politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first two polls of tonight show the Tory lead halving in a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first two polls of tonight show the Tory lead halving in a month
The @OpiniumResearch poll Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2) LD 7 (-1) UKIP 5 (nc)
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Yours,
Diane.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/868515497310126080
Unlike the topsy-turvy qualifying. My pre-race ramble is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/monaco-pre-race-2017.html
Wish I'd put more on Raikkonen at 27 for the win, but there we are.
Con share with Opinium hasn't changed since the start of the campaign. Labour up at the expense of the LDs and UKIP:
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/868508385121107973
https://twitter.com/DannyDeVito/status/868498673872891904
Con 44.0
Lab 35.4
LD 8.0
UKIP 4.6
average Kantar/YG/SurveyMonkey/ComRes/Opinium Tory lead = 8.6%
Now Corbyn may well take a hammering but that is still huge scope for major damage to Con over social care.
Thus May (and whoever appears for Con on the BBC debate) needs to be prepared word perfect on precisely what she is going to say - and her words need to be focus grouped to the letter and agreed with Lynton Crosby.
Mr. Tang, yes, I believe so. Minor party numbers were pretty accurately predicted by pollsters last time.
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?
http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/labour-surge-real/
Anyone think the nationalist vote in scotland might be in for a bashing? and if so will it be Ruth who cleans up or Jezza?
People liked Michael Howard's policies. Until they learnt they were Conservative.
May leads on leadership.
Tories win the election.
Politics is an unpredictable game, and giving Corbyn even the chance to become PM before the most important negotiations this country will perhaps ever face reeked of party before country.
Even if the Tories win handily, it was a gamble not worth taking.
https://twitter.com/British_Airways/status/868520211976212480
Imagine she'd gone into the election due to necessity, polls level-pegging, and after negotiating to leave the EU. She'd be losing right now.
From tories expecting 200 majorities crapping their going to lose to leftes who labelled Jezza a doonkey saying hes not that bad.
Tim Farron has been such a disappointment.
So a gamble, yes, but a gamble with a lot to gain.
James Kelly of another blog has the following :
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
SNP 42.3% (-2.7)
Conservatives 29.0% (+5.0)
Labour 21.7% (-0.5)
Liberal Democrats 4.7% (-2.7)
That looks about right, he uses both Scottish subsamples and real polls.
May's anti-populism is a novel tactic though!
Baxter proceeds to scale these back to accommodate a strangely high 3.4% figure for "Other" (which excludes N.I., SNP & Plaid and probably shouldn't therefore exceed 1%.
The Tories go from 46% to 43.8%, Labour from 34% to 32.4%. LibDems from 8% to 7.6 %, etc.
As a result, the Tories are shown as winning only 377 seats, with Labour winning 196 seats, the LibDems just 2 seats, etc. Can anyone understand what is happening .... has Baxter gone wonky?
Couple of pts from 1st batch of data: 1) ComRes gives 12 pt Con lead but turnout relies on similar patterns as 2015. Could change. Looking at internals 1) Cons win on Brexit, terror and May as best PM on world stage. 2) Lab lead on NHS & family friendly policies. Conclusions: nuance of turnout key but tbf Opinium have 10 pt lead so not huge differences. Enough to suggest turnaround real but Cons ahead But you'd probably rather be the Tories. Yes for obvs reason of lead but also Labour relying on denigs that don't traditionally show up
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/868520875422867457
1. If you opposed Corbyn was it because you didn't think he could win or because you didn't want him to win with the policies he espouses?
2. If you still think the Tories will win is it not better to hope they win really big in order to get rid of Corbyn or do you still have the traditional view of limiting the Tory victory as much as possible?
I do not intend these as leading questions. Personally as someone who will vote Tory at this election I am split completely on the second. I do not find the idea of May with a massive majority at all appealing but at the same time I would love to see the back of Corbyn and a replacement who can provide real opposition throughout the whole Parliament.
Thought not.
Then when the polls did exactly what they wanted they all started panicking!
England have won this.
South Africa choke once again. Colour me shocked.
No point sugar coating this, disappointing polls for the LDs. It now seems to be a matter of the party saving as much as it can from the wreckage which may be 9 seats or probably less.
Looking at it from the outside as a friend, two observations - first, it's still soon after 2015 and though time has passed, the memory of the Coalition hasn't fully faded. 2022 will be much easier but the memory kinda lingers...(I'm still Eagles it seems).
The other aspect is the, for me, misrepresentation of the Party's position on Brexit. At no time have I heard anyone advocating ignoring the result of the 23/6 referendum or having a re-run of that referendum. That would be plain wrong - having a referendum on the outcome of the A50 negotiations seems reasonable though of course that pre-supposes some kind of agreement will be reached and there won't be a Britannia-style flounce from Theresa May.
There are of course still 12 days to go and if a week is a long time in politics, 12 days is an eternity. There's a huge amount still to happen and it may be that it won't be until after the half term break that we'll see many seriously engage with the election.
2 main parties that might get elected, both left wing, both high tax , both statist.
The only silver lining is the lib dems may move even closer to extinction and lose seats
Policy and 'who to trust' figures often don't seem to make much sense, since people react negatively to various policies but still say they trust the party that proposed it more, or they react positively to policies and say they don't trust the party proposing it.
Hopefully the Tory lead will edge up some more in the next weeks. After his patina of reasonableness and competence in this campaign, it will need a big loss for Labour to shift Corbyn, which is in their long term interest.
Is the MOE on ~15 scottish subsamples added together the same as the MOE on a 1x 1000 person scottish poll?
Assuming they were taken on the same day or over the same fieldwork dates.
Seriously, *Labour* leads the Tories on touchy-feely stuff like the NHS, for all the good that did them last time around. The Tories lead Labour on everything else, and May still polls better relative to Corbyn on best PM than Cameron did relative to Miliband. We've also still not had any poll during the campaign with the Tories on less than 42%, and just the last YouGov so far with Labour above 35%.
All of this still indicates a comfortable Conservative majority, especially in circumstances that increasingly (in England and Wales, anyway) resemble a return to the post-War two-party system. On top of which, we may remind ourselves once again that (a) the 2015 polls showed the two parties at parity, when in fact the Conservatives finished about 7% and over a hundred seats ahead of Labour, and that (b) the Conservatives have been under-estimated by the polls in almost every General Election in modern history (except for 1983, IIRC.)
A final result of something like 45:35 is still enough for about an 80 seat majority, and that's without taking into account differential swing (which is highly likely to occur, as Labour consolidates the anti-Tory vote in the South - which will be almost useless to it - whilst the Tories mop up the purple vote and direct Lab-Con working class defections in the Midlands and North.)
Given the ongoing evidence of Labour unpopularity from focus groups and canvassing returns in most of the country, it therefore currently looks like the Conservatives are likely to win a majority of something in excess of a hundred seats - leaving Labour reduced to below 200 for the first time since 1945, and also facing the prospect of further net losses resulting from boundary reform and other controversial measures. For example, unless the Government intends to bring in a compulsory ID card scheme (in which case everyone would presumably be issued with such a document for free,) the plan to bring in voter ID verification at polling stations is almost bound to disproportionately depress the turnout of low-income voters in future elections.
All things considered, the situation still doesn't favour Labour much.
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