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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’ve gone for 150+ lost LD deposits in this PaddyPower betting market

Michael Thrasher of the Rallings/Thrasher duo has recently surveyed LD performances and he reported that the situation is dire. The headline “Lib Dems Need Resurrection Not Recovery” sums it up.

Read the full story here

CarlottaVance

First!

CarlottaVance

Interesting comment at the end of that Thrasher article:

"Because of our voting system, this Liberal Democrat decline is likely to assist both the Conservatives and Labour in terms of Commons' seats but the Conservatives stand to gain the most."

Not a view aired frequently.......

AndyJS

The 150th lowest LD share in 2010 was 15.46% (in South Holland and the Deepings).

SouthamObserver

This is rather good:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/01/richard-littlejohn-wrong-about-jack-monroe-daily-mail

Pulpstar

GeoffM said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

I've just finished working on today's racing cards and was about to put my fancies up at Pulpstar's request. None of them are outstanding, but I have backed them myself to small stakes - all each way unless stated otherwise.
.........
And if that lot win, you'll hear my celebrations from wherever it is you live1

Good luck

Many thanks for this too Peter. Much appreciated. I'm following you on everything after 3pm because before that the liquid lunch was in full swing and access to the phone was limited. Knowing my luck the best of the picks were early in the afternoon

Nah - They are still to come I am sure. Anyway I'm down £3.33 on the morning picks if its a consolation

JosiasJessop

SouthamObserver said:

This is rather good:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/01/richard-littlejohn-wrong-about-jack-monroe-daily-mail

I commented yesterday that attacking Ms Monroe was a bad idea. Littlejohn's article this morning was fairly reprehensible IMHO. Why not just interview her and put questions to her, instead of doing a hatchet job?

AlastairMeeks

In 2010, the Lib Dem vote share went up in those seats where it finished third, so they were reverse squeezed. Presumably it did so on the general public mood of agreeing with Nick. This effect will unwind and then some.

For all that, will it unwind all the way so that the Lib Dems will poll below 5% in vast numbers of seats? I'm highly sceptical. I'd rather bet on the 2/1 of 50 seats or fewer than the 7/2 of more than 150 seats.

But we can be a bit more scientific than that. Let's assume that the Lib Dems are competitive in 65 seats, averaging say 35% in those constituencies. If they are to poll, say, 15% nationally overall, they will need to tally an average of 12.8% in the other 585 seats. That represents a drop on their average in those 585 seats of roughly 40% (others can research the precise percentage drop, but that should be close enough and if anything on the high side). Assuming that our host is correct and that campaigning will be non-existent in all those seats, we should be seeing broadly equal drops in all of these seats. So the number of lost deposits would be roughly equal to the number of seats where the Lib Dems polled less than 8.33% at the last election.

Others can adjust these percentages to their personal taste, but it seems to me that the value is at the low end of this market, not the high end.

JonnyJimmy

tim will be drooling:

@MichaelLCrick
Just doorstepped Tory Chairman Grant Shapps about extraordinary letter I've received about his internet software business. More later ...

Pulpstar

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

This is rather good:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/01/richard-littlejohn-wrong-about-jack-monroe-daily-mail

I commented yesterday that attacking Ms Monroe was a bad idea. Littlejohn's article this morning was fairly reprehensible IMHO. Why not just interview her and put questions to her, instead of doing a hatchet job?

He seems to have a problem with the hoi polloi eating kale and pesto so far as I can work out from the article.

Tim_B

Some interesting Formula 1 news -

Pirelli threatened to not supply tires for next season unless they could test 2014 tires before the season starts, due to events at Silverstone among others.

They now have an agreement with all the F1 teams to run two sets of 2014 tires per driver at either FP1 or FP2 in Brazil.

It's yet to be sanctioned by the FIA.

- sorry Morris Dancer, I know in the UK tires has a Y in it, but my spell checker won't listen :-(

Charles

JonnyJimmy said:

tim will be drooling even more than usual :

@MichaelLCrick
Just doorstepped Tory Chairman Grant Shapps about extraordinary letter I've received about his internet software business. More later ...

fixed it for you

GeoffM

JonnyJimmy said:

tim will be drooling:

@MichaelLCrick
Just doorstepped Tory Chairman Grant Shapps about extraordinary letter I've received about his internet software business. More later ...

I fear that it may not be drool.

Anorak

Bit puzzled why anyone of any political stripe would think a Littlejohn article worthy of comment, other than for pointing and laughing at.

Maybe his surname gives a clue as to his irrational anger.

AndyJS

antifrank said:

In 2010, the Lib Dem vote share went up in those seats where it finished third, so they were reverse squeezed. Presumably it did so on the general public mood of agreeing with Nick. This effect will unwind and then some.

For all that, will it unwind all the way so that the Lib Dems will poll below 5% in vast numbers of seats? I'm highly sceptical. I'd rather bet on the 2/1 of 50 seats or fewer than the 7/2 of more than 150 seats.

But we can be a bit more scientific than that. Let's assume that the Lib Dems are competitive in 65 seats, averaging say 35% in those constituencies. If they are to poll, say, 15% nationally overall, they will need to tally an average of 12.8% in the other 585 seats. That represents a drop on their average in those 585 seats of roughly 40% (others can research the precise percentage drop, but that should be close enough and if anything on the high side). Assuming that our host is correct and that campaigning will be non-existent in all those seats, we should be seeing broadly equal drops in all of these seats. So the number of lost deposits would be roughly equal to the number of seats where the Lib Dems polled less than 8.33% at the last election.

Others can adjust these percentages to their personal taste, but it seems to me that the value is at the low end of this market, not the high end.

The LDs polled less than 8.33% in 9 seats in 2010.

CarlottaVance

Completely OT - but quite fun - Nate Silver's latest prediction failure - the US State likely to be the last to legalise gay marriage - Daily Show Video:

http://gawker.com/gay-couple-cant-find-any-homophobes-in-the-two-most-ho-1455395116

marktheowl

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

This is rather good:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/01/richard-littlejohn-wrong-about-jack-monroe-daily-mail

I commented yesterday that attacking Ms Monroe was a bad idea. Littlejohn's article this morning was fairly reprehensible IMHO. Why not just interview her and put questions to her, instead of doing a hatchet job?

Because it's Littlejohn and his sort of polemic doesn't work with things like facts. It's a really weird one The Mail attacking her so viciously, ok she's left-wing but she's done The Mail would, according to its rhetoric, love to see those who end up in her situation do; live within her means and try to get gainful employment.

The point which I can only assume they're unbelievably badly trying to make is that not every person on welfare or low wages is going to take up her recipes but you'd rather her tell people to cook stuff cheap than a moralising millionaire like Jamie Oliver.

Littlejohn's piece reaches a nadir when he assumes poor people are incapable of doing anything other than opening a tin and that eating pesto is akin to eating caviar. Any fule know that if you're skint pesto shoved on plain pasta makes it just about bearable without a sauce.

MarkSenior

Sorry Mike , but IMHO you are calling this one completely wrong . If you look at the 1979 GE which was the Liberals worst performance in relevant memory , they polled 13.8% . In how many seats did they poll below 5% the current deposit level ? it was just 6 . If they had contested all the seats excluding NI it may have increased to perhaps 15 .
The value bet is clearly below 50 .

Financier

OT

The coming Ukranian Shale boom

http://oilprice.com/newsletters/free/opintel11113

Tissue_Price

MarkSenior said:

The value bet is clearly below 50 .

When we last looked at this market I suggested that both extremes might be value (this far out from the election). With a relatively even spread of support, the middle bands represent a fairly narrow % window in each case.

Lennon

Mike's comment about the 75 seats in which they expect to be competitive is an interesting one - Norwich South is the seat that they won with the lowest % of the vote (29.4%) - there are 141 seats where they polled above that %... some interesting choices for LD high command. (I appreciate that swing required is probably more relevant than pure % of vote in isolation, but still interesting)

And yes - in my view the 50-150 band is not value - 11.82% to 15.46% is a fairly tight range for 100 seats.

JonnyJimmy

Oops.. I've been posting on the last thread, despite having already posted on this one

Len McCluskey was elected on the votes of less than 10% of his members. I imagine turnout was so poor because the alternative was SWP backed Jerry Hicks. What kind of a choice is that for any sane person? Does anyone know the selection procedure to get to the final two candidates?

JosiasJessop

marktheowl said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

This is rather good:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/01/richard-littlejohn-wrong-about-jack-monroe-daily-mail

I commented yesterday that attacking Ms Monroe was a bad idea. Littlejohn's article this morning was fairly reprehensible IMHO. Why not just interview her and put questions to her, instead of doing a hatchet job?

Because it's Littlejohn and his sort of polemic doesn't work with things like facts. It's a really weird one The Mail attacking her so viciously, ok she's left-wing but she's done The Mail would, according to its rhetoric, love to see those who end up in her situation do; live within her means and try to get gainful employment.

The point which I can only assume they're unbelievably badly trying to make is that not every person on welfare or low wages is going to take up her recipes but you'd rather her tell people to cook stuff cheap than a moralising millionaire like Jamie Oliver.

Littlejohn's piece reaches a nadir when he assumes poor people are incapable of doing anything other than opening a tin and that eating pesto is akin to eating caviar. Any fule know that if you're skint pesto shoved on plain pasta makes it just about bearable without a sauce.

Yes, both the Conservatives and Labour can take something out of her message. When she got into a difficult position, she hardly say back and sponged. She strived, and got herself out of that position.

And maybe helped other people in the process, by teaching them that you can cook reasonable-quality food cheaply.

Tissue_Price

JonnyJimmy said:

Does anyone know the selection procedure to get to the final two candidates?

I think a mob was sent round to all the houses of the more moderate candidates.

surbiton

Mike, you are a hard man. But I think you will lose this one. I would not be surprised if it is a little as 50 seats !

There are lots of anti Tory and quite a few anti Labour voters out there. Come election time, notwithstanding many are totally pissed off , they will return. Some to Greens but a lot to LD.

TGOHF

GeoffM said:

JonnyJimmy said:

tim will be drooling:

@MichaelLCrick
Just doorstepped Tory Chairman Grant Shapps about extraordinary letter I've received about his internet software business. More later ...

I fear that it may not be drool.

Crick seems have lurched to the left since he joined C4 - perhaps that's why the Beeb doesn't think it is biased - all relative..

taffys

I don't like littlejohn but you have to say the left are rubbish at finding examples of the poverty they talk so much about.

If Monroe the best they can do?

SimonStClare

150+ lost LD deposits in this PaddyPower betting market – a mere flesh wound..!

FPT

@Charles – cheers for your earlier reply wrt RBS – much appreciated.

CarlottaVance

TGOHF said:

GeoffM said:

JonnyJimmy said:

tim will be drooling:

@MichaelLCrick
Just doorstepped Tory Chairman Grant Shapps about extraordinary letter I've received about his internet software business. More later ...

I fear that it may not be drool.

Crick seems have lurched to the left since he joined C4 - perhaps that's why the Beeb doesn't think it is biased - all relative..

Nah - Crick's ok - he'll go after dodgy ones whatever their persuasion - he's a journalist first, a leftie a very distant second.....

Fenster

Anorak said:

Bit puzzled why anyone of any political stripe would think a Littlejohn article worthy of comment, other than for pointing and laughing at.

Maybe his surname gives a clue as to his irrational anger.

I haven't read a Littlejohn article in quite a while but I'm sure he is one of the most widely read and financially successful opinion writers/polemicists in the UK.

I suspect he doesn't always believe in what he says and that he's probably more urbane in private. He's clearly someone who has a genius for picking a hot-potato subject and writing about it in an articulately condensed way which people can easily understand. And then get mega worked up about. There's no little skill in that. Perfect for the Daily Mail audience. He's like a less high-brow SeanT

Nick Robinson, in his Downing Street book, touches on Littlejohn's success and his brief time as a presenter of his own programme on Sky News. I always thought Littlejohn's programme was pulled because it wasn't popular, but apparently it was because Sky News is signed up to the broadcast news impartiality agreement and Littlejohn's stridency strayed beyond what is allowed.

I imagine lefties loved him when he was on prime-time telly!

JosiasJessop

taffys said:

I don't like littlejohn but you have to say the left are rubbish at finding examples of the poverty they talk so much about.

If Monroe the best they can do?

Why? She's eloquent and relatively camera-friendly. However, her lifespan as a symbol of the poor will not last long if she's seen as a face of a political campaign (for any party), and earns money (however small) from the media. She won't be seen as *one of us* by the very people she is meant to represent. Which I think was the whole aim of Littlejohn's hatchet job.

Which is a little sad.

CarlottaVance

The biter bit!

Telegraph bitten by their own Voodoo poll (is Gibraltar British or Spanish - answer 'Spanish') bite back and trace thousands of votes to Spain's Ministry of Defence:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/gibraltar/10420900/Spanish-ministry-of-defence-staff-vote-thousands-of-times-in-Telegraph-Gibraltar-poll.html

MarkSenior

CarlottaVance said:

TGOHF said:

GeoffM said:

JonnyJimmy said:

tim will be drooling:

@MichaelLCrick
Just doorstepped Tory Chairman Grant Shapps about extraordinary letter I've received about his internet software business. More later ...

I fear that it may not be drool.

Crick seems have lurched to the left since he joined C4 - perhaps that's why the Beeb doesn't think it is biased - all relative..

Nah - Crick's ok - he'll go after dodgy ones whatever their persuasion - he's a journalist first, a leftie a very distant second.....

Except for his mate Woolas

Tissue_Price

TGOHF said:

Crick seems have lurched to the left since he joined C4 - perhaps that's why the Beeb doesn't think it is biased - all relative..

I think Crick's an excellent journalist who goes after what he sees as otherwise-buried untruths qv Plebgate. With Shapps, we shall see.

R0berts

Littlejohn's article was of course vile, as always, but hopefully the lass has got some publicity out of it and the rancid under-evolved oaf has for once accidentally done a tiny positive thing for humanity.

Finding money for food can be tough full stop on benefits.

But if you're lucky enough to have 20 or 30 quid spare at one time to do a relatively big shop, you can make it go a very long way. (as I'm sure most people on benefits are aware, when they've stopped throwing tins of spaghetti and white lightning at their plasma telly or whatever Littlejohn thinks goes on)

A whole chicken to chop up, load of veg, pasta, noodles, few tins of chopped toms and the like, do you for ages depending how many are eating, especially if you've got freezer room.

OldKingCole

JonnyJimmy said:

Oops.. I've been posting on the last thread, despite having already posted on this one

Len McCluskey was elected on the votes of less than 10% of his members. I imagine turnout was so poor because the alternative was SWP backed Jerry Hicks. What kind of a choice is that for any sane person? Does anyone know the selection procedure to get to the final two candidates?

I appear to be a Unite member. I say "appear" because according to my bank statements I haven't paid a penny to a Trade Union for at least five years, since I retired from work altogether. However at some point, and I can't recall the details, the Union to which I belonged when an NHS employee was one of those which merged into the conglomerate now known as Unite. I don't think I've actually paid any money to Unite per se.
However a few months ago I received a ballot paper and election addresses for McCluskey vs Hicks which, IIRC, I threw in the bin, although tempted to vote for Hicks if only because he wasn't McCluskey, and this morning I had an email from the newly elected regional rep for the section of Unite to which I belonged when I worked.

Very odd.

CarlottaVance

The New Yorker has a cartoon just for tim:

http://www.condenaststore.com/-sp/Sure-we-need-affordable-housing-just-so-long-as-it-doesn-t-come-at-the-e-Prints_i8541416_.htm?AID=1247905545

In an article on JFK for the rest of us:

http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2013/11/04/131104crbo_books_gopnik?currentPage=all

R0berts

Going back to London mayor, I'm kicking myself that I didn't get that 33/1 on Khan.

I think 11/1 (PP) is still a good bet, but some weird principle is stopping me backing it, out of annoyance that I missed the far better price. Does that ever happen to anyone else, or just me?

I can't see Jowell. Perhaps because I can't stand her personally. Maybe a case of heart over head (or the opposite of "talking your book", whatever that is. Booking your talk? Betting your prejudices?)

marktheowl

I've thought the Michael Green/ Shapps story had a long way to run for a while. Not saying Mr Shapps' company did anything quite as nefarious but there's a great website called The Salty Droid which is dedicated to exposing internet marketers which make similar claims to How To Corp and the full story of these companies often isn't pretty. Why on Earth Dave let him be Tory party chairman is utterly beyond me, the original Michael Green story should've rung huge alarm bells.

Here's a good longform article summarising the weird world of internet marketing: http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/10/2984893/scamworld-get-rich-quick-schemes-mutate-into-an-online-monster

Pulpstar

R0berts said:

Going back to London mayor, I'm kicking myself that I didn't get that 33/1 on Khan.

I think 11/1 (PP) is still a good bet, but some weird principle is stopping me backing it, out of annoyance that I missed the far better price. Does that ever happen to anyone else, or just me?

I can't see Jowell. Perhaps because I can't stand her personally. Maybe a case of heart over head (or the opposite of "talking your book", whatever that is. Booking your talk? Betting your prejudices?)

Just because you didn't make a decision in the past makes no difference to what you should or should not do now. I too missed the 33-1 but I'm on at 12s.

AlastairMeeks

Pulpstar said:

R0berts said:

Going back to London mayor, I'm kicking myself that I didn't get that 33/1 on Khan.

I think 11/1 (PP) is still a good bet, but some weird principle is stopping me backing it, out of annoyance that I missed the far better price. Does that ever happen to anyone else, or just me?

I can't see Jowell. Perhaps because I can't stand her personally. Maybe a case of heart over head (or the opposite of "talking your book", whatever that is. Booking your talk? Betting your prejudices?)

Just because you didn't make a decision in the past makes no difference to what you should or should not do now. I too missed the 33-1 but I'm on at 12s.

A bet might have been terrible at 33/1 but excellent at 12/1 owing to changed circumstances.

R0berts

Pulpstar said:

R0berts said:

Going back to London mayor, I'm kicking myself that I didn't get that 33/1 on Khan.

I think 11/1 (PP) is still a good bet, but some weird principle is stopping me backing it, out of annoyance that I missed the far better price. Does that ever happen to anyone else, or just me?

I can't see Jowell. Perhaps because I can't stand her personally. Maybe a case of heart over head (or the opposite of "talking your book", whatever that is. Booking your talk? Betting your prejudices?)

Just because you didn't make a decision in the past makes no difference to what you should or should not do now. I too missed the 33-1 but I'm on at 12s.

I know, but it just sort of does!

Like when you take a price on a horse then it drifts, your winnings feel somehow hollow.

Pulpstar

As well as considerations of maths and value in betting there is alot of psychology. For instance suddenly upping stakes to chase losses is a terrible idea, similarly upping them after a winning streak or lowering them. Missing bets and value and particularly big priced winners is annoying but its going to happen alot to anyone who bets regularly.

Pulpstar

R0berts said:

Pulpstar said:

R0berts said:

Going back to London mayor, I'm kicking myself that I didn't get that 33/1 on Khan.

I think 11/1 (PP) is still a good bet, but some weird principle is stopping me backing it, out of annoyance that I missed the far better price. Does that ever happen to anyone else, or just me?

I can't see Jowell. Perhaps because I can't stand her personally. Maybe a case of heart over head (or the opposite of "talking your book", whatever that is. Booking your talk? Betting your prejudices?)

Just because you didn't make a decision in the past makes no difference to what you should or should not do now. I too missed the 33-1 but I'm on at 12s.

I know, but it just sort of does!

Like when you take a price on a horse then it drifts, your winnings feel somehow hollow.

Most bookis do Best Odds guaranteed so thats not really a worry, happily but it can happen at the track...

Garethofthevale

MarkSenior said:

Sorry Mike , but IMHO you are calling this one completely wrong . If you look at the 1979 GE which was the Liberals worst performance in relevant memory , they polled 13.8% . In how many seats did they poll below 5% the current deposit level ? it was just 6 . If they had contested all the seats excluding NI it may have increased to perhaps 15 .
The value bet is clearly below 50 .

Mark the thing you forget is that in most seats in 1979, certainly in England, there were only 3 choices, Con, Lab or Lib. So people who didn't like the main 2 had to go for Lib.

This time there is so much more choice - Green, Respect, UKIP, Nationalists, TUSC etc.
At the same time the LDs have for the first time in a long while become part of the establishment.

It is a great irony that having been so keen to abolish FPTP, the LDs will likely be relying on it heavily to hang on to their seats. Under PR the LDs would likely get mullered (think of the FDP in Germany)

Pulpstar

R0berts said:

Pulpstar said:

R0berts said:

Going back to London mayor, I'm kicking myself that I didn't get that 33/1 on Khan.

I think 11/1 (PP) is still a good bet, but some weird principle is stopping me backing it, out of annoyance that I missed the far better price. Does that ever happen to anyone else, or just me?

I can't see Jowell. Perhaps because I can't stand her personally. Maybe a case of heart over head (or the opposite of "talking your book", whatever that is. Booking your talk? Betting your prejudices?)

Just because you didn't make a decision in the past makes no difference to what you should or should not do now. I too missed the 33-1 but I'm on at 12s.

I know, but it just sort of does!

Like when you take a price on a horse then it drifts, your winnings feel somehow hollow.

Big degree of psychological toughness involved with punting !

Stuart_Dickson

Carwyn Jones: Referendum announcement 'an important day for Wales'

"It shows we are being treated as equal partners.

“The announcement that has been proposed is a substantial package. We are disappointed that air passenger duty for long-haul flights is not being devolved.”

... “These changes mean that, in the next few years, Wales will be in a position to tackle the improvements required for the M4, and to shape its own taxes, including the much needed reform of stamp duty land tax.

"A future Assembly will also be able to call a referendum on the devolution of rate-varying powers for income tax.”

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/carwyn-jones-referendum-announcement-an-6264110

surbiton

Fenster said:

Anorak said:

Bit puzzled why anyone of any political stripe would think a Littlejohn article worthy of comment, other than for pointing and laughing at.

Maybe his surname gives a clue as to his irrational anger.

I haven't read a Littlejohn article in quite a while but I'm sure he is one of the most widely read and financially successful opinion writers/polemicists in the UK.

I suspect he doesn't always believe in what he says and that he's probably more urbane in private. He's clearly someone who has a genius for picking a hot-potato subject and writing about it in an articulately condensed way which people can easily understand. And then get mega worked up about. There's no little skill in that. Perfect for the Daily Mail audience. He's like a less high-brow SeanT

Nick Robinson, in his Downing Street book, touches on Littlejohn's success and his brief time as a presenter of his own programme on Sky News. I always thought Littlejohn's programme was pulled because it wasn't popular, but apparently it was because Sky News is signed up to the broadcast news impartiality agreement and Littlejohn's stridency strayed beyond what is allowed.

I imagine lefties loved him when he was on prime-time telly!

That's odd. The Essex chappie who does thei the Sky business programme does not exactly suppress his prejudices.

Pulpstar

Garethofthevale said:

MarkSenior said:

Sorry Mike , but IMHO you are calling this one completely wrong . If you look at the 1979 GE which was the Liberals worst performance in relevant memory , they polled 13.8% . In how many seats did they poll below 5% the current deposit level ? it was just 6 . If they had contested all the seats excluding NI it may have increased to perhaps 15 .
The value bet is clearly below 50 .

Mark the thing you forget is that in most seats in 1979, certainly in England, there were only 3 choices, Con, Lab or Lib. So people who didn't like the main 2 had to go for Lib.

This time there is so much more choice - Green, Respect, UKIP, Nationalists, TUSC etc.
At the same time the LDs have for the first time in a long while become part of the establishment.

It is a great irony that having been so keen to abolish FPTP, the LDs will likely be relying on it heavily to hang on to their seats. Under PR the LDs would likely get mullered (think of the FDP in Germany)

Only the Lib Dems can finish 3rd under FPTP.

corporeal

Garethofthevale said:

MarkSenior said:

Sorry Mike , but IMHO you are calling this one completely wrong . If you look at the 1979 GE which was the Liberals worst performance in relevant memory , they polled 13.8% . In how many seats did they poll below 5% the current deposit level ? it was just 6 . If they had contested all the seats excluding NI it may have increased to perhaps 15 .
The value bet is clearly below 50 .

Mark the thing you forget is that in most seats in 1979, certainly in England, there were only 3 choices, Con, Lab or Lib. So people who didn't like the main 2 had to go for Lib.

This time there is so much more choice - Green, Respect, UKIP, Nationalists, TUSC etc.
At the same time the LDs have for the first time in a long while become part of the establishment.

It is a great irony that having been so keen to abolish FPTP, the LDs will likely be relying on it heavily to hang on to their seats. Under PR the LDs would likely get mullered (think of the FDP in Germany)

Liberals currently have <9% of the seats in Parliament (on 23% of the vote). Under straight list PR if they had as disastrous a result as the low end of the current opinion polling ranks then they'd have about the same number of seats.

Next

Stuart_Dickson said:

Carwyn Jones: Referendum announcement 'an important day for Wales'

"It shows we are being treated as equal partners.

“The announcement that has been proposed is a substantial package. We are disappointed that air passenger duty for long-haul flights is not being devolved.”

... “These changes mean that, in the next few years, Wales will be in a position to tackle the improvements required for the M4, and to shape its own taxes, including the much needed reform of stamp duty land tax.

"A future Assembly will also be able to call a referendum on the devolution of rate-varying powers for income tax.”

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/carwyn-jones-referendum-announcement-an-6264110

I note that Wales would get control over Stamp Duty.

I wonder which way that would go? Up, maybe, or perhaps up?

I'm still waiting for Miliband in his "cost of living" crisis to complain about the amount of money the government takes from people when buying their own home, at a time they can least afford it.

I maybe waiting some time.

Charles

R0berts said:

Littlejohn's article was of course vile, as always, but hopefully the lass has got some publicity out of it and the rancid under-evolved oaf has for once accidentally done a tiny positive thing for humanity.

Finding money for food can be tough full stop on benefits.

But if you're lucky enough to have 20 or 30 quid spare at one time to do a relatively big shop, you can make it go a very long way. (as I'm sure most people on benefits are aware, when they've stopped throwing tins of spaghetti and white lightning at their plasma telly or whatever Littlejohn thinks goes on)

A whole chicken to chop up, load of veg, pasta, noodles, few tins of chopped toms and the like, do you for ages depending how many are eating, especially if you've got freezer room.

A freezer? A freezer! Luxury!

When ey were a kid...

etc etc

;-)

R0berts

Pulpstar said:

R0berts said:

Pulpstar said:

R0berts said:

Going back to London mayor, I'm kicking myself that I didn't get that 33/1 on Khan.

I think 11/1 (PP) is still a good bet, but some weird principle is stopping me backing it, out of annoyance that I missed the far better price. Does that ever happen to anyone else, or just me?

I can't see Jowell. Perhaps because I can't stand her personally. Maybe a case of heart over head (or the opposite of "talking your book", whatever that is. Booking your talk? Betting your prejudices?)

Just because you didn't make a decision in the past makes no difference to what you should or should not do now. I too missed the 33-1 but I'm on at 12s.

I know, but it just sort of does!

Like when you take a price on a horse then it drifts, your winnings feel somehow hollow.

Big degree of psychological toughness involved with punting !

Suppose hardcore punters can make a packet on big price movements too? But I haven't got the time, inclination, money or addictive personality to get that much into it. Old school put a bet on hope it comes in for me.

On which note, I don't fancy any of these Lib Dem bets. Both Mike and Mark Senior (below) make good points. Suppose the 150+ looks best "value", but, nah.

Pulpstar

corporeal said:

Garethofthevale said:

MarkSenior said:

Sorry Mike , but IMHO you are calling this one completely wrong . If you look at the 1979 GE which was the Liberals worst performance in relevant memory , they polled 13.8% . In how many seats did they poll below 5% the current deposit level ? it was just 6 . If they had contested all the seats excluding NI it may have increased to perhaps 15 .
The value bet is clearly below 50 .

Mark the thing you forget is that in most seats in 1979, certainly in England, there were only 3 choices, Con, Lab or Lib. So people who didn't like the main 2 had to go for Lib.

This time there is so much more choice - Green, Respect, UKIP, Nationalists, TUSC etc.
At the same time the LDs have for the first time in a long while become part of the establishment.

It is a great irony that having been so keen to abolish FPTP, the LDs will likely be relying on it heavily to hang on to their seats. Under PR the LDs would likely get mullered (think of the FDP in Germany)

Liberals currently have

Both UKIP and Conservatives have far less seats on 9%, playing about with elecotralcalculus - meanwhile Labour would still have about 50+ !

Tissue_Price

R0berts said:

Suppose hardcore punters can make a packet on big price movements too? But I haven't got the time, inclination, money or addictive personality to get that much into it. Old school put a bet on hope it comes in for me.

Indeed. Lump on and walk the dog. It can be hard to resist the temptation to lay off even when the odds are still in your favour. Handling probabilities of sub 2% and above 98% is, I think, a difficult thing for our brains to do intuitively.

JonnyJimmy

Has Letmebecleariband been clear on anything, ever? Even on his much discussed price-freeze on energy bills, has he been clear on how it would work if gas prices rocketed? And that's hardly an unprecedented event.

corporeal

Pulpstar said:

corporeal said:

Garethofthevale said:

MarkSenior said:

Sorry Mike , but IMHO you are calling this one completely wrong . If you look at the 1979 GE which was the Liberals worst performance in relevant memory , they polled 13.8% . In how many seats did they poll below 5% the current deposit level ? it was just 6 . If they had contested all the seats excluding NI it may have increased to perhaps 15 .
The value bet is clearly below 50 .

Mark the thing you forget is that in most seats in 1979, certainly in England, there were only 3 choices, Con, Lab or Lib. So people who didn't like the main 2 had to go for Lib.

This time there is so much more choice - Green, Respect, UKIP, Nationalists, TUSC etc.
At the same time the LDs have for the first time in a long while become part of the establishment.

It is a great irony that having been so keen to abolish FPTP, the LDs will likely be relying on it heavily to hang on to their seats. Under PR the LDs would likely get mullered (think of the FDP in Germany)

Liberals currently have

Both UKIP and Conservatives have far less seats on 9%, playing about with elecotralcalculus - meanwhile Labour would still have about 50+ !

Possibly, I'd be a little skeptical of the reliabilities of modelling with such a big shift to have the Conservatives on 9%.

(Of course the Lib Dem score in 2010 was slightly more than in 1987, and slightly less than 1983 both of which elections when they won seat numbers in the low 20s).

CarlottaVance

@tim: "Police drop investigation into Grant Shapps’ former business"

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/11/police-drop-investigation-into-grant-shapps-business/

http://cdn2.spectator.co.uk/wp-content/blogs.dir/11/files/2013/11/downloaded_file.pdf

R0berts

Charles said:

R0berts said:

Littlejohn's article was of course vile, as always, but hopefully the lass has got some publicity out of it and the rancid under-evolved oaf has for once accidentally done a tiny positive thing for humanity.

Finding money for food can be tough full stop on benefits.

But if you're lucky enough to have 20 or 30 quid spare at one time to do a relatively big shop, you can make it go a very long way. (as I'm sure most people on benefits are aware, when they've stopped throwing tins of spaghetti and white lightning at their plasma telly or whatever Littlejohn thinks goes on)

A whole chicken to chop up, load of veg, pasta, noodles, few tins of chopped toms and the like, do you for ages depending how many are eating, especially if you've got freezer room.

A freezer? A freezer! Luxury!

When ey were a kid...

etc etc

;-)

You won't get many pre-cooked meals in a tiny ice-box fridge freezer.

Being a Cameron Tory, I expect you've got a "chest freezer" in the "summer house" that "The Help" "fetches" the "braces" of "pheasant" from whilst you discuss "the markets" so I wouldn't expect you to understand these things.





;-)

Anorak

R0berts said:

Charles said:

R0berts said:

Littlejohn's article was of course vile, as always, but hopefully the lass has got some publicity out of it and the rancid under-evolved oaf has for once accidentally done a tiny positive thing for humanity.

Finding money for food can be tough full stop on benefits.

But if you're lucky enough to have 20 or 30 quid spare at one time to do a relatively big shop, you can make it go a very long way. (as I'm sure most people on benefits are aware, when they've stopped throwing tins of spaghetti and white lightning at their plasma telly or whatever Littlejohn thinks goes on)

A whole chicken to chop up, load of veg, pasta, noodles, few tins of chopped toms and the like, do you for ages depending how many are eating, especially if you've got freezer room.

A freezer? A freezer! Luxury!

When ey were a kid...

etc etc

;-)

You won't get many pre-cooked meals in a tiny ice-box fridge freezer.

Being a Cameron Tory, I expect you've got a "chest freezer" in the "summer house" that "The Help" "fetches" the "braces" of "pheasant" from whilst you discuss "the markets" so I wouldn't expect you to understand these things.

;-)

Charles only eats pheasant which he has just shot. Any remaining birds are distributed amongst the beater*, loaders* and other estate staff. Freezers are for the hoi-polloi!!

*You know the chap that reloads one gun while you're blasting away with the other. I saw it on Downton Abbey, but have no idea what they are actually called

CarlottaVance

tim said:

Tories putting out this a letter from a fortnight ago, wonder what Crick has.

Probably the same thing - from Steve McCabe?

JonnyJimmy

R0berts said:

You won't get many pre-cooked meals in a tiny ice-box fridge freezer.

Being a Cameron Tory, I expect you've got a "chest freezer" in the "summer house" that "The Help" "fetches" the "braces" of "pheasant" from whilst you discuss "the markets" so I wouldn't expect you to understand these things.





;-)

I may have to "submit" you here http://badquotemarks.tumblr.com/

marktheowl

Fenster said:

Anorak said:

Bit puzzled why anyone of any political stripe would think a Littlejohn article worthy of comment, other than for pointing and laughing at.

Maybe his surname gives a clue as to his irrational anger.

I haven't read a Littlejohn article in quite a while but I'm sure he is one of the most widely read and financially successful opinion writers/polemicists in the UK.

I suspect he doesn't always believe in what he says and that he's probably more urbane in private. He's clearly someone who has a genius for picking a hot-potato subject and writing about it in an articulately condensed way which people can easily understand. And then get mega worked up about. There's no little skill in that. Perfect for the Daily Mail audience. He's like a less high-brow SeanT

Nick Robinson, in his Downing Street book, touches on Littlejohn's success and his brief time as a presenter of his own programme on Sky News. I always thought Littlejohn's programme was pulled because it wasn't popular, but apparently it was because Sky News is signed up to the broadcast news impartiality agreement and Littlejohn's stridency strayed beyond what is allowed.

I imagine lefties loved him when he was on prime-time telly!

You're right in a way but your opening sentence is rather telling, Littlejohn's heyday was about 15 years ago at the beginning of the New Labour years when you could be deeply unpleasant about someone personally and farcically scaremonger and still just about get away with it. Jeremy Clarkson realised somewhere in the middle of the last decade that even when espousing very right-wing views you have to seem vaguely comfortable with the century you're living in to not sound like a nasty loon.

TGOHF

Tissue_Price said:

TGOHF said:

Crick seems have lurched to the left since he joined C4 - perhaps that's why the Beeb doesn't think it is biased - all relative..

I think Crick's an excellent journalist who goes after what he sees as otherwise-buried untruths qv Plebgate. With Shapps, we shall see.

Was more about a series of tweets he's been posting obsessed with class - e.g. "Villa should be renamed the toffees as Prince William and Cameron support them."

Normal people just don't think like that - only bitter class obsessed lefties - usually from up north.

Scott_P

@krishgm: Grant Shapps, Michael Green, software sales, and the fraud investigation that isn't happening: http://t.co/l9PI6YYnfT #c4news

Pulpstar

One thing - If I get a single Lib Dem leaflet through my door I'll be very disappointed as it is going to be a safe Labour seat, but one CON needs to win a majority really (Derbyshire North East). A Lib Dem leaflet would indicate that they aren't targeting resources properly which could mean both sub 32 seats and too many saved deposits ;D

Ishmael_X

Anorak said:

R0berts said:

Charles said:

R0berts said:

Littlejohn's article was of course vile, as always, but hopefully the lass has got some publicity out of it and the rancid under-evolved oaf has for once accidentally done a tiny positive thing for humanity.

Finding money for food can be tough full stop on benefits.

But if you're lucky enough to have 20 or 30 quid spare at one time to do a relatively big shop, you can make it go a very long way. (as I'm sure most people on benefits are aware, when they've stopped throwing tins of spaghetti and white lightning at their plasma telly or whatever Littlejohn thinks goes on)

A whole chicken to chop up, load of veg, pasta, noodles, few tins of chopped toms and the like, do you for ages depending how many are eating, especially if you've got freezer room.

A freezer? A freezer! Luxury!

When ey were a kid...

etc etc

;-)

You won't get many pre-cooked meals in a tiny ice-box fridge freezer.

Being a Cameron Tory, I expect you've got a "chest freezer" in the "summer house" that "The Help" "fetches" the "braces" of "pheasant" from whilst you discuss "the markets" so I wouldn't expect you to understand these things.

;-)

Charles only eats pheasant which he has just shot. Any remaining birds are distributed amongst the beater*, loaders* and other estate staff. Freezers are for the hoi-polloi!!

*You know the chap that reloads one gun while you're blasting away with the other. I saw it on Downton Abbey, but have no idea what they are actually called

Loaders.

MikeSmithson

Whatever Crick did an amazing job with the Andrew Mitchell plebgate story and totally turned round the narrative. He's a good journalist.

His biggest hatred is not the Tories but the LDs.

JosiasJessop

R0berts said:

Charles said:

R0berts said:

Littlejohn's article was of course vile, as always, but hopefully the lass has got some publicity out of it and the rancid under-evolved oaf has for once accidentally done a tiny positive thing for humanity.

Finding money for food can be tough full stop on benefits.

But if you're lucky enough to have 20 or 30 quid spare at one time to do a relatively big shop, you can make it go a very long way. (as I'm sure most people on benefits are aware, when they've stopped throwing tins of spaghetti and white lightning at their plasma telly or whatever Littlejohn thinks goes on)

A whole chicken to chop up, load of veg, pasta, noodles, few tins of chopped toms and the like, do you for ages depending how many are eating, especially if you've got freezer room.

A freezer? A freezer! Luxury!

When ey were a kid...

etc etc

;-)

You won't get many pre-cooked meals in a tiny ice-box fridge freezer.

Being a Cameron Tory, I expect you've got a "chest freezer" in the "summer house" that "The Help" "fetches" the "braces" of "pheasant" from whilst you discuss "the markets" so I wouldn't expect you to understand these things.

;-)

Chest Freezer!?

CHEST FREEZER??????

Typical blooming PB Labour nonsense. Anyone with any class - any understanding of the world at all - would know that a fine fellow with Cameron's heritage would not deign to have something as common as a chest freezer.

Chest freezers are for would-be aristocrats like Miliband or Owen Jones. Pretenders to the throne.

No, people of Cameron's class make the servants to cut ice off the lake each winter, to put in the ice house along with all the game, meat and vegetables that were produced in the autumn. Then the servants are sent out to chip away at the produce when it is required.

An ice-house. No hovel's complete without one.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/john_berghout/7153990127/

TGOHF

Scott_P said:

@krishgm: Grant Shapps, Michael Green, software sales, and the fraud investigation that isn't happening: http://t.co/l9PI6YYnfT #c4news

The dog that didn't bark - lol - what a scoop from Crick - Pulitzer stuff...

TGOHF

MikeSmithson said:

Whatever Crick did an amazing job with the Andrew Mitchell plebgate story and totally turned round the narrative. He's a good journalist.

His biggest hatred is not the Tories but the LDs.

You aren't counting his support of Man Utd against him too ?

JosiasJessop

Shooting at LAX airport. Security personnel injured...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24773025

Sunil_Prasannan

Saw from Ilford town centre, a huge plume of smoke seen drifting east from somewhere near Dagenham.

Pulpstar

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Saw from Ilford town centre, a huge plume of smoke seen drifting east from somewhere near Dagenham.

Seems like an average day to me

CarlottaVance

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Saw from Ilford town centre, a huge plume of smoke seen drifting east from somewhere near Dagenham.

Sky News tweet: London Fire Brigade says 120 firefighters are attending a fire at a scrap metal yard in Dagenham

Morris_Dancer

Mr. B, cheers for that. I had heard the Pirelli threat story but not the Brazil 2014 tyres.

They're right. They need more development data, for safety and to prevent what we saw this season happening. Safety meant changes had to be made, but those changes really played into Red Bull's hands and have made the latter half of the season a procession.

Early discussion of Abu Dhabi is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/abu-dhabi-early-discussion.html

I'll put the pre-qualifying piece up tomorrow.

JosiasJessop

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Saw from Ilford town centre, a huge plume of smoke seen drifting east from somewhere near Dagenham.

Perhaps this scrapyard fire? Perfectly timed for the fire strike ...

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/518947/20131101/london-fire-dagenham-scrap-metal-yard-chequers.htm

Charles

R0berts said:

Charles said:

R0berts said:

Littlejohn's article was of course vile, as always, but hopefully the lass has got some publicity out of it and the rancid under-evolved oaf has for once accidentally done a tiny positive thing for humanity.

Finding money for food can be tough full stop on benefits.

But if you're lucky enough to have 20 or 30 quid spare at one time to do a relatively big shop, you can make it go a very long way. (as I'm sure most people on benefits are aware, when they've stopped throwing tins of spaghetti and white lightning at their plasma telly or whatever Littlejohn thinks goes on)

A whole chicken to chop up, load of veg, pasta, noodles, few tins of chopped toms and the like, do you for ages depending how many are eating, especially if you've got freezer room.

A freezer? A freezer! Luxury!

When ey were a kid...

etc etc

;-)

You won't get many pre-cooked meals in a tiny ice-box fridge freezer.

Being a Cameron Tory, I expect you've got a "chest freezer" in the "summer house" that "The Help" "fetches" the "braces" of "pheasant" from whilst you discuss "the markets" so I wouldn't expect you to understand these things.





;-)

Nope, but I do have a second-hand fridge/freezer in my 2 bedroom flat in inner-city London...

Charles

Anorak said:

R0berts said:

Charles said:

R0berts said:

Littlejohn's article was of course vile, as always, but hopefully the lass has got some publicity out of it and the rancid under-evolved oaf has for once accidentally done a tiny positive thing for humanity.

Finding money for food can be tough full stop on benefits.

But if you're lucky enough to have 20 or 30 quid spare at one time to do a relatively big shop, you can make it go a very long way. (as I'm sure most people on benefits are aware, when they've stopped throwing tins of spaghetti and white lightning at their plasma telly or whatever Littlejohn thinks goes on)

A whole chicken to chop up, load of veg, pasta, noodles, few tins of chopped toms and the like, do you for ages depending how many are eating, especially if you've got freezer room.

A freezer? A freezer! Luxury!

When ey were a kid...

etc etc

;-)

You won't get many pre-cooked meals in a tiny ice-box fridge freezer.

Being a Cameron Tory, I expect you've got a "chest freezer" in the "summer house" that "The Help" "fetches" the "braces" of "pheasant" from whilst you discuss "the markets" so I wouldn't expect you to understand these things.

;-)

Charles only eats pheasant which he has just shot. Any remaining birds are distributed amongst the beater*, loaders* and other estate staff. Freezers are for the hoi-polloi!!

*You know the chap that reloads one gun while you're blasting away with the other. I saw it on Downton Abbey, but have no idea what they are actually called

beater and loader are right... you forgot the driver, the plucker, the cook and the person who makes the tea ;-)

Freggles

taffys said:

I don't like littlejohn but you have to say the left are rubbish at finding examples of the poverty they talk so much about.

If Monroe the best they can do?

They're too busy working long hours, undergoing mental health treatment or generally trying to survive. Not much time left for swanning around news studios

Gerry_Mander

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Saw from Ilford town centre, a huge plume of smoke seen drifting east from somewhere near Dagenham.

It might improve the local area. Can't do much damage.

Charles

JosiasJessop said:

Chest Freezer!?

CHEST FREEZER??????

Typical blooming PB Labour nonsense. Anyone with any class - any understanding of the world at all - would know that a fine fellow with Cameron's heritage would not deign to have something as common as a chest freezer.

Chest freezers are for would-be aristocrats like Miliband or Owen Jones. Pretenders to the throne.

No, people of Cameron's class make the servants to cut ice off the lake each winter, to put in the ice house along with all the game, meat and vegetables that were produced in the autumn. Then the servants are sent out to chip away at the produce when it is required.

An ice-house. No hovel's complete without one.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/john_berghout/7153990127/

Ice-houses are two a penny. You really need a grotto to be posh. Ideally with a resident hermit.

http://www.google.com/imgres?biw=1517&bih=997&tbm=isch&tbnid=2ljIMiLFcU9A4M:&imgrefurl=http://www.bridgemanartondemand.com/image/571995/francis-nicholson-interior-of-the-grotto-stourhead&docid=csE8ArxF1vMldM&imgurl=http://lowres-picturecabinet.com.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/173/main/16/571995.jpg&w=428&h=340&ei=wehzUpi9KYGshQfk_YHIDQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=858&vpy=291&dur=813&hovh=200&hovw=252&tx=160&ty=102&page=1&tbnh=145&tbnw=188&start=0&ndsp=48&ved=1t:429,r:13,s:0,i:122

NickPalmer

Jonny: There were in fact 4 candidates on the ballot paper for the Unite job - can't remember much about the others though. I expect andrea can advise!

Next

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

Chest Freezer!?

CHEST FREEZER??????

Typical blooming PB Labour nonsense. Anyone with any class - any understanding of the world at all - would know that a fine fellow with Cameron's heritage would not deign to have something as common as a chest freezer.

Chest freezers are for would-be aristocrats like Miliband or Owen Jones. Pretenders to the throne.

No, people of Cameron's class make the servants to cut ice off the lake each winter, to put in the ice house along with all the game, meat and vegetables that were produced in the autumn. Then the servants are sent out to chip away at the produce when it is required.

An ice-house. No hovel's complete without one.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/john_berghout/7153990127/

Ice-houses are two a penny. You really need a grotto to be posh. Ideally with a resident hermit.

http://www.google.com/imgres?biw=1517&bih=997&tbm=isch&tbnid=2ljIMiLFcU9A4M:&imgrefurl=http://www.bridgemanartondemand.com/image/571995/francis-nicholson-interior-of-the-grotto-stourhead&docid=csE8ArxF1vMldM&imgurl=http://lowres-picturecabinet.com.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/173/main/16/571995.jpg&w=428&h=340&ei=wehzUpi9KYGshQfk_YHIDQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=858&vpy=291&dur=813&hovh=200&hovw=252&tx=160&ty=102&page=1&tbnh=145&tbnw=188&start=0&ndsp=48&ved=1t:429,r:13,s:0,i:122

It's easy to get an ice house.

You get one when you can't afford your heating bill...

Sunil_Prasannan

Gerry_Mander said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Saw from Ilford town centre, a huge plume of smoke seen drifting east from somewhere near Dagenham.

It might improve the local area. Can't do much damage.

Um, perhaps

Looks like it indeed is a scrapyard fire near Dagenham Dock station
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/518947/20131101/london-fire-dagenham-scrap-metal-yard-chequers.htm

[edit - Josias beat me to the above link!]

david_herdson

On topic, Scotland alone could account for 30+ lost deposits if the 2011 election and other more recent elections are anything to go by. In Dunfermline - a seat where they won on the 2007 notional result and twice won real elections in the last decade in predecessor / UK equivalent seats - they were reduced to under 12%. If that's what's going on in areas of (former) strength, they're not going to be saving deposits in places like Glasgow East.

As for whether Mike's on to a winner overall, I suspect a lot depends on the debates again, namely whether they happen at all, and if so, how Clegg or his successor (but probably Clegg) performs in them, and whether Farage is there. A three-way set will boost Lib Dem scores across the board from where they are now for the same reason as last time. It wouldn't be to anything like the same extent but would save plenty of deposits. If they don't take place, or if Farage is there, acting as the NOTA candidate, it may well be a night for a return to the phrase heard frequently in the 1960s but not so often since: "The Liberal lost his deposit".

Charles

Next said:

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

Chest Freezer!?

CHEST FREEZER??????

Typical blooming PB Labour nonsense. Anyone with any class - any understanding of the world at all - would know that a fine fellow with Cameron's heritage would not deign to have something as common as a chest freezer.

Chest freezers are for would-be aristocrats like Miliband or Owen Jones. Pretenders to the throne.

No, people of Cameron's class make the servants to cut ice off the lake each winter, to put in the ice house along with all the game, meat and vegetables that were produced in the autumn. Then the servants are sent out to chip away at the produce when it is required.

An ice-house. No hovel's complete without one.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/john_berghout/7153990127/

Ice-houses are two a penny. You really need a grotto to be posh. Ideally with a resident hermit.

http://www.google.com/imgres?biw=1517&bih=997&tbm=isch&tbnid=2ljIMiLFcU9A4M:&imgrefurl=http://www.bridgemanartondemand.com/image/571995/francis-nicholson-interior-of-the-grotto-stourhead&docid=csE8ArxF1vMldM&imgurl=http://lowres-picturecabinet.com.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/173/main/16/571995.jpg&w=428&h=340&ei=wehzUpi9KYGshQfk_YHIDQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=858&vpy=291&dur=813&hovh=200&hovw=252&tx=160&ty=102&page=1&tbnh=145&tbnw=188&start=0&ndsp=48&ved=1t:429,r:13,s:0,i:122

It's easy to get an ice house.

You get one when you can't afford your heating bill...

And there was me thinking that it was a nice house, but where you couldn't afford to mend the 'n' on the neon sign out front

JosiasJessop

Next said:

Charles said:

JosiasJessop said:

Chest Freezer!?

CHEST FREEZER??????

Typical blooming PB Labour nonsense. Anyone with any class - any understanding of the world at all - would know that a fine fellow with Cameron's heritage would not deign to have something as common as a chest freezer.

Chest freezers are for would-be aristocrats like Miliband or Owen Jones. Pretenders to the throne.

No, people of Cameron's class make the servants to cut ice off the lake each winter, to put in the ice house along with all the game, meat and vegetables that were produced in the autumn. Then the servants are sent out to chip away at the produce when it is required.

An ice-house. No hovel's complete without one.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/john_berghout/7153990127/

Ice-houses are two a penny. You really need a grotto to be posh. Ideally with a resident hermit.

http://www.google.com/imgres?biw=1517&bih=997&tbm=isch&tbnid=2ljIMiLFcU9A4M:&imgrefurl=http://www.bridgemanartondemand.com/image/571995/francis-nicholson-interior-of-the-grotto-stourhead&docid=csE8ArxF1vMldM&imgurl=http://lowres-picturecabinet.com.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/173/main/16/571995.jpg&w=428&h=340&ei=wehzUpi9KYGshQfk_YHIDQ&zoom=1&iact=hc&vpx=858&vpy=291&dur=813&hovh=200&hovw=252&tx=160&ty=102&page=1&tbnh=145&tbnw=188&start=0&ndsp=48&ved=1t:429,r:13,s:0,i:122

It's easy to get an ice house.

You get one when you can't afford your heating bill...

More lefty claptrap. You'll get food poisoning if you try that. The UK isn't cold enough most winters for that to work, and the winters start too late after harvest. You'd end up with food that's rotten before being frozen, which is then repeatedly frozen and thawed.

Besides, if you're to poor to heat your hovel, you won't be able to afford the beater, loader, driver, plucker, cook, whisky-holder, retriever-dogs and mistresses (*) needed to fill the hovel.

(*) Some good fellows reduce expenditure by combining the retriever-dogs and mistresses roles.

Plato

I see there have been more arrests - I'm gobsmacked by this one.

david_herdson

JonnyJimmy said:

Has Letmebecleariband been clear on anything, ever? Even on his much discussed price-freeze on energy bills, has he been clear on how it would work if gas prices rocketed? And that's hardly an unprecedented event.

JonnyJimmy said:

Has Letmebecleariband been clear on anything, ever? Even on his much discussed price-freeze on energy bills, has he been clear on how it would work if gas prices rocketed? And that's hardly an unprecedented event.

Or indeed if they slumped globally but were frozen in Britain because the energy companies had locked themselves into expensive forward contracts as insurance against a spike. In 2008 (iirc), oil fell by two-thirds in a matter of months. Another major economic shock - and there are plenty of candidates for a trigger in what's still a brittle system - and we could be back there.

AndyJS

Paul Gambaccini has been arrested. This is him talking to Nicky Campbell on Radio Five Live last year:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=DutNY63LqO0

R0berts

Bet there's a few here who have actually been shooting and understand all these terms.

It's way way out of my social grade / circle, but it does look kind of fun. I've seen parties of them out in the country, and they just seem to get lashed from early doors and eat loads, then go to the pub and get lashed and eat loads.

I've done clay pigeons on a stag do, it was slightly scary.

Sunil_Prasannan

Blimey - 1500 tonnes of metal on fire in Dagenham:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-24774749

Charles

Plato said:

I see there have been more arrests - I'm gobsmacked by this one.

The sheer number of people in that line of business who have been implicated in that kind of activity is mind boggling.

Scott_P

JonnyJimmy said:

Has Letmebecleariband been clear on anything, ever?

Allegedly they have U-turned on HS2. Again. Here is their latest plan...

http://www.usmadetoys.com/images/11235.jpg

Carola

'2 dead in drive by shooting oustide Golden Dawn offices in Heraklion, Crete. 2 men on a motor bike rode past fired 8-10 shots.' bendepear

GeoffM

taffys said:

I don't like littlejohn but you have to say the left are rubbish at finding examples of the poverty they talk so much about.
Is Monroe the best they can do?

Freggles said:

They're too busy working long hours, undergoing mental health treatment or generally trying to survive. Not much time left for swanning around news studios

I'm glad that it was you acknowledging that people on the left need mental health treatment rather than, say, me for example saying it out loud. Thanks.

isam

MikeSmithson said:

Whatever Crick did an amazing job with the Andrew Mitchell plebgate story and totally turned round the narrative. He's a good journalist.

His biggest hatred is not the Tories but the LDs.

Haha I thought he hated UKIP!

Maybe he is just a good journalist!

MikeK

BREAKING NEWS:

Just heard that Paul Gambacini arrested under Yew Tree probe. Link BBC

PAUL GAMBACINI!! ONE OF MY HEROS. Is nothing sacred?

AlastairMeeks

Charles said:

Plato said:

I see there have been more arrests - I'm gobsmacked by this one.

The sheer number of people in that line of business who have been implicated in that kind of activity is mind boggling.

As well as motive and means, you have to have opportunity. That line of activity gives considerably more opportunity than most.

When I was younger, all the jokes on that line used to be about choirmasters and scout leaders, presumably for the same reason.

JosiasJessop

Scott_P said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Has Letmebecleariband been clear on anything, ever?

Allegedly they have U-turned on HS2. Again. Here is their latest plan...

http://www.usmadetoys.com/images/11235.jpg

That's terrible - it has a flat crossing. They're hard to operate and maintain, so I'd expect a flyover or flyunder in that case.

I'd sack the builder. It's like he's only had a few years' experience.

Oh, and I'm not sure even the Berne loading gauge could cope with a giraffe.