politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just to confirm: Friday’s Pre-GE2017 gathering WILL be taking
Comments
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I had to laugh how he tried to spin them as a good result.RobD said:
Probably still bitter over the locals.Floater said:
Mark is consumed by hatred, it really is not pretty.CommanderShepard said:
To be fair, Marks quality of post has been going down hill. They have been interesting previously, but have become more divorced from reality.HYUFD said:
I suggest he sticks to Parish council by elections, like most LDs he is clearly not ready for the big timeCommanderShepard said:
In fact, after reading Marks post again its not just unhinged, its down right disgusting. I would of expected better of him. I guess Tim Farron disastrous leadership of the Libdems has effected his critical faculties.Sean_F said:
That's pretty unhinged.MarkSenior said:What May should really have said today .
A few weeks ago I called an unnecessary GE for purely partisan reasons on the pretext of needing a strong and stable government . My weak and wobbly campaign has distracted and weakened the resources of our security services and contributed to the deaths of many young people in Manchester . As PM the buck stops at my desk and I will be seeing the Queen to tender my resignation later today .
After running away and hiding for a few days to lick his wounds post the local elections.0 -
5th of July 1945.Philip_Thompson said:
When?TheScreamingEagles said:
They did.kle4 said:Didn't the americans hold a presidential election during the american civil war?
I've often wondered how free and fair a process it was.
We held a general election during the second world war.
We were still at war with Japan, who didn't surrender until the 15th of August, and didn't sign the surrender documents until the 2nd of September 19450 -
Thankful these idiots aren't as good at bombmaking as the IRA. A truck bomb without a warning call would be devastating.Ishmael_Z said:
A non-improvised IED? Paradox time.glw said:
I suspect there are already some forensics about the bomb that point to it not being something improvised by one guy in his shed, like fireworks, black powder, or the like.FrancisUrquhart said:May in her statement mentioned possibility of functioning terrorist network. I don't remember on previous occasions there has been any mention of such a thing (albeit I think most people suspect there has to be of some sort of ISIS supporters network).
The Mirror agrees with you, though: "Manchester suicide bomber's IED was 'sophisticated kilo of explosives packed with nuts, bolts and screws - and he couldn't have built it alone'"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/manchester-suicide-bombers-ied-sophisticated-104861270 -
That, in any case, has always been a lie we agree to tell ourselves.Yorkcity said:
I agree but if they keep suspending any election activity for any length of time .They undermine their case that we do not change how we live.HYUFD said:
It will go ahead, just with heightened security, she gets her 100+ majority and we move onYorkcity said:I think if there is a possibility this election could be cancelled .If normal political activity can not be continued and campaigns suspended for over a week and the PM and government having to do it's best to control the situation .
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Basically Lincoln furloughed every US Army soldier he could spare and had them - how can I put this? - dropping heavy hints to voters going into polling booths.kle4 said:
I am stunned!Carolus_Rex said:
It wasn't.kle4 said:Didn't the americans hold a presidential election during the american civil war?
I've often wondered how free and fair a process it was.
Mind you, he'd probably have won anyway, but it doesn't do to leave these things to chance.0 -
I feel a bit dirty raising this, but as others have said this is a political website based on the idea of analysis.
Think back to previous attacks. At the international summits this weekend May will get press conferences where she is flanked, and supported, by world leaders. That can't fail to affect the election. Meanwhile Corbyn or one of his minions will show their true colours. For one thing Stop the War will comment.
It shouldn't affect the vote, but it will.0 -
The election should proceed on 8 June
There is no real need for active campaigning before then
As someone said earlier on here GE1945 was contested during a war
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Local campaigning to begin tommorow.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/national-campaigning-to-remain-suspended-tomorrow-but-local-campaigning-can-resume-54428.html0 -
Best thing about Penddu's plan, it will provoke D Davis into another flouncy by-election.DecrepitJohnL said:
Most already have these tracking devices. They are called mobile phones.Penddu said:Time to take the gloves off...it is often stated that MI5 have hundreds if not 1000s on their watch list, but do not have sufficient resources to track them all. So send every one of them an email to pop down to the local police station for a friendly and voluntary chat. Inform them that they are are on a watch list and with immediate effect they are banned from attending certain events, mixing with certain individuals, and have to submit a weekly log of their movements to MI5. Then tag them with a RFID chip like they have on dogs. RfID scanners to be used at all airports, train stations , events etc to look for chipped suspects. Providing they have logged their movements in advance and expect to be regularly and 'randomly' searched then no problem.
Meanwhile everyone who does not cooperate to be rounded up and given the same treatnent but also given a gps tracker that must be carried with them at all times to allow active tracking. Tracker can be removed for activities like swimming etc...providing notified in advance. Unauthorised removal of tracker to result in arrest and fixing of unremoveable bracelet.
That should hopefully balance security with liberty....0 -
And be able to detonate it at the right time in the right place, etcsaddo said:
You kind of sense the BBC are trying to down play things by sticking to IED as the bomb description. As though you can just go down a shop and buy a standard off the shelf high explosive nail bomb that fits in a rucksackFloater said:
It typically will not be the bomb maker who makes the attackglw said:
I suspect there are already some forensics about the bomb that point to it not being something improvised by one guy in his shed, like fireworks, black powder, or the like.FrancisUrquhart said:May in her statement mentioned possibility of functioning terrorist network. I don't remember on previous occasions there has been any mention of such a thing (albeit I think most people suspect there has to be of some sort of ISIS supporters network).
Improvised that's all. As @saddo said because you can't get them in Lidl.Ishmael_Z said:
A non-improvised IED? Paradox time.glw said:
I suspect there are already some forensics about the bomb that point to it not being something improvised by one guy in his shed, like fireworks, black powder, or the like.FrancisUrquhart said:May in her statement mentioned possibility of functioning terrorist network. I don't remember on previous occasions there has been any mention of such a thing (albeit I think most people suspect there has to be of some sort of ISIS supporters network).
The Mirror agrees with you, though: "Manchester suicide bomber's IED was 'sophisticated kilo of explosives packed with nuts, bolts and screws - and he couldn't have built it alone'"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/manchester-suicide-bombers-ied-sophisticated-104861270 -
You are probably correct. I am not sure the government itself knows much but obviously knows the man and slowly will fill the jigsaw puzzle.SeanT said:
All indications I've read say that this was a sophisticated bomb, cleverly designed for maximum lethality, and ISIS would not waste a talented bomb-maker in a suicide bid.glw said:
I suspect there are already some forensics about the bomb that point to it not being something improvised by one guy in his shed, like fireworks, black powder, or the like.FrancisUrquhart said:May in her statement mentioned possibility of functioning terrorist network. I don't remember on previous occasions there has been any mention of such a thing (albeit I think most people suspect there has to be of some sort of ISIS supporters network).
So, presumably, the ISIS bomb-maker is still out there, and MI5 don't know who or where he is, and he is expected to attack again, soon, before the security forces solve the puzzle.
This explains the Critical rating. TMay had, literally, no choice.
It would have been helpful if our American friends were a bit more cooperative. STFU.0 -
That would happen more if they postponed the election, democracy goes onYorkcity said:
I agree but if they keep suspending any election activity for any length of time .They undermine their case that we do not change how we live.HYUFD said:
It will go ahead, just with heightened security, she gets her 100+ majority and we move onYorkcity said:I think if there is a possibility this election could be cancelled .If normal political activity can not be continued and campaigns suspended for over a week and the PM and government having to do it's best to control the situation .
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Then why did he not walk away ?Scott_P said:0 -
The IRA had Semtex and training in how to use it, both provided by Libya.RobD said:
Thankful these idiots aren't as good at bombmaking as the IRA. A truck bomb without a warning call would be devastating.Ishmael_Z said:
A non-improvised IED? Paradox time.glw said:
I suspect there are already some forensics about the bomb that point to it not being something improvised by one guy in his shed, like fireworks, black powder, or the like.FrancisUrquhart said:May in her statement mentioned possibility of functioning terrorist network. I don't remember on previous occasions there has been any mention of such a thing (albeit I think most people suspect there has to be of some sort of ISIS supporters network).
The Mirror agrees with you, though: "Manchester suicide bomber's IED was 'sophisticated kilo of explosives packed with nuts, bolts and screws - and he couldn't have built it alone'"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/manchester-suicide-bombers-ied-sophisticated-104861270 -
Not sure what the Tory plans are !RobD said:
Ah, there was a tweet earlier saying the Tories were suspending both local/national campaigns for another day. Was that inaccurate?Pulpstar said:Local campaigning to begin tommorow.
My guess is they'll resume local Thursday perhaps.
Bit soon for canvassing I'd guess, perhaps leafleting - will have to ask my sources.0 -
Dear God.Scott_P said:0 -
Indeed. Thanks. As @topping says, these interminable debates over rival voting systems bring out the worst in us allSandyRentool said:
Thanks. I did see you earlier post. And I'm sorry for snapping at you in the past. It's the risk we all run as a result of debating politics.bobajobPB said:
Indeed. I don't know if you saw my post the other evening but the hatchet was buried from my point of view many months ago. I probably went a bit far with the knuckle dragging stuff. Sorry.SandyRentool said:
There is more that unites us than divides us!bobajobPB said:Sandy
Bizarre. I did the same. As you imply, act in haste, repent at leisure. Five long years in that particular case!
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Bit below the belt for you.They have just killed young people and recently there was an attack on westminster .HYUFD said:
It won't be, campaigning will resume at the weekend under heightened security, though I doubt even ISIS can be bothered to assassinate Corbyn, Farron and Nuttallkle4 said:
Maybe it'll be wrapped up in a day or two - bit early to be calling things off, never mind the hows of that occurring.Yorkcity said:
They should everybody else has to carry on and go to work .If it is that bad call the election off.RobD said:
https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/867121741247770624?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4960/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-just-to-confirm-friday-s-pre-ge2017-gathering-will-be-taking/p1FrancisUrquhart said:
Does that mean local is still on?Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Labour confirms no national campaigning tmrw
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Why isn't the number easier to remember? I suppose if you think it's really serious you can call 999.Scott_P said:0 -
Might I enquire why you ever thought of leaving her anything anyway? You don't appear to have any affection for her.justin124 said:
It is just a clear statement of my intentions!YBarddCwsc said:
Is there some insane pb competition to construct the looniest post?justin124 said:
Well I have a niece in her mid-20s who works for the NHS and lives in Gower the most marginal seat in the country. Three weeks back she was talking in terms of voting for May -over Brexit in essence. I have no idea as to her present intentions but if I subsequently discover that she has voted Tory , she will cease to be a beneficiary of my estate. It would effectively cost her circa £75,000 - though she will never know that because I am saying nothing.RobD said:
He couldn't resist the power of the dark side.justin124 said:
You have decided to throw in your lot with the 'lower form of life' .ThomasNashe said:
Yes, took me a lot of agonising, but I finally decided this weekend I will have to vote Tory - and that is my settled decision. I've been posting here off and on since 2005, and I never thought I'd live to become a PB Tory! But there we are.nielh said:
You can still vote labour safely in the knowledge that they have no chance whatsoever of winning, the issue is how big (and undeserved) the tory majority is.ThomasNashe said:I've voted Labour at every GE since 1983, but the prospect of Diane Abbot being in charge of the security services is in itself reason enough to vote Tory this time round - and I suspect after last night I won't be the only one who thinks that way.
Its a toss up between wanting to make sure that there is an opposition, and wanting not to prolong the misery of having Corbyn and Abbot etc and the naive hard left controlling the main opposition party.
Quite a difficult decision. I don't know if I can bring myself to endorse Corbyn for the reasons you describe.
Mark Senior's was good, but this is better.0 -
And this guy just came back from Libya...CommanderShepard said:
The IRA had Semtex and training in how to use it, both provided by Libya.RobD said:
Thankful these idiots aren't as good at bombmaking as the IRA. A truck bomb without a warning call would be devastating.Ishmael_Z said:
A non-improvised IED? Paradox time.glw said:
I suspect there are already some forensics about the bomb that point to it not being something improvised by one guy in his shed, like fireworks, black powder, or the like.FrancisUrquhart said:May in her statement mentioned possibility of functioning terrorist network. I don't remember on previous occasions there has been any mention of such a thing (albeit I think most people suspect there has to be of some sort of ISIS supporters network).
The Mirror agrees with you, though: "Manchester suicide bomber's IED was 'sophisticated kilo of explosives packed with nuts, bolts and screws - and he couldn't have built it alone'"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/manchester-suicide-bombers-ied-sophisticated-104861270 -
To be fair IED is a military description for any hand-made bomb to distinguish from "real bombs" which are the things you drop off of planes. So even if it sounds incongruous what it really means is that it is not a proper bomb built by a defence contractor, it's hand-made, often a one-off, and usually small; but the sophistication can vary from fireworks, through home-made high explosives, repurposed shells, all the way up to sophisticated remotely detonated bombs that were more common in the 70s and 80s.saddo said:You kind of sense the BBC are trying to down play things by sticking to IED as the bomb description. As though you can just go down a shop and buy a standard off the shelf high explosive nail bomb that fits in a rucksack
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Was out for drinks with a close friend that I hadn't seen for ages - he's a socialist, far more left wing than me, I had him down as a Corbyn supporter (but not a corbynista). I told him I would probably be voting labour tactically and he actually looked surprised by it and said he couldn't vote Labour with Corbyn as leader, due to his terrorist sympathies and his incompetence. Made me reflect again on my vote. not a good sign for Labour0
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So if he only just came back from Libya, was the bomb already built and waiting for him upon his return?
The most shocking thing about the Panorama special on the various attacks in Europe was there is a network of suppliers. One ISIS guy who couldn't go through with it described how he was told phone his number and you will be told an address and a car reg...and when he arrived at the car everything was waiting for him.0 -
She's lucky really. In Justin's twisted imagination people tend to get gangrene, polonium poisoning or heart attacks, so being cut out of £75,000 that probably doesn't exist is comparatively mild.AnneJGP said:
Might I enquire why you ever thought of leaving her anything anyway? You don't appear to have any affection for her.justin124 said:
It is just a clear statement of my intentions!YBarddCwsc said:
Is there some insane pb competition to construct the looniest post?justin124 said:
Well I have a niece in her mid-20s who works for the NHS and lives in Gower the most marginal seat in the country. Three weeks back she was talking in terms of voting for May -over Brexit in essence. I have no idea as to her present intentions but if I subsequently discover that she has voted Tory , she will cease to be a beneficiary of my estate. It would effectively cost her circa £75,000 - though she will never know that because I am saying nothing.RobD said:
He couldn't resist the power of the dark side.justin124 said:
You have decided to throw in your lot with the 'lower form of life' .ThomasNashe said:
Yes, took me a lot of agonising, but I finally decided this weekend I will have to vote Tory - and that is my settled decision. I've been posting here off and on since 2005, and I never thought I'd live to become a PB Tory! But there we are.nielh said:
You can still vote labour safely in the knowledge that they have no chance whatsoever of winning, the issue is how big (and undeserved) the tory majority is.ThomasNashe said:I've voted Labour at every GE since 1983, but the prospect of Diane Abbot being in charge of the security services is in itself reason enough to vote Tory this time round - and I suspect after last night I won't be the only one who thinks that way.
Its a toss up between wanting to make sure that there is an opposition, and wanting not to prolong the misery of having Corbyn and Abbot etc and the naive hard left controlling the main opposition party.
Quite a difficult decision. I don't know if I can bring myself to endorse Corbyn for the reasons you describe.
Mark Senior's was good, but this is better.0 -
More to the point, returning from Libya raises the strong possibility that this wasn't solely a Uk inspired/organised attack.FrancisUrquhart said:So if he only just came back from Libya, was the bomb already built and waiting for him upon his return?
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What's your constituency ?Paristonda said:Was out for drinks with a close friend that I hadn't seen for ages - he's a socialist, far more left wing than me, I had him down as a Corbyn supporter (but not a corbynista). I told him I would probably be voting labour tactically and he actually looked surprised by it and said he couldn't vote Labour with Corbyn as leader, due to his terrorist sympathies and his incompetence. Made me reflect again on my vote. not a good sign for Labour
I thought you were an En Marche man
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Only technically: VE day 8 May, GE 5 July, VJ day 14 August. My (English) mum says that VE day felt like the end of the war for practical purposes, VJ just a footnote (quite an interesting footnote if you were interested in physics).Ave_it said:The election should proceed on 8 June
There is no real need for active campaigning before then
As someone said earlier on here GE1945 was contested during a war0 -
Two about to graduate students on the train this morning were bemoaning Jezza's £80k tax threshold.Paristonda said:Was out for drinks with a close friend that I hadn't seen for ages - he's a socialist, far more left wing than me, I had him down as a Corbyn supporter (but not a corbynista). I told him I would probably be voting labour tactically and he actually looked surprised by it and said he couldn't vote Labour with Corbyn as leader, due to his terrorist sympathies and his incompetence. Made me reflect again on my vote. not a good sign for Labour
All that debt then finally get a good job then get clobbered by a wealth tax.0 -
Anyone know on what basis he was living in the UK?RobD said:
And this guy just came back from Libya...CommanderShepard said:
The IRA had Semtex and training in how to use it, both provided by Libya.RobD said:
Thankful these idiots aren't as good at bombmaking as the IRA. A truck bomb without a warning call would be devastating.Ishmael_Z said:
A non-improvised IED? Paradox time.glw said:
I suspect there are already some forensics about the bomb that point to it not being something improvised by one guy in his shed, like fireworks, black powder, or the like.FrancisUrquhart said:May in her statement mentioned possibility of functioning terrorist network. I don't remember on previous occasions there has been any mention of such a thing (albeit I think most people suspect there has to be of some sort of ISIS supporters network).
The Mirror agrees with you, though: "Manchester suicide bomber's IED was 'sophisticated kilo of explosives packed with nuts, bolts and screws - and he couldn't have built it alone'"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/manchester-suicide-bombers-ied-sophisticated-104861270 -
It's technically correct, the best kind of correct.Ishmael_Z said:
Only technically: VE day 8 May, GE 5 July, VJ day 14 August. My (English) mum says that VE day felt like the end of the war for practical purposes, VJ just a footnote (quite an interesting footnote if you were interested in physics).Ave_it said:The election should proceed on 8 June
There is no real need for active campaigning before then
As someone said earlier on here GE1945 was contested during a war0 -
I'm somewhat used to soldiers on the streets, it's been commonplace in Paris for a while, I sometimes stepped out of my apartment building and opened the door to soldiers on my street. but certainly a worrying development for the U.K. How many times has this happened before?0
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I believe born here....SandyRentool said:
Anyone know on what basis he was living in the UK?RobD said:
And this guy just came back from Libya...CommanderShepard said:
The IRA had Semtex and training in how to use it, both provided by Libya.RobD said:
Thankful these idiots aren't as good at bombmaking as the IRA. A truck bomb without a warning call would be devastating.Ishmael_Z said:
A non-improvised IED? Paradox time.glw said:
I suspect there are already some forensics about the bomb that point to it not being something improvised by one guy in his shed, like fireworks, black powder, or the like.FrancisUrquhart said:May in her statement mentioned possibility of functioning terrorist network. I don't remember on previous occasions there has been any mention of such a thing (albeit I think most people suspect there has to be of some sort of ISIS supporters network).
The Mirror agrees with you, though: "Manchester suicide bomber's IED was 'sophisticated kilo of explosives packed with nuts, bolts and screws - and he couldn't have built it alone'"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/manchester-suicide-bombers-ied-sophisticated-104861270 -
That rather depended on which regiment you were in at the time.Ishmael_Z said:
Only technically: VE day 8 May, GE 5 July, VJ day 14 August. My (English) mum says that VE day felt like the end of the war for practical purposes, VJ just a footnote (quite an interesting footnote if you were interested in physics).Ave_it said:The election should proceed on 8 June
There is no real need for active campaigning before then
As someone said earlier on here GE1945 was contested during a war0 -
British born citizen wasn't it?SandyRentool said:
Anyone know on what basis he was living in the UK?RobD said:
And this guy just came back from Libya...CommanderShepard said:
The IRA had Semtex and training in how to use it, both provided by Libya.RobD said:
Thankful these idiots aren't as good at bombmaking as the IRA. A truck bomb without a warning call would be devastating.Ishmael_Z said:
A non-improvised IED? Paradox time.glw said:
I suspect there are already some forensics about the bomb that point to it not being something improvised by one guy in his shed, like fireworks, black powder, or the like.FrancisUrquhart said:May in her statement mentioned possibility of functioning terrorist network. I don't remember on previous occasions there has been any mention of such a thing (albeit I think most people suspect there has to be of some sort of ISIS supporters network).
The Mirror agrees with you, though: "Manchester suicide bomber's IED was 'sophisticated kilo of explosives packed with nuts, bolts and screws - and he couldn't have built it alone'"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/manchester-suicide-bombers-ied-sophisticated-104861270 -
VE day was my mother's 11th birthday. For years she couldn't get out of her head the notion that Churchill's "brief moment of celebration" was in her honour.Ishmael_Z said:
Only technically: VE day 8 May, GE 5 July, VJ day 14 August. My (English) mum says that VE day felt like the end of the war for practical purposes, VJ just a footnote (quite an interesting footnote if you were interested in physics).Ave_it said:The election should proceed on 8 June
There is no real need for active campaigning before then
As someone said earlier on here GE1945 was contested during a war0 -
Having the cohort immediately behind fees subsidised but not theirs would sting too.TOPPING said:
Two about to graduate students on the train this morning were bemoaning Jezza's £80k tax threshold.Paristonda said:Was out for drinks with a close friend that I hadn't seen for ages - he's a socialist, far more left wing than me, I had him down as a Corbyn supporter (but not a corbynista). I told him I would probably be voting labour tactically and he actually looked surprised by it and said he couldn't vote Labour with Corbyn as leader, due to his terrorist sympathies and his incompetence. Made me reflect again on my vote. not a good sign for Labour
All that debt then finally get a good job then get clobbered by a wealth tax.0 -
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Quite often - it's called military aid to the civil power (MACP) and can be called upon from time to time. And has been (at airports typically).Paristonda said:I'm somewhat used to soldiers on the streets, it's been commonplace in Paris for a while, I sometimes stepped out of my apartment building and opened the door to soldiers on my street. but certainly a worrying development for the U.K. How many times has this happened before?
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If they go for anyone it will be May or even Sturgeon, they are not focused on lower ranked opposition figures, though of course Westminster as a whole still remains under threatYorkcity said:
Bit below the belt for you.They have just killed young people and recently there was an attack on westminster .HYUFD said:
It won't be, campaigning will resume at the weekend under heightened security, though I doubt even ISIS can be bothered to assassinate Corbyn, Farron and Nuttallkle4 said:
Maybe it'll be wrapped up in a day or two - bit early to be calling things off, never mind the hows of that occurring.Yorkcity said:
They should everybody else has to carry on and go to work .If it is that bad call the election off.RobD said:
https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/867121741247770624?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4960/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-just-to-confirm-friday-s-pre-ge2017-gathering-will-be-taking/p1FrancisUrquhart said:
Does that mean local is still on?Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Labour confirms no national campaigning tmrw
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Leaking like a sieve.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
No, look at Iraq as an example - the bomb makers are to valuable to use as expendable foot soldiersglw said:
Historically with the sorts of IRA, PLO, Red Brigade type of terrorist who often had nation state support that was true. With suicide bombers it ranges from total idiots, like in Glasgow, who appear to know nothing about explosives and die in their attack, to people who are carrying more sophisticated bombs made by others. That's why the forensics are so important to get ASAP, as the explosives and sophistication are a good clue as to whether it's Dave in his shed and he's now dead, or Mohammed carrying a bomb made by others.Floater said:It typically will not be the bomb maker who makes the attack
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2007.Paristonda said:I'm somewhat used to soldiers on the streets, it's been commonplace in Paris for a while, I sometimes stepped out of my apartment building and opened the door to soldiers on my street. but certainly a worrying development for the U.K. How many times has this happened before?
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Harrow West - where I grew up. A labour marginal now. I was in Paris full time until October (hence the username), currently doing a lot of back and forth as I'm back here for a while.Pulpstar said:
What's your constituency ?Paristonda said:Was out for drinks with a close friend that I hadn't seen for ages - he's a socialist, far more left wing than me, I had him down as a Corbyn supporter (but not a corbynista). I told him I would probably be voting labour tactically and he actually looked surprised by it and said he couldn't vote Labour with Corbyn as leader, due to his terrorist sympathies and his incompetence. Made me reflect again on my vote. not a good sign for Labour
I thought you were an En Marche man0 -
U.S. can't stop blabbing...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
While I appreciate a news update as much as anyone, could US Officials please at least wait for British officials to make these announcements.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Just the woman to find, then.FrancisUrquhart said:
U.S. can't stop blabbing...TheScreamingEagles said:
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It's actually pretty easy to make serious explosive with slightly better than GCSE chemistry knowledge. My friends and I used to do it in our teens, but for shit and giggles rather than murder. I won't post a recipe.Ishmael_Z said:
I imagine an IED merely entails a web search and a couple of weeks' work deploying basic DIY skills on things not that hard to obtain on the internet or elsewhere, and could therefore quite easily be the work of an enterprising "lone wolf". I am not going to attract the attention of GCHQ by testing the web search part of this theory.TOPPING said:
As I pointed out this morning an IED is a world away from a rented truck or kitchen knife.IanB2 said:
So either the guy wasn't a 'lone wolf' after all, or they have strong intelligence reasons for expecting a copycat.SandyRentool said:We have to be prepared for another attack. Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow.
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It is interesting that as an adult in any public place I am always looking for something suspicious. I have wondered if the Manchester attack may have been contrived because children don't look for these things? It is a sickening thought I know but it is an easy target more likely to get the result they want.Scott_P said:0 -
I think it might be a D Notice in effect or maybe we do have some very strict contempt of court/sub judice rules which might also be driving the British media.kle4 said:
While I appreciate a news update as much as anyone, could US Officials please at least wait for British officials to make these announcements.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You can use the address in the electoral register to find the house on google maps and see if it matches the one they raided.IanB2 said:
Just the woman to find, then.FrancisUrquhart said:
U.S. can't stop blabbing...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
IED is an accurate description.saddo said:
You kind of sense the BBC are trying to down play things by sticking to IED as the bomb description. As though you can just go down a shop and buy a standard off the shelf high explosive nail bomb that fits in a rucksackFloater said:
It typically will not be the bomb maker who makes the attackglw said:
I suspect there are already some forensics about the bomb that point to it not being something improvised by one guy in his shed, like fireworks, black powder, or the like.FrancisUrquhart said:May in her statement mentioned possibility of functioning terrorist network. I don't remember on previous occasions there has been any mention of such a thing (albeit I think most people suspect there has to be of some sort of ISIS supporters network).
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Really? I had the impression that one dead white kaffir was as good as another to them. Do they have form for targeting VIPs?HYUFD said:
If they go for anyone it will be May or even Sturgeon, they are not focused on lower ranked opposition figures, though of course Westminster as a whole still remains under threatYorkcity said:
Bit below the belt for you.They have just killed young people and recently there was an attack on westminster .HYUFD said:
It won't be, campaigning will resume at the weekend under heightened security, though I doubt even ISIS can be bothered to assassinate Corbyn, Farron and Nuttallkle4 said:
Maybe it'll be wrapped up in a day or two - bit early to be calling things off, never mind the hows of that occurring.Yorkcity said:
They should everybody else has to carry on and go to work .If it is that bad call the election off.RobD said:
https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/867121741247770624?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4960/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-just-to-confirm-friday-s-pre-ge2017-gathering-will-be-taking/p1FrancisUrquhart said:
Does that mean local is still on?Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Labour confirms no national campaigning tmrw
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I don't understand why people think it's necessary to leak details like these.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it might be a D Notice in effect or maybe we do have some very strict contempt of court/sub judice rules which might also be driving the British media.kle4 said:
While I appreciate a news update as much as anyone, could US Officials please at least wait for British officials to make these announcements.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
If it is a serious organisation yes.Floater said:
No, look at Iraq as an example - the bomb makers are to valuable to use as expendable foot soldiersglw said:
Historically with the sorts of IRA, PLO, Red Brigade type of terrorist who often had nation state support that was true. With suicide bombers it ranges from total idiots, like in Glasgow, who appear to know nothing about explosives and die in their attack, to people who are carrying more sophisticated bombs made by others. That's why the forensics are so important to get ASAP, as the explosives and sophistication are a good clue as to whether it's Dave in his shed and he's now dead, or Mohammed carrying a bomb made by others.Floater said:It typically will not be the bomb maker who makes the attack
If it is literally a lone wolf who has improvised his own crude device and self-immolated then no.
The forensics will narrow that down.0 -
You have to pay to get the address, and I didn't care that much. The free search just gives the general area and the names of the other residents. Edit/ you get the address if it has a landline, but his didn't.RobD said:
You can use the address in the electoral register to find the house on google maps and see if it matches the one they raided.IanB2 said:
Just the woman to find, then.FrancisUrquhart said:
U.S. can't stop blabbing...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The threat level suggests it is the formerPhilip_Thompson said:
If it is a serious organisation yes.Floater said:
No, look at Iraq as an example - the bomb makers are to valuable to use as expendable foot soldiersglw said:
Historically with the sorts of IRA, PLO, Red Brigade type of terrorist who often had nation state support that was true. With suicide bombers it ranges from total idiots, like in Glasgow, who appear to know nothing about explosives and die in their attack, to people who are carrying more sophisticated bombs made by others. That's why the forensics are so important to get ASAP, as the explosives and sophistication are a good clue as to whether it's Dave in his shed and he's now dead, or Mohammed carrying a bomb made by others.Floater said:It typically will not be the bomb maker who makes the attack
If it is literally a lone wolf who has improvised his own crude device and self-immolated then no.
The forensics will narrow that down.0 -
Yes. The Guardian has some detail here:kle4 said:
British born citizen wasn't it?SandyRentool said:
Anyone know on what basis he was living in the UK?RobD said:
And this guy just came back from Libya...CommanderShepard said:
The IRA had Semtex and training in how to use it, both provided by Libya.RobD said:
Thankful these idiots aren't as good at bombmaking as the IRA. A truck bomb without a warning call would be devastating.Ishmael_Z said:
A non-improvised IED? Paradox time.glw said:
I suspect there are already some forensics about the bomb that point to it not being something improvised by one guy in his shed, like fireworks, black powder, or the like.FrancisUrquhart said:May in her statement mentioned possibility of functioning terrorist network. I don't remember on previous occasions there has been any mention of such a thing (albeit I think most people suspect there has to be of some sort of ISIS supporters network).
The Mirror agrees with you, though: "Manchester suicide bomber's IED was 'sophisticated kilo of explosives packed with nuts, bolts and screws - and he couldn't have built it alone'"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/manchester-suicide-bombers-ied-sophisticated-10486127
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/23/manchester-arena-attacker-named-salman-abedi-suicide-attack-ariana-grande0 -
Right........ that's the main cause of the threat levels.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not whilst Ireland isn't united.RobD said:
Will we ever see the threat level at "low"? A depressing thought.glw said:
I would take "for the time being" quite literally, it almost certainly means "until the police have rounded up his associates". Once the police are confident they have them all I would expect the threat level to go back down.Danny565 said:She also stressed that it was being raised "for the time being", which to me suggests she doesn't think it likely to last that long. Though, of course, even if privately the police think it's more serious, she may be deliberately trying to play it down to prevent a public panic.
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Ah, I didn't know that!IanB2 said:
You have to pay to get the address, and I didn't care that much. The free search just gives the general area and the names of the other residents.RobD said:
You can use the address in the electoral register to find the house on google maps and see if it matches the one they raided.IanB2 said:
Just the woman to find, then.FrancisUrquhart said:
U.S. can't stop blabbing...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I think TSE's point was it sets a floor on the threat level.Floater said:
Right........ that's the main cause of the threat levels.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not whilst Ireland isn't united.RobD said:
Will we ever see the threat level at "low"? A depressing thought.glw said:
I would take "for the time being" quite literally, it almost certainly means "until the police have rounded up his associates". Once the police are confident they have them all I would expect the threat level to go back down.Danny565 said:She also stressed that it was being raised "for the time being", which to me suggests she doesn't think it likely to last that long. Though, of course, even if privately the police think it's more serious, she may be deliberately trying to play it down to prevent a public panic.
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They will either target mass public killings, high profile buildings or powerful figures, the UK government is as much an enemy as the Assad government as far as ISIS are concernedIshmael_Z said:
Really? I had the impression that one dead white kaffir was as good as another to them. Do they have form for targeting VIPs?HYUFD said:
If they go for anyone it will be May or even Sturgeon, they are not focused on lower ranked opposition figures, though of course Westminster as a whole still remains under threatYorkcity said:
Bit below the belt for you.They have just killed young people and recently there was an attack on westminster .HYUFD said:
It won't be, campaigning will resume at the weekend under heightened security, though I doubt even ISIS can be bothered to assassinate Corbyn, Farron and Nuttallkle4 said:
Maybe it'll be wrapped up in a day or two - bit early to be calling things off, never mind the hows of that occurring.Yorkcity said:
They should everybody else has to carry on and go to work .If it is that bad call the election off.RobD said:
https://twitter.com/GuardianHeather/status/867121741247770624?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4960/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-just-to-confirm-friday-s-pre-ge2017-gathering-will-be-taking/p1FrancisUrquhart said:
Does that mean local is still on?Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Labour confirms no national campaigning tmrw
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It is any citizen of sound minds right to settle their will as they choose.AnneJGP said:
Might I enquire why you ever thought of leaving her anything anyway? You don't appear to have any affection for her.justin124 said:
It is just a clear statement of my intentions!YBarddCwsc said:
Is there some insane pb competition to construct the looniest post?justin124 said:
Well I have a niece in her mid-20s who works for the NHS and lives in Gower the most marginal seat in the country. Three weeks back she was talking in terms of voting for May -over Brexit in essence. I have no idea as to her present intentions but if I subsequently discover that she has voted Tory , she will cease to be a beneficiary of my estate. It would effectively cost her circa £75,000 - though she will never know that because I am saying nothing.RobD said:
He couldn't resist the power of the dark side.justin124 said:
You have decided to throw in your lot with the 'lower form of life' .ThomasNashe said:
Yes, took me a lot of agonising, but I finally decided this weekend I will have to vote Tory - and that is my settled decision. I've been posting here off and on since 2005, and I never thought I'd live to become a PB Tory! But there we are.nielh said:
You can still vote labour safely in the knowledge that they have no chance whatsoever of winning, the issue is how big (and undeserved) the tory majority is.ThomasNashe said:I've voted Labour at every GE since 1983, but the prospect of Diane Abbot being in charge of the security services is in itself reason enough to vote Tory this time round - and I suspect after last night I won't be the only one who thinks that way.
Its a toss up between wanting to make sure that there is an opposition, and wanting not to prolong the misery of having Corbyn and Abbot etc and the naive hard left controlling the main opposition party.
Quite a difficult decision. I don't know if I can bring myself to endorse Corbyn for the reasons you describe.
Mark Senior's was good, but this is better.
I wouldn't do the same, but there is no right to inherit.0 -
Of course not, but it does seem awfully petty.foxinsoxuk said:
It is any citizen of sound minds right to settle their will as they choose.AnneJGP said:
Might I enquire why you ever thought of leaving her anything anyway? You don't appear to have any affection for her.justin124 said:
It is just a clear statement of my intentions!YBarddCwsc said:
Is there some insane pb competition to construct the looniest post?justin124 said:
Well I have a niece in her mid-20s who works for the NHS and lives in Gower the most marginal seat in the country. Three weeks back she was talking in terms of voting for May -over Brexit in essence. I have no idea as to her present intentions but if I subsequently discover that she has voted Tory , she will cease to be a beneficiary of my estate. It would effectively cost her circa £75,000 - though she will never know that because I am saying nothing.RobD said:
He couldn't resist the power of the dark side.justin124 said:
You have decided to throw in your lot with the 'lower form of life' .ThomasNashe said:
Yes, took me a lot of agonising, but I finally decided this weekend I will have to vote Tory - and that is my settled decision. I've been posting here off and on since 2005, and I never thought I'd live to become a PB Tory! But there we are.nielh said:
You can still vote labour safely in the knowledge that they have no chance whatsoever of winning, the issue is how big (and undeserved) the tory majority is.ThomasNashe said:I've voted Labour at every GE since 1983, but the prospect of Diane Abbot being in charge of the security services is in itself reason enough to vote Tory this time round - and I suspect after last night I won't be the only one who thinks that way.
Its a toss up between wanting to make sure that there is an opposition, and wanting not to prolong the misery of having Corbyn and Abbot etc and the naive hard left controlling the main opposition party.
Quite a difficult decision. I don't know if I can bring myself to endorse Corbyn for the reasons you describe.
Mark Senior's was good, but this is better.
I wouldn't do the same, but there is no right to inherit.0 -
Has anyone claimed responsibility yet?0
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ISIS have...but that doesn't mean that much....they claim responsibility for everything.HaroldO said:Has anyone claimed responsibility yet?
0 -
#heatwave alert - this weekend sees an attempt on the hottest UK May day ever....0
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Good to know the PB meet is going ahead!0
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Indeed. I just hadn't read anyone had yet.FrancisUrquhart said:
ISIS have...but that doesn't mean that much....they claim responsibility for everything.HaroldO said:Has anyone claimed responsibility yet?
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Read what the discussion is about before jumping in like an ill trained spaniel.Floater said:
Right........ that's the main cause of the threat levels.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not whilst Ireland isn't united.RobD said:
Will we ever see the threat level at "low"? A depressing thought.glw said:
I would take "for the time being" quite literally, it almost certainly means "until the police have rounded up his associates". Once the police are confident they have them all I would expect the threat level to go back down.Danny565 said:She also stressed that it was being raised "for the time being", which to me suggests she doesn't think it likely to last that long. Though, of course, even if privately the police think it's more serious, she may be deliberately trying to play it down to prevent a public panic.
We're talking about what the 'floor' is for the terrorism threat.
And for the thousandth time on PB.
The Sunday Times had a report which said MI5 was more concerned about dissident Irish republican terrorism than Islamist terrorism, simply because the dissidents have a readily available stock of semtex, bombs, and other weapons.
One of the consequences of the Dunblane massacre is that it is very hard to have handguns, rifles, and other weapons of that ilk, which is why we've not seen mass shooting terrorism in the UK, so far.
But you know better than MI5.0 -
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You really do talk some crap sometimes :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
Read what the discussion is about before jumping in like an ill trained spaniel.Floater said:
Right........ that's the main cause of the threat levels.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not whilst Ireland isn't united.RobD said:
Will we ever see the threat level at "low"? A depressing thought.glw said:
I would take "for the time being" quite literally, it almost certainly means "until the police have rounded up his associates". Once the police are confident they have them all I would expect the threat level to go back down.Danny565 said:She also stressed that it was being raised "for the time being", which to me suggests she doesn't think it likely to last that long. Though, of course, even if privately the police think it's more serious, she may be deliberately trying to play it down to prevent a public panic.
We're talking about what the 'floor' is for the terrorism threat.
And for the thousandth time on PB.
The Sunday Times had a report which said MI5 was more concerned about dissident Irish republican terrorism than Islamist terrorism, simply because the dissidents have a readily available stock of semtex, bombs, and other weapons.
One of the consequences of the Dunblane massacre is that it is very hard to have handguns, rifles, and other weapons of that ilk, which is why we've not seen mass shooting terrorism in the UK, so far.
But you know better than MI5.0 -
But others had a different recollection. Mohammed Saeed, a senior figure of Didsbury Mosque and Islamic Centre, said Salman Abedi had looked at him “with hate” after he gave a sermon criticising Isis and Ansar al-Sharia in Libya.
Saeed said he gave a strong sermon against terrorism and about the sanctity of life in 2015. He said 2,000 members of the mosque were with him; a small number were not; and a few signed a petition criticising him.
“Salman showed me a face of hate after that sermon,” he said. “He was showing me hatred.”
Saeed said a friend was so worried that he got his adult children to sit beside Salman Abedi in case he was attacked by him.
Saeed, who was born in Libya and came to the UK in 1980, said he was worried he would be labelled a “snitch”. But he said: “I have to speak out to protect our community, to protect innocent people.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/23/manchester-arena-attacker-named-salman-abedi-suicide-attack-ariana-grande0 -
What May didn't say this evening was as important as what she did. Theres a fairly stock standard politician and other authority phrase prefacing talk of threats 'though we have no specific intelligence....' Unless I missed something, I didn't hear it.
This guy was networked that much they know but how connected was he?
They know he travelled (the money is on that he went to his ancestral home at the very least). They know his associates.
Certain amounts of deduction are clearly being made but how much versus highly specific info is hard to tell. The deductions are a bit like a kid's maths exam, you might not get the right answer but if you show your working out there is still marks to be had for logic and method.
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Are you going Sunil? I will be there!Sunil_Prasannan said:Good to know the PB meet is going ahead!
And at Depeche Mode 3 June 2017!
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Maybe this is how he became known to MI5?Danny565 said:But others had a different recollection. Mohammed Saeed, a senior figure of Didsbury Mosque and Islamic Centre, said Salman Abedi had looked at him “with hate” after he gave a sermon criticising Isis and Ansar al-Sharia in Libya.
Saeed said he gave a strong sermon against terrorism and about the sanctity of life in 2015. He said 2,000 members of the mosque were with him; a small number were not; and a few signed a petition criticising him.
“Salman showed me a face of hate after that sermon,” he said. “He was showing me hatred.”
Saeed said a friend was so worried that he got his adult children to sit beside Salman Abedi in case he was attacked by him.
Saeed, who was born in Libya and came to the UK in 1980, said he was worried he would be labelled a “snitch”. But he said: “I have to speak out to protect our community, to protect innocent people.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/23/manchester-arena-attacker-named-salman-abedi-suicide-attack-ariana-grande0 -
Not to get all "SeanT" about it, but instinctively I kinda think a Mosque should have a duty to report any people who get visibly outraged about an anti-terrorism speech, or sign a petition against it....0
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A very provincial statement, I expect you are one of them Leavers. In Roman law systems (including for this purpose Scotland and most of Europe) it's 1/3 to the spouse, 1/3 to the children and it's only the remaining 1/3 you have any say about.foxinsoxuk said:
It is any citizen of sound minds right to settle their will as they choose.AnneJGP said:
Might I enquire why you ever thought of leaving her anything anyway? You don't appear to have any affection for her.justin124 said:
It is just a clear statement of my intentions!YBarddCwsc said:
Is there some insane pb competition to construct the looniest post?justin124 said:
Well I have a niece in her mid-20s who works for the NHS and lives in Gower the most marginal seat in the country. Three weeks back she was talking in terms of voting for May -over Brexit in essence. I have no idea as to her present intentions but if I subsequently discover that she has voted Tory , she will cease to be a beneficiary of my estate. It would effectively cost her circa £75,000 - though she will never know that because I am saying nothing.RobD said:
He couldn't resist the power of the dark side.justin124 said:
You have decided to throw in your lot with the 'lower form of life' .ThomasNashe said:
Yes, took me a lot of agonising, but I finally decided this weekend I will have to vote Tory - and that is my settled decision. I've been posting here off and on since 2005, and I never thought I'd live to become a PB Tory! But there we are.nielh said:
You can still vote labour safely in the knowledge that they have no chance whatsoever of winning, the issue is how big (and undeserved) the tory majority is.ThomasNashe said:I've voted Labour at every GE since 1983, but the prospect of Diane Abbot being in charge of the security services is in itself reason enough to vote Tory this time round - and I suspect after last night I won't be the only one who thinks that way.
Its a toss up between wanting to make sure that there is an opposition, and wanting not to prolong the misery of having Corbyn and Abbot etc and the naive hard left controlling the main opposition party.
Quite a difficult decision. I don't know if I can bring myself to endorse Corbyn for the reasons you describe.
Mark Senior's was good, but this is better.
I wouldn't do the same, but there is no right to inherit.0 -
Is this the guy where he was reported as smiling when he was arrested?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That fact will raise some interesting lines of enquiry down the road, for sure.RobD said:
Maybe this is how he became known to MI5?Danny565 said:But others had a different recollection. Mohammed Saeed, a senior figure of Didsbury Mosque and Islamic Centre, said Salman Abedi had looked at him “with hate” after he gave a sermon criticising Isis and Ansar al-Sharia in Libya.
Saeed said he gave a strong sermon against terrorism and about the sanctity of life in 2015. He said 2,000 members of the mosque were with him; a small number were not; and a few signed a petition criticising him.
“Salman showed me a face of hate after that sermon,” he said. “He was showing me hatred.”
Saeed said a friend was so worried that he got his adult children to sit beside Salman Abedi in case he was attacked by him.
Saeed, who was born in Libya and came to the UK in 1980, said he was worried he would be labelled a “snitch”. But he said: “I have to speak out to protect our community, to protect innocent people.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/23/manchester-arena-attacker-named-salman-abedi-suicide-attack-ariana-grande0 -
Taking a break from your tireless campaigning in Bootle?Ave_it said:
Are you going Sunil? I will be there!Sunil_Prasannan said:Good to know the PB meet is going ahead!
And at Depeche Mode 3 June 2017!0 -
Abedi's brother definitely travelled to interesting areas.0
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As should DIY stores if someone buys certain quantities of certain goods. There are various ways he could have dropped onto MI5s list, including who he happens to know in Libya.Danny565 said:Not to get all "SeanT" about it, but instinctively I kinda think a Mosque should have a duty to report any people who get visibly outraged about an anti-terrorism speech, or sign a petition against it....
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Another one who claims they like going on safaris....Y0kel said:Abedi's brother definitely travelled to interesting areas.
0 -
Meanwhile John Major is in Texas with George and Barbara Bush
https://twitter.com/GeorgeHWBush/status/8671415564400599060 -
When Trump moans about FBI and CIA leaking, he's got a point, they seemed to provide a running commentary for the US press.TheScreamingEagles said:0
