TheScreamingEagles said:

Perhaps that YouGov wasn't an outlier

https://twitter.com/Patrick_E_Scott/status/868559397005520896

Chris said:

So two polls showing Corbyn beating Blair's percentage in 2005 and Cameron's in 2010?

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

Omnium said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarkHopkins said:

Omnium said:

I have mixed feelings about these attacks on Corbyn's IRA support.

They're mixed foor under Corbyn. That doesn't change at all. If you're ok now you'll probably be less ok under Corbyn, and if you're rich now you'll be living elsewhere.

"The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn."

No. If you're poor now, you'll be even worse off under Corbyn.

Corbyn is offering a fantasy that will become a nightmare. Anyone who has looked at these kind of policies throughout the world knows how they end up.

Delete "Corbyn" throughout, replace with "Brexit". Still works.

Still didn't stop many of the poor voting for Brexit.

That may be true - Brexit is a one-off thing though. I know the raveling and unraveling might go on for many years, but the effect is basically a cliff-edge - scaling, or leaping off as you choose.

Corbynism is (potentially) a spiraling down into the abyss. Oddly I imagine that you're going to agree

Brexit is worse, definitely. Corbyn can change or be got rid of. Brexit will drag on forever.

You still don't get it. And you never will. For me and many people, Brexit = Independence.

You're saying "Independence will drag on forever, once we're free, we're free"

For a lot of us, maybe 52% or more, that is good thing.

That's because you (and your mythical many people) are deranged. Britain was independent last year and probably had more practical influence over its future than it will in a couple of years' time.

Control is nothing without power. In future, Britain will be a country that will have things done to it rather than participate in the doing.

So "independent" we can't leave this economic bloc without literally destroying the nation? As you continuously insist?

That's like telling a slave he's entirely free to go, but if he tries to leave we can't promise he won't be electrified by the invisible, lethal, Electro-Slave energy-dome we have erected over the cotton plantation, just to, you know, keep out annoying hawkers of patterned kerchiefs.

bigjohnowls said:

Leaders QT is only chance for Lab to close.

Jezza sub 40% is disaster he needs to go.

Over 40 looking very unlikely

isam said:

My theory on the uselessness of polling seems to hold true if you look at the EU referendum polling

If you take a look at the polling after the murder of Jo Cox, almost every one shows a swing from Leave to Remain

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016

I say this was a combination of political obsessives

(a) Genuinely changing their minds as a result of deep thought/instinct following the murder
(b) Trying to be smart by saying they were going to vote the way that they thought was more likely to win

As it happens, the murder seemed to have no effect on the politically unengaged majority who don't answer opinion polls. Lots of people are uninterested in current affairs, don't watch news on the tv or read the papers. Facebook, twitter and instagram are only political if you choose them to be, and most don't.

Opinion polls only reflect the opinions of the politically engaged. Someone in the PB good books should write a thread about it

Sunil_Prasannan said:

surbiton said:

Alistair said:

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.

It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?

We are a lucky country.

Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.

I'm with you, bruv.

I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.

There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.

This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.

We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.

At the same population density as the area of Edinburgh I live in (my house, as does every house on the street, has it's own garden) would require 23 square kilometers of space for those 300,000 people.

Or 0.009% of the land area of the UK.

Why does everyone need a garden ? Unless you like weeds.

My mum has won Redridge in Bloom five times over the last 12 years.

NeilVW said:

Postal votes should start being opened soon, I think? I wonder if we'll get a report from Labour Uncut on the clues gleaned surreptitiously from these opening sessions, as we did in 2015.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/

Sean_F said:

AnneJGP said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/868563908302340096

Tories NOT down?
I don't believe it.

So if the Labour vote is increasing but the Conservative vote is not diminishing, where does that leave swing-back?

Or are we seeing swing-back going against a government this time? I thought swing-back was in the final stages of the campaign?

The electorate is very polarised. 43-46% is a very solid Conservative result. But 34-38% shows Labour has picked up every left wing voter, bar SNP and Plaid supporters.

Jason said:

peter_from_putney said:

Jason said:

Some sighs of relief coming from CCHQ round about now, I would suggest. It hasn't got any worse for the Tories, and maybe the start of a slow upward tick until polling day.

With Corbyn tied up trying to vainly defend the indefensible, May has to seize the initiative sharpish for the whole of next week. Easier said than done, but the Tories, if they are smart enough, could kill off the social care and WFP narratives and nail Corbyn on security and defence.

How do the Tories "kill off the Social Care" issue and will anyone care to ask Mrs. May why it is that the Scots get this benefit absolutely for free, whereas the English and Welsh victims of dementia, etc face having to shell out many tens of thousands of pounds.

It's a good question, and if I had all the answers, I wouldn't be sitting at my keyboard on a Saturday night discussing the finer points of anal retention with serial anoraks.

SeanT said:

AlastairMeeks said:

SeanT said:

FF43 said:

Omnium said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Delete "Corbyn" throughout, replace with "Brexit". Still works.

Still didn't stop many of the poor voting for Brexit.

That may be true - Brexit is a one-off thing though. I know the raveling and unraveling might go on for many years, but the effect is basically a cliff-edge - scaling, or leaping off as you choose.

Corbynism is (potentially) a spiraling down into the abyss. Oddly I imagine that you're going to agree

Brexit is worse, definitely. Corbyn can change or be got rid of. Brexit will drag on forever.

You still don't get it. And you never will. For me and many people, Brexit = Independence.

You're saying "Independence will drag on forever, once we're free, we're free"

For a lot of us, maybe 52% or more, that is good thing.

That's because you (and your mythical many people) are deranged. Britain was independent last year and probably had more practical influence over its future than it will in a couple of years' time.

Control is nothing without power. In future, Britain will be a country that will have things done to it rather than participate in the doing.

So "independent" we can't leave this economic bloc without literally destroying the nation? As you continuously insist?

That's like telling a slave he's entirely free to go, but if he tries to leave we can't promise he won't be electrified by the invisible, lethal, Electro-Slave energy-dome we have erected over the cotton plantation, just to, you know, keep out annoying hawkers of patterned kerchiefs.

TheScreamingEagles said:

NEW THREAD

IanB2 said:

Alistair said:

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.

It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?

We are a lucky country.

Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.

I'm with you, bruv.

I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.

There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.

This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.

We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.

At the same population density as the area of Edinburgh I live in (my house, as does every house on the street, has it's own garden) would require 23 square kilometers of space for those 300,000 people.

Or 0.009% of the land area of the UK.

Fly over even the South East of England, and outside the M25 it is mostly fields.

Tykejohnno said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/st_newsroom/status/868569591940866049

Well the aide who won on the manifesto should be sacked.

Alistair said:

isam said:

My theory on the uselessness of polling seems to hold true if you look at the EU referendum polling

If you take a look at the polling after the murder of Jo Cox, almost every one shows a swing from Leave to Remain

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016

I say this was a combination of political obsessives

(a) Genuinely changing their minds as a result of deep thought/instinct following the murder
(b) Trying to be smart by saying they were going to vote the way that they thought was more likely to win

As it happens, the murder seemed to have no effect on the politically unengaged majority who don't answer opinion polls. Lots of people are uninterested in current affairs, don't watch news on the tv or read the papers. Facebook, twitter and instagram are only political if you choose them to be, and most don't.

Opinion polls only reflect the opinions of the politically engaged. Someone in the PB good books should write a thread about it

You're ignoring that a huge bulk of postal voting would have been done prior to Cox's assassination. And the polls were peak leave when postal voting started.

SeanT said:

I apologise to PB-ers for the lack of meltdown, this evening. Fact is.... I'm just too.... happy.

matt said:

Bromptonaut said:

SeanT said:

OblitusSumMe said:

SeanT said:

As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.

It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?

We are a lucky country.

Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.

I'm with you, bruv.

I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.

There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.

This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.

We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.

Utter bollocks, from start to finish. 2.27% of the UK's land is built on.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18623096

Stick to fiction.

An accurate yet utterly useless statistic. Fly from London heading west at night and look at the light density. People don't want to live in Lampeter.

bobajobPB said:

Tykejohnno said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/st_newsroom/status/868569591940866049

Well the aide who won on the manifesto should be sacked.

Relaunch a campaign 10 days from polling day? They are a joke.

Jason said:

Some sighs of relief coming from CCHQ round about now, I would suggest. It hasn't got any worse for the Tories, and maybe the start of a slow upward tick until polling day.

With Corbyn tied up trying to vainly defend the indefensible, May has to seize the initiative sharpish for the whole of next week. Easier said than done, but the Tories, if they are smart enough, could kill off the social care and WFP narratives and nail Corbyn on security and defence.