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The @OpiniumResearch poll Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2) LD 7 (-1) UKIP 5 (nc)
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First!0
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First!
Yours,
Diane.0 -
I wonder if any polls today will have a + next to the Con number?0
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I'm revising my opinion on "But the supplementals show Labour are fucked" position
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8685154973101260800 -
It's the Lab share changing. Con is holding pretty steady.
Unlike the topsy-turvy qualifying. My pre-race ramble is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/monaco-pre-race-2017.html
Wish I'd put more on Raikkonen at 27 for the win, but there we are.0 -
FPT:
Con share with Opinium hasn't changed since the start of the campaign. Labour up at the expense of the LDs and UKIP:
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/8685083851211079730 -
My first disappeared faster than a Tory manifesto promise...RobD said:First!
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And Corbyn leads on hard working families as well.0
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Dr. Foxinsox, so did mine.0
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More input, Stephanie! More!0
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Cameron and Osborne woul've sold their grannies to be polling in the mid 40's two weeks from polling day!0
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By a random extrapolation, we will reach crossover by the exit poll.0
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including ComRes and Opinium in ELBOW:
Con 44.0
Lab 35.4
LD 8.0
UKIP 4.6
average Kantar/YG/SurveyMonkey/ComRes/Opinium Tory lead = 8.6%0 -
Isn't it the Labour share that is usually predicted wrongly in polls? I seem to recall last time the Tory share was slightly underestimated in most polls but Labour significantly overstated.Morris_Dancer said:It's the Lab share changing. Con is holding pretty steady.
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Con are not out of the woods on social care - it is going to come up for certain on Mon (C4/Sky), Wed (BBC Debate) and Fri (BBC QT).
Now Corbyn may well take a hammering but that is still huge scope for major damage to Con over social care.
Thus May (and whoever appears for Con on the BBC debate) needs to be prepared word perfect on precisely what she is going to say - and her words need to be focus grouped to the letter and agreed with Lynton Crosby.0 -
Basically, Mrs May needs to stop taking advice from TimothyMikeL said:Con are not out of the woods on social care - it is going to come up for certain on Mon (C4/Sky), Wed (BBC Debate) and Fri (BBC QT).
Now Corbyn may well take a hammering but that is still huge scope for major damage to Con over social care.
Thus May (and whoever appears for Con on the BBC debate) needs to be prepared word perfect on precisely what she is going to say - and her words need to be focus grouped to the letter and agreed with Lynton Crosby.0 -
I still cannot believe any Tories were ever concerned. It's Jeremy Corbyn, stupids!!0
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Mr. L, agree entirely. Both May and Corbyn should face a serious challenge.
Mr. Tang, yes, I believe so. Minor party numbers were pretty accurately predicted by pollsters last time.0 -
I've seen headlines that are less misleading, I must say.0
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ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
You are very naughty, aren't you?TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
Oh.. KLAXON!0
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I might just do the morning thread on sub samples.RobD said:
You are very naughty, aren't you?TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
SNP fading...TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
F1: not touching this myself (backed with tiny stakes at 4.5), but Betfair has Ferrari at 2.7 to win the Constructors'. They should, all else being equal, take a chunk out of Mercedes' 8 point lead and probably convert it into a Ferrari lead at the race tomorrow. Worth considering if you haven't touched the market yet.0
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From the previous fred;Pong said:
Lamb is very lucky with the way the national campaigns have gone.foxinsoxuk said:
Dementia tax and mental health are ideal policies for him. I think he is safe.Pulpstar said:
I'm afraid Lamb looks very much for the chop based on these numbers.surbiton said:
You mean like the Tories piling up votes in the East of England and not gaining a single seat.AndyJS said:
Probably a Tory majority of about 100, with Labour piling up votes in safe seats.TheScreamingEagles said:Opinium
Con 45 (-1) Lab 35 (+2)
FIELDWORK TUES AND WED OF THIS WEEK
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-opinium-idUKKBN18N0Q8
I'm not sure improved poll ratings for the LD's - and renewed national media focus on Farron's campaign/manifesto would actually help him, tbh.
North Norfolk shouldn't be a toss up, but it probably is.0 -
No.RobD said:I wonder if any polls today will have a + next to the Con number?
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Con gain all the Glasgow seats!foxinsoxuk said:
SNP fading...TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
The GE itself, I presume.RobD said:I wonder if any polls today will have a + next to the Con number?
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Bootle take Con!TheScreamingEagles said:
Con gain all the Glasgow seats!foxinsoxuk said:
SNP fading...TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
In which way is it misleading?ThreeQuidder said:I've seen headlines that are less misleading, I must say.
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Evening all PB'ers. Half time in the cup final with the reds doing better than expected is a great moment to indulge in some political betting:)
Anyone think the nationalist vote in scotland might be in for a bashing? and if so will it be Ruth who cleans up or Jezza?0 -
Jezza leads on policy, and most say what matters is policy not leadership. That table does not favour the Tories much.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Would a fair summary of the article be: Maybe not, probably not, almost certainly not, but maybe it is, maybe Corbyn was always this popular but people didn't know it, we'll never know either way. ?CarlottaVance said:Is the Labour surge real?
http://www.noiseofthecrowd.com/labour-surge-real/0 -
Dr. Foxinsox, self-reporting is notoriously inaccurate.
People liked Michael Howard's policies. Until they learnt they were Conservative.0 -
Labour leads on policy.foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza leads on policy, and most say what matters is policy not leadership. That table does not favour the Tories much.CarlottaVance said:
May leads on leadership.
Tories win the election.
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I think last week's wobble has shown just how foolish May was to call this election.
Politics is an unpredictable game, and giving Corbyn even the chance to become PM before the most important negotiations this country will perhaps ever face reeked of party before country.
Even if the Tories win handily, it was a gamble not worth taking.0 -
The comparison period is inappropriate, as is the variable being compared.TheScreamingEagles said:
In which way is it misleading?ThreeQuidder said:I've seen headlines that are less misleading, I must say.
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Probably both and that will help SNPDennisBets said:Evening all PB'ers. Half time in the cup final with the reds doing better than expected is a great moment to indulge in some political betting:)
Anyone think the nationalist vote in scotland might be in for a bashing? and if so will it be Ruth who cleans up or Jezza?0 -
The Opinium one was way more fun.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
People are answering question two completely dishonestly. Or Ed Miliband would have also been at ~ 45% in the polls judging by the manifestos of 2015 and 17.SouthamObserver said:
Labour leads on policy.foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza leads on policy, and most say what matters is policy not leadership. That table does not favour the Tories much.CarlottaVance said:
May leads on leadership.
Tories win the election.0 -
I think there is little value in SCon gains, or SLD. The value seems to be on SNP holds/gains, and SLAB ones, and may be determined how SLAB voters break in SCon/SNP marginals. I think this will be anti Tory more than expected.DennisBets said:Evening all PB'ers. Half time in the cup final with the reds doing better than expected is a great moment to indulge in some political betting:)
Anyone think the nationalist vote in scotland might be in for a bashing? and if so will it be Ruth who cleans up or Jezza?0 -
A number of us have stayed fairly quiet over the past few days. My initial view was any majority over 40/50 would do. I was hoping for higher but overall my view has not changed.SouthamObserver said:I still cannot believe any Tories were ever concerned. It's Jeremy Corbyn, stupids!!
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All we need is some false consciousness unwind between now and election day and the Tories will lose their majority.0
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Mr. Pulpstar, I'd take the opposite view. Look how May has done with a fair wind, all the advantages and choosing the timing. She's doing badly.
Imagine she'd gone into the election due to necessity, polls level-pegging, and after negotiating to leave the EU. She'd be losing right now.0 -
Now now - you don't wonder at all.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
Although I'm glad I got on as much as WillHill allowed on Con >9.50
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these polls are just nonsense really aren't they if they can be so totally different?Alistair said:
The Opinium one was way more fun.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?Theuniondivvie said:Utterly meaningless of course.
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Anyway, I'm going to have to go and do some work. Let's hope the Monaco Grand Prix is a boring procession from start to finish, with no safety car and Raikkonen winning.0
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Oh no, the 45% and 46% scores, CCHQ must be shitting itself at such poor polling!0
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Wrong Jezza leads on 'we like goodies' - that is not the same as policy!foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza leads on policy, and most say what matters is policy not leadership. That table does not favour the Tories much.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Yes. Subsamples have no value, except perhaps humour.houndtang said:
these polls are just nonsense really aren't they if they can be so totally different?Alistair said:
The Opinium one was way more fun.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
I find it really hard to believe that people of my age & older have forgotten what the hard left are really like. We've seen them close up and personal before. They frighten me, and I'd love Labour to be a party I can vote for.MikeL said:Con are not out of the woods on social care - it is going to come up for certain on Mon (C4/Sky), Wed (BBC Debate) and Fri (BBC QT).
Now Corbyn may well take a hammering but that is still huge scope for major damage to Con over social care.
Thus May (and whoever appears for Con on the BBC debate) needs to be prepared word perfect on precisely what she is going to say - and her words need to be focus grouped to the letter and agreed with Lynton Crosby.0 -
The Brexit bill cleared both parliament and the Lords unamended.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, I'd take the opposite view. Look how May has done with a fair wind, all the advantages and choosing the timing. She's doing badly.
Imagine she'd gone into the election due to necessity, polls level-pegging, and after negotiating to leave the EU. She'd be losing right now.0 -
This has been one of the best PB flounce fests in ages
From tories expecting 200 majorities crapping their going to lose to leftes who labelled Jezza a doonkey saying hes not that bad.0 -
https://twitter.com/ComRes/status/868512628360056833foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza leads on policy, and most say what matters is policy not leadership. That table does not favour the Tories much.CarlottaVance said:0 -
At the start of the campaign, I was hoping/expecting to see at least one Scottish sub-sample with Labour fourth/Lib Dems third.Alistair said:
The Opinium one was way more fun.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?
Tim Farron has been such a disappointment.0 -
All elections are a gamble. This one less than most. But I think you ignore the extent to which 1) she was already being handicapped by being tied to the manifesto of the last election and lack of a personal mandate and 2) anticipating being severely limited in Brexit negotiating freedom by the small size of the existing majority as well as the difficulty of the culmination of Brexit likely to coincide with the scheduled next election.Pulpstar said:I think last week's wobble has shown just how foolish May was to call this election.
Politics is an unpredictable game, and giving Corbyn even the chance to become PM before the most important negotiations this country will perhaps ever face reeked of party before country.
Even if the Tories win handily, it was a gamble not worth taking.
So a gamble, yes, but a gamble with a lot to gain.0 -
I think the polls suggest the Tory vote is holding well among the older profile.AnneJGP said:
I find it really hard to believe that people of my age & older have forgotten what the hard left are really like. We've seen them close up and personal before. They frighten me, and I'd love Labour to be a party I can vote for.MikeL said:Con are not out of the woods on social care - it is going to come up for certain on Mon (C4/Sky), Wed (BBC Debate) and Fri (BBC QT).
Now Corbyn may well take a hammering but that is still huge scope for major damage to Con over social care.
Thus May (and whoever appears for Con on the BBC debate) needs to be prepared word perfect on precisely what she is going to say - and her words need to be focus grouped to the letter and agreed with Lynton Crosby.0 -
Actually they do. But you NEED to look at more than one.ThreeQuidder said:
Yes. Subsamples have no value, except perhaps humour.houndtang said:
these polls are just nonsense really aren't they if they can be so totally different?Alistair said:
The Opinium one was way more fun.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?
James Kelly of another blog has the following :
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
SNP 42.3% (-2.7)
Conservatives 29.0% (+5.0)
Labour 21.7% (-0.5)
Liberal Democrats 4.7% (-2.7)
That looks about right, he uses both Scottish subsamples and real polls.0 -
I was hoping for another SeanT meltdown tonight... But doesn't look like it's going to happen does it?Alanbrooke said:This has been one of the best PB flounce fests in ages
From tories expecting 200 majorities crapping their going to lose to leftes who labelled Jezza a dnkey saying hes not that bad.0 -
Populism never makes sense, but wins votes.felix said:
Wrong Jezza leads on 'we like goodies' - that is not the same as policy!foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza leads on policy, and most say what matters is policy not leadership. That table does not favour the Tories much.CarlottaVance said:
May's anti-populism is a novel tactic though!0 -
We all know that leadership is the key factor. Mediocrity beats catastrophe every single time.Pulpstar said:
People are answering question two completely dishonestly. Or Ed Miliband would have also been at ~ 45% in the polls judging by the manifestos of 2015 and 17.SouthamObserver said:
Labour leads on policy.foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza leads on policy, and most say what matters is policy not leadership. That table does not favour the Tories much.CarlottaVance said:
May leads on leadership.
Tories win the election.
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These are subsamples. Subsamples have huge margins of errorhoundtang said:
these polls are just nonsense really aren't they if they can be so totally different?Alistair said:
The Opinium one was way more fun.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
I've tried to input ComRes' numbers into Electoral Calculus, including an estimated figure of 3% for the Greens to enable all five of the listed Parties' boxes to be completed.
Baxter proceeds to scale these back to accommodate a strangely high 3.4% figure for "Other" (which excludes N.I., SNP & Plaid and probably shouldn't therefore exceed 1%.
The Tories go from 46% to 43.8%, Labour from 34% to 32.4%. LibDems from 8% to 7.6 %, etc.
As a result, the Tories are shown as winning only 377 seats, with Labour winning 196 seats, the LibDems just 2 seats, etc. Can anyone understand what is happening .... has Baxter gone wonky?0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRHetRTOD1Q Will be on his political headstone come June 9th.TheScreamingEagles said:
At the start of the campaign, I was hoping/expecting to see at least one Scottish sub-sample with Labour fourth/Lib Dems third.Alistair said:
The Opinium one was way more fun.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?
Tim Farron has been such a disappointment.0 -
@Keiranpedley:
Couple of pts from 1st batch of data: 1) ComRes gives 12 pt Con lead but turnout relies on similar patterns as 2015. Could change. Looking at internals 1) Cons win on Brexit, terror and May as best PM on world stage. 2) Lab lead on NHS & family friendly policies. Conclusions: nuance of turnout key but tbf Opinium have 10 pt lead so not huge differences. Enough to suggest turnaround real but Cons ahead But you'd probably rather be the Tories. Yes for obvs reason of lead but also Labour relying on denigs that don't traditionally show up0 -
I've been concerned about it since the GE was called.SouthamObserver said:I still cannot believe any Tories were ever concerned. It's Jeremy Corbyn, stupids!!
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Lots of folk fixated on Indy > Brexit, howzabout sum Brexit > Indy.
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/8685208754228674570 -
Don't worry, plenty of time yet for SeanT to wobble like a viagra deprived jellyfish in an earthquake.GIN1138 said:
I was hoping for another SeanT meltdown tonight... But doesn't look like it's going to happen does it?Alanbrooke said:This has been one of the best PB flounce fests in ages
From tories expecting 200 majorities crapping their going to lose to leftes who labelled Jezza a dnkey saying hes not that bad.0 -
Just a warning, Jezza's support for the terrorists speech went down well below the line in the Daily Mail comments. So could be potentially a bounce from that.0
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lolPulpstar said:
< snip >TheScreamingEagles said:
At the start of the campaign, I was hoping/expecting to see at least one Scottish sub-sample with Labour fourth/Lib Dems third.Alistair said:
The Opinium one was way more fun.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?
Tim Farron has been such a disappointment.
Will be on his political headstone come June 9th.0 -
May's campaign is the political equivalent of The Producers.foxinsoxuk said:
Populism never makes sense, but wins votes.felix said:
Wrong Jezza leads on 'we like goodies' - that is not the same as policy!foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza leads on policy, and most say what matters is policy not leadership. That table does not favour the Tories much.CarlottaVance said:
May's anti-populism is a novel tactic though!0 -
There are a couple of questions I am really interested in getting answers to from Labour supporters.Alanbrooke said:This has been one of the best PB flounce fests in ages
From tories expecting 200 majorities crapping their going to lose to leftes who labelled Jezza a doonkey saying hes not that bad.
1. If you opposed Corbyn was it because you didn't think he could win or because you didn't want him to win with the policies he espouses?
2. If you still think the Tories will win is it not better to hope they win really big in order to get rid of Corbyn or do you still have the traditional view of limiting the Tory victory as much as possible?
I do not intend these as leading questions. Personally as someone who will vote Tory at this election I am split completely on the second. I do not find the idea of May with a massive majority at all appealing but at the same time I would love to see the back of Corbyn and a replacement who can provide real opposition throughout the whole Parliament.0 -
Have you allowed for the fact that probably close on 20% of those voting at this GE have already done so?SandyRentool said:By a random extrapolation, we will reach crossover by the exit poll.
Thought not.0 -
The funny thing is that when the polls were showing huge Tory landslides, a large proportion of posters were saying it made them uneasy and wanting the polls to be a bit closer to "scare people" into voting (against Corbyn). With the possible positive side effect that if he did OK then Labour wouldn't be able to get rid of him.Alanbrooke said:This has been one of the best PB flounce fests in ages
From tories expecting 200 majorities crapping their going to lose to leftes who labelled Jezza a doonkey saying hes not that bad.
Then when the polls did exactly what they wanted they all started panicking!0 -
Feck me.
England have won this.
South Africa choke once again. Colour me shocked.0 -
Evening all
No point sugar coating this, disappointing polls for the LDs. It now seems to be a matter of the party saving as much as it can from the wreckage which may be 9 seats or probably less.
Looking at it from the outside as a friend, two observations - first, it's still soon after 2015 and though time has passed, the memory of the Coalition hasn't fully faded. 2022 will be much easier but the memory kinda lingers...(I'm still Eagles it seems).
The other aspect is the, for me, misrepresentation of the Party's position on Brexit. At no time have I heard anyone advocating ignoring the result of the 23/6 referendum or having a re-run of that referendum. That would be plain wrong - having a referendum on the outcome of the A50 negotiations seems reasonable though of course that pre-supposes some kind of agreement will be reached and there won't be a Britannia-style flounce from Theresa May.
There are of course still 12 days to go and if a week is a long time in politics, 12 days is an eternity. There's a huge amount still to happen and it may be that it won't be until after the half term break that we'll see many seriously engage with the election.0 -
Dunno. Great name though!DennisBets said:Evening all PB'ers. Half time in the cup final with the reds doing better than expected is a great moment to indulge in some political betting:)
Anyone think the nationalist vote in scotland might be in for a bashing? and if so will it be Ruth who cleans up or Jezza?
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They've done it again. The Saffers have choked.0
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What if you add the two subsamples together?alex. said:
These are subsamples. Subsamples have huge margins of errorhoundtang said:
these polls are just nonsense really aren't they if they can be so totally different?Alistair said:
The Opinium one was way more fun.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
I think that Corbyns fate is unaffected by the size of his PLP. The battle will be the same either outcome. A larger PLP will have more sane wing though, and avoids the risk of Lab disappearing into a Trotskyist rump. They will have more to fight on for.Richard_Tyndall said:
There are a couple of questions I am really interested in getting answers to from Labour supporters.Alanbrooke said:This has been one of the best PB flounce fests in ages
From tories expecting 200 majorities crapping their going to lose to leftes who labelled Jezza a doonkey saying hes not that bad.
1. If you opposed Corbyn was it because you didn't think he could win or because you didn't want him to win with the policies he espouses?
2. If you still think the Tories will win is it not better to hope they win really big in order to get rid of Corbyn or do you still have the traditional view of limiting the Tory victory as much as possible?
I do not intend these as leading questions. Personally as someone who will vote Tory at this election I am split completely on the second. I do not find the idea of May with a massive majority at all appealing but at the same time I would love to see the back of Corbyn and a replacement who can provide real opposition throughout the whole Parliament.0 -
As a Brit, I always manage to convince myself that we are the only sporting nation that routinely chokes. But I do have to remind myself that, at least in cricket, both SA and NZ also have that reputation.TheScreamingEagles said:Feck me.
England have won this.
South Africa choke once again. Colour me shocked.0 -
I would like a debate on why dementia is not considered a medical issue rather than a social one. Does the cause of the dementia play a role, for example it was acquired as a result of heart failure during an operation rather than just age?0
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An army of keyboard warriors running to his defence does not an electorate make....Pulpstar said:Just a warning, Jezza's support for the terrorists speech went down well below the line in the Daily Mail comments. So could be potentially a bounce from that.
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This reminds me that because they're doing badly in Scotland, Labour are always actually doing very slightly better in England than the headline poll figures state.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?0 -
Well I found it pretty unedifying stuff. But I never take myself as the entirety of British public opinion.MarqueeMark said:
An army of keyboard warriors running to his defence does not an electorate make....Pulpstar said:Just a warning, Jezza's support for the terrorists speech went down well below the line in the Daily Mail comments. So could be potentially a bounce from that.
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a completely depressing election
2 main parties that might get elected, both left wing, both high tax , both statist.
The only silver lining is the lib dems may move even closer to extinction and lose seats0 -
25% lead was already pretty unbelievable. The worry is direction of travel and if this is the worst of it, which after seeing significant sub 10 leads is not a given.
Policy and 'who to trust' figures often don't seem to make much sense, since people react negatively to various policies but still say they trust the party that proposed it more, or they react positively to policies and say they don't trust the party proposing it.
Hopefully the Tory lead will edge up some more in the next weeks. After his patina of reasonableness and competence in this campaign, it will need a big loss for Labour to shift Corbyn, which is in their long term interest.0 -
Hmm. That's an interesting question.paulyork64 said:
What if you add the two subsamples together?alex. said:
These are subsamples. Subsamples have huge margins of errorhoundtang said:
these polls are just nonsense really aren't they if they can be so totally different?Alistair said:
The Opinium one was way more fun.TheScreamingEagles said:ComRes Scottish sub-sample
SNP 40% Con 35% Lab 17% LD 5%
I wonder if this Scottish subsample will excite the people that were excited by the Opinium Scottish subsample?
Is the MOE on ~15 scottish subsamples added together the same as the MOE on a 1x 1000 person scottish poll?
Assuming they were taken on the same day or over the same fieldwork dates.0 -
If Trump and Brexit have taught us anything, it's always to keep in mind that our assumptions might be wrong. That said...SouthamObserver said:I still cannot believe any Tories were ever concerned. It's Jeremy Corbyn, stupids!!
Well they would say that, wouldn't they?foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza leads on policy, and most say what matters is policy not leadership. That table does not favour the Tories much.CarlottaVance said:
Seriously, *Labour* leads the Tories on touchy-feely stuff like the NHS, for all the good that did them last time around. The Tories lead Labour on everything else, and May still polls better relative to Corbyn on best PM than Cameron did relative to Miliband. We've also still not had any poll during the campaign with the Tories on less than 42%, and just the last YouGov so far with Labour above 35%.
All of this still indicates a comfortable Conservative majority, especially in circumstances that increasingly (in England and Wales, anyway) resemble a return to the post-War two-party system. On top of which, we may remind ourselves once again that (a) the 2015 polls showed the two parties at parity, when in fact the Conservatives finished about 7% and over a hundred seats ahead of Labour, and that (b) the Conservatives have been under-estimated by the polls in almost every General Election in modern history (except for 1983, IIRC.)
A final result of something like 45:35 is still enough for about an 80 seat majority, and that's without taking into account differential swing (which is highly likely to occur, as Labour consolidates the anti-Tory vote in the South - which will be almost useless to it - whilst the Tories mop up the purple vote and direct Lab-Con working class defections in the Midlands and North.)
Given the ongoing evidence of Labour unpopularity from focus groups and canvassing returns in most of the country, it therefore currently looks like the Conservatives are likely to win a majority of something in excess of a hundred seats - leaving Labour reduced to below 200 for the first time since 1945, and also facing the prospect of further net losses resulting from boundary reform and other controversial measures. For example, unless the Government intends to bring in a compulsory ID card scheme (in which case everyone would presumably be issued with such a document for free,) the plan to bring in voter ID verification at polling stations is almost bound to disproportionately depress the turnout of low-income voters in future elections.
All things considered, the situation still doesn't favour Labour much.0 -
It is a medical condition, but the treatment is essentially supportive nursing care rather than curative.nichomar said:I would like a debate on why dementia is not considered a medical issue rather than a social one. Does the cause of the dementia play a role, for example it was acquired as a result of heart failure during an operation rather than just age?
Stroke is another condition managed much the same, as is endstage osteoporosis or arthritis. Indeed increasingly patients have elements of all of these.0