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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even though it is fighting fewer seats and had no MPs the BBC is favouring UKIP over the Greens in its GE2017 specials
This morning the BBC announced it’s lineup of General Election specials. They are listed in the table above. Surprisingly UKIP, which has 377 seats is being given an Andrew Neil interview but the Greens, with 468 candidates, are not
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I expect the Corbyn QT to cost Labour badly.0
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There's no point to UKIP any more surely.
Did what they set out to achieve, now they can retire.
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BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.0
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Any Welsh or Scottish poll or even predictions ?0
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More People voted for UKIP in 2015 than LD and SNP combined0
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If the Green co-leaders do get an interview, they should be forced to deliver it in the style of I'm Sorry I Haven't A Clue's 'Letter Writing' game, taking turns to say a word.0
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Some places perhaps. I'd be interested in an analysis, as they are standing down in some places they did very well, explicitly to help the local Brexity candidate in some cases. They got 18% in my area last time and aren't standing this time.isam said:
Kipper score should be roughly just over half of the VI score shouldn't it? Prob standing in places they are likely to do okkle4 said:
LDs are dead. Lab just keep creeping up, Corbyn safe as houses. Remember when close to 25 was seen as common? Really is showing Ed M was worse than I thought. Cooper and the others won't challenge him if they get that high.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB poll (changes since last week)
Con 46 (nc) Lab 32 (+1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 7 (-1)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
UKIP score way too high though.
OT Blimey, just seem just how many seats the LDs held in the SW in 2010, and how unlikely they are to make inroads this time. Rough times.0 -
The broadcasters are in a bit of a pickle here because based on the criteria they lay down - current and recent support - there are actually only two main parties in GB as a whole. And that's not enough for them to make good TV.0
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Don't be ridiculous. The BBC is full of left wing metropolitan liberals, as it were.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
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Overall the lineup looks fairly similar to what happened two years ago but with the Lib Dems being given a greater presence.
How is that justifiable? I guess by standing still, edging up barely, they have proportionally gone up due to UKIP cratering.0 -
FPT:
I heard Rudd on the radio this morning and she didn't inspire confidence, she sounded well out of her depth.Prodicus said:Tory own goal. Someone suppress this ghastly Rudd woman.
After waffling on about NHS IT Rudd went on to the latest brainwave about the young having a right to erase their past from social media. It's almost as though the government are completely aware that funny/provocative/stupid stuff that gets posted on social media doesn't stay on those services alone for very long. There are forums, image hosts, websites, and services that are full of stuff scraped from social media. Instead of wasting time and money on an impractical "right to delete" they might spend the same effort on educating people to be more careful about what they post and create in the first place. The basic rule though is that you can't delete stuff from the internet.
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It's not really for the BBC to factor in that sort of thing though. Fact is UKIP won the European Parliament elections and was the third party by vote share in GE2015. Given the divergences between votes and seats, it's difficult to choose levels of representation in a fair way.surbiton said:
UKIP will also lose more votes than LD and SNP combined.isam said:More People voted for UKIP in 2015 than LD and SNP combined
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Wow, it has high profile presenters in its ranks who probably vote Tory, the organisation must therefore be Tory. I sure hope they don't have other ones who almost certainly vote Labour.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
Good Corbynism there though.0 -
At the last GE it was considered ok for UKIP to be given less coverage than the Lib Dems because the calculation used past votes rather than current opinion. That was obviously ridiculous as any fool could see UKIP were going to out poll the Lib Dems, so it seems strange that the Lib Dems are given more prominence again having got less than 2/3 UKIP vote in 2015. It isn't as if they are nailed on to improve on their 2015 vote, or are particularly relevant.surbiton said:
UKIP will also lose more votes than LD and SNP combined.isam said:More People voted for UKIP in 2015 than LD and SNP combined
Not that I am particularly complaining about this years amount of UKIP coverage. It was the 2015 debacle that was wrong0 -
My fave LD South West statto seat is Somerton and Frome - 4 Lib Dem holds in 1997, 2001 & 2005 with sub 1000 majority, then in 2010 it went up to nearly 2000 (!) thanks to tactical voting (and the ridiculously named Annunziata Rees-Mogg got the highest number of votes for a losing candidate)kle4 said:
Some places perhaps. I'd be interested in an analysis, as they are standing down in some places they did very well, explicitly to help the local Brexity candidate in some cases. They got 18% in my area last time and aren't standing this time.isam said:
Kipper score should be roughly just over half of the VI score shouldn't it? Prob standing in places they are likely to do okkle4 said:
LDs are dead. Lab just keep creeping up, Corbyn safe as houses. Remember when close to 25 was seen as common? Really is showing Ed M was worse than I thought. Cooper and the others won't challenge him if they get that high.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB poll (changes since last week)
Con 46 (nc) Lab 32 (+1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 7 (-1)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
UKIP score way too high though.
OT Blimey, just seem just how many seats the LDs held in the SW in 2010, and how unlikely they are to make inroads this time. Rough times.
But then the LDs were swept away and the Tory majority in 2015 was 20,268!0 -
The BBC is trying to promote UKIP and ignoring the Greens to help beleaguered Labour. It's obvious and desperate.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
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FPT and for SouthamObserver:
How do you feel about companies? Google, for instance, is notorious for not paying a huge amount in tax, and so by your definition not a wealth creator, but it has utterly transformed the average persons access to information. I often tell classes that the iPad they have on their desk gives them access in a much easier way to more information than I had available to me when I was at university with a copyright library across the road. Similarly Apple with iTunes U. Surely that is adding a huge amount of value?0 -
Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West. Best chance of a Labour gain I would say, just ahead of East Lothian, Brighton Kemptown and Cardiff North.0 -
Remarkable indeed. Locals really didn't like the coalition or really loved Cameron.JonCisBack said:
My fave LD South West statto seat is Somerton and Frome - 4 Lib Dem holds in 1997, 2001 & 2005 with sub 1000 majority, then in 2010 it went up to nearly 2000 (!) thanks to tactical voting (and the ridiculously named Annunziata Rees-Mogg got the highest number of votes for a losing candidate)kle4 said:
Some places perhaps. I'd be interested in an analysis, as they are standing down in some places they did very well, explicitly to help the local Brexity candidate in some cases. They got 18% in my area last time and aren't standing this time.isam said:
Kipper score should be roughly just over half of the VI score shouldn't it? Prob standing in places they are likely to do okkle4 said:
LDs are dead. Lab just keep creeping up, Corbyn safe as houses. Remember when close to 25 was seen as common? Really is showing Ed M was worse than I thought. Cooper and the others won't challenge him if they get that high.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB poll (changes since last week)
Con 46 (nc) Lab 32 (+1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 7 (-1)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
UKIP score way too high though.
OT Blimey, just seem just how many seats the LDs held in the SW in 2010, and how unlikely they are to make inroads this time. Rough times.
But then the LDs were swept away and the Tory majority in 2015 was 20,268!
I recall reading CCHQ asked Annunziata if she could go by Nancy instead, and she said no. I hope that story is true.0 -
It's the same line of 'reasoning' as "this opinion pollster has a couple of Tories in senior positions, therefore the poll showing a 22% deficit is lies and we're going to win".kle4 said:
Wow, it has high profile presenters in its ranks who probably vote Tory, the organisation must therefore be Tory. I sure hope they don't have other ones who almost certainly vote Labour.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
Good Corbynism there though.0 -
Probably just as well the Greens are not invited to the high table, Brillo interviewed Caroline Lukas a few weeks ago on the subject of the now defunct ‘progressive alliance’, she came across as worthy, but slightly barking none the less.0
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I make it, if the Scottish split was:
SNP 45, Con 28, Lab 16, LD 6, Gr 2, UKIP 1
This would give with UNS:
SNP 53, Con 4, Lab 1, LD 10 -
BBC seems to me to be on average very slightly Blairite-lefty liberal wishywashy, but manages to do a decent job of neutrality in the end.nunu said:
You're kidding right? BBC has a left wing bias.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
Probably not many people there at the moment who are really serious supporters of either main party...? Not since they got rid of Paul Mason :-)0 -
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
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WRT the ORB poll, the Conservatives are up 4% on the start of the campaign, Labour up 1%.
For Labour to win 30% or so means very little if the Conservatives are close to 50%.0 -
One or two Falklands veterans or relatives of IRA victims in the audience should do the trick.kle4 said:
One would hope. But he might pull his 'confused, gentle soul' thing, which works remarkably well. I hope he loses his cool - when he does, its quite something.Ishmael_Z said:I expect the Corbyn QT to cost Labour badly.
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It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.0 -
They wanted her to run as Nancy Mogg.kle4 said:
Remarkable indeed. Locals really didn't like the coalition or really loved Cameron.JonCisBack said:
My fave LD South West statto seat is Somerton and Frome - 4 Lib Dem holds in 1997, 2001 & 2005 with sub 1000 majority, then in 2010 it went up to nearly 2000 (!) thanks to tactical voting (and the ridiculously named Annunziata Rees-Mogg got the highest number of votes for a losing candidate)kle4 said:
Some places perhaps. I'd be interested in an analysis, as they are standing down in some places they did very well, explicitly to help the local Brexity candidate in some cases. They got 18% in my area last time and aren't standing this time.isam said:
Kipper score should be roughly just over half of the VI score shouldn't it? Prob standing in places they are likely to do okkle4 said:
LDs are dead. Lab just keep creeping up, Corbyn safe as houses. Remember when close to 25 was seen as common? Really is showing Ed M was worse than I thought. Cooper and the others won't challenge him if they get that high.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB poll (changes since last week)
Con 46 (nc) Lab 32 (+1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 7 (-1)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
UKIP score way too high though.
OT Blimey, just seem just how many seats the LDs held in the SW in 2010, and how unlikely they are to make inroads this time. Rough times.
But then the LDs were swept away and the Tory majority in 2015 was 20,268!
I recall reading CCHQ asked Annunziata if she could go by Nancy instead, and she said no. I hope that story is true.0 -
It is. And they are making huge profits as a result. I would argue that they should be paying a lot more tax as they benefit massively from the investments that governments make in a wide variety of areas - and, what's more - they need prosperous, information-hungry, service and product consuming users. They also owe a lot of their success to state-guaranteed intellectual property rights. If Google lost the exclusive use if its trademarks, patents and copyrights it would very quickly find itself in a whole heap of trouble.Fysics_Teacher said:FPT and for SouthamObserver:
How do you feel about companies? Google, for instance, is notorious for not paying a huge amount in tax, and so by your definition not a wealth creator, but it has utterly transformed the average persons access to information. I often tell classes that the iPad they have on their desk gives them access in a much easier way to more information than I had available to me when I was at university with a copyright library across the road. Similarly Apple with iTunes U. Surely that is adding a huge amount of value?
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Interviewing NUT ALL is not helping UKIP at all.MonikerDiCanio said:
The BBC is trying to promote UKIP and ignoring the Greens to help beleaguered Labour. It's obvious and desperate.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
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My guess is that, even though Hallam has quite Corbyn-friendly demographics, the Labour vote really did max out there in 2015. There surely will have been some people there in 2015 who would've voted LD anywhere else, but just voted Lab to try to get Clegg out. That surely will be lessened this time since, while the LDs are irrelevant, Clegg isn't really "toxic" anymore.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.0 -
The BBC is the establishment, it is the elite and it is London. Therefore its political bias is whatever the establishment, the elite and London believe at any given time. At the moment, that means it is anti-Brexit, pro-immigration and multiculturalism, pro-Greenpeace, anti-Christian and pro-all other religions. Historically, it is permanently anti-Tory, was pro-Labour under Blair and has a soft-spot for the LibDems so long as they don't rock their boats.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
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Using the favourite PB expression, can you provide evidence that I am a Corbynite, you moron ?kle4 said:
Wow, it has high profile presenters in its ranks who probably vote Tory, the organisation must therefore be Tory. I sure hope they don't have other ones who almost certainly vote Labour.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
Good Corbynism there though.0 -
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.0 -
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That's worse - sounds like she has 15 cats and smells of weeSean_F said:
They wanted her to run as Nancy Mogg.kle4 said:
Remarkable indeed. Locals really didn't like the coalition or really loved Cameron.JonCisBack said:
My fave LD South West statto seat is Somerton and Frome - 4 Lib Dem holds in 1997, 2001 & 2005 with sub 1000 majority, then in 2010 it went up to nearly 2000 (!) thanks to tactical voting (and the ridiculously named Annunziata Rees-Mogg got the highest number of votes for a losing candidate)kle4 said:
Some places perhaps. I'd be interested in an analysis, as they are standing down in some places they did very well, explicitly to help the local Brexity candidate in some cases. They got 18% in my area last time and aren't standing this time.isam said:
Kipper score should be roughly just over half of the VI score shouldn't it? Prob standing in places they are likely to do okkle4 said:
LDs are dead. Lab just keep creeping up, Corbyn safe as houses. Remember when close to 25 was seen as common? Really is showing Ed M was worse than I thought. Cooper and the others won't challenge him if they get that high.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB poll (changes since last week)
Con 46 (nc) Lab 32 (+1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 7 (-1)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
UKIP score way too high though.
OT Blimey, just seem just how many seats the LDs held in the SW in 2010, and how unlikely they are to make inroads this time. Rough times.
But then the LDs were swept away and the Tory majority in 2015 was 20,268!
I recall reading CCHQ asked Annunziata if she could go by Nancy instead, and she said no. I hope that story is true.0 -
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.calum said:Graph in poster = 3 way marginal !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/863335684664426497
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...0 -
Of course, these are exactly the kind arguments that the swivel-eyed right have been making about the BBC for years. It's funny to see them react to the left holding up a mirror to their rantings.kle4 said:
Wow, it has high profile presenters in its ranks who probably vote Tory, the organisation must therefore be Tory. I sure hope they don't have other ones who almost certainly vote Labour.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
Good Corbynism there though.
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They weren't given less prominence than the Lib Dems - both were classed as major parties, and received substantial coverage, debate slots and so on. For UKIP, their "major" status was based on recent elections and current polls; for the Lib Dems it was based on the fact they won around a quarter of the vote at the previous General Election and had a level of support likely to deliver Parliamentary seats again (which it did - fewer than they'd have liked but substantially more than UKIP).isam said:
At the last GE it was considered ok for UKIP to be given less coverage than the Lib Dems because the calculation used past votes rather than current opinion. That was obviously ridiculous as any fool could see UKIP were going to out poll the Lib Dems, so it seems strange that the Lib Dems are given more prominence again having got less than 2/3 UKIP vote in 2015. It isn't as if they are nailed on to improve on their 2015 vote, or are particularly relevantsurbiton said:
UKIP will also lose more votes than LD and SNP combined.isam said:More People voted for UKIP in 2015 than LD and SNP combined
The rules have changed a bit since so you are required to give due prominence taking into account both measures of past and current support. UKIP can point to the last General Election in terms of past support - although it was one where they got a lot of votes but just one MP. In terms of present support, they have nothing to say. The last electoral test, the local elections, were an unmitigated disaster. Most people in the UK won't even have the opportunity to vote for a UKIP candidate in the unlikely event they wanted to. And it's a near certainty that they will have fewer MPs than the Greens in the next Parliament (i.e. nil).0 -
Chap on the right is obviously the director of the shoot.calum said:Graph in poster = 3 way marginal !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/8633356846644264970 -
It was a joke. They do love to talk about how pro-Tory the BBC is after all. Even if you were serious, sharing one characteristic with them would not mean you are the same in everything.surbiton said:
Using the favourite PB expression, can you provide evidence that I am a Corbynite, you moron ?kle4 said:
Wow, it has high profile presenters in its ranks who probably vote Tory, the organisation must therefore be Tory. I sure hope they don't have other ones who almost certainly vote Labour.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
Good Corbynism there though.0 -
Your'e probably correct, but it's only £3.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
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It's a brilliant ploy to spread Tory appeal to those in the East Renfrewshire area who habitually stand on their heads. Again, it shows what a genius Lynton Crosby is etc.Fysics_Teacher said:
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.calum said:Graph in poster = 3 way marginal !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/863335684664426497
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...0 -
Sadly, the BBC does not have the phone numbers of those people.Essexit said:
One or two Falklands veterans or relatives of IRA victims in the audience should do the trick.kle4 said:
One would hope. But he might pull his 'confused, gentle soul' thing, which works remarkably well. I hope he loses his cool - when he does, its quite something.Ishmael_Z said:I expect the Corbyn QT to cost Labour badly.
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This chap is a good example of a we in Scotland call a "numpty" !!Fysics_Teacher said:
Shame the guy on the extreme right has his message the wrong way up.calum said:Graph in poster = 3 way marginal !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/863335684664426497
I'm sure there is a metaphor in there somewhere...0 -
They say students are getting over that because of Brexit, and I'm told he is actually reasonably popular in the seat, but frankly I have my doubts, I think he is in real trouble once again, and he may hold, but it'll be tight again - Labour almost snatched it last time, students apparently like Corbyn, and the Tories won't help Clegg this time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.0 -
I agree. But CCHQ thought it would sound more working class.JonCisBack said:
That's worse - sounds like she has 15 cats and smells of weeSean_F said:
They wanted her to run as Nancy Mogg.kle4 said:
Remarkable indeed. Locals really didn't like the coalition or really loved Cameron.JonCisBack said:
My fave LD South West statto seat is Somerton and Frome - 4 Lib Dem holds in 1997, 2001 & 2005 with sub 1000 majority, then in 2010 it went up to nearly 2000 (!) thanks to tactical voting (and the ridiculously named Annunziata Rees-Mogg got the highest number of votes for a losing candidate)kle4 said:
Some places perhaps. I'd be interested in an analysis, as they are standing down in some places they did very well, explicitly to help the local Brexity candidate in some cases. They got 18% in my area last time and aren't standing this time.isam said:
Kipper score should be roughly just over half of the VI score shouldn't it? Prob standing in places they are likely to do okkle4 said:
LDs are dead. Lab just keep creeping up, Corbyn safe as houses. Remember when close to 25 was seen as common? Really is showing Ed M was worse than I thought. Cooper and the others won't challenge him if they get that high.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB poll (changes since last week)
Con 46 (nc) Lab 32 (+1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 7 (-1)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
UKIP score way too high though.
OT Blimey, just seem just how many seats the LDs held in the SW in 2010, and how unlikely they are to make inroads this time. Rough times.
But then the LDs were swept away and the Tory majority in 2015 was 20,268!
I recall reading CCHQ asked Annunziata if she could go by Nancy instead, and she said no. I hope that story is true.0 -
Nuttall's an idiot who's useful to the Beeb in keeping the Greens off the box.surbiton said:
Interviewing NUT ALL is not helping UKIP at all.MonikerDiCanio said:
The BBC is trying to promote UKIP and ignoring the Greens to help beleaguered Labour. It's obvious and desperate.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
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I love it - for variety, if nothing else.SouthamObserver said:
Of course, these are exactly the kind arguments that the swivel-eyed right have been making about the BBC for years. It's funny to see them react to the left holding up a mirror to their rantings.kle4 said:
Wow, it has high profile presenters in its ranks who probably vote Tory, the organisation must therefore be Tory. I sure hope they don't have other ones who almost certainly vote Labour.surbiton said:BBC is anti-Labour and anti-Green. No surprise there. The Corporation governed by Tories and has in its ranks, Andrew Neil, Jeremy Paxman cannot be considered anything else.
Good Corbynism there though.0 -
ROFLSean_F said:
I agree. But CCHQ thought it would sound more working class.JonCisBack said:
That's worse - sounds like she has 15 cats and smells of weeSean_F said:
They wanted her to run as Nancy Mogg.kle4 said:
Remarkable indeed. Locals really didn't like the coalition or really loved Cameron.JonCisBack said:
My fave LD South West statto seat is Somerton and Frome - 4 Lib Dem holds in 1997, 2001 & 2005 with sub 1000 majority, then in 2010 it went up to nearly 2000 (!) thanks to tactical voting (and the ridiculously named Annunziata Rees-Mogg got the highest number of votes for a losing candidate)kle4 said:
Some places perhaps. I'd be interested in an analysis, as they are standing down in some places they did very well, explicitly to help the local Brexity candidate in some cases. They got 18% in my area last time and aren't standing this time.isam said:
Kipper score should be roughly just over half of the VI score shouldn't it? Prob standing in places they are likely to do okkle4 said:
LDs are dead. Lab just keep creeping up, Corbyn safe as houses. Remember when close to 25 was seen as common? Really is showing Ed M was worse than I thought. Cooper and the others won't challenge him if they get that high.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB poll (changes since last week)
Con 46 (nc) Lab 32 (+1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 7 (-1)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
UKIP score way too high though.
OT Blimey, just seem just how many seats the LDs held in the SW in 2010, and how unlikely they are to make inroads this time. Rough times.
But then the LDs were swept away and the Tory majority in 2015 was 20,268!
I recall reading CCHQ asked Annunziata if she could go by Nancy instead, and she said no. I hope that story is true.0 -
I'd add to that the fact that Natalie Bennett is standing for the Greens in Sheffield Central, and they are giving it a good go. Labour would have flooded Hallam from the rest of the city in 2015. This time, while they should be okay in the end in Central, they do need to watch their backs.Danny565 said:
My guess is that, even though Hallam has quite Corbyn-friendly demographics, the Labour vote really did max out there in 2015. There surely will have been some people there in 2015 who would've voted LD anywhere else, but just voted Lab to try to get Clegg out. That surely will be lessened this time since, while the LDs are irrelevant, Clegg isn't really "toxic" anymore.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.0 -
A key demographic in Somerton and Frome, no doubt.Sean_F said:
I agree. But CCHQ thought it would sound more working class.JonCisBack said:
That's worse - sounds like she has 15 cats and smells of weeSean_F said:
They wanted her to run as Nancy Mogg.kle4 said:
Remarkable indeed. Locals really didn't like the coalition or really loved Cameron.JonCisBack said:
My fave LD South West statto seat is Somerton and Frome - 4 Lib Dem holds in 1997, 2001 & 2005 with sub 1000 majority, then in 2010 it went up to nearly 2000 (!) thanks to tactical voting (and the ridiculously named Annunziata Rees-Mogg got the highest number of votes for a losing candidate)kle4 said:
Some places perhaps. I'd be interested in an analysis, as they are standing down in some places they did very well, explicitly to help the local Brexity candidate in some cases. They got 18% in my area last time and aren't standing this time.isam said:
Kipper score should be roughly just over half of the VI score shouldn't it? Prob standing in places they are likely to do okkle4 said:
LDs are dead. Lab just keep creeping up, Corbyn safe as houses. Remember when close to 25 was seen as common? Really is showing Ed M was worse than I thought. Cooper and the others won't challenge him if they get that high.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB poll (changes since last week)
Con 46 (nc) Lab 32 (+1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 7 (-1)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
UKIP score way too high though.
OT Blimey, just seem just how many seats the LDs held in the SW in 2010, and how unlikely they are to make inroads this time. Rough times.
But then the LDs were swept away and the Tory majority in 2015 was 20,268!
I recall reading CCHQ asked Annunziata if she could go by Nancy instead, and she said no. I hope that story is true.
(hell, it might be for all I know, although I picture it as a quintessential Toryish Shire)0 -
My view FWIW is that Brexit will shrink the tax base, particularly from high tax paying financial services companies at the same time as more demands will be made on the public purse for influence buying, not just with the EU. This will squeeze funding for problems that can be substantially addressed by throwing money at them, including social and health care.Fysics_Teacher said:FPT and for SouthamObserver:
How do you feel about companies? Google, for instance, is notorious for not paying a huge amount in tax, and so by your definition not a wealth creator, but it has utterly transformed the average persons access to information. I often tell classes that the iPad they have on their desk gives them access in a much easier way to more information than I had available to me when I was at university with a copyright library across the road. Similarly Apple with iTunes U. Surely that is adding a huge amount of value?0 -
He's just following his leader's example.nunu said:0 -
Hallam really is super-rich, though. Not just super-rich compared to the rest of Sheffield, but rich like South West Surrey or Hertsmere. Clegg suits it far better than Corbyn.Danny565 said:
My guess is that, even though Hallam has quite Corbyn-friendly demographics, the Labour vote really did max out there in 2015. There surely will have been some people there in 2015 who would've voted LD anywhere else, but just voted Lab to try to get Clegg out. That surely will be lessened this time since, while the LDs are irrelevant, Clegg isn't really "toxic" anymore.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.0 -
What ORB poll ?0
-
I continue to maintain that Labour won't even make 30%, and that they're being over-counted: given the copious amounts of data from the secondary questions, most of which is appalling for Labour, the notion that they'll still end up doing about as well as they did under EdM is somewhat difficult to swallow. Ditto the suggestion that the Lib Dems are virtually static relative to their 2015 position.Sean_F said:WRT the ORB poll, the Conservatives are up 4% on the start of the campaign, Labour up 1%.
For Labour to win 30% or so means very little if the Conservatives are close to 50%.
Meanwhile...
https://twitter.com/ElectionsEtc/status/8630578071548313600 -
FPT
"By the way - I assume people would agree that NHS fat cats who chose to spend zero on cyber protection notwithstanding past attacks and several warnings should be sacked."
Maybe, they should however I don't suppose that they are unusual in not planning for the worst. A few years ago I was involved in an initiative to try and get organisations, especially SMEs, to actively consider "disaster" planning. To consider what would happen if they were hit by a critical incident which involved the loss of access to data, premises, key staff or damage to their reputation (most SMEs hit by such an incident are out of business inside 18 months). It was an utter waste of time.
Most executives we spoke to, including some in pretty large companies, would accept that there was a risk but it wouldn't happen to them. Anyway there were more important things to think about and money spent on planning to cope with something that, probably, wouldn't happen was money wasted.
I expect the NHS executives who failed were just in the same category of managers as those we spoke - too busy to actually do their jobs. I should love to get a look at the risk registers of those NHS trusts who were hit by this attack. Indeed I wonder if, to pick a name at random from the list of affected trusts, the London North West Healthcare Trust even has an up to date risk register.0 -
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/863351463829020672surbiton said:What ORB poll ?
0 -
That seems highly likely to me. The extra £350 million a week that leaving the EU is supposed to deliver to the NHS will end up being spent on current liabilities for this reason.FF43 said:
My view FWIW is that Brexit will shrink the tax base, particularly from high tax paying financial services companies at the same time as more demands will be made on the public purse for influence buying, not just with the EU. This will squeeze funding for problems that can be substantially addressed by throwing money at them, including social and health care.Fysics_Teacher said:FPT and for SouthamObserver:
How do you feel about companies? Google, for instance, is notorious for not paying a huge amount in tax, and so by your definition not a wealth creator, but it has utterly transformed the average persons access to information. I often tell classes that the iPad they have on their desk gives them access in a much easier way to more information than I had available to me when I was at university with a copyright library across the road. Similarly Apple with iTunes U. Surely that is adding a huge amount of value?
-1 -
On the other hand, Google seem to have reduced their Corporation tax bill by paying their staff more, probably resulting in even more money going to the exchequer. On the subject of trademarks etc, surely even the most swivel-eyed libertarian would say that maintaining the rule of law is, after defence of the realm, the most important job of government.SouthamObserver said:
It is. And they are making huge profits as a result. I would argue that they should be paying a lot more tax as they benefit massively from the investments that governments make in a wide variety of areas - and, what's more - they need prosperous, information-hungry, service and product consuming users. They also owe a lot of their success to state-guaranteed intellectual property rights. If Google lost the exclusive use if its trademarks, patents and copyrights it would very quickly find itself in a whole heap of trouble.Fysics_Teacher said:FPT and for SouthamObserver:
How do you feel about companies? Google, for instance, is notorious for not paying a huge amount in tax, and so by your definition not a wealth creator, but it has utterly transformed the average persons access to information. I often tell classes that the iPad they have on their desk gives them access in a much easier way to more information than I had available to me when I was at university with a copyright library across the road. Similarly Apple with iTunes U. Surely that is adding a huge amount of value?
I'm going to stop here because I've realised that I've forgotten what it is we are supposed to be arguing about: I suspect that we agree on more than we differ.0 -
One thing puzzles me. Why do they need to say things like this ? There are plenty of candidates who do not live in the constituency but promise to do so if elected.logical_song said:
He's just following his leader's example.nunu said:0 -
Like many Tory constituencies, it's picturesque but not especially wealthy.kle4 said:
A key demographic in Somerton and Frome, no doubt.Sean_F said:
I agree. But CCHQ thought it would sound more working class.JonCisBack said:
That's worse - sounds like she has 15 cats and smells of weeSean_F said:
They wanted her to run as Nancy Mogg.kle4 said:
Remarkable indeed. Locals really didn't like the coalition or really loved Cameron.JonCisBack said:
My fave LD South West statto seat is Somerton and Frome - 4 Lib Dem holds in 1997, 2001 & 2005 with sub 1000 majority, then in 2010 it went up to nearly 2000 (!) thanks to tactical voting (and the ridiculously named Annunziata Rees-Mogg got the highest number of votes for a losing candidate)kle4 said:
Some places perhaps. I'd be interested in an analysis, as they are standing down in some places they did very well, explicitly to help the local Brexity candidate in some cases. They got 18% in my area last time and aren't standing this time.isam said:
Kipper score should be roughly just over half of the VI score shouldn't it? Prob standing in places they are likely to do okkle4 said:
LDs are dead. Lab just keep creeping up, Corbyn safe as houses. Remember when close to 25 was seen as common? Really is showing Ed M was worse than I thought. Cooper and the others won't challenge him if they get that high.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB poll (changes since last week)
Con 46 (nc) Lab 32 (+1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 7 (-1)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
UKIP score way too high though.
OT Blimey, just seem just how many seats the LDs held in the SW in 2010, and how unlikely they are to make inroads this time. Rough times.
But then the LDs were swept away and the Tory majority in 2015 was 20,268!
I recall reading CCHQ asked Annunziata if she could go by Nancy instead, and she said no. I hope that story is true.
(hell, it might be for all I know, although I picture it as a quintessential Toryish Shire)
But, it's like Quintin Hogg wearing a cloth cap to appeal to Northern voters.0 -
Yeah yeah whateverSirNorfolkPassmore said:
They weren't given less prominence than the Lib Dems - both were classed as major parties, and received substantial coverage, debate slots and so on. For UKIP, their "major" status was based on recent elections and current polls; for the Lib Dems it was based on the fact they won around a quarter of the vote at the previous General Election and had a level of support likely to deliver Parliamentary seats again (which it did - fewer than they'd have liked but substantially more than UKIP).isam said:
At the last GE it was considered ok for UKIP to be given less coverage than the Lib Dems because the calculation used past votes rather than current opinion. That was obviously ridiculous as any fool could see UKIP were going to out poll the Lib Dems, so it seems strange that the Lib Dems are given more prominence again having got less than 2/3 UKIP vote in 2015. It isn't as if they are nailed on to improve on their 2015 vote, or are particularly relevantsurbiton said:
UKIP will also lose more votes than LD and SNP combined.isam said:More People voted for UKIP in 2015 than LD and SNP combined
The rules have changed a bit since so you are required to give due prominence taking into account both measures of past and current support. UKIP can point to the last General Election in terms of past support - although it was one where they got a lot of votes but just one MP. In terms of present support, they have nothing to say. The last electoral test, the local elections, were an unmitigated disaster. Most people in the UK won't even have the opportunity to vote for a UKIP candidate in the unlikely event they wanted to. And it's a near certainty that they will have fewer MPs than the Greens in the next Parliament (i.e. nil).
0 -
tsk SouthamSouthamObserver said:
It is. And they are making huge profits as a result. I would argue that they should be paying a lot more tax as they benefit massively from the investments that governments make in a wide variety of areas - and, what's more - they need prosperous, information-hungry, service and product consuming users. They also owe a lot of their success to state-guaranteed intellectual property rights. If Google lost the exclusive use if its trademarks, patents and copyrights it would very quickly find itself in a whole heap of trouble.Fysics_Teacher said:FPT and for SouthamObserver:
How do you feel about companies? Google, for instance, is notorious for not paying a huge amount in tax, and so by your definition not a wealth creator, but it has utterly transformed the average persons access to information. I often tell classes that the iPad they have on their desk gives them access in a much easier way to more information than I had available to me when I was at university with a copyright library across the road. Similarly Apple with iTunes U. Surely that is adding a huge amount of value?
the one year you havent given us a drought warning, there's a drought. :-)0 -
How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?
I can't remember anyone at PB.com *cough* complaining about the over-representation on TV of the LibDems compared with the two major parties.0 -
Ha, ha - I reckon you are probably right!Fysics_Teacher said:
On the other hand, Google seem to have reduced their Corporation tax bill by paying their staff more, probably resulting in even more money going to the exchequer. On the subject of trademarks etc, surely even the most swivel-eyed libertarian would say that maintaining the rule of law is, after defence of the realm, the most important job of government.SouthamObserver said:
It is. And they are making huge profits as a result. I would argue that they should be paying a lot more tax as they benefit massively from the investments that governments make in a wide variety of areas - and, what's more - they need prosperous, information-hungry, service and product consuming users. They also owe a lot of their success to state-guaranteed intellectual property rights. If Google lost the exclusive use if its trademarks, patents and copyrights it would very quickly find itself in a whole heap of trouble.Fysics_Teacher said:FPT and for SouthamObserver:
How do you feel about companies? Google, for instance, is notorious for not paying a huge amount in tax, and so by your definition not a wealth creator, but it has utterly transformed the average persons access to information. I often tell classes that the iPad they have on their desk gives them access in a much easier way to more information than I had available to me when I was at university with a copyright library across the road. Similarly Apple with iTunes U. Surely that is adding a huge amount of value?
I'm going to stop here because I've realised that I've forgotten what it is we are supposed to be arguing about: I suspect that we agree on more than we differ.
0 -
I wouldn't say that at all. There are pockets of big, big money and some very well off pensioners. But Somerton and Frome towns are slightly Green-y, not hugely rich market towns, there are a lot of traditional rural working class/laborers about etc. It isn't well enough located to be commuter-belt rich.kle4 said:
A key demographic in Somerton and Frome, no doubt.Sean_F said:
I agree. But CCHQ thought it would sound more working class.JonCisBack said:
That's worse - sounds like she has 15 cats and smells of weeSean_F said:
They wanted her to run as Nancy Mogg.kle4 said:
Remarkable indeed. Locals really didn't like the coalition or really loved Cameron.JonCisBack said:
My fave LD South West statto seat is Somerton and Frome - 4 Lib Dem holds in 1997, 2001 & 2005 with sub 1000 majority, then in 2010 it went up to nearly 2000 (!) thanks to tactical voting (and the ridiculously named Annunziata Rees-Mogg got the highest number of votes for a losing candidate)kle4 said:
Some places perhaps. I'd be interested in an analysis, as they are standing down in some places they did very well, explicitly to help the local Brexity candidate in some cases. They got 18% in my area last time and aren't standing this time.isam said:
Kipper score should be roughly just over half of the VI score shouldn't it? Prob standing in places they are likely to do okkle4 said:
LDs are dead. Lab just keep creeping up, Corbyn safe as houses. Remember when close to 25 was seen as common? Really is showing Ed M was worse than I thought. Cooper and the others won't challenge him if they get that high.TheScreamingEagles said:ORB poll (changes since last week)
Con 46 (nc) Lab 32 (+1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 7 (-1)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/13/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-conservatives-lead-across-social/
UKIP score way too high though.
OT Blimey, just seem just how many seats the LDs held in the SW in 2010, and how unlikely they are to make inroads this time. Rough times.
But then the LDs were swept away and the Tory majority in 2015 was 20,268!
I recall reading CCHQ asked Annunziata if she could go by Nancy instead, and she said no. I hope that story is true.
(hell, it might be for all I know, although I picture it as a quintessential Toryish Shire)0 -
And if a B&B can be the address, can they not use it and ask for the SONP to just say 'address in the x constituency'? What are the rules on not including the actual address, just stating it is in a particular constituency?surbiton said:
One thing puzzles me. Why do they need to say things like this ? There are plenty of candidates who do not live in the constituency but promise to do so if elected.logical_song said:
He's just following his leader's example.nunu said:0 -
Bit surprised that the Tory lead with C2's is smaller than AB. Also guessing, the Tory vote is about 43%/44%Black_Rook said:0 -
Yes, without having looked this up, I'd guess the constituency with the big student population is Sheffield Central rather than Sheffield Hallam.Sean_F said:
Hallam really is super-rich, though. Not just super-rich compared to the rest of Sheffield, but rich like South West Surrey or Hertsmere. Clegg suits it far better than Corbyn.Danny565 said:
My guess is that, even though Hallam has quite Corbyn-friendly demographics, the Labour vote really did max out there in 2015. There surely will have been some people there in 2015 who would've voted LD anywhere else, but just voted Lab to try to get Clegg out. That surely will be lessened this time since, while the LDs are irrelevant, Clegg isn't really "toxic" anymore.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.0 -
Betters predicting worse for Labour than any polling model so far it seemsBlack_Rook said:Sean_F said:WRT the ORB poll, the Conservatives are up 4% on the start of the campaign, Labour up 1%.
For Labour to win 30% or so means very little if the Conservatives are close to 50%.
Meanwhile...
https://twitter.com/ElectionsEtc/status/8630578071548313600 -
Didn't realise you were a teenager.isam said:
Yeah yeah whateverSirNorfolkPassmore said:
They weren't given less prominence than the Lib Dems - both were classed as major parties, and received substantial coverage, debate slots and so on. For UKIP, their "major" status was based on recent elections and current polls; for the Lib Dems it was based on the fact they won around a quarter of the vote at the previous General Election and had a level of support likely to deliver Parliamentary seats again (which it did - fewer than they'd have liked but substantially more than UKIP).isam said:
At the last GE it was considered ok for UKIP to be given less coverage than the Lib Dems because the calculation used past votes rather than current opinion. That was obviously ridiculous as any fool could see UKIP were going to out poll the Lib Dems, so it seems strange that the Lib Dems are given more prominence again having got less than 2/3 UKIP vote in 2015. It isn't as if they are nailed on to improve on their 2015 vote, or are particularly relevantsurbiton said:
UKIP will also lose more votes than LD and SNP combined.isam said:More People voted for UKIP in 2015 than LD and SNP combined
The rules have changed a bit since so you are required to give due prominence taking into account both measures of past and current support. UKIP can point to the last General Election in terms of past support - although it was one where they got a lot of votes but just one MP. In terms of present support, they have nothing to say. The last electoral test, the local elections, were an unmitigated disaster. Most people in the UK won't even have the opportunity to vote for a UKIP candidate in the unlikely event they wanted to. And it's a near certainty that they will have fewer MPs than the Greens in the next Parliament (i.e. nil).0 -
One of the reasons I keep coming back here is reasonably civilised discussions. I even occasionally read points of view that make me think about my own prejudices. I don't change them, of course, but I do think about them.SouthamObserver said:
Ha, ha - I reckon you are probably right!Fysics_Teacher said:
On the other hand, Google seem to have reduced their Corporation tax bill by paying their staff more, probably resulting in even more money going to the exchequer. On the subject of trademarks etc, surely even the most swivel-eyed libertarian would say that maintaining the rule of law is, after defence of the realm, the most important job of government.SouthamObserver said:
It is. And they are making huge profits as a result. I would argue that they should be paying a lot more tax as they benefit massively from the investments that governments make in a wide variety of areas - and, what's more - they need prosperous, information-hungry, service and product consuming users. They also owe a lot of their success to state-guaranteed intellectual property rights. If Google lost the exclusive use if its trademarks, patents and copyrights it would very quickly find itself in a whole heap of trouble.Fysics_Teacher said:FPT and for SouthamObserver:
How do you feel about companies? Google, for instance, is notorious for not paying a huge amount in tax, and so by your definition not a wealth creator, but it has utterly transformed the average persons access to information. I often tell classes that the iPad they have on their desk gives them access in a much easier way to more information than I had available to me when I was at university with a copyright library across the road. Similarly Apple with iTunes U. Surely that is adding a huge amount of value?
I'm going to stop here because I've realised that I've forgotten what it is we are supposed to be arguing about: I suspect that we agree on more than we differ.0 -
Remember the 'day that the polls turned' in 2015. I think Scrapheap still uses that headline as his avatar. Labour were on c. 37% then.kle4 said:
Betters predicting worse for Labour than any polling model so far it seemsBlack_Rook said:Sean_F said:WRT the ORB poll, the Conservatives are up 4% on the start of the campaign, Labour up 1%.
For Labour to win 30% or so means very little if the Conservatives are close to 50%.
Meanwhile...
https://twitter.com/ElectionsEtc/status/8630578071548313600 -
The thing is though that Sheffield Hallam doesn't actually have THAT many students - it's a "university seat" in the sense that lots of academics who work at Sheffield Uni live there.kle4 said:
They say students are getting over that because of Brexit, and I'm told he is actually reasonably popular in the seat, but frankly I have my doubts, I think he is in real trouble once again, and he may hold, but it'll be tight again - Labour almost snatched it last time, students apparently like Corbyn, and the Tories won't help Clegg this time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
On the other hand, Leeds North West actually does have an incredibly high number of students, which is why I think that's a better chance of a Labour gain.0 -
Ahh! I need Tories 400+ to get a decent win.kle4 said:
Betters predicting worse for Labour than any polling model so far it seemsBlack_Rook said:Sean_F said:WRT the ORB poll, the Conservatives are up 4% on the start of the campaign, Labour up 1%.
For Labour to win 30% or so means very little if the Conservatives are close to 50%.
Meanwhile...
https://twitter.com/ElectionsEtc/status/8630578071548313600 -
More likely it will be full of doting Bunny La Roche types.Essexit said:
One or two Falklands veterans or relatives of IRA victims in the audience should do the trick.kle4 said:
One would hope. But he might pull his 'confused, gentle soul' thing, which works remarkably well. I hope he loses his cool - when he does, its quite something.Ishmael_Z said:I expect the Corbyn QT to cost Labour badly.
0 -
Yes, one of the universities is located there: the one that isn't called Sheffield Hallam! As I said below Sheffield Central is the constituency with the biggest student population - hence, it being fertile ground for the greens.Danny565 said:
The thing is though that Sheffield Hallam doesn't actually have THAT many students - it's a "university seat" in the sense that lots of academics who work at Sheffield Uni live there.kle4 said:
They say students are getting over that because of Brexit, and I'm told he is actually reasonably popular in the seat, but frankly I have my doubts, I think he is in real trouble once again, and he may hold, but it'll be tight again - Labour almost snatched it last time, students apparently like Corbyn, and the Tories won't help Clegg this time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
On the other hand, Leeds North West actually does have an incredibly high number of students, which is why I think that's a better chance of a Labour gain.0 -
It might be that the student fees thing is being over done. Most current students were no older than 15 when they were increased to their current level and probably have no recollection of the arguments such as they were at the time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
Young people are remarkably good at dealing with life as it is rather than how their elders think it should be. Certainly the level of fees is not an issue for my son and his friends (though they have things to say about value for money, but that is a different issue). I think TwistedFireStopper, gent of this parish, posted on here last month that he has two sons at Uni neither of whom are concerned about fees.
I wonder if too much is being made about a subject by people who are not actually affected by it.0 -
But surely the best chance of a Labour gain in Leeds was in 2015? Students may or may not STILL be angry about fees... but is there any real risk they will be MORE angry than in 2015?Danny565 said:
The thing is though that Sheffield Hallam doesn't actually have THAT many students - it's a "university seat" in the sense that lots of academics who work at Sheffield Uni live there.kle4 said:
They say students are getting over that because of Brexit, and I'm told he is actually reasonably popular in the seat, but frankly I have my doubts, I think he is in real trouble once again, and he may hold, but it'll be tight again - Labour almost snatched it last time, students apparently like Corbyn, and the Tories won't help Clegg this time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
On the other hand, Leeds North West actually does have an incredibly high number of students, which is why I think that's a better chance of a Labour gain.
I know Corbynites would say Jezmania is sweeping the campuses... but I'm not sure the evidence on that is terribly compelling (esp post Brexit).0 -
A fair point. Although the polls never really stayed at that level, as I recall, whereas the circa 30s we've been seeing have been.ThomasNashe said:
Remember the 'day that the polls turned' in 2015. I think Scrapheap still uses that headline as his avatar. Labour were on c. 37% then.kle4 said:
Betters predicting worse for Labour than any polling model so far it seemsBlack_Rook said:Sean_F said:WRT the ORB poll, the Conservatives are up 4% on the start of the campaign, Labour up 1%.
For Labour to win 30% or so means very little if the Conservatives are close to 50%.
Meanwhile...
https://twitter.com/ElectionsEtc/status/8630578071548313600 -
I wouldn't have thought so, but then you'd assume any of 'The Survivors' of the LDs in 2015 would be safe now as that was surely their lowest ebb, and yet 3-4 are seen as being under serious threat (partly due to Brexit in fairness).SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But surely the best chance of a Labour gain in Leeds was in 2015? Students may or may not STILL be angry about fees... but is there any real risk they will be MORE angry than in 2015?Danny565 said:
The thing is though that Sheffield Hallam doesn't actually have THAT many students - it's a "university seat" in the sense that lots of academics who work at Sheffield Uni live there.kle4 said:
They say students are getting over that because of Brexit, and I'm told he is actually reasonably popular in the seat, but frankly I have my doubts, I think he is in real trouble once again, and he may hold, but it'll be tight again - Labour almost snatched it last time, students apparently like Corbyn, and the Tories won't help Clegg this time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
On the other hand, Leeds North West actually does have an incredibly high number of students, which is why I think that's a better chance of a Labour gain.0 -
I'm trying to stay clear of bets on overall seat numbers - lost money to JohnnyJimmy on that front last time. Tories below 300, what was I thinking?rottenborough said:
Ahh! I need Tories 400+ to get a decent win.kle4 said:
Betters predicting worse for Labour than any polling model so far it seemsBlack_Rook said:Sean_F said:WRT the ORB poll, the Conservatives are up 4% on the start of the campaign, Labour up 1%.
For Labour to win 30% or so means very little if the Conservatives are close to 50%.
Meanwhile...
https://twitter.com/ElectionsEtc/status/8630578071548313600 -
Down to herding on PB.com?kle4 said:
Betters predicting worse for Labour than any polling model so far it seemsBlack_Rook said:Sean_F said:WRT the ORB poll, the Conservatives are up 4% on the start of the campaign, Labour up 1%.
For Labour to win 30% or so means very little if the Conservatives are close to 50%.
Meanwhile...
https://twitter.com/ElectionsEtc/status/8630578071548313600 -
When someone quotes a betting price, and your response is "Buying Opportunity", what do you mean by it?logical_song said:
Didn't realise you were a teenager.isam said:
Yeah yeah whateverSirNorfolkPassmore said:
They weren't given less prominence than the Lib Dems - both were classed as major parties, and received substantial coverage, debate slots and so on. For UKIP, their "major" status was based on recent elections and current polls; for the Lib Dems it was based on the fact they won around a quarter of the vote at the previous General Election and had a level of support likely to deliver Parliamentary seats again (which it did - fewer than they'd have liked but substantially more than UKIP).isam said:
At the last GE it was considered ok for UKIP to be given less coverage than the Lib Dems because the calculation used past votes rather than current opinion. That was obviously ridiculous as any fool could see UKIP were going to out poll the Lib Dems, so it seems strange that the Lib Dems are given more prominence again having got less than 2/3 UKIP vote in 2015. It isn't as if they are nailed on to improve on their 2015 vote, or are particularly relevantsurbiton said:
UKIP will also lose more votes than LD and SNP combined.isam said:More People voted for UKIP in 2015 than LD and SNP combined
The rules have changed a bit since so you are required to give due prominence taking into account both measures of past and current support. UKIP can point to the last General Election in terms of past support - although it was one where they got a lot of votes but just one MP. In terms of present support, they have nothing to say. The last electoral test, the local elections, were an unmitigated disaster. Most people in the UK won't even have the opportunity to vote for a UKIP candidate in the unlikely event they wanted to. And it's a near certainty that they will have fewer MPs than the Greens in the next Parliament (i.e. nil).
You said it doesn't mean you are recommending a bet...0 -
In this particular case there seems to have been a lot of tactical voting by Conservatives in 2015, and this might not be the case this time round.kle4 said:
I wouldn't have thought so, but then you'd assume any of 'The Survivors' of the LDs in 2015 would be safe now as that was surely their lowest ebb, and yet 3-4 are seen as being under serious threat (partly due to Brexit in fairness).SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But surely the best chance of a Labour gain in Leeds was in 2015? Students may or may not STILL be angry about fees... but is there any real risk they will be MORE angry than in 2015?Danny565 said:
The thing is though that Sheffield Hallam doesn't actually have THAT many students - it's a "university seat" in the sense that lots of academics who work at Sheffield Uni live there.kle4 said:
They say students are getting over that because of Brexit, and I'm told he is actually reasonably popular in the seat, but frankly I have my doubts, I think he is in real trouble once again, and he may hold, but it'll be tight again - Labour almost snatched it last time, students apparently like Corbyn, and the Tories won't help Clegg this time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
On the other hand, Leeds North West actually does have an incredibly high number of students, which is why I think that's a better chance of a Labour gain.0 -
I don't think tuition fees will be a big deal for students this time, but also frankly I don't think Brexit will be that big a deal for students either: the people who are still wanting to reverse the referendum result tend to be slightly older "liberal intelligentsia" types, I think.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But surely the best chance of a Labour gain in Leeds was in 2015? Students may or may not STILL be angry about fees... but is there any real risk they will be MORE angry than in 2015?Danny565 said:
The thing is though that Sheffield Hallam doesn't actually have THAT many students - it's a "university seat" in the sense that lots of academics who work at Sheffield Uni live there.kle4 said:
They say students are getting over that because of Brexit, and I'm told he is actually reasonably popular in the seat, but frankly I have my doubts, I think he is in real trouble once again, and he may hold, but it'll be tight again - Labour almost snatched it last time, students apparently like Corbyn, and the Tories won't help Clegg this time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
On the other hand, Leeds North West actually does have an incredibly high number of students, which is why I think that's a better chance of a Labour gain.
I know Corbynites would say Jezmania is sweeping the campuses... but I'm not sure the evidence on that is terribly compelling (esp post Brexit).
There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that young people's voter registration is going through the roof this time. That isn't going to help Labour that much under FPTP since they already hold most seats with high concentrations of young people (outside of Scotland) anyway, but Leeds NW is one of the exceptions.0 -
Not sure Tories anywhere will be voting tactically this time - even in Scotland where it would be most beneficial to do so, optimism is so high (and an overall win expected), so stay at home even at the cost of Labour/SNP getting in this time.Fysics_Teacher said:
In this particular case there seems to have been a lot of tactical voting by Conservatives in 2015, and this might not be the case this time round.kle4 said:
I wouldn't have thought so, but then you'd assume any of 'The Survivors' of the LDs in 2015 would be safe now as that was surely their lowest ebb, and yet 3-4 are seen as being under serious threat (partly due to Brexit in fairness).SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But surely the best chance of a Labour gain in Leeds was in 2015? Students may or may not STILL be angry about fees... but is there any real risk they will be MORE angry than in 2015?Danny565 said:
The thing is though that Sheffield Hallam doesn't actually have THAT many students - it's a "university seat" in the sense that lots of academics who work at Sheffield Uni live there.kle4 said:
They say students are getting over that because of Brexit, and I'm told he is actually reasonably popular in the seat, but frankly I have my doubts, I think he is in real trouble once again, and he may hold, but it'll be tight again - Labour almost snatched it last time, students apparently like Corbyn, and the Tories won't help Clegg this time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
On the other hand, Leeds North West actually does have an incredibly high number of students, which is why I think that's a better chance of a Labour gain.0 -
I think, Mr. 565, that many of those students in Leeds NW will actually have buggered off home by 8th June. So I am not sure, that even if they are registered, which most will not be, how many will be there to vote. Probably not enough to make a difference one way or the other.Danny565 said:
The thing is though that Sheffield Hallam doesn't actually have THAT many students - it's a "university seat" in the sense that lots of academics who work at Sheffield Uni live there.kle4 said:
They say students are getting over that because of Brexit, and I'm told he is actually reasonably popular in the seat, but frankly I have my doubts, I think he is in real trouble once again, and he may hold, but it'll be tight again - Labour almost snatched it last time, students apparently like Corbyn, and the Tories won't help Clegg this time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
On the other hand, Leeds North West actually does have an incredibly high number of students, which is why I think that's a better chance of a Labour gain.0 -
Students may not be voting in their university constituency this time. At my university half the students will have already completed their exams and gone home/travelling. Sheffield Hallam univerisiy' s end of term is next weekend!Danny565 said:
I don't think tuition fees will be a big deal for students this time, but also frankly I don't think Brexit will be that big a deal for students either: the people who are still wanting to reverse the referendum result tend to be slightly older "liberal intelligentsia" types, I think.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But surely the best chance of a Labour gain in Leeds was in 2015? Students may or may not STILL be angry about fees... but is there any real risk they will be MORE angry than in 2015?Danny565 said:
The thing is though that Sheffield Hallam doesn't actually have THAT many students - it's a "university seat" in the sense that lots of academics who work at Sheffield Uni live there.kle4 said:
They say students are getting over that because of Brexit, and I'm told he is actually reasonably popular in the seat, but frankly I have my doubts, I think he is in real trouble once again, and he may hold, but it'll be tight again - Labour almost snatched it last time, students apparently like Corbyn, and the Tories won't help Clegg this time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
On the other hand, Leeds North West actually does have an incredibly high number of students, which is why I think that's a better chance of a Labour gain.
I know Corbynites would say Jezmania is sweeping the campuses... but I'm not sure the evidence on that is terribly compelling (esp post Brexit).
There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that young people's voter registration is going through the roof this time. That isn't going to help Labour that much under FPTP since they already hold most seats with high concentrations of young people (outside of Scotland) anyway, but Leeds NW is one of the exceptions.0 -
I really hope that is true. Young people need to vote. And I certainly wouldn't assume that increased turnout among the young would necessarily benefit Corbyn.Danny565 said:
I don't think tuition fees will be a big deal for students this time, but also frankly I don't think Brexit will be that big a deal for students either: the people who are still wanting to reverse the referendum result tend to be slightly older "liberal intelligentsia" types, I think.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
But surely the best chance of a Labour gain in Leeds was in 2015? Students may or may not STILL be angry about fees... but is there any real risk they will be MORE angry than in 2015?Danny565 said:
The thing is though that Sheffield Hallam doesn't actually have THAT many students - it's a "university seat" in the sense that lots of academics who work at Sheffield Uni live there.kle4 said:
They say students are getting over that because of Brexit, and I'm told he is actually reasonably popular in the seat, but frankly I have my doubts, I think he is in real trouble once again, and he may hold, but it'll be tight again - Labour almost snatched it last time, students apparently like Corbyn, and the Tories won't help Clegg this time.MonikerDiCanio said:
I thought tuition fee traitor Clegg was despised by students.YBarddCwsc said:
It is a University seat, Clegg’s Euro-philia will surely help.Fysics_Teacher said:
I'm on Labour to beat Clegg at 30-1. I think I'll let that stand.Danny565 said:Worth saying that the ORB poll has a small LD->Lab swing from 2015.
Pile on Lab Gain Leeds North West.
I think he’ll hold easily.
On the other hand, Leeds North West actually does have an incredibly high number of students, which is why I think that's a better chance of a Labour gain.
I know Corbynites would say Jezmania is sweeping the campuses... but I'm not sure the evidence on that is terribly compelling (esp post Brexit).
There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that young people's voter registration is going through the roof this time. That isn't going to help Labour that much under FPTP since they already hold most seats with high concentrations of young people (outside of Scotland) anyway, but Leeds NW is one of the exceptions.0
This discussion has been closed.