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He is a Tory. As was Jeremy Paxman.Philip_Thompson said:
Andrew Neil is tough on everyone equally so no wonder lefties in comparison to the rest of the BBC think he is a Tory.surbiton said:
The BBC are shit scared. Always begging to have their charter renewed. Anyway, their news and current affairs are full of Tories.Yorkcity said:
Yes very true the local Itv news gives him fair coverage when he has visited Yorkshire and shows the crowds.Less do the BBC who always seems to find Labour voters who are negative.rural_voter said:
'The Labour party is a moral crusade or it is nothing'. Superb but from Harold Wilson about 50 years ago.Yorkcity said:
Yes he is good on the stump .He had a good reception when he came to York and spoke in the main square.It reminded me of Neil Kinnock speech in 1983 .I warn you not to grow old.Might be the same result seats wise but they both know how to move people.NickPalmer said:To get a taste of why Corbyn is a good stump campigner, see the 2-minute video on
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/21/general-election-2017-tory-wobble-over-social-care-live-updates?page=with:block-592152fce4b0a9ae59335bff#liveblog-navigation
of his speech to a huge crowd at Tranmere's ground. I don't think any Labour sympathiser, even ultra-sceptics, can fail to be a bit moved.
If the media latch onto a positive soundbite, it may get people taking and change votes. I think 'dementia tax' is OK but it's also a bit negative and depresses people, like the Remain campaign did.
I also think he has a more dynamic speaking style at rallies than EdM. By itself, that may be ineffective unless it's widely reported.
Start with a letter A: Andrew Neil.
Try going through the rest of the alphabet. Blank for B to M, N for Neil, Andrew, blank for O to Z.0 -
Getting annoying this from pollsters now. I almost wish we could see Prime Minister Farron waving from the steps of Downing St having swept into coalition with Plaid Cymru who won all 40 seats in Wales ( amazing considering the SNP wipeout ), just to stop pollsters hogging their 15 mins of limelight.nunu said:0 -
Though given the Tories were planning £9 billion that means an extra £2 billion Labour has to findsurbiton said:
Responsible financial stewardship. Having to take difficult decisions.chestnut said:Labour to keep £7bn worth of welfare cuts.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/20/labour-manifesto-keep-planned-tory-benefit-cuts-resolution-foundation0 -
I have not seen the alt-Right PB Tories so rattled as they are today.0
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Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?SeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.Norm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.0 -
There is a small swing to the Tories outside London and a big swing in Scotland, there is a 0.5% swing to Labour in London though which distorts the English figures a bitjustin124 said:Looking at the Yougov tables the Tory lead is shown as 10% in England– effectively unchanged from 2015 and would imply no swing at all there.
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Not sure. This week's subsamplesSandyRentool said:
Opinium: Lab 43 Con 43
Ipsos: Lab 54 Con 28
ORB: Lab 44 Con 37
ICM: Con 48 Lab 28.
I'd guess they're back to neck and neck, or thereabouts.0 -
Parents having their home confiscated to cover the cost of their children's education? A very fair policy (says a non-parent).Nigelb said:
If that's such a big philosophical divide, why does not it apply more generally to healthcare; education etc ? And why is this particular thing not a matter for pooled risk ?Philip_Thompson said:
It's not wealth confiscation. Nothing is being confiscated, some of the wealth that someone has saved through their life is being spent on themselves at the end of their life.Nigelb said:
A good rhetorical point.isam said:
It can however be turned the other way around. If the Tories are OK with the concept of wealth confiscation in particular circumstances, it rather undercuts their opposition to the more general case of higher taxes for the wealthy.
For now, they can rely on the vote for us, at least we're competent argument - but as Major found, that too can eventually be turned against you.
That the left can't understand the difference between someone's wealth being spent on their own care and being taken to spend on others is the big divide between left and right.
Sound like a fairly desperate attempt to provide philosophical underpinnings to what is a policy of financial expedience.0 -
But you voted. And voted Tory. For now, as far as they're concerned, job done.SeanT said:
I never thought I would sincerely type the words "I might vote Labour this time", especially when Labour has its most leftwing leader in many decades. But I typed them, and I meant them.nunu said:
Nick Timothy was also the advocate of brining back grammar schools.SeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.Norm said:
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
How many more are thinking like me, as the postal votes go out? What if this trend continues, and people realise 1. Corbyn could win, and 2. He would deliver Soft Brexit/Single Market?0 -
I think the Tory lead this weekend is down to 7%.0
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Some might say "courageous".SimonStClare said:
Likelihood is that TMay will increase her majority and with the large leads she has, could afford to take a hit in the polls to rebalance the largesse thrown at the grey vote over the past decade. It's a brave move, whether or not you agree with the actual policies.GIN1138 said:
The Tories have completely lost control of the narrative now...jonny83 said:'Dementia Tax' all over the place...
Wasn't this election supposed to be about securing a mandate for Brexit negotiations?
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May has also taken the Tories to 44% and 46% of voteshare precisely because of those UKIP anti immigration voters returning to the blue fold, the idea that you could pursue Brexit without hardish Brexit in the first place was never on the cards, we will be out of the single market until Labour eventually get back in, the Tories are not going to lose all their new voters. If Corbyn got in now we would be leaving the EU but with higher income tax, higher corporation tax, more spending and nationalisations left, right and centre and increased immigration, so we would be Venezuala with more multiculturalism, the precise opposite of what most Leavers whether soft or hard Brexiteers wanted, having been a reluctant Remainer it would be funny but a disaster for the UKSeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes muchNorm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
I rest my case.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.0 -
Are you okay?SeanT said:I never thought I would sincerely type the words "I might vote Labour this time", especially when Labour has its most leftwing leader in many decades. But I typed them, and I meant them.
How many more are thinking like me, as the postal votes go out? What if this trend continues, and people realise 1. Corbyn could win, and 2. He would deliver Soft Brexit/Single Market?
My mum's thinking of voting Labour, after watching McDonnell and Green today on Andrew Marr.0 -
Idiotically, courageous.brokenwheel said:
Some might say "courageous".SimonStClare said:
Likelihood is that TMay will increase her majority and with the large leads she has, could afford to take a hit in the polls to rebalance the largesse thrown at the grey vote over the past decade. It's a brave move, whether or not you agree with the actual policies.GIN1138 said:
The Tories have completely lost control of the narrative now...jonny83 said:'Dementia Tax' all over the place...
Wasn't this election supposed to be about securing a mandate for Brexit negotiations?0 -
I doubt that greatly.surbiton said:I think the Tory lead this weekend is down to 7%.
What is noticeable is the collapse of all the parties outside the main 2.
At the last election, Con+Lab polled 64% in Wales. The latest subsamples are anything up to 88%. Support is coalescing around the main two, except in Scotland.
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Someone needs to start a STOP NICK TIMOTHY campaign.nunu said:
Nick Timothy was also the advocate of brining back grammar schools.SeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.Norm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
His agenda is a DISASTER.0 -
you know what this morning I thought fuck it, I'll vote labour to protest May's manifesto, since either way we are getting a labour government. With the religious pay adauit May is the heir to Harriet Harman.SeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.Jason said:
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?SeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:Norm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
I rest my case.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
She thinks she can take loyal tory voters for granted to win over working class labour voters who have *never* voted tory and for whom admitting it is "akin to a near death experience". Fine, win with them then.0 -
I think you've lost your mind, man.SeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.Jason said:
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?SeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.Norm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
I rest my case.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.0 -
Except Yougov also has voters backing reducing net migration to the tens of thousands by 58% to 26% and Tory voters by a massive 82% to 9%, I am no great fan of it but it was one of the most popular policies in the manifesto, if May now ditched that and went for soft Brexit and lost all those UKIP votes she has won then the Tories would be back down to 37% or so and with Labour on 35% we really would be in hung Parliament territory and a possible Corbyn premiership with the backing of the SNPSeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.Jason said:
Surely your home is with the Lib McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.SeanT said:
Here's a thing. AndJason said:
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.Norm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son .
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wvyc3lofp5/SundayTimesResults_170519_VI_W.pdf0 -
It is a stupid bollox questionThreeQuidder said:
I'm a bit puzzled by these questions: "good idea" and "wrong priority" are not antonyms.CarlottaVance said:YouGov:
Preventing a referendum on Scottish independence until after the Brexit process has been completed England (Scotland)
Good idea : 55 (47)
Wrong priority : 23 (37)0 -
When this policy turns out to be an economic disaster these people will be the first to complain, watch.HYUFD said:
Except Yougov also has voters backing reducing net migration to the tens of thousands by 58% to 26% and Tory voters by a massive 82% to 9%, I am no great fan of it but it was one of the most popular policies in the manifesto, if May now ditched that and went for soft Brexit and lost all those UKIP votes she has won then the Tories would be back down to 37% or so and with Labour on 35% we really would be in hung Parliament territory and a possible Corbyn premiership with the backing of the SNPSeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.Jason said:
Surely your home is with the Lib McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.SeanT said:
Here's a thing. AndJason said:
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.Norm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son .
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wvyc3lofp5/SundayTimesResults_170519_VI_W.pdf0 -
She'd clearly go but it would mean Corbyn plus Sturgeon without Brexit.SeanT said:
Just for fun, consider a result ofchestnut said:
I doubt that greatly.surbiton said:I think the Tory lead this weekend is down to 7%.
What is noticeable is the collapse of all the parties outside the main 2.
At the last election, Con+Lab polled 64% in Wales. The latest subsamples are anything up to 88%. Support is coalescing around the main two, except in Scotland.
Con: 42
Lab: 38
Lib: 6
UKIP: 2
Which seems perfectly possible, as of this afternoon. That produces a Hung Parliament. TMay would actually lose seats, though still be leader of the biggest party. She would have no mandate for her Hard Brexit. The nation's entire negotiating strategy would be in tatters.
Would she even stay on? Try to form a coalition? With whom?
Corbyn, the SNP and Brexit are the Tory's election winning triple lock.
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Tory: Neil, Paxo, Dimbleby. Labour: Marr. HTH.Philip_Thompson said:
Andrew Neil is tough on everyone equally so no wonder lefties in comparison to the rest of the BBC think he is a Tory.surbiton said:
The BBC are shit scared. Always begging to have their charter renewed. Anyway, their news and current affairs are full of Tories.Yorkcity said:
Yes very true the local Itv news gives him fair coverage when he has visited Yorkshire and shows the crowds.Less do the BBC who always seems to find Labour voters who are negative.rural_voter said:
'The Labour party is a moral crusade or it is nothing'. Superb but from Harold Wilson about 50 years ago.Yorkcity said:
Yes he is good on the stump .He had a good reception when he came to York and spoke in the main square.It reminded me of Neil Kinnock speech in 1983 .I warn you not to grow old.Might be the same result seats wise but they both know how to move people.NickPalmer said:To get a taste of why Corbyn is a good stump campigner, see the 2-minute video on
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/21/general-election-2017-tory-wobble-over-social-care-live-updates?page=with:block-592152fce4b0a9ae59335bff#liveblog-navigation
of his speech to a huge crowd at Tranmere's ground. I don't think any Labour sympathiser, even ultra-sceptics, can fail to be a bit moved.
If the media latch onto a positive soundbite, it may get people taking and change votes. I think 'dementia tax' is OK but it's also a bit negative and depresses people, like the Remain campaign did.
I also think he has a more dynamic speaking style at rallies than EdM. By itself, that may be ineffective unless it's widely reported.
Start with a letter A: Andrew Neil.
Try going through the rest of the alphabet. Blank for B to M, N for Neil, Andrew, blank for O to Z.0 -
Swim against the tide!!SeanT said:
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.SandyRentool said:
You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.
Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?0 -
A policy most Tory voters backnunu said:
Nick Timothy was also the advocate of brining back grammar schools.SeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.Norm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.0 -
No. If there is a hint of a chance of a Corbyn government, a lot of waverers will hold their noses and vote May; and the Brexit Tory newcomers who might have stayed at home are more likely to turn out.SeanT said:
0 -
No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.SeanT said:
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.SandyRentool said:
You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.
Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?0 -
Er yeah....ok.SeanT said:
You thought I'd lost my mind when I "over-reacted" to Dementia Tax Winter Fuel Fuck Up. You accused me of hysterical bedwetting, when I said this could be potentially disastrous; you pooh-poohed and chortled, and said it will barely shift the polls.Jason said:
I think you've lost your mind, man.SeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.Jason said:
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?SeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goesNorm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
I rest my case.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
Well, who was right, and who was wrong?
I was right. You were wrong. I am of course a bipolar twit and prone to massive mood swings, but sometimes my moodswings mirror a greater shift out there.0 -
Well, certainly if the final stage of the campaign were to be dominated by a Hard Brexit versus Soft Brexit argument, I'm not convinced it would necessarily be to the Tories' advantage.SeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.0 -
TUD, cuckoo who has probably never been within 500 miles of Scotland, gets all its info from the Daily HeilTheuniondivvie said:
My argument? Perhaps you'd like to point out where I made that argument.HYUFD said:
In 2015 the SNP got 50% and the Tories 15% so your absurd 'SNP support firming up' argument is actually based on a Scottish subsample today from yougov which shows a swing of 9.5% from the SNP to the ToriesTheuniondivvie said:
Great to see you get a feather up your ass about someone else mentioning subsamples tho'.0 -
True, but you're more of a feather in a hurricane than a barometer.SeanT said:
You thought I'd lost my mind when I "over-reacted" to Dementia Tax Winter Fuel Fuck Up. You accused me of hysterical bedwetting, when I said this could be potentially disastrous; you pooh-poohed and chortled, and said it will barely shift the polls.Jason said:
I think you've lost your mind, man.SeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.Jason said:
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?SeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goesNorm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
I rest my case.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
Well, who was right, and who was wrong?
I was right. You were wrong. I am of course a bipolar twit and prone to massive mood swings, but sometimes my moodswings mirror a greater shift out there.
0 -
I have never thought that SeanT has a rational mind, more a sort of auto-rant mechanism, but on this instance I agree with him. If it looks like voting Corbyn will kill Brexit stone dead then I will hold my nose and vote for Corbyn.Jason said:
I think you've lost your mind, man.SeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.Jason said:
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?SeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.Norm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
I rest my case.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.0 -
LOL!!Nigelb said:
True, but you're more of a feather in a hurricane than a barometer.SeanT said:
You thought I'd lost my mind when I "over-reacted" to Dementia Tax Winter Fuel Fuck Up. You accused me of hysterical bedwetting, when I said this could be potentially disastrous; you pooh-poohed and chortled, and said it will barely shift the polls.Jason said:
I think you've lost your mind, man.SeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.Jason said:
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?SeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goesNorm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
I rest my case.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
Well, who was right, and who was wrong?
I was right. You were wrong. I am of course a bipolar twit and prone to massive mood swings, but sometimes my moodswings mirror a greater shift out there.0 -
Max lives in a dream world , he thinks all you minimum wage workers should be eating cake and shutting up.chestnut said:
People without children do not get tax credits thrown at them.MaxPB said:
Around £1500 worth of tax and NI for a full time worker, but you should get working tax credit which will be worth a bit more than that over a year.Torby_Fennel said:
Yes, I am on £7.60 an hour and most certainly paying income tax and NI - and quite rightly so too. It really does blow my mind that there are some people posting on this site who are so out of touch with reality that they think lower income workers don't pay income tax!chestnut said:
Yes it is true.
For the benefit of those who believe minimum wage work is all free:
A worker doing 40 hours at £7.50 an hour receives an annual income tax/NI bill of £1712.32.
Tax credits are child benefit by another name. People without kids on minimum wage get very little, if anything, given to them.0 -
No they won't, they finally have a PM who listens to the bluecollar, socially conservative working class on immigration, that was what took Leave over the line in 2016 and that is why May's new coalition will probably last a decade irrespective of whether she gets a smaller majority than she hoped, Corbyn is up because he is winning some of the 2015 LD vote and a handful of UKIP voters for himself, even Yougov today still has the Tories picking up more 2015 Labour voters than Labour is winning 2015 Tories, added to the majority of UKIP voters backing May that gives her a coalition to last 10 years of around 45%. When Labour eventually get back in then we will get soft Brexit and return to the single market and probably free movement again too but for the next 10 years hardish Brexit of some form it isThe_Apocalypse said:
When this policy turns out to be an economic disaster these people will be the first to complain, watch.HYUFD said:
Except Yougov also has voters backing reducing net migration to the tens of thousands by 58% to 26% and Tory of the SNPSeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.Jason said:
Surely your home is with the Lib McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.SeanT said:
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wvyc3lofp5/SundayTimesResults_170519_VI_W.pdf0 -
Bollox , it si not a subsidy if you have paid through teh nose for more than 40 years.HYUFD said:
Every government and political party tries to gloss up what it does but whether it was called 'the Community Charge' or the 'Poll Tax' it was by definition a tax levied on every resident to pay for local services they may not use, irrespective of whether it was popular or not. The fact that if you have £100k+ of assets you have to pay for your own social care is by definition not a tax as the government is not taking anything from you to pay for others, just stopping a subsidy that would otherwise have paid for your care and that is true whether the new social care policy is popular or notsurbiton said:
Why did the Conservative Party insist on calling it the Community Charge then ?HYUFD said:
That was a poll tax as it was levied per head on individuals to pay for local servicessurbiton said:
Was it a Community charge or was it a POLL TAX ?HYUFD said:
A tax is taking from your income to pay others, losing a lot of state subsidy to pay your own care (beyond support for those with assets under £100k) is not a tax whether voters like it or notbigjohnowls said:Andrew Neil on Tories' social care plan: "A stealth inheritance tax of 100% on everything above £100,000."
PB Tories shouting at TV "Its not a Tax"
Viewers cant hear
A 100% Stealth tax is theft in my view0 -
But that will completely wreck Theresa's 'Strong and Stable' narrative. What will she have left? Not the policies which have proven either toxic or Miliband-esque and the jury's still out on Brexit. Theresa's only selling point will be that she didn't cosy up to Sinn Féin a few decades back. Whoopy doo...MaxPB said:
No I doubt it. If anything the government will recover in the next few days once they U-turn on a few of the bad policies. Everything that has been done can be undone. Boris was clearly preparing the ground for it today on house stealing, I expect it to come for Northern WFA soon as well. That will take the sting out if it and see 15-17 point leads again.SeanT said:
In terms of betting, we need to start seriously considering the remote possibility of a Hung Parliament, and even the outlandish, absurd outcome that is a Corbyn victory.SandyRentool said:
You can get 10/1 against a Hung Parliament. Even though the odds have shortened - for reasons we all know - to me, that still looks like VALUE.
Another 3 point swing to Corbyn, and it's no Overall Majority. Is that really a 10/1 shot?0 -
Correction, Labour and LD voters are massively in favour of staying in the Single Market leaving Free Movement intact, Tory voters, especially with their new UKIP supporters, are notSeanT said:
The voters are also massively in favour of staying in the Single Market, which means Free Movement.HYUFD said:
Except pdfSeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.Jason said:
Surely your home is with the Lib McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.SeanT said:
Here's a thing. AndJason said:
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes much of Labour's manifesto, but didn't like the wild sums being borrowed, and didn't like the Tories' pensioner hit.Norm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son .
So what does it all boil down to? Who will be the most competent PM, who will be fit to represent us on the world stage, who will keep a steady and cool head over the Brexit negotiations.
It's either Theresa May, or a man who has spent most of his adult life railing against the British state, and actively and unashamedly pinning his colours to an organisation that was waging a terrorist campaign against British troops and civilians. I've not even mentioned his connections to anti-Semitism yet.
I rest my case.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.0 -
New thread>>>0
-
Do as the rich do and stick them in trustsSean_F said:
Lots of people will give away surplus capital or income to heirs. Far fewer would actually put themselves in financial jeopardy to do so. Give your assets away, and you lose all control over your future.not_on_fire said:
\Indeed, a fairly obvious strategy is for Gran to sell the family home and buy a flat costing £99k a few months before starting carerottenborough said:
The Government will have to draft something pretty clever to avoid loopholes where people do precisely what was suggested: equity release + give to the kids. If you do it soon enough and have no care needs for several years how are they gonna show it was a disposal for avoiding care costs? Obviously there are IHT issues with this.YBarddCwsc said:
The Council already look at this kind of activity, and if they conclude (I don't know how exactly) that you sold the house to avoid care home fees, then you get billed.not_on_fire said:
So if I take a 100% equity loan on my £500k house, hand it all to the kids and then spend 20 years in care, how do the council get their money back?rottenborough said:
I presume this is already happening as local councils can put a 'charge' on a property for repaying social care bills.not_on_fire said:Surely the elephant in the room re: social care is how these homes are going to be valued? Who will be doing the valuation, is there an appeal process, etc etc? What about the effects of sudden house price increases/decreases?
And the valuation itself will be a big piece of work - revaluaing homes for Council Tax purposes in England was moved into the "too hard" column by Osborne.
Certainly, Equity withdrawal is taking place for other reasons too - funding holiday of lifetime, gift for the kids to get first mortgage etc.
I saw many sad thing when my mother was dying of Parkinson's.
But the saddest of all were the people whose families had shafted them, and sold the house.
They had taken the money and left their mother or father defenceless and moneyless and alone, grappling with monstrosity of our social care system.
They were usually so sick they couldn’t understand what had happened to them, where they were, where their children were or why they had no money any more.0 -
The actual gainer in SeanT's latest scenario is Nicola Sturgeon0
-
I've never seen a convincing argument that Article 50 is revocable, so there will be some kind of Brexit.chestnut said:
She'd clearly go but it would mean Corbyn plus Sturgeon without Brexit.SeanT said:
Just for fun, consider a result ofchestnut said:
I doubt that greatly.surbiton said:I think the Tory lead this weekend is down to 7%.
What is noticeable is the collapse of all the parties outside the main 2.
At the last election, Con+Lab polled 64% in Wales. The latest subsamples are anything up to 88%. Support is coalescing around the main two, except in Scotland.
Con: 42
Lab: 38
Lib: 6
UKIP: 2
Which seems perfectly possible, as of this afternoon. That produces a Hung Parliament. TMay would actually lose seats, though still be leader of the biggest party. She would have no mandate for her Hard Brexit. The nation's entire negotiating strategy would be in tatters.
Would she even stay on? Try to form a coalition? With whom?
Corbyn, the SNP and Brexit are the Tory's election winning triple lock.
It might actually be quite healthy if this election campaign crystallised around the issue of which kind of Brexit people wanted.0 -
Yes, I think that the leadership are out on a limb with both of these policies. It's the drip drip effect. They are putting out too many unpopular policies and haven't got any kind of gold in there for anyone. I said it before when they revealed these policies, I don't know who Theresa May is trying to appeal and what strategy she is attempting to undertake other than being "not Corbyn" for people who don't like Corbyn.SeanT said:
You thought I'd lost my mind when I "over-reacted" to Dementia Tax Winter Fuel Fuck Up. You accused me of hysterical bedwetting, when I said this could be potentially disastrous; you pooh-poohed and chortled, and said it will barely shift the polls.Jason said:
I think you've lost your mind, man.SeanT said:
Yes, it is the case. Because, Soft Brexit.Jason said:
Surely your home is with the Lib Dems then, if you want single market membership and freedom of movement?SeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goesNorm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
I rest my case.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.
But you'd really vote for Corbyn if you had another chance? You'd put a two trillion pounds economy in the hands of Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, and Diane Abbott? If this is the case, then maybe the Tories really are in trouble.
Theresa is heading for Crash Brexit. Which will do more damage than even John McDonnell. Corbyn will very likely take us into EFTA, and stay in the Single Market. The Lib Dems haven't got a hope of winning, so Liberal Brexiteers have no choice but to go Corbyn, if it really matters. TMay's horrible manifesto is basically Ed Miliband's, so why should I worry about a leftwing government? We're getting one anyway.
Labour should come out and make all this very clear. They could win this.
To me this campaign feels like Brexit, Trump, Indyref all over again. Two out of three times the outlandish result happened.
Well, who was right, and who was wrong?
I was right. You were wrong. I am of course a bipolar twit and prone to massive mood swings, but sometimes my moodswings mirror a greater shift out there.0 -
CUCKOOHYUFD said:
There is a small swing to the Tories outside London and a big swing in Scotland, there is a 0.5% swing to Labour in London though which distorts the English figures a bitjustin124 said:Looking at the Yougov tables the Tory lead is shown as 10% in England– effectively unchanged from 2015 and would imply no swing at all there.
0 -
The majority of which you paid for in taxes not being social caremalcolmg said:
Bollox , it si not a subsidy if you have paid through teh nose for more than 40 years.HYUFD said:
Every government and political party tries to gloss up what it does but whether it was called 'the Community Charge' or the 'Poll Tax' it was by definition a tax levied on every resident to pay for local services they may not use, irrespective of whether it was popular or not. The fact that if you have £100k+ of assets you have to pay for your own social care is by definition not a tax as the government is not taking anything from you to pay for others, just stopping a subsidy that would otherwise have paid for your care and that is true whether the new social care policy is popular or notsurbiton said:
Why did the Conservative Party insist on calling it the Community Charge then ?HYUFD said:
That was a poll tax as it was levied per head on individuals to pay for local servicessurbiton said:
Was it a Community charge or was it a POLL TAX ?HYUFD said:
A tax is taking from your income to pay others, losing a lot of state subsidy to pay your own care (beyond support for those with assets under £100k) is not a tax whether voters like it or notbigjohnowls said:Andrew Neil on Tories' social care plan: "A stealth inheritance tax of 100% on everything above £100,000."
PB Tories shouting at TV "Its not a Tax"
Viewers cant hear
A 100% Stealth tax is theft in my view0 -
So far she has taken them nowhere, mere speculation based on some polls. Wishful thinking by frothing idiots on here. So far she has not won a single vote.HYUFD said:
May has also taken the Tories to 44% and 46% of voteshare precisely because of those UKIP anti immigration voters returning to the blue fold, the idea that you could pursue Brexit without hardish Brexit in the first place was never on the cards, we will be out of the single market until Labour eventually get back in, the Tories are not going to lose all their new voters. If Corbyn got in now we would be leaving the EU but with higher income tax, higher corporation tax, more spending and nationalisations left, right and centre and increased immigration, so we would be Venezuala with more multiculturalism, the precise opposite of what most Leavers whether soft or hard Brexiteers wanted, having been a reluctant Remainer it would be funny but a disaster for the UKSeanT said:
Here's a thing. And I am entirely serious.Jason said:
It goes back to the waverer in the poll booth, though. The doubter. The realist. The indiviudal who on the surface likes muchNorm said:The Corbyn/IRA stuff should be played but not overplayed. My son who's 27 doesn't remember the troubles and sees the Irish as modern day allies. The issue does have limited traction among under 35's I'd suggest. On the other hand it does fit into the narrative that Corbyn is an anti -British surrender monkey and would prefer to cancel Trident and be more than happy to hand over the Falklands to the Argies and Gibraltar to the Spanish.
I rest my case.
CHANGE OF MIND KLAXON
I sent my postal vote yesterday. I voted Tory, even though Starmer will win easily here.
But this morning I thought: if I had that vote again, today, I might go Labour (for the first time in my life). Why? Even though I detest many of Corbyn's policies, and think they will be economically damaging?
Because I also detest many of TMay's proposals, and I think they will be economically damaging.
But the big difference between them is that Corbyn will almost certainly deliver Soft Brexit. We will stay in the Single Market, and it will be something off-the-shelf like EFTA. This is what I, and probably the majority of the country, would like. By contrast TMay will deliver the Hardest Brexit, and she's kept that absurd, pernicious tens of thousands of net migrants pledge, which she almost certainly can't deliver, and which, if she did deliver, would destroy our university sector.
That's how bad the Tory manifesto was: I despise Corbyn, but right now I am a Don't Know (if you discount the fact I've already voted). Well done Nick Timothy.0 -
If any of these families were abusing powers of attorney they could be prosecuted for theft. Plenty have been.Sandpit said:
That's absolutely horrible. Stories like that make me wonder about how modern society has become both so materialistic and so willing to look to the state to solve problems, that people can just steal from and then abandon their own parents.YBarddCwsc said:
The Council already look at this kind of activity, and if they conclude (I don't know how exactly) that you sold the house to avoid care home fees, then you get billed.not_on_fire said:
So if I take a 100% equity loan on my £500k house, hand it all to the kids and then spend 20 years in care, how do the council get their money back?rottenborough said:
I presume this is already happening as local councils can put a 'charge' on a property for repaying social care bills.not_on_fire said:Surely the elephant in the room re: social care is how these homes are going to be valued? Who will be doing the valuation, is there an appeal process, etc etc? What about the effects of sudden house price increases/decreases?
And the valuation itself will be a big piece of work - revaluaing homes for Council Tax purposes in England was moved into the "too hard" column by Osborne.
Certainly, Equity withdrawal is taking place for other reasons too - funding holiday of lifetime, gift for the kids to get first mortgage etc.
I saw many sad thing when my mother was dying of Parkinson's.
But the saddest of all were the people whose families had shafted them, and sold the house.
They had taken the money and left their mother or father defenceless and moneyless and alone, grappling with monstrosity of our social care system.
They were usually so sick they couldn’t understand what had happened to them, where they were, where their children were or why they had no money any more.
Something that hasn't been mentioned is the lack of choice of care homes if you have to rely on local authority funding. You may not be able to get your parent into a home within easy travelling distance. This is particularly a problem if parents live within a different council area from their children. But if an inheritance is all that matters I suppose this consideration would not apply.
0 -
Labour - the party of the 1%
Fighting to keep heating allowance for millionaire pensioners and for millionaires offspring to inherit as much as possible without impediment from the state
Both of these policies are entirely sensible but, in an election which the media are desperate to be closer, anything taking something away from someone is going to be reported with outrage, what is appalling is the opposition's readiness to ditch any principles ever held to ride the waves of an unpopular manifesto commitment.
But this is as bad as it gets for the tories, when voting people will remember it's all about brexit and that Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott are truly dreadful human beings0 -
The_Apocalypse said:
Are you okay?SeanT said:I never thought I would sincerely type the words "I might vote Labour this time", especially when Labour has its most leftwing leader in many decades. But I typed them, and I meant them.
How many more are thinking like me, as the postal votes go out? What if this trend continues, and people realise 1. Corbyn could win, and 2. He would deliver Soft Brexit/Single Market?
My mum's thinking of voting Labour, after watching McDonnell and Green today on Andrew Marr.
You mean the one where McDonnell actually said they wouldn't be borrowing, just issuing gilts?0 -
Ruth conceding she can't win on her own !
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/davidson-calls-for-holyrood-alliance-of-unionist-parties-dqf9xjgpj0 -
How did I know you were going to say Paxman? Someone who is most famous for ripping apart Tories like Michael Howard and hasn't worked at the BBC for years now.surbiton said:
He is a Tory. As was Jeremy Paxman.Philip_Thompson said:
Andrew Neil is tough on everyone equally so no wonder lefties in comparison to the rest of the BBC think he is a Tory.surbiton said:
The BBC are shit scared. Always begging to have their charter renewed. Anyway, their news and current affairs are full of Tories.Yorkcity said:
Yes very true the local Itv news gives him fair coverage when he has visited Yorkshire and shows the crowds.Less do the BBC who always seems to find Labour voters who are negative.rural_voter said:
'The Labour party is a moral crusade or it is nothing'. Superb but from Harold Wilson about 50 years ago.Yorkcity said:
Yes he is good on the stump .He had a good reception when he came to York and spoke in the main square.It reminded me of Neil Kinnock speech in 1983 .I warn you not to grow old.Might be the same result seats wise but they both know how to move people.NickPalmer said:To get a taste of why Corbyn is a good stump campigner, see the 2-minute video on
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/21/general-election-2017-tory-wobble-over-social-care-live-updates?page=with:block-592152fce4b0a9ae59335bff#liveblog-navigation
of his speech to a huge crowd at Tranmere's ground. I don't think any Labour sympathiser, even ultra-sceptics, can fail to be a bit moved.
If the media latch onto a positive soundbite, it may get people taking and change votes. I think 'dementia tax' is OK but it's also a bit negative and depresses people, like the Remain campaign did.
I also think he has a more dynamic speaking style at rallies than EdM. By itself, that may be ineffective unless it's widely reported.
Start with a letter A: Andrew Neil.
Try going through the rest of the alphabet. Blank for B to M, N for Neil, Andrew, blank for O to Z.
Yeah the BBC is so Tory isn't it ...0 -
Comparing like with like - YouGov for Sunday Times, this weekend's versus the last:
Headline VI
Last Sunday: Con 49, Lab 31
This Sunday: Con 44, Lab 35
Con lead over Lab in headline VI, by age group
Last Sunday:
18-24 -20
25-49 -3
50-64 +29
65+ +52
This Sunday:
18-24 -33
25-49 -16
50-64 +21
65+ +50
Leader ratings:
The Sunday Times series asks people to decide whether the leaders are doing well or badly. A negative score indicates that more respondents say they are doing badly than well.
Last Sunday: May +18, Corbyn -42 (net difference: 60)
This Sunday: May +15, Corbyn -35 (net difference: 50)
May's lead over Corbyn, broken down by age group:
Last Sunday:
18-24 -5
25-49 +32
50-64 +84
65+ +132
This Sunday:
18-24 -27
25-49 +26
50-64 +67
65+ +113
Conclusions:
1. If YouGov are to be believed, both Labour and Corbyn have made progress this week.
2. According to these particular data sets, Labour's progress has been swiftest amongst the youngest. It slows as you move up the age profile of the electorate. The Tory lead amongst pensioners has barely changed at all.
3. Corbyn appears to have closed the gap with May a little, but he's still ahead only with the youngest voters. May is comfortably ahead with the 25-49 group, miles ahead with the 50-64's, and light years ahead with pensioners.0 -
An excellent debate between Livni and Erekat on the World economic forum. Two very impressive politicians. Those tedious people who keep shouting ant Semite at Corbyn should stop reading silly articles by those with an axe to grind and watch the issues discussed intelligently.
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