahead with all other posters including yougov, yet people are discussing on here the possibility of Corbyn winning? Has this site gone mad?
Good afternoon from the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka where healthcare is free and universal and education is free from primary level to university.
How are my PB Tory friends today? For what it's worth I don't believe the YouGov poll - it's drivel and they will have egg on their face come June 9th.
Just a shame Sri Lanka had to commit genocide to get to its current state.
How are my PB Tory friends today? For what it's worth I don't believe the YouGov poll - it's drivel and they will have egg on their face come June 9th.
Ofcourse it's drivel, but its giving lefties a welcome breath of fresh air in their sails, and the PB Tories are as bipolar as ever, alternating between gloating one day, and bedwetting the next... all egged on by SeanT getting his usual semi from even the possibility of a crisis, especially if it means a potential drop in London property prices
F1: Canada's a bit later than I seem to remember (race will finish about 9pm, but even the 2011 four hour epic finished at 10pm).
Also, Perez is reportedly in talks with Renault to replace Palmer, which would make the 2018 Renault line-up the same as the 2016 Force India pairing. Hulkenberg and Perez are undoubtedly a great pair for a midfield team (or perhaps even higher).
If it happens, Ocon's done very well in his first full season (to date), but I'm not sure who'd be next in line. Sainz is very good and Toro Rosso have a habit of throwing out drivers after a few years, and there seems to be no room at the Red Bull inn.
On the other hand, potential departures for Bottas and Raikkonen mean the better midfield drivers will also have an eye on that.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Wouldn't he run into difficulties with his nationalisation programme?
As many of our European peers have nationalised rail and energy industries I have always worked on the basis that this is something of a canard.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
The Tories have run a campaign that has reminded a lot of voters why they do not like the Tories. When you have a two-party system - as England and much of Wales now have again - if you don't like one party your alternative is the other one.
It is precisely Corbyn's ability to repel older voters, as well as those in certain regions such as the Midlands, that will ensure the Tories win handily next week.
Yes I would agree with that my father a conservative was upset with the Falklands regarding Corbyn with paxman .However the Ireland stuff he never mentions.My two daughters and their partners in their late twenties big Corbyn fans .The 1980s to them are history.
Yes, that's the trouble. To those in their 20s you may as well talk about the 1930s compared to the 1980s.
But those over 35 will remember very well. The IRA campaign went on until 1996.
Lol @ "trouble".
In my first election it would have been like trying to influence my vote based on what Party X had said or done during the Second World War. To an 18-year old it would have made no sense whatsoever.
Good afternoon from the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka where healthcare is free and universal and education is free from primary level to university.
How are my PB Tory friends today? For what it's worth I don't believe the YouGov poll - it's drivel and they will have egg on their face come June 9th.
Just a shame Sri Lanka had to commit genocide to get to its current state.
I was trolling Sri Lanka in my opening line by the way.
Every time I come here, it's difficult for me. Am travelling to Jaffna over the weekend - let's see what awaits me there!
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
There is no incontrovertible rule that says that Article 50 is irreversible. If Corbyn says, "we're going to abandon it", A50 is stopped the following day and everyone in Europe breathes a sigh of relief.
How are my PB Tory friends today? For what it's worth I don't believe the YouGov poll - it's drivel and they will have egg on their face come June 9th.
Ofcourse it's drivel, but its giving lefties a welcome breath of fresh air in their sails, and the PB Tories are as bipolar as ever, alternating between gloating one day, and bedwetting the next... all egged on by SeanT getting his usual semi from even the possibility of a crisis, especially if it means a potential drop in London property prices
"A third of London sellers have reduced their asking prices"
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
The Tories have run a campaign that has reminded a lot of voters why they do not like the Tories. When you have a two-party system - as England and much of Wales now have again - if you don't like one party your alternative is the other one.
It is precisely Corbyn's ability to repel older voters, as well as those in certain regions such as the Midlands, that will ensure the Tories win handily next week.
Yes I would agree with that my father a conservative was upset with the Falklands regarding Corbyn with paxman .However the Ireland stuff he never mentions.My two daughters and their partners in their late twenties big Corbyn fans .The 1980s to them are history.
Yes, that's the trouble. To those in their 20s you may as well talk about the 1930s compared to the 1980s.
But those over 35 will remember very well. The IRA campaign went on until 1996.
Very true no wonder I am an old fashioned third way relic.Father Thatcherite Mother CND in 80s.Daughters Corbyn Labour Brother banker in city other brother Union man .Only election we all voted same way was 97 Blair.
Do parents influence politics ? - All grandparents and parents in the Conservatives. With the polls this close I'm wondering if those bloodlines are stronger than I'll have admitted to myself a few weeks ago :}
No press reports about the mood changing dramatically, no spin from Labour about it, nor the Tories outside of scaremongering on losing 6 seats. Something very very strange is happening. Is everyone talking to the wrong people? Are yougov, Survation etc picking up on part of a movement of the disenfranchised that nobody is expecting, targeting or talking to? It's possible. Anti politics would see Corbyn win. Anti politics is fashionable. This is going to be messy.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
I think that the Shy Tory factor may have increased significantly again. I am not a Tory and will vote Libdem, but I cannot stand Corbyn, and my wife was going on about how if you don't like Corbyn then you must be a Tory. She is very reasonable. The stuff I have seen on social media, probably propagated by the Corbynistas, is amazing. I have seen all the following - if you are a Tory you must be evil, not care about anyone else at all, hate the unemployed, want all the disabled to die, want the total destruction of the NHS in the next five years, as well as the more simple c**t, s**t or wa**er. Amid this deluge of abuse I feel that people are very reluctant about sharing any anti Corbyn opinions on social media. After someone went on about how the Corbyn IRA Story was a right wing media construction I shared the following to great abuse. http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/
I am very happy to be combative about my politics on here, but would NEVER raise it on Facebook. I never link to anything political. It's just not worth it. The Left are just SO certain that they hold the moral high-ground. It seems to be their sop for not having actual power - they can dominate the ether with their views.
Wankers.
Yes I have been very careful and only posted things where people have asked for information. I would never post anything from a right wing newspaper as it would not be worth it. The main thing that frustrates me is that it feels like censorship.
I am atypical though, a libdem reluctant remainer, now Brexit supporter, I believe in affordable social policies, and efficient taxation i.e. Sum total to exchequer more important than penalising rich, or prioritising tax cuts. There is no home for me in U.K. Politics at the moment.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
There is no incontrovertible rule that says that Article 50 is irreversible. If Corbyn says, "we're going to abandon it", A50 is stopped the following day and everyone in Europe breathes a sigh of relief.
Yesterday thet tories were 12% ahead with ICM and ahead with all other posters including yougov, yet people are discussing on here the possibility of Corbyn winning? Has this site gone mad?
This is PB, we panic at everything.
Indeed we do .... speaking of which, where's SeanT this morning?
To digress for a moment from polling and possible outcomes, it seems to be generally agreed that so far Labour are having a good campaign and the Tories a shite one. Since the evidence for practical competence from Corbyn Labour has previously been scanty, any ideas why this might be the case? Is it just the activist outlook coming into its own?
"The model was developed primarily by Professor Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics in conjunction with YouGov's Data Science team, headed by Doug Rivers of Stanford University. The data are streamed directly from YouGov's survey system to its Crunch analytic database. From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. Stan was developed at Columbia University by Andrew Gelman and his colleagues, with support from YouGov and other organisations. YouGov will be updating the model estimates on a daily basis." https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/
I know they try to explain their reasoning behind the 75 person per constituency sample size but thats a brave model.
How are my PB Tory friends today? For what it's worth I don't believe the YouGov poll - it's drivel and they will have egg on their face come June 9th.
Ofcourse it's drivel, but its giving lefties a welcome breath of fresh air in their sails, and the PB Tories are as bipolar as ever, alternating between gloating one day, and bedwetting the next... all egged on by SeanT getting his usual semi from even the possibility of a crisis, especially if it means a potential drop in London property prices
"A third of London sellers have reduced their asking prices"
Meaningless without context though. It could mean they have reduced their asking prices from "wildly optimistic" to just "quite a lot higher than this time last year".
No press reports about the mood changing dramatically, no spin from Labour about it, nor the Tories outside of scaremongering on losing 6 seats. Something very very strange is happening. Is everyone talking to the wrong people? Are yougov, Survation etc picking up on part of a movement of the disenfranchised that nobody is expecting, targeting or talking to? It's possible. Anti politics would see Corbyn win. Anti politics is fashionable. This is going to be messy.
Good afternoon from the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka where healthcare is free and universal and education is free from primary level to university.
How are my PB Tory friends today? For what it's worth I don't believe the YouGov poll - it's drivel and they will have egg on their face come June 9th.
Just a shame Sri Lanka had to commit genocide to get to its current state.
I was trolling Sri Lanka in my opening line by the way.
Every time I come here, it's difficult for me. Am travelling to Jaffna over the weekend - let's see what awaits me there!
Nor was my reply a dig at you - not least because I have no idea which side of the divide you come from.
No press reports about the mood changing dramatically, no spin from Labour about it, nor the Tories outside of scaremongering on losing 6 seats. Something very very strange is happening. Is everyone talking to the wrong people? Are yougov, Survation etc picking up on part of a movement of the disenfranchised that nobody is expecting, targeting or talking to? It's possible. Anti politics would see Corbyn win. Anti politics is fashionable. This is going to be messy.
Corbyn could be the Trump of the left, just sell moonbeams and dreams and tap into people wanting something different.
Plymouth of course has one of the higher young'un percentages. If what the polls are saying is true then the relatively few Con marginals with decent youth votes are going to be a risk.
Yesterday thet tories were 12% ahead with ICM and ahead with all other posters including yougov, yet people are discussing on here the possibility of Corbyn winning? Has this site gone mad?
This is PB, we panic at everything.
Indeed we do .... speaking of which, where's SeanT this morning?
Sean has popped in to say he is sanguine.
He now appears to favour NOM as this offers the best chance of Soft Brexit.
At this exact point in 2015 - 8 days out from polling day we had a spell of 8 polls in a row where Labour lead in six of them, and the other two were tied. We were definitely heading for a hung parliament and few believed otherwise. There was a tiny amount of swingback pre polling day (or maybe just polling accuracy improving!) , but ignoring survey monkey the last 20 polls remained neck and neck averaging a Tory lead of 1, with the highest lead being 3. We all know in the end the Tories won by 7 points.
If in 2017 the lowest Tory lead is 6 points and the last 8 polls have shown leads of 12,6,7,14,12,6,8,5 then I see little to worry about. There may be a dramatic, unprecedented swing to Labour, the polls indeed may be underweighting the Labour result and produce a vote like Yougov have. But just as likely still is the polls have it wrong as they did in 2015, and the Tory lead is in comfortable double figures with a result like 1983 on the cards.
In the aftermath of the election this yougov prediction will be forgotten, and come 2022 we'll have the same knicker wetting from the same people when another strange poll/seat calculus comes around. After all shouldn't we still be mad about Yougov's ridiculous poll in 2010 just 2 weeks before the election with a 3 point Lib Dem lead? We should, but everyone has seemingly forgotten.
Talked to our youth players last night, most of whom are in Uni.
They are ALL voting Corbyn. There has been an organised campaign in Unis to get first-time voters signed-up and out voting.
They think Tories are evil and Corbyn will make lives better for everybody.
These boys take a lot of drugs but they are all intelligent. Just goes to show how left-liberal Unis are these days: get them high, sell them the utopia and never, ever mention the comedown.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
There is no incontrovertible rule that says that Article 50 is irreversible. If Corbyn says, "we're going to abandon it", A50 is stopped the following day and everyone in Europe breathes a sigh of relief.
Yes there is. It cannot be revoked without the agreement of all 27 other members. They will extract a very large price for doing so.
Twitter: if you look at #womanshour, 28 of the top 30 tweets you see (arbitrary number, i got bored of counting after that) are strongly pro-corb/ anti Barnett, and the only pro-Barnett are journalists - Piers Morgan, John Rentoul. I find that extraordinary whatever the explanation - i.e. whether 100% of non-journo people, or 100% of twitter users, are really pro-Corbyn, or it is a massive lefty astroturfing exercise.
That is sorting tweets by "top" whatever tf that means, results look similar if sorted by "latest" though.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
I'm not sure.
He's been leave for 40 years and his radical platform is very hard to implement from within the EU - He was calling for A50 to be revoked on the morning after the referendum lol - He'll be under great pressure from the PLP to cancel Brexit though...
And pressure from his cabinet too. He couldn't just click the cancel button. But he may well seek a Jezza's deal that goes a bit further than Dave's deal.
If he does, then
a) he may get support from
* the LibDems * Emmanuel Macron * Blair (seriously!), * his own party (even the Trident faction), * Tory figures such as Heseltine * and perhaps even David Cameron, depending on how savage the Tory-against-Tory fighting is, once the party cottons on to just how execrable a leader Theresa May has been to crush her own government. In 1974 Heath had good reason to go to the country, and even then he became a hate figure for much of the party; in 2017 she had eff-all - her name will be like mud!
b) hatred from the stockbroker belt notwithstanding, he will be displaying greater skills of leadership in the true sense of that word - drive, inspiration, and the courage to tell people what they don't want to hear - than any prime minister for a very long time.
Plymouth of course has one of the higher young'un percentages. If what the polls are saying is true then the relatively few Con marginals with decent youth votes are going to be a risk.
Nevertheless it's a fair point - the big shift this time has been the decline of class and the growth of age as a driver of voting behaviour.
Hence the betting opportunities are for Labour in middle class marginal areas with lots of young people and for the Tories in working class marginal areas with lots of older people.
No press reports about the mood changing dramatically, no spin from Labour about it, nor the Tories outside of scaremongering on losing 6 seats. Something very very strange is happening. Is everyone talking to the wrong people? Are yougov, Survation etc picking up on part of a movement of the disenfranchised that nobody is expecting, targeting or talking to? It's possible. Anti politics would see Corbyn win. Anti politics is fashionable. This is going to be messy.
Is Yougov's panel packed with students, momentum activists and assorted other Corbynistas? We know the hard left does a good line in clickivism, which probably includes massed signups for online pollsters, less good at getting off the sofa to vote in person. I still think this is going to set new standards in polling disasters unless there is a massive and rather obvious herding effect in the next few days.
Mr. T, the markets can be daft sods. Worth always remembering that humans drive (and can panic) the markets.
Remember referendum night. The City had stupidly done its own exit polls (there wasn't an official one because it was too hard to model/balance) and thought Remain was in the bag. Then the night unfolded...
We'll see what happens. The Conservatives should knife Timothy, whatever else happens.
Mr. T, the markets can be daft sods. Worth always remembering that humans drive (and can panic) the markets.
Remember referendum night. The City had stupidly done its own exit polls (there wasn't an official one because it was too hard to model/balance) and thought Remain was in the bag. Then the night unfolded...
We'll see what happens. The Conservatives should knife Timothy, whatever else happens.
There'll be a queue for that.
Surely he'll be a hero for delivering four more years of Corbyn?
No press reports about the mood changing dramatically, no spin from Labour about it, nor the Tories outside of scaremongering on losing 6 seats. Something very very strange is happening. Is everyone talking to the wrong people? Are yougov, Survation etc picking up on part of a movement of the disenfranchised that nobody is expecting, targeting or talking to? It's possible. Anti politics would see Corbyn win. Anti politics is fashionable. This is going to be messy.
Yesterday the tories were 12% clear with ICM
Indeed and I'm not saying yougov are right but....... polling is based on the usual caveats applying. If anti politics Britain is turning out then usual caveats do not. For example, it's so crazy you might get Tories gain Birmingham Erdington but are only hanging on in Pudsey etc
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
"The model was developed primarily by Professor Ben Lauderdale of the London School of Economics in conjunction with YouGov's Data Science team, headed by Doug Rivers of Stanford University. The data are streamed directly from YouGov's survey system to its Crunch analytic database. From there, the models are fit using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with the open source software Stan. Stan was developed at Columbia University by Andrew Gelman and his colleagues, with support from YouGov and other organisations. YouGov will be updating the model estimates on a daily basis." https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/
I know they try to explain their reasoning behind the 75 person per constituency sample size but thats a brave model.
75 sample on a population of 72,000 (average consituency size) gives a margin of error of about 11%. Or as it is also known "worthless".
To digress for a moment from polling and possible outcomes, it seems to be generally agreed that so far Labour are having a good campaign and the Tories a shite one. Since the evidence for practical competence from Corbyn Labour has previously been scanty, any ideas why this might be the case? Is it just the activist outlook coming into its own?
I think he's risen to the occasion.
And Mrs May made the same mistake Labour moderates did. She thought give him enough airtime and he'll eventually screw it up.
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Precisely so. Or "This", to conform to the rules of interweb twattery.
To digress for a moment from polling and possible outcomes, it seems to be generally agreed that so far Labour are having a good campaign and the Tories a shite one. Since the evidence for practical competence from Corbyn Labour has previously been scanty, any ideas why this might be the case? Is it just the activist outlook coming into its own?
I think he's risen to the occasion.
And Mrs May made the same mistake Labour moderates did. She thought give him enough airtime and he'll eventually screw it up.
Yep - the irony of Mr Streeting and his rebel MP colleagues now praying that their judgement about both Corbyn and the direction of their party was utterly wrong...
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Yougov haven't asked me about politics since 2015 - but I do about 1 survey a week on other topics.
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Mr. Royale, Mr. Eagles will happily explain to the Conservatives how the Romans dealt with an overrated man who became consumed by arrogance, and hubris, and alienated his own side.
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Yougov haven't asked me about politics since 2015 - but I do about 1 survey a week on other topics.
They are all secretly political surveys. Your brand of toothpaste tells them who you will vote for.
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Yougov haven't asked me about politics since 2015 - but I do about 1 survey a week on other topics.
Yes I had my usual weekly survey on TV watching habits too , 2 surveys in 1 day !!!
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
There is no incontrovertible rule that says that Article 50 is irreversible. If Corbyn says, "we're going to abandon it", A50 is stopped the following day and everyone in Europe breathes a sigh of relief.
Yes there is. It cannot be revoked without the agreement of all 27 other members. They will extract a very large price for doing so.
They are going to exact a very large price for going through with A50 so we are stuffed either way.
Psephologically speaking what has happened? FWIW I still think May will get a decent majority - but I'm not at all sure. But she was nearly 25% ahead only a month ago! Was that bullshit? Have opinions really changed so much? Labour was in a death sprial and now seems to be Lazarus. Que passa? Was it Dementia Tax? Was it the lumpenprolitariat's bottomless appetite for jam? Personally I find it highly weird and frankly scary that over 1/3 of my countrymen can look at Corbyn/McDonnel/Abbot and not want to vomit. (The Patrician Empire school curriculum will be updated to include history, lessons therefrom and objective morality.)
I think that the Shy Tory factor may have increased significantly again. I am not a Tory and will vote Libdem, but I cannot stand Corbyn, and my wife was going on about how if you don't like Corbyn then you must be a Tory. She is very reasonable. The stuff I have seen on social media, probably propagated by the Corbynistas, is amazing. I have seen all the following - if you are a Tory you must be evil, not care about anyone else at all, hate the unemployed, want all the disabled to die, want the total destruction of the NHS in the next five years, as well as the more simple c**t, s**t or wa**er. Amid this deluge of abuse I feel that people are very reluctant about sharing any anti Corbyn opinions on social media. After someone went on about how the Corbyn IRA Story was a right wing media construction I shared the following to great abuse. http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/
I am very happy to be combative about my politics on here, but would NEVER raise it on Facebook. I never link to anything political. It's just not worth it. The Left are just SO certain that they hold the moral high-ground. It seems to be their sop for not having actual power - they can dominate the ether with their views.
Wankers.
I am sure that you are not the only one. I am merely pointing out that there is a counternarative to the Tory IRA ad, and the polls show which is having an effect.
Although I don't think we have had much polling which would have taken in the IRA ad views yet....too soon to know if it is having an effect, an if so, in which regions.
TM in Plymouth says it all. She is losing ground.
Couldn't she be there to support security message, and also get on local news across the area, there are a lot of libdem marginals to defend.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
So basically EU membership in all but name. Yes that's possible.
Yes, staying in the Single Market makes rejoining so much simpler...
In a way, but the fallout from giving up any pretense of controlling immigration could make things very nasty
May's said "Brexit means Brexit" which suggests no deal, but surely she can't get away with that. Exiting the single market will/would be very painful. Perhaps in the long term we could make it work, but in the short term it's economically damaging and (paradoxically) politically fatal. Surely any sane leader would want to maintain as many of the current arrangements as possible. Is that possible without alienating the Leave-voting public? Yes and yes. Firstly, the government only has to impress a fraction of those Leave voters in order to have the support of a majority of the population. Secondly, there were already many ways the government could've reassured people about free movement. It could've been tougher on ensuring that emigrants don't get benefits they're not entitled to, including free interpreting services, and had more civil servants working on getting the money we're owed from other EU countries because of reciprocal arranagements, especially in healthcare. It could've closed loopholes that allowed e.g. the Big Issue to employ thousands of economic migrants. It could've issued migrants with ID cards or at least tracked them much better so that we know who's overstayed their welcome. Lots of things we could've done but didn't when it was expedient not to bother and when it suited us to have the EU as a bogeyman that politicians and the media could treat as the common enemy.
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Well quite. Plus the whole methodology is based on people not lying, or worse still strategically gaming the system, when they complete their application and polls, either about their voting intentions (to send a cost free message to whichever party) or their previous voting record and demographic details (to bias the sample and hence the result)
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
The legal advice on whether A50 could be abandoned/withdrawn was sufficiently unclear as to allow politicians to do whatever they like. HMG would simply need to agree with the EUC.
William Hill are now odds on (1/2) for the first time that Theresa May will NOT be the Conservative leader for the next General Election.
Blimey, and it's only 8 days away!
Assuming this means the next election but one, this is poor value as your money is tied up for so long for a start.
But it isn't all that shocking as an estimate of likelihood. One thing that has particularly struck me is how much May obviously hates campaigning. She's not very good at it, and would rather be anywhere else.
She's not an especially young PM and, even if she isn't chased out by uppity backbenchers and a revived opposition, she may very well take the opportunity to go down as the PM who took Britain out of the EU, and step down the day the deal is completed and we're out of the door. I'm not sure why she'd want to fight one in 2021/22.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
The legal advice on whether A50 could be abandoned/withdrawn was sufficiently unclear as to allow politicians to do whatever they like. HMG would simply need to agree with the EUC.
Anything can be fudged in the EU.
Indeed, does anyone think given the chance the EU would want to make it all go away and lock the UK back into it?
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Good lord.
He's not the only one - I did one back at the start and two in the last 6 days.
Maybe it really is austerity. I deserted the Tories mid coalition when it was obvious it was all an exercise in transferring public wealth to the rich. I've been approaching 2017 on the basis I'm terrified of Corbyn. That's really on his past views and on Brexit getting messed up and Labour's weakness as I perceive it on defence, anti terror and immigration. Weak Britain being a fear. Plus I don't think he can command the confidence of the PLP. I'm voting Green as a protest as I did in 2015, but was much less concerned about a May victory, in fact I quite like her. Wanted to see Brexit delivered then see how the land lies and what the vision for UK indy should be next time. Maybe I'm wrong, I'm thinking that now. Maybe it really is time to burn austerity down and invest. Austerity has failed and has transferred wealth to the rich. It sucks and there is no end in sight. I detest Corbyn but I'm sick of austerity. I'm tired of the disabled getting clobbered, I'm pissed off that the rich haven't suffered for 2008, that the banks whom I worked for and know how reckless they were have not paid. I'm saying there's an anger under my reasoned thoughts on the two leaders. The anger sometimes boils over despite the ludicrous labour leadership not because of it. Interesting and concerning times.
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Good lord.
He's not the only one - I did one back at the start and two in the last 6 days.
Twitter: if you look at #womanshour, 28 of the top 30 tweets you see (arbitrary number, i got bored of counting after that) are strongly pro-corb/ anti Barnett, and the only pro-Barnett are journalists - Piers Morgan, John Rentoul. I find that extraordinary whatever the explanation - i.e. whether 100% of non-journo people, or 100% of twitter users, are really pro-Corbyn, or it is a massive lefty astroturfing exercise.
That is sorting tweets by "top" whatever tf that means, results look similar if sorted by "latest" though.
If we look at the numbers for retweets and likes, we are always talking hundreds or at best low thousands though. Many will have 2 accounts, many will be foreign citizens and some will be too young to vote. Twitter is the ultimate echo chamber and I know very few people who use it, and certainly no one over the age of 40. On my facebook I have nearly 500 'friends', the majority youngish, urban and potentially left leaning. Of these around 40 regularly post politicial views. 39 are Corbyn supporters and 1 is a Tory. They do not get many likes or shares on their articles because most people either don't agree or don't want their newsfeeds to be filled with politics and propaganda. I know many of my facebook friends who don't post politics who prefer May to Corbyn and will vote Tory, and my hunch is that the militant enthusiasm of the left is leading to a lot of shy younger Tory voters keeping their heads down in greater numbers than usual.
No press reports about the mood changing dramatically, no spin from Labour about it, nor the Tories outside of scaremongering on losing 6 seats. Something very very strange is happening. Is everyone talking to the wrong people? Are yougov, Survation etc picking up on part of a movement of the disenfranchised that nobody is expecting, targeting or talking to? It's possible. Anti politics would see Corbyn win. Anti politics is fashionable. This is going to be messy.
My guess - People are seriously p*ssed about May's social care and WFA policies and are expressing that displeasure through the pollsters...
But they'll still vote May on the day and she'll win 42% to 30%.
If Corbyn wins, then I fully expect him to simily cancel Brexit. He'll say it's too difficult and wants to focus on domestic matters, even if he doesn't formally do it, but just push it into the long grass forever.
Not an option, the clock is ticking. A soft Brexit with the 4 freedoms would not have the same obstacles though, and Starmer could sort that.
The legal advice on whether A50 could be abandoned/withdrawn was sufficiently unclear as to allow politicians to do whatever they like. HMG would simply need to agree with the EUC.
Anything can be fudged in the EU.
It would be suspended indefinitely, and the UK could legally sign-up again (formally) at the next EU treaty in the next 5 years or so.
Hell, the EU might even put some of Dave's deal back on the table.
What's in it for them?
They'd have made their point, and won. For good.
(for clarity, I still want to fully Leave, I am merely stating how the politics might go)
No press reports about the mood changing dramatically, no spin from Labour about it, nor the Tories outside of scaremongering on losing 6 seats. Something very very strange is happening. Is everyone talking to the wrong people? Are yougov, Survation etc picking up on part of a movement of the disenfranchised that nobody is expecting, targeting or talking to? It's possible. Anti politics would see Corbyn win. Anti politics is fashionable. This is going to be messy.
Yesterday the tories were 12% clear with ICM
Indeed and I'm not saying yougov are right but....... polling is based on the usual caveats applying. If anti politics Britain is turning out then usual caveats do not. For example, it's so crazy you might get Tories gain Birmingham Erdington but are only hanging on in Pudsey etc
I dont understand why people think this election is any different to previous ones. If Labour were 12% ahead in some polls and 6% ahead in others would the discussion be about a potential tory victory?
Looking at that YouGov projection (Con 310, Lab 257, SNP 50, NI 18, LD 10, PC 3, Green 1 plus the Speaker), unless Sturgeon does a deal with May (and sticks to it with May's replacement), which is unlikely, I think there would have to be an NI angle.
Todays Telegraph has news to steady some of the nerves on here this morning:
"Social care wobbles aside, come June 9, our Polling Calibration technique is forecasting a Conservative majority of 103-108. It's time to buy Sterling and sells shares in YouGov."
No press reports about the mood changing dramatically, no spin from Labour about it, nor the Tories outside of scaremongering on losing 6 seats. Something very very strange is happening. Is everyone talking to the wrong people? Are yougov, Survation etc picking up on part of a movement of the disenfranchised that nobody is expecting, targeting or talking to? It's possible. Anti politics would see Corbyn win. Anti politics is fashionable. This is going to be messy.
Yesterday the tories were 12% clear with ICM
Indeed and I'm not saying yougov are right but....... polling is based on the usual caveats applying. If anti politics Britain is turning out then usual caveats do not. For example, it's so crazy you might get Tories gain Birmingham Erdington but are only hanging on in Pudsey etc
I dont understand why people think this election is any different to previous ones. If Labour were 12% ahead in some polls and 6% ahead in others would the discussion be about a potential tory victory?
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Yougov haven't asked me about politics since 2015 - but I do about 1 survey a week on other topics.
Can anyone tell me what YouGov does to verify the identity and data of its users?
Talked to our youth players last night, most of whom are in Uni.
They are ALL voting Corbyn. There has been an organised campaign in Unis to get first-time voters signed-up and out voting.
They think Tories are evil and Corbyn will make lives better for everybody.
These boys take a lot of drugs but they are all intelligent. Just goes to show how left-liberal Unis are these days: get them high, sell them the utopia and never, ever mention the comedown.
Sounds like Haight Ashbury in the 60s.
I'd have loved to have been in Haight Ashbury in the '60s.
I have just completed a new Yougov VI poll , my 3rd this GE . Wonder if TSE has been polled as usual . 800,000 panel representatively sampled , bollocks .
Good lord.
He's not the only one - I did one back at the start and two in the last 6 days.
Panel effects. Massive, huge panel effects.
Unlike TSE, I am statistically deeply dull (and if I'm not then their panel is massively messed up.)
Couldn't she be there to support security message, and also get on local news across the area, there are a lot of libdem marginals to defend.
But if she's worried about losing seats to the Lib Dems or Labour, she's losing ground. A couple of weeks ago, we were talking about whether her majority would be nearer 100 or 200. Today, she's in an area where there are almost no gains to be made, and her manifesto relaunch was in Twickenham, where again there is a sitting Tory MP.
Mr. Royale, Mr. Eagles will happily explain to the Conservatives how the Romans dealt with an overrated man who became consumed by arrogance, and hubris, and alienated his own side.
FWIW, this smacks of GE1992 to me.
May is acting more like Thatcher in 1988, but then the poll-tax was canned late doors - as the dementia tax has largely been now - and although Labour looked on course for a win, didn't.
Sheer terror of Corbyn should clinch this for May, but it will be somewhat reluctantly and her reputation will be shot to pieces in the process and she'll be gravely weakened.
I could see GE2022 being a landslide defeat for the Tories, if Labour get the right leader.
Comments
Tories can say Labour will open the gates to the Mongol hordes who will bivouac in their thousands in suburban streets. That smacks of desperation!
BBC looks at dark advertising, saying heavily targeted at lefties in marginals. If so that makes the 4.6m views so far look a lot bigger than it did (i.e. even if the viewers were the population at large it would be a big number, if targeted like that it must be equivalent to a non-targeted video getting to 30m. Usual caution applies that someone who dismissed it after 3 seconds would count as a view).
BBC
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-40059846
You can see the main video at
https://order-order.com/2017/05/27/corbyn-ira-attack-ad-hits-1-million-views/
(URL out of date!)
I'm officially sitting out the betting aside from a few quid on Scottish constituencies for some fun and interest on the night. I've got a couple of quid on UKIP in Thanet South in case expenses plays games there.
If most of the PLP decide not support Corbyn as PM, but to support XX, and XX can command a majority in them House, then XX is PM.
Admittedly it was wrong about which exact seats they would be but it got the number right!
https://twitter.com/FT/status/869592258424832000
Hmm indeed.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/
Also, Perez is reportedly in talks with Renault to replace Palmer, which would make the 2018 Renault line-up the same as the 2016 Force India pairing. Hulkenberg and Perez are undoubtedly a great pair for a midfield team (or perhaps even higher).
If it happens, Ocon's done very well in his first full season (to date), but I'm not sure who'd be next in line. Sainz is very good and Toro Rosso have a habit of throwing out drivers after a few years, and there seems to be no room at the Red Bull inn.
On the other hand, potential departures for Bottas and Raikkonen mean the better midfield drivers will also have an eye on that.
As many of our European peers have nationalised rail and energy industries I have always worked on the basis that this is something of a canard.
In my first election it would have been like trying to influence my vote based on what Party X had said or done during the Second World War. To an 18-year old it would have made no sense whatsoever.
Every time I come here, it's difficult for me. Am travelling to Jaffna over the weekend - let's see what awaits me there!
http://www.chestertons.com/research-and-insight/research/a-third-of-london-sellers-have-reduced-their-asking-prices/
It's possible. Anti politics would see Corbyn win. Anti politics is fashionable. This is going to be messy.
I am atypical though, a libdem reluctant remainer, now Brexit supporter, I believe in affordable social policies, and efficient taxation i.e. Sum total to exchequer more important than penalising rich, or prioritising tax cuts. There is no home for me in U.K. Politics at the moment.
Oops, please disregard, I see he's here already!
https://www.plymouth.ac.uk/student-life/your-studies/term-dates
He now appears to favour NOM as this offers the best chance of Soft Brexit.
Funny old world.
If in 2017 the lowest Tory lead is 6 points and the last 8 polls have shown leads of 12,6,7,14,12,6,8,5 then I see little to worry about. There may be a dramatic, unprecedented swing to Labour, the polls indeed may be underweighting the Labour result and produce a vote like Yougov have. But just as likely still is the polls have it wrong as they did in 2015, and the Tory lead is in comfortable double figures with a result like 1983 on the cards.
In the aftermath of the election this yougov prediction will be forgotten, and come 2022 we'll have the same knicker wetting from the same people when another strange poll/seat calculus comes around. After all shouldn't we still be mad about Yougov's ridiculous poll in 2010 just 2 weeks before the election with a 3 point Lib Dem lead? We should, but everyone has seemingly forgotten.
They are ALL voting Corbyn. There has been an organised campaign in Unis to get first-time voters signed-up and out voting.
They think Tories are evil and Corbyn will make lives better for everybody.
These boys take a lot of drugs but they are all intelligent. Just goes to show how left-liberal Unis are these days: get them high, sell them the utopia and never, ever mention the comedown.
Sounds like Haight Ashbury in the 60s.
That is sorting tweets by "top" whatever tf that means, results look similar if sorted by "latest" though.
If he does, then
a) he may get support from
* the LibDems
* Emmanuel Macron
* Blair (seriously!),
* his own party (even the Trident faction),
* Tory figures such as Heseltine
* and perhaps even David Cameron, depending on how savage the Tory-against-Tory fighting is, once the party cottons on to just how execrable a leader Theresa May has been to crush her own government. In 1974 Heath had good reason to go to the country, and even then he became a hate figure for much of the party; in 2017 she had eff-all - her name will be like mud!
b) hatred from the stockbroker belt notwithstanding, he will be displaying greater skills of leadership in the true sense of that word - drive, inspiration, and the courage to tell people what they don't want to hear - than any prime minister for a very long time.
Hence the betting opportunities are for Labour in middle class marginal areas with lots of young people and for the Tories in working class marginal areas with lots of older people.
Sad to hear anti-Barcid sentiment and Punic prejudice still in the political system. You're not a Cato supporter, are you?
For example, it's so crazy you might get Tories gain Birmingham Erdington but are only hanging on in Pudsey etc
And Mrs May made the same mistake Labour moderates did. She thought give him enough airtime and he'll eventually screw it up.
Mr. Pulpstar, maybe. Conservatives do like regicide, and the PCP will not be well-disposed towards May.
Assuming this means the next election but one, this is poor value as your money is tied up for so long for a start.
But it isn't all that shocking as an estimate of likelihood. One thing that has particularly struck me is how much May obviously hates campaigning. She's not very good at it, and would rather be anywhere else.
She's not an especially young PM and, even if she isn't chased out by uppity backbenchers and a revived opposition, she may very well take the opportunity to go down as the PM who took Britain out of the EU, and step down the day the deal is completed and we're out of the door. I'm not sure why she'd want to fight one in 2021/22.
Maybe I'm wrong, I'm thinking that now. Maybe it really is time to burn austerity down and invest. Austerity has failed and has transferred wealth to the rich. It sucks and there is no end in sight. I detest Corbyn but I'm sick of austerity. I'm tired of the disabled getting clobbered, I'm pissed off that the rich haven't suffered for 2008, that the banks whom I worked for and know how reckless they were have not paid.
I'm saying there's an anger under my reasoned thoughts on the two leaders. The anger sometimes boils over despite the ludicrous labour leadership not because of it.
Interesting and concerning times.
On my facebook I have nearly 500 'friends', the majority youngish, urban and potentially left leaning. Of these around 40 regularly post politicial views. 39 are Corbyn supporters and 1 is a Tory. They do not get many likes or shares on their articles because most people either don't agree or don't want their newsfeeds to be filled with politics and propaganda. I know many of my facebook friends who don't post politics who prefer May to Corbyn and will vote Tory, and my hunch is that the militant enthusiasm of the left is leading to a lot of shy younger Tory voters keeping their heads down in greater numbers than usual.
But they'll still vote May on the day and she'll win 42% to 30%.
Hell, the EU might even put some of Dave's deal back on the table.
What's in it for them?
They'd have made their point, and won. For good.
(for clarity, I still want to fully Leave, I am merely stating how the politics might go)
"Social care wobbles aside, come June 9, our Polling Calibration technique is forecasting a Conservative majority of 103-108. It's time to buy Sterling and sells shares in YouGov."
Michael Moszynski
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougov-pollsters-getting-wrong-theresa-may-still-set-landslide/
How is Eastleigh looking ?
May is acting more like Thatcher in 1988, but then the poll-tax was canned late doors - as the dementia tax has largely been now - and although Labour looked on course for a win, didn't.
Sheer terror of Corbyn should clinch this for May, but it will be somewhat reluctantly and her reputation will be shot to pieces in the process and she'll be gravely weakened.
I could see GE2022 being a landslide defeat for the Tories, if Labour get the right leader.