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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which election will we have in 2015? Election 1979 or Election 1997?
Tomorrow, BBC Parliament will be replaying the 1979 general election programme, as a build up to the funeral of Baroness Thatcher on Wednesday. The 1979 election is, to date, the only general election in modern electoral history (since 1950) to have been triggered by a vote of no confidence in the government and the polling (done by Gallup) makes for interesting reading for the Liberal Democrats.
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David Cameron = Michael Foot.
Nigel Farage = David Owen.
The easiest answer with strategic threat is to drop it from the air.
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76237/the_times_friday_12th_april_2013.html
Laura @oh_morris
All political disagreement should be fought out in the charts. PMQ's should be a dance off Run DMC style.
*Diana
*Immigration
*Left wing conspiracy
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76231/the_daily_mail_friday_12th_april_2013.html
The Black Lubyanka won't be happy..
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/76236/the_sun_friday_12th_april_2013.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fNMFwu_gAM
And how would the international community react to a successful test firing of (say) a Taepdong 1 or 3 with a nuclear payload?
I'd just like to thank you once more for your updates. They are always informative and useful.
A situation remarkably similar to what has been happening to the Liberal Democrats since joining the coalition"
Perhaps they like to talk about how coalitions and cooperation are good things, but their supporters don't like them in practice?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exWDguPklGg
Election 1997:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JttnDggWb8
Infratest dimap:
CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Green: 15%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 4%
Pirates: 2%
Others: 3%
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/04/11/britains-got-talent-simon-cowell-voted-election_n_3063657.html?utm_hp_ref=uk-entertainment
If it is going to be like Feb 1974, then in 2020 we'll get a Margaret Thatcheresque PM.
But, yes, a Tory majority in 2020 is highly likely, if the party comes to its senses. That's a big if, of course.
The answer to your question is that the West apparently doesn't know because the North Koreans have actually been quite cautious with their program, it has never been full pelt. Instead they've sneaked along and used the threat of a test or progress as a political weapon.
Whether that caution is due to technological issues, funding or another combination of reasons is unsure but verifiably breaching a line might invite a reaction by force that the North may not be able to afford before they get a critical mass (a moving line defined by others) of nuclear capability.
If they fired a weapon with a genuine nuclear payload they'd be playing with fire just by launching it and the risk of it going wrong. it would invite a response that might finish theor regime or alternatively create an immunity.
The North Koreans think about survival as a regime first.
“The earth is the mother of all people, and all people should have equal rights upon it.”
Chief Joseph, 1879
From a betting perspective
Although Republicans portray him as a liberal, Silver defines himself as “libertarian on social issues and centrist on economic issues. In the UK that might make me a Tory. Here I’m probably more in the Democrat sphere as Republicans have become so conservative.”
So what happens next? Will we live to see the age of Hillary? “Hillary would be a formidable candidate if she runs,” he says. “People should not neglect the fact that she has one of the most persuasive people in the world as her husband. I’m sure Bill would like a third Clinton term.”
On the Republican side he predicts a “spectacularly interesting primary”, filled with Senator Marco Rubio, Congressman Paul Ryan and Governor Chris Christie. “You could also see them nominating a nutcase.”
I'd assumed electoral reform was dead following the referendum, but who knows? If it's the price the LibDems demand in order to join a Tory-led coalition next time, that would be an interesting conundrum. Whether the party would accept it is highly dubious, though.
Better a walk-off like in Zoolander!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01ry872/Have_I_Got_News_for_You_Series_45_Episode_2/
Let's put this simply.
Osborne inherited an annual government spend of £600 bn with revenues of £450 bn.
To balance the books he needed to borrow £150 bn each year, or £1 for every £4 he spent.
This amount borrowed each year is the 'deficit'. The deficit amount is added to total government net debt.
Osborne has already reduced this annual deficit by 33%, which means he only needs to borrow £1 in every £6 he spends from now on.
Even so, he is still adding to the overall debt of the country and will continue to do so until the deficit is eliminated.
£245 bn has been added to borrowing estimates over a five year period as a result of growth falling below original expectations.
This additional borrowing is fully compatible with Osborne's fiscal mandate of eliminating the deficit over a five year rolling period and his plan to reduce net debt as a percentage of GDP at the end of this period.
In other words even though interim borrowing will increase over the period the deficit is still being reduced and eliminated and the debt partially paid down and reduced as a percentage of GDP.
These figures are of course simplifications and do not, for example, take account of inflation, but as an overall model they remain adequate for the purposes of this discussion.
So claiming that Osborne is borrowing "more than Brown and Darling" or "more than he originally planned" without setting the context is nothing more than deliberate misrepresentation of the real state of the economy and the competence with which it is being managed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22116270
Oh there's a shock, original estimates on figures/dates/recovery have not turned out to be anywhere close to what was thought.
If Murdoch (presumably thru Fox) owns the copyright, how has that transpired?
Do they own Tams-Witmark?
How Thatcherite!
Even though International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday that growth forecasts would not be revealed until the Spring Meetings on April 16th, media leaks are indicating that the Fund has cut growth forecasts for both the US and the global economy.
The IMF is cutting the estimate for the US gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year to 1.7%, from the previously forecasted 2.0%, according to a draft report of the World Economic Outlook obtained by Bloomberg.
The document apparently explains that the recently implemented fiscal tightening is expected to temporarily restrain consumption.
Global growth was also revised down to 3.4% for 2013, compared to the 3.5% original estimate.
The Eurozone didn't see it's target changed as the estimate remains for a contraction of 0.2% this year.
“The road to recovery in the advanced economies will remain bumpy. The weak ending to economic activity in 2012 and the sluggish beinning in 2013 highlight that important brakes remain in place,” the draft reportedly said.
The problems of Portugal and Ireland are not solely linked to the performance of the global economy and the extensions to their loan repayment periods can be justified on other grounds, but it is still important to set the decisions against this global background.
It is also important to note the relatively better prospects for the UK economy. At present, growth forecasts for the UK are being revised up rather than down against global trends.
Fox does have a worldwide distribution deal, but aiui, Time Warner own the pre-1986 MGM library and so they would get the cash. (MGM's library rights are rather byzantine in ownership now)
Thorpe was no longer Liberal leader by 1977 - it was David Steel who agreed the Lib-Lab pact. Indeed it was a trademark Steel move.
That's my - admittedly murky - understanding too.
For all I know, Murdoch may be the ultimate beneficiary, but I have yet to see a convincing explanation to show this.
Over the last two nights I have mentioned how the North Koreans basically do a wide eyed ranting act to yank the chains of its so called enemies.
And what do its enemies do?
South Korea and the U.S. offer to return to negotiations with North Korea. Senior South Korean said their government also was willing to resume sending humanitarian assistance to the North.
Dictatorships love this kind of thing. We see it as calming tensions. they see it as weakness and just another backward step.
It will be interesting to see what happens next, will Kim Junior stick or twist?
Well, no it doesn't. Either your statement is accurate or it isn't. It's not about principle, it's about honesty and accuracy.
(no making any comment about M.Thatcher here- i was as anti as anyone (i suppose) in the 80s. but also in favour of not flogging sleeping dogs. etc.)
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/04/11/thatcher-dead-argentina-brushes-off-snub_n_3062586.html#slide=2309796
http://oi47.tinypic.com/ivfva0.jpg
‘Chuka was never going to get on with the old Labour boys, because that’s not his background. But he’s managed to become strangely disliked in New Labour circles, too,’ says one party strategist. ‘I’m afraid the reason is personal. He tried to boss the wrong people around, even some former Cabinet ministers.’
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2308381/Voters-dismissed-trash-1m-Ibiza-villa-called-White-House-credibility-crisis-threatening-Labours-Obama-Chuka-Umunna.html#ixzz2QJZ60dud
Margaret Thatcher funeral: Council leader 'regrets' joke that he'd fly flag with smiley face to mark occasion
Fellow Labour councillor admitted he would have liked to have seen Lady Thatcher “hanging from a flagpole in the early 80s”
"Cllr Chater said his reply featuring the flagpole joke was accidentally sent to Tory councillors too."
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/margaret-thatcher-funeral-coventry-council-1828596#ixzz2QJaRjcU4
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4883807/Should-BBC-refuse-to-play-Ding-Dong-The-Witch-Is-Dead.html#Vote
Meanwhile Margaret at number 6:
http://www.livehits.co.uk/top300.php?PHPSESSID=dfeb081bb5ad4e50083195cf11492220
Conservatives criticised for "sleazy politics" after lobbying nightclub owners to attack Labour MP Chuka Umunna
Mirror.co.uk http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/conservatives-criticised-sleazy-politics-after-1828305#ixzz2QJxOOUSy
Seven questions for the blues, No.4 looks fun.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/04/seven-awkward-questions-for-the-tories/
"Now Tony Blair henchmen warn on drift to Left
TONY BLAIR’S henchman Peter Mandelson backed his former chief’s blistering attack on Labour’s new leader Ed Miliband yesterday, stoking a bitter war of words engulfing the party."
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/391539/Now-Tony-Blair-henchmen-warn-on-drift-to-Left
"SO WHAT will be remembered as the biggest political event of spring 2013? Naturally the death of Lady Thatcher must be the prime candidate
But there is another that has thus far consumed only a tiny proportion of the column inches that have rightly been expended on the passing of the Iron Lady yet may have more pro found and longerlasting .......today I make this prediction: the local elections on Thursday May 2 will see Ukip make a breakthrough of such significance that all the other parties will be forced to recalibrate plans and policies in the runup to the general election of 2015."
http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/patrick-o-flynn/391572/Ukip-is-closing-in-on-a-massive-breakthrough
Mentions OGH too.....
http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2013/04/13/margaret-thatcher-and-the-cold-war/
The current events in North Korea, possibly the only country still behind the iron curtain, should be a reminder of how things used to be in Europe. Whatever her legacy in the UK, Mrs It's role in ending Communism will be her worldwide legacy. It is easy to forget the days when Soviet oppression of European freedom was a real threat, as was the possibility of a third world war in Europe.
Thank goodness the Greenham Common Women ended the Cold War!
At the moment it is 85% probable that Labour will win with a majority. The Tories only chance is some form of deal with UKIP and improvement to UK economic performance.
"As far as I can make out, anti-Thatcherites have two main complaints. First, that the Tory leader heartlessly closed coal mines and other heavy industries. Second, that, in increasing the gap between rich and poor, she made Britain more materialistic and selfish.
Let us deal with them in turn. It's true that the UK, in common with every Western country, was going through a process of deindustrialisation in the 1980s. That process had begun at least half a century earlier, and had accelerated through the Sixties and Seventies, when Harold Wilson closed nearly twice as many pits as Margaret Thatcher was to do. Of course, what we mean by 'closed' is that the Government discontinued the grants that had kept unprofitable mines in operation. Neither Wilson nor Thatcher prohibited the extraction of coal; they simply stopped obliging everyone else to subsidise it.
Why were the mines and other heavy industries unprofitable? Partly because of lower production costs in developing countries, and partly because of trade union militancy at home... What I find bewildering is why the mine closures are cited now as evidence of Tory wickedness. No one, with the exceptions of the SWP and the BNP, wants to recreate a state-owned coal industry today. Indeed, the people who complain most bitterly about the pit closures are generally those who are most against burning coal.
Ah, you say, but you can't just have a service-sector economy. Maybe. But why is building cars for a living more valuable than driving them? Why is making boilers more important than installing them? The expansion of the service sector has improved our lives immeasurably. It has given us better medical care, more convenient shopping hours, wider leisure activities.
Don't get me wrong, making things is wonderful. We are the eighth largest manufacturing economy on Earth, selling tea to China and vodka to Poland, and exporting more cars than we import for the first time since the early 1970s. And we're doing it all without subsidy. Despite – or, rather, because of – the removal of state aid, manufacturing output was 7.5 per cent higher when Margaret Thatcher left office than when she entered it. The nostalgia, in other words, is not for making things per se, but for particular industries: coal, shipbuilding, steel.
It is a nostalgia which, I confess, I simply can't grasp. My grandfather worked in the Clyde shipyards between the wars and, like many of his workmates, died in his sixties. He never wanted that life for his grandson.
What, then, of the second charge, that we became more heartless as our social cohesion loosened? It's certainly true that the gap between rich and poor widened, but this has been happening all over the industrialised world since the 1960s, for reasons which social scientists dispute. The two most popular explanations, as far as I can understand, are greater social mobility, which drains poor areas of their ablest inhabitants, and the tendency of wealthy people to marry each other – a tendency that followed the large-scale entry of women into the workforce.
I don't know what the explanation is. What I do know, though, is that the gap between rich and poor widened further under Labour. I know, too, that charitable giving doubled - over and above inflation - during the Thatcher years. By that most empirical of measures, we have become less selfish. Certainly less selfish than the Lady's trade union adversaries, who never lost their belief that the world owed them a living..."
The tentative modernisations in North Korea are the same set of risks. I think that the North Korean regime will collapse within the next couple of years, and potentially the Economic power of South Korea will benefit tremendously from a new workforce. There is real danger though of a more chaotic collapse.
Maggie managed this well, in part because she was clear and forthright in her statements. There was no ambiguity that could create misunderstanding, and she could not be expected to back down, as we saw from the Falklands war. I hope our current leaders are giving equally unambiguous messages to the North Koreans, not paying the Danegeld as before.
Personally I think Labour will scrape a small majority and not the current landslide that average polling would predict. Many of the political geeks that analyse these things, think that Labour may be the largest party, but fail to win a majority. I have not seen any of these experts predicting a Tory win in 2015.
So I see a rerun in part of 1997, but without any real enthusiasm for a Labour govt. I suspect a reasonable working majority of 40 seats or so for Milliband. I dont want to tie up money so far in advance but think that the 5/4 odds on Labour majority are good value.
Look away now if you don't want to know the results ....
In the vast majority of this group the Tories are much weaker and the LDs organisationally much stronger. There’s also the impact of advanced distributed phone banking which was tested in Eastleigh. This is all driven by the quality of data held and in these seats the yellows are very strong.
The most striking feature of Eastleigh was Boris's much covered canvassing when in front of the cameras the blues could not find a Tory voter.