of his speech to a huge crowd at Tranmere's ground. I don't think any Labour sympathiser, even ultra-sceptics, can fail to be a bit moved.
Yes he is good on the stump .He had a good reception when he came to York and spoke in the main square.It reminded me of Neil Kinnock speech in 1983 .I warn you not to grow old.Might be the same result seats wise but they both know how to move people.
'The Labour party is a moral crusade or it is nothing'. Superb but from Harold Wilson about 50 years ago.
If the media latch onto a positive soundbite, it may get people taking and change votes. I think 'dementia tax' is OK but it's also a bit negative and depresses people, like the Remain campaign did.
I also think he has a more dynamic speaking style at rallies than EdM. By itself, that may be ineffective unless it's widely reported.
Yes very true the local Itv news gives him fair coverage when he has visited Yorkshire and shows the crowds.Less do the BBC who always seems to find Labour voters who are negative.
The BBC are shit scared. Always begging to have their charter renewed. Anyway, their news and current affairs are full of Tories.
Start with a letter A: Andrew Neil.
Andrew Neil is tough on everyone equally so no wonder lefties in comparison to the rest of the BBC think he is a Tory.
Try going through the rest of the alphabet. Blank for B to M, N for Neil, Andrew, blank for O to Z.
Getting annoying this from pollsters now. I almost wish we could see Prime Minister Farron waving from the steps of Downing St having swept into coalition with Plaid Cymru who won all 40 seats in Wales ( amazing considering the SNP wipeout ), just to stop pollsters hogging their 15 mins of limelight.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Looking at the Yougov tables the Tory lead is shown as 10% in England– effectively unchanged from 2015 and would imply no swing at all there.
There is a small swing to the Tories outside London and a big swing in Scotland, there is a 0.5% swing to Labour in London though which distorts the English figures a bit
A good rhetorical point. It can however be turned the other way around. If the Tories are OK with the concept of wealth confiscation in particular circumstances, it rather undercuts their opposition to the more general case of higher taxes for the wealthy.
For now, they can rely on the vote for us, at least we're competent argument - but as Major found, that too can eventually be turned against you.
It's not wealth confiscation. Nothing is being confiscated, some of the wealth that someone has saved through their life is being spent on themselves at the end of their life.
That the left can't understand the difference between someone's wealth being spent on their own care and being taken to spend on others is the big divide between left and right.
If that's such a big philosophical divide, why does not it apply more generally to healthcare; education etc ? And why is this particular thing not a matter for pooled risk ? Sound like a fairly desperate attempt to provide philosophical underpinnings to what is a policy of financial expedience.
Parents having their home confiscated to cover the cost of their children's education? A very fair policy (says a non-parent).
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Nick Timothy was also the advocate of brining back grammar schools.
I never thought I would sincerely type the words "I might vote Labour this time", especially when Labour has its most leftwing leader in many decades. But I typed them, and I meant them.
How many more are thinking like me, as the postal votes go out? What if this trend continues, and people realise 1. Corbyn could win, and 2. He would deliver Soft Brexit/Single Market?
But you voted. And voted Tory. For now, as far as they're concerned, job done.
The Tories have completely lost control of the narrative now...
Wasn't this election supposed to be about securing a mandate for Brexit negotiations?
Likelihood is that TMay will increase her majority and with the large leads she has, could afford to take a hit in the polls to rebalance the largesse thrown at the grey vote over the past decade. It's a brave move, whether or not you agree with the actual policies.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
May has also taken the Tories to 44% and 46% of voteshare precisely because of those UKIP anti immigration voters returning to the blue fold, the idea that you could pursue Brexit without hardish Brexit in the first place was never on the cards, we will be out of the single market until Labour eventually get back in, the Tories are not going to lose all their new voters. If Corbyn got in now we would be leaving the EU but with higher income tax, higher corporation tax, more spending and nationalisations left, right and centre and increased immigration, so we would be Venezuala with more multiculturalism, the precise opposite of what most Leavers whether soft or hard Brexiteers wanted, having been a reluctant Remainer it would be funny but a disaster for the UK
I never thought I would sincerely type the words "I might vote Labour this time", especially when Labour has its most leftwing leader in many decades. But I typed them, and I meant them.
How many more are thinking like me, as the postal votes go out? What if this trend continues, and people realise 1. Corbyn could win, and 2. He would deliver Soft Brexit/Single Market?
Are you okay?
My mum's thinking of voting Labour, after watching McDonnell and Green today on Andrew Marr.
The Tories have completely lost control of the narrative now...
Wasn't this election supposed to be about securing a mandate for Brexit negotiations?
Likelihood is that TMay will increase her majority and with the large leads she has, could afford to take a hit in the polls to rebalance the largesse thrown at the grey vote over the past decade. It's a brave move, whether or not you agree with the actual policies.
What is noticeable is the collapse of all the parties outside the main 2.
At the last election, Con+Lab polled 64% in Wales. The latest subsamples are anything up to 88%. Support is coalescing around the main two, except in Scotland.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Nick Timothy was also the advocate of brining back grammar schools.
Someone needs to start a STOP NICK TIMOTHY campaign.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
you know what this morning I thought fuck it, I'll vote labour to protest May's manifesto, since either way we are getting a labour government. With the religious pay adauit May is the heir to Harriet Harman.
She thinks she can take loyal tory voters for granted to win over working class labour voters who have *never* voted tory and for whom admitting it is "akin to a near death experience". Fine, win with them then.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son .
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
Except Yougov also has voters backing reducing net migration to the tens of thousands by 58% to 26% and Tory voters by a massive 82% to 9%, I am no great fan of it but it was one of the most popular policies in the manifesto, if May now ditched that and went for soft Brexit and lost all those UKIP votes she has won then the Tories would be back down to 37% or so and with Labour on 35% we really would be in hung Parliament territory and a possible Corbyn premiership with the backing of the SNP http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wvyc3lofp5/SundayTimesResults_170519_VI_W.pdf
Preventing a referendum on Scottish independence until after the Brexit process has been completed England (Scotland) Good idea : 55 (47) Wrong priority : 23 (37)
I'm a bit puzzled by these questions: "good idea" and "wrong priority" are not antonyms.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son .
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
Except Yougov also has voters backing reducing net migration to the tens of thousands by 58% to 26% and Tory voters by a massive 82% to 9%, I am no great fan of it but it was one of the most popular policies in the manifesto, if May now ditched that and went for soft Brexit and lost all those UKIP votes she has won then the Tories would be back down to 37% or so and with Labour on 35% we really would be in hung Parliament territory and a possible Corbyn premiership with the backing of the SNP http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wvyc3lofp5/SundayTimesResults_170519_VI_W.pdf
When this policy turns out to be an economic disaster these people will be the first to complain, watch.
What is noticeable is the collapse of all the parties outside the main 2.
At the last election, Con+Lab polled 64% in Wales. The latest subsamples are anything up to 88%. Support is coalescing around the main two, except in Scotland.
Just for fun, consider a result of
Con: 42 Lab: 38 Lib: 6 UKIP: 2
Which seems perfectly possible, as of this afternoon. That produces a Hung Parliament. TMay would actually lose seats, though still be leader of the biggest party. She would have no mandate for her Hard Brexit. The nation's entire negotiating strategy would be in tatters.
Would she even stay on? Try to form a coalition? With whom?
She'd clearly go but it would mean Corbyn plus Sturgeon without Brexit.
Corbyn, the SNP and Brexit are the Tory's election winning triple lock.
of his speech to a huge crowd at Tranmere's ground. I don't think any Labour sympathiser, even ultra-sceptics, can fail to be a bit moved.
Yes he is good on the stump .He had a good reception when he came to York and spoke in the main square.It reminded me of Neil Kinnock speech in 1983 .I warn you not to grow old.Might be the same result seats wise but they both know how to move people.
'The Labour party is a moral crusade or it is nothing'. Superb but from Harold Wilson about 50 years ago.
If the media latch onto a positive soundbite, it may get people taking and change votes. I think 'dementia tax' is OK but it's also a bit negative and depresses people, like the Remain campaign did.
I also think he has a more dynamic speaking style at rallies than EdM. By itself, that may be ineffective unless it's widely reported.
Yes very true the local Itv news gives him fair coverage when he has visited Yorkshire and shows the crowds.Less do the BBC who always seems to find Labour voters who are negative.
The BBC are shit scared. Always begging to have their charter renewed. Anyway, their news and current affairs are full of Tories.
Start with a letter A: Andrew Neil.
Andrew Neil is tough on everyone equally so no wonder lefties in comparison to the rest of the BBC think he is a Tory.
Try going through the rest of the alphabet. Blank for B to M, N for Neil, Andrew, blank for O to Z.
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.
You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.
Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Nick Timothy was also the advocate of brining back grammar schools.
If that were true, it could well mean a hung parliament.
Which is 10/1 at the bookies, right now.
Pile on, at those odds?
No. If there is a hint of a chance of a Corbyn government, a lot of waverers will hold their noses and vote May; and the Brexit Tory newcomers who might have stayed at home are more likely to turn out.
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.
You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.
Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?
No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
It goes
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
I think you've lost your mind, man.
You thought I'd lost my mind when I "over-reacted" to Dementia Tax Winter Fuel Fuck Up. You accused me of hysterical bedwetting, when I said this could be potentially disastrous; you pooh-poohed and chortled, and said it will barely shift the polls.
Well, who was right, and who was wrong?
I was right. You were wrong. I am of course a bipolar twit and prone to massive mood swings, but sometimes my moodswings mirror a greater shift out there.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
Well, certainly if the final stage of the campaign were to be dominated by a Hard Brexit versus Soft Brexit argument, I'm not convinced it would necessarily be to the Tories' advantage.
SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120
Why, when this one is clearly working?
SNP support firming up at c.45% - amazingly SLAB showing resilience - SCON could still come 3rd in vote % !
Firming up based on what?
The same subsample on which you're basing your confidence that there's no evidence of appetite for an immediate referendum?
SNP 44%, Tories 28%.
In 2015 the SNP got 50% and the Tories 15% so your absurd 'SNP support firming up' argument is actually based on a Scottish subsample today from yougov which shows a swing of 9.5% from the SNP to the Tories
My argument? Perhaps you'd like to point out where I made that argument. Great to see you get a feather up your ass about someone else mentioning subsamples tho'.
TUD, cuckoo who has probably never been within 500 miles of Scotland, gets all its info from the Daily Heil
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
It goes
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
I think you've lost your mind, man.
You thought I'd lost my mind when I "over-reacted" to Dementia Tax Winter Fuel Fuck Up. You accused me of hysterical bedwetting, when I said this could be potentially disastrous; you pooh-poohed and chortled, and said it will barely shift the polls.
Well, who was right, and who was wrong?
I was right. You were wrong. I am of course a bipolar twit and prone to massive mood swings, but sometimes my moodswings mirror a greater shift out there.
True, but you're more of a feather in a hurricane than a barometer.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
I think you've lost your mind, man.
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
It goes
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
I think you've lost your mind, man.
You thought I'd lost my mind when I "over-reacted" to Dementia Tax Winter Fuel Fuck Up. You accused me of hysterical bedwetting, when I said this could be potentially disastrous; you pooh-poohed and chortled, and said it will barely shift the polls.
Well, who was right, and who was wrong?
I was right. You were wrong. I am of course a bipolar twit and prone to massive mood swings, but sometimes my moodswings mirror a greater shift out there.
True, but you're more of a feather in a hurricane than a barometer.
For the benefit of those who believe minimum wage work is all free:
A worker doing 40 hours at £7.50 an hour receives an annual income tax/NI bill of £1712.32.
Yes, I am on £7.60 an hour and most certainly paying income tax and NI - and quite rightly so too. It really does blow my mind that there are some people posting on this site who are so out of touch with reality that they think lower income workers don't pay income tax!
Around £1500 worth of tax and NI for a full time worker, but you should get working tax credit which will be worth a bit more than that over a year.
People without children do not get tax credits thrown at them.
Tax credits are child benefit by another name. People without kids on minimum wage get very little, if anything, given to them.
Max lives in a dream world , he thinks all you minimum wage workers should be eating cake and shutting up.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son .
It goes back to case.
Here's a thing. And
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
When this policy turns out to be an economic disaster these people will be the first to complain, watch.
No they won't, they finally have a PM who listens to the bluecollar, socially conservative working class on immigration, that was what took Leave over the line in 2016 and that is why May's new coalition will probably last a decade irrespective of whether she gets a smaller majority than she hoped, Corbyn is up because he is winning some of the 2015 LD vote and a handful of UKIP voters for himself, even Yougov today still has the Tories picking up more 2015 Labour voters than Labour is winning 2015 Tories, added to the majority of UKIP voters backing May that gives her a coalition to last 10 years of around 45%. When Labour eventually get back in then we will get soft Brexit and return to the single market and probably free movement again too but for the next 10 years hardish Brexit of some form it is
Andrew Neil on Tories' social care plan: "A stealth inheritance tax of 100% on everything above £100,000."
PB Tories shouting at TV "Its not a Tax"
Viewers cant hear
A 100% Stealth tax is theft in my view
A tax is taking from your income to pay others, losing a lot of state subsidy to pay your own care (beyond support for those with assets under £100k) is not a tax whether voters like it or not
Was it a Community charge or was it a POLL TAX ?
That was a poll tax as it was levied per head on individuals to pay for local services
Why did the Conservative Party insist on calling it the Community Charge then ?
Every government and political party tries to gloss up what it does but whether it was called 'the Community Charge' or the 'Poll Tax' it was by definition a tax levied on every resident to pay for local services they may not use, irrespective of whether it was popular or not. The fact that if you have £100k+ of assets you have to pay for your own social care is by definition not a tax as the government is not taking anything from you to pay for others, just stopping a subsidy that would otherwise have paid for your care and that is true whether the new social care policy is popular or not
Bollox , it si not a subsidy if you have paid through teh nose for more than 40 years.
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.
You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.
Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?
No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son .
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
Except pdf
The voters are also massively in favour of staying in the Single Market, which means Free Movement.
Correction, Labour and LD voters are massively in favour of staying in the Single Market leaving Free Movement intact, Tory voters, especially with their new UKIP supporters, are not
Surely the elephant in the room re: social care is how these homes are going to be valued? Who will be doing the valuation, is there an appeal process, etc etc? What about the effects of sudden house price increases/decreases?
And the valuation itself will be a big piece of work - revaluaing homes for Council Tax purposes in England was moved into the "too hard" column by Osborne.
I presume this is already happening as local councils can put a 'charge' on a property for repaying social care bills.
Certainly, Equity withdrawal is taking place for other reasons too - funding holiday of lifetime, gift for the kids to get first mortgage etc.
So if I take a 100% equity loan on my £500k house, hand it all to the kids and then spend 20 years in care, how do the council get their money back?
The Council already look at this kind of activity, and if they conclude (I don't know how exactly) that you sold the house to avoid care home fees, then you get billed.
I saw many sad thing when my mother was dying of Parkinson's.
But the saddest of all were the people whose families had shafted them, and sold the house.
They had taken the money and left their mother or father defenceless and moneyless and alone, grappling with monstrosity of our social care system.
They were usually so sick they couldn’t understand what had happened to them, where they were, where their children were or why they had no money any more.
The Government will have to draft something pretty clever to avoid loopholes where people do precisely what was suggested: equity release + give to the kids. If you do it soon enough and have no care needs for several years how are they gonna show it was a disposal for avoiding care costs? Obviously there are IHT issues with this.
\Indeed, a fairly obvious strategy is for Gran to sell the family home and buy a flat costing £99k a few months before starting care
Lots of people will give away surplus capital or income to heirs. Far fewer would actually put themselves in financial jeopardy to do so. Give your assets away, and you lose all control over your future.
What is noticeable is the collapse of all the parties outside the main 2.
At the last election, Con+Lab polled 64% in Wales. The latest subsamples are anything up to 88%. Support is coalescing around the main two, except in Scotland.
Just for fun, consider a result of
Con: 42 Lab: 38 Lib: 6 UKIP: 2
Which seems perfectly possible, as of this afternoon. That produces a Hung Parliament. TMay would actually lose seats, though still be leader of the biggest party. She would have no mandate for her Hard Brexit. The nation's entire negotiating strategy would be in tatters.
Would she even stay on? Try to form a coalition? With whom?
She'd clearly go but it would mean Corbyn plus Sturgeon without Brexit.
Corbyn, the SNP and Brexit are the Tory's election winning triple lock.
I've never seen a convincing argument that Article 50 is revocable, so there will be some kind of Brexit.
It might actually be quite healthy if this election campaign crystallised around the issue of which kind of Brexit people wanted.
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
It goes
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
I think you've lost your mind, man.
You thought I'd lost my mind when I "over-reacted" to Dementia Tax Winter Fuel Fuck Up. You accused me of hysterical bedwetting, when I said this could be potentially disastrous; you pooh-poohed and chortled, and said it will barely shift the polls.
Well, who was right, and who was wrong?
I was right. You were wrong. I am of course a bipolar twit and prone to massive mood swings, but sometimes my moodswings mirror a greater shift out there.
Yes, I think that the leadership are out on a limb with both of these policies. It's the drip drip effect. They are putting out too many unpopular policies and haven't got any kind of gold in there for anyone. I said it before when they revealed these policies, I don't know who Theresa May is trying to appeal and what strategy she is attempting to undertake other than being "not Corbyn" for people who don't like Corbyn.
Looking at the Yougov tables the Tory lead is shown as 10% in England– effectively unchanged from 2015 and would imply no swing at all there.
There is a small swing to the Tories outside London and a big swing in Scotland, there is a 0.5% swing to Labour in London though which distorts the English figures a bit
Andrew Neil on Tories' social care plan: "A stealth inheritance tax of 100% on everything above £100,000."
PB Tories shouting at TV "Its not a Tax"
Viewers cant hear
A 100% Stealth tax is theft in my view
A tax is taking from your income to pay others, losing a lot of state subsidy to pay your own care (beyond support for those with assets under £100k) is not a tax whether voters like it or not
Was it a Community charge or was it a POLL TAX ?
That was a poll tax as it was levied per head on individuals to pay for local services
Why did the Conservative Party insist on calling it the Community Charge then ?
Every government and political party tries to gloss up what it does but whether it was called 'the Community Charge' or the 'Poll Tax' it was by definition a tax levied on every resident to pay for local services they may not use, irrespective of whether it was popular or not. The fact that if you have £100k+ of assets you have to pay for your own social care is by definition not a tax as the government is not taking anything from you to pay for others, just stopping a subsidy that would otherwise have paid for your care and that is true whether the new social care policy is popular or not
Bollox , it si not a subsidy if you have paid through teh nose for more than 40 years.
The majority of which you paid for in taxes not being social care
The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much
I rest my case.
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
May has also taken the Tories to 44% and 46% of voteshare precisely because of those UKIP anti immigration voters returning to the blue fold, the idea that you could pursue Brexit without hardish Brexit in the first place was never on the cards, we will be out of the single market until Labour eventually get back in, the Tories are not going to lose all their new voters. If Corbyn got in now we would be leaving the EU but with higher income tax, higher corporation tax, more spending and nationalisations left, right and centre and increased immigration, so we would be Venezuala with more multiculturalism, the precise opposite of what most Leavers whether soft or hard Brexiteers wanted, having been a reluctant Remainer it would be funny but a disaster for the UK
So far she has taken them nowhere, mere speculation based on some polls. Wishful thinking by frothing idiots on here. So far she has not won a single vote.
Surely the elephant in the room re: social care is how these homes are going to be valued? Who will be doing the valuation, is there an appeal process, etc etc? What about the effects of sudden house price increases/decreases?
And the valuation itself will be a big piece of work - revaluaing homes for Council Tax purposes in England was moved into the "too hard" column by Osborne.
I presume this is already happening as local councils can put a 'charge' on a property for repaying social care bills.
Certainly, Equity withdrawal is taking place for other reasons too - funding holiday of lifetime, gift for the kids to get first mortgage etc.
So if I take a 100% equity loan on my £500k house, hand it all to the kids and then spend 20 years in care, how do the council get their money back?
The Council already look at this kind of activity, and if they conclude (I don't know how exactly) that you sold the house to avoid care home fees, then you get billed.
I saw many sad thing when my mother was dying of Parkinson's.
But the saddest of all were the people whose families had shafted them, and sold the house.
They had taken the money and left their mother or father defenceless and moneyless and alone, grappling with monstrosity of our social care system.
They were usually so sick they couldn’t understand what had happened to them, where they were, where their children were or why they had no money any more.
That's absolutely horrible. Stories like that make me wonder about how modern society has become both so materialistic and so willing to look to the state to solve problems, that people can just steal from and then abandon their own parents.
If any of these families were abusing powers of attorney they could be prosecuted for theft. Plenty have been.
Something that hasn't been mentioned is the lack of choice of care homes if you have to rely on local authority funding. You may not be able to get your parent into a home within easy travelling distance. This is particularly a problem if parents live within a different council area from their children. But if an inheritance is all that matters I suppose this consideration would not apply.
Fighting to keep heating allowance for millionaire pensioners and for millionaires offspring to inherit as much as possible without impediment from the state
Both of these policies are entirely sensible but, in an election which the media are desperate to be closer, anything taking something away from someone is going to be reported with outrage, what is appalling is the opposition's readiness to ditch any principles ever held to ride the waves of an unpopular manifesto commitment.
But this is as bad as it gets for the tories, when voting people will remember it's all about brexit and that Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott are truly dreadful human beings
I never thought I would sincerely type the words "I might vote Labour this time", especially when Labour has its most leftwing leader in many decades. But I typed them, and I meant them.
How many more are thinking like me, as the postal votes go out? What if this trend continues, and people realise 1. Corbyn could win, and 2. He would deliver Soft Brexit/Single Market?
Are you okay?
My mum's thinking of voting Labour, after watching McDonnell and Green today on Andrew Marr.
You mean the one where McDonnell actually said they wouldn't be borrowing, just issuing gilts?
of his speech to a huge crowd at Tranmere's ground. I don't think any Labour sympathiser, even ultra-sceptics, can fail to be a bit moved.
Yes he is good on the stump .He had a good reception when he came to York and spoke in the main square.It reminded me of Neil Kinnock speech in 1983 .I warn you not to grow old.Might be the same result seats wise but they both know how to move people.
'The Labour party is a moral crusade or it is nothing'. Superb but from Harold Wilson about 50 years ago.
If the media latch onto a positive soundbite, it may get people taking and change votes. I think 'dementia tax' is OK but it's also a bit negative and depresses people, like the Remain campaign did.
I also think he has a more dynamic speaking style at rallies than EdM. By itself, that may be ineffective unless it's widely reported.
Yes very true the local Itv news gives him fair coverage when he has visited Yorkshire and shows the crowds.Less do the BBC who always seems to find Labour voters who are negative.
The BBC are shit scared. Always begging to have their charter renewed. Anyway, their news and current affairs are full of Tories.
Start with a letter A: Andrew Neil.
Andrew Neil is tough on everyone equally so no wonder lefties in comparison to the rest of the BBC think he is a Tory.
Try going through the rest of the alphabet. Blank for B to M, N for Neil, Andrew, blank for O to Z.
He is a Tory. As was Jeremy Paxman.
How did I know you were going to say Paxman? Someone who is most famous for ripping apart Tories like Michael Howard and hasn't worked at the BBC for years now.
Comparing like with like - YouGov for Sunday Times, this weekend's versus the last:
Headline VI
Last Sunday: Con 49, Lab 31 This Sunday: Con 44, Lab 35
Con lead over Lab in headline VI, by age group
Last Sunday:
18-24 -20 25-49 -3 50-64 +29 65+ +52
This Sunday:
18-24 -33 25-49 -16 50-64 +21 65+ +50
Leader ratings:
The Sunday Times series asks people to decide whether the leaders are doing well or badly. A negative score indicates that more respondents say they are doing badly than well.
Last Sunday: May +18, Corbyn -42 (net difference: 60) This Sunday: May +15, Corbyn -35 (net difference: 50)
May's lead over Corbyn, broken down by age group:
Last Sunday:
18-24 -5 25-49 +32 50-64 +84 65+ +132
This Sunday:
18-24 -27 25-49 +26 50-64 +67 65+ +113
Conclusions:
1. If YouGov are to be believed, both Labour and Corbyn have made progress this week. 2. According to these particular data sets, Labour's progress has been swiftest amongst the youngest. It slows as you move up the age profile of the electorate. The Tory lead amongst pensioners has barely changed at all. 3. Corbyn appears to have closed the gap with May a little, but he's still ahead only with the youngest voters. May is comfortably ahead with the 25-49 group, miles ahead with the 50-64's, and light years ahead with pensioners.
An excellent debate between Livni and Erekat on the World economic forum. Two very impressive politicians. Those tedious people who keep shouting ant Semite at Corbyn should stop reading silly articles by those with an axe to grind and watch the issues discussed intelligently.
Comments
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Opinium: Lab 43 Con 43
Ipsos: Lab 54 Con 28
ORB: Lab 44 Con 37
ICM: Con 48 Lab 28.
I'd guess they're back to neck and neck, or thereabouts.
My mum's thinking of voting Labour, after watching McDonnell and Green today on Andrew Marr.
What is noticeable is the collapse of all the parties outside the main 2.
At the last election, Con+Lab polled 64% in Wales. The latest subsamples are anything up to 88%. Support is coalescing around the main two, except in Scotland.
His agenda is a DISASTER.
She thinks she can take loyal tory voters for granted to win over working class labour voters who have *never* voted tory and for whom admitting it is "akin to a near death experience". Fine, win with them then.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wvyc3lofp5/SundayTimesResults_170519_VI_W.pdf
Corbyn, the SNP and Brexit are the Tory's election winning triple lock.
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/866280465078120448
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/866280739519811584
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/866281245852016640
It might actually be quite healthy if this election campaign crystallised around the issue of which kind of Brexit people wanted.
Something that hasn't been mentioned is the lack of choice of care homes if you have to rely on local authority funding. You may not be able to get your parent into a home within easy travelling distance. This is particularly a problem if parents live within a different council area from their children. But if an inheritance is all that matters I suppose this consideration would not apply.
Fighting to keep heating allowance for millionaire pensioners and for millionaires offspring to inherit as much as possible without impediment from the state
Both of these policies are entirely sensible but, in an election which the media are desperate to be closer, anything taking something away from someone is going to be reported with outrage, what is appalling is the opposition's readiness to ditch any principles ever held to ride the waves of an unpopular manifesto commitment.
But this is as bad as it gets for the tories, when voting people will remember it's all about brexit and that Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott are truly dreadful human beings
You mean the one where McDonnell actually said they wouldn't be borrowing, just issuing gilts?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/davidson-calls-for-holyrood-alliance-of-unionist-parties-dqf9xjgpj
Yeah the BBC is so Tory isn't it ...
Headline VI
Last Sunday: Con 49, Lab 31
This Sunday: Con 44, Lab 35
Con lead over Lab in headline VI, by age group
Last Sunday:
18-24 -20
25-49 -3
50-64 +29
65+ +52
This Sunday:
18-24 -33
25-49 -16
50-64 +21
65+ +50
Leader ratings:
The Sunday Times series asks people to decide whether the leaders are doing well or badly. A negative score indicates that more respondents say they are doing badly than well.
Last Sunday: May +18, Corbyn -42 (net difference: 60)
This Sunday: May +15, Corbyn -35 (net difference: 50)
May's lead over Corbyn, broken down by age group:
Last Sunday:
18-24 -5
25-49 +32
50-64 +84
65+ +132
This Sunday:
18-24 -27
25-49 +26
50-64 +67
65+ +113
Conclusions:
1. If YouGov are to be believed, both Labour and Corbyn have made progress this week.
2. According to these particular data sets, Labour's progress has been swiftest amongst the youngest. It slows as you move up the age profile of the electorate. The Tory lead amongst pensioners has barely changed at all.
3. Corbyn appears to have closed the gap with May a little, but he's still ahead only with the youngest voters. May is comfortably ahead with the 25-49 group, miles ahead with the 50-64's, and light years ahead with pensioners.