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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Memories of Thatcher could make it harder for Tories to win in the North
One of the Conservative Party’s secret weapons to winning more votes in the North of England is a young man called David Skelton. Skelton is from the North East and has an impeccable feel for the North in a way few Conservative strategists do.
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More good news to lighten the sepuchral gloom
Construction output has been a drag on the economy for most of 2012. The February figures released by ONS today show that February output grew by 5.5% over January even though figures are still down on a yearly basis.
This is a promising reversal of previous trends and is yet another sign that the economy is slowly turning around.
The ONS reported increases in output for nearly all sectors, with the exception of "private commercial other new work” which showed a fall of 0.5%.
With bids now going out for the construction of a Thatcher mausoleum and multiple civic memorials to the Iron Lady, we can confidently expect this mini-boom to continue through the year.
https://twitter.com/220_d_92_20
You say, "For many our towns, cities and former coalfield areas felt like the victim of an occupying force." Please will you expand on this thought.
The Conservatives do have a problem in the north, and it's the one that David Skelton mentions, of being seen as the party of the rich. Come to that, it's the Conservatives' weakness in parts of the south too.
The Conservatives do need to think about how to address that. But Margaret Thatcher is not a particularly big part of the problem. She has now entered into history. Indeed, the Conservatives need to think about how to re-engage with those less affluent voters (and their children) who were given opportunity and inspiration in the 1980s. It's something to which the current Conservative leadership have paid nothing like enough attention to date.
FTP btw from a long time lurker...
Huge area's of southern England have no labour representation either...
Labour have a southern problem, tories have a northern problem...same as it ever was.
Personally, I believe that no party can take it's heartland vote completely for granted.
It is really hard to organise an insurgent campaign from a position of low activity in an opponents seat. But that really is a technical constraint. If a party discovers a way to make that easier, they could breakthrough.
Many heartland safe seats are vulnerable IMO. Outside marginals like Eastleigh, incumbent activity is almost non-existent or stale, leaving the seat open to attack.
And it's not just over-50s, incidentally. Anyone in their mid-thirties or above will have clear memories of living under Thatcherism if only as a child, and the effect it had on their family and community. It will even have a degree of resonance for those a bit younger who grew up in the Major years.
Don't let the buggers grind you down!
Even assuming that a dose of Thatcherism was needed to shake Britain out of its 70's torpor, what Thatcher - and to my mind - most politicians since then (of whichever party) have failed to grapple with is how to revive areas which have lost much of their previous industrial base, how to harness the skills and talents of people in those communities (rather than simply telling them to leave), how to value the local pride and sense of community that many have about their homes and how to do so in a tone which is not antagonistic but not condescending either.
Self-reliance, community spirit, looking out for others are - or were - Tory virtues as much as Labour ones so there is no reason why an authentic Northern Tory voice could not represent these areas. It's just that such voices have been few and far between and the Tories have, to a great extent, lost touch with a large part of their own political heritage. There are few regionally based politicians (Ken Clarke is one, Blunkett another). Where is the next generation coming from?
So long as parties impose relative youngsters from outside this sense of disconnect will continue and, currently, it will harm the Tories more than Labour. By contrast with the past, they - even more than Labour - are now seen as a very Southern English party. Thatcher understoon Basildon man very well indeed. Who does Cameron understand? Who in the Tory party understands people in the Lake District or Leeds or Hull or Liverpool?
It reads:
The total volume of construction output fell by 5.5% comparing February 2013 with January 2013, in constant prices, not seasonally adjusted.
Those economists who downloaded the report and read its contents will note the correct figures:
Comparing February 2013 with January 2013 the total volume of construction output increased by 5.5%. There were increases in output for nearly all sectors, with the exception of private commercial other new work which showed a fall of 0.5%.
So not so much "spin" tim as a subtle plan by the ONS to sort the lazy economists from the industrious.
Which are you?
The population of these Northern towns is dropping - take South Shields - down from 65,773 63,765 between 2000 and 2010 - those with any nous are fleeing south.
http://youtu.be/B9_ToBUY8I0?t=5m42s
Greece was originally unbelievable - then became the norm.
Which shows how shocking the Cypriot situation is.
I guess if you have €100k in the bank you might want to stay in - but other than that there are surely few benefits left.
A poll by the SWG Institute gave Berlusconi's coalition 32.4 percent of the vote, compared to Pier Luigi Bersani's centre-left forces at 30.0 percent.
The anti-establishment Five Star Movement would get 24.0 percent.
The poll, based on 1,500 respondents and with a margin of error of 2.9 percent, indicated that support for the centre-left and the Five Star Movement has ebbed since February 24-25 elections while backing for Berlusconi has risen."
Which suggests that Grillo is shooting himself in the foot by refusing to do at least a limited deal with the centre-left. Having said that, presumably any new election would take place under a new and marginally less bonkers electoral law, so Berlusconi's narrow plurality may not be as significant as it appears.
http://touchstoneblog.org.uk/2013/04/eight-prime-ministers-and-the-economy/
Rather shoots down the claim that Thatcher "saved us" from anything.
For the Tories to re-engage they have to show a road to success that doesn't go through being born with a silver spoon. It is why it is such a tragedy for the party that David Davis is too flaky and doesn't have the X factor to match his backstory. It is also why it is a mistake for Cameron to continue to have Osborne as his partner at the top.
Betting PostI've backed Haase to beat Klizan in the Grand Prix Hassan II at 2.7. They've met twice before, Haase won both times and, on clay (which the the tournament is), Haase won 6-3, 6-3 in the prior meeting.
The discussion about Labour in Eastleigh was all about where the mid-term protest vote would go. Labour needed to stand a good candidate and fight the constituency in order to protect its position as the sole official opposition party.
Instead it stood a joke as its candidate and UKIP won the protest votes.
In South Shields, the question is whether there will be any leakage of the protest vote against the Government parties away from the official opposition party and if so by how much.
The eyes are on the potential damage that UKIP can wreak on Labour's sense of entitlement to the constituency and to its national role as an opposition of credibility.
Labour need not only to ward off the UKIP threat but post a significantly increased majority to convince.
We now await the campaign and result. Hiding the by election on 2nd May will at least give your boys a running start as will the already completed (?) mountain of postal votes.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jakewallissimons/100211882/the-new-conservative-election-broadcast-shows-that-there-is-all-to-play-for/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIZj0NzcjHQ&feature=youtu.be
On Henry's topic - I think the lack of movement in the polls we have seen underlines that its the economy that will shift VI - no one who on Sunday thought 'I love the Tories and admire Thatcher' has had their mind changed in the last few days, nor has the minds of those who loathe both...
So I'd expect them to be making the same points about their party in the coming by-election.
They can't have it both ways but then they try to.
For what it's worth unless you are in contention vote shares are irrelevant.
I was somewhat unsure about who to vote for on May 2nd.
Having seen the Conservative PPB, I am now convinced that I should vote Tory.
It was the deficit coming down by a third that was the eye-opener. I really must make a resolution not to listen to tim and BenM on economic stats in the future.
Apart from that....
In one of the fiercest attacks made against Mr Clegg’s leadership from his own side, Lord Greaves of Pendle warned of a “huge clash” between “the new risen saviour” Ryan Coetzee and the party’s old guard in the run-up to the next General Election.
Mr Coetzee, 40, was hired by the Deputy Prime Minister last year and receives a £110,000 salary at the taxpayer’s expense. He is considered one of the key figures responsible for transforming South Africa’s Democratic Alliance into the country’s main opposition party.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/9990166/Lib-Dems-face-political-suicide-over-new-strategist.html
"Beautiful girl crusty baked, young shoots, cream of vegetables "
pic.twitter.com/8EtRFIrAfy
Panic over!
sack him, sack the heretic...
Has the former Labour candidate for Eastleigh had anything to say about the late Margaret Thatcher.
As for Labour in Eastleigh, if they didn't mount a serious campaign, how can Ed Miliband claim that Labour stands for One Nation Britain?
It does make you wonder why the Eastleigh electorate spurned him in favour of Chris Huhne in 2005!
I hate to bring up that divisive word, class, but it is a fact of life and until these communities, and others, find some hope in policies directed towards them, then class will continue to divide britain like no other country in western europe.
Ovens, irons, kettles use much more than computers...blame Ed M, Chris Huhne, Ed Davey for levying green taxes.
Her effect on these communities has become the stuff of myth and legend (and gross exaggeration), and bears little resemblance to the truth, and no consideration whatsoever is given to what woud have happend in 1979 if labour had won. Woudl everything have been rosy? Would it f*ck.
We know that the deficit has only come down because the Tories stopped capital investment which also holed the entire construction industry below the line (and contributed to the double-dip and potentially triple-dip recessions).
We also know that deficit reduction has now stalled and that the nominal deficit will be stuck at £120billions for a couple of years, only falling due to some wild growth forecasts which are bound to be wrong.
A business repellent shadow business secretary,will he take up their invitation & mix with trash?
'London clubs today criticised under-fire Labour star Chuka Umunna claiming he is “out of touch” for saying West End nightspots are “full of trash”.
The owners of five clubs wrote to the shadow business secretary saying they were “appalled” at his comments and invited him for a night out to see what it was really like.
The open letter read: “The UK’s night-time economy is worth £66 billion every year. Mr Umunna criticises an industry which brings in millions of pounds to the capital and provides thousands of jobs.”
- Thatcher won plenty of these seats when she was alive, so it's difficult to see why she should prevent their being won now she's dead (and a quarter of a century after she left office).
- The Tories don't need to win many of the urban northern (and Scottish) seats, other than for a landslide. With only 20, they came close to a majority. it's the semi-rural / suburban seats that will decide who ends up in No 10.
- Thatcher's death and burial will be old news by May, never mind 2015.
- The valid points in Henry's article are about the Tories' trouble with women and minorities, and about being perceived as a party for a special interest (the rich), when Labour isn't so seen. They, however, don't have much to do with Thatcher.
The Tories need to fully modernise their party, to stand any chance of winning a majority. This is going to take a while, as I am not sure many older party members are that keen on change.
Overall, the Conservatives don't have that much difficulty winning working class support.
What's needed is a two-pronged strategy. Firstly, taking the fight to Labour and establishing how empty of solutions and in the pocket of special interests they are, and secondly, picking on some popular internal targets to recover the support of the working poor and moderately-off. I'd suggest bankers and benefits scroungers.
Want to have a bet on Osborne apologising to the House over the exchange with Reeves?
BBC says they will not play it in full...which is pretty pointless, you either ban it or play in full....what will they do? Play just Ding Dong and not The Witch is Dead?
Deal?
http://order-order.com/2013/04/12/the-wicked-witch-of-the-west-end/
BBC to play 'up to five seconds' of Ding Dong song http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-04-12/bbc-will-to-play-up-to-five-seconds-of-ding-dong-song/ … #Thatcher via @itvnews #DingDongThisIsAMess
http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2013/04/why-dr-kermit-gosnells-trial-should-be-a-front-page-story/274944/
Like you wont be calling for a national day of mourning when Tony goes!
That the Kids are still inclined to tweak the tail of the tiger is uplifting.
That they're doing it by handing cash to MegaCorp Inc, making rich people richer, is ironic as it's exactly what Thatcher would've wanted.
And the befuddled reaction of the mainstream Right, Left and Centre, who don't know whether to be Outraged or rise above it, is hilarious.
Ding dong!
There can be many theories for why it failed to get the coverage you might expect until now but I dont think pro-choice bias makes sense.
I forsee a funeral similar to that of Murphy in Samuel Beckett's eponymous novel. Murphy had been cremated and his ashes were placed in a paper bag and given to Cooper:
Some hours later, Cooper took the packet of ash from his pocket where earlier in the evening he had put it for greater security, and threw it angrily at a man who had given him great offence. It bounced and burst off the wall and onto the floor, where at once it became the object of much dribbling, passing, trapping, shooting, punching, heading and even some recognition from the gentleman’s code. By closing time the body, mind and soul of Murphy were freely distributed over the floor of the saloon, and before another dayspring greyened the earth, had been swept away with the sand, the beer, the butts, the glass, the matches, the spits, the vomit.
Now that would be a real send off. An Irish Ceremonial Funeral.
I'm not sure how much of an achievement that is. given that the ANC are still utterly dominant, and given that the New National Party gave up the ghost completely.
Perhaps it's not getting the coverage you want because people know that plankton will try to turn it into a political issue, thereby making the whole appalling thing a grotesque points-scoring exercise?
Tenuous links and attacks - who the fcuk cares when Parliament was recalled outside PB world for example.
"Let's just state the obvious: National political reporters are, by and large, socially liberal. We are more likely to know a gay couple than to know someone who owns an "assault weapon." We are, generally, pro-choice....There is a bubble. Horror stories of abortionists are less likely to permeate that bubble than, say, a story about a right-wing pundit attacking an abortionist who then claims to have gotten death threats.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2013/04/12/kermit_gosnell_the_alleged_mass_murderer_and_the_bored_media.html
So the 'bias' may be unconscious rather than deliberate - but it is curious that this baby charnel house has not received more coverage....
@Tim "David Cameron views Margaret Thatcher death song with 'personal distaste'"
Remember prisoners getting the vote made him feel "physically sick".
A bit of a wimp our PM.
This guy is as much an argument against abortion as Harold Shipman was against the practice of general medicine.
A bit of a wimp our PM."
Well said! Quite a few of the things that David Cameron has done in office make me feel physically sick, but I'd expect a Prime Minister to have a stronger constitution.
I'm surprised. Where did the 20% come from?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/poll/2013/apr/12/ding-dong-the-witch-is-dead
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2308143/Dr-Kermit-Gosnell-trial-Teen-intern-house-horrors-abortion-clinic-tells-heard-aborted-fetus-screeching.html
Interesting that its getting broader coverage over here than over there.....
And that cheers me up. It's almost as good as the day that Scargill was finally crushed.
Well that's certainly a forlorn hope, Cousin of Seth.
Could I just say that I'm not in favour of banning stuff, but my proposed ban on the Conservative Party is not really a ban, it's just basic common decency.
A serving police officer who sent a series of sickening tweets about the death of Margaret Thatcher has today resigned from his job at Scotland Yard.
Sergeant Jeremy Scott said he hoped the former prime minister’s death at the age of 87 was ‘painful and degrading’.
The 52-year-old Metropolitan Police officer also suggested the world would be a ‘better place’ if David Cameron, too, were dead.
Scotland Yard said today: 'The officer concerned, today submitted his resignation and it was accepted with immediate effect.' http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2307705/Scotland-Yard-sergeant-Jeremy-Scott-resigns-Margaret-Thatcher-degrading-painful-death-tweets.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
So Bob Sykes's position is defensible.
However, I disagree with it. The record is not intrinsically offensive. A section of the public are very keen to have their view heard, and they should be entitled to have it heard.
And while several thousand unsuspecting heterosexuals will have been introduced to the works of Judy Garland, there's no reason why the homosexual agenda should not be pursued further by making sure that millions of impressionable teenagers also get that pleasure.
But I don't think the state broadcaster, or any broadcaster for that matter, should play a song celebrating the death of a frail 87 year old woman 2 days before her funeral, regardless of whether it's in the hit parade.
It's nowhere near analagous to the Mohammed cartoons.