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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call

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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    isam said:

    HaroldO said:

    Andrew Neil on Tories' social care plan: "A stealth inheritance tax of 100% on everything above £100,000."

    PB Tories shouting at TV "Its not a Tax"

    Viewers cant hear

    A 100% Stealth tax is theft in my view

    Wait, tax is theft?
    PB Lefties will be joining with the Bow Group and the Delingpoles of this world soon
    It is amazing what people will agree or disagree with depending on who said it
    I would agree with you, but you are a gooner, so I can't... oh or can I... it's so dis-orientating on PB at the moment...
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    So it destroys Corbyn's defence, then. The lie that he did all that stuff to encourage peace has to be nailed.

    It puzzles me why the Tories haven't gone after him on this.
    I think he voted in favour.
    I also think some papers have been muddying the water by talking about Anglo Irish agreement which he opposed. I think Dinner From, UUP and DUP also opposed that one.

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    Thought that was going to be a Bernard Manning joke!
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    Pretty bad Corbyn clip from 2 years ago.
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    Andrew Neil on Tories' social care plan: "A stealth inheritance tax of 100% on everything above £100,000."

    PB Tories shouting at TV "Its not a Tax"

    Viewers cant hear

    A 100% Stealth tax is theft in my view

    How can it be a 'stealth' tax if we're discussing it?
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,995

    Pretty bad Corbyn clip from 2 years ago.

    In which he condemns ALL bombing. ALL presumably includes the IRA.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Jason said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
    Or, to put it another way, "I was wrong to say he voted against". Are you a politician or something?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    edited May 2017
    isam said:

    Thought that was going to be a Bernard Manning joke!
    20% of Social Care is Residential

    80% receive Care at home. Their house was 100% safe before the Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Policy,

    Social Care needs to be paid for by the many not the few.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,931
    Barnesian said:

    Pretty bad Corbyn clip from 2 years ago.

    In which he condemns ALL bombing. ALL presumably includes the IRA.
    Basically he thinks that the British State were as bad as the IRA
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Jason said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
    I was merely making a factual clarification.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Barnesian said:

    In which he condemns ALL bombing. ALL presumably includes the IRA.

    And yet, he can never actually bring himself to say that.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @MyBurningEars
    I know that he doesn't want an outright ban, but my point was that it does want to impose his morality on others, he just wants to do it in the form of restrictions as opposed an outright ban. Right now there are already limits on when you can have an abortion, he wants further restrictions on top of that. That's not really having a ''private view but allowing others to do as they please''.

    I have to disagree with you, re Farron's position on abortion being consistent with liberal principles. Generally, a view of the unborn as human beings with 'rights' (before 24 weeks) is a socially Conservative position. Liberals, have erred towards advocating the position of the mother's right to autonomy over her body (this is even in the case of those who morally disagree with abortion on the Left - e.g. Joe Biden in the States), and it is not really a liberal position to see a weeks old ''unborn'' as a human being with the exact same rights as its mother.

    In regard to foxes being others, well I'm talking about that within the context of modern social liberalism, not necessarily what country folk think, as they don't tend to be very liberal anyway.

    I've also not advocated people facing jail time for killing foxes, so I don't know where that's come up. Just that it is doing harm to a living being when you hunt a fox. That was literally my point.

    I've also not advocated for late-term abortion on demand, so I don't know where that's come up either.

    When he won the leadership I don't think many knew about these views he had - most saw him as way more to the left of the party than Clegg. His views on abortion, homosexuality, and fox hunting complicates that.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    TudorRose said:

    Andrew Neil on Tories' social care plan: "A stealth inheritance tax of 100% on everything above £100,000."

    PB Tories shouting at TV "Its not a Tax"

    Viewers cant hear

    A 100% Stealth tax is theft in my view

    How can it be a 'stealth' tax if we're discussing it?
    Some are complaining it's been too honest and should have been hidden
    Others are complaining it's hidden and stealth tax.

    What it does show is why making 'big' commitments on decade-long thorny issues is 'brave' in the febrile atmosphere of a General Election.... I hope they stick it through rather than kick it bank in to the long-grass yet again.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Theresa May is not a Social Democrat.

    Take a look at her policies and give her Labour branding and you'll realise she is. It's why I think the party will dump her once Brexit is finalised.
    I think she's way more statist than your average Tory, but there are a number of her policies that Social Democrats (generally) wouldn't pursue.

    For example:

    - Her desire to regulate the Internet, especially in regard to countering the dangers of 'pornography'
    - Her social care policy
    - Her desire to leave the Single Market
    - Her immigration target

    If the party dumps her after Brexit, who could they replace her with?
    She is socially conservative but economically social democrat. Or, more likely, doesn't have any particularly strong views on the economy and is simply going where she thinks Brexit points her.
    It's the latter.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    isam said:

    Thought that was going to be a Bernard Manning joke!
    20% of Social Care is Residential

    80% receive Care at home. Their house was 100% safe before the Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Policy,

    Social Care needs to be paid for by the many not the few.
    Well those receiving it now and shortly in the future haven't paid for it.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited May 2017

    Jason said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
    Or, to put it another way, "I was wrong to say he voted against". Are you a politician or something?
    No, I said it was my understanding, could anyone verifty it. Please read what I said. Are YOU a politican?

    What I also said is it does not absolve in any way his association with a terrorist organisation. Like everyone keeps saying, perception is everything, only Corbyn giving succour to the IRA is not a perception - it is an incontrovertible fact.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    TudorRose said:

    Andrew Neil on Tories' social care plan: "A stealth inheritance tax of 100% on everything above £100,000."

    PB Tories shouting at TV "Its not a Tax"

    Viewers cant hear

    A 100% Stealth tax is theft in my view

    How can it be a 'stealth' tax if we're discussing it?
    Shh
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    Jason said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
    But it does mean your previous post was a lie
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    rkrkrk said:

    Jason said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
    I was merely making a factual clarification.
    So was I.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    Hmm, just spent a bit of time researching this and there were several votes for several things NI-related around the same time. He certainly spoke against the GFA but I can't find Hansard online that far back. Certainly he voted against the previous Anglo-Irish Agreement, there may be some confusion between the two.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    80% receive Care at home.

    What are the families doing?

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    Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169

    isam said:

    Thought that was going to be a Bernard Manning joke!
    20% of Social Care is Residential

    80% receive Care at home. Their house was 100% safe before the Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Policy
    Is this exempt from contribution currently? Should it be? Many families already pay privately for care at home.

    As has been pointed out by another poster many people who are cared for at home eventually have to move to residential care.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    FPT:

    YouGov - regional swings


    Con lead (diff 18/19 vs 16/17 May)

    Lon: -10 (-13)
    Sou: +22 (+1)
    Mid: +11 (+1)
    Nth: -14 (-11)
    Sc: +6 (-)

    Colour me sceptical - but there are some huge internal swings, while other regions haven't budged.....

    Well regional effects can be weird. I feel a lot more left wing when I am visiting London than I do in the home counties market town where I live.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873

    A Neil where will the £8Bn come from.

    You have a black hole then


    No answer No answer No answer


    Car Crash

    To be fair, Gauke did essentially say, 'Trust us, we're Tories'.
    Thats what the Tory leaflet deliverer told me when I asked him if he had come for my disabled wifes house!!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Scott_P said:
    Yes, that's basically how I see it as well.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    isam said:

    Thought that was going to be a Bernard Manning joke!
    20% of Social Care is Residential

    80% receive Care at home. Their house was 100% safe before the Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Policy,

    Social Care needs to be paid for by the many not the few.
    That's the case at present. The objection to the Conservatives' policy seems to be that the cost is being shared more widely than it is at present.
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    Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, that's basically how I see it as well.
    What is your solution to the problem?
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    tlg86 said:

    Andrew Neil on Tories' social care plan: "A stealth inheritance tax of 100% on everything above £100,000."

    PB Tories shouting at TV "Its not a Tax"

    Viewers cant hear

    A 100% Stealth tax is theft in my view

    Sounds like you're in the wrong party.
    Which party should hypocrites be in?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Jason said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
    But it does mean your previous post was a lie

    'It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water. '

    Where is the lie here? I asked a legitimate question. 'Can anyone verify this?' is a clue.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Sandpit said:


    That is probably the most difficult scenario, to which the answer is that the doctors should deliver the baby at the latest stage possible and do all they can to preserve life.

    Preserve the life of who - the mother or the baby?

    Personally, I think your view on abortion is a bit extreme. I don't think we should let mothers die otherwise, pregnancy becomes this huge death risk. As a woman I'd like to think our value extends outside of simply being incubators - especially since I can't have kids, biologically at least.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289
    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
    Or, to put it another way, "I was wrong to say he voted against". Are you a politician or something?
    No, I said it was my understanding, could anyone verifty it. Please read what I said. Are YOU a politican?

    What I also said is it does not absolve in any way his association with a terrorist organisation. Like everyone keeps saying, perception is everything, only Corbyn giving succour to the IRA is not a perception - it is an incontrovertible fact.
    All this IRA stuff is a) old and b) undermined by the revelation that the Tory government was talking to the IRA at the same time as both criticising others for doing so and dubbing actors' voices over any SF spokesman who appeared on the news. There are big issues with Corbyn's fitness to lead, starting with the obvious fact that he doesn't even have the confidence of most of his own party colleagues. But I don't see this one getting much traction.
  • Options
    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    TudorRose said:

    Andrew Neil on Tories' social care plan: "A stealth inheritance tax of 100% on everything above £100,000."

    PB Tories shouting at TV "Its not a Tax"

    Viewers cant hear

    A 100% Stealth tax is theft in my view

    How can it be a 'stealth' tax if we're discussing it?
    Some are complaining it's been too honest and should have been hidden
    Others are complaining it's hidden and stealth tax.

    What it does show is why making 'big' commitments on decade-long thorny issues is 'brave' in the febrile atmosphere of a General Election.... I hope they stick it through rather than kick it bank in to the long-grass yet again.
    I agree; now that pensions funding is to some extent 'resolved' it was the next issue that needed long term political commitment, followed by the NHS (which I suspect won't be properly addressed anytime in the next decade).

    The best analogy I can come up with for the manifesto commitment is that it's a bit like turning over a stone that everyone suspects has a scorpion under it just before you're about to walk past it. Brave, yes, but why not wait until you've got to the other side?
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    On topic: no, @MikeSmithson, the election remains easy to call. At Bob Worcester says: look at the share, not the lead. All the polling since the election was called has been consistent with a Tory share of 45-46 points with the occasional outlier. As long as that remains the case, a comfortable majority is certain because the smaller and regional parties aren't getting squeezed below 15% combined at the very least, and unlikely to get squeezed below 18%. 45-37 is still a comfortable majority.

    See last night's thread where somebody (@Black_Rook perhaps?) crunched the numbers in detail.
  • Options
    Sporting's mid-spread on Tory seats this morning is 387, while Spreadex's is 388. (They go 173 and 170 respectively as regards Labour seats.)
    Their average therefore of 387.5 Tory seats is equivalent to the Blue Team scoring an overall majority of 125 seats. Against such a background, I'm not sure exactly what all the excitement is about.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
    Or, to put it another way, "I was wrong to say he voted against". Are you a politician or something?
    No, I said it was my understanding, could anyone verifty it. Please read what I said. Are YOU a politican?

    What I also said is it does not absolve in any way his association with a terrorist organisation. Like everyone keeps saying, perception is everything, only Corbyn giving succour to the IRA is not a perception - it is an incontrovertible fact.
    Nick Palmer is indeed a politician ;)
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Palmer
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    You want minimum wage workers in bedsits to subsidise people with hundreds of thousands of pounds in assets, so clearly you don't.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2017
    Corbyn's opposition to the Anglo-Irish agreement:
    http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1985/nov/27/anglo-irish-agreement#S6CV0087P0_19851127_HOC_294

    Seems to be getting confused with 98.

    He was (is?) a Republican, thus an agreement maintaining NI as part of the UK was to be opposed.
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    YouGov:

    Preventing a referendum on Scottish independence until after the Brexit process has been completed England (Scotland)
    Good idea : 55 (47)
    Wrong priority : 23 (37)

    I'm a bit puzzled by these questions: "good idea" and "wrong priority" are not antonyms.
  • Options
    Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    Does this include tax on assets?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    I'd like to see some polling:

    1. There was previously a risk that the amount that you can leave to your family after taking account of your care costs for the rest of your life would be reduced to £23k. With this new proposal from the Conservatives, you can be sure that up to £100k will be available to leave to them. Do you think this is a good idea?

    2. There was previously a risk that you would have to sell and leave your home to cover your care costs. That risk has now gone away, for both you and your spouse. Do you think this is a good idea?

    3. In order to achieve 1 and 2 above, the Government is proposing that the value of all your assets - including your home - be included when assessing how much of a contribution you have to make to your own care costs for the rest of your life. Do you think this is fair?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    I was hoping I'd have a nice simple election to bet on with the Tories smashing everyone else out the park.

    Why couldn't they have consulted Emmanuel Macron on how to take a commanding position, and extend it ?

    Amateurs mean I'm actually going to have to check my positions now. It's a headache I could do without.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,632
    edited May 2017
    Melanie Onn coming across very well on Yorkshire Sunday Politics. Future leader? (If she keeps her seat)
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873

    isam said:

    Thought that was going to be a Bernard Manning joke!
    20% of Social Care is Residential

    80% receive Care at home. Their house was 100% safe before the Pound Shop Thatcher House Snatcher Policy
    Is this exempt from contribution currently? Should it be? Many families already pay privately for care at home.

    As has been pointed out by another poster many people who are cared for at home eventually have to move to residential care.
    Most dont and are shocked their house is now in play
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    Hmm, just spent a bit of time researching this and there were several votes for several things NI-related around the same time. He certainly spoke against the GFA but I can't find Hansard online that far back. Certainly he voted against the previous Anglo-Irish Agreement, there may be some confusion between the two.
    I think there were plenty of amendments - it's possible he voted against the government on some of those. But his speech and vote are a pretty clear endorsement of the final bill. If you can find those links it would be interesting - I could imagine him pushing the government further on prisoners rights for instance...
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344



    Tbf on abortion he did state he wanted restrictions on it: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/16/tim-farron-says-hes-pro-choice-after-2007-interview-emerges

    Fox Hunting well, affects foxes - so it's kind of not the same as having personally negative views on homosexuality but not imposing them via law. If you advocate for Fox Hunting, or at least don't want to get rid of it, then it will obviously affect foxes.

    Hunting is coming up on the doorstep more often than I'd expected - it's seen as a marker issue and the wish to reopen the subject is seen as a hard-right preoccupation even by people with no strong views themselves. I'm not sure most people know what Farron thinks but May's opening the door has put off some potential Tory voters in the suburbs. In particular it reinforces the "stop the landslide" meme, as it's an example of the sort of thing that a huge Tory majority could do which otherwise won't happen.

    I jad a classic floating voter yesterday. Pleasant and interesting woman. Voted Lab in 2010, UKIP in 2015. Family stilll Lab. Likes her Labour MP. Thinks Corbyn weak. Dislikes Europe. Doesn't like the Tories. Likes May's care proposals. Loves animals, hates hunting. Has no idea whether she'll vote Lab, UKIP or Tory.
  • Options
    Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169

    I'd like to see some polling:

    1. There was previously a risk that the amount that you can leave to your family after taking account of your care costs for the rest of your life would be reduced to £23k. With this new proposal from the Conservatives, you can be sure that up to £100k will be available to leave to them. Do you think this is a good idea?

    2. There was previously a risk that you would have to sell and leave your home to cover your care costs. That risk has now gone away, for both you and your spouse. Do you think this is a good idea?

    3. In order to achieve 1 and 2 above, the Government is proposing that the value of all your assets - including your home - be included when assessing how much of a contribution you have to make to your own care costs for the rest of your life. Do you think this is fair?

    Quite
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, that's basically how I see it as well.
    What is your solution to the problem?
    Not say it before an election.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
    But it does mean your previous post was a lie

    'It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water. '

    Where is the lie here? I asked a legitimate question. 'Can anyone verify this?' is a clue.
    OK apologies your previous undestanding was wrong.

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    Does this include tax on assets?
    There are two problems with funding it out of general taxation:-

    1. Younger people, who've been far harder hit by austerity than older people, will be hit again.

    2. Taxing income to protect capital is bad economics,
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    He didn't look very angry to me. In fact he looked and sounded very credible.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    I was hoping I'd have a nice simple election to bet on with the Tories smashing everyone else out the park.

    Why couldn't they have consulted Emmanuel Macron on how to take a commanding position, and extend it ?

    Amateurs mean I'm actually going to have to check my positions now. It's a headache I could do without.

    But is Theresa May Macron or Fillon? Macron only won because Fillon imploded. Fillon was long odds-on until it emerged he was paying his wife to put the bins out.
  • Options
    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    IanB2 said:

    Jason said:

    Jason said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
    Or, to put it another way, "I was wrong to say he voted against". Are you a politician or something?
    No, I said it was my understanding, could anyone verifty it. Please read what I said. Are YOU a politican?

    What I also said is it does not absolve in any way his association with a terrorist organisation. Like everyone keeps saying, perception is everything, only Corbyn giving succour to the IRA is not a perception - it is an incontrovertible fact.
    All this IRA stuff is a) old and b) undermined by the revelation that the Tory government was talking to the IRA at the same time as both criticising others for doing so and dubbing actors' voices over any SF spokesman who appeared on the news. There are big issues with Corbyn's fitness to lead, starting with the obvious fact that he doesn't even have the confidence of most of his own party colleagues. But I don't see this one getting much traction.
    Well, he did make an equivalence between the British Amy and the IRA. We all just heard him do so in that radio interview on TSP. I wonder how many pensioners are aware of that.

    Of course, the Army did some bad things back then - but Corbyn is putting himself forward as a potenital PM, not as a private individual cosying up to his preferred side in the Troubles. He was squarely against the British state.

    This stuff will not go away, and nor should it.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,259

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, that's basically how I see it as well.
    What is your solution to the problem?
    It is worse than an IHT on everything over £100K. Because you won't pay any of it if you are one of the lucky ones who gets through life without needing substantial social care.

    At least a real IHT stealth tax would apply to everyone who had the requisite level of asset, not just the ones who are unlucky.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,873
    Pulpstar said:

    I was hoping I'd have a nice simple election to bet on with the Tories smashing everyone else out the park.

    Why couldn't they have consulted Emmanuel Macron on how to take a commanding position, and extend it ?

    Amateurs mean I'm actually going to have to check my positions now. It's a headache I could do without.

    Surely you will be OK overall

    Those who were bullish on total seats spreads have a bigger headache.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, that's basically how I see it as well.
    What is your solution to the problem?
    Not say it before an election.
    But they need to get round the potental obstacle of the House of Pensioners. Which needs a clear reference in the manifesto.
  • Options
    Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169



    Tbf on abortion he did state he wanted restrictions on it: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/16/tim-farron-says-hes-pro-choice-after-2007-interview-emerges

    Fox Hunting well, affects foxes - so it's kind of not the same as having personally negative views on homosexuality but not imposing them via law. If you advocate for Fox Hunting, or at least don't want to get rid of it, then it will obviously affect foxes.

    Hunting is coming up on the doorstep more often than I'd expected - it's seen as a marker issue and the wish to reopen the subject is seen as a hard-right preoccupation even by people with no strong views themselves. I'm not sure most people know what Farron thinks but May's opening the door has put off some potential Tory voters in the suburbs. In particular it reinforces the "stop the landslide" meme, as it's an example of the sort of thing that a huge Tory majority could do which otherwise won't happen.

    I jad a classic floating voter yesterday. Pleasant and interesting woman. Voted Lab in 2010, UKIP in 2015. Family stilll Lab. Likes her Labour MP. Thinks Corbyn weak. Dislikes Europe. Doesn't like the Tories. Likes May's care proposals. Loves animals, hates hunting. Has no idea whether she'll vote Lab, UKIP or Tory.
    Aren't most people like this? Political and social views are informed by our life experiences and relationships rather than dogma.

    By the way, I think your move to Compassion in World Farming is an excellent one. I hope you will be able to achieve good things.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Sean_F said:

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    Does this include tax on assets?
    There are two problems with funding it out of general taxation:-

    1. Younger people, who've been far harder hit by austerity than older people, will be hit again.

    2. Taxing income to protect capital is bad economics,
    Axing the triple lock and WFA (two policies directly related to retired people) will save enough money to pump into social care, at least in the short to medium term.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830



    Tbf on abortion he did state he wanted restrictions on it: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/16/tim-farron-says-hes-pro-choice-after-2007-interview-emerges

    Fox Hunting well, affects foxes - so it's kind of not the same as having personally negative views on homosexuality but not imposing them via law. If you advocate for Fox Hunting, or at least don't want to get rid of it, then it will obviously affect foxes.

    Hunting is coming up on the doorstep more often than I'd expected - it's seen as a marker issue and the wish to reopen the subject is seen as a hard-right preoccupation even by people with no strong views themselves. I'm not sure most people know what Farron thinks but May's opening the door has put off some potential Tory voters in the suburbs. In particular it reinforces the "stop the landslide" meme, as it's an example of the sort of thing that a huge Tory majority could do which otherwise won't happen.

    I jad a classic floating voter yesterday. Pleasant and interesting woman. Voted Lab in 2010, UKIP in 2015. Family stilll Lab. Likes her Labour MP. Thinks Corbyn weak. Dislikes Europe. Doesn't like the Tories. Likes May's care proposals. Loves animals, hates hunting. Has no idea whether she'll vote Lab, UKIP or Tory.
    Interesting.

    I think you're right that Fox Hunting thing is seen as a hard-right preoccupation, most people don't care about it, and if they express a view, it's for keeping the ban. It also undermines May's attempts to appear centrist.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    I'd like to see some polling:

    1. There was previously a risk that the amount that you can leave to your family after taking account of your care costs for the rest of your life would be reduced to £23k. With this new proposal from the Conservatives, you can be sure that up to £100k will be available to leave to them. Do you think this is a good idea?

    2. There was previously a risk that you would have to sell and leave your home to cover your care costs. That risk has now gone away, for both you and your spouse. Do you think this is a good idea?

    3. In order to achieve 1 and 2 above, the Government is proposing that the value of all your assets - including your home - be included when assessing how much of a contribution you have to make to your own care costs for the rest of your life. Do you think this is fair?


    All true. But until last Thursday I doubt more than 10% knew the current situation or that more than 0.1% were going to see it as an election issue. Telling people "your house is less in play than it was" is a useless defence against the blissful ignorance they were in till last Thursday when it hadn't even crossed their minds.

    This is policy wonks off their reservation and finding out the real world doesnt think like them.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Pulpstar said:

    I was hoping I'd have a nice simple election to bet on with the Tories smashing everyone else out the park.

    Why couldn't they have consulted Emmanuel Macron on how to take a commanding position, and extend it ?

    Amateurs mean I'm actually going to have to check my positions now. It's a headache I could do without.

    Surely you will be OK overall

    Those who were bullish on total seats spreads have a bigger headache.
    Probably but I could have done without Theresa's stupid dementia tax.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, that's basically how I see it as well.
    What is your solution to the problem?
    Not say it before an election.
    But they need to get round the potental obstacle of the House of Pensioners. Which needs a clear reference in the manifesto.
    Not really "we will take necessary steps to ensure a fully funded social care system within the UK, a royal commission will be set up to report this time next year on the best way to do this". That's literally all they needed to say, make the royal commission report come out with the these conclusions.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,028
    Pulpstar said:

    I was hoping I'd have a nice simple election to bet on with the Tories smashing everyone else out the park.

    Why couldn't they have consulted Emmanuel Macron on how to take a commanding position, and extend it ?

    Amateurs mean I'm actually going to have to check my positions now. It's a headache I could do without.

    In the first round Macron only won by 3% and trailed Le Pen in the regions overall, he only won the big landslide in the runoff when he was head to head with Le Pen, the UK system prevents May going head to head with Corbyn
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Put the handbrake on and turn the car around now !
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chestnut said:

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    You want minimum wage workers in bedsits to subsidise people with hundreds of thousands of pounds in assets, so clearly you don't.
    Please explain. Minimum wage workers, by definition, would be on the lowest tax band. Are you saying, the basic rate of tax should be cut and some form of wealth tax should be brought in ?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    welshowl said:

    I'd like to see some polling:

    1. There was previously a risk that the amount that you can leave to your family after taking account of your care costs for the rest of your life would be reduced to £23k. With this new proposal from the Conservatives, you can be sure that up to £100k will be available to leave to them. Do you think this is a good idea?

    2. There was previously a risk that you would have to sell and leave your home to cover your care costs. That risk has now gone away, for both you and your spouse. Do you think this is a good idea?

    3. In order to achieve 1 and 2 above, the Government is proposing that the value of all your assets - including your home - be included when assessing how much of a contribution you have to make to your own care costs for the rest of your life. Do you think this is fair?


    All true. But until last Thursday I doubt more than 10% knew the current situation or that more than 0.1% were going to see it as an election issue. Telling people "your house is less in play than it was" is a useless defence against the blissful ignorance they were in till last Thursday when it hadn't even crossed their minds.

    This is policy wonks off their reservation and finding out the real world doesnt think like them.
    Well, now people have to think about it.

    Maybe that is what a General Election campaign should properly be about? Thinking about big ticket items?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,259
    welshowl said:

    I'd like to see some polling:

    1. There was previously a risk that the amount that you can leave to your family after taking account of your care costs for the rest of your life would be reduced to £23k. With this new proposal from the Conservatives, you can be sure that up to £100k will be available to leave to them. Do you think this is a good idea?

    2. There was previously a risk that you would have to sell and leave your home to cover your care costs. That risk has now gone away, for both you and your spouse. Do you think this is a good idea?

    3. In order to achieve 1 and 2 above, the Government is proposing that the value of all your assets - including your home - be included when assessing how much of a contribution you have to make to your own care costs for the rest of your life. Do you think this is fair?


    All true. But until last Thursday I doubt more than 10% knew the current situation or that more than 0.1% were going to see it as an election issue. Telling people "your house is less in play than it was" is a useless defence against the blissful ignorance they were in till last Thursday when it hadn't even crossed their minds.

    This is policy wonks off their reservation and finding out the real world doesnt think like them.
    How many in the Tory party were involved in the decision to scrap a lifetime cap? Seems maybe about three people. Rest of party now scrambling to come up with reasons why this was a good idea (Green) or why it might be consulted on further (Boris).
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    edited May 2017
    Mr. Owls, I'm glad the seat markets (ie bands of totals rather than constituencies) I've bet on are the Lib Dems only and not the blues or reds. Actually, the Labour resurgence is, if anything, making likelier the yellows will get under 20 seats.

    As for consulting Macron for advice on keeping a large lead, that was entirely unnecessary. The idea of introducing a sudden policy without proper forewarning or examination of the detail, in a sensitive area that directly affects those most likely to vote is so obviously stupid you'd need to be a grade A moron to just jam it in at the last moment over the objections of others.

    Even if people believe the policy is actually fair (I am unpersuaded), it's not gone down well in campaign terms.

    Edited extra bit: this exempts the 7 I backed for the Conservatives to get 350-374 seats, but that was after Theresa May decided to try and be the political equivalent of Brewster. Down to 5.5 now.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    I think that given her health history that's an incredibly insensitive way to describe Isabel Oakeshott
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    chestnut said:

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    You want minimum wage workers in bedsits to subsidise people with hundreds of thousands of pounds in assets, so clearly you don't.
    they don't pay income tax.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    nunu said:
    She's stupid, it's already here and has been for years.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    From a betting perspective this was probably the most interesting thing in the papers today.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/866067850661949440

    I mean targeting Leeds East should have set off alarm bells
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    edited May 2017
    Jason: And now you're wriggling from one post to another, like a slithery politician :). In your original post you said:

    "So it destroys Corbyn's defence, then. The lie that he did all that stuff to encourage peace has to be nailed."

    Not an impartial searcher for truth, as you now suggest. But the actual terminological inexactititude came from Sandpit, who stated flatly that Corbyn voted against and it was in the Parliamentary record when he voted in favour.

    I suspect that you weren't deliberately lying and just seized on that to reinforce your instinctive prejudices (and that Sandpit also wasn't deliberately lying, just too lazy to check). But, instead of saying "OK, that was wrong", you wriggled instantly into attacking Corbyn on something else.

    It doesn't really matter, as you're both anonymous blokes nattering on a message board. But we try to pull each other up when something is actually wrong, and it's better to admit it.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Sandpit said:


    That is probably the most difficult scenario, to which the answer is that the doctors should deliver the baby at the latest stage possible and do all they can to preserve life.

    Preserve the life of who - the mother or the baby?

    Personally, I think your view on abortion is a bit extreme. I don't think we should let mothers die otherwise, pregnancy becomes this huge death risk. As a woman I'd like to think our value extends outside of simply being incubators - especially since I can't have kids, biologically at least.
    I think that doctors should seek to preserve life, so in your scenario they should deliver the baby as late as possible while still preserving the mother's life, then make every effort to save the child. Modern neonatal care sees babies born from as little as 20 weeks survive.

    It's often too easy for the medics to take the easy way out in these scenarios, my view is that doctors should not actively seek to end life, rather they should seek to preserve it.

    Sadly increased availability of abortion on demand has reduced substantially the number of babies available for adoption. From a purely financial point of view, I also don't understand why there are abortions being carried out at one end of the hospital, and expensive fertility treatments at the other end - both on the NHS.

    The Catholic Church used to look after young women who fell pregnant and were deserted by the father, Sadly their adoption agencies were shut down because they didn't believe in placing babies with homosexual couples.

    Sorry to hear of your personal situation, from my own experience these things are not so simple even when the doctors say that all the bits are working properly.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Theresa May is not a Social Democrat.

    with this social care policy and the religious pay aduit, energy cap etc etc she is.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,850
    welshowl said:

    I'd like to see some polling:

    1. There was previously a risk that the amount that you can leave to your family after taking account of your care costs for the rest of your life would be reduced to £23k. With this new proposal from the Conservatives, you can be sure that up to £100k will be available to leave to them. Do you think this is a good idea?

    2. There was previously a risk that you would have to sell and leave your home to cover your care costs. That risk has now gone away, for both you and your spouse. Do you think this is a good idea?

    3. In order to achieve 1 and 2 above, the Government is proposing that the value of all your assets - including your home - be included when assessing how much of a contribution you have to make to your own care costs for the rest of your life. Do you think this is fair?


    All true. But until last Thursday I doubt more than 10% knew the current situation or that more than 0.1% were going to see it as an election issue. Telling people "your house is less in play than it was" is a useless defence against the blissful ignorance they were in till last Thursday when it hadn't even crossed their minds.

    This is policy wonks off their reservation and finding out the real world doesnt think like them.
    In my experience, as a solicitor, the cost of residential care is a considerable worry for older people.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    The reason why nothern working class labour voters find it so easy to vote for her is becuase she is indeed a social democrat.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited May 2017

    welshowl said:

    I'd like to see some polling:

    1. There was previously a risk that the amount that you can leave to your family after taking account of your care costs for the rest of your life would be reduced to £23k. With this new proposal from the Conservatives, you can be sure that up to £100k will be available to leave to them. Do you think this is a good idea?

    2. There was previously a risk that you would have to sell and leave your home to cover your care costs. That risk has now gone away, for both you and your spouse. Do you think this is a good idea?

    3. In order to achieve 1 and 2 above, the Government is proposing that the value of all your assets - including your home - be included when assessing how much of a contribution you have to make to your own care costs for the rest of your life. Do you think this is fair?


    All true. But until last Thursday I doubt more than 10% knew the current situation or that more than 0.1% were going to see it as an election issue. Telling people "your house is less in play than it was" is a useless defence against the blissful ignorance they were in till last Thursday when it hadn't even crossed their minds.

    This is policy wonks off their reservation and finding out the real world doesnt think like them.
    How many in the Tory party were involved in the decision to scrap a lifetime cap? Seems maybe about three people. Rest of party now scrambling to come up with reasons why this was a good idea (Green) or why it might be consulted on further (Boris).
    Boris pointedly didn't confirm on Peston if cabinet had been consulted on this "we're consulted on all sorts of things" was pretty much his phrase. So they were in the dark. I imagine Lyndon Crosby is eviscerating those responsible for putting in at the last minute right now.

    Can't fathom out why they can't say on the WFA "all pensioners on less than £x are not going to be worse off". Would take the heat out of that one ('scuse pun).
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Jason said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    It doesn't absolve him of his past associations with the IRA.
    But it does mean your previous post was a lie
    Harsh to say lie. Just a mistake I think.
    And not surprising given the negativity towards Corbyn in some parts of the media.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    You want minimum wage workers in bedsits to subsidise people with hundreds of thousands of pounds in assets, so clearly you don't.
    Please explain. Minimum wage workers, by definition, would be on the lowest tax band. Are you saying, the basic rate of tax should be cut and some form of wealth tax should be brought in ?
    BJO is arguing for collective taxation (from us all presumably) to pay for free care for people with vast amounts of wealth, so the situation where someone gets paid £7.50 an hour for a full time job leads to their taxes funding the wealthy.

    That isn't 'progressive' at all.

    Nor are winter fuel payments for millionaires and nor are free tuition fees that most benefit students who will go on to earn over £100k a year.

    These are all Labour policy at the moment.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    nunu said:

    chestnut said:

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    You want minimum wage workers in bedsits to subsidise people with hundreds of thousands of pounds in assets, so clearly you don't.
    they don't pay income tax.
    They pay many (too many) other taxes.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Have to say George leaving Parliament is the most regretful decision of this election campaign. He would easily have been the front runner to depose and replace SDP Theresa in 2020 once Brexit was complete. Now I don't know if there is anyone left in the party who can take her down, maybe Javid?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    nunu said:

    chestnut said:

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    You want minimum wage workers in bedsits to subsidise people with hundreds of thousands of pounds in assets, so clearly you don't.
    they don't pay income tax.
    I expect they pay VAT though.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    welshowl said:

    I'd like to see some polling:

    1. There was previously a risk that the amount that you can leave to your family after taking account of your care costs for the rest of your life would be reduced to £23k. With this new proposal from the Conservatives, you can be sure that up to £100k will be available to leave to them. Do you think this is a good idea?

    2. There was previously a risk that you would have to sell and leave your home to cover your care costs. That risk has now gone away, for both you and your spouse. Do you think this is a good idea?

    3. In order to achieve 1 and 2 above, the Government is proposing that the value of all your assets - including your home - be included when assessing how much of a contribution you have to make to your own care costs for the rest of your life. Do you think this is fair?


    All true. But until last Thursday I doubt more than 10% knew the current situation or that more than 0.1% were going to see it as an election issue. Telling people "your house is less in play than it was" is a useless defence against the blissful ignorance they were in till last Thursday when it hadn't even crossed their minds.

    This is policy wonks off their reservation and finding out the real world doesnt think like them.
    How many in the Tory party were involved in the decision to scrap a lifetime cap? Seems maybe about three people. Rest of party now scrambling to come up with reasons why this was a good idea (Green) or why it might be consulted on further (Boris).
    It is in the manifesto and that is because the HoL would have been told you cannot make any changes as it is in the manifesto.

    Regarding Isabel Oakeshott's point that it will not be implemented: she is probably correct. Even with 400 MPs, the shires will be in rebellion.

    Then, the question turns to political judgement. If that will indeed be the outcome, then why go through all the negative publicity.

    Please don't write in that she is some sort of a heroine. Just a lousy politician.
  • Options
    Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    MaxPB said:

    IanB2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    Yes, that's basically how I see it as well.
    What is your solution to the problem?
    Not say it before an election.
    But they need to get round the potental obstacle of the House of Pensioners. Which needs a clear reference in the manifesto.
    Not really "we will take necessary steps to ensure a fully funded social care system within the UK, a royal commission will be set up to report this time next year on the best way to do this". That's literally all they needed to say, make the royal commission report come out with the these conclusions.
    So you are not against it in principle but would just have liked to have taken a cynical approach to it?

    And people wonder why voters are cynical about politicians.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    nunu said:

    chestnut said:

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    You want minimum wage workers in bedsits to subsidise people with hundreds of thousands of pounds in assets, so clearly you don't.
    they don't pay income tax.
    Yes they do. Don't be silly.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,481
    MaxPB said:

    Have to say George leaving Parliament is the most regretful decision of this election campaign. He would easily have been the front runner to depose and replace SDP Theresa in 2020 once Brexit was complete. Now I don't know if there is anyone left in the party who can take her down, maybe Javid?

    Mark Harper or Edward Timpson
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    nunu said:

    Theresa May is not a Social Democrat.

    with this social care policy and the religious pay aduit, energy cap etc etc she is.
    Social Democrats wouldn't advocate this social care policy, they'd be more in favour of pooling risk.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jason said:

    Sandpit said:

    Corbyn outright denies he was on the editorial board of the magazine that published the pro-IRA article. Sophy's making him angry!

    It was my understanding Corbyn voted AGAINST the Good Friday Agreement? Can anyone verify this? If he did, it blows his 'I was doing it for peace' line out of the water.
    Correct, he voted against the Good Friday Agreement. This is in the Parliamentary record.

    I think Andrew Neil might be somewhat harder on this point than the young Sophy, who admitted that this was all before she was born. (Wiki reckons she's 32).
    Are you sure?

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-20&number=340&mpn=Jeremy_Corbyn&mpc=Islington_North&house=commons

    Seems to be him voting in favour?
    Hmm, just spent a bit of time researching this and there were several votes for several things NI-related around the same time. He certainly spoke against the GFA but I can't find Hansard online that far back. Certainly he voted against the previous Anglo-Irish Agreement, there may be some confusion between the two.
    I think there were plenty of amendments - it's possible he voted against the government on some of those. But his speech and vote are a pretty clear endorsement of the final bill. If you can find those links it would be interesting - I could imagine him pushing the government further on prisoners rights for instance...
    You've got me going on this now, have challenged me on something I was certain about having read several times. Will do some more research this afternoon and come back to you, sadly I'm too far away from the Commons research library to dig out old paper Hansard copies.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    nunu said:

    chestnut said:

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    You want minimum wage workers in bedsits to subsidise people with hundreds of thousands of pounds in assets, so clearly you don't.
    they don't pay income tax.
    Thanks to this Government, yes, many more than under Labour don't pay income tax.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,289
    At least Mr Neil won't be short of questions when he meets Mrs M next week.
  • Options
    muckduckmuckduck Posts: 4
    edited May 2017
    labour are still 5/6 to get >172 seats

    given the tories would need to win by 20 points to push labour this low, this is easy money, surely?
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    I'd like to see some polling:

    1. There was previously a risk that the amount that you can leave to your family after taking account of your care costs for the rest of your life would be reduced to £23k. With this new proposal from the Conservatives, you can be sure that up to £100k will be available to leave to them. Do you think this is a good idea?

    2. There was previously a risk that you would have to sell and leave your home to cover your care costs. That risk has now gone away, for both you and your spouse. Do you think this is a good idea?

    3. In order to achieve 1 and 2 above, the Government is proposing that the value of all your assets - including your home - be included when assessing how much of a contribution you have to make to your own care costs for the rest of your life. Do you think this is fair?


    All true. But until last Thursday I doubt more than 10% knew the current situation or that more than 0.1% were going to see it as an election issue. Telling people "your house is less in play than it was" is a useless defence against the blissful ignorance they were in till last Thursday when it hadn't even crossed their minds.

    This is policy wonks off their reservation and finding out the real world doesnt think like them.
    Well, now people have to think about it.

    Maybe that is what a General Election campaign should properly be about? Thinking about big ticket items?
    Yes very true. Very noble. And if TM is there still on June 9th with a decent enough majority fair enough. But presentationally it's a clusterf*** and we all know it.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chestnut said:

    surbiton said:

    chestnut said:

    matt said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Sean_F said:


    That's always the case. All changes produce winners and losers. The people who are angry are those who view the welfare state as a kind of all you can eat buffet, where once you've paid into the system, you're damn well going to claim all you can, rather than viewing it as a safety net.

    Does the all-you-can-eat buffet analogy really apply here? It is not as if people are deliberately getting Alzheimer's or Parkinson's to claim their quota of brain scans.
    Top post but dont expect PB Tories to get it
    The all-you-can-eat buffet analogy is a bit unfortunate, but it isn't wrong in the way you think it is. You think it self-evident that your own money is there for paying for nice things, someone else ought to pay for the consequences of nasty things. Not so: if your house falls down or your car breaks down, that is your lookout unless you have an insurer or a welfare state behind you. At the moment home care is outwith the welfare state and the debate is about whether it is brought within it. Thinking that you can surreptitiously bring it within the welfare state at no extra cost, because it has a sort of NHS-y feel about it, is paying for a fixed price 3 course meal and trying to leverage another two courses out of the restaurant for no extra money.
    Nobody thinks it can be brought in for free. I think pooling is the way forward.

    Much better than theft.
    Pooling is what people euphemistically call tax isn't it? The tax that only the 2% should pay.
    I like Progressive Taxation.

    I think its fairer
    You want minimum wage workers in bedsits to subsidise people with hundreds of thousands of pounds in assets, so clearly you don't.
    Please explain. Minimum wage workers, by definition, would be on the lowest tax band. Are you saying, the basic rate of tax should be cut and some form of wealth tax should be brought in ?
    BJO is arguing for collective taxation (from us all presumably) to pay for free care for people with vast amounts of wealth, so the situation where someone gets paid £7.50 an hour for a full time job leads to their taxes funding the wealthy.

    That isn't 'progressive' at all.

    Nor are winter fuel payments for millionaires and nor are free tuition fees that most benefit students who will go on to earn over £100k a year.

    These are all Labour policy at the moment.
    Not correct. Labour will collect extra money from those earning more than £80k and from companies.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    I'd love to be a fly on the wall at Lynton Crosby's monday morning meeting.

    We had the fergie cup, the Brown Nokia.

    Will it be the Lynton laptop ?
This discussion has been closed.