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I put a cheeky couple of quid on UK nul points. I don't expect it to come in, but it was 80/1.woody662 said:Any Eurovision bets anyone?
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That's been my view for weeks. Buying at 160 is a great opportunity.kle4 said:
Either way, it means Labour won't get wiped out anywhere near as bad as once seemed possible.PaulM said:
"Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway. "NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Whether this will change when the manifestos appear and the Tories start showing some ankle is an interesting question. It appears so far that May really wanted a pretty blank cheque - we might raise taxes, or not; we may chip away the pension lock, or not; we will have Brexit, but who knows on what basis. That was to be delivered by an "eek the alternative is Corbyn" campaign. I think that that is already factored in, though - Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway.
It's also striking that the LibDem campaign is invisible so far. They're in favour of a new referendum, Farron's decided on balance that gay sex is not a sin, and that's all I'm aware of. Less engaged voters probably have hardly noticed them at all so far.
But i wouldn't bet on the spreads on any of this just yet!
Or alternatively a section of the Labour vote finds the idea of Corbyn defending the nation and Diane Abbott in charge of the Police to be frightening, but as long as the polls show this as remote they don't have a decision to make and can stick with supporting Labour.0 -
Whilst not wishing to interfere in this sub-thread, JJ earlier makes a reference to Therac-25 which takes us to deaths here:Omnium said:
These software related deaths that you're alluding to. Care to list them?JosiasJessop said:
Which may well not be guaranteed to work with much of the equipment in the hospital, as the suppliers only tested it on an ancient OS ten years ago. That kit will probably work fine under Windows 10, but they won't guarantee it, and any deaths that occur are your fault for not using the OS they've tested it with ...Omnium said:
Microsoft offered a free upgrade to windows 10 for everyone.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's not free. For EOL operating systems like XP, extended support needs to be paid for. If Wales paid and England stopped paying in 2014, it explains Jeremy Hunt's disappearing act as well as why Wales was not hit. (Actually Microsoft has now made the patch free.)Omnium said:
I suspect the truth of your statement is akin to the truth of the viz article linked earlier. The security upgrade is of course free.SouthamObserver said:
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
Unless you want to give them £x for the latest version, which is guaranteed to work with Windows 10.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Therac-250 -
I doubt that. After all, the Lib Dem opinion poll rating normally increases during an election campaign.Barnesian said:
I suspect the LD swing is to Labour not Tory, and it is the tactical vote effect as the question who will you vote for ? becomes more real and specific.Chris said:Rather scary for the Lib Dems that the national polls are now showing swings away from them to both the Tories and Labour.
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I'm fairly certain that I'm wrong about this.JosiasJessop said:
I'm fairly certain you're wrong about that. As a slightly silly example, MS cannot test the connection to the hospital's Therac-25 (*) machine, which is connected to the PC via an ancient serial bus. Or the slightly odd way the network's configured because a slightly obscure machine designed in the Windows XP - era requires string and beeswax to operate.Omnium said:Automatic upgrades are mostly done automatically. Some firms spend a fortune on people that actually hold back the upgrades from Microsoft etc so that their IT guys can 'test' them. In almost all cases this is just stupid. There is basically zero cost in letting Microsoft do this for you. They're good at it, and if you're fully up to date then you can have a bit of a gripe at them. Running versions of Internet Explorer that are around 6 versions behind the current one (as my company did) isn't wise.
Unless your business is operating systems and the like there's not a chance in hell that your support guys are even 10% as good as the people at Microsoft. There's a good chance that you can buy in some help that is nearly to that standard - install some sort of anti-virus thing, but even better tell your staff to stop clicking on links.
It isn't just the specialist software that's being run on the PC (though that can be difficult enough): it's the peripherals that are connected to the PCs. When I was working in the tech industry, we'd see all sorts of problems caused by OS updates, from GPIB cards suddenly breaking (stopping all testing) to design data suddenly being inaccessible (stopping all design work).
This probably isn't the case for a GP surgery, and in many cases there is probably an over-abundance of caution. However for large organisations, or those using uncommon equipment, or where failures could cost vast sums of money or even lives, testing is vital.
(*) Extra points for people who realise the relevance of this.
So, yes, you are right. Better still what you say is informative. (long delay to replying and longer delay still to understanding - thanks Mssr JJ)
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Eurovision... must have Eurovision...0
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All this "costing" nonsense...surbiton said:
One of the strengths of the Labour Party in this campaign is that nobody expects Labour to win. Therefore, all these "costing" nonsense which Labour has to answer and the Tories don't will not make much of an impact this time.Omnium said:
Dr P - have you made up your mind? You've often expressed support for Corbyn, but (and I find this contradictory) you've also often said wise things. I'm sure you know without doubt that were Mr Corbyn to be elected we'd immediately be in a financial crisis. That crisis in itself will disable his plans. His plans though are so raddled that even if the markets greeted him with joy they'd be unworkable. You have to know this - you're far too clever not to. Care to comment?NickPalmer said:By the way, do we have "made up my mind" figures broken down by party?
Many Labour voters who do not like Corbyn particularly, will still vote Labour to stop the landslide.
Yes. This geeky detail about whether we have or haven;t got a spare £250 billion.
As in 'I was planning to retire next month and buy a yacht, but my wife is obsessed with "costing" nonsense about mortgages and food.'0 -
The Labour spread is now a serious money making opportunity.PaulM said:
That's been my view for weeks. Buying at 160 is a great opportunity.kle4 said:
Either way, it means Labour won't get wiped out anywhere near as bad as once seemed possible.PaulM said:
"Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway. "NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Whether this will change when the manifestos appear and the Tories start showing some ankle is an interesting question. It appears so far that May really wanted a pretty blank cheque - we might raise taxes, or not; we may chip away the pension lock, or not; we will have Brexit, but who knows on what basis. That was to be delivered by an "eek the alternative is Corbyn" campaign. I think that that is already factored in, though - Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway.
It's also striking that the LibDem campaign is invisible so far. They're in favour of a new referendum, Farron's decided on balance that gay sex is not a sin, and that's all I'm aware of. Less engaged voters probably have hardly noticed them at all so far.
But i wouldn't bet on the spreads on any of this just yet!
Or alternatively a section of the Labour vote finds the idea of Corbyn defending the nation and Diane Abbott in charge of the Police to be frightening, but as long as the polls show this as remote they don't have a decision to make and can stick with supporting Labour.0 -
I said on here three weeks ago that Theresa May should pledge it by GE2022.GeoffM said:
If they commit an extra £350m to the NHS it'd be an act of political genius - especially as it'll happen over time anyway. Although it'd financial folly without root and branch restructuring at the same time.HaroldO said:
The ransomware attack affected more than just hospitals which ameliorated the impact of any attack on the government.FrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
But the Tories need a solid manifesto, they need more funding for schools and hospitals at least.
Also, I'd almost certainly choke to death on a glass of (decent) whisky if that happened, so win-win. You'll miss me when I'm gone.0 -
Probably 30.8%Fysics_Teacher said:Re polls: what GB percentage (as quoted in the polls) corresponds to a UK percentage of 30?
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That figures.Sean_F said:
Labour's Welsh vote was flattered by fielding more candidates than the other parties.YBarddCwsc said:surbiton said:
In that case, shouldn't the pollsters also have asked about Independents if they are so numerous ?YBarddCwsc said:
Whoa .... In Welsh Local elections, the Independents are usually Tories. To get the Tory vote, a simple thing to do is to take 80 per cent of the Independent vote and put it in the Tory column.nunu said:
The yougov ,_2017surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
This gives Labour 472 councillors, and the Tories on 184 + 0.8 * 322 = 441 councillors.
I.e. Labour slightly ahead in the Locals, which is what the polling predicted for the Locals (from memory, Labour 28 per cent, Tories 26 per cent).
So, it looks to me as though the Tory tide will stop at Bridgend. The Tories won’t take the Newport seats.
Considering the allegations of bullying and infighting in Cardiff Labour, I am surprised they didn’t lose control of the Council. It was a very good result for Labour. I see now though they have deposed the old leader Phil Bale and have installed Huw ‘Tippex’ Thomas as the new leader.
“Tippex” Thomas was the Labour student who wanted the Welsh to spatter English cars with Tippex. He was one of the participants in the incredibly dirty Ceredigion election in 2015.
It's very difficult to attribute votes for Independents to other parties. My guess is that in places like Bridgend, Pembroke, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan , many Independents are Conservatives, whereas in the Valleys they're Labour supporters who've fallen out with the local party.
I think that also what helps is that Labour locally still has quite a strong Welsh identity.0 -
Go on, I'm going to bite. What precisely is a money-making opportunity there?surbiton said:
The Labour spread is now a serious money making opportunity.PaulM said:
That's been my view for weeks. Buying at 160 is a great opportunity.kle4 said:
Either way, it means Labour won't get wiped out anywhere near as bad as once seemed possible.PaulM said:
"Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway. "NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Whether this will change when the manifestos appear and the Tories start showing some ankle is an interesting question. It appears so far that May really wanted a pretty blank cheque - we might raise taxes, or not; we may chip away the pension lock, or not; we will have Brexit, but who knows on what basis. That was to be delivered by an "eek the alternative is Corbyn" campaign. I think that that is already factored in, though - Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway.
It's also striking that the LibDem campaign is invisible so far. They're in favour of a new referendum, Farron's decided on balance that gay sex is not a sin, and that's all I'm aware of. Less engaged voters probably have hardly noticed them at all so far.
But i wouldn't bet on the spreads on any of this just yet!
Or alternatively a section of the Labour vote finds the idea of Corbyn defending the nation and Diane Abbott in charge of the Police to be frightening, but as long as the polls show this as remote they don't have a decision to make and can stick with supporting Labour.0 -
The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.0 -
One of the most satisfying things about this campaign is watching the Zoomers splutter as they try to comprehend and respond to the Tory surge in Scotland.TheScreamingEagles said:
SNP member backs SNP candidate.Theuniondivvie said:This guy is no John 'speaks his mind' Buchan, but I'm sure Angus will appreciate his support.
'Moray Brexit leader backs Robertson in general election
The man who led Moray to the brink of a Brexit vote has backed the SNP’s Angus Robertson in the general election. Last year, Paul Briggs and Mr Robertson clashed bitterly over the UK’s place in Europe.
Despite being an SNP member, Mr Briggs encouraged people to vote against the wishes of the party. And in June, 49.9% of voters in Moray said they wanted out of the European Union.
The Remain camp triumphed by only 122 votes. Mr Briggs still supports Brexit, but says he has grown disillusioned with Prime Minister Theresa May’s “hard” approach.'
https://tinyurl.com/lwnoba6
Colour me shocked.0 -
Oh yes ! Tory Party pledges to eliminate the deficit by 2015. What happened ?Fat_Steve said:
All this "costing" nonsense...surbiton said:
One of the strengths of the Labour Party in this campaign is that nobody expects Labour to win. Therefore, all these "costing" nonsense which Labour has to answer and the Tories don't will not make much of an impact this time.Omnium said:
Dr P - have you made up your mind? You've often expressed support for Corbyn, but (and I find this contradictory) you've also often said wise things. I'm sure you know without doubt that were Mr Corbyn to be elected we'd immediately be in a financial crisis. That crisis in itself will disable his plans. His plans though are so raddled that even if the markets greeted him with joy they'd be unworkable. You have to know this - you're far too clever not to. Care to comment?NickPalmer said:By the way, do we have "made up my mind" figures broken down by party?
Many Labour voters who do not like Corbyn particularly, will still vote Labour to stop the landslide.
Yes. This geeky detail about whether we have or haven;t got a spare £250 billion.
As in 'I was planning to retire next month and buy a yacht, but my wife is obsessed with "costing" nonsense about mortgages and food.'
The Tories borrowed £100bn more than it had planned ! Nothing happened. The world did not collapse.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/gb/gb2015/ch1_gb2015.pdf#page=14
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I'm not playing on the spreads on either the Tories or Labour at current prices.Pulpstar said:
Is there a day you haven't either laid or sold the Tories yet ?peter_from_putney said:Based on the coloured bar chart at the top of this thread, the Baxterised numbers are as follows:
Con .......... 381
Labour ..... 188
LibDem ....... 5
UKIP ........... 0
Green ......... 0
Is now the time to SELL the Tories with Spreadex at 397 seats, or to BUY Labour with Sporting or Spreadex at 162 seats? As the chap on Big Brother is apt to say ..... You decide!
(I placed my spread bets yesterday)
The only thing I'm confident about is selling the Lib Dems.0 -
Ah, Israel! Non-EU member
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If we are to believe Comres then Labour is well down on 2015 in every region, including East Mids btw, except the South East (+6) and South West (+7).NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.0 -
And not in Europe!Sunil_Prasannan said:Ah, Israel! Non-EU member
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The spread is 154 - 160. Labour will win far more than 160.Omnium said:
Go on, I'm going to bite. What precisely is a money-making opportunity there?surbiton said:
The Labour spread is now a serious money making opportunity.PaulM said:
That's been my view for weeks. Buying at 160 is a great opportunity.kle4 said:
Either way, it means Labour won't get wiped out anywhere near as bad as once seemed possible.PaulM said:
"Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway. "NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Whether this will change when the manifestos appear and the Tories start showing some ankle is an interesting question. It appears so far that May really wanted a pretty blank cheque - we might raise taxes, or not; we may chip away the pension lock, or not; we will have Brexit, but who knows on what basis. That was to be delivered by an "eek the alternative is Corbyn" campaign. I think that that is already factored in, though - Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway.
It's also striking that the LibDem campaign is invisible so far. They're in favour of a new referendum, Farron's decided on balance that gay sex is not a sin, and that's all I'm aware of. Less engaged voters probably have hardly noticed them at all so far.
But i wouldn't bet on the spreads on any of this just yet!
Or alternatively a section of the Labour vote finds the idea of Corbyn defending the nation and Diane Abbott in charge of the Police to be frightening, but as long as the polls show this as remote they don't have a decision to make and can stick with supporting Labour.0 -
Barnesian said:
The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
Strangely enough round here Labour voters are sullen and reluctant to talk politics and the Labour vote collapsed at the County Council elections in May.. I suspect a lot will not vote.. Mention Corbyn to them and they change the subject..surbiton said:
One of the strengths of the Labour Party in this campaign is that nobody expects Labour to win. Therefore, all these "costing" nonsense which Labour has to answer and the Tories don't will not make much of an impact this time.Omnium said:
Dr P - have you made up your mind? You've often expressed support for Corbyn, but (and I find this contradictory) you've also often said wise things. I'm sure you know without doubt that were Mr Corbyn to be elected we'd immediately be in a financial crisis. That crisis in itself will disable his plans. His plans though are so raddled that even if the markets greeted him with joy they'd be unworkable. You have to know this - you're far too clever not to. Care to comment?NickPalmer said:By the way, do we have "made up my mind" figures broken down by party?
Many Labour voters who do not like Corbyn particularly, will still vote Labour to stop the landslide.
But wdik.0 -
Again subsets ! When will you learn ?brokenwheel said:
If we are to believe Comres then Labour is well down on 2015 in every region except the South East (+6) and South West (+7).NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.0 -
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.0 -
UEFA and the European Broadcasting Union have both expanded the concept of Europe.SandyRentool said:
And not in Europe!Sunil_Prasannan said:Ah, Israel! Non-EU member
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Good leak.0
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...but if they can let Australia in....SandyRentool said:
And not in Europe!Sunil_Prasannan said:Ah, Israel! Non-EU member
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I disagree . Even 32% would be a heavy defeat on these poll figures. The mere fact that Corbyn bowed meekly to May's wish to call the election would justify ousting him. By doing so he betrayed the interests of the party he claims to lead.HYUFD said:
On Comres at least the Tories would get a majority of just over 100 but Labour 30% which would be enough for Corbyn to probably be re elected Labour leader by the membership, Blairites worst nightmarechestnut said:
Isn't Corbyn surviving Labour's worst possible scenario according to many soft-leftists/'centrists'?Sean_F said:
It depends what you mean by disastrous. I expect this year to be 1997 in reverse.kle4 said:
No, but it encourages all their support to firm up, and save seats that might otherwise be lost, and so prevents the worst possible scenarios.Sean_F said:
Being behind by 14-18% is not something to celebrate.kle4 said:It's up up up for Labour. Tories reached their ceiling (48-50), Labour reached their floor (26-30)
Getting a bad result rather than a disastrous one is not a win for Labour, but it is better. At the moment the Tories are lazy, assuming that because Corbyn has poor ratings they need say nothing (we keep hearing they are holding back - until when? And why?), and while his allies have messed up Corbyn so far has not, meaning the 'let him tie his own rope' strategy has been ineffective, even if it has not led to a shift that would change the outcome from anything other than a Tory win.0 -
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.0 -
Belarus... non-EU member 0
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When you say 'far more' how many do you think?surbiton said:
The spread is 154 - 160. Labour will win far more than 160.Omnium said:
Go on, I'm going to bite. What precisely is a money-making opportunity there?surbiton said:
The Labour spread is now a serious money making opportunity.PaulM said:
That's been my view for weeks. Buying at 160 is a great opportunity.kle4 said:
Either way, it means Labour won't get wiped out anywhere near as bad as once seemed possible.PaulM said:
"Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway. "NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Whether this will change when the manifestos appear and the Tories start showing some ankle is an interesting question. It appears so far that May really wanted a pretty blank cheque - we might raise taxes, or not; we may chip away the pension lock, or not; we will have Brexit, but who knows on what basis. That was to be delivered by an "eek the alternative is Corbyn" campaign. I think that that is already factored in, though - Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway.
It's also striking that the LibDem campaign is invisible so far. They're in favour of a new referendum, Farron's decided on balance that gay sex is not a sin, and that's all I'm aware of. Less engaged voters probably have hardly noticed them at all so far.
But i wouldn't bet on the spreads on any of this just yet!
Or alternatively a section of the Labour vote finds the idea of Corbyn defending the nation and Diane Abbott in charge of the Police to be frightening, but as long as the polls show this as remote they don't have a decision to make and can stick with supporting Labour.0 -
Yes, absolutely. The man is in politics but is not a politician. Also surrounded by idiots.justin124 said:
I disagree . Even 32% would be a heavy defeat on these poll figures. The mere fact that Corbyn bowed meekly to May's wish to call the election would justify ousting him. By doing so he betrayed the interests of the party he claims to lead.HYUFD said:
On Comres at least the Tories would get a majority of just over 100 but Labour 30% which would be enough for Corbyn to probably be re elected Labour leader by the membership, Blairites worst nightmarechestnut said:
Isn't Corbyn surviving Labour's worst possible scenario according to many soft-leftists/'centrists'?Sean_F said:
It depends what you mean by disastrous. I expect this year to be 1997 in reverse.kle4 said:
No, but it encourages all their support to firm up, and save seats that might otherwise be lost, and so prevents the worst possible scenarios.Sean_F said:
Being behind by 14-18% is not something to celebrate.kle4 said:It's up up up for Labour. Tories reached their ceiling (48-50), Labour reached their floor (26-30)
Getting a bad result rather than a disastrous one is not a win for Labour, but it is better. At the moment the Tories are lazy, assuming that because Corbyn has poor ratings they need say nothing (we keep hearing they are holding back - until when? And why?), and while his allies have messed up Corbyn so far has not, meaning the 'let him tie his own rope' strategy has been ineffective, even if it has not led to a shift that would change the outcome from anything other than a Tory win.0 -
No, the Tories had a terrible night in the locals.surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.0 -
Just put up "I'm voting Labour" poster...0
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and your downside is negligible. Corbyn could announce a plan to disband the armed forces and you still wouldn't be that badly exposed at 160.surbiton said:
The spread is 154 - 160. Labour will win far more than 160.Omnium said:
Go on, I'm going to bite. What precisely is a money-making opportunity there?surbiton said:
The Labour spread is now a serious money making opportunity.PaulM said:
That's been my view for weeks. Buying at 160 is a great opportunity.kle4 said:
Either way, it means Labour won't get wiped out anywhere near as bad as once seemed possible.PaulM said:
"Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway. "NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Whether this will change when the manifestos appear and the Tories start showing some ankle is an interesting question. It appears so far that May really wanted a pretty blank cheque - we might raise taxes, or not; we may chip away the pension lock, or not; we will have Brexit, but who knows on what basis. That was to be delivered by an "eek the alternative is Corbyn" campaign. I think that that is already factored in, though - Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway.
It's also striking that the LibDem campaign is invisible so far. They're in favour of a new referendum, Farron's decided on balance that gay sex is not a sin, and that's all I'm aware of. Less engaged voters probably have hardly noticed them at all so far.
But i wouldn't bet on the spreads on any of this just yet!
Or alternatively a section of the Labour vote finds the idea of Corbyn defending the nation and Diane Abbott in charge of the Police to be frightening, but as long as the polls show this as remote they don't have a decision to make and can stick with supporting Labour.
I think Baxter is driving the spreads market and it is giving way to much credence to the idea that Brexit Labour voters accross the board will vote Tory. He has the Tories at 40% of the vote in seats like Makerfield. Never ever been close to that and won't be this time.0 -
Labour will win 180 - 200.Omnium said:
When you say 'far more' how many do you think?surbiton said:
The spread is 154 - 160. Labour will win far more than 160.Omnium said:
Go on, I'm going to bite. What precisely is a money-making opportunity there?surbiton said:
The Labour spread is now a serious money making opportunity.PaulM said:
That's been my view for weeks. Buying at 160 is a great opportunity.kle4 said:
Either way, it means Labour won't get wiped out anywhere near as bad as once seemed possible.PaulM said:
"Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway. "NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Whether this will change when the manifestos appear and the Tories start showing some ankle is an interesting question. It appears so far that May really wanted a pretty blank cheque - we might raise taxes, or not; we may chip away the pension lock, or not; we will have Brexit, but who knows on what basis. That was to be delivered by an "eek the alternative is Corbyn" campaign. I think that that is already factored in, though - Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway.
It's also striking that the LibDem campaign is invisible so far. They're in favour of a new referendum, Farron's decided on balance that gay sex is not a sin, and that's all I'm aware of. Less engaged voters probably have hardly noticed them at all so far.
But i wouldn't bet on the spreads on any of this just yet!
Or alternatively a section of the Labour vote finds the idea of Corbyn defending the nation and Diane Abbott in charge of the Police to be frightening, but as long as the polls show this as remote they don't have a decision to make and can stick with supporting Labour.0 -
Plaid only had 1% to start with! More likely is that some UKIP voters are going back to Labour.chestnut said:
My theory is:kle4 said:
It's one possible scenario.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is that not pilling up votes in areas they are already well aheadFrancisUrquhart said:
The uptick has to be students...has to be. Labour aren't even ahead with public sector workers or the working class.Razedabode said:#ComRes
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.
a - Polls are just wrong - there is some reason for believing this might be the case, given anecdata and Labour struggles in many areas in locals and mayoralties
b - Piling up votes in safe seats, losing elsewhere - Similar to a), but would mean polls could be right even as Labour's struggles are genuine and would be repeated at a GE
c - There is a surge for Labour and Corbyn for some reason (fear of a big Tory majority, nonvoters saying they will vote Labour, popular policies overcoming doubts over Corbyn, sclerotic LD vote).
a) They are picking up around 1% of the electorate from the Lib Dems;
b) They are picking up around 2% of the electorate from the Greens;
c) They are picking up around 1% of the electorate from Plaid;
d) They are picking up DNVs who will not actually vote when it comes to it;
e) These votes are in overwhelmingly safe seats - Labour Urbans/Tory suburbans
I don't think there is any significant swing to the Tories in SE/SW or East.0 -
The NHS did have extended support but apparently Hunt did not renew it.surbiton said:
Since, most NHS computers apparently are XP, did the government take a decision not to go for extended support ? Even my company is covered.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's not free. For EOL operating systems like XP, extended support needs to be paid for. If Wales paid and England stopped paying in 2014, it explains Jeremy Hunt's disappearing act as well as why Wales was not hit. (Actually Microsoft has now made the patch free.)Omnium said:
I suspect the truth of your statement is akin to the truth of the viz article linked earlier. The security upgrade is of course free.SouthamObserver said:
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/26/uk-government-pcs-open-to-hackers-as-paid-windows-xp-support-ends
Presumably when Jeremy Hunt does emerge from purdah, we will know more.0 -
Triple lock !justin124 said:
Plaid only had 1% to start with! More likely is that some UKIP voters are going back to Labour.chestnut said:
My theory is:kle4 said:
It's one possible scenario.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is that not pilling up votes in areas they are already well aheadFrancisUrquhart said:
The uptick has to be students...has to be. Labour aren't even ahead with public sector workers or the working class.Razedabode said:#ComRes
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.
a - Polls are just wrong - there is some reason for believing this might be the case, given anecdata and Labour struggles in many areas in locals and mayoralties
b - Piling up votes in safe seats, losing elsewhere - Similar to a), but would mean polls could be right even as Labour's struggles are genuine and would be repeated at a GE
c - There is a surge for Labour and Corbyn for some reason (fear of a big Tory majority, nonvoters saying they will vote Labour, popular policies overcoming doubts over Corbyn, sclerotic LD vote).
a) They are picking up around 1% of the electorate from the Lib Dems;
b) They are picking up around 2% of the electorate from the Greens;
c) They are picking up around 1% of the electorate from Plaid;
d) They are picking up DNVs who will not actually vote when it comes to it;
e) These votes are in overwhelmingly safe seats - Labour Urbans/Tory suburbans
I don't think there is any significant swing to the Tories in SE/SW or East.0 -
A gain of 550 seats. Victories in the West Midlands and Teesside.surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.0 -
Holy shit ! This article is from May 2015. And he and the government was warned.DecrepitJohnL said:
The NHS did have extended support but apparently Hunt did not renew it.surbiton said:
Since, most NHS computers apparently are XP, did the government take a decision not to go for extended support ? Even my company is covered.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's not free. For EOL operating systems like XP, extended support needs to be paid for. If Wales paid and England stopped paying in 2014, it explains Jeremy Hunt's disappearing act as well as why Wales was not hit. (Actually Microsoft has now made the patch free.)Omnium said:
I suspect the truth of your statement is akin to the truth of the viz article linked earlier. The security upgrade is of course free.SouthamObserver said:
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/26/uk-government-pcs-open-to-hackers-as-paid-windows-xp-support-ends
Presumably when Jeremy Hunt does emerge from purdah, we will know more.0 -
Australia! Non-EU memb... oh, sorry- Austria!!!
0 -
And how much have you bet per seat? (Percentage of monthly income say)surbiton said:
Labour will win 180 - 200.Omnium said:
When you say 'far more' how many do you think?surbiton said:
The spread is 154 - 160. Labour will win far more than 160.Omnium said:
Go on, I'm going to bite. What precisely is a money-making opportunity there?surbiton said:
The Labour spread is now a serious money making opportunity.PaulM said:
That's been my view for weeks. Buying at 160 is a great opportunity.kle4 said:
Either way, it means Labour won't get wiped out anywhere near as bad as once seemed possible.PaulM said:
"Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway. "NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Whether this will change when the manifestos appear and the Tories start showing some ankle is an interesting question. It appears so far that May really wanted a pretty blank cheque - we might raise taxes, or not; we may chip away the pension lock, or not; we will have Brexit, but who knows on what basis. That was to be delivered by an "eek the alternative is Corbyn" campaign. I think that that is already factored in, though - Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway.
It's also striking that the LibDem campaign is invisible so far. They're in favour of a new referendum, Farron's decided on balance that gay sex is not a sin, and that's all I'm aware of. Less engaged voters probably have hardly noticed them at all so far.
But i wouldn't bet on the spreads on any of this just yet!
Or alternatively a section of the Labour vote finds the idea of Corbyn defending the nation and Diane Abbott in charge of the Police to be frightening, but as long as the polls show this as remote they don't have a decision to make and can stick with supporting Labour.0 -
It was smart to court the grey vote. If only a little can be brought back, it's very helpful.surbiton said:
Triple lock !justin124 said:
Plaid only had 1% to start with! More likely is that some UKIP voters are going back to Labour.chestnut said:
My theory is:kle4 said:
It's one possible scenario.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is that not pilling up votes in areas they are already well aheadFrancisUrquhart said:
The uptick has to be students...has to be. Labour aren't even ahead with public sector workers or the working class.Razedabode said:#ComRes
Most likely to keep Britain safe from terrorism
May 47%
Corbyn 14%
#Comres
Best to lead Britain’s negotiations over Brexit
May 50%
Corbyn 15%
And Labour are at 32%. Right.
a - Polls are just wrong - there is some reason for believing this might be the case, given anecdata and Labour struggles in many areas in locals and mayoralties
b - Piling up votes in safe seats, losing elsewhere - Similar to a), but would mean polls could be right even as Labour's struggles are genuine and would be repeated at a GE
c - There is a surge for Labour and Corbyn for some reason (fear of a big Tory majority, nonvoters saying they will vote Labour, popular policies overcoming doubts over Corbyn, sclerotic LD vote).
a) They are picking up around 1% of the electorate from the Lib Dems;
b) They are picking up around 2% of the electorate from the Greens;
c) They are picking up around 1% of the electorate from Plaid;
d) They are picking up DNVs who will not actually vote when it comes to it;
e) These votes are in overwhelmingly safe seats - Labour Urbans/Tory suburbans
I don't think there is any significant swing to the Tories in SE/SW or East.0 -
An arse-hole won by a few hundred votes in Teesside on a 29% turnout.Sean_F said:
A gain of 550 seats. Victories in the West Midlands and Teesside.surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.0 -
And the Bank of England created about £450 billion using the magic money tree known as quantitative easing to buy bonds (including £60 billion of Government Bonds since last August to help cover the deficit).surbiton said:
Oh yes ! Tory Party pledges to eliminate the deficit by 2015. What happened ?Fat_Steve said:
All this "costing" nonsense...surbiton said:
One of the strengths of the Labour Party in this campaign is that nobody expects Labour to win. Therefore, all these "costing" nonsense which Labour has to answer and the Tories don't will not make much of an impact this time.Omnium said:
Dr P - have you made up your mind? You've often expressed support for Corbyn, but (and I find this contradictory) you've also often said wise things. I'm sure you know without doubt that were Mr Corbyn to be elected we'd immediately be in a financial crisis. That crisis in itself will disable his plans. His plans though are so raddled that even if the markets greeted him with joy they'd be unworkable. You have to know this - you're far too clever not to. Care to comment?NickPalmer said:By the way, do we have "made up my mind" figures broken down by party?
Many Labour voters who do not like Corbyn particularly, will still vote Labour to stop the landslide.
Yes. This geeky detail about whether we have or haven;t got a spare £250 billion.
As in 'I was planning to retire next month and buy a yacht, but my wife is obsessed with "costing" nonsense about mortgages and food.'
The Tories borrowed £100bn more than it had planned ! Nothing happened. The world did not collapse.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/gb/gb2015/ch1_gb2015.pdf#page=14
All this costing nonsense ...
Money is created by banks. Value is created by people working productively.
There are too many accountant politicians who know the price of everything and the value of nothing. It is an irritating political disease.0 -
If Jezza does better than Ed Miliband in terms of vote share and keeps the Con majority under 100 he'll have a good argument to stay on as Lab leader!
0 -
Armenia - non-EU member!0
-
Can we call it XPgate?surbiton said:
Holy shit ! This article is from May 2015. And he and the government was warned.DecrepitJohnL said:
The NHS did have extended support but apparently Hunt did not renew it.surbiton said:
Since, most NHS computers apparently are XP, did the government take a decision not to go for extended support ? Even my company is covered.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's not free. For EOL operating systems like XP, extended support needs to be paid for. If Wales paid and England stopped paying in 2014, it explains Jeremy Hunt's disappearing act as well as why Wales was not hit. (Actually Microsoft has now made the patch free.)Omnium said:
I suspect the truth of your statement is akin to the truth of the viz article linked earlier. The security upgrade is of course free.SouthamObserver said:
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/26/uk-government-pcs-open-to-hackers-as-paid-windows-xp-support-ends
Presumably when Jeremy Hunt does emerge from purdah, we will know more.0 -
Have they actually done something bad, or is this just smearing because you don't like the result?surbiton said:
An arse-hole won by a few hundred votes in Teesside on a 29% turnout.Sean_F said:
A gain of 550 seats. Victories in the West Midlands and Teesside.surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.0 -
You may be correct that 80% of Independent councillors in Wales are Tories in private - though I would guess it is more like two thirds - but those who vote for them will have a wide range of persuasions.It is very likely that whilst 70% of Independents are Tories fewer than 50% of those supporting them would be Tory voters.YBarddCwsc said:
But, how could the pollsters do that? Independent means different things in different wards. In my ward in Wales, the Independent was an Extreme Welsh Nationalist, more nationalist than Plaid Cymru.surbiton said:
In that case, shouldn't the pollsters also have asked about Independents if they are so numerous ?YBarddCwsc said:
).nunu said:
The yougov welsh local elections poll way underestimated labour (28%) theyactually got 35% and way overestimated tories (26%) they actually got 13%, so half of what yougov were predicting.surbiton said:
Even this one is at variance with the local election polls.valleyboy said:
Tories still ahead, 41-35 but Labour picked up 4pts on last time.surbiton said:
Tories leading by 75 points ?bigjohnowls said:Anyone seen the latest poll in Wales?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_local_elections,_2017
As a rough rule of thumb, 80 percent of the Welsh Independents are Tories. The local election results in Wales were consistent with the polls for the local elections, once this is taken into account.
To be honest, the results were not too disastrous for Labour in Wales. I think Wrexham, Clwyd South, Alyn & Deeside, Delyn and Bridgend are already lost.
The next batch of vulnerable seats are the Newport and Cardiff ones.
Labour did well in the cities in Wales -- Newport, Cardiff, Swansea & Llanelli. Labour lost seats outside the cities.
So, it looks to me as though the Tory tide will stop at Bridgend. The Tories won’t take the Newport seats.
Considering the allegations of bullying and infighting in Cardiff Labour, I am surprised they didn’t lose control of the Council. It was a very good result for Labour. I see now though they have deposed the old leader Phil Bale and have installed Huw ‘Tippex’ Thomas as the new leader.
“Tippex” Thomas was the Labour student who wanted the Welsh to spatter English cars with Tippex. He was one of the participants in the incredibly dirty Ceredigion election in 2015.0 -
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.0 -
Good. I hope TMay thinks the same.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.0 -
Baxter is computing absolute nonsense. Predicting Tories will win 413 seats. I hope the bettors are not plumping for that !PaulM said:
and your downside is negligible. Corbyn could announce a plan to disband the armed forces and you still wouldn't be that badly exposed at 160.surbiton said:
The spread is 154 - 160. Labour will win far more than 160.Omnium said:
Go on, I'm going to bite. What precisely is a money-making opportunity there?surbiton said:
The Labour spread is now a serious money making opportunity.PaulM said:
That's been my view for weeks. Buying at 160 is a great opportunity.kle4 said:
Either way, it means Labour won't get wiped out anywhere near as bad as once seemed possible.PaulM said:
"Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway. "NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
Whether this will change when the manifestos appear and the Tories start showing some ankle is an interesting question. It appears so far that May really wanted a pretty blank cheque - we might raise taxes, or not; we may chip away the pension lock, or not; we will have Brexit, but who knows on what basis. That was to be delivered by an "eek the alternative is Corbyn" campaign. I think that that is already factored in, though - Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway.
It's also striking that the LibDem campaign is invisible so far. They're in favour of a new referendum, Farron's decided on balance that gay sex is not a sin, and that's all I'm aware of. Less engaged voters probably have hardly noticed them at all so far.
But i wouldn't bet on the spreads on any of this just yet!
Or alternatively a section of the Labour vote finds the idea of Corbyn defending the nation and Diane Abbott in charge of the Police to be frightening, but as long as the polls show this as remote they don't have a decision to make and can stick with supporting Labour.
I think Baxter is driving the spreads market and it is giving way to much credence to the idea that Brexit Labour voters accross the board will vote Tory. He has the Tories at 40% of the vote in seats like Makerfield. Never ever been close to that and won't be this time.0 -
I grew up in Pembrokeshire and am aware of many non-Tory Independents. Quite a few were Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
I think that is correct. 80 per cent is a rough rule.Sean_F said:
Labour's Welsh vote was flattered by fielding more candidates than the other parties.
It's very difficult to attribute votes for Independents to other parties. My guess is that in places like Bridgend, Pembroke, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan , many Independents are Conservatives, whereas in the Valleys they're Labour supporters who've fallen out with the local party.
Labour did well in the cities -- they even gained seats in Swansea and Llanelli, and the losses in Cardiff were less than they should have been. Plaid Cymru did well in the rural areas.
I think this points to 6 Lab losses: Ynys Mon -> PC or Tory, and the 4 Welsh NE seats & Bridgend -> Tories.
I think Ceredigion is TCTC, and my bet for a surprise result would be the Rhondda where Chris Bryant has lost votes in every election.0 -
We need to be a bit careful but it certainly looks that way, and presumably the Sundays will have more details.surbiton said:
Holy shit ! This article is from May 2015. And he and the government was warned.DecrepitJohnL said:
The NHS did have extended support but apparently Hunt did not renew it.surbiton said:
Since, most NHS computers apparently are XP, did the government take a decision not to go for extended support ? Even my company is covered.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's not free. For EOL operating systems like XP, extended support needs to be paid for. If Wales paid and England stopped paying in 2014, it explains Jeremy Hunt's disappearing act as well as why Wales was not hit. (Actually Microsoft has now made the patch free.)Omnium said:
I suspect the truth of your statement is akin to the truth of the viz article linked earlier. The security upgrade is of course free.SouthamObserver said:
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/26/uk-government-pcs-open-to-hackers-as-paid-windows-xp-support-ends
Presumably when Jeremy Hunt does emerge from purdah, we will know more.0 -
That's not what the PNV suggests.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.0 -
No, we can't.SandyRentool said:
Can we call it XPgate?surbiton said:
Holy shit ! This article is from May 2015. And he and the government was warned.DecrepitJohnL said:
The NHS did have extended support but apparently Hunt did not renew it.surbiton said:
Since, most NHS computers apparently are XP, did the government take a decision not to go for extended support ? Even my company is covered.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's not free. For EOL operating systems like XP, extended support needs to be paid for. If Wales paid and England stopped paying in 2014, it explains Jeremy Hunt's disappearing act as well as why Wales was not hit. (Actually Microsoft has now made the patch free.)Omnium said:
I suspect the truth of your statement is akin to the truth of the viz article linked earlier. The security upgrade is of course free.SouthamObserver said:
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/26/uk-government-pcs-open-to-hackers-as-paid-windows-xp-support-ends
Presumably when Jeremy Hunt does emerge from purdah, we will know more. 0 -
Thanks, Mark. You know these facts far better than me.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
You know how I am voting this time ? You can use that for the next 5 years !!0 -
Because they are in poor wwc areas abandoned by those left leaning parties that tried to make the case for Remain.surbiton said:
Why is it that team from Leave areas get relegated ?steve_garner said:As a Hull City fan it pains to mention that they were relegated from the Premier League in 2010 and 2015. They may be a pattern here involving increased numbers of Tory MPs.
0 -
Except it isn't true. The PBV has the Tories on 38, which is higher than what they got in 2015. That's forgetting that comparing locals with a GE is a fools errand.surbiton said:
Thanks, Mark. You know these facts far better than me.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
You know how I am voting this time ? You can use that for the next 5 years !!0 -
That is actually a 4% swing - not 8%. But I have never rated Comres - often produce garbage!brokenwheel said:Seriously, this Comres is silly.
Apparently there has been an 8 point swing to Labour in the South since the GE. Conservative unchanged, Labour up 8.
Well we know it isn't racking up the vote in London based on the London Yougov poll, so where is this supposed swing coming from? Home counties UKIP going all to Labour?0 -
I think most of the movement in the polls is either campaign noise (fundamentals are stable) or else that slight rallying for Labour would have happened in any event, because the election was unexpected and it's focused minds.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
I'll be very surprised if Labour beat 30% on the day and, if I were a moderate, I really wouldn't want them to.0 -
Should be an "interesting" ELBOW tomorrow 0
-
Excluding NI they got more than 38% in 2015RobD said:
Except it isn't true. The PBV has the Tories on 38, which is higher than what they got in 2015. That's forgetting that comparing locals with a GE is a fools errand.surbiton said:
Thanks, Mark. You know these facts far better than me.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
You know how I am voting this time ? You can use that for the next 5 years !!0 -
Being on extended windows XP support would not have prevented this. MS have only today issued a patch for XP.DecrepitJohnL said:
We need to be a bit careful but it certainly looks that way, and presumably the Sundays will have more details.surbiton said:
Holy shit ! This article is from May 2015. And he and the government was warned.DecrepitJohnL said:
The NHS did have extended support but apparently Hunt did not renew it.surbiton said:
Since, most NHS computers apparently are XP, did the government take a decision not to go for extended support ? Even my company is covered.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's not free. For EOL operating systems like XP, extended support needs to be paid for. If Wales paid and England stopped paying in 2014, it explains Jeremy Hunt's disappearing act as well as why Wales was not hit. (Actually Microsoft has now made the patch free.)Omnium said:
I suspect the truth of your statement is akin to the truth of the viz article linked earlier. The security upgrade is of course free.SouthamObserver said:
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/26/uk-government-pcs-open-to-hackers-as-paid-windows-xp-support-ends
Presumably when Jeremy Hunt does emerge from purdah, we will know more.0 -
Anyone know how the certainty to vote figures compare with the headline VI figures in tonight's polls?0
-
Eurovision hosts all speaking like Sacha Baron Cohen's "Bruno" 0
-
Are you including Australia as well ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Should be an "interesting" ELBOW tomorrow
0 -
AH, how could I forget with Justin telling us all the time. Still, the second point stands.MarkSenior said:
Excluding NI they got more than 38% in 2015RobD said:
Except it isn't true. The PBV has the Tories on 38, which is higher than what they got in 2015. That's forgetting that comparing locals with a GE is a fools errand.surbiton said:
Thanks, Mark. You know these facts far better than me.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
You know how I am voting this time ? You can use that for the next 5 years !!0 -
At what price do you advise buying Labour at?surbiton said:
The spread is 154 - 160. Labour will win far more than 160.Omnium said:
Go on, I'm going to bite. What precisely is a money-making opportunity there?surbiton said:
The Labour spread is now a serious money making opportunity.PaulM said:
That's been my view for weeks. Buying at 160 is a great opportunity.kle4 said:
Either way, it means Labour won't get wiped out anywhere near as bad as once seemed possible.PaulM said:
"Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway. "NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Whether this will change when the manifestos appear and the Tories start showing some ankle is an interesting question. It appears so far that May really wanted a pretty blank cheque - we might raise taxes, or not; we may chip away the pension lock, or not; we will have Brexit, but who knows on what basis. That was to be delivered by an "eek the alternative is Corbyn" campaign. I think that that is already factored in, though - Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway.
It's also striking that the LibDem campaign is invisible so far. They're in favour of a new referendum, Farron's decided on balance that gay sex is not a sin, and that's all I'm aware of. Less engaged voters probably have hardly noticed them at all so far.
But i wouldn't bet on the spreads on any of this just yet!
Or alternatively a section of the Labour vote finds the idea of Corbyn defending the nation and Diane Abbott in charge of the Police to be frightening, but as long as the polls show this as remote they don't have a decision to make and can stick with supporting Labour.0 -
Moldova - yet another non-EU member!0
-
Does ComRes breakdown by age group?0
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Yes.Gallowgate said:Does ComRes breakdown by age group?
He's an excerpt
The only age groups more likely to vote Labour than Conservative are 18-24 year olds (51% v 26%) and 25-34 year olds (51% v 28%).
These age groups are considerably less likely to vote than older, more Conservative people.0 -
I used to tell all new graduate engineers about the Therac-25 story, as it's a classic example of how testing can miss perfectly reasonable use-cases. In the case of the Therac-25, there were several problems in the software and wider system design.GeoffM said:Whilst not wishing to interfere in this sub-thread, JJ earlier makes a reference to Therac-25 which takes us to deaths here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Therac-25
http://sunnyday.mit.edu/papers/therac.pdf
To make matters worse, they fixed a bug, and everything seemed fine. Except there was another similar bug that killed another patient a few years later ...0 -
On comparing locals to GE
2015 GE
Con 37.8
Lab 31.2
LD 8.1
UKIP 12.9
2015 Locals (PNVS)
Con 31.3
Lab 30.3
LD 13.7
UKIP 13.3
Delta (GE - locals)
Con 6.5
Lab 0.9
LD -5.6
UKIP -0.4
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html0 -
I live in Pembs and half the last bloody cabinet were Labour defectors. Working hard down here. Just put up my Philippa Thompson poster.justin124 said:
I grew up in Pembrokeshire and am aware of many non-Tory Independents. Quite a few were Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
I think that is correct. 80 per cent is a rough rule.Sean_F said:
Labour's Welsh vote was flattered by fielding more candidates than the other parties.
It's very difficult to attribute votes for Independents to other parties. My guess is that in places like Bridgend, Pembroke, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan , many Independents are Conservatives, whereas in the Valleys they're Labour supporters who've fallen out with the local party.
Labour did well in the cities -- they even gained seats in Swansea and Llanelli, and the losses in Cardiff were less than they should have been. Plaid Cymru did well in the rural areas.
I think this points to 6 Lab losses: Ynys Mon -> PC or Tory, and the 4 Welsh NE seats & Bridgend -> Tories.
I think Ceredigion is TCTC, and my bet for a surprise result would be the Rhondda where Chris Bryant has lost votes in every election.0 -
http://www.itpro.co.uk/operating-systems/24672/gov-ends-55m-xp-custom-support-contract
Let's see what tomorrow brings. £5.5m
"The NHS also has a way to go before it can transition away from XP.
But the GDS is determined not to renew the contract, saying instead that slow coaches must adhere to government guidelines on lowering risk – or sort their own support out."
Has anyone seen Hunt today ?
0 -
Yes.Gallowgate said:Does ComRes breakdown by age group?
18-24 Con 26, Lab 51
25-34 Con 28, Lab 51 (looks suspect to yours truly)
35-44 Con 39, Lab 37
45-54 Con 44, Lab 29
55-64 Con 50, Lab 26
65+ Con 66, Lab 150 -
But the 1983 local elections did not occur in the context of a general election campaign. Whilst the election announcement did happen the following week , it came as a bit of a surprise. A few days earlier commentators had expected the election to be held in the autumn.tyson said:
Surely Nick your instinct must tell you that Labour is not going to stay steady from 2015? We had the Council elections last week which were worse than those for Michael Foot in a similar position. This has all the hallmarks of your tick tock prediction.NickPalmer said:The evidence of what'#s happening is really pretty clear, confirmed by polls, canvassing and anecdotal evidence - there's almost no confusion:
1. Tories have a huge swing from UKIP
2. Labour is close to where they were in 2015.
3.The LibDems are drifting
4. UKIP is plunging.
I see there are still posters denying it all - Labour must be below 25%, etc. But without evidence to the contrry, it seems reasonable to believe the polls.
Whether this will change when the manifestos appear and the Tories start showing some ankle is an interesting question. It appears so far that May really wanted a pretty blank cheque - we might raise taxes, or not; we may chip away the pension lock, or not; we will have Brexit, but who knows on what basis. That was to be delivered by an "eek the alternative is Corbyn" campaign. I think that that is already factored in, though - Labour voters are well aware of Corbyn's alleged defects, and either disagree or are inclined to vote Labour anyway.
It's also striking that the LibDem campaign is invisible so far. They're in favour of a new referendum, Farron's decided on balance that gay sex is not a sin, and that's all I'm aware of. Less engaged voters probably have hardly noticed them at all so far.
But i wouldn't bet on the spreads on any of this just yet!0 -
Decisions were made by the Government Digital Service which is I think ultimately responsible to the Cabinet Office - minister Maude under coalition, then Hancock - I am guessing other depts can say they were acting on advice. Good thing the Home Sec at the time looks to be in the clear.RobD said:
Being on extended windows XP support would not have prevented this. MS have only today issued a patch for XP.DecrepitJohnL said:
We need to be a bit careful but it certainly looks that way, and presumably the Sundays will have more details.surbiton said:
Holy shit ! This article is from May 2015. And he and the government was warned.DecrepitJohnL said:
The NHS did have extended support but apparently Hunt did not renew it.surbiton said:
Since, most NHS computers apparently are XP, did the government take a decision not to go for extended support ? Even my company is covered.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's not free. For EOL operating systems like XP, extended support needs to be paid for. If Wales paid and England stopped paying in 2014, it explains Jeremy Hunt's disappearing act as well as why Wales was not hit. (Actually Microsoft has now made the patch free.)Omnium said:
I suspect the truth of your statement is akin to the truth of the viz article linked earlier. The security upgrade is of course free.SouthamObserver said:
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/26/uk-government-pcs-open-to-hackers-as-paid-windows-xp-support-ends
Presumably when Jeremy Hunt does emerge from purdah, we will know more.0 -
Yes I meant 8 points up. However i later corrected myself as I was looking at the wrong figures, Labour would be 5 points up and Con 4.justin124 said:
That is actually a 4% swing - not 8%. But I have never rated Comres - often produce garbage!brokenwheel said:Seriously, this Comres is silly.
Apparently there has been an 8 point swing to Labour in the South since the GE. Conservative unchanged, Labour up 8.
Well we know it isn't racking up the vote in London based on the London Yougov poll, so where is this supposed swing coming from? Home counties UKIP going all to Labour?0 -
So, it will be fair to assume that within ages 18-44 more will vote Labour. Labour will be massacred by the 45+ vote.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Gallowgate said:Does ComRes breakdown by age group?
He's an excerpt
The only age groups more likely to vote Labour than Conservative are 18-24 year olds (51% v 26%) and 25-34 year olds (51% v 28%).
These age groups are considerably less likely to vote than older, more Conservative people.
Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock !0 -
Students for jezza bumping up labours numbers...We know how reliable they are when it comes to voting day.Black_Rook said:
Yes.Gallowgate said:Does ComRes breakdown by age group?
18-24 Con 26, Lab 51
25-34 Con 28, Lab 51 (looks suspect to yours truly)
35-44 Con 39, Lab 37
45-54 Con 44, Lab 29
55-64 Con 50, Lab 26
65+ Con 66, Lab 150 -
Sunil, that was exactly what I thought!Sunil_Prasannan said:Eurovision hosts all speaking like Sacha Baron Cohen's "Bruno"
0 -
Safe to assume? The ComRes subsamples have 35-44 with the Tories marginally ahead. For it to be safe you'd assume a 5ish point lead for Labour.surbiton said:
So, it will be fair to assume that within ages 18-44 more will vote Labour. Labour will be massacred by the 45+ vote.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Gallowgate said:Does ComRes breakdown by age group?
He's an excerpt
The only age groups more likely to vote Labour than Conservative are 18-24 year olds (51% v 26%) and 25-34 year olds (51% v 28%).
These age groups are considerably less likely to vote than older, more Conservative people.
Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock !0 -
Source, please?MarkSenior said:
Excluding NI they got more than 38% in 2015RobD said:
Except it isn't true. The PBV has the Tories on 38, which is higher than what they got in 2015. That's forgetting that comparing locals with a GE is a fools errand.surbiton said:
Thanks, Mark. You know these facts far better than me.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
You know how I am voting this time ? You can use that for the next 5 years !!0 -
Thanks guys.0
-
I have them at 37.8.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Source, please?MarkSenior said:
Excluding NI they got more than 38% in 2015RobD said:
Except it isn't true. The PBV has the Tories on 38, which is higher than what they got in 2015. That's forgetting that comparing locals with a GE is a fools errand.surbiton said:
Thanks, Mark. You know these facts far better than me.MarkSenior said:
Not really , overall they fell a little short of their 2015 GE vote share . Did better in some areas such as NE but they had done very badly in 2013 hence the big gains .surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
You know how I am voting this time ? You can use that for the next 5 years !!0 -
Look at the map.justin124 said:
I grew up in Pembrokeshire and am aware of many non-Tory Independents. Quite a few were Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
I think that is correct. 80 per cent is a rough rule.Sean_F said:
Labour's Welsh vote was flattered by fielding more candidates than the other parties.
It's very difficult to attribute votes for Independents to other parties. My guess is that in places like Bridgend, Pembroke, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan , many Independents are Conservatives, whereas in the Valleys they're Labour supporters who've fallen out with the local party.
Labour did well in the cities -- they even gained seats in Swansea and Llanelli, and the losses in Cardiff were less than they should have been. Plaid Cymru did well in the rural areas.
I think this points to 6 Lab losses: Ynys Mon -> PC or Tory, and the 4 Welsh NE seats & Bridgend -> Tories.
I think Ceredigion is TCTC, and my bet for a surprise result would be the Rhondda where Chris Bryant has lost votes in every election.
https://twitter.com/siongwilym/status/860622162738257927/photo/1
Look at where the independents are. They are in the Tory seats.
Ynys Mon has zero Tory Councillors.
Yet, the Tories will either come first or a very close second next month.
0 -
Och, don't begrudge the Kippers in kilts their wee seconds..sorry..victories.surbiton said:
Did the Tories really win big in the locals ? All the figures are compared to 2013 or 2012 in Scotland. Not compared to 2015.Sean_F said:
I think the Conservative campaign is going very much to plan. They've won very big in the local elections and have a big lead in the polls.Barnesian said:The Tory strategy is not going to plan.
It appears to be:
1.Make it personal - May v. Corbyn
2. Keep quiet or equivocal about specific policies.
Although May outshines Corbyn, she only has a downside as she is exposed to be somewhat robotic, secretive, untrustworthy and not very competent or likeable. Corbyn, on the other hand, can only go up as he gets more TV exposure as a decent, likable open fellow with popular policies and not at all as portrayed in the right wing newspapers.
He has a very long way to go and won't catch up with her but he's narrowing the gap. That's the dynamic.
If their candidates manage to delete all their racist, bigoted FB posts & tweets, they might even equal Thatcher's worst ever result in Scotland!0 -
Tories are on 53 with the over 35s with ComRes and just under 55 with Opinium.surbiton said:
So, it will be fair to assume that within ages 18-44 more will vote Labour. Labour will be massacred by the 45+ vote.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Gallowgate said:Does ComRes breakdown by age group?
He's an excerpt
The only age groups more likely to vote Labour than Conservative are 18-24 year olds (51% v 26%) and 25-34 year olds (51% v 28%).
These age groups are considerably less likely to vote than older, more Conservative people.
Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock !
0 -
18-24 Con 26, Lab 51RobD said:
Safe to assume? The ComRes subsamples have 35-44 with the Tories marginally ahead. For it to be safe you'd assume a 5ish point lead for Labour.surbiton said:
So, it will be fair to assume that within ages 18-44 more will vote Labour. Labour will be massacred by the 45+ vote.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Gallowgate said:Does ComRes breakdown by age group?
He's an excerpt
The only age groups more likely to vote Labour than Conservative are 18-24 year olds (51% v 26%) and 25-34 year olds (51% v 28%).
These age groups are considerably less likely to vote than older, more Conservative people.
Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock !
25-34 Con 28, Lab 51 (looks suspect to yours truly)
35-44 Con 39, Lab 37
It is more than safe to assume. It's an almost bloody guarantee ! Maybe even including those upto 54 years of age.
Can we conclude more taxpayers vote Labour than the Tories ?0 -
No. Microsoft made the patch generally available for free today (or yesterday). If you were on extended support, you'd already have had it.RobD said:
Being on extended windows XP support would not have prevented this. MS have only today issued a patch for XP.DecrepitJohnL said:
We need to be a bit careful but it certainly looks that way, and presumably the Sundays will have more details.surbiton said:
Holy shit ! This article is from May 2015. And he and the government was warned.DecrepitJohnL said:
The NHS did have extended support but apparently Hunt did not renew it.surbiton said:
Since, most NHS computers apparently are XP, did the government take a decision not to go for extended support ? Even my company is covered.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's not free. For EOL operating systems like XP, extended support needs to be paid for. If Wales paid and England stopped paying in 2014, it explains Jeremy Hunt's disappearing act as well as why Wales was not hit. (Actually Microsoft has now made the patch free.)Omnium said:
I suspect the truth of your statement is akin to the truth of the viz article linked earlier. The security upgrade is of course free.SouthamObserver said:
No attacks in Wales, apparently. The Welsh government did pay for the security upgrade.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult to confine it to the NHS when it was a worldwide attack hitting lots of different countries and industriesFrancisUrquhart said:It looks like the Tories might have dodged two bullets this week. The expenses stuff and now the NHS ransom-ware. Given nearly all the NHS trusts are back online, there is limited scope for attacking the government handling (although in these situation the role of central government is always overstated both positively and negatively).
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/26/uk-government-pcs-open-to-hackers-as-paid-windows-xp-support-ends
Presumably when Jeremy Hunt does emerge from purdah, we will know more.
0 -
This would have been a great year to have done a Eurovision thread.0
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Oh right, you are considering 18-44, rather than the three bins separately. Suspect 18-34 will go Labour, but 35-44 will go Tory.surbiton said:
18-24 Con 26, Lab 51RobD said:
Safe to assume? The ComRes subsamples have 35-44 with the Tories marginally ahead. For it to be safe you'd assume a 5ish point lead for Labour.surbiton said:
So, it will be fair to assume that within ages 18-44 more will vote Labour. Labour will be massacred by the 45+ vote.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Gallowgate said:Does ComRes breakdown by age group?
He's an excerpt
The only age groups more likely to vote Labour than Conservative are 18-24 year olds (51% v 26%) and 25-34 year olds (51% v 28%).
These age groups are considerably less likely to vote than older, more Conservative people.
Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock ! Triple Lock !
25-34 Con 28, Lab 51 (looks suspect to yours truly)
35-44 Con 39, Lab 37
It is more than safe to assume. It's an almost bloody guarantee ! Maybe even including those upto 54 years of age.
Can we conclude more taxpayers vote Labour than the Tories ?0 -
However the locals were on the day of the GE in 2015 and so turnout relatively high. Locals outside of a general election like this year should favour parties who do better with the politically engaged, particularly the LDs but to a lesser extent Labour. The swing against the LDs at least should be slightly higher this year.RobD said:On comparing locals to GE
2015 GE
Con 37.8
Lab 31.2
LD 8.1
UKIP 12.9
2015 Locals (PNVS)
Con 31.3
Lab 30.3
LD 13.7
UKIP 13.3
Delta (GE - locals)
Con 6.5
Lab 0.9
LD -5.6
UKIP -0.4
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html0 -
I can see that Llafur beating the shit out of everyone else.YBarddCwsc said:
Look at the map.justin124 said:
I grew up in Pembrokeshire and am aware of many non-Tory Independents. Quite a few were Labour.YBarddCwsc said:
I think that is correct. 80 per cent is a rough rule.Sean_F said:
Labour's Welsh vote was flattered by fielding more candidates than the other parties.
It's very difficult to attribute votes for Independents to other parties. My guess is that in places like Bridgend, Pembroke, Powys, Vale of Glamorgan , many Independents are Conservatives, whereas in the Valleys they're Labour supporters who've fallen out with the local party.
Labour did well in the cities -- they even gained seats in Swansea and Llanelli, and the losses in Cardiff were less than they should have been. Plaid Cymru did well in the rural areas.
I think this points to 6 Lab losses: Ynys Mon -> PC or Tory, and the 4 Welsh NE seats & Bridgend -> Tories.
I think Ceredigion is TCTC, and my bet for a surprise result would be the Rhondda where Chris Bryant has lost votes in every election.
https://twitter.com/siongwilym/status/860622162738257927/photo/1
Look at where the independents are. They are in the Tory seats.
Ynys Mon has zero Tory Councillors.
Yet, the Tories will either come first or a very close second next month.0
