politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which election will we have in 2015? Election 1979 or Elect
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which election will we have in 2015? Election 1979 or Election 1997?
Tomorrow, BBC Parliament will be replaying the 1979 general election programme, as a build up to the funeral of Baroness Thatcher on Wednesday. The 1979 election is, to date, the only general election in modern electoral history (since 1950) to have been triggered by a vote of no confidence in the government and the polling (done by Gallup) makes for interesting reading for the Liberal Democrats.
0
Comments
-
1983 - A split vote on one side, lets the other side.
David Cameron = Michael Foot.
Nigel Farage = David Owen.0 -
Re the Lib Dems, my expectation their will be a strong correlation between the seats the Lib Dems retain, and the further south you go down the country.0
-
Josias FPT
The easiest answer with strategic threat is to drop it from the air.0 -
You maybe interested in the front of the TimesY0kel said:Josias FPT
The easiest answer with strategic threat is to drop it from the air.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76237/the_times_friday_12th_april_2013.html
0 -
We will have Election 2015
0 -
I so agree with this
Laura @oh_morris
All political disagreement should be fought out in the charts. PMQ's should be a dance off Run DMC style.0 -
I read that the BBC will play part of Ding Dong the witch is dead on its chart show.0
-
The Mail's Christmas has come early:
*Diana
*Immigration
*Left wing conspiracy
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76231/the_daily_mail_friday_12th_april_2013.html
The Black Lubyanka won't be happy..0 -
It'd be a terrible dad-dancing shuffle, although perhaps one of the older generation, maybe Dennis Skinner might put in a performance like Christopher Walken in FBS's Weapon of Choice video!TheScreamingEagles said:I so agree with this
Laura @oh_morris
All political disagreement should be fought out in the charts. PMQ's should be a dance off Run DMC style.
0 -
The Sun has found an outraged Munchkin:
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76236/the_sun_friday_12th_april_2013.html0 -
Gives me an excuse to post thisTwistedFireStopper said:
It'd be a terrible dad-dancing shuffle, although perhaps one of the older generation, maybe Dennis Skinner might put in a performance like Christopher Walken in FBS's Weapon of Choice video!TheScreamingEagles said:I so agree with this
Laura @oh_morris
All political disagreement should be fought out in the charts. PMQ's should be a dance off Run DMC style.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fNMFwu_gAM0 -
Easiest once you can package the weapon. Do we have any idea (i.e. in the public domain) how near they are to packaging their nukes? And could they get way with a test firing, which would certainly be detected by the international community, or would they have to fire it in anger untested?Y0kel said:Josias FPT
The easiest answer with strategic threat is to drop it from the air.
And how would the international community react to a successful test firing of (say) a Taepdong 1 or 3 with a nuclear payload?
I'd just like to thank you once more for your updates. They are always informative and useful.0 -
"Almost immediately, the Liberals went into freefall in the polls (dipping into single digits a mere three months later) with Labour starting to rally.
A situation remarkably similar to what has been happening to the Liberal Democrats since joining the coalition"
Perhaps they like to talk about how coalitions and cooperation are good things, but their supporters don't like them in practice?0 -
Election 1979:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exWDguPklGg
Election 1997:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JttnDggWb80 -
I reported it on here sure. Of course apparently their use was a red line but the Syrians on both sides have played things to the full by using less lethal brews and claims on both sides.TheScreamingEagles said:
You maybe interested in the front of the TimesY0kel said:Josias FPT
The easiest answer with strategic threat is to drop it from the air.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76237/the_times_friday_12th_april_2013.html0 -
Neither, we will either have election 1992 (with Cameron as Major) or election 1970 (with Miliband as Heath)0
-
Latest German poll:
Infratest dimap:
CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Green: 15%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 4%
Pirates: 2%
Others: 3%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm0 -
On the LDs, 1979 no question, they won 13% in 1979 and 11 seats, down 2, considering the LDs now have almost 60 seats such a result would still be terrible for them!0
-
Simon Cowell expresses some admiration for Thatcher, but admits he has never voted
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/04/11/britains-got-talent-simon-cowell-voted-election_n_3063657.html?utm_hp_ref=uk-entertainment0 -
1983 - Wrong, SDP voters polled preferred Thatcher to Foot and Kinnock, UKIP voters clearly prefer Cameron to Miliband overall!0
-
Investigative journalism at its best.CarlottaVance said:
The Sun has found an outraged Munchkin:
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76236/the_sun_friday_12th_april_2013.html0 -
Seems reasonable. Labour do appear to have at least more candidates down south than last time (in my area anyway), with the LDs fewer, so even if a lot of them are paper candidates, percentage wise they should do better, and it'll be interesting to see if they do manage to eat into the LD seat numbers a little.TheScreamingEagles said:Re the Lib Dems, my expectation their will be a strong correlation between the seats the Lib Dems retain, and the further south you go down the country.
0 -
Given the film is 74 years old its pretty impressive! There can't be many Munchkins left!old_labour said:Investigative journalism at its best.
CarlottaVance said:The Sun has found an outraged Munchkin:
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76236/the_sun_friday_12th_april_2013.html
0 -
Unfortunately I think the most apposite comparison is probably going to be February 1974, since the country seems to be heading back towards its bad pre-Thatcher habit of burying its head in the sand and hoping problems will go away if they are ignored.0
-
It was Steel rather than Thorpe who agreed the lib-lab pact0
-
Look on the bright side.RichardNabavi said:Unfortunately I think the most apposite comparison is probably going to be February 1974, since the country seems to be heading back towards its bad pre-Thatcher habit of burying its head in the sand and hoping problems will go away if they are ignored.
If it is going to be like Feb 1974, then in 2020 we'll get a Margaret Thatcheresque PM.0 -
Joy! The Royalties from Ding Dong ultimately go to Rupert Murdoch....0
-
Sales of I'M in love up 700,000% apparently, I think the NotSensibles will be raising a glass to Maggie next week if any of them are still around!0
-
We've got a PM who is quite capable of doing what needs to be done, and has made an excellent start . Unfortunately he doesn't have a majority and there are a large number of idiots who should be on his own side who are instead trying to ensure he doesn't get a majority in 2015.TheScreamingEagles said:Look on the bright side.
If it is going to be like Feb 1974, then in 2020 we'll get a Margaret Thatcheresque PM.
But, yes, a Tory majority in 2020 is highly likely, if the party comes to its senses. That's a big if, of course.
0 -
No one would be looking at it; they'd be looking at the financial markets as investors wondered whether the change signalled a softening of resolve.tim said:
But of course you won't take even baby steps to resolving Cameron's problems.
How different would the top of the Tory party look if Osborne was replaced by May?
0 -
It depends on what you consider packaging. The science of a sophisticated thermonuclear weapon on a missile is the ultimate along with man portable systems but you can get some fairly rough gear into a fat bomb with less development.JosiasJessop said:
Easiest once you can package the weapon. Do we have any idea (i.e. in the public domain) how near they are to packaging their nukes? And could they get way with a test firing, which would certainly be detected by the international community, or would they have to fire it in anger untested?Y0kel said:Josias FPT
The easiest answer with strategic threat is to drop it from the air.
And how would the international community react to a successful test firing of (say) a Taepdong 1 or 3 with a nuclear payload?
I'd just like to thank you once more for your updates. They are always informative and useful.
The answer to your question is that the West apparently doesn't know because the North Koreans have actually been quite cautious with their program, it has never been full pelt. Instead they've sneaked along and used the threat of a test or progress as a political weapon.
Whether that caution is due to technological issues, funding or another combination of reasons is unsure but verifiably breaching a line might invite a reaction by force that the North may not be able to afford before they get a critical mass (a moving line defined by others) of nuclear capability.
If they fired a weapon with a genuine nuclear payload they'd be playing with fire just by launching it and the risk of it going wrong. it would invite a response that might finish theor regime or alternatively create an immunity.
The North Koreans think about survival as a regime first.0 -
@tim - Of course Danny Alexander has been outstanding as a minister (I confess I didn't expect that at all). He'd certainly be welcome in any government.0
-
What a hoot. - Does Connie Francis still own the royalties to “Who's Sorry Now”?CarlottaVance said:Joy! The Royalties from Ding Dong ultimately go to Rupert Murdoch....
0 -
I take it 'outstanding as a minister' includes more than just the fact he's generally being among the most loyal LDs in government?RichardNabavi said:@tim - Of course Danny Alexander has been outstanding as a minister (I confess I didn't expect that at all). He'd certainly be welcome in any government.
0 -
I am grateful for the mass introduction of the Labour and Co-operative parties in most Labour candidacies in Norfolk.I think this is a good example of the co-operative influence,still very strong at stations,in villages and towns.A greater environmental influence to protect some of the most beautiful places on the planet-but dont tell anyone-the Norfolk Broads and Cley reserve are but two.
“The earth is the mother of all people, and all people should have equal rights upon it.”
Chief Joseph, 18790 -
Well, not undermining a government in which you are one of the most senior ministers (he's one of the 'quad', after all) is a key part of the job description, isn't it? But he's also been effective in the classic Chief Secretary role, and he's proved a good communicator. He doesn't whinge and moan, but he states the choices quite clearly and explains why the government has made the choices it has made. I also think he's one of the few LibDems who has really understood how to remain separate from the Tories without trashing the coalition (Steve Webb is another). Since coalitions are what the LibDems are all about, that's a rather crucial skill.kle4 said:
I take it 'outstanding as a minister' includes more than just the fact he's generally being among the most loyal LDs in government?RichardNabavi said:@tim - Of course Danny Alexander has been outstanding as a minister (I confess I didn't expect that at all). He'd certainly be welcome in any government.
0 -
If you can, well worth buying the Times tomorrow for their magazine interview with Nate Silver.
From a betting perspective
Although Republicans portray him as a liberal, Silver defines himself as “libertarian on social issues and centrist on economic issues. In the UK that might make me a Tory. Here I’m probably more in the Democrat sphere as Republicans have become so conservative.”
So what happens next? Will we live to see the age of Hillary? “Hillary would be a formidable candidate if she runs,” he says. “People should not neglect the fact that she has one of the most persuasive people in the world as her husband. I’m sure Bill would like a third Clinton term.”
On the Republican side he predicts a “spectacularly interesting primary”, filled with Senator Marco Rubio, Congressman Paul Ryan and Governor Chris Christie. “You could also see them nominating a nutcase.”
0 -
It is, but it's good to know there are other reasons besides loyalty making someone outstanding as opposed to merely not causing trouble.RichardNabavi said:
Well, not undermining a government in which you are one of the most senior ministers (he's one of the 'quad', after all) is a key part of the job description, isn't it?kle4 said:
I take it 'outstanding as a minister' includes more than just the fact he's generally being among the most loyal LDs in government?RichardNabavi said:@tim - Of course Danny Alexander has been outstanding as a minister (I confess I didn't expect that at all). He'd certainly be welcome in any government.
0 -
Labour had 13 years to introduce STV.....tim said:@Richard
You're far more comfortable with the Lib Dems than you ever would be with Burley and Dorries and Bone holding you to ransom.
So your love of FPTP depends not on scraping over the line but a big enough majority to exclude your lunatic wing
And given Cameron isn't even good enough to get boundary changes through that seems unlikely.
Why not cut your losses and support STV?0 -
STV is a hell of a lot more defensible than AV, that is for sure.tim said:
Why not cut your losses and support STV?
I'd assumed electoral reform was dead following the referendum, but who knows? If it's the price the LibDems demand in order to join a Tory-led coalition next time, that would be an interesting conundrum. Whether the party would accept it is highly dubious, though.0 -
0
-
Great edition of Have I Got News for You tonight with Brian Blessed
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01ry872/Have_I_Got_News_for_You_Series_45_Episode_2/0 -
.0
-
-
'"I'm in love with Margaret Thatcher now no 7 overall (no 2 on Amazon...)0
-
-
Murdoch owns the rights to Ding Dong? Does that make him the REAL Wizard of Aus?0
-
timtim said:@RichardNabavi
Like the £245 Billion extra borrowing wasnt a softening of resolve but having a vaguely competent Chancellor would be?
Let's put this simply.
Osborne inherited an annual government spend of £600 bn with revenues of £450 bn.
To balance the books he needed to borrow £150 bn each year, or £1 for every £4 he spent.
This amount borrowed each year is the 'deficit'. The deficit amount is added to total government net debt.
Osborne has already reduced this annual deficit by 33%, which means he only needs to borrow £1 in every £6 he spends from now on.
Even so, he is still adding to the overall debt of the country and will continue to do so until the deficit is eliminated.
£245 bn has been added to borrowing estimates over a five year period as a result of growth falling below original expectations.
This additional borrowing is fully compatible with Osborne's fiscal mandate of eliminating the deficit over a five year rolling period and his plan to reduce net debt as a percentage of GDP at the end of this period.
In other words even though interim borrowing will increase over the period the deficit is still being reduced and eliminated and the debt partially paid down and reduced as a percentage of GDP.
These figures are of course simplifications and do not, for example, take account of inflation, but as an overall model they remain adequate for the purposes of this discussion.
So claiming that Osborne is borrowing "more than Brown and Darling" or "more than he originally planned" without setting the context is nothing more than deliberate misrepresentation of the real state of the economy and the competence with which it is being managed.
0 -
TSE - Nate Silver sounds not too dissimilar to me politically, and I would agree with his analysis at this stage!0
-
"Portugal and Ireland are to be granted an extra seven years to pay back their emergency bailout loans."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22116270
Oh there's a shock, original estimates on figures/dates/recovery have not turned out to be anywhere close to what was thought.0 -
It was an MGM film, and Tams-Witmark own the copyright on theatrical performances.CarlottaVance said:Joy! The Royalties from Ding Dong ultimately go to Rupert Murdoch....
If Murdoch (presumably thru Fox) owns the copyright, how has that transpired?
Do they own Tams-Witmark?
0 -
Ding, dong the rich get fed.CarlottaVance said:Joy! The Royalties from Ding Dong ultimately go to Rupert Murdoch....
How Thatcherite!
0 -
The outlook for the global economy is deteriorating, as revealed by the recent leak of the IMF's latest growth forecasts.kle4 said:"Portugal and Ireland are to be granted an extra seven years to pay back their emergency bailout loans."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22116270
Oh there's a shock, original estimates on figures/dates/recovery have not turned out to be anywhere close to what was thought.
Even though International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that growth forecasts would not be revealed until the Spring Meetings on April 16th, media leaks are indicating that the Fund has cut growth forecasts for both the US and the global economy.
The IMF is cutting the estimate for the US gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year to 1.7%, from the previously forecasted 2.0%, according to a draft report of the World Economic Outlook obtained by Bloomberg.
The document apparently explains that the recently implemented fiscal tightening is expected to temporarily restrain consumption.
Global growth was also revised down to 3.4% for 2013, compared to the 3.5% original estimate.
The Eurozone didn't see it's target changed as the estimate remains for a contraction of 0.2% this year.
“The road to recovery in the advanced economies will remain bumpy. The weak ending to economic activity in 2012 and the sluggish beinning in 2013 highlight that important brakes remain in place,” the draft reportedly said.
The problems of Portugal and Ireland are not solely linked to the performance of the global economy and the extensions to their loan repayment periods can be justified on other grounds, but it is still important to set the decisions against this global background.
It is also important to note the relatively better prospects for the UK economy. At present, growth forecasts for the UK are being revised up rather than down against global trends.0 -
If 'Ding Dong' and 'I'm in love' in top 10 with 1, probably 'Ding Dong' at No 1 and after Meryl Streep's Oscar for 'Iron lady' what other politician can have had an Oscar and top 10 singles!0
-
I did a little digging. Tams-Witmark licence the script and scores rather than recordings so aren't relevant.Tim_B said:
It was an MGM film, and Tams-Witmark own the copyright on theatrical performances.CarlottaVance said:Joy! The Royalties from Ding Dong ultimately go to Rupert Murdoch....
If Murdoch (presumably thru Fox) owns the copyright, how has that transpired?
Do they own Tams-Witmark?
Fox does have a worldwide distribution deal, but aiui, Time Warner own the pre-1986 MGM library and so they would get the cash. (MGM's library rights are rather byzantine in ownership now)0 -
"James Callaghan (now Prime Minister after the resignation of Harold Wilson) along with Jeremy Thorpe (the leader of the Liberal Party) agreed the so called “Lib – Lab pact” to ensure that the government would survive."
Thorpe was no longer Liberal leader by 1977 - it was David Steel who agreed the Lib-Lab pact. Indeed it was a trademark Steel move.0 -
Fox does have a worldwide distribution deal, but aiui, Time Warner own the pre-1986 MGM library and so they would get the cash. (MGM's library rights are rather byzantine in ownership now)
That's my - admittedly murky - understanding too.
For all I know, Murdoch may be the ultimate beneficiary, but I have yet to see a convincing explanation to show this.
0 -
TimB - Yes, ironic that the left are filling Murdoch's coffers while the right are filling the coffers of an anarchist punk rock band!0
-
Korea: Have the Kims done it again?
Over the last two nights I have mentioned how the North Koreans basically do a wide eyed ranting act to yank the chains of its so called enemies.
And what do its enemies do?
South Korea and the U.S. offer to return to negotiations with North Korea. Senior South Korean said their government also was willing to resume sending humanitarian assistance to the North.
Dictatorships love this kind of thing. We see it as calming tensions. they see it as weakness and just another backward step.
It will be interesting to see what happens next, will Kim Junior stick or twist?
0 -
TimB - Well TimeWarner film rights are still technically held by Ted Turner, a Republican who endorsed Romney, so even if Murdoch does not benefit the same principle applies0
-
How about honesty and accuracy? Ding Dong the witch is dead: Was Thatcher ever found guilty of witchcraft?Tim_B said:@HYUFD so even if Murdoch does not benefit the same principle applies
Well, no it doesn't. Either your statement is accurate or it isn't. It's not about principle, it's about honesty and accuracy. 0 -
Sunil -that is beneath you and unworthy of you. I shall not comment further on it.0
-
plenty were found guilty of witchcraft who weren't witches.Sunil_Prasannan said:
How about honesty and accuracy? Ding Dong the witch is dead: Was Thatcher ever found guilty of witchcraft?
(no making any comment about M.Thatcher here- i was as anti as anyone (i suppose) in the 80s. but also in favour of not flogging sleeping dogs. etc.)
0 -
This article has a slide-show of 495 photos of Margaret Thatcher. I laughed at number 265:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/04/11/thatcher-dead-argentina-brushes-off-snub_n_3062586.html#slide=23097960 -
Who is this next to Margaret Thatcher?
http://oi47.tinypic.com/ivfva0.jpg0 -
Neither 1979 nor 1997, but 1931! 1935! 1983! 1987! Three More Years! Five More Years! Ten More Years!0
-
We'll have election 2010 again, except with Con and Lab reversing places, with the LDs down a bit.0
-
"Another worrying sign for Umunna has been the failure of a single Labour MP to come forward with public support for him this week. That speaks to a lack of genuine popularity at Westminster which has its roots in his appointment as Ed Miliband’s Parliamentary Private Secretary shortly after being elected in 2010.
‘Chuka was never going to get on with the old Labour boys, because that’s not his background. But he’s managed to become strangely disliked in New Labour circles, too,’ says one party strategist. ‘I’m afraid the reason is personal. He tried to boss the wrong people around, even some former Cabinet ministers.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2308381/Voters-dismissed-trash-1m-Ibiza-villa-called-White-House-credibility-crisis-threatening-Labours-Obama-Chuka-Umunna.html#ixzz2QJZ60dud0 -
Oops!
Margaret Thatcher funeral: Council leader 'regrets' joke that he'd fly flag with smiley face to mark occasion
Fellow Labour councillor admitted he would have liked to have seen Lady Thatcher “hanging from a flagpole in the early 80s”
"Cllr Chater said his reply featuring the flagpole joke was accidentally sent to Tory councillors too."
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/margaret-thatcher-funeral-coventry-council-1828596#ixzz2QJaRjcU4
0 -
Sun readers voting 2:1 in favour of the BBC playing Ding Dong:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4883807/Should-BBC-refuse-to-play-Ding-Dong-The-Witch-Is-Dead.html#Vote
Meanwhile Margaret at number 6:
http://www.livehits.co.uk/top300.php?PHPSESSID=dfeb081bb5ad4e50083195cf114922200 -
Interesting that the BBC seems to have missed the Chuka story - maybe the tale of a Labour MP referring to ordinary folk as 'trash' isn't of interest to licence fee payers.0
-
Only "plebs" and if they are a Tory -and even if its not true....scampi said:Interesting that the BBC seems to have missed the Chuka story - maybe the tale of a Labour MP referring to ordinary folk as 'trash' isn't of interest to licence fee payers.
0 -
Perhaps here's an angle the BBC can use on Chuka:
Conservatives criticised for "sleazy politics" after lobbying nightclub owners to attack Labour MP Chuka Umunna
Mirror.co.uk http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/conservatives-criticised-sleazy-politics-after-1828305#ixzz2QJxOOUSy0 -
79 and 97 both led to a change of govt. Either way EdM would be PM for a rather long time.0
-
Do you live in a parallel world. What exactly has Alexander done that has been outstanding. Apart from being Osborne's sock puppet.RichardNabavi said:@tim - Of course Danny Alexander has been outstanding as a minister (I confess I didn't expect that at all). He'd certainly be welcome in any government.
0 -
Seven questions for the blues, No.4 looks fun.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/seven-awkward-questions-for-the-tories/0 -
To be fair - Jonathan Portes on R4 said it was "quite possible" that the cap had led to behaviour changes - just that these stats don't prove that.tim said:Unsurprisingly IDS' stats on the benefit cap are now being shredded.
Why does he bother, it's the same every time.
0 -
My experience may be atypical, but very few of the conversations I have had with friends and family over the last week have involved any mention of Mrs T. It's amazing how quickly she has passed into history for most.0
-
Same here - if 1990 is "another country", the late 70s are "another planet". I'm sure our minds will be on other things this time next week - barring some misfortune at the funeral. We have had some absolutely heroic headlines though - while today's Sun's Munchkin one is a classic - the Mail one with "Hitler" and "NHS Boob job" in the same headline takes the prize.SouthamObserver said:My experience may be atypical, but very few of the conversations I have had with friends and family over the last week have involved any mention of Mrs T. It's amazing how quickly she has passed into history for most.
0 -
Why do they do that sort of silly thing. Its obvious astroturfing. in the end they're lying to themselves.tim said:
Conservatives in photo fakery row: 'Young Tory activists' featured on party website are AUSSIE students
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/conservatives-photo-fakery-row-young-18283640 -
A bit of history. In the famous "Labour isn't working" poster, they couldn't get enough people to turn up, so they had to photograph the same group several times and patch it together to make the full queue.Jonathan said:
Why do they do that sort of silly thing. Its obvious astroturfing. in the end they're lying to themselves.tim said:
Conservatives in photo fakery row: 'Young Tory activists' featured on party website are AUSSIE students
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/conservatives-photo-fakery-row-young-18283640 -
Yes - using a stock photo is clearly more damaging than being criticised by a former PM or Cabinet Ministers:Jonathan said:
Why do they do that sort of silly thing. Its obvious astroturfing. in the end they're lying to themselves.tim said:
Conservatives in photo fakery row: 'Young Tory activists' featured on party website are AUSSIE students
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/conservatives-photo-fakery-row-young-1828364
"Now Tony Blair henchmen warn on drift to Left
TONY BLAIR’S henchman Peter Mandelson backed his former chief’s blistering attack on Labour’s new leader Ed Miliband yesterday, stoking a bitter war of words engulfing the party."
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/391539/Now-Tony-Blair-henchmen-warn-on-drift-to-Left0 -
Patrick O'Flynn:
"SO WHAT will be remembered as the biggest political event of spring 2013? Naturally the death of Lady Thatcher must be the prime candidate
But there is another that has thus far consumed only a tiny proportion of the column inches that have rightly been expended on the passing of the Iron Lady yet may have more pro found and longerlasting .......today I make this prediction: the local elections on Thursday May 2 will see Ukip make a breakthrough of such significance that all the other parties will be forced to recalibrate plans and policies in the runup to the general election of 2015."
http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/patrick-o-flynn/391572/Ukip-is-closing-in-on-a-massive-breakthrough
Mentions OGH too.....0 -
Interesting tale on Redwoods blog about how Mrs Thatcher learned of Gorbachov.
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2013/04/13/margaret-thatcher-and-the-cold-war/
The current events in North Korea, possibly the only country still behind the iron curtain, should be a reminder of how things used to be in Europe. Whatever her legacy in the UK, Mrs It's role in ending Communism will be her worldwide legacy. It is easy to forget the days when Soviet oppression of European freedom was a real threat, as was the possibility of a third world war in Europe.0 -
The big difference from 1979 to 2010 is the number of seats the LibDems will be defending in 2015. Much harder to defend 57 than 13 and in both cases they lost seats. In 1997 they had a long run of winning Tory seats at by-elections but in 2015 they will be part of the retiring government. I dared to suggest here in early 2010 the LibDems would lose seats when most of you thought they would win 80-100+ on the Clegg bounce. If they come out of 2015 with 57 seats they will have done very well.0
-
Next election will be more like 1992.0
-
I had friends working in Frankfurt in the early 80s - to them the question of Soviet invasion was not a matter of "if" but "when".foxinsoxuk said:. It is easy to forget the days when Soviet oppression of European freedom was a real threat, as was the possibility of a third world war in Europe.
Thank goodness the Greenham Common Women ended the Cold War!0 -
Wishful thinking on your part. Don't think you are allowing for UKIP hitting the Tories vote, more than the other parties.TGOHF said:Next election will be more like 1992.
At the moment it is 85% probable that Labour will win with a majority. The Tories only chance is some form of deal with UKIP and improvement to UK economic performance.
0 -
If you haven't read it - Dan Hannan has penned a very interesting blog that may be worth discussing http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100211743/how-many-of-the-people-complaining-of-pit-closures-would-want-to-work-in-a-coal-mine/
"As far as I can make out, anti-Thatcherites have two main complaints. First, that the Tory leader heartlessly closed coal mines and other heavy industries. Second, that, in increasing the gap between rich and poor, she made Britain more materialistic and selfish.
Let us deal with them in turn. It's true that the UK, in common with every Western country, was going through a process of deindustrialisation in the 1980s. That process had begun at least half a century earlier, and had accelerated through the Sixties and Seventies, when Harold Wilson closed nearly twice as many pits as Margaret Thatcher was to do. Of course, what we mean by 'closed' is that the Government discontinued the grants that had kept unprofitable mines in operation. Neither Wilson nor Thatcher prohibited the extraction of coal; they simply stopped obliging everyone else to subsidise it.
Why were the mines and other heavy industries unprofitable? Partly because of lower production costs in developing countries, and partly because of trade union militancy at home... What I find bewildering is why the mine closures are cited now as evidence of Tory wickedness. No one, with the exceptions of the SWP and the BNP, wants to recreate a state-owned coal industry today. Indeed, the people who complain most bitterly about the pit closures are generally those who are most against burning coal.
Ah, you say, but you can't just have a service-sector economy. Maybe. But why is building cars for a living more valuable than driving them? Why is making boilers more important than installing them? The expansion of the service sector has improved our lives immeasurably. It has given us better medical care, more convenient shopping hours, wider leisure activities.
Don't get me wrong, making things is wonderful. We are the eighth largest manufacturing economy on Earth, selling tea to China and vodka to Poland, and exporting more cars than we import for the first time since the early 1970s. And we're doing it all without subsidy. Despite – or, rather, because of – the removal of state aid, manufacturing output was 7.5 per cent higher when Margaret Thatcher left office than when she entered it. The nostalgia, in other words, is not for making things per se, but for particular industries: coal, shipbuilding, steel.
It is a nostalgia which, I confess, I simply can't grasp. My grandfather worked in the Clyde shipyards between the wars and, like many of his workmates, died in his sixties. He never wanted that life for his grandson.
What, then, of the second charge, that we became more heartless as our social cohesion loosened? It's certainly true that the gap between rich and poor widened, but this has been happening all over the industrialised world since the 1960s, for reasons which social scientists dispute. The two most popular explanations, as far as I can understand, are greater social mobility, which drains poor areas of their ablest inhabitants, and the tendency of wealthy people to marry each other – a tendency that followed the large-scale entry of women into the workforce.
I don't know what the explanation is. What I do know, though, is that the gap between rich and poor widened further under Labour. I know, too, that charitable giving doubled - over and above inflation - during the Thatcher years. By that most empirical of measures, we have become less selfish. Certainly less selfish than the Lady's trade union adversaries, who never lost their belief that the world owed them a living..."0 -
If you believe that, you should be betting. You can get 5/4 on a Labour overall majority with Betfair.hucks67 said:
At the moment it is 85% probable that Labour will win with a majority.
0 -
The highest risk comes from when a moribund regieme tries to modernise, and the breath of change accelerates beyond their control. It can create real freedom as in 1989 in Europe, a reactionary regime as in Iran 1979, or civil war between factions as in Syria now.CarlottaVance said:
I had friends working in Frankfurt in the early 80s - to them the question of Soviet invasion was not a matter of "if" but "when".foxinsoxuk said:. It is easy to forget the days when Soviet oppression of European freedom was a real threat, as was the possibility of a third world war in Europe.
Thank goodness the Greenham Common Women ended the Cold War!
The tentative modernisations in North Korea are the same set of risks. I think that the North Korean regime will collapse within the next couple of years, and potentially the Economic power of South Korea will benefit tremendously from a new workforce. There is real danger though of a more chaotic collapse.
Maggie managed this well, in part because she was clear and forthright in her statements. There was no ambiguity that could create misunderstanding, and she could not be expected to back down, as we saw from the Falklands war. I hope our current leaders are giving equally unambiguous messages to the North Koreans, not paying the Danegeld as before.0 -
Not my prediction, but the current probability level shown on Electoral Calculus.antifrank said:
If you believe that, you should be betting. You can get 5/4 on a Labour overall majority with Betfair.hucks67 said:
At the moment it is 85% probable that Labour will win with a majority.
Personally I think Labour will scrape a small majority and not the current landslide that average polling would predict. Many of the political geeks that analyse these things, think that Labour may be the largest party, but fail to win a majority. I have not seen any of these experts predicting a Tory win in 2015.
0 -
Not 1992 I think but 1997, on a smaller scale. We have a PM who is a n.ice guy but ineffectual, a conservative party more interested in faction fighting and jostling for position for a leadership contest. What we do not have though is a real mood for change in the country, with a taut and disciplined Labour party committed to sound economic policy. I remember the heady days of New Labour because I was part of it. The LibDems had a tacit electoral pact with New Labour under Paddy Ashdown and were also fairly united.Jonathan said:
A 1992 result would see Labour gain 40 seats from the Tories. Essentially leading to a reverse of the current parliament. Could be messy. Coalition 2.0 ?TGOHF said:Next election will be more like 1992.
So I see a rerun in part of 1997, but without any real enthusiasm for a Labour govt. I suspect a reasonable working majority of 40 seats or so for Milliband. I dont want to tie up money so far in advance but think that the 5/4 odds on Labour majority are good value.0 -
1979 GE now on BBC Parliament.
Look away now if you don't want to know the results ....0 -
The newsreaders are so much better spoken.JackW said:1979 GE now on BBC Parliament.
Look away now if you don't want to know the results ....
0 -
Agreed. For the LDS to hold onto to all 57 seats looks a very tall order. They will struggle most in two specific categories - those where the incumbent is retiring and those where Labour is the main opponent. Where sitting MPs are facing the the Tories it is going to be much tighter.
In the vast majority of this group the Tories are much weaker and the LDs organisationally much stronger. There’s also the impact of advanced distributed phone banking which was tested in Eastleigh. This is all driven by the quality of data held and in these seats the yellows are very strong.
The most striking feature of Eastleigh was Boris's much covered canvassing when in front of the cameras the blues could not find a Tory voter.Easterross said:The big difference from 1979 to 2010 is the number of seats the LibDems will be defending in 2015. Much harder to defend 57 than 13 and in both cases they lost seats. In 1997 they had a long run of winning Tory seats at by-elections but in 2015 they will be part of the retiring government. I dared to suggest here in early 2010 the LibDems would lose seats when most of you thought they would win 80-100+ on the Clegg bounce. If they come out of 2015 with 57 seats they will have done very well.
0
![[Deleted User]](https://w4.vanillicon.com/4006a4f7d70697004a1b548514b04f87_100.png)
This discussion has been closed.