politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly this election becomes a lot more difficult to call
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First, like Theresa May's Conservatives.0
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Second, like Corbo!0
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Spreadex mid-point this morning is 388 seats for the Tories, that's a majority over 120.
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What were the spreads on May 8th 2015? Can anyone remember?0
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Polls and door-knocking results are out of sync.....
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They started off at 375, went quickly up to about 398 where they stayed within a couple of points for a while, and now back down to 388 over the past three days.Mortimer said:What were the spreads on May 8th 2015? Can anyone remember?
Just after the local elections they would have been at the peak, around 397-398.0 -
FPT:
YouGov - regional swings
Con lead (diff 18/19 vs 16/17 May)
Lon: -10 (-13)
Sou: +22 (+1)
Mid: +11 (+1)
Nth: -14 (-11)
Sc: +6 (-)
Colour me sceptical - but there are some huge internal swings, while other regions haven't budged.....0 -
SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/8659235608078131200 -
Why, when this one is clearly working?calum said:SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/8659235608078131200 -
YouGov:
Preventing a referendum on Scottish independence until after the Brexit process has been completed England (Scotland)
Good idea : 55 (47)
Wrong priority : 23 (37)0 -
Excellent. London going Labour as I suspected.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
YouGov - regional swings
Con lead (diff 18/19 vs 16/17 May)
Lon: -10 (-13)
Sou: +22 (+1)
Mid: +11 (+1)
Nth: -14 (-11)
Sc: +6 (-)
Colour me sceptical - but there are some huge internal swings, while other regions haven't budged.....0 -
As Cameron might have said: Calm down, dear.
FPT:
There is a significant UKIP to Con swing in Labour-held constituencies in England and Wales north of the Wash-Severn line. This is likely to lead to massive Labour seat losses without necessarily any loss in GB % vote share, or even a net gain in Labour vote share if there is a swing to Labour in safe Labour seats in cosmopolitan metropolitan areas or safe Tory seats.
There will still be a significant Tory majority. Don't forget 10-15 potential Tory gains from LD and SNP as well.
Unless the Tory lead over Labour drops below 6% (that achieved in 2015), a Tory victory is nailed on.
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Just like in 2015....MarqueeMark said:Polls and door-knocking results are out of sync.....
Can't wait for that exit poll on the bong of 10pm!0 -
That just shows how statistically worthless these relatively small sub-samples are.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
YouGov - regional swings
Con lead (diff 18/19 vs 16/17 May)
Lon: -10 (-13)
Sou: +22 (+1)
Mid: +11 (+1)
Nth: -14 (-11)
Sc: +6 (-)
Colour me sceptical - but there are some huge internal swings, while other regions haven't budged.....0 -
Conservative Landslide Klaxon :
10 reasons :
1. National Polls - Two party system returns. Look at the gap not the headline numbers.
2. Regional polling awful in Labour marginals in the midlands and north.
3. Differential turnout
4. Leadership ratings.
5. Jezza
6. Jezza
7. Jezza
8. Jezza
9. Jezza
10 Jezza
Rinse And Repeat0 -
Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.0
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Because Calum and others don't like it when their Indy hobby horse doesn't have a hope?RobD said:
Why, when this one is clearly working?calum said:SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/8659235608078131200 -
Wait for a few more polls and then probably cash out some time next week the sell positions taken out at peak Tory?Sandpit said:
They started off at 375, went quickly up to about 398 where they stayed within a couple of points for a while, and now back down to 388 over the past three days.Mortimer said:What were the spreads on May 8th 2015? Can anyone remember?
Just after the local elections they would have been at the peak, around 397-398.0 -
Must say, you and your ARSE are a great comfort....JackW said:Conservative Landslide Klaxon :
10 reasons :
1. National Polls - Two party system returns. Look at the gap not the headline numbers.
2. Regional polling awful in Labour marginals in the midlands and north.
3. Differential turnout
4. Leadership ratings.
5. Jezza
6. Jezza
7. Jezza
8. Jezza
9. Jezza
10 Jezza
Rinse And Repeat
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Which will help keep Corbyn in place......tlg86 said:
Excellent. London going Labour as I suspected.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
YouGov - regional swings
Con lead (diff 18/19 vs 16/17 May)
Lon: -10 (-13)
Sou: +22 (+1)
Mid: +11 (+1)
Nth: -14 (-11)
Sc: +6 (-)
Colour me sceptical - but there are some huge internal swings, while other regions haven't budged.....0 -
Damien Green Having A Mare On Marr.0
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Exactly. And 9 points well distributed could still be enough for a hefty win.The_Apocalypse said:Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.
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I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.The_Apocalypse said:Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.
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Andrew Marr doing well against Damian Green.0
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I think we should be very careful in assuming the winter fuel and social care proposals were signed off by Lynton Crosby. There is a lot of chatter around that this was Nick Timothys idea and fiercely resisted with Mrs May overriding the deep concerns there were about it.0
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10 point lead in Scotland for 'no referendum until Brexit completed......'RobD said:
Why, when this one is clearly working?calum said:SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/8659235608078131200 -
Jack's ARSE has been a great comfort to a great many.....RobD said:
Must say, you and your ARSE are a great comfort....JackW said:Conservative Landslide Klaxon :
10 reasons :
1. National Polls - Two party system returns. Look at the gap not the headline numbers.
2. Regional polling awful in Labour marginals in the midlands and north.
3. Differential turnout
4. Leadership ratings.
5. Jezza
6. Jezza
7. Jezza
8. Jezza
9. Jezza
10 Jezza
Rinse And Repeat0 -
Ian, that is another good point that has not been discussed.IanB2 said:
There is also the question of how providing the care is best organised and managed. Whatever your view of local authorities, there is no doubt that carrying the burden of spiralling care costs whilst their funding is being cut has had a very serious impact on local councils, which has knocked on to cuts in many other completely unrelated service areas. Local authorities don't have any meaningful way of raising money to meet these rising costs and, without significant change to local government funding arrangements, there are arguments for at least exploring alternative structures.YBarddCwsc said:
I quoted some rough figures to show the cost of what you suggested (National Care Service).The_Apocalypse said:@YBarddCwsc Yes, last night a lot of those themes were discussed re the unpopularity of any social care policy. I think the trouble is, as noted by another PBer that the solution May had chosen isn't great - I've already said what I think would be a better path to go down so I won't go into that again. I also think that it's not just that she's tackling social care now, but all the other things she's pursuing related to the Baby Boomers. On top of that, as a young person I don't see what she is doing to help my generation/the working population, which is apparently what the shift away from the baby boomers in terms of state benefits is supposed to be about.
The money required is daunting.
I like the idea of a National Care Service, but it is clear that it will require something like a minimum of 3p on income tax.
I am not a tribal voter, I am interested in policy that is properly costed. I think it is up to May’s critics to provide a better & costed policy.
Changes have to come to social care funding, as it is consuming ever greater fractions of local authority budgets.
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Keep an eye on the tables, Mike. Tories still as far ahead as ever with older voters. What you've witnessed is a 5% boost for Labour among youngers off back of Labour manifesto. Not enough to win it for Labour, but that's what's closed the gap. Presumably Tories still have option of selling their social care policy as not dumping on youngers or people in north whose house equity is much lower (ie can keep last £100K instead £23K).
Then again, Tories may be best off just changing the subject on to something else!0 -
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In what way?MarqueeMark said:Polls and door-knocking results are out of sync.....
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On PB there's this false narrative that if Labour does really badly, Corbyn will go easily. The reality is, is no matter what it'll be hard to shift Corbyn. Labour needs to produce a coherent alternative to Corbynism, ideologically to the membership in order to replace him. One of the biggest issues with Cooper, Burnham, etc is that no or knew what they stood for.
Then as Southam has stated, there's the unions.
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How many people with Alzheimer's are being cared for by the state in their own home?0
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@TSE bought at 378 and just cashed out at 393 - at £40 a seatIanB2 said:
Wait for a few more polls and then probably cash out some time next week the sell positions taken out at peak Tory?Sandpit said:
They started off at 375, went quickly up to about 398 where they stayed within a couple of points for a while, and now back down to 388 over the past three days.Mortimer said:What were the spreads on May 8th 2015? Can anyone remember?
Just after the local elections they would have been at the peak, around 397-398.
I didn't get on at the start, am waiting for the price to drop a little more before buying - for somewhat more modest stakes!
@TSE did mention one more possible black swan which is a charge in the Thanet expenses case next week - I'm not convinced it will be too much of a story but it's another possibility for a spike down in the spread.0 -
Should they make it as broad as this??calum said:SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=51788274590010 -
The people who should be most worried about where this election is going are the moderates in the Labour Party.The_Apocalypse said:On PB there's this false narrative that if Labour does really badly, Corbyn will go easily. The reality is, is no matter what it'll be hard to shift Corbyn. Labour needs to produce a coherent alternative to Corbynism, ideologically to the membership in order to replace him. One of the biggest issues with Cooper, Burnham, etc is that no or knew what they stood for.
Then as Southam has stated, there's the unions.0 -
I've have taken the view that a dementia tax should be immediately applied to PB Tory bedwetters as they clearly qualify ....0
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Marr: vast secret inheritance tax.0
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Does mocking up headlines in Word count as fake news?calum said:SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/8659235608078131200 -
foxinsoxuk said:
» show previous quotes
The reason for c) is that people have the expectation that the NHS should cover mental health issues like dementia and that they have already been paying for it all their lives.
For chronic illnesses of frailty (whether mental or physical) there has been a shift to care outside the hospital, but no recognition that this really means paying for it yourself.
That's right.
If we accept the principle of the NHS that the cost of ill health (which is mainly a lottery) is shared (with the option going private for higher quality), then we should also accept the principle that that the cost of frailty including dementia should be shared in the same way.
It is a form of insurance. The most effective insurer is the government (the US system is twice as expensive) with the premiums paid out of general taxation.
Since 1979, there has been a race to the bottom in rates of personal taxation. First it was funded out of North Sea oil, then privatisations. These were oneoffs - the family silver. We are rapidly running out of family silver.
The options are (a) an increase in personal taxation (b) an influx of hundreds of thousands of well educated young healthy immigrants who pay tax and consume less services, or (c) a growing number of very unhappy pensioners and their families.
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Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.0
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I see that Damian Green's Marr interview is proceeding in a manner not entirely to his advantage0
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SNP support firming up at c.45% - amazingly SLAB showing resilience - SCON could still come 3rd in vote % !RobD said:
Why, when this one is clearly working?calum said:SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/8659235608078131200 -
Well, they repeat one of them 3 times and another one at least twice.Theuniondivvie said:
Does mocking up headlines in Word count as fake news?calum said:SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/865923560807813120
Maybe Sturgeon hasn't been talking about independence enough?0 -
Wouldn't bet on it re what you've said on Labour, for reasons alluded to in my previous post. The McDonell amendment is unlikely to get passed during conference for a start.tlg86 said:
I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.The_Apocalypse said:Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.
While you may not mind May sacrificing a chunk of her majority, the reason this election was called was to get a massive Conservative majority.0 -
Firming up based on what?calum said:0 -
The discrepancy between two bookies' Over/Under Labour Total Seats currently provides an attractive betting opportunity:
Stake 6 units with Hills on Labour winning > 162.5 seats
Stake 6 units with Betfair Sportsbook on Labour winning < 176.5 seats
Maximum loss is therefore 1 unit (i.e 6 units lost - 5 units won). BUT should Labour win between 163 seats and 176 seats, a highly promising prospect covering a range of 13 seats, then both bets pay out, providing a combined profit of 10 units against a maximum combined loss, as above, of 1 unit i.e. effective odds therefore of 10/1 ..... hurry though this can't last!
DYOR.0 -
Green promising a green paper on health and social care in the summer.
McIRA up next.0 -
The Labour 2015 retention numbers continue to firm up while the Tories' one is down thanks to Tory pensioners saying "undecided".
It's like a mini-version of the 2012 budget where the pensioners' tax allowance was withdrawn. They drifted away but came back for the 2015 vote. Three years condensed into three weeks with these policies, the reaction and the imminent vote.
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Morning all
GE2017 has certainly become a little less dull, but the basics are little changed, the Tories are on course to increase their majority and Labour look set to save a few more of their MPs.
Betting on constituency outcomes just got very complicated, I think I'll stick to lost deposits.
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Marr: you gonna rethink?
Green: nope.0 -
Again, as I literally said in the post the idea it will be easy to shift Corbyn in the event of a massive loss in regard to vote share is a fallacy argument.tlg86 said:
The people who should be most worried about where this election is going are the moderates in the Labour Party.The_Apocalypse said:On PB there's this false narrative that if Labour does really badly, Corbyn will go easily. The reality is, is no matter what it'll be hard to shift Corbyn. Labour needs to produce a coherent alternative to Corbynism, ideologically to the membership in order to replace him. One of the biggest issues with Cooper, Burnham, etc is that no or knew what they stood for.
Then as Southam has stated, there's the unions.
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Mr. Sandpit, indeed, damned foolish to throw in an unexamined policy in a highly emotive area just a few weeks before polling day.0
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He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.JackW said:
I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.Sandpit said:Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.
McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.0 -
I don't know about the workings of the Labour Party, but I wouldn't underestimate Corbyn and his mob's ability to hang on.The_Apocalypse said:
Wouldn't bet on it re what you've said on Labour, for reasons alluded to in my previous post. The McDonell amendment is unlikely to get passed during conference for a start.tlg86 said:
I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.The_Apocalypse said:Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.
While you may not mind May sacrificing a chunk of her majority, the reason this election was called was to get a massive Conservative majority.
As for why the election was called, actually I think one of the bigger reasons was so that we now don't have to have an election for five more years which will help with Brexit. Furthermore, if things go well in Scotland, it will put the SNP back in their box.0 -
Door some door knocking of your own and you'll find out!timmo said:
In what way?MarqueeMark said:Polls and door-knocking results are out of sync.....
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And to buy two extra years for the economy and/or Brexit to go bad.The_Apocalypse said:
Wouldn't bet on it re what you've said on Labour, for reasons alluded to in my previous post. The McDonell amendment is unlikely to get passed during conference for a start.tlg86 said:
I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.The_Apocalypse said:Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.
While you may not mind May sacrificing a chunk of her majority, the reason this election was called was to get a massive Conservative majority.0 -
One useless MP and a handful of list place MSP's losers slots. You have high standards Rob.RobD said:
Why, when this one is clearly working?calum said:SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/8659235608078131200 -
Yougov's internal numbers are still very strong for the Conservatives, and consistent with a big lead on the day.0
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If the polls get tighter expect all out war on Corbyn in the way Miliband was targeted. Nothing at all for May to worry about, her attack dogs will see to that.0
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They are faker than 3 bob bitsTheuniondivvie said:
Does mocking up headlines in Word count as fake news?calum said:SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/8659235608078131200 -
They can now ignore the House of Pensioners and push it through.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, indeed, damned foolish to throw in an unexamined policy in a highly emotive area just a few weeks before polling day.
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That under 176.5 looks nice doesn't it?peter_from_putney said:The discrepancy between two bookies' Over/Under Labour Total Seats currently provides an attractive betting opportunity:
Stake 6 units with Hills on Labour winning > 162.5 seats
Stake 6 units with Betfair Sportsbook on Labour winning < 176.5 seats
Maximum loss is therefore 1 unit (i.e 6 units lost - 5 units won). BUT should Labour win between 163 seats and 176 seats, a highly promising prospect covering a range of 13 seats, then both bets pay out, providing a combined profit of 10 units against a maximum combined loss, as above, of 1 unit i.e. effective odds therefore of 10/1 ..... hurry though this can't last!
DYOR.
Could be worth looking on oddschecker where the Tories have been pushed out and backing them
The exchange has EVS under 177.50 -
Well quite:
Some Labour activists are concerned that the suspensions in Aberdeen will have repercussions in next month’s general election. Labour’s last surviving Scottish MP in the 2015 SNP landslide was the member for Edinburgh South, Ian Murray. Even he would concede that among those who returned him to Westminster two years ago were a number of those who might traditionally have voted Tory. Will those same voters feel so happy supporting a Labour candidate now they know that party views them with such contempt?
http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-dugdale-blunders-with-suspension-of-disbelief-1-44521230 -
I doubt Crosby's plan was to go to "landslide" via "twitchy underwear" any more than Dunkirk was part of the plan for Normandy.
Curbing pensioner benefits after all the shelter they've had is morally right "all in it together" etc. The long term care situation also needs looking at for all our sakes so we will benefit from it being now firmly on the agenda. The essentials of the route they have chosen is that hateful word "progressive" in that rich southerners are going to be the supply of money for poor northerners at its most blunt. Ok they have chosen to individualise the risk which is a further choice but someone in a two up two down in Salford benefits over a £5m pad owner in Chelsea.
But thrice but, as an act of salesmanship, it's dire. These are a "masterclass" in creating doubt and fear. Marr is roasting Damian Green right now as to what level the WFA cuts will kick in. Nail on head - is it pensioners on 30k, 20k, 10k? So McDonnell can't miss can he as 12m are now in doubt and he can say he's protecting poor old ladies on 6k from freezing to death rather than having to defend (say) handing out cash to folk on 30k who spend it on a winter break in Marbella.
Ditto long term care. As I said at it's heart "progressive" (though risk is not pooled which is v odd) but it's way way too complex to explain on the doorstep two and a half weeks before an election. All folk hear is "they're taking my house if I'm ill, sort of, aren't they?". People are very very very emotive about their homes. You can use all the logic you like they won't listen, they'll just go into defence mode.
Facts are largely irrelevant "it's perception stupid ". If you are explaining you're losing. The Tories are explaining a lot on this, even as Labour's own policies are collectively "moon on a stick".0 -
Labour is sensibly trying to send either McDonnell or Gardiner to every interview.0
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They are as fake as that video for sure.Scott_P said:
Should they make it as broad as this??calum said:SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=51788274590010 -
We're counting on it.....tlg86 said:
I wouldn't underestimate Corbyn and his mob's ability to hang on.The_Apocalypse said:
Wouldn't bet on it re what you've said on Labour, for reasons alluded to in my previous post. The McDonell amendment is unlikely to get passed during conference for a start.tlg86 said:
I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.The_Apocalypse said:Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.
While you may not mind May sacrificing a chunk of her majority, the reason this election was called was to get a massive Conservative majority.0 -
Has Green answered one of the fundamental questions on this piece of manifesto madness: that is, will the private, City-based insurance industry be running State-enforced Equitable Release schemes on people's homes to pay care costs?Sandpit said:
He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.JackW said:
I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.Sandpit said:Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.
McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.
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He is not likeable is he?Sandpit said:Green promising a green paper on health and social care in the summer.
McIRA up next.0 -
McDonnell reckons his £25bn extra borrowing - for current spending - with be 'cost neutral' due to extra growth. This before he gets on to his 'investment' in nationalised industries.0
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I'm sure PBers have intuitively stocked up their pantries with popcorn and indeed will have been racing in that direction during the Marr/Green debacle.
And oh what fun Andrew Neil will have in the leaders interviews.
First up the PM. Tomorrow BBC1 7-7:30pm .... titter ....
POPCORN SHARES .... BUY BUY BUY0 -
Village idiot out to playMortimer said:
Because Calum and others don't like it when their Indy hobby horse doesn't have a hope?RobD said:
Why, when this one is clearly working?calum said:SCON might want to broaden their campaign message !!
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/8659235608078131200 -
I thought the whole point was that there wasn't need for such schemes, and the cost would only be recouped from the estate?rottenborough said:
Has Green answered one of the fundamental questions on this piece of manifesto madness: that is, will the private, City-based insurance industry be running State-enforced Equitable Release schemes on people's homes to pay care costs?Sandpit said:
He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.JackW said:
I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.Sandpit said:Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.
McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.0 -
It amazes me that any sort of Labour-Tory or Tory-Labour tactical voting in the middle of a hard fought GE is particularly likely in the first place. But I am not Scottish so what do I know?CarlottaVance said:Well quite:
Some Labour activists are concerned that the suspensions in Aberdeen will have repercussions in next month’s general election. Labour’s last surviving Scottish MP in the 2015 SNP landslide was the member for Edinburgh South, Ian Murray. Even he would concede that among those who returned him to Westminster two years ago were a number of those who might traditionally have voted Tory. Will those same voters feel so happy supporting a Labour candidate now they know that party views them with such contempt?
http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-dugdale-blunders-with-suspension-of-disbelief-1-44521230 -
And anyone else who'd like to see an even marginally effective opposition.tlg86 said:
The people who should be most worried about where this election is going are the moderates in the Labour Party.The_Apocalypse said:On PB there's this false narrative that if Labour does really badly, Corbyn will go easily. The reality is, is no matter what it'll be hard to shift Corbyn. Labour needs to produce a coherent alternative to Corbynism, ideologically to the membership in order to replace him. One of the biggest issues with Cooper, Burnham, etc is that no or knew what they stood for.
Then as Southam has stated, there's the unions.
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As local authorities do for residential care now.RobD said:
I thought the whole point was that there wasn't need for such schemes, and the cost would only be recouped from the estate?rottenborough said:
Has Green answered one of the fundamental questions on this piece of manifesto madness: that is, will the private, City-based insurance industry be running State-enforced Equitable Release schemes on people's homes to pay care costs?Sandpit said:
He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.JackW said:
I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.Sandpit said:Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.
McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.0 -
John McDonnell back on this morning reminding me why i could never vote labour with him and corbyn in charge0
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I'm not underestimating it - I've said they'll be difficult to shift. But it's unclear as to what will happen post election, we will have to wait and see. YG has produced polling showing that in the case of defeat, the membership does believe Corbyn should resign, but his keyboard warriors want Labour to be a protest group forever. We all see which tendency Labour leans towards after the election.tlg86 said:
I don't know about the workings of the Labour Party, but I wouldn't underestimate Corbyn and his mob's ability to hang on.The_Apocalypse said:
Wouldn't bet on it re what you've said on Labour, for reasons alluded to in my previous post. The McDonell amendment is unlikely to get passed during conference for a start.tlg86 said:
I'd far rather Theresa May was prepared to sacrifice a chunk of her majority to do what she thinks needs to be done. I doubt this is in their calculations but if she wins a 70 seat majority, but Labour's share of the vote goes up, she'll be facing Jezza or his chosen successor for the next five years.The_Apocalypse said:Is anyone really doubting that the Conservatives will win? It's more about the size of the majority, than anything else, that's being debated.
While you may not mind May sacrificing a chunk of her majority, the reason this election was called was to get a massive Conservative majority.
As for why the election was called, actually I think one of the bigger reasons was so that we now don't have to have an election for five more years which will help with Brexit. Furthermore, if things go well in Scotland, it will put the SNP back in their box.
The Brexit factor may have been part of it, but that factor was there even when May was telling us she wasn't going to call an early election. I don't think May cares about the SNP, it fairly obvious as per the polling that Scottish independence is not popular right now. The SNP isn't likely to be put in their box for as long as they are Scotland's biggest party which they will be after this GE.
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In what fucked up world would you borrow a quarter of a trillion pounds to buy back privatised industries - rather than spend it on health, education, housing.....0
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"certainly more than 100"
I was happy if there was a 50 majority when this was announced0 -
Hee Haw Hee HawRobD said:
I thought the whole point was that there wasn't need for such schemes, and the cost would only be recouped from the estate?rottenborough said:
Has Green answered one of the fundamental questions on this piece of manifesto madness: that is, will the private, City-based insurance industry be running State-enforced Equitable Release schemes on people's homes to pay care costs?Sandpit said:
He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.JackW said:
I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.Sandpit said:Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.
McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.0 -
McDonnell: "you borrow the money...."
Green: "exactly!"0 -
No but there was talk of "consultation and Green Paper". If they still get in the turkey will be taken out and shot and will emerge as a fowl of a different feather.rottenborough said:
Has Green answered one of the fundamental questions on this piece of manifesto madness: that is, will the private, City-based insurance industry be running State-enforced Equitable Release schemes on people's homes to pay care costs?Sandpit said:
He was drowning at the start on the figures in the manifesto, but I thought he recovered somewhat near the end and gave a good account of himself on the social care issue.JackW said:
I must have missed the nano second when that occurred.Sandpit said:Damian Green doing a reasonable job of defending the social care policy now.
McDonnell now arguing that rich pensioners should pay less for social care, but still won't say where the money comes from.0 -
Extra popcorn needed for these two arguing with each other! (Green and McDonnell).0
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Labour desperate to be seen as red Tories, you could not make it up.Scott_P said:0 -
Well yes. The people who have spent time calling anyone who questions them on Brexit a quisling and a traitor want Britain to be one Party state forever.....Nigelb said:
And anyone else who'd like to see an even marginally effective opposition.tlg86 said:
The people who should be most worried about where this election is going are the moderates in the Labour Party.The_Apocalypse said:On PB there's this false narrative that if Labour does really badly, Corbyn will go easily. The reality is, is no matter what it'll be hard to shift Corbyn. Labour needs to produce a coherent alternative to Corbynism, ideologically to the membership in order to replace him. One of the biggest issues with Cooper, Burnham, etc is that no or knew what they stood for.
Then as Southam has stated, there's the unions.
A bad opposition leads to bad government, as is being proved now and in the past0 -
welshowl said:
I doubt Crosby's plan was to go to "landslide" via "twitchy underwear" any more than Dunkirk was part of the plan for Normandy.
Curbing pensioner benefits after all the shelter they've had is morally right "all in it together" etc. The long term care situation also needs looking at for all our sakes so we will benefit from it being now firmly on the agenda. The essentials of the route they have chosen is that hateful word "progressive" in that rich southerners are going to be the supply of money for poor northerners at its most blunt. Ok they have chosen to individualise the risk which is a further choice but someone in a two up two down in Salford benefits over a £5m pad owner in Chelsea.
But thrice but, as an act of salesmanship, it's dire. These are a "masterclass" in creating doubt and fear. Marr is roasting Damian Green right now as to what level the WFA cuts will kick in. Nail on head - is it pensioners on 30k, 20k, 10k? So McDonnell can't miss can he as 12m are now in doubt and he can say he's protecting poor old ladies on 6k from freezing to death rather than having to defend (say) handing out cash to folk on 30k who spend it on a winter break in Marbella.
Ditto long term care. As I said at it's heart "progressive" (though risk is not pooled which is v odd) but it's way way too complex to explain on the doorstep two and a half weeks before an election. All folk hear is "they're taking my house if I'm ill, sort of, aren't they?". People are very very very emotive about their homes. You can use all the logic you like they won't listen, they'll just go into defence mode.
Facts are largely irrelevant "it's perception stupid ". If you are explaining you're losing. The Tories are explaining a lot on this, even as Labour's own policies are collectively "moon on a stick".
This policy stank of polling disaster from the moment Theresa May stood up to launch the manifesto.
The perception is generally awful by sounds of it. Although bit of a mixed response in my own family. Several terrified by the sound of it all - "losing control of our homes", one or two saying "let's wait for the detail".
I think the latter are being highly naive.
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It highlights the dearth of talent in Tories and Labour in Scotland, both so bereft they have to help each other manage their drubbings.IanB2 said:
It amazes me that any sort of Labour-Tory or Tory-Labour tactical voting in the middle of a hard fought GE is particularly likely in the first place. But I am not Scottish so what do I know?CarlottaVance said:Well quite:
Some Labour activists are concerned that the suspensions in Aberdeen will have repercussions in next month’s general election. Labour’s last surviving Scottish MP in the 2015 SNP landslide was the member for Edinburgh South, Ian Murray. Even he would concede that among those who returned him to Westminster two years ago were a number of those who might traditionally have voted Tory. Will those same voters feel so happy supporting a Labour candidate now they know that party views them with such contempt?
http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-dugdale-blunders-with-suspension-of-disbelief-1-44521230 -
Blimey they are really going at each other.0
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Hehe, I was being facetious. It's more of a massive gamble.MaxPB said:0
