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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve gone for 150+ lost LD deposits in this PaddyPower
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve gone for 150+ lost LD deposits in this PaddyPower betting market
Michael Thrasher of the Rallings/Thrasher duo has recently surveyed LD performances and he reported that the situation is dire. The headline “Lib Dems Need Resurrection Not Recovery” sums it up.
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"Because of our voting system, this Liberal Democrat decline is likely to assist both the Conservatives and Labour in terms of Commons' seats but the Conservatives stand to gain the most."
Not a view aired frequently.......
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/01/richard-littlejohn-wrong-about-jack-monroe-daily-mail
For all that, will it unwind all the way so that the Lib Dems will poll below 5% in vast numbers of seats? I'm highly sceptical. I'd rather bet on the 2/1 of 50 seats or fewer than the 7/2 of more than 150 seats.
But we can be a bit more scientific than that. Let's assume that the Lib Dems are competitive in 65 seats, averaging say 35% in those constituencies. If they are to poll, say, 15% nationally overall, they will need to tally an average of 12.8% in the other 585 seats. That represents a drop on their average in those 585 seats of roughly 40% (others can research the precise percentage drop, but that should be close enough and if anything on the high side). Assuming that our host is correct and that campaigning will be non-existent in all those seats, we should be seeing broadly equal drops in all of these seats. So the number of lost deposits would be roughly equal to the number of seats where the Lib Dems polled less than 8.33% at the last election.
Others can adjust these percentages to their personal taste, but it seems to me that the value is at the low end of this market, not the high end.
@MichaelLCrick
Just doorstepped Tory Chairman Grant Shapps about extraordinary letter I've received about his internet software business. More later ...
Pirelli threatened to not supply tires for next season unless they could test 2014 tires before the season starts, due to events at Silverstone among others.
They now have an agreement with all the F1 teams to run two sets of 2014 tires per driver at either FP1 or FP2 in Brazil.
It's yet to be sanctioned by the FIA.
- sorry Morris Dancer, I know in the UK tires has a Y in it, but my spell checker won't listen :-(
Maybe his surname gives a clue as to his irrational anger.
http://gawker.com/gay-couple-cant-find-any-homophobes-in-the-two-most-ho-1455395116
The point which I can only assume they're unbelievably badly trying to make is that not every person on welfare or low wages is going to take up her recipes but you'd rather her tell people to cook stuff cheap than a moralising millionaire like Jamie Oliver.
Littlejohn's piece reaches a nadir when he assumes poor people are incapable of doing anything other than opening a tin and that eating pesto is akin to eating caviar. Any fule know that if you're skint pesto shoved on plain pasta makes it just about bearable without a sauce.
The value bet is clearly below 50 .
The coming Ukranian Shale boom
http://oilprice.com/newsletters/free/opintel11113
And yes - in my view the 50-150 band is not value - 11.82% to 15.46% is a fairly tight range for 100 seats.
Len McCluskey was elected on the votes of less than 10% of his members. I imagine turnout was so poor because the alternative was SWP backed Jerry Hicks. What kind of a choice is that for any sane person? Does anyone know the selection procedure to get to the final two candidates?
And maybe helped other people in the process, by teaching them that you can cook reasonable-quality food cheaply.
There are lots of anti Tory and quite a few anti Labour voters out there. Come election time, notwithstanding many are totally pissed off , they will return. Some to Greens but a lot to LD.
Crick seems have lurched to the left since he joined C4 - perhaps that's why the Beeb doesn't think it is biased - all relative..
If Monroe the best they can do?
FPT
@Charles – cheers for your earlier reply wrt RBS – much appreciated.
I suspect he doesn't always believe in what he says and that he's probably more urbane in private. He's clearly someone who has a genius for picking a hot-potato subject and writing about it in an articulately condensed way which people can easily understand. And then get mega worked up about. There's no little skill in that. Perfect for the Daily Mail audience. He's like a less high-brow SeanT
Nick Robinson, in his Downing Street book, touches on Littlejohn's success and his brief time as a presenter of his own programme on Sky News. I always thought Littlejohn's programme was pulled because it wasn't popular, but apparently it was because Sky News is signed up to the broadcast news impartiality agreement and Littlejohn's stridency strayed beyond what is allowed.
I imagine lefties loved him when he was on prime-time telly!
Which is a little sad.
Telegraph bitten by their own Voodoo poll (is Gibraltar British or Spanish - answer 'Spanish') bite back and trace thousands of votes to Spain's Ministry of Defence:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/gibraltar/10420900/Spanish-ministry-of-defence-staff-vote-thousands-of-times-in-Telegraph-Gibraltar-poll.html
Finding money for food can be tough full stop on benefits.
But if you're lucky enough to have 20 or 30 quid spare at one time to do a relatively big shop, you can make it go a very long way. (as I'm sure most people on benefits are aware, when they've stopped throwing tins of spaghetti and white lightning at their plasma telly or whatever Littlejohn thinks goes on)
A whole chicken to chop up, load of veg, pasta, noodles, few tins of chopped toms and the like, do you for ages depending how many are eating, especially if you've got freezer room.
However a few months ago I received a ballot paper and election addresses for McCluskey vs Hicks which, IIRC, I threw in the bin, although tempted to vote for Hicks if only because he wasn't McCluskey, and this morning I had an email from the newly elected regional rep for the section of Unite to which I belonged when I worked.
Very odd.
http://www.condenaststore.com/-sp/Sure-we-need-affordable-housing-just-so-long-as-it-doesn-t-come-at-the-e-Prints_i8541416_.htm?AID=1247905545
In an article on JFK for the rest of us:
http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2013/11/04/131104crbo_books_gopnik?currentPage=all
I think 11/1 (PP) is still a good bet, but some weird principle is stopping me backing it, out of annoyance that I missed the far better price. Does that ever happen to anyone else, or just me?
I can't see Jowell. Perhaps because I can't stand her personally. Maybe a case of heart over head (or the opposite of "talking your book", whatever that is. Booking your talk? Betting your prejudices?)
Here's a good longform article summarising the weird world of internet marketing: http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/10/2984893/scamworld-get-rich-quick-schemes-mutate-into-an-online-monster
Like when you take a price on a horse then it drifts, your winnings feel somehow hollow.
This time there is so much more choice - Green, Respect, UKIP, Nationalists, TUSC etc.
At the same time the LDs have for the first time in a long while become part of the establishment.
It is a great irony that having been so keen to abolish FPTP, the LDs will likely be relying on it heavily to hang on to their seats. Under PR the LDs would likely get mullered (think of the FDP in Germany)
"It shows we are being treated as equal partners.
“The announcement that has been proposed is a substantial package. We are disappointed that air passenger duty for long-haul flights is not being devolved.”
... “These changes mean that, in the next few years, Wales will be in a position to tackle the improvements required for the M4, and to shape its own taxes, including the much needed reform of stamp duty land tax.
"A future Assembly will also be able to call a referendum on the devolution of rate-varying powers for income tax.”
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/carwyn-jones-referendum-announcement-an-6264110
I wonder which way that would go? Up, maybe, or perhaps up?
I'm still waiting for Miliband in his "cost of living" crisis to complain about the amount of money the government takes from people when buying their own home, at a time they can least afford it.
I maybe waiting some time.
When ey were a kid...
etc etc
;-)
On which note, I don't fancy any of these Lib Dem bets. Both Mike and Mark Senior (below) make good points. Suppose the 150+ looks best "value", but, nah.
(Of course the Lib Dem score in 2010 was slightly more than in 1987, and slightly less than 1983 both of which elections when they won seat numbers in the low 20s).
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/11/police-drop-investigation-into-grant-shapps-business/
http://cdn2.spectator.co.uk/wp-content/blogs.dir/11/files/2013/11/downloaded_file.pdf
Being a Cameron Tory, I expect you've got a "chest freezer" in the "summer house" that "The Help" "fetches" the "braces" of "pheasant" from whilst you discuss "the markets" so I wouldn't expect you to understand these things.
;-)
*You know the chap that reloads one gun while you're blasting away with the other. I saw it on Downton Abbey, but have no idea what they are actually called
Was more about a series of tweets he's been posting obsessed with class - e.g. "Villa should be renamed the toffees as Prince William and Cameron support them."
Normal people just don't think like that - only bitter class obsessed lefties - usually from up north.
His biggest hatred is not the Tories but the LDs.
CHEST FREEZER??????
Typical blooming PB Labour nonsense. Anyone with any class - any understanding of the world at all - would know that a fine fellow with Cameron's heritage would not deign to have something as common as a chest freezer.
Chest freezers are for would-be aristocrats like Miliband or Owen Jones. Pretenders to the throne.
No, people of Cameron's class make the servants to cut ice off the lake each winter, to put in the ice house along with all the game, meat and vegetables that were produced in the autumn. Then the servants are sent out to chip away at the produce when it is required.
An ice-house. No hovel's complete without one.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/john_berghout/7153990127/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24773025
They're right. They need more development data, for safety and to prevent what we saw this season happening. Safety meant changes had to be made, but those changes really played into Red Bull's hands and have made the latter half of the season a procession.
Early discussion of Abu Dhabi is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/abu-dhabi-early-discussion.html
I'll put the pre-qualifying piece up tomorrow.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/518947/20131101/london-fire-dagenham-scrap-metal-yard-chequers.htm
http://www.google.com/imgres?biw=1517&bih=997&tbm=isch&tbnid=2ljIMiLFcU9A4M:&imgrefurl=http://www.bridgemanartondemand.com/image/571995/francis-nicholson-interior-of-the-grotto-stourhead&docid=csE8ArxF1vMldM&imgurl=http://lowres-picturecabinet.com.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/173/main/16/571995.jpg&w=428&h=340&ei=wehzUpi9KYGshQfk_YHIDQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=858&vpy=291&dur=813&hovh=200&hovw=252&tx=160&ty=102&page=1&tbnh=145&tbnw=188&start=0&ndsp=48&ved=1t:429,r:13,s:0,i:122
You get one when you can't afford your heating bill...
Looks like it indeed is a scrapyard fire near Dagenham Dock station
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/518947/20131101/london-fire-dagenham-scrap-metal-yard-chequers.htm
[edit - Josias beat me to the above link!]
As for whether Mike's on to a winner overall, I suspect a lot depends on the debates again, namely whether they happen at all, and if so, how Clegg or his successor (but probably Clegg) performs in them, and whether Farage is there. A three-way set will boost Lib Dem scores across the board from where they are now for the same reason as last time. It wouldn't be to anything like the same extent but would save plenty of deposits. If they don't take place, or if Farage is there, acting as the NOTA candidate, it may well be a night for a return to the phrase heard frequently in the 1960s but not so often since: "The Liberal lost his deposit".
Besides, if you're to poor to heat your hovel, you won't be able to afford the beater, loader, driver, plucker, cook, whisky-holder, retriever-dogs and mistresses (*) needed to fill the hovel.
(*) Some good fellows reduce expenditure by combining the retriever-dogs and mistresses roles.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=DutNY63LqO0
It's way way out of my social grade / circle, but it does look kind of fun. I've seen parties of them out in the country, and they just seem to get lashed from early doors and eat loads, then go to the pub and get lashed and eat loads.
I've done clay pigeons on a stag do, it was slightly scary.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24774749
http://www.usmadetoys.com/images/11235.jpg
Maybe he is just a good journalist!
Just heard that Paul Gambacini arrested under Yew Tree probe. Link BBC
PAUL GAMBACINI!! ONE OF MY HEROS. Is nothing sacred?
When I was younger, all the jokes on that line used to be about choirmasters and scout leaders, presumably for the same reason.
I'd sack the builder. It's like he's only had a few years' experience.
Oh, and I'm not sure even the Berne loading gauge could cope with a giraffe.