politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The size of her majority will determine the sort of PM Theresa
Comments
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malcolmg said:
Take a much stronger wind to blow her over versus MayDavid_Evershed said:
Is Davidson more strong and more stable than May?HYUFD said:
Certainly and Davidson has Sturgeon on the back foot, though I can's see the SNP getting less than 45 myself, they will lose barely any seats in Glasgow and Dundee and the Central Belt, the big swings against them will be in the borders and rural Scotland, Edinburgh and AberdeenQuincel said:
If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.HYUFD said:
If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotlandkle4 said:
Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.TGOHF said:
New Scotland poll ?
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
I'm not going to read too much into it.
17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.
I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.
Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.
32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.
I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.
Is the wind of change blowing across Scotland?0 -
Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.kle4 said:
My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.Pulpstar said:
Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.kle4 said:But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.
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He's been deployed as a reliable attack dog before, and is so mundane he is forgettable otherwise, so I assume he has been thought of as a steady pair of hands.Mexicanpete said:
Corbyn would be a disaster on so many fronts, not least for the future credibility of his own party. Car crash Brexit is equally likely under Labour as it is under the Conservatives.AlastairMeeks said:Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?
The answer isn't obvious.
Much hilarity has been generated here by Diane Abbott, but was Sir Michael Fallon always this inept? Thinking Peston as well as Guru Murthy.0 -
Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/8686202506648903680 -
Do Labour candidates wish they had put Corbyn's picture on their leaflets after all?0
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Not sure, but five years of Jeremy Corbyn's Brexit is the fast track to Venezuela.AlastairMeeks said:Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?
The answer isn't obvious.0 -
I'll keep saying this until I'm blue in the face. Those corporates would be idiots. The money-printing genie is out of the bottle; the UK cannot default in sterling, it can always create more sterling.Charles said:Corporate debt is priced at a premium to sovereign debt but the sovereign debt premium vs T-bonds will go up (so our debt is more expensive) - this is over all UK government debt so in absolute terms even more. Corporates will raise funds in other currencies to minimise the impact.
The risk if this is used outside of a global recession caused by a collapse in credit and demand (and one day it surely will be now the politicians and speculators know where the sweetie jar lives) is therefore not default, it's hyperinflation as people rightly view repayment with printed money as a crypto-default and treat sterling as monopoly money.
The corporates who continued to borrow in sterling would see their debt inflated away relative to their assets. The corporates who borrowed in swiss francs would be crucified.0 -
Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.Pulpstar said:
Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.kle4 said:
My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.Pulpstar said:
Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.kle4 said:But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.
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No, just the SNP gale has reduced a bit, meaning it is safe for some others to step outside.David_Evershed said:malcolmg said:
Take a much stronger wind to blow her over versus MayDavid_Evershed said:
Is Davidson more strong and more stable than May?HYUFD said:
Certainly and Davidson has Sturgeon on the back foot, though I can's see the SNP getting less than 45 myself, they will lose barely any seats in Glasgow and Dundee and the Central Belt, the big swings against them will be in the borders and rural Scotland, Edinburgh and AberdeenQuincel said:
If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.HYUFD said:
If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotlandkle4 said:
Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.TGOHF said:
New Scotland poll ?
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
I'm not going to read too much into it.
17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.
I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.
Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.
32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.
I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.
Is the wind of change blowing across Scotland?0 -
It's a 'clear mark'David_Evershed said:
Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.Pulpstar said:
Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.kle4 said:
My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.Pulpstar said:
Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.kle4 said:But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.
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The replies to that tweet are a object lesson in Corbynite delusions. Apparently the NI Peace Process happened because of 27 years of spadework being put in by Jezza.... the Nobel Peace Prize can only be days away.ThreeQuidder said:
Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/868620250664890368
Strangely no one seems able to find a incident of him meeting with (former) loyalist terrorists under similar circumstances.0 -
I've seen votes accepted where there was a mark in the Labour box, but the voter had crossed out the candidates name and written 'Aneurin Bevan'.David_Evershed said:
Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.Pulpstar said:
Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.kle4 said:
My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.Pulpstar said:
Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.kle4 said:But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.
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Quickest way to gauge whether or not the "youth" has turned out (For Corbyn) will be to look at the Sheffield Central turnout, and see how much Paul Blomfeld is up by.0
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It's a clear mark. It'll count.David_Evershed said:
Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.Pulpstar said:
Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.kle4 said:
My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.Pulpstar said:
Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.kle4 said:But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.
Edit: The always on-the-ball Pulpstar got there first0 -
At its most charitable, Corbyn overplays his role in events on this issue, and his arch-supporters definitely do.AlsoIndigo said:
The replies to that tweet are a object lesson in Corbynite delusions. Apparently the NI Peace Process happened because of 27 years of spadework being put in by Jezza.... the Nobel Peace Prize can only be days away.ThreeQuidder said:
Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/868620250664890368
Strangely no one seems able to find a incident of him meeting with (former) loyalist terrorists under similar circumstances.0 -
Some of them.David_Evershed said:Do Labour candidates wish they had put Corbyn's picture on their leaflets after all?
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Not everyone thinks in left-right terms. Corbyn appeals to people who are disiollusioned with the Government for some reason (there is always a chunk of 30+% who feel that way) and who like his calm, polite style. My anecdotal impression from a small number of conversations (half a dozen) is also that the intensity of the "he's a terrorist sympathiser" campaign is alienating some women voters, who think it's simply unfair on this mild old chap and the Tories are just doing a hatchet job.MarqueeMark said:
Who are those 8% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour??? If there is one suspect number in their findings, it has to be that one. "Yeah, I really liked that Toff Corbyn, but the vicar's daughter puts me right off, so I'm voting for the old Trot...."
From Toff to Trot is some political journey. I can imagine a few making it. But 8%???
Looking at the YouGov tables, I see that although Labour has gone down 2 (almost entirely because "don't knows" have shifted by 4 in their "leaning" tendency), Corbyn's rating has improved further by net +7. Note also that YouGov does weight by stated certainty to vote - the difference from ICM is that ICM weights by whether people say they voted last time (which means that first-time voters are automatically weighted down).0 -
Jim Cunningham in Coventry South ought to have done so in St Michaels ward for sure.kle4 said:
Some of them.David_Evershed said:Do Labour candidates wish they had put Corbyn's picture on their leaflets after all?
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I successfully argued for a vote at a borough council election where someone had written a short obscenity within the box next to my name.kle4 said:
I've seen votes accepted where there was a mark in the Labour box, but the voter had crossed out the candidates name and written 'Aneurin Bevan'.David_Evershed said:
Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.Pulpstar said:
Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.kle4 said:
My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.Pulpstar said:
Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.kle4 said:But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.
The returning officer happened to be a good friend of mine of long standing from our local cricket club and he never let me live it down.0 -
All Labour voters should be encouraged to scrub out their candidate's name and write in "Not that IRA-loving Jeremy". I'm sure it will be fine....kle4 said:
I've seen votes accepted where there was a mark in the Labour box, but the voter had crossed out the candidates name and written 'Aneurin Bevan'.David_Evershed said:
Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.Pulpstar said:
Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.kle4 said:
My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.Pulpstar said:
Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.kle4 said:But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.
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Her voice really grates and I can't be arsed to watch it.calum said:
Who does she pick,. please?0 -
I'll go further - most people do not, even if they say they do.NickPalmer said:
Not everyone thinks in left-right terms.MarqueeMark said:
Who are those 8% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour??? If there is one suspect number in their findings, it has to be that one. "Yeah, I really liked that Toff Corbyn, but the vicar's daughter puts me right off, so I'm voting for the old Trot...."
From Toff to Trot is some political journey. I can imagine a few making it. But 8%???
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Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.-1
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I'll give that a definite AGREEkle4 said:
I'll go further - most people do not, even if they say they do.NickPalmer said:
Not everyone thinks in left-right terms.MarqueeMark said:
Who are those 8% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour??? If there is one suspect number in their findings, it has to be that one. "Yeah, I really liked that Toff Corbyn, but the vicar's daughter puts me right off, so I'm voting for the old Trot...."
From Toff to Trot is some political journey. I can imagine a few making it. But 8%???0 -
ThomasNashe said:
Christ almighty!!! I don't have much confidence in May/ Rudd, but I simply don't understand how anyone can countenance her as Home Secretary. For this reason, though I will probably need the requisite nose-peg and surgical gloves, at the age of 53 I will be voting Tory on June 8 for the first (and I hope only) time in my life.isam said:ThomasNashe said:
Christ almighty!!! I don't have much confidence in May/ Rudd, but I simply don't understand how anyone can countenance her as Home Secretary. For this reason, though I will probably need the requisite nose-peg and surgical gloves, at the age of 53 I will be voting Tory on June 8 for the first (and I hope only) time in my life.isam said:
Likewise, except I am 46. Sent off my postal this morning - I was wearing gardening gloves rather than surgical gloves though as it went into the postbox.ThomasNashe said:
Christ almighty!!! I don't have much confidence in May/ Rudd, but I simply don't understand how anyone can countenance her as Home Secretary. For this reason, though I will probably need the requisite nose-peg and surgical gloves, at the age of 53 I will be voting Tory on June 8 for the first (and I hope only) time in my life.isam said:0 -
As I posted last night, Sheffield Central has the largest % of 16-24 of any constituency.Pulpstar said:Quickest way to gauge whether or not the "youth" has turned out (For Corbyn) will be to look at the Sheffield Central turnout, and see how much Paul Blomfeld is up by.
However that does not mean it is representative of anywhere other than Labour inner-city seats.
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Well, some of the 8% have probably had the fear of God put into them of losing their home for social care.kle4 said:
I'll go further - most people do not, even if they say they do.NickPalmer said:
Not everyone thinks in left-right terms.MarqueeMark said:
Who are those 8% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour??? If there is one suspect number in their findings, it has to be that one. "Yeah, I really liked that Toff Corbyn, but the vicar's daughter puts me right off, so I'm voting for the old Trot...."
From Toff to Trot is some political journey. I can imagine a few making it. But 8%???0 -
Ducked it of course, what else could she do?GeoffM said:
Doesn't want Tory government which is bad for Scotland, but says Labour has to answer for putting up a leader with a credibility problem (although does phrase it as 'lacks credibility in terms of people's perception of his ability to be PM'), so the only strong voice for Scotland is SNP.0 -
Corbyn's Labour seems a strange harbour to head towards if they are worried about losing wealth.....rottenborough said:
Well, some of the 8% have probably had the fear of God put into them of losing their home for social care.kle4 said:
I'll go further - most people do not, even if they say they do.NickPalmer said:
Not everyone thinks in left-right terms.MarqueeMark said:
Who are those 8% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour??? If there is one suspect number in their findings, it has to be that one. "Yeah, I really liked that Toff Corbyn, but the vicar's daughter puts me right off, so I'm voting for the old Trot...."
From Toff to Trot is some political journey. I can imagine a few making it. But 8%???0 -
On topic, I think to get your own Sion Simon moment you need something to stand out, and make it truly your own style of wrong prediction. Should have had a reference to Hannibal in the title (again).0
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Oh I know, seats like Sheffield Central really won't be important in the election. That's not really my point though. Due to the demographic profile, and the only seat above 30% that you posted it is the quickest method to determine whether Corbyn has got the youth to come out this time round. Last GE it was ~ 55.7% turnout, and 58% or so Labour. So plenty of scope for (Electorally useless) improvement from Labour here.brokenwheel said:
As I posted last night, Sheffield Central has the largest % of 16-24 of any constituency.Pulpstar said:Quickest way to gauge whether or not the "youth" has turned out (For Corbyn) will be to look at the Sheffield Central turnout, and see how much Paul Blomfeld is up by.
However that does not mean it is representative of anywhere other than Labour inner-city seats.
If Blomfeld gets over 30,000 votes say then I don't think anyone will be able to accuse the young vote of not getting to the polling booths.0 -
Yes, we remember his calm, polite approach on that Sky interview when asked if he was going to be leader in 2020... and his calm, polite approach to handling journalists, and not forgetting his calm, polite approach when about campaigning with SadiqNickPalmer said:Corbyn appeals to people who are disiollusioned with the Government for some reason (there is always a chunk of 30+% who feel that way) and who like his calm, polite style.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/havent-you-anything-ask-jeremy-10157256
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1304140/Angry-Corbyn-confronts-reporter-accusing-cowardice.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3510555/Calm-Jeremy-Labour-leader-Corbyn-nearly-snaps-s-confronted-critics-campaigning-mayoral-hopeful-Sadiq-Khan.html0 -
How many people did the IRA murder in 2013 - compared with 1983?ThreeQuidder said:
Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/8686202506648903680 -
Being genuine now, apart from Abbott, I cannot think of more than the occasional poor moment during the Labour campaign. She has had several, there have been one or two other examples, and Corbyn has had a pretty decent go of it, so she is the only one really messing up their message - because even where she is on message she delivers poorly.Floater said:0 -
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Most likely under 45 Remain voters with home owning parents (though of course Labour would reverse most of Osborne's IHT cut and the Tories will now cap care costs)MarqueeMark said:
Who are those 8% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour??? If there is one suspect number in their findings, it has to be that one. "Yeah, I really liked that Toff Corbyn, but the vicar's daughter puts me right off, so I'm voting for the old Trot...."HYUFD said:Yougov has the Tories winning 8% of 2015 Labour voters and Labour winning 8% of 2015 Tory voters. The Tories are winning 23% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Tories. Labour are winning 19% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Labour voters. 56% of 2015 UKIP voters have gone to the Tories and 15% to Labour.
51% of 2016 EU referendum Remain voters are voting Labour, 24% Tory and 15% LD, 64% of referendum Leave voters are voting Tory, 20% Labour and 8% UKIP
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf
From Toff to Trot is some political journey. I can imagine a few making it. But 8%???0 -
In general, he has a calm, polite style. Certainly he has lost his cool on occasion, but when he doesn't lose it, and he has had a good campaign, he has a laid back kind of appeal which makes him seem more reasonable than may be the case.AlsoIndigo said:
Yes, we remember his calm, polite approach on that Sky interview when asked if he was going to be leader in 2020... and his calm, polite approach to handling journalists, and not forgetting his calm, polite approach when about campaigning with SadiqNickPalmer said:Corbyn appeals to people who are disiollusioned with the Government for some reason (there is always a chunk of 30+% who feel that way) and who like his calm, polite style.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/havent-you-anything-ask-jeremy-10157256
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1304140/Angry-Corbyn-confronts-reporter-accusing-cowardice.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3510555/Calm-Jeremy-Labour-leader-Corbyn-nearly-snaps-s-confronted-critics-campaigning-mayoral-hopeful-Sadiq-Khan.html0 -
It does, but people are not always rational.MarqueeMark said:
Corbyn's Labour seems a strange harbour to head towards if they are worried about losing wealth.....rottenborough said:
Well, some of the 8% have probably had the fear of God put into them of losing their home for social care.kle4 said:
I'll go further - most people do not, even if they say they do.NickPalmer said:
Not everyone thinks in left-right terms.MarqueeMark said:
Who are those 8% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour??? If there is one suspect number in their findings, it has to be that one. "Yeah, I really liked that Toff Corbyn, but the vicar's daughter puts me right off, so I'm voting for the old Trot...."
From Toff to Trot is some political journey. I can imagine a few making it. But 8%???0 -
Unless tactical voting yesDavid_Evershed said:
Lib Dems net switching to both Conservative and Labour - means Lib Dems losing seats rather than winning seats.HYUFD said:Yougov has the Tories winning 8% of 2015 Labour voters and Labour winning 8% of 2015 Tory voters. The Tories are winning 23% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Tories. Labour are winning 19% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Labour voters. 56% of 2015 UKIP voters have gone to the Tories and 15% to Labour.
51% of 2016 EU referendum Remain voters are voting Labour, 24% Tory and 15% LD, 64% of referendum Leave voters are voting Tory, 20% Labour and 8% UKIP
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf0 -
Let's just say she has a much lower centre of gravity than Theresa. Kind of shetland pony versus thoroughbredMarqueeMark said:
Are you suggesting the Blessed Ruth is a Weeble?malcolmg said:
Take a much stronger wind to blow her over versus MayDavid_Evershed said:
Is Davidson more strong and more stable than May?HYUFD said:
Certainly and Davidson has Sturgeon on the back foot, though I can's see the SNP getting less than 45 myself, they will lose barely any seats in Glasgow and Dundee and the Central Belt, the big swings against them will be in the borders and rural Scotland, Edinburgh and AberdeenQuincel said:
If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.HYUFD said:
If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotlandkle4 said:
Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.TGOHF said:
New Scotland poll ?
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
I'm not going to read too much into it.
17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.
I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.
Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.
32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.
I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.
Weebles wobble - but they don't fall down. Sounds more apt for the Blessed Theresa!0 -
The SNP are still solidly over 40% - the big surprise is SLAB's resliance - they could still pip SCON for 2nd place should things deteriorate further for the Tories. I think the SNP will focus on them protecting pensioners from the ravages of the Dementia tax etc - they now have a good way of targeting their weakest demographic.David_Evershed said:malcolmg said:
Take a much stronger wind to blow her over versus MayDavid_Evershed said:
Is Davidson more strong and more stable than May?HYUFD said:
Certainly and Davidson has Sturgeon on the back foot, though I can's see the SNP getting less than 45 myself, they will lose barely any seats in Glasgow and Dundee and the Central Belt, the big swings against them will be in the borders and rural Scotland, Edinburgh and AberdeenQuincel said:
If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.HYUFD said:
If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotlandkle4 said:
Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.TGOHF said:
New Scotland poll ?
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
I'm not going to read too much into it.
17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.
I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.
Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.
32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.
I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.
Is the wind of change blowing across Scotland?0 -
I don't think that is quite right.. default risk on a sterling instrument would be assessed with respect to the gilt of comparable maturity which is assumed risk free in a certain sense. You've got to take account of interest rate expectations in the issuing currency.Charles said:
On debt I think it may be never (or at least post Parliamentary government) - but certainly a long time agorkrkrk said:
When was the last time the UK defaulted?Charles said:
Except that your interest costs go up because investors will want a default risk premium because you may just unilaterally repudiate your commitments in future.
And the cost of big investments such as the Super Sewer will be on balance sheet do over time will be skimped on
But "default risk" is just a term for the risk premium than investors demand over 10 year Treasuries which are officially viewed as "risk free". It isn't limited to just the risk of default.
That said you can buy CDS (default insurance) on both UK and US sovereign debt and the cost of doing so is definitely not zero. That is even true of triple A rated countries.0 -
Not a chance, a vile stench is rising more liekDavid_Evershed said:malcolmg said:
Take a much stronger wind to blow her over versus MayDavid_Evershed said:
Is Davidson more strong and more stable than May?HYUFD said:
Certainly and Davidson has Sturgeon on the back foot, though I can's see the SNP getting less than 45 myself, they will lose barely any seats in Glasgow and Dundee and the Central Belt, the big swings against them will be in the borders and rural Scotland, Edinburgh and AberdeenQuincel said:
If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.HYUFD said:
If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotlandkle4 said:
Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.TGOHF said:
New Scotland poll ?
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/
NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens
I'm not going to read too much into it.
17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.
I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.
Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.
32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.
I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.
Is the wind of change blowing across Scotland?0 -
Yes, Davidson looks like having the best election night of allAlastairMeeks said:
The Scottish subsample is almost identical to the much-derided Surveymonkey poll. #justsayingHYUFD said:Yougov regional subsamples now up
London
Con 38
Lab 44
LD 13
UKIP 3
South
Con 50
Lab 25
LD 16
UKIP 5
Midlands and Wales
Con 46
Lab 42
LD 4
UKIP 5
North
Con 38
Lab 49
LD 7
UKIP 5
Scotland
Con 30
SNP 40
LD 4
UKIP 0
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf0 -
LOLThreeQuidder said:
Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/8686202506648903680 -
True he was a lot calmer on Preston than Fallon waskle4 said:
In general, he has a calm, polite style. Certainly he has lost his cool on occasion, but when he doesn't lose it, and he has had a good campaign, he has a laid back kind of appeal which makes him seem more reasonable than may be the case.AlsoIndigo said:
Yes, we remember his calm, polite approach on that Sky interview when asked if he was going to be leader in 2020... and his calm, polite approach to handling journalists, and not forgetting his calm, polite approach when about campaigning with SadiqNickPalmer said:Corbyn appeals to people who are disiollusioned with the Government for some reason (there is always a chunk of 30+% who feel that way) and who like his calm, polite style.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/havent-you-anything-ask-jeremy-10157256
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1304140/Angry-Corbyn-confronts-reporter-accusing-cowardice.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3510555/Calm-Jeremy-Labour-leader-Corbyn-nearly-snaps-s-confronted-critics-campaigning-mayoral-hopeful-Sadiq-Khan.html0 -
Corbyn, as he would still do Brexit and do economic damage on top. May with a majority of 50-100 might be more likely to compromise a little with the EUAlastairMeeks said:Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?
The answer isn't obvious.0 -
Most people don't really have a clue as to the exact dynamics of their constituency. It is what wonks like us spend our time working out. The biggest tactical shift of all though will be the electorally useless UKIP votes from 2015 piling up for May though !HYUFD said:
Unless tactical voting yesDavid_Evershed said:
Lib Dems net switching to both Conservative and Labour - means Lib Dems losing seats rather than winning seats.HYUFD said:Yougov has the Tories winning 8% of 2015 Labour voters and Labour winning 8% of 2015 Tory voters. The Tories are winning 23% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Tories. Labour are winning 19% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Labour voters. 56% of 2015 UKIP voters have gone to the Tories and 15% to Labour.
51% of 2016 EU referendum Remain voters are voting Labour, 24% Tory and 15% LD, 64% of referendum Leave voters are voting Tory, 20% Labour and 8% UKIP
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf0 -
Peston this auto spell checker.Yorkcity said:
True he was a lot calmer on Preston than Fallon waskle4 said:
In general, he has a calm, polite style. Certainly he has lost his cool on occasion, but when he doesn't lose it, and he has had a good campaign, he has a laid back kind of appeal which makes him seem more reasonable than may be the case.AlsoIndigo said:
Yes, we remember his calm, polite approach on that Sky interview when asked if he was going to be leader in 2020... and his calm, polite approach to handling journalists, and not forgetting his calm, polite approach when about campaigning with SadiqNickPalmer said:Corbyn appeals to people who are disiollusioned with the Government for some reason (there is always a chunk of 30+% who feel that way) and who like his calm, polite style.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/havent-you-anything-ask-jeremy-10157256
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1304140/Angry-Corbyn-confronts-reporter-accusing-cowardice.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3510555/Calm-Jeremy-Labour-leader-Corbyn-nearly-snaps-s-confronted-critics-campaigning-mayoral-hopeful-Sadiq-Khan.html0 -
Sorry, they are up 1% on 2015 to 25%nunu said:
Labour an asterisk in Scotland now?HYUFD said:Yougov regional subsamples now up
London
Con 38
Lab 44
LD 13
UKIP 3
South
Con 50
Lab 25
LD 16
UKIP 5
Midlands and Wales
Con 46
Lab 42
LD 4
UKIP 5
North
Con 38
Lab 49
LD 7
UKIP 5
Scotland
Con 30
SNP 40
Lab 25
LD 4
UKIP 0
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf0 -
But the Youth vote is more than just places like Sheffield Central, Liverpool Riverside and Manchester Central etc. Those are simply the areas it is most concentrated. I don't doubt that it will be a good turnout for Labour in those seats, i'm just dubious that they will be representative of the Youth vote nation-wide.Pulpstar said:
Oh I know, seats like Sheffield Central really won't be important in the election. That's not really my point though. Due to the demographic profile, and the only seat above 30% that you posted it is the quickest method to determine whether Corbyn has got the youth to come out this time round. Last GE it was ~ 55.7% turnout, and 58% or so Labour. So plenty of scope for (Electorally useless) improvement from Labour here.brokenwheel said:
As I posted last night, Sheffield Central has the largest % of 16-24 of any constituency.Pulpstar said:Quickest way to gauge whether or not the "youth" has turned out (For Corbyn) will be to look at the Sheffield Central turnout, and see how much Paul Blomfeld is up by.
However that does not mean it is representative of anywhere other than Labour inner-city seats.
If Blomfeld gets over 30,000 votes say then I don't think anyone will be able to accuse the young vote of not getting to the polling booths.
0 -
I remember watching his victory speech when elected leader, and he was suddenly a lot more animated in manner than at any point I could recall during the campaign itself it was quite the change when he gets into 'rally the troops with fiery rhetoric' mode rather than 'soothing gentle tone' mode.Yorkcity said:
True he was a lot calmer on Preston than Fallon waskle4 said:
In general, he has a calm, polite style. Certainly he has lost his cool on occasion, but when he doesn't lose it, and he has had a good campaign, he has a laid back kind of appeal which makes him seem more reasonable than may be the case.AlsoIndigo said:
Yes, we remember his calm, polite approach on that Sky interview when asked if he was going to be leader in 2020... and his calm, polite approach to handling journalists, and not forgetting his calm, polite approach when about campaigning with SadiqNickPalmer said:Corbyn appeals to people who are disiollusioned with the Government for some reason (there is always a chunk of 30+% who feel that way) and who like his calm, polite style.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/havent-you-anything-ask-jeremy-10157256
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1304140/Angry-Corbyn-confronts-reporter-accusing-cowardice.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3510555/Calm-Jeremy-Labour-leader-Corbyn-nearly-snaps-s-confronted-critics-campaigning-mayoral-hopeful-Sadiq-Khan.html
It's a sound tactic a lot of the time - remain calm, to the point of infuriating your opponent, and observers might think by default you must be the reasonable one, even when this is not the case.0 -
Sophy announced Kezia as the "Scottish labia" leader and then hastily changed it to Labour. Strange thoughts during a political interview.calum said:0 -
Very decent, in the circumstances.HYUFD said:
Sorry, they are up 1% on 2015 to 25%nunu said:
Labour an asterisk in Scotland now?HYUFD said:Yougov regional subsamples now up
London
Con 38
Lab 44
LD 13
UKIP 3
South
Con 50
Lab 25
LD 16
UKIP 5
Midlands and Wales
Con 46
Lab 42
LD 4
UKIP 5
North
Con 38
Lab 49
LD 7
UKIP 5
Scotland
Con 30
SNP 40
Lab 25
LD 4
UKIP 0
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf0 -
On today's polls the Tories would take Perth and North Perthshire on the SNP to Tory swing, even if Labour voters who have voted SNP before stick with the SNP.JPJ2 said:HYUFD
On Perth and North Perthshire you are missing the point that for a couple of decades natural Labour supporters have already been voting SNP to keep the Tories out.
The Tories will be very unlikely to defeat a 10K SNP majority on a straight SNP to Tory swing (particularly as this is not a significant fishing constituency).
On Aberdeen South (even though you don't seem to realise it, you are really agreeing with my analysis about what will decide the issue) it will indeed be decided by whether ant-SNP is a bigger motivator than ant-Tory.
Aberdeen South is less likely but if the Tories do take it it will be on indyref20 -
Do we have any evidence that the EU is remotely interested in a compromise.HYUFD said:
Corbyn, as he would still do Brexit and do economic damage on top. May with a majority of 50-100 might be more likely to compromise a little with the EUAlastairMeeks said:Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?
The answer isn't obvious.
If we suppose for a moment that when it comes to it, only option on the table is F*ck-off-BrExit, something completely unacceptable that no leader would have chance of selling to the country, and that they are completely uninterested in having us back after all the hassles we have caused. Would you then prefer a government with a moderate majority, or one with a massive majority.0 -
No, they wouldn't. Corporates who raise money in the capital markets are usually MNCs with income and expenses outside the UK. It makes sense to match assets and liabilities and income/expenses. They should take the cost of financing into account bug should not be spectulating on future macro economic movementsoldpolitics said:
I'll keep saying this until I'm blue in the face. Those corporates would be idiots. The money-printing genie is out of the bottle; the UK cannot default in sterling, it can always create more sterling.Charles said:Corporate debt is priced at a premium to sovereign debt but the sovereign debt premium vs T-bonds will go up (so our debt is more expensive) - this is over all UK government debt so in absolute terms even more. Corporates will raise funds in other currencies to minimise the impact.
The risk if this is used outside of a global recession caused by a collapse in credit and demand (and one day it surely will be now the politicians and speculators know where the sweetie jar lives) is therefore not default, it's hyperinflation as people rightly view repayment with printed money as a crypto-default and treat sterling as monopoly money.
The corporates who continued to borrow in sterling would see their debt inflated away relative to their assets. The corporates who borrowed in swiss francs would be crucified.0 -
So she told teh truth , both options are just cheeks of the same arse, ducked nothing and highlighted that there is no good option for Scotland , even if SNP have 59 seats, England rules.kle4 said:
Ducked it of course, what else could she do?GeoffM said:
Doesn't want Tory government which is bad for Scotland, but says Labour has to answer for putting up a leader with a credibility problem (although does phrase it as 'lacks credibility in terms of people's perception of his ability to be PM'), so the only strong voice for Scotland is SNP.0 -
The youth in Sheffield might be turning out for the Green.brokenwheel said:
But the Youth vote is more than just places like Sheffield Central, Liverpool Riverside and Manchester Central etc. Those are simply the areas it is most concentrated. I don't doubt that it will be a good turnout for Labour in those seats, i'm just dubious that they will be representative of the Youth vote nation-wide.Pulpstar said:
Oh I know, seats like Sheffield Central really won't be important in the election. That's not really my point though. Due to the demographic profile, and the only seat above 30% that you posted it is the quickest method to determine whether Corbyn has got the youth to come out this time round. Last GE it was ~ 55.7% turnout, and 58% or so Labour. So plenty of scope for (Electorally useless) improvement from Labour here.brokenwheel said:
As I posted last night, Sheffield Central has the largest % of 16-24 of any constituency.Pulpstar said:Quickest way to gauge whether or not the "youth" has turned out (For Corbyn) will be to look at the Sheffield Central turnout, and see how much Paul Blomfeld is up by.
However that does not mean it is representative of anywhere other than Labour inner-city seats.
If Blomfeld gets over 30,000 votes say then I don't think anyone will be able to accuse the young vote of not getting to the polling booths.0 -
True they should use Emily Thornberry more.Dianne Abbot is very poor even with all that media experience with Andrew Neil on this week .In contrast John McDonnell is good in interviews whatever you think of his views.kle4 said:
Being genuine now, apart from Abbott, I cannot think of more than the occasional poor moment during the Labour campaign. She has had several, there have been one or two other examples, and Corbyn has had a pretty decent go of it, so she is the only one really messing up their message - because even where she is on message she delivers poorly.Floater said:0 -
It wasn't a criticism - she doesn't want either to be PM, nor does she want the PM to have control over Scotland in the first place, so she refused to answer the basic premise of the question.malcolmg said:
So she told teh truth , both options are just cheeks of the same arse, ducked nothing and highlighted that there is no good option for Scotland , even if SNP have 59 seats, England rules.kle4 said:
Ducked it of course, what else could she do?GeoffM said:
Doesn't want Tory government which is bad for Scotland, but says Labour has to answer for putting up a leader with a credibility problem (although does phrase it as 'lacks credibility in terms of people's perception of his ability to be PM'), so the only strong voice for Scotland is SNP.
It may be true both are bad for Scotland, but she could have answered which would be the most bad if she wanted, but what benefit would there be to doing that? No one is going to be surprised and change their vote because she might in theory prefer Corbyn over May or vice-versa and refused to confirm that.0 -
And did McGuinness metamorphose from the commander of the Derry IRA to NI Deputy First Minister through dialogue or by banning his voice and having his words spoken by an actor?CarlottaVance said:
How many people did the IRA murder in 2013 - compared with 1983?ThreeQuidder said:
Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/8686202506648903680 -
Corbyn will get alot this time round. Alot of young people believe in his message, they're just going to get seriously outnumbered by pensioners.rottenborough said:
The youth in Sheffield might be turning out for the Green.brokenwheel said:
But the Youth vote is more than just places like Sheffield Central, Liverpool Riverside and Manchester Central etc. Those are simply the areas it is most concentrated. I don't doubt that it will be a good turnout for Labour in those seats, i'm just dubious that they will be representative of the Youth vote nation-wide.Pulpstar said:
Oh I know, seats like Sheffield Central really won't be important in the election. That's not really my point though. Due to the demographic profile, and the only seat above 30% that you posted it is the quickest method to determine whether Corbyn has got the youth to come out this time round. Last GE it was ~ 55.7% turnout, and 58% or so Labour. So plenty of scope for (Electorally useless) improvement from Labour here.brokenwheel said:
As I posted last night, Sheffield Central has the largest % of 16-24 of any constituency.Pulpstar said:Quickest way to gauge whether or not the "youth" has turned out (For Corbyn) will be to look at the Sheffield Central turnout, and see how much Paul Blomfeld is up by.
However that does not mean it is representative of anywhere other than Labour inner-city seats.
If Blomfeld gets over 30,000 votes say then I don't think anyone will be able to accuse the young vote of not getting to the polling booths.0 -
@carldinnen: Serious question @HackneyAbbott - Did you support the IRA when you were a trainee at the Home Office?0
-
Something to give those hoping for a Scottish labia surge pause for thought.
'Scottish Labour accused of 'giving up' in General Election contests after internal leak
SCOTTISH Labour has been accused of “giving up” in General Election contests after leaked data revealed the number of voters contacted by the party has plummeted by over 80 per cent.
...In total, the number of contacts fell from 71,179 in the equivalent week at the 2015 general election, to 12,155.'
http://tinyurl.com/y7hzoh570 -
If only the old bigots were more like the young:
Election Data @election_data
·ICM have 65% of voters approving of the death penalty for acts of terrorism, including 60% of 18-24 yr olds.0 -
Yes, people tend to overdo the 'it's the old people' criticism of that particular issue, I have little doubt.CarlottaVance said:If only the old bigots were more like the young:
Election Data @election_data
·ICM have 65% of voters approving of the death penalty for acts of terrorism, including 60% of 18-24 yr olds.0 -
Current relations with world sponsor of terror Saudi Arabia are a far more fruitful seam of hypocrisy, and one that Labour would do well to remind people of.Theuniondivvie said:Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.
0 -
Calling Mr T, Scotland has need of your stimulations..Theuniondivvie said:Something to give those hoping for a Scottish labia surge pause for thought.
0 -
Or by losing the military campaign?Bromptonaut said:
And did McGuinness metamorphose from the commander of the Derry IRA to NI Deputy First Minister through dialogue or by banning his voice and having his words spoken by an actor?CarlottaVance said:
How many people did the IRA murder in 2013 - compared with 1983?ThreeQuidder said:
Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/868620250664890368
0 -
I won't although I'm not a PB ToryTheuniondivvie said:Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.
There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.
0 -
Good question. The previous one had figures of Con 43, Lab 34, LD 8, UKIP 4, Green 2.RobD said:Any news on Survation?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#20170 -
If the EU refuses to budge on 100 billion Euros for any form of trade deal or trade agreements then clearly no deal at all will be done. However if they are willing to meet May halfway on payments then some agreements may be possible, if May is also perhaps willing to agree some form of job offer requirement to come to the UK. It will not be soft Brexit and single market as May will end free movement and not pay all the EU demands, however it might not be full, hard Brexit either, even if no full FTA is likely within 2 yearsAlsoIndigo said:
Do we have any evidence that the EU is remotely interested in a compromise.HYUFD said:
Corbyn, as he would still do Brexit and do economic damage on top. May with a majority of 50-100 might be more likely to compromise a little with the EUAlastairMeeks said:Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?
The answer isn't obvious.
If we suppose for a moment that when it comes to it, only option on the table is F*ck-off-BrExit, something completely unacceptable that no leader would have chance of selling to the country, and that they are completely uninterested in having us back after all the hassles we have caused. Would you then prefer a government with a moderate majority, or one with a massive majority.0 -
I agree absolutely.Luckyguy1983 said:
Current relations with world sponsor of terror Saudi Arabia are a far more fruitful seam of hypocrisy, and one that Labour would do well to remind people of.Theuniondivvie said:Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.
0 -
Oh did we win then? I must have missed the victory celebrations.CarlottaVance said:
Or by losing the military campaign?Bromptonaut said:
And did McGuinness metamorphose from the commander of the Derry IRA to NI Deputy First Minister through dialogue or by banning his voice and having his words spoken by an actor?CarlottaVance said:
How many people did the IRA murder in 2013 - compared with 1983?ThreeQuidder said:
Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/8686202506648903680 -
Please reassure me that by writing "None of them" diagonally across all the candidates' names I have safely spoiled my ballot!kle4 said:
I've seen votes accepted where there was a mark in the Labour box, but the voter had crossed out the candidates name and written 'Aneurin Bevan'.David_Evershed said:
Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.Pulpstar said:
Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.kle4 said:
My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.Pulpstar said:
Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.kle4 said:But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.
0 -
How do you move from one to the other except through dialogue?isam said:
I won't although I'm not a PB ToryTheuniondivvie said:Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.
There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.0 -
Yes!Chris said:
Please reassure me that by writing "None of them" diagonally across all the candidates' names I have safely spoiled my ballot!kle4 said:
I've seen votes accepted where there was a mark in the Labour box, but the voter had crossed out the candidates name and written 'Aneurin Bevan'.David_Evershed said:
Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.Pulpstar said:
Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.kle4 said:
My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.Pulpstar said:
Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.kle4 said:But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.
0 -
Is Ireland united? I must have missed the lowering of the Union flag.Bromptonaut said:
Oh did we win then? I must have missed the victory celebrations.CarlottaVance said:
Or by losing the military campaign?Bromptonaut said:
And did McGuinness metamorphose from the commander of the Derry IRA to NI Deputy First Minister through dialogue or by banning his voice and having his words spoken by an actor?CarlottaVance said:
How many people did the IRA murder in 2013 - compared with 1983?ThreeQuidder said:
Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/8686202506648903680 -
LDs would also probably have 3 seats there.AlastairMeeks said:For what it's worth, Electoral Calculus translate those Surveymonkey poll ratings into:
SNP 41
Con 15
Lab 3
I expect the SNP total would be closer to 41 than 24 on a 39% poll share.0 -
Corbyn wasn't the one involved in the secret dialogue between both sides that led to peace, which needed to involve both sides realising the situation could not be won as they had been aiming for.Bromptonaut said:
How do you move from one to the other except through dialogue?isam said:
I won't although I'm not a PB ToryTheuniondivvie said:Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.
There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.0 -
Bromptonaut said:
How do you move from one to the other except through dialogue?isam said:
I won't although I'm not a PB ToryTheuniondivvie said:Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.
There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.
Can you let me know a) what compromises you think Corbyn should make to ISIS and b) how he practically ought to start dialogue? Thanks.0 -
Most Watched
1 'I don't have same hair, I don't have same views'0 -
The bigger question is what the Hell were those 71,179 saying in 2015?Theuniondivvie said:Something to give those hoping for a Scottish labia surge pause for thought.
'Scottish Labour accused of 'giving up' in General Election contests after internal leak
SCOTTISH Labour has been accused of “giving up” in General Election contests after leaked data revealed the number of voters contacted by the party has plummeted by over 80 per cent.
...In total, the number of contacts fell from 71,179 in the equivalent week at the 2015 general election, to 12,155.'
http://tinyurl.com/y7hzoh57
At least now they are admitting they have nothing to say.0 -
"This is not a day for soundbites"...Bromptonaut said:
Oh did we win then? I must have missed the victory celebrations.CarlottaVance said:
Or by losing the military campaign?Bromptonaut said:
And did McGuinness metamorphose from the commander of the Derry IRA to NI Deputy First Minister through dialogue or by banning his voice and having his words spoken by an actor?CarlottaVance said:
How many people did the IRA murder in 2013 - compared with 1983?ThreeQuidder said:
Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/8686202506648903680 -
I wouldn't risk doing it that way. The best way to spoil your ballot paper is by putting a cross in the box for every candidate. If you leave it blank there's always a risk someone at the count will sneakily put a mark in the box for one of the candidates while everyone is distracted by something else.Chris said:
Please reassure me that by writing "None of them" diagonally across all the candidates' names I have safely spoiled my ballot!kle4 said:
I've seen votes accepted where there was a mark in the Labour box, but the voter had crossed out the candidates name and written 'Aneurin Bevan'.David_Evershed said:
Writing Farron out within the box will be regarded as a spolit vote since it is not a vote in favour of anyone.Pulpstar said:
Write "Farron out" in the Lib Dem box. Keep it entirely within the box.kle4 said:
My heart is like my gut - unreliable and vacillating.Pulpstar said:
Well seeing as the seat is very very safe Tory, go with your "heart"; the calculation would be different if you were in a marginal.kle4 said:But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.
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But British Gas was very profitable as a nationalised industry - as was Electricity and the Post Office.DavidL said:If the utility companies were nationalised I think you could pretty much guarantee that within a very few years they would be making a loss rather than a profit with their services being subsidised out of the public purse which would still be straining to find the service charge of those bonds. It is a ridiculous idea.
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You beat them or they beat you.Bromptonaut said:
How do you move from one to the other except through dialogue?isam said:
I won't although I'm not a PB ToryTheuniondivvie said:Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.
There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.
We know which option Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott wanted.0 -
Perhaps it was a score draw after extra time.CarlottaVance said:
Is Ireland united? I must have missed the lowering of the Union flag.Bromptonaut said:
Oh did we win then? I must have missed the victory celebrations.CarlottaVance said:
Or by losing the military campaign?Bromptonaut said:
And did McGuinness metamorphose from the commander of the Derry IRA to NI Deputy First Minister through dialogue or by banning his voice and having his words spoken by an actor?CarlottaVance said:
How many people did the IRA murder in 2013 - compared with 1983?ThreeQuidder said:
Given that's a Boris Bus (built in NI) in the background, which makes the photo 2013 or so, then that is a picture of the Mayor of London, Transport Secretary and NI Deputy First Minister.Theuniondivvie said:I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/8686202506648903680 -
As John Maynard Keynes famously said "When my hair changes, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"Pulpstar said:Most Watched
1 'I don't have same hair, I don't have same views'0 -
Who's talking about ISIS?Mortimer said:Bromptonaut said:
How do you move from one to the other except through dialogue?isam said:
I won't although I'm not a PB ToryTheuniondivvie said:Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.
There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.
Can you let me know a) what compromises you think Corbyn should make to ISIS and b) how he practically ought to start dialogue? Thanks.0 -
Dialogue doesn't have to be cheerleadingBromptonaut said:
How do you move from one to the other except through dialogue?isam said:
I won't although I'm not a PB ToryTheuniondivvie said:Marvellous to see various PB Tories accept the power of redemption as embodied in late period Martin McGuinness. I'm sure they'll join with me in deploring the various goons on here hoping that he'd burn in hell after his recent shuffling off the stage.
There is a difference though between actively supporting terrorists while they're killing people, and meeting them after a peace deal has been made.0 -
Not what SLAB wanted to hear !MarqueeMark said:
The bigger question is what the Hell were those 71,179 saying in 2015?Theuniondivvie said:Something to give those hoping for a Scottish labia surge pause for thought.
'Scottish Labour accused of 'giving up' in General Election contests after internal leak
SCOTTISH Labour has been accused of “giving up” in General Election contests after leaked data revealed the number of voters contacted by the party has plummeted by over 80 per cent.
...In total, the number of contacts fell from 71,179 in the equivalent week at the 2015 general election, to 12,155.'
http://tinyurl.com/y7hzoh57
At least now they are admitting they have nothing to say.0 -
Just watching Ruth Davidson being quizzed by Gordon Brewer. If she is the answer to the Tory campaign problems then it must be a very silly question.
This lady has been shown as comprehensively incoherent. Compared to this interview Theresa May was a model of clarity with Andrew Neil.0 -
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/868778678485995521AndyJS said:
Good question. The previous one had figures of Con 43, Lab 34, LD 8, UKIP 4, Green 2.RobD said:Any news on Survation?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#20170 -
Davidson lying profusely on Daily Politics. Said "I do not accepot " that SNP won last election and that there is "NO" support for independce. What a pompous bag of wind. Nothing but lying and evasion.0
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Do we have any evidence that the EU is remotely interested in a compromise.
If we suppose for a moment that when it comes to it, only option on the table is F*ck-off-BrExit, something completely unacceptable that no leader would have chance of selling to the country, and that they are completely uninterested in having us back after all the hassles we have caused. Would you then prefer a government with a moderate majority, or one with a massive majority.
The whole notion of 'I need an enormous majority to strengthen my hand for Brexit' was disingenuous to say the least. 'I need a big majority to look like the mega-star I am and to repeal The Countryside Act' would have been more truthful!
I suspect that most centre-lefties would be more than happy with a Tory majority of not much different to 2015. Better than anything that puts Corbyn anywhere near the levers of government and the Conservatives short of a number with which they can do lasting damage!0
