Agreed. For the LDS to hold onto to all 57 seats looks a very tall order. They will struggle most in two specific categories - those where the incumbent is retiring and those where Labour is the main opponent. Where sitting MPs are facing the the Tories it is going to be much tighter.
In the vast majority of this group the Tories are much weaker and the LDs organisationally much stronger. There’s also the impact of advanced distributed phone banking which was tested in Eastleigh. This is all driven by the quality of data held and in these seats the yellows are very strong.
The most striking feature of Eastleigh was Boris's much covered canvassing when in front of the cameras the blues could not find a Tory voter.
The big difference from 1979 to 2010 is the number of seats the LibDems will be defending in 2015. Much harder to defend 57 than 13 and in both cases they lost seats. In 1997 they had a long run of winning Tory seats at by-elections but in 2015 they will be part of the retiring government. I dared to suggest here in early 2010 the LibDems would lose seats when most of you thought they would win 80-100+ on the Clegg bounce. If they come out of 2015 with 57 seats they will have done very well.
What that Boris incident also showed was a lack of political nous. I'm not more than averagely cynical but if I have a televised visit from a leading party figure, I do make such that there is at least one supporter among the people he's going to meet. It was endearingly naive that they just threw him at a random street with no idea who he was going to meet.
Agreed. For the LDS to hold onto to all 57 seats looks a very tall order. They will struggle most in two specific categories - those where the incumbent is retiring
So far just 1 LibDem retirement has been confirmed: Annette Brooke in Mid Dorset.
I wonder if the powers that be will try and convince some MPs in their 60s to stay on for another term waiting for better times to defend an "open" seat.
For the LDs to hold onto all 57 seats looks a very tall order.
Very much agreed - but will the LDs make any compensatory gains ? Last year that did not seem likely at all, but this year the Lib Dems must be eyeing up e.g. the marginal Conservative-held seats in Cornwall.
'“It annoys me a bit. You get lazy journalists and the odd blogger who’ll suggest that I fancy myself as ‘Britain’s Obama’ and that I seek to encourage the comparison. It’s never been something I’ve encouraged.”
One seat high on the Grant Shapps list is Alan Beith's in Berwck. At GE2015 he'll be 72 but if he fights again it is hard to see how the blues can make progress.
Agreed. For the LDS to hold onto to all 57 seats looks a very tall order. They will struggle most in two specific categories - those where the incumbent is retiring
So far just 1 LibDem retirement has been confirmed: Annette Brooke in Mid Dorset.
I wonder if the powers that be will try and convince some MPs in their 60s to stay on for another term waiting for better times to defend an "open" seat.
For the LDs to hold onto all 57 seats looks a very tall order.
Very much agreed - but will the LDs make any compensatory gains ? Last year that did not seem likely at all, but this year the Lib Dems must be eyeing up e.g. the marginal Conservative-held seats in Cornwall.
Cornwall could turn out to be fun. usually the Blues and yellows play musical chairs but with UKIP in the mix both sides could leak votes meaning game on.
Delight in the Twitterverse that the tax-avoiding global corporation that 'Ding Dong' is enriching is not Fox, but Turner Entertainment, now part of Time Warner, major shareholder Ted Turner, who reckoned Romney would 'probably maker a good president'.....Truly the gods are laughing....Margaret now at Number 6....
Geri Halliwell u-turns again I was so confused and overwhelmed by some of the feedback I received that I took my tweet down and for that I was called spineless," said Halliwell, adding that she had been afraid of upsetting people and had even been led to question her view of Thatcher.
"Did I even really know enough about Margaret Thatcher?" she wondered. "Was I just trying to be relevant? She had obviously upset a lot of people."
The doubts, however, were dispelled after a little reflection.
"Now I realise that I do admire a woman, whether she is right or wrong, regardless of her opinions," said the singer. "She had the courage to stand by her convictions. Not like me. I look at my behaviour, which exposed how weak I was under fire, not like Margaret Thatcher. Rest in peace
The Cornwall unitary authority elections on May 2nd might provide a a very good guide. Will Ukip syphon off Tory votes? Will ex-LAB voters return to their allegiance or vote to stop the blues?
For the LDs to hold onto all 57 seats looks a very tall order.
Very much agreed - but will the LDs make any compensatory gains ? Last year that did not seem likely at all, but this year the Lib Dems must be eyeing up e.g. the marginal Conservative-held seats in Cornwall.
Cornwall could turn out to be fun. usually the Blues and yellows play musical chairs but with UKIP in the mix both sides could leak votes meaning game on.
Good book review in The Economist on 1979 as a historical turning point. Rise of Thatcher, rise of a theocratic Iran or fall of The Shah, and Deng Xiaoping in China.
OT. I had a look at the 1979 election night on Parliament channel and it looks so primitive that I was quickly bored. They showed a section on even earlier election nights, they looked like a completely different era. I guess it was.
Peter the Punter - Wonder if he ever posts on PB under an assumed name?
Not aware of it, HYUFD.
PB has haad its share of famous posters - Louise Mensch, Yvette Cooper, Lord Monckton: some even suggest that the legendary Sean Thomas has posted here occasionally, although I don't believe it myself.
There are rumours that Site visitors have included Gordon Brown and David Cameron.
I expect Nate is aware of the Site, but I've never known him mention it.
"So far, South Tyneside Council has paid £142,725 to American legal advisors to unmask those responsible for the blog. However, the ongoing four-year legal case has yet to uncover the identity of those behind the postings.
The source added: “People often joke that the folk of Shields would vote for a monkey if it wore a red Labour rosette.
“Well, Mr Monkey won’t be wearing the red rosette, but it finally gives people the chance to vote for a monkey who has their best interests at heart.”
Not so much 'alternative history' as 'socialist porn':
"Cuba without the sunshine"
Dawn is breaking in Puerto Argentino, the town its former inhabitants once knew as Port Stanley. At the tiny airport, a gigantic mural commemorates the soldiers from the mainland who lost their lives in the battle for the Malvinas, or the Falklands, as they used to be called. Next to the old Anglican cathedral (now Catholic), a gigantic blue and white flag flutters. In the square nearby, a statue of General Leopoldo Galtieri gazes impassively out to sea. Today, in 2013, the world remembers General Galtieri as one of the defining personalities of the Eighties, a strong leader who, by recapturing the Malvinas, set his stamp on the age. For Britain, however, it was a dreadful decade — perhaps the worst in our modern history, and one that set the tone for years to come.
But you cannot PROVE you are a witch until you turn somebody into a frog, an alchemist until you turn another substance into gold. Just saying you are a witch or an alchemist doesn't actually make you one, any more than saying you are a novelist makes you one. ;-)
"So far, South Tyneside Council has paid £142,725 to American legal advisors to unmask those responsible for the blog. However, the ongoing four-year legal case has yet to uncover the identity of those behind the postings.
Mr Monkey hasn't posted anything for nearly 4 years!
Not so much 'alternative history' as 'socialist porn':
"Cuba without the sunshine"
Dawn is breaking in Puerto Argentino, the town its former inhabitants once knew as Port Stanley. At the tiny airport, a gigantic mural commemorates the soldiers from the mainland who lost their lives in the battle for the Malvinas, or the Falklands, as they used to be called. Next to the old Anglican cathedral (now Catholic), a gigantic blue and white flag flutters. In the square nearby, a statue of General Leopoldo Galtieri gazes impassively out to sea. Today, in 2013, the world remembers General Galtieri as one of the defining personalities of the Eighties, a strong leader who, by recapturing the Malvinas, set his stamp on the age. For Britain, however, it was a dreadful decade — perhaps the worst in our modern history, and one that set the tone for years to come.
In his excellent history of the 74-79 period (Seasons in the Sun) Sandbrook is pretty clear that Labour would not have won in 1978 if Callaghan had called an election. He's right about Benn though: perhaps the most destructive, deluded and malign political figure in the UK in my lifetime.
I notice the BBC website keeps referring to "Dr Wakefield". I think they mean Mr as he was struck off for unethical behaviour.
Being struck off does not remove a medical degree, only the awarding body can do that. Being struck off by the GMC takes away the licence to practice medicine in the UK. It has no jurisdiction outside the UK.
For good or ill, Dr Wakefield is entitled to his title.
You'd have to be extraordinarily ignorant to believe that Callaghan Foot and Healey wouldn't have defended the Falklands. Reading Foots speech in the Commons during the emergency debate should educate you
In the piece The UK sent a fleet, but were defeated in the Falklands, albeit with a picture of the wrong HMS Sheffield
You'd have to be extraordinarily ignorant to believe that Callaghan Foot and Healey wouldn't have defended the Falklands. Reading Foots speech in the Commons during the emergency debate should educate you
I agree - that's why I did not dignify it with the description of 'alternative history' - Sandbrook partly gets round that by moving Callaghan out of the way before 1982.
As Thatcher observed when Callaghan died: "Despite our disagreements, I always respected him because I knew he was moved by deep patriotism."
And I have read Foot's speech, but thank you for your condescension....
Daily Mirror @DailyMirror Exclusive: Tories slammed for "sleazy politics" after lobbying nightclub owners to attack Labour MP Chuka Umunna http://mirr.im/10ZZT4J Retweeted by Chuka Umunna
Conservatives in trouble in Glasgow .... Teddy Taylor may lose Cathcart ....
Those were the days, when a tory even thought it worth turning up in Glasgow.
1979 was really the start of the division of the UK into 2 sections with a border area in between. Labour still winning seats in the south and the tories in Scotland. It was a much, much healthier state of affairs all round but I don't see how we get back to it.
Being struck off does not remove a medical degree, only the awarding body can do that. Being struck off by the GMC takes away the licence to practice medicine in the UK. It has no jurisdiction outside the UK.
For good or ill, Dr Wakefield is entitled to his title.
A medical degree is MB, a bachelor's degree not a doctoral one. He is not entitled to anything except opprobrium.
I'm pretty sure Ding Dong is owned by EMI ( http://musicservices.org/song/detail/220004 ) which means that the royalties will be paid to them (and so benefit owners Sony and the Jackson Estate) and Harold Arlen the writer
Being struck off does not remove a medical degree, only the awarding body can do that. Being struck off by the GMC takes away the licence to practice medicine in the UK. It has no jurisdiction outside the UK.
For good or ill, Dr Wakefield is entitled to his title.
A medical degree is MB, a bachelor's degree not a doctoral one. He is not entitled to anything except opprobrium.
He is a graduate of St Marys Hospital London, so would be either MBBS or MBBCh. It is part of Imperial College now. If you are arguing that a medical degree does not mean the title "Dr" is appropriate, and that only PhD's should use that title, then that that would be out of line with UK practice.
As a point of fact Andrew Wakefield is a Fellow of the Royal College of Surgeons, and in England, Wales, Ireland and some Commonwealth countries Surgeons are styled "Mr" if they have passed their Fellowship exams. Interestingly this is not the practice in Scotland, where surgeons are titled "Dr". If his Fellowship is still held, then he is entitled to style himself "Mr" on this basis.
Comments
As per your moniker might you recommend a decent watering hole/eatery close to Willian, near Stevenage ??
"I quite like the idea of buying a Tory off the shelf."
Why not have a range? We could have a wierdly coloured, odd voiced one that cries - we can all it "Tony Tears"
I wonder if the powers that be will try and convince some MPs in their 60s to stay on for another term waiting for better times to defend an "open" seat.
Very much agreed - but will the LDs make any compensatory gains ? Last year that did not seem likely at all, but this year the Lib Dems must be eyeing up e.g. the marginal Conservative-held seats in Cornwall.
'It's Shapps, it's what he does.'
But not as well as Chuka Harrison-Trash. .
'“It annoys me a bit. You get lazy journalists and the odd blogger who’ll suggest that I fancy myself as ‘Britain’s Obama’ and that I seek to encourage the comparison. It’s never been something I’ve encouraged.”
bad choice, why not get a Cocky Chris ? It starts off a tory but then strips off so it can debrief My Little Ed on his foreign affairs .
I throw the question open to PBers worldwide.
I was so confused and overwhelmed by some of the feedback I received that I took my tweet down and for that I was called spineless," said Halliwell, adding that she had been afraid of upsetting people and had even been led to question her view of Thatcher.
"Did I even really know enough about Margaret Thatcher?" she wondered. "Was I just trying to be relevant? She had obviously upset a lot of people."
The doubts, however, were dispelled after a little reflection.
"Now I realise that I do admire a woman, whether she is right or wrong, regardless of her opinions," said the singer. "She had the courage to stand by her convictions. Not like me. I look at my behaviour, which exposed how weak I was under fire, not like Margaret Thatcher. Rest in peace
I'm going out to buy a Labour Economic Expert.
Sadly, as usual, after four years it'll be bust !!
I've grown bored with 'My Little Ed' - all it says is 'Judge Led Enquiry'...'Judge Led Enquiry'...'Judge Led Enquiry'.
The box says its going to start saying a lot more in February 2015.....but I'm not convinced....
LOL
Just read his book, too, and we also see things the same way from a betting perspective.
Spooky.
http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21576067-why-1979-was-about-so-much-more-margaret-thatchers-election-victory-when-world
Worth a read IMHO.
"...Plenty were found guilty of witchcraft who weren't witches."
In fact, exactly 100% of those found guilty of witchcraft weren't witches. This is because witches do not exist.
I think somebody should have told you this.
"In fact, exactly 100% of those found guilty of witchcraft weren't witches. This is because witches do not exist."
Not according to a song not being played on the wireless !!
PB has haad its share of famous posters - Louise Mensch, Yvette Cooper, Lord Monckton: some even suggest that the legendary Sean Thomas has posted here occasionally, although I don't believe it myself.
There are rumours that Site visitors have included Gordon Brown and David Cameron.
I expect Nate is aware of the Site, but I've never known him mention it.
http://www.worldwidewords.org/nl/jdaf.htm#N3
A Mr Monkey candidate is standing. LAB council spent £140k trying to identify blogger http://goo.gl/I3CPx pic.twitter.com/NNJ8L1Jpkp
"Sorry, Charles, but if they can't turn me into a frog, they ain't a witch."
I wouldn't show your legs near any French restaurant any time soon !!
"So far, South Tyneside Council has paid £142,725 to American legal advisors to unmask those responsible for the blog. However, the ongoing four-year legal case has yet to uncover the identity of those behind the postings.
The source added: “People often joke that the folk of Shields would vote for a monkey if it wore a red Labour rosette.
“Well, Mr Monkey won’t be wearing the red rosette, but it finally gives people the chance to vote for a monkey who has their best interests at heart.”
http://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/local-news/mr-monkey-candidate-to-contest-shields-by-election-1-5561245
You really don't get this 'mid-term' stuff do you?
You know when the Opposition Party's vote rises, and the governing party vote falls?
"Cuba without the sunshine"
Dawn is breaking in Puerto Argentino, the town its former inhabitants once knew as Port Stanley. At the tiny airport, a gigantic mural commemorates the soldiers from the mainland who lost their lives in the battle for the Malvinas, or the Falklands, as they used to be called.
Next to the old Anglican cathedral (now Catholic), a gigantic blue and white flag flutters. In the square nearby, a statue of General Leopoldo Galtieri gazes impassively out to sea.
Today, in 2013, the world remembers General Galtieri as one of the defining personalities of the Eighties, a strong leader who, by recapturing the Malvinas, set his stamp on the age.
For Britain, however, it was a dreadful decade — perhaps the worst in our modern history, and one that set the tone for years to come.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2308332/Cuba-sunshine.html#ixzz2QKrwwXUQ
But you cannot PROVE you are a witch until you turn somebody into a frog, an alchemist until you turn another substance into gold. Just saying you are a witch or an alchemist doesn't actually make you one, any more than saying you are a novelist makes you one. ;-)
http://mrmonkeysblog.wordpress.com
Plenty there for UKIP....
Those were the days !!
Knew it was fiction - HMS Sheffield the Town Class cruiser had been sent to the breakers' yard in 1967.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fraudulent_Mediums_Act_1951
I hadn't realised till looking at this wikipedia page that the matter is now covered by EU regulations. Wait till Nigel Farage hears about that.
Just remember the only time* the French have consistently defeated the English in battle was when they were led by a witch.
Which probably tells you how shite the French are at military campaigns.
*I'm sure there are other occasions but I can't remember them, given how few French Military victories there are, I should know.
http://mrmonkeysblog.wordpress.com/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/why-has-everybody-got-it-in-for-labours-rising-star-chuka-umunna-8570579.html
Interestingly, the Independent raises the question " So why has it hit now?"
For good or ill, Dr Wakefield is entitled to his title.
As Thatcher observed when Callaghan died: "Despite our disagreements, I always respected him because I knew he was moved by deep patriotism."
And I have read Foot's speech, but thank you for your condescension....
Why have they become smaller?
I preferred huge rosettes.
Exclusive: Tories slammed for "sleazy politics" after lobbying nightclub owners to attack Labour MP Chuka Umunna http://mirr.im/10ZZT4J
Retweeted by Chuka Umunna
So I have heard, Mr. Eagles, though the young lady refused to be named.
http://www.greenbenchesuk.com/2013/04/10-policies-that-would-win-2015-general.html
Or not.....
1979 was really the start of the division of the UK into 2 sections with a border area in between. Labour still winning seats in the south and the tories in Scotland. It was a much, much healthier state of affairs all round but I don't see how we get back to it.
That's shocking from you.
Is anything going on today? It's awfully quiet on here for a Saturday morning.
As a point of fact Andrew Wakefield is a Fellow of the Royal College of Surgeons, and in England, Wales, Ireland and some Commonwealth countries Surgeons are styled "Mr" if they have passed their Fellowship exams. Interestingly this is not the practice in Scotland, where surgeons are titled "Dr". If his Fellowship is still held, then he is entitled to style himself "Mr" on this basis.
Whatever his correct title, he is a charlatan!
RT @NicholasPegg: Want to see a squirrel re-enacting Michelangelo's The Creation of Adam? Of course you do. https://twitter.com/NicholasPegg/status/322978116014317568/photo/1