Like other forms of grief, having a loved one deteriorate is often more tough on those close to them than the sufferer themselves.
Dr Sox, highly recommend Mihaliy Csikszentmihalyi's "Flow". I talks about how people who suffer traumatic injuries can actually end up happier than before because they find in the accident, or in the recovery from it, some purpose in life, some doable challenge, that was lacking beforehand.
But also strongly recommended. Definitely affected the way I live my life. (Plus it's a cool one to know how to pronounce... it's a much nicer-sounding name than it looks on the page!)
Jeremy Corbyn is closer to winning the election than at any time during the campaign thanks to a surge in support from women, a poll for the Sunday Telegraph indicates.
Labour is now just 6 points behind the Tories with less than a fortnight to go – the smallest gap recorded by pollsters ORB International since the vote was called.
The Tories are on 44 per cent of the vote with Labour on 38. The Liberal Democrats are on 7 while Ukip has collapsed to just 4.
It marks a dramatic tightening of the election race, with the Tories enjoying a 15-point lead over Labour at the beginning of the month.
Driving Labour’s comeback appears to be women voters, who have grown increasingly positive about Mr Corbyn’s party in recent weeks.
Just 31 per cent of women planned to vote Labour in mid-May but that figure has jumped to 40 per cent this week – just a single point behind the Tories.
The polling, carried out after the Manchester terror attack on Wednesday and Thursday, indicates Labour has not been impacted by security becoming a more prominent election issue.
I say this was a combination of political obsessives
(a) Genuinely changing their minds as a result of deep thought/instinct following the murder (b) Trying to be smart by saying they were going to vote the way that they thought was more likely to win
As it happens, the murder seemed to have no effect on the politically unengaged majority who don't answer opinion polls. Lots of people are uninterested in current affairs, don't watch news on the tv or read the papers. Facebook, twitter and instagram are only political if you choose them to be, and most don't.
Opinion polls only reflect the opinions of the politically engaged. Someone in the PB good books should write a thread about it
But economically that immigration has proved to be a massive boost to the UK economy. Unemployment rates have stayed relatively low and government tax receipts have stayed relatively high.
Instinctively I'm an open borders sort of person. I prefer choosing the freedom and putting int he effort to deal with the consequences then hiding behind a wall.
But, recent British economic performance looks a lot less good when it is expressed in per capita terms, and it's per capita economic performance that is experienced by individuals..
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
It's fair to say that if EU25 hadn't happened, immigration to the UK would've been much lower in the period since 2004. But economically that immigration has proved to be a massive boost to the UK economy. Unemployment rates have stayed relatively low and government tax receipts have stayed relatively high.
Is Brexit a red herring regarding immigration? British business, and ordinary people who use the services they provide, will find it difficult to get by without the large immigrant workforce, and the economy is likely to contract. Theresa May kept issuing pointless figures about reducing immigration knowing full well that it wasn't going to happen and the government didn't really want it to happen, and she continues to do the same thing. Can a Conservative government really resist the call of industry and agriculture for a continued supply of reliable, hard-working, non-bolshie and, yes, relatively cheap labour? The simple answer is no.
Racists were relatively happy that EU migration meant that most immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.
If the black and Asian new migrants are skilled and needed - bring it on but eastern european immigration which is unskilled and poor and coming here not for a job then it can f--- right off.(Example the inner city I live)
Three so far have Labour on 34, 35 and 38%. Tories on a far more consistent 44-46%. So MoE worst case for Tories - 41, worst case scenario for Labour 31%, best case Tory 49% and Labour on an eye watering 41%.
Corbyn on a possible 41%, higher than Blair's landslide in 2001? Does that look credible to anyone?
Like other forms of grief, having a loved one deteriorate is often more tough on those close to them than the sufferer themselves.
Dr Sox, highly recommend Mihaliy Csikszentmihalyi's "Flow". I talks about how people who suffer traumatic injuries can actually end up happier than before because they find in the accident, or in the recovery from it, some purpose in life, some doable challenge, that was lacking beforehand.
But also strongly recommended. Definitely affected the way I live my life. (Plus it's a cool one to know how to pronounce... it's a much nicer-sounding name than it looks on the page!)
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
It's fair to say that if EU25 hadn't happened, immigration to the UK would've been much lower in the period since 2004. But economically that immigration has proved to be a massive boost to the UK economy. Unemployment rates have stayed relatively low and government tax receipts have stayed relatively high.
Is Brexit a red herring regarding immigration? British business, and ordinary people who use the services they provide, will find it difficult to get by without the large immigrant workforce, and the economy is likely to contract. Theresa May kept issuing pointless figures about reducing immigration knowing full well that it wasn't going to happen and the government didn't really want it to happen, and she continues to do the same thing. Can a Conservative government really resist the call of industry and agriculture for a continued supply of reliable, hard-working, non-bolshie and, yes, relatively cheap labour? The simple answer is no.
Racists were relatively happy that EU migration meant that most immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.
But all this is about to change, and radically, with the advent of automation, robots, and AI.
e.g. What the F are all those Muslim taxi drivers gonna do when we have driverless electric cars in about 5 years time?
These are real and fiercely serious questions. This shit is about to happen, like it or not. Low or medium skilled immigration is about to become unwanted and unusable
We would have created a whole raft of unsolvable social problems for a short term economic boost.
The Corbyn IRA attack ad is powerful and compelling. But there is one aspect of it that still needs emphasis. What sort of man invites to the place of work of two murdered men Anthony Berry and Airey Neave apologists for their killers? That was only ever permissible if the families of the murder victims were consulted and expressly consented to the invitation being made.Did Corbyn do that? It is not only his judgement that is in question. It is his common decency.
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
It's fair to say that if EU25 hadn't happened, immigration to the UK would've been much lower in the period since 2004. But economically that immigration has proved to be a massive boost to the UK economy. Unemployment rates have stayed relatively low and government tax receipts have stayed relatively high.
Is Brexit a red herring regarding immigration? British business, and ordinary people who use the services they provide, will find it difficult to get by without the large immigrant workforce, and the economy is likely to contract. Theresa May kept issuing pointless figures about reducing immigration knowing full well that it wasn't going to happen and the government didn't really want it to happen, and she continues to do the same thing. Can a Conservative government really resist the call of industry and agriculture for a continued supply of reliable, hard-working, non-bolshie and, yes, relatively cheap labour? The simple answer is no.
Racists were relatively happy that EU migration meant that most immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.
But all this is about to change, and radically, with the advent of automation, robots, and AI.
e.g. What the F are all those Muslim taxi drivers gonna do when we have driverless electric cars in about 5 years time?
These are real and fiercely serious questions. This shit is about to happen, like it or not. Low or medium skilled immigration is about to become unwanted and unusable
We won't have driverless electric taxis in 5 years. Really we won't.
Three so far have Labour on 34, 35 and 38%. Tories on a far more consistent 44-46%. So MoE worst case for Tories - 41, worst case scenario for Labour 31%, best case Tory 49% and Labour on an eye watering 41%.
Corbyn on a possible 41%, higher than Blair's landslide in 2001? Does that look credible to anyone?
Probably not. But hardly less so than a May-lead Tory party on 49%.
On my long, long walk through the Chilterns today I realised I didn't particularly care about most of the various outcomes of the election (bar an outright Corbyn majority: which I think is literally impossible)
Big Tory victory: glorious, revered TMay has a mandate and a firm hand, good for the best possible hard Brexit, if that is what we must endure
Small Tory victory: TMay is weakened, she will have to listen to other voices (including Soft Brexiteers), she might fall (and good riddance to this ludicrous, overdressed old witch)
Hung Parliament with Tory plurality: TMay goes, we get Soft Brexit under brilliant Boris (or whoever takes over the Tories)
Hung Parliament with Labour plurality, supported by the Scot Nats: this is the one which worries me. But it's really VERY unlikely, the electoral maths are horrific for Labour.
So: I am suddenly quite sanguine.
Is there any guarantee Boris would do soft Brexit, after all he effectively led the Leave campaign and used played the immigration card and getting millions back from Brussels to fund the NHS. Also, EU leaders loathe Boris, especially Macron who called him a 'criminal' they do not loathe May, Macron was happily chatting 1 on 1 with her at the G7 and said she has to deal with the card she was dealt having been a Remainer, though obviously how much the EU is willing to give depends on how much she is willing to compromise as Merkel and Macron have made clear. If the Tories get a majority of 50-100 I think she may compromise a bit, if the Tory majority is well over 100 the Tory right will be drunk on hard Brexit and she will have to deliver, if the Tory majority falls or it is a hung parliament she may well go and it will be soft Brexit most likely and Hammond is more likely than Boris to deliver it
I have mixed feelings about these attacks on Corbyn's IRA support.
They're mixed for one reason only. We could just about forgive a man who was misguided in such ways back then. He perhaps did think he would do good.
What's clear is that now, right now, he is suggesting that he should become our PM and that he would implement a set of policies which are so far from reality I can't think of a metaphor. People believe this crap too - free education, unlimited healthcare, a world-leading economy, in the EU for the good bits - but we get to choose, modern railways that run like clockwork, as much power as you want with bills that you won't notice, major companies appointing the underpriviledged to direct their operations in a meaningful way, tea with the Comrade Queen whenever you're in the area....
The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn. That doesn't change at all. If you're ok now you'll probably be less ok under Corbyn, and if you're rich now you'll be living elsewhere.
"The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn."
No. If you're poor now, you'll be even worse off under Corbyn.
Corbyn is offering a fantasy that will become a nightmare. Anyone who has looked at these kind of policies throughout the world knows how they end up.
Delete "Corbyn" throughout, replace with "Brexit". Still works.
Still didn't stop many of the poor voting for Brexit.
That may be true - Brexit is a one-off thing though. I know the raveling and unraveling might go on for many years, but the effect is basically a cliff-edge - scaling, or leaping off as you choose.
Corbynism is (potentially) a spiraling down into the abyss. Oddly I imagine that you're going to agree
Brexit is worse, definitely. Corbyn can change or be got rid of. Brexit will drag on forever.
My final thought for the evening is as both May and Trump have abruptly moved from positions they held while not in power to positions they now adopt while in power, I wonder if the assumptions those not well disposed toward Corbyn are making are actually valid.
Why do we assume that the views and positions he has held in Opposition will be the same were he to become Prime Minister ? Trump has done a series of volte-faces and May's flip flopping on social care shows you can't judge a politician by what they say.
Thank you ever so much for the link, FoxinSox, I have appreciated for a long time (much longer than I have been posting) your input into matters medical on this site.
--- snip
--- If we assume that USA is similar to UK in terms of prognosis, what this tells me is that the chance of my spending, say 5 or more years in end-of-life residential care (costing about 150k to 250k) is absolutely miniscule.
The typical cost (based on a median stay of 5 months) is the monthly cost (typically £3,000) x 5 which is £15,000).
The average cost (based on average stay of 14 months) is the monthly cost (say £3,000) x 14 which is £42,000).
The study shows that 27% of people enter residential care before death.
----- This has reassured me that the tory proposals are nothing to fear, but also that a National care Service need not be unaffordable.
Last post for the night, dementia is not solely an old age condition it can strike through a number of causes, TBI, stroke, heart failure leading to hypoxia, etc it's not even physically progressive just a life sentence for them and their families. I don't expect anybody to pay for my problems but the care system has got to be more encompassing
Yes. My friend in longterm care has been there years following his stroke.
He seems surprisingly happy with his lot, but that may in itself be because of some brain damage in the frontal lobe. Merciful if so.
This is an astonishing book in many ways, but the author was another person who enjoyed life despite a catastrophic neurological event:
Like other forms of grief, having a loved one deteriorate is often more tough on those close to them than the sufferer themselves.
People who are disabled have a variety of benefits open to them don't they? Over 65s can get an attendance allowance. Quite apart from free medical treatment. https://www.stroke.org.uk/what-stroke/life-after-stroke/getting-financial-support If the co-ordination of treatment/support is inefficient then as a medical practitioner I expect you and your colleagues to step forward and take your share of the blame.
My father died of a stroke and my brother died of complications from a stroke so no one jump to conclusions that I am being heartless in looking at the situation
The Corbyn IRA attack ad is powerful and compelling. But there is one aspect of it that still needs emphasis. What sort of man invites to the place of work of two murdered men Anthony Berry and Airey Neave apologists for their killers? That was only ever permissible if the families of the murder victims were consulted and expressly consented to the invitation being made.Did Corbyn do that? It is not only his judgement that is in question. It is his common decency.
Yes, but Corbyn was a covert peace broker, don'tyaknow.
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
It's fair to say that if EU25 hadn't happened, immigration to the UK would've been much lower in the period since 2004. But economically that immigration has proved to be a massive boost to the UK economy. Unemployment rates have stayed relatively low and government tax receipts have stayed relatively high.
Is Brexit a red herring regarding immigration? British business, and ordinary people who use the services they provide, will find it difficult to get by without the large immigrant workforce, and the economy is likely to contract. Theresa May kept issuing pointless figures about reducing immigration knowing full well that it wasn't going to happen and the government didn't really want it to happen, and she continues to do the same thing. Can a Conservative government really resist the call of industry and agriculture for a continued supply of reliable, hard-working, non-bolshie and, yes, relatively cheap labour? The simple answer is no.
Racists were relatively happy that EU migration meant that most immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.
But all this is about to change, and radically, with the advent of automation, robots, and AI.
e.g. What the F are all those Muslim taxi drivers gonna do when we have driverless electric cars in about 5 years time?
These are real and fiercely serious questions. This shit is about to happen, like it or not. Low or medium skilled immigration is about to become unwanted and unusable
We won't have driverless electric taxis in 5 years. Really we won't.
And certainly not robot fruit and vegetable pickers, robot care workers or robot nurses.
The Corbyn IRA attack ad is powerful and compelling. But there is one aspect of it that still needs emphasis. What sort of man invites to the place of work of two murdered men Anthony Berry and Airey Neave apologists for their killers?
The word that springs to mind is obvious, but my post would likely get deleted.
The election has opened a lot of people's eyes to social care facts. I knew nothing - now I've maged to google a little. I understand that the costs of residential care are between 30k and 50k per annum, depending on nursing needs, and that home care is around around 6k per year per hour per day (if that makes sense).
The only thing I don't know is what's the prognosis after the first time care is required. Could I live for twenty years after I first needed home care with dementia. Could I live twenty years after residential care was required? Is it likely? What percentage of people end their days in residential care, and on average how long do they stay there?
After seeing the election hoo-haa, any sensible politician might kick it into the long grass. But some public education would be useful.
A very sensible set of questions to which I only have imperfectly remembered reported answers. In Cumbria when I was a county councillor the first myth was that people lived for years and decades in care facilities. Most live less than a year from first admission.
From my own experience with my mother which was faily typical - old people get along disguising the fact they are stopping half way up stairs for a breather until there is some apparently trivial incident such as flu - end up hospitalised - other things happen - and then the cart tips over and it is immediately apparent they can't look after themselves and more to the point they can't be looked after at home.
In fact this is well down the line - in my mothers case 11 or 12 years from first frailty. The hospital wants to discharge and then social services send people out to measure the steps in the hallway and other seriously pointless things - but ignore the fact that there is only an 88 year old man in the house to give 24 hr attention. The family refuses to allow release - quite rightly and then there is the search for a high dependency care home place - which simply does not exist until someone else dies.
Perhaps Theresa isn't the fool some hope she is. All this discussion on social care means there is a real prospect of a ground breaking National Social Care Act in the next parliament. Without it the NHS will continue to struggle from one winter crisis to the next and extra money for the NHS is no answer at all.
I have mixed feelings about these attacks on Corbyn's IRA support.
They're mixed for one reason only. We could just about forgive a man who was misguided in such ways back then. He perhaps did think he would do good.
What's clear is that now, right now, he is suggesting that he should become our PM and that he would implement a set of policies which are so far from reality I can't think of a metaphor. People believe this crap too - free education, unlimited healthcare, a world-leading economy, in the EU for the good bits - but we get to choose, modern railways that run like clockwork, as much power as you want with bills that you won't notice, major companies appointing the underpriviledged to direct their operations in a meaningful way, tea with the Comrade Queen whenever you're in the area....
The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn. That doesn't change at all. If you're ok now you'll probably be less ok under Corbyn, and if you're rich now you'll be living elsewhere.
"The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn."
No. If you're poor now, you'll be even worse off under Corbyn.
Corbyn is offering a fantasy that will become a nightmare. Anyone who has looked at these kind of policies throughout the world knows how they end up.
Delete "Corbyn" throughout, replace with "Brexit". Still works.
Still didn't stop many of the poor voting for Brexit.
That may be true - Brexit is a one-off thing though. I know the raveling and unraveling might go on for many years, but the effect is basically a cliff-edge - scaling, or leaping off as you choose.
Corbynism is (potentially) a spiraling down into the abyss. Oddly I imagine that you're going to agree
Brexit is worse, definitely. Corbyn can change or be got rid of. Brexit will drag on forever.
You still don't get it. And you never will. For me and many people, Brexit = Independence.
You're saying "Independence will drag on forever, once we're free, we're free"
For a lot of us, maybe 52% or more, that is good thing.
Some people quite literally prefer cheap lattes. If it wasn't hilarious it would be tragic....
Three so far have Labour on 34, 35 and 38%. Tories on a far more consistent 44-46%. So MoE worst case for Tories - 41, worst case scenario for Labour 31%, best case Tory 49% and Labour on an eye watering 41%.
Corbyn on a possible 41%, higher than Blair's landslide in 2001? Does that look credible to anyone?
So what's your explanation? During last year's EU Referendum and indeed at the time of the 2015 GE, much was made by OGH of the differences in the results between internet and phone conducted polls, yet this time the difference has been largely ignored. Is it not perhaps now time to check out whether or not there have been discernible differences and if so to which party's advantage?
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
But how many want to remain (no pun intended) here forever? And how does that split between EU and non EU Do not forget that of the non EU a significant number are for instance US, Canadian, Australian and NZ citizens. Is there is a churn of overseas students and temporary workers from everywhere whose accommodation requirement are quite limited in their expectations.
Oh I do take your point but should it not be discussed against a background of some agreed detail to the bare facts?
Some sighs of relief coming from CCHQ round about now, I would suggest. It hasn't got any worse for the Tories, and maybe the start of a slow upward tick until polling day.
With Corbyn tied up trying to vainly defend the indefensible, May has to seize the initiative sharpish for the whole of next week. Easier said than done, but the Tories, if they are smart enough, could kill off the social care and WFP narratives and nail Corbyn on security and defence.
Like other forms of grief, having a loved one deteriorate is often more tough on those close to them than the sufferer themselves.
Dr Sox, highly recommend Mihaliy Csikszentmihalyi's "Flow". I talks about how people who suffer traumatic injuries can actually end up happier than before because they find in the accident, or in the recovery from it, some purpose in life, some doable challenge, that was lacking beforehand.
But also strongly recommended. Definitely affected the way I live my life. (Plus it's a cool one to know how to pronounce... it's a much nicer-sounding name than it looks on the page!)
Hungarian is phonetic but not intuitively so.
I am glad that I do not have to spell that name to receptionists!
I have downloaded a free sample on kindle, to peruse.
It dors sound a lot like the work ethic to me, but perhaps there is more to it. Thanks.
Some sighs of relief coming from CCHQ round about now, I would suggest. It hasn't got any worse for the Tories, and maybe the start of a slow upward tick until polling day.
With Corbyn tied up trying to vainly defend the indefensible, May has to seize the initiative sharpish for the whole of next week. Easier said than done, but the Tories, if they are smart enough, could kill off the social care and WFP narratives and nail Corbyn on security and defence.
I think the next two weeks will see the gap widening again and we'll finish with a Con lead of between 10-15% on polling day.
My final thought for the evening is as both May and Trump have abruptly moved from positions they held while not in power to positions they now adopt while in power, I wonder if the assumptions those not well disposed toward Corbyn are making are actually valid.
Why do we assume that the views and positions he has held in Opposition will be the same were he to become Prime Minister ? Trump has done a series of volte-faces and May's flip flopping on social care shows you can't judge a politician by what they say.
There don't appear to be many examples of views & positions on which he has ever changed his mind. He is prepared to accept a democratic vote of party members in deciding what a policy shall be.
I think it is very funny. I have posted on here before that I believe opinion polls are manipulated to produce a story to make people do certain things in an election campaign. I was listening to Michael Portillo on this week and he said words to the effect that Labour MPs were telling voters that Corbyn couldn't win and so it was alright to vote for them and hence Labour. Just think about what Portillo said, that of the approximately 230 Labour MPs who are now candidates for re-election were telling this to voters and it was shown in the polls. Am I alone in thinking this is utter bull shit? I mean if you canvass for 4 hours as a candidate how many people will you actually speak too? 100, 200 people? I think you would be lucky to speak to more than 40 people. That's if their in! it is just physically impossible to move opinion polls in this way. Again on TV you get people who are life long labour supporters who say they cannot vote for Corbyn, their is a huge disconnect somewhere! So this talk of wobbles is funny but it is an artificial construct of the political discourse that goes on in this country. Just like the Clegg surge of 2010 was in the end rubbish I believe this Corbyn surge is without foundation.
Like other forms of grief, having a loved one deteriorate is often more tough on those close to them than the sufferer themselves.
Dr Sox, highly recommend Mihaliy Csikszentmihalyi's "Flow". I talks about how people who suffer traumatic injuries can actually end up happier than before because they find in the accident, or in the recovery from it, some purpose in life, some doable challenge, that was lacking beforehand.
But also strongly recommended. Definitely affected the way I live my life. (Plus it's a cool one to know how to pronounce... it's a much nicer-sounding name than it looks on the page!)
Hungarian is phonetic but not intuitively so.
I am glad that I do not have to spell that name to receptionists!
I have downloaded a free sample on kindle, to peruse.
It dors sound a lot like the work ethic to me, but perhaps there is more to it. Thanks.
I have to spell my email address in full every single bloody time.
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
It's fair to say immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.
But all this is about to change, and radically, with the advent of automation, robots, and AI.
e.g. What the F are all those Muslim taxi drivers gonna do when we have driverless electric cars in about 5 years time?
These are real and fiercely serious questions. This shit is about to happen, like it or not. Low or medium skilled immigration is about to become unwanted and unusable
We won't have driverless electric taxis in 5 years. Really we won't.
Maybe not. A touch of hyperbole. But in 10-15 years? Yes.
And my overall point is good. Mass immigration is about to become really the LAST thing you want, as jobs dry up.
Not really. We don't have a massive unemployment problem in the UK and there isn't any sign that this will change. Without immigration our birth rate would be below replacement rate and our total population would fall, as it is already in a number of western economies. The bulge of baby boomers reaching retirement, and extending life expectancy, means that working age people will decline as a proportion of the population without an ongoing influx of new workers. The Tories know this, which is why despite a series of promises they have done next to nothing in seven years.
Some sighs of relief coming from CCHQ round about now, I would suggest. It hasn't got any worse for the Tories, and maybe the start of a slow upward tick until polling day.
With Corbyn tied up trying to vainly defend the indefensible, May has to seize the initiative sharpish for the whole of next week. Easier said than done, but the Tories, if they are smart enough, could kill off the social care and WFP narratives and nail Corbyn on security and defence.
How do the Tories "kill off the Social Care" issue and will anyone care to ask Mrs. May why it is that the Scots get this benefit absolutely for free, whereas the English and Welsh victims of dementia, etc face having to shell out many tens of thousands of pounds.
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
It's fair to say that if EU25 hadn't happened, immigration to the UK would've been much lower in the period since 2004. But economically that immigration has proved to be a massive boost to the UK economy. Unemployment rates have stayed relatively low and government tax receipts have stayed relatively high.
SNIP to happen and the government didn't really want it to happen, and she continues to do the same thing. Can a Conservative government really resist the call of industry and agriculture for a continued supply of reliable, hard-working, non-bolshie and, yes, relatively cheap labour? The simple answer is no.
Racists were relatively happy that EU migration meant that most immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.
But all this is about to change, and radically, with the advent of automation, robots, and AI.
e.g. What the F are all those Muslim taxi drivers gonna do when we have driverless electric cars in about 5 years time?
These are real and fiercely serious questions. This shit is about to happen, like it or not. Low or medium skilled immigration is about to become unwanted and unusable
We would have created a whole raft of unsolvable social problems for a short term economic boost.
That could almost be a metaphor for Conservative party economic policy, 2012 - 2016.
Some sighs of relief coming from CCHQ round about now, I would suggest. It hasn't got any worse for the Tories, and maybe the start of a slow upward tick until polling day.
With Corbyn tied up trying to vainly defend the indefensible, May has to seize the initiative sharpish for the whole of next week. Easier said than done, but the Tories, if they are smart enough, could kill off the social care and WFP narratives and nail Corbyn on security and defence.
How do the Tories "kill off the Social Care" issue and will anyone care to ask Mrs. May why it is that the Scots get this benefit absolutely for free, whereas the English and Welsh victims of dementia, etc face having to shell out many tens of thousands of pounds.
It's a devolved matter? Unless May is planning to abolish the Scottish Parliament
Thank you ever so much for the link, FoxinSox, I have appreciated for a long time (much longer than I have been posting) your input into matters medical on this site.
--- The study authors used data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to describe the lengths of stay of older adults who resided in nursing homes at the end of life. What they found was that out of the 8,433 study participants who died between 1992 and 2006, 27.3% of resided in a nursing home prior to their death. Most of these patients (70%) actually died in the nursing home without being transferred to another setting like a hospital.
The length of stay data were striking:
the median length of stay in a nursing home before death was 5 months the average length of stay was longer at 14 months due to a small number of study participants who had very long lengths of stay 65% died within 1 year of nursing home admission 53% died within 6 months of nursing home admission
--- If we assume that USA is similar to UK in terms of prognosis, what this tells me is that the chance of my spending, say 5 or more years in end-of-life residential care (costing about 150k to 250k) is absolutely miniscule.
The typical cost (based on a median stay of 5 months) is the monthly cost (typically £3,000) x 5 which is £15,000).
The average cost (based on average stay of 14 months) is the monthly cost (say £3,000) x 14 which is £42,000).
The study shows that 27% of people enter residential care before death.
----- This has reassured me that the tory proposals are nothing to fear, but also that a National care Service need not be unaffordable.
Last post for the night, dementia is not solely an old age condition it can strike through a number of causes, TBI, stroke, heart failure leading to hypoxia, etc it's not even physically progressive just a life sentence for them and their families. I don't expect anybody to pay for my problems but the care system has got to be more encompassing
Yes. My friend in longterm care has been there years following his stroke.
He seems surprisingly happy with his lot, but that may in itself be because of some brain damage in the frontal lobe. Merciful if so.
This is an astonishing book in many ways, but the author was another person who enjoyed life despite a catastrophic neurological event:
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
It's fair to say immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.
But all this is about to change, and radically, with the advent of automation, robots, and AI.
e.g. What the F are all those Muslim taxi drivers gonna do when we have driverless electric cars in about 5 years time?
These are real and fiercely serious questions. This shit is about to happen, like it or not. Low or medium skilled immigration is about to become unwanted and unusable
We won't have driverless electric taxis in 5 years. Really we won't.
Maybe not. A touch of hyperbole. But in 10-15 years? Yes.
And my overall point is good. Mass immigration is about to become really the LAST thing you want, as jobs dry up.
Not really. We don't have a massive unemployment problem in the UK and there isn't any sign that this will change. Without immigration our birth rate would be below replacement rate and our total population would fall, as it is already in a number of western economies. The bulge of baby boomers reaching retirement, and extending life expectancy, means that working age people will decline as a proportion of the population without an ongoing influx of new workers. The Tories know this, which is why despite a series of promises they have done next to nothing in seven years.
I have mixed feelings about these attacks on Corbyn's IRA support.
They're mixed for one reason only. We could just about forgive a man who was misguided in such ways back then. He perhaps did think he would do good.
What's clear is that now, right now, he is suggesting that he should become our PM and that he would implement a set of policies which are so far from reality I can't think of a metaphor. People believe this crap too - free education, unlimited healthcare, a world-leading economy, in the EU for the good bits - but we get to choose, modern railways that run like clockwork, as much power as you want with bills that you won't notice, major companies appointing the underpriviledged to direct their operations in a meaningful way, tea with the Comrade Queen whenever you're in the area....
The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn. That doesn't change at all. If you're ok now you'll probably be less ok under Corbyn, and if you're rich now you'll be living elsewhere.
"The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn."
No. If you're poor now, you'll be even worse off under Corbyn.
Corbyn is offering a fantasy that will become a nightmare. Anyone who has looked at these kind of policies throughout the world knows how they end up.
Delete "Corbyn" throughout, replace with "Brexit". Still works.
Still didn't stop many of the poor voting for Brexit.
That may be true - Brexit is a one-off thing though. I know the raveling and unraveling might go on for many years, but the effect is basically a cliff-edge - scaling, or leaping off as you choose.
Corbynism is (potentially) a spiraling down into the abyss. Oddly I imagine that you're going to agree
Brexit is worse, definitely. Corbyn can change or be got rid of. Brexit will drag on forever.
You still don't get it. And you never will. For me and many people, Brexit = Independence.
You're saying "Independence will drag on forever, once we're free, we're free"
For a lot of us, maybe 52% or more, that is good thing.
That's because you (and your mythical many people) are deranged. Britain was independent last year and probably had more practical influence over its future than it will in a couple of years' time.
Control is nothing without power. In future, Britain will be a country that will have things done to it rather than participate in the doing.
Like other forms of grief, having a loved one deteriorate is often more tough on those close to them than the sufferer themselves.
Dr Sox, highly recommend Mihaliy Csikszentmihalyi's "Flow". I talks about how people who suffer traumatic injuries can actually end up happier than before because they find in the accident, or in the recovery from it, some purpose in life, some doable challenge, that was lacking beforehand.
But also strongly recommended. Definitely affected the way I live my life. (Plus it's a cool one to know how to pronounce... it's a much nicer-sounding name than it looks on the page!)
Hungarian is phonetic but not intuitively so.
I am glad that I do not have to spell that name to receptionists!
I have downloaded a free sample on kindle, to peruse.
It dors sound a lot like the work ethic to me, but perhaps there is more to it. Thanks.
I have to spell my email address in full every single bloody time.
Some sighs of relief coming from CCHQ round about now, I would suggest. It hasn't got any worse for the Tories, and maybe the start of a slow upward tick until polling day.
With Corbyn tied up trying to vainly defend the indefensible, May has to seize the initiative sharpish for the whole of next week. Easier said than done, but the Tories, if they are smart enough, could kill off the social care and WFP narratives and nail Corbyn on security and defence.
How do the Tories "kill off the Social Care" issue and will anyone care to ask Mrs. May why it is that the Scots get this benefit absolutely for free, whereas the English and Welsh victims of dementia, etc face having to shell out many tens of thousands of pounds.
It's a good question, and if I had all the answers, I wouldn't be sitting at my keyboard on a Saturday night discussing the finer points of anal retention with serial anoraks.
Some sighs of relief coming from CCHQ round about now, I would suggest. It hasn't got any worse for the Tories, and maybe the start of a slow upward tick until polling day.
With Corbyn tied up trying to vainly defend the indefensible, May has to seize the initiative sharpish for the whole of next week. Easier said than done, but the Tories, if they are smart enough, could kill off the social care and WFP narratives and nail Corbyn on security and defence.
How do the Tories "kill off the Social Care" issue and will anyone care to ask Mrs. May why it is that the Scots get this benefit absolutely for free, whereas the English and Welsh victims of dementia, etc face having to shell out many tens of thousands of pounds.
Hope she as a good answer with the leaders QT coming up.
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
It's fair to say immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.
But all this is about to change, and radically, with the advent of automation, robots, and AI.
e.g. What the F are all those Muslim taxi drivers gonna do when we have driverless electric cars in about 5 years time?
These are real and fiercely serious questions. This shit is about to happen, like it or not. Low or medium skilled immigration is about to become unwanted and unusable
We won't have driverless electric taxis in 5 years. Really we won't.
Maybe not. A touch of hyperbole. But in 10-15 years? Yes.
And my overall point is good. Mass immigration is about to become really the LAST thing you want, as jobs dry up.
Not much call for farriers these days. All those ex-farriers hanging around street corners just waiting for the occasional horse with the want of a horseshoe nail to turn up.
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
It's fair to say immigrants were now white. There will now be a rebalancing so that more immigrants will be black and Asian. This might be a positive outcome of Brexit, but not for racists.
But all this is about to change, and radically, with the advent of automation, robots, and AI.
e.g. What the F are all those Muslim taxi drivers gonna do when we have driverless electric cars in about 5 years time?
These are real and fiercely serious questions. This shit is about to happen, like it or not. Low or medium skilled immigration is about to become unwanted and unusable
We won't have driverless electric taxis in 5 years. Really we won't.
Maybe not. A touch of hyperbole. But in 10-15 years? Yes.
And my overall point is good. Mass immigration is about to become really the LAST thing you want, as jobs dry up.
Not really. We don't have a massive unemployment problem in the UK and there isn't any sign that this will change. Without immigration our birth rate would be below replacement rate and our total population would fall, as it is already in a number of western economies. The bulge of baby boomers reaching retirement, and extending life expectancy, means that working age people will decline as a proportion of the population without an ongoing influx of new workers. The Tories know this, which is why despite a series of promises they have done next to nothing in seven years.
Someone has to pay the tax.
And eventually it will have to include the retired themselves, from their property equity. Which that clever Mr Timothy already knows.
So 375+ seats ..... that's very close to what the spread-betting firms are currently offering and they're usually not too far out, although, like everyone else, they were in 2015.
I have mixed feelings about these attacks on Corbyn's IRA support.
They're mixed for one reason only. We could just about forgive a man who was misguided in such ways back then. He perhaps did think he would do good.
What's clear is that now, right now, he is suggesting that he should become our PM and that he would implement a set of policies which are so far from reality I can't think of a metaphor. People believe this crap too - free education, unlimited healthcare, a world-leading economy, in the EU for the good bits - but we get to choose, modern railways that run like clockwork, as much power as you want with bills that you won't notice, major companies appointing the underpriviledged to direct their operations in a meaningful way, tea with the Comrade Queen whenever you're in the area....
The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn. That doesn't change at all. If you're ok now you'll probably be less ok under Corbyn, and if you're rich now you'll be living elsewhere.
"The truth is that if you're poor now you'll be poor under Corbyn."
No. If you're poor now, you'll be even worse off under Corbyn.
Corbyn is offering a fantasy that will become a nightmare. Anyone who has looked at these kind of policies throughout the world knows how they end up.
Delete "Corbyn" throughout, replace with "Brexit". Still works.
Still didn't stop many of the poor voting for Brexit.
That may be true - Brexit is a one-off thing though. I know the raveling and unraveling might go on for many years, but the effect is basically a cliff-edge - scaling, or leaping off as you choose.
Corbynism is (potentially) a spiraling down into the abyss. Oddly I imagine that you're going to agree
Brexit is worse, definitely. Corbyn can change or be got rid of. Brexit will drag on forever.
You still don't get it. And you never will. For me and many people, Brexit = Independence.
You're saying "Independence will drag on forever, once we're free, we're free"
For a lot of us, maybe 52% or more, that is good thing.
I'm not saying that at all, of course. You are.
Edit: what I do say is that Brexit will be a long drawn out and messy affair that will not deliver any of the benefits many Leave voters projected onto it.
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
At the same population density as the area of Edinburgh I live in (my house, as does every house on the street, has it's own garden) would require 23 square kilometers of space for those 300,000 people.
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
At the same population density as the area of Edinburgh I live in (my house, as does every house on the street, has it's own garden) would require 23 square kilometers of space for those 300,000 people.
Or 0.009% of the land area of the UK.
Why does everyone need a garden ? Unless you like weeds.
If we have anywhere near a similar drop, we will be in Hung Parliament territory.
We need regional polls. The national polls this time is almost useless.
Would be surprising if Labour managed to squeeze another 10 points out of the other parties. The Tories are actually up one point from where they were prior to dissolution!
As an aside, the Chilterns are fucking beautiful. I've walked them before, but, today, Wow.
It has the perfect combination of hills and hidden valleys and red kites and exquisite little villages and it's just 45 minutes from Marylebone (the most charming and usable of London termini). Incredible rural beauty less than an hour from the heart of the world's greatest city?
We are a lucky country.
Remember that the next time the developer lobby leans on the government of the day and argues for building in the green belt.
I'm with you, bruv.
I love rural English beauty. It's a unique and precious thing. And it is another reason I am in favour of Brexit.
There is simply no way you can import 300,000 people every single year - most of whom want to live in England, and SE England at that - and pretend that, in the end, this won't impact the countryside we have left.
This is what Remainers won't face. Net migration of 330,000 a year was simply unsustainable. We don't have room for a population of 80m, 90m, 120m. An economy built on the sugar rush of immigration is an economy headed for socio-economic diabetes.
We need to find a new way to grow. Not by numbers alone.
At the same population density as the area of Edinburgh I live in (my house, as does every house on the street, has it's own garden) would require 23 square kilometers of space for those 300,000 people.
Or 0.009% of the land area of the UK.
Fly over even the South East of England, and outside the M25 it is mostly fields.
Comments
But also strongly recommended. Definitely affected the way I live my life. (Plus it's a cool one to know how to pronounce... it's a much nicer-sounding name than it looks on the page!)
Probably means some movement back to cons since then
I have an anecdotal evidence about this. Our receptionist told me that she has the look of Thatcher and she is beginning to go off her.
She will still vote Tory because of Corbyn. However, she said, he is less barmy than she had initially thought.
If you take a look at the polling after the murder of Jo Cox, almost every one shows a swing from Leave to Remain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#2016
I say this was a combination of political obsessives
(a) Genuinely changing their minds as a result of deep thought/instinct following the murder
(b) Trying to be smart by saying they were going to vote the way that they thought was more likely to win
As it happens, the murder seemed to have no effect on the politically unengaged majority who don't answer opinion polls. Lots of people are uninterested in current affairs, don't watch news on the tv or read the papers. Facebook, twitter and instagram are only political if you choose them to be, and most don't.
Opinion polls only reflect the opinions of the politically engaged. Someone in the PB good books should write a thread about it
But, recent British economic performance looks a lot less good when it is expressed in per capita terms, and it's per capita economic performance that is experienced by individuals..
Corbyn on a possible 41%, higher than Blair's landslide in 2001? Does that look credible to anyone?
But hardly less so than a May-lead Tory party on 49%.
1. Where certainty to vote is used for the final weighted sample , Labour does well.
2. Where GE2015 voters are used for final weighting
I take it ORB uses #1.
The LDs would be down to 1 seat (Farron) and the Con majority would be 42.
So the Tories don't need to worry, but it would have been an unnecessary GE, and Chairman May would be weakened.
Why do we assume that the views and positions he has held in Opposition will be the same were he to become Prime Minister ? Trump has done a series of volte-faces and May's flip flopping on social care shows you can't judge a politician by what they say.
I don't believe it.
https://www.stroke.org.uk/what-stroke/life-after-stroke/getting-financial-support
If the co-ordination of treatment/support is inefficient then as a medical practitioner I expect you and your colleagues to step forward and take your share of the blame.
My father died of a stroke and my brother died of complications from a stroke so no one jump to conclusions that I am being heartless in looking at the situation
Con 43 (nc) Lab 36 (-2) LD 9 (-1) UKIP 4 (nc)
TMICIPM
The surge subsides. What a surprise.
It'll be 9-12 point lead and a 100+ maj.
Like we thought at the start.....
From my own experience with my mother which was faily typical - old people get along disguising the fact they are stopping half way up stairs for a breather until there is some apparently trivial incident such as flu - end up hospitalised - other things happen - and then the cart tips over and it is immediately apparent they can't look after themselves and more to the point they can't be looked after at home.
In fact this is well down the line - in my mothers case 11 or 12 years from first frailty. The hospital wants to discharge and then social services send people out to measure the steps in the hallway and other seriously pointless things - but ignore the fact that there is only an 88 year old man in the house to give 24 hr attention. The family refuses to allow release - quite rightly and then there is the search for a high dependency care home place - which simply does not exist until someone else dies.
Perhaps Theresa isn't the fool some hope she is. All this discussion on social care means there is a real prospect of a ground breaking National Social Care Act in the next parliament.
Without it the NHS will continue to struggle from one winter crisis to the next and extra money for the NHS is no answer at all.
Con 43.9
Lab 35.9
LD 8.0
UKIP 4.6
Tory lead 8.0
North
Cons 43
Lab 45
LD 6
UKIP 5
Midlands
Cons 52
Lab 31
LD 8
UKIP 6
South (incl London)
Cons 47
Labour 33
LD 12
UKIP 5
London (specifically)
Con 33
Lab 44
LD 14
UKIP 5
Scotland
SNP 40
Cons 35
Lab 17
LD 5
Wales
Con 41
Lab 36
Plaid 12
LD 1
UKIP 5
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Independent-Sunday-Mirror-VI-26th-May-2017_694814867.pdf
Our infamous subsets will need to be looked at again.
Is Labour really doing better in Scotland as in Wales. Corbyn has given the WC voters something to cheer.
During last year's EU Referendum and indeed at the time of the 2015 GE, much was made by OGH of the differences in the results between internet and phone conducted polls, yet this time the difference has been largely ignored. Is it not perhaps now time to check out whether or not there have been discernible differences and if so to which party's advantage?
Do not forget that of the non EU a significant number are for instance US, Canadian, Australian and NZ citizens.
Is there is a churn of overseas students and temporary workers from everywhere whose accommodation requirement are quite limited in their expectations.
Oh I do take your point but should it not be discussed against a background of some agreed detail to the bare facts?
With Corbyn tied up trying to vainly defend the indefensible, May has to seize the initiative sharpish for the whole of next week. Easier said than done, but the Tories, if they are smart enough, could kill off the social care and WFP narratives and nail Corbyn on security and defence.
I live in the South. It makes PBTories look like Lib Dems.
I have downloaded a free sample on kindle, to peruse.
It dors sound a lot like the work ethic to me, but perhaps there is more to it. Thanks.
It's 1987 all over again...
Or are we seeing swing-back going against a government this time? I thought swing-back was in the final stages of the campaign?
Still think it's highly unlikely Jezza gets a better national share of the vote than Ed Miliband on the day.
Control is nothing without power. In future, Britain will be a country that will have things done to it rather than participate in the doing.
stubbornbastard@remoaner.com ?
#MegaPollingSaturday
The South East is actually
Cons 56
Lab 28
LD 8
UKIP 5
London
Cons 33
Lab 44
LD 14
UKIP 5
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Independent-Sunday-Mirror-VI-26th-May-2017_694814867.pdf
Overall the Tories lead Labour in Scotland, Wales, the South East, the South West, the East, the West Midlands, the East Midlands and the North West. Labour lead the Tories in London, the North East and Yorkshire and Humber
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Independent-Sunday-Mirror-VI-26th-May-2017_694814867.pdf
It's over TMICIPM
23/4 = 19.4%
30/4 = 18.2%
7/5 = 18.6%
14/5 = 17.2%
21/5 = 12.9%
28/5 (so far!) = 8.0%
Edit: what I do say is that Brexit will be a long drawn out and messy affair that will not deliver any of the benefits many Leave voters projected onto it.
We need regional polls. The national polls this time is almost useless.
Or 0.009% of the land area of the UK.
Blame the drunken, heady feeling of witnessing a LAST BALL ENGLAND WIN!
Jezza sub 40% is disaster he needs to go.
Over 40 looking very unlikely