politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The size of her majority will determine the sort of PM Theresa

@ShippersUnbound: Corbyn: "I have met former prisoners who told me they are not in the IRA". That's convicted bombers.

We can see in Alistairs chart why May changed her mind - a sudden sharp rise in the weeks leading up to the announcement. May sensed blood in the water. And has been made to look foolish. While still going to win, though, so it's a bit odd.

The hair thing isn't new...

http://www.stylist.co.uk/beauty/diane-abbott-on-making-a-political-statement-or-not-with-her-hair-shadow-secretary-for-state-labour

But I think my favourite style will always be the short Afro and I’m sure that will be my final hairstyle too

So when she dies she'll be back being an enemy of the British state...

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/868736881361645568

The raw scatter chart of poll leads looks way scarier for Conservatives.

And does anyone member of the public actually remember a single thing from the Tory manifesto other than Winter Fuel and Dementia Tax? I doubt it.

What an own goal.

Interesting that if you take out the hump when the snap election was initially called, you aren't that far off a gradually downward trending straight line.

Edit/ or possibly I am assuming the x-axis is days when it isn't? Nevertheless the peak after 30 thru 35 is what stands out, rather than the post-maninfesto drop.

With an uptick at the end. Where do we go next? That is the question.

The x-axis is just number of samples, it isn't correctly spaced for time - as I said it is quick and dirty.

The starting point is when May called the election. The trends and the manifesto effect is even clearer on a 10 poll lag

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/868738511708577792

If you start a month before the election was called then that changes the graph somewhat.

I've gone back to the start of the year

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/868755436861874176

Once again this is just by number of polls, it's not correctly time spaced.

Looks pretty bad, but I guess us down to labour rising more than anything else. Still shocks me every time I say it. Modest rise, seemed likely, 10 point rise? Very impressive.

Could be normality beginning to reassert itself after the referendum?

alex. said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/868751331623936000

"We've all moved on in 34 years". Which views that Jeremy Corbyn held 34 years ago has he moved on?

Brexit. Officially.

But peopke should clarify where they have changed, and nothing wrong with being put on the spot to confirm that.

Corbyn for one does get very politiciany on Ireland - much more weasel words and spin than usual.

If Corbyn is serious he will drop Abbott and McDonnell. It's one thing having your own baggage, but you don't need to carry other people's.

Charles said:

Except that your interest costs go up because investors will want a default risk premium because you may just unilaterally repudiate your commitments in future.

And the cost of big investments such as the Super Sewer will be on balance sheet do over time will be skimped on

When was the last time the UK defaulted?

FF43 said:

If Corbyn is serious he will drop Abbott and McDonnell. It's one thing having your own baggage, but you don't need to carry other people's.

I think it might just be a little too late in the day for that...

@PickardJE: Several real-world friends have asked me this weekend about the Corbyn/IRA issue. A common refrain: why didn't we know about this before?

CarlottaVance said:

Iain Dale @IainDale
Jeremy Corbyn just confirmed on @Peston that Diane Abbott would definitely be Home Secretary in a Labour government.

Well what else could he say?

All labour MPs, that's what you are campaigning for.diane Abbott as Home Secretary.

I see Labour's campaign and the Tories should be CRUSHING them on all levels. And yet that fucking dreadful Tory manifesto has probably completely changed what the outcome should have been.

Can't wait to find out who had what input in that manifesto.

Scott_P said:

@PickardJE: Several real-world friends have asked me this weekend about the Corbyn/IRA issue. A common refrain: why didn't we know about this before?

Heads in a bucket?

In all seriousness, I know as political wonks we'd know it, but the Tories have been promising to raise this stuff for so long I'm not clear on if they have or not, and I don't know how to judge how shocking it is peopke don't know.

kle4 said:

Alistair said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/868736881361645568

The raw scatter chart of poll leads looks way scarier for Conservatives.

And does anyone member of the public actually remember a single thing from the Tory manifesto other than Winter Fuel and Dementia Tax? I doubt it.

What an own goal.

Interesting that if you take out the hump when the snap election was initially called, you aren't that far off a gradually downward trending straight line.

Edit/ or possibly I am assuming the x-axis is days when it isn't? Nevertheless the peak after 30 thru 35 is what stands out, rather than the post-maninfesto drop.

With an uptick at the end. Where do we go next? That is the question.

The x-axis is just number of samples, it isn't correctly spaced for time - as I said it is quick and dirty.

The starting point is when May called the election. The trends and the manifesto effect is even clearer on a 10 poll lag

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/868738511708577792

If you start a month before the election was called then that changes the graph somewhat.

I've gone back to the start of the year

https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/868755436861874176

Once again this is just by number of polls, it's not correctly time spaced.

Looks pretty bad, but I guess us down to labour rising more than anything else. Still shocks me every time I say it. Modest rise, seemed likely, 10 point rise? Very impressive.

Partly down to the LibDems vacating the field of battle though....

https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/868757850645975040

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:

DavidL said:

TGOHF said:

New Scotland poll ?

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/

NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens

Surveymonkey? Is this a proper weighted poll? It looks like it but I am not sure. Maybe just too good to be true from my perspective.

Not sure how they get 39%:29%:25% translating to only 24 seats...

Seems very unlikely doesn't it? But it would be possible if there was strong and efficient tactical voting by Unionists across different parts of the country.

One success that the SNP has had which has largely gone unremarked is the disengagement of the Scottish election from the UK one. The issue up here is independence and almost nothing else. Corbyn and May both seem peripheral. It is all about Nicola, Ruth and Kezia (who is having a much better campaign than I expected).

Slightly unfair.
Ruth & her buds have managed to insert devolved policy making into a Westminster election at every turn, not to forget the heartbreaking work of staggering genius that is preserving winter fuel payments for Scotch crumblies.

I don't see how I could be being unfair in giving the SNP a compliment. Scottish politics is disengaging from rUK, partly for the reasons you have said. When the majority of the decisions that people actually care about are made at Holyrood it is inevitable that these issues will be debated in the campaign even if MPs have increasingly little say on the matters being argued about. As a Unionist I find it a concern but an inevitable consequence of a high level of devolution.

Indyref2 has of course exacerbated the trend this time around, possibly not to the advantage of the SNP in the way that Nicola hoped.

I meant unfair on the monotony or otherwise of the ishoos in Scotland (I promise I am entirely weaned off seeking compliments for the SNP in general let alone in a place like this). In fact apart from bellowing 'No To A Second Referendum' and 'Nope, not even gonna talk about the possibility', there's been no debate on independence. Though it's difficult when most of the media is uninterested, I think its a failure by the SNP not keep the argument about immigration, trade, energy, foreign & industrial policy etc, all seen through the prism of Brexit of course. We're reduced to the position of the Scottish 'moment' being about how much the SNP government pays nurses (more than the Tory government does), though I note the Yoonetariat has moved pretty swiftly on from portraying the food bank nurse as a heroine when some awkward fact arose.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

New Scotland poll ?

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/

NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens

It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.

I'm not going to read too much into it.

17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.

I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.

Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.

Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.

32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.

If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotland

If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.

I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex. said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Rudd v Abbott on Marr

You mean Labour have let Abbott out again? Are they getting a bit worried that they might actually win?

Marr billing it as who is to be trusted on UK security.

Just back from Canada with bad dose of jet lag.

Went with BA premium class - very poor food and service levels reluctant - arrived home thursday pm and just so sorry for all those flying BA this weekend.

BA are in a mess

IAG, BA's owner, made record profits in the first-quarter of this year, however chief executive Willie Walsh has to be careful that his cost-cutting on food, service (and clearly computers) does not compromise quality too much. It has also launched a new low-cost long haul airline, Level
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39815659

BA's offer has declined markedly over recent years. They are still better than the American carriers, but are mid-table, not Champions League.

HYUFD,

Tories have peaked too early in Scotland. The battle for Labour voters in seats where the Tories are serious challengers to the SNP will compare this persuaders:

Vote Tory to stop a second independence referendum (would it??)
versus
Vote SNP to stop a Tory Government (do you want as a Labour supporter to have given the Tories another seat, possibly critical to their majority??)

I believe enough people will be persuaded by the second argument as Corbyn cannot any longer be totally written off.

For me the main winners of this argument will be evidenced by whether the Tories or the SNP win the SNP held seats of Aberdeen South and Perth and North Perthshire (rather than the Border seats, for example, where Tories can probably win without too much anti-SNP tactical voting)..

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: In 1985 Diane Abbott said of her time at the Home Office: "I was just one token black person in a fundamentally racist institution."

Ability will out, Diane.

Diane Abbott is herself fundamentally racist. She has said " Whites love to play divide and rule " but sent her son to a largely white private school so he'd avoid the black thugs that plague her local state schools.

JPJ2 said:

HYUFD,

Tories have peaked too early in Scotland. The battle for Labour voters in seats where the Tories are serious challengers to the SNP will compare this persuaders:

Vote Tory to stop a second independence referendum (would it??)
versus
Vote SNP to stop a Tory Government (do you want as a Labour supporter to have given the Tories another seat, possibly critical to their majority??)

I believe enough people will be persuaded by the second argument as Corbyn cannot any longer be totally written off.

For me the main winners of this argument will be evidenced by whether the Tories or the SNP win the SNP held seats of Aberdeen South and Perth and North Perthshire (rather than the Border seats, for example, where Tories can probably win without too much anti-SNP tactical voting)..

No, the Tories are now on a solid 25-30% and most of the seats they are targeting are in relatively posh areas of Scotland ie the Borders, Aberdeenshire, Edinburgh, Perth, Moray etc where there are fewer Labour voters and those that are more likely to vote tactically Tory to stop the SNP. Labour voters who prefer the SNP to the Tories are concentrated in Glasgow and the Central Belt where the Tories have no chance under FPTP anyway and the SNP will hold on

At the last election for instance Labour got just 8% in Perth and North Perthshire compared to 24% Scotland wide
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perth_and_North_Perthshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

In Moray Labour got 9%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moray_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Labour were actually in second in Aberdeen South and Edinburgh South but again those voters are more anti independence than anti Tory, Edinburgh voted 61% No in 2014 compared to 55% across Scotland as a whole, Aberdeen 59% No

kle4 said:

I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.

However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?

That would probably have been enough in my case for me to go LD. But in ECA the LD candidate is truly dreadful. There are three candidates and the Tory is the only one I could possibly vote for.

ThomasNashe said:

nunu said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/868751331623936000

Christ almighty!!! I don't have much confidence in May/ Rudd, but I simply don't understand how anyone can countenance her as Home Secretary. For this reason, though I will probably need the requisite nose-peg and surgical gloves, at the age of 53 I will be voting Tory on June 8 for the first (and I hope only) time in my life.

Excellent! Which constituency may I ask?

Ealing Central and Acton

ah...next door to me....(Ealing North).

Abbott blames her Afro hairstyle for giving her pro IRA views during The Troubles.

Theuniondivvie said:

I'm guessing Marty was definitely, definitely NOT a terrorist at this point.

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/868620250664890368

Probably less of a terrorist than when he was ordering civilian murder

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

New Scotland poll ?

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/

NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens

It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.

I'm not going to read too much into it.

17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.

I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.

Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.

Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.

32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.

If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotland

LOL, you in fantasy land as always

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

alex. said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Rudd v Abbott on Marr

You mean Labour have let Abbott out again? Are they getting a bit worried that they might actually win?

Marr billing it as who is to be trusted on UK security.

Just back from Canada with bad dose of jet lag.

Went with BA premium class - very poor food and service levels reluctant - arrived home thursday pm and just so sorry for all those flying BA this weekend.

BA are in a mess

IAG, BA's owner, made record profits in the first-quarter of this year, however chief executive Willie Walsh has to be careful that his cost-cutting on food, service (and clearly computers) does not compromise quality too much. It has also launched a new low-cost long haul airline, Level
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39815659

BA's offer has declined markedly over recent years. They are still better than the American carriers, but are mid-table, not Champions League.

Indeed, Walsh clearly wants BA to be a lower cost middle rank player than a high quality but more costly and expensive premium band

David_Evershed said:

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

To justify her pro IRA views over the past 34 years Diane Abbott says her hair has changed too.

Actually I think you'll find Diane and Jezz didn't support the IRA... They supported Sinn Fein.

No. They directly supported IRA muderers and said they wanted the IRA to win against the British state.

Assume you supported the British state murdering people as well.

David_Evershed said:

Abbott blames her Afro hairstyle for giving her pro IRA views during The Troubles.

And it will always be her favourite hairstyle and the one she will probably be buried with

http://www.stylist.co.uk/beauty/diane-abbott-on-making-a-political-statement-or-not-with-her-hair-shadow-secretary-for-state-labour

ThomasNashe said:

nunu said:

ThomasNashe said:

nunu said:

ThomasNashe said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/868751331623936000

Christ almighty!!! I don't have much confidence in May/ Rudd, but I simply don't understand how anyone can countenance her as Home Secretary. For this reason, though I will probably need the requisite nose-peg and surgical gloves, at the age of 53 I will be voting Tory on June 8 for the first (and I hope only) time in my life.

Excellent! Which constituency may I ask?

Ealing Central and Acton

ah...next door to me....(Ealing North).

Don't think even Corbyn and Abbott could contrive to lose that one!

No it's safe as houses for Steve Pound. But atleast your vote will matter since that is a tight marginal. Still voting Tory tho in hopes Labour vote share goes below 30%, how dare they put this cabinet before us! Seriously, what are they thinking?

Sean_F said:

I think the government has benefitted from its competent response to Manchester bombing. Without it, I think we'd have seen poll leads of 0-10%, rather than 6-14%.

I think that's right, and people over-reacted to the first YouGov. Equally, there is an element of chicken-counting going on as Tories breathe a sigh of relief. The current clutch of polls were all taken after several days of Mrs May being Prime Ministerial and nobody else getting a look-in. That's not a complaint - it had to be like that, but it's a fact. The first YouGov made us think that had almost completely misfired for some reason, with only a modest rallying from last weekend. In reality, it's steadied the Tory ship quite signficantly.

But. First, we won't see another 11 days without rival argument, and the effect will wear off to some extent. Second, the polls can be separated into the two that weight to 2015 turnout (ICM and ComRes, I believe) and the others. The former show leads of 14 and 11, the latter leads of 6 and 8.

I think ICM is fighting the last war and turnout this time will have a different pattern, but that might of course be wrong. It's possible that the press and Facebook anti-Corbyn blitz will widen the lead, and it's possible that it will prove as ineffective as trials of it up to now have been. In short, we're now at Advantage Con, but it's too soon to be sure.

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.

However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?

I think you're right to be concerned, this election is ALOT more serious than 2015. I was intensely relaxed about the prospect of an Ed Miliband government - not Corbyn.

I think we're in more 'time for a change' territory this time than in 2015. However Corbyn's weaknesses should see the Tories through. The irony is that a decent showing from Corbyn would presumably keep him safe from replacement and the best chance of a leftist government in decades (under someone else) would be lost.

malcolmg said:

GIN1138 said:

FF43 said:

If Corbyn is serious he will drop Abbott and McDonnell. It's one thing having your own baggage, but you don't need to carry other people's.

I think it might just be a little too late in the day for that...

Morning GIN

Morning Malc.

What do you make of reports Re, SNP losing half their seats?

FrankBooth said:

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.

However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?

I think you're right to be concerned, this election is ALOT more serious than 2015. I was intensely relaxed about the prospect of an Ed Miliband government - not Corbyn.

I think we're in more 'time for a change' territory this time than in 2015. However Corbyn's weaknesses should see the Tories through. The irony is that a decent showing from Corbyn would presumably keep him safe from replacement and the best chance of a leftist government in decades (under someone else) would be lost.

Yep. I'm not intrinsically opposed to things like renationalisation and the like, and Ed M would probably have been like most PMs - a bit crappy, with some good bits - but Corbyn?

The time for a change thing does seem to be more potent now though. I thought it would get Ed M over the line, but was proven very wrong.

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.

However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?

I think you're right to be concerned, this election is ALOT more serious than 2015. I was intensely relaxed about the prospect of an Ed Miliband government - not Corbyn.

Which constituency are you in, Mr Kle? No point at all in just boosting the total number of Labour votes, unless in your constituency they are gong to boot the sitting Tory out. The received wisdom on PB is that Labour are not going to make any gains at all.

GIN1138 said:

malcolmg said:

GIN1138 said:

FF43 said:

If Corbyn is serious he will drop Abbott and McDonnell. It's one thing having your own baggage, but you don't need to carry other people's.

I think it might just be a little too late in the day for that...

Morning GIN

Morning Malc.

What do you make of reports Re, SNP losing half their seats?

The Sun on Sunday claim to have based this projection by putting vote Shares of SNP 39, Con 29, Lab 25 into some online calculator. I can't find any online GE calculator that turns these shares into SNP only getting 24 seats. Which makes one wonder, given that the projected seats are suspiciously proportional to projected votes, that they haven't accidentally plugged them into some online proportional votes calculator - perhaps one used for Holyrood or the Local elections?

Yougov regional subsamples now up

London
Con 38
Lab 44
LD 13
UKIP 3

South
Con 50
Lab 25
LD 16
UKIP 5

Midlands and Wales
Con 46
Lab 42
LD 4
UKIP 5

North
Con 38
Lab 49
LD 7
UKIP 5

Scotland
Con 30
SNP 40
LD 4
UKIP 0

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf

HYUFD said:

Yougov regional subsamples now up

London
Con 38
Lab 44
LD 13
UKIP 3

South
Con 50
Lab 25
LD 16
UKIP 5

Midlands and Wales
Con 46
Lab 42
LD 4
UKIP 5

North
Con 38
Lab 49
LD 7
UKIP 5

Scotland
Con 30
SNP 40
LD 4
UKIP 0

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf

Labour an asterisk in Scotland now?

I wouldn't rule out Lab Gain Croydon Central personally.

Yougov has the Tories winning 8% of 2015 Labour voters and Labour winning 8% of 2015 Tory voters. The Tories are winning 23% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Tories. Labour are winning 19% of 2015 LDs and the LDs winning 6% of 2015 Labour voters. 56% of 2015 UKIP voters have gone to the Tories and 15% to Labour.

51% of 2016 EU referendum Remain voters are voting Labour, 24% Tory and 15% LD, 64% of referendum Leave voters are voting Tory, 20% Labour and 8% UKIP
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

Yougov regional subsamples now up

London
Con 38
Lab 44
LD 13
UKIP 3

South
Con 50
Lab 25
LD 16
UKIP 5

Midlands and Wales
Con 46
Lab 42
LD 4
UKIP 5

North
Con 38
Lab 49
LD 7
UKIP 5

Scotland
Con 30
SNP 40
LD 4
UKIP 0

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l2akbktir9/SundayTimesResults_170526_VI_W.pdf

The Scottish subsample is almost identical to the much-derided Surveymonkey poll. #justsaying

I don't think it was necessarily the poll that was derided, was it? It was the newspaper's interpretation of what that meant for seats won and lost.

PClipp said:

Pulpstar said:

kle4 said:

I'm still going back and forth and voting Tory for the first time. I don't want to vote negatively, but my deep concern over corbynite labour doing well means I probably should vote Tory, and I appreciated them taking on their own vote to be realistic. But may is not great,and the campaign has been crap.

However similar applies to the LDs. Bad campaign, failure to take on Corbyn or may, but manifesto wasn't terrible in places. I do know the candidate vaguely too, good, hard working local. But do they deserve my vote?

I think you're right to be concerned, this election is ALOT more serious than 2015. I was intensely relaxed about the prospect of an Ed Miliband government - not Corbyn.

Which constituency are you in, Mr Kle? No point at all in just boosting the total number of Labour votes, unless in your constituency they are gong to boot the sitting Tory out. The received wisdom on PB is that Labour are not going to make any gains at all.

Oh I'm not voting Labour under Corbyn even if I'd consider it at other times. But it is a very safe seat, South West Wiltshire - over 50% Tory, UKIP second last time but not standing this time, LDs pushed to fourth last time.

Will probably be a bad result on June 8th - local areas within the constituency which are usually solidly LD went Tory at the locals despite what I know to be no effort from the Tories in certain parts.

It comes down more to the principle. The LD manifesto was the best presented even though I disagree with some big policies in it, but overall the campaign has not encouraged me to give them my vote at all. The Tory offer being, to my mind, more willing to tell some hard truths encouraged me, but May and co have done a pretty poor job of appearing competent. So given the outcome in my seat is a foregone conclusion, it's just about adding, ina minute way, to the vote share total nationally.

There is an Indy too.

AlastairMeeks said:

Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?

The answer isn't obvious.

If the latter is happening, then despite whatever intentions they might have I don't see that a Corbyn government could prevent it occuring in any case.

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

I wouldn't rule out Lab Gain Croydon Central personally.

What about Gower?

I think Byron will be fine personally. I know others have taken a different view - can't see Corbyn appealing there.

AlastairMeeks said:

Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?

The answer isn't obvious.

Neither will occur so we'll never know.

David_Evershed said:

HYUFD said:

Quincel said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

New Scotland poll ?

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/

NAT SINKING FEELING Shock poll shows SNP at three-year low with 32 MPs ‘at risk’ as General Election race tightens

It's part of the Survey Monkey poll.

I'm not going to read too much into it.

17 Scottish Tory MPs, 12 SLab MPs, SNP down to 24 MPs.

I'm filing that in the Angus Reid folder.

Me, I'm not greedy, I'd be happy if the snp reduced to the 40s, very happy if it was mid 40s, and if they dipped into the thirties? Wonderful times.

Would help Corbyn get close to 200 seats or above though.

32 seats at risk though, I cannot credit that.

If 32 SNP seats are at risk, May could fail to make a net gain of more than 10 Labour seats in England and Wales and still have a majority comfortably over 50 thanks to Scotland

If 32 SNP seats are at risk then my seriously dodgy 10/1 on them missing out on a seat majority might come off.

I think that might be wishful thinking. Still, a man can dream.

Certainly and Davidson has Sturgeon on the back foot, though I can's see the SNP getting less than 45 myself, they will lose barely any seats in Glasgow and Dundee and the Central Belt, the big swings against them will be in the borders and rural Scotland, Edinburgh and Aberdeen

Is Davidson more strong and more stable than May?

Take a much stronger wind to blow her over versus May

GIN1138 said:

malcolmg said:

GIN1138 said:

FF43 said:

If Corbyn is serious he will drop Abbott and McDonnell. It's one thing having your own baggage, but you don't need to carry other people's.

I think it might just be a little too late in the day for that...

Morning GIN

Morning Malc.

What do you make of reports Re, SNP losing half their seats?

GIN, Uttter Tory bollox fantasy land

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?

The answer isn't obvious.

If the latter is happening, then despite whatever intentions they might have I don't see that a Corbyn government could prevent it occuring in any case.

That's true. Brexit and Corbyn would be a both/and of badness, not an either/or. However I challenge people who think a Corbyn premiership is unimaginable. The consequences of Brexit are probably worse because Corbyn could change or be changed. The consequences of Brexit are largely baked in. If you don't think there are bad consequences to Brexit, there is no reason to fear Corbyn either. The impulses to both are similar.

AlastairMeeks said:

Which is more damaging to the country - five years of Jeremy Corbyn or decades of car crash Brexit?

The answer isn't obvious.

I'm confused that you seem to think Corbyn wouldn't lead to a car crash Brexit. Have you seen the Shadow Cabinet?

MarqueeMark said:

Who are those 8% of 2015 Tory voters going Labour???

The idea that 8% who voted for Cameron over Miliband could conceivably consider Corbyn seriously boggles the mind.