politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron’s first big decision – choosing his Prime Minister. Chr
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If you believe that you'll believe anything.TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON??*
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/8618937761718353920 -
Last time in Buckingham (I live in the constituency) the options were Bercow, Green and UKIP. If there were the same options this time I might well spoil my ballot paper.TheScreamingEagles said:
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal
I'd vote for a candidate that was standing purely to abolish the crazy system where we don't get a real choice on our MP.
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They'll emerge with 1 seat, East Lothian.tlg86 said:
If you believe that you'll believe anything.TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON??*
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/861893776171835392
I think the Tory tide will surge in Edi South...0 -
How about the HAB Party?TheScreamingEagles said:
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal0 -
Thanks for spotting that. The brief notes issues last night referred to a GB poll . Confusion resolved!CarlottaVance said:Quick note - the Survation Poll is a UK poll as it has NI in there...
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Final-GMB-GE2017-Poll-I-050517TOCH-1c0d0h5.pdf
I note that Survation has given data to a decimal point with the Tories on 46.8% and Labour on 30.2% so a UK lead of 16.6% - ie a swing of 5.05% from 2015. Tories & Labour also shown as very close in Scotland.0 -
There was an army of people hell bent on making Leave later impossible for the UK. Indeed, they thought it already was.ThreeQuidder said:
Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.Peter_the_Punter said:What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.0 -
Jezza is quite an effective rabble rouser, and seems to relish the opportunity to speak in public.Roger said:I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.
This could yet be an unexpected election.
Looking at the odds in places like Stoke Central doesn't convince me to re-stake my Macron winnings. The Tory landslide story seems oversold. I am looking for value in Labour defences now, at least in England.0 -
dyedwoolie said:
Tories up 1, labour up 5, Tory lead 6%MarqueeMark said:I missed the Welsh polling update yesterday - were they rowing back a bit from Tories Win Rhondda?
Ta muchly0 -
Does that mean he's a polytechnic maths teacher?TheScreamingEagles said:
He's a modern day polymath.RobD said:
He's already got seven jobs....TheScreamingEagles said:
I think we're looking at the next editor of The Times.FrancisUrquhart said:The Evening Standard appears to have become the official opposition. So far quite a bit more effectively than Team Twat.
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That's maybe ahead in one and behind in six?TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON??*
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/8618937761718353920 -
You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.Peter_the_Punter said:
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.
On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.
Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.
Ironic.0 -
I don't think people should look at where Theresa May goes as an indicator of where they are targettig. As other PBers can attest she is simply a politician that really gets stuck in. If there was a by-election in Glasgow's east end she would go there even though it would be a hopeless seat.SimonStClare said:Theresa May to give a campaign speech in York Central today. Labour MP Rachael Maskell has a majority of just under 7,000.
(none of this means ofcourse they are not targetting York central, a lot of graduates I would of thought tho).0 -
8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.
Some people needs lessons in expectations management.0 -
The last election showed that the tory leadership visit genuine target seats. I'd be mazed if this was any different. Every reason to think that York central is in play.nunu said:
I don't think people should look at where Theresa May goes as an indicator of where they are targettig. As other PBers can attest she is simply a politician that really gets stuck in. If there was a by-election in Glasgow's east end she would go there if though it would be a hopeless seat.SimonStClare said:Theresa May to give a campaign speech in York Central today. Labour MP Rachael Maskell has a majority of just under 7,000.
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It will be a very compromised Brexit, where we get less than we had before, still do most of what the EU asks us, have much less influence over what that is, and still pay a lot, possibly as much as before. The question to which I have never had a good answer to is, why are we doing this? The British people voted for it, so we are doing it. I get that, but it seems unsatisfactory.ThreeQuidder said:
Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.Peter_the_Punter said:What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.0 -
H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists.
From ITV’s Daniel Hewitt
Daniel Hewitt @DanielHewittITV
Many not the few, us v them, rich against the rest, greedy bankers, tax cheats, press barons - Jeremy Corbyn doubling down on his core vote. 11:42 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Manchester Evening News’ Jennifer Williams
Jennifer Williams✔@JenWilliamsMEN
Nothing about that speech was in any way designed to win over Tory voters or potential Tory voters - spoke to the core Labour electorate. 11:44 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Times’ Sam Coates
Sam Coates Times✔@SamCoatesTimes
Jeremy Corbyn campaign launch speech focuses on areas of overlap with Ed Miliband (banker/coropratebashing) rather than areas of difference. 11:46 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Mail’s James Tapsfield
James Tapsfield @JamesTapsfield
In case there were any lingering doubts, this speech confirms Corbyn's ambitions are entirely within Labour's core support. 11:40 AM - 9 May 20170 -
2,4 and 4 are not necessarily mutually exclusive - so Y2AVSLIFDOMMIGENTGladLibs ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal
Has a certain... well, if not ring, then dull clang.
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SLAB, SCON & SLID all surging !TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON??*
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/861893776171835392
At this rate the SNP are going to be lucky to hold on to 30 seats if the political commentators and party leaders are accurate !!0 -
So stand for Westminster, telling them that you're not doing it.FF43 said:
It will be a very compromised Brexit, where we get less than we had before, still do most of what the EU asks us, have much less influence over what that is, and still pay a lot, possibly as much as before. The question to which I have never had a good answer to is, why are we doing this? The British people voted for it, so we are doing it. I get that, but it seems unsatisfactory.ThreeQuidder said:
Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.Peter_the_Punter said:What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.0 -
V acute & interesting observation.MTimT said:
You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.Peter_the_Punter said:
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.
On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.
Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.
Ironic.0 -
It is seriously impressive how he manages to be wrong about everything, all the time.felix said:
I love him. All done with a straight face - there are no tanks in Baghdad - or today York Central.Casino_Royale said:
Phew. Most reassuring post I've read all day.Roger said:I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.
This could yet be an unexpected election.
A true feat of nature.0 -
You may even get SCons tactically voting Labour in those seats with a clothespeg on their nose, they think Corbyn is useless but they absolutely despise the SNPTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
felix said:
The last election showed that the tory leadership visit genuine target seats. I'd be mazed if this was any different. Every reason to think that York central is in play.nunu said:
I don't think people should look at where Theresa May goes as an indicator of where they are targettig. As other PBers can attest she is simply a politician that really gets stuck in. If there was a by-election in Glasgow's east end she would go there if though it would be a hopeless seat.SimonStClare said:Theresa May to give a campaign speech in York Central today. Labour MP Rachael Maskell has a majority of just under 7,000.
Indeed. Much snorting derision on here when I let it be known that after Torbay, Theresa May was visiting Yeovil.....0 -
You could call (3) "On, march!".TheScreamingEagles said:
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal0 -
I fear that's right. The way things stand Corbyn's Labour (*) are not going to do as bad as some (seemingly including some within the party) are claiming. It'll be bad, but expectations are so low that Corbyn might even be able to claim a victory.foxinsoxuk said:
Jezza is quite an effective rabble rouser, and seems to relish the opportunity to speak in public.Roger said:I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.
This could yet be an unexpected election.
Looking at the odds in places like Stoke Central doesn't convince me to re-stake my Macron winnings. The Tory landslide story seems oversold. I am looking for value in Labour defences now, at least in England.
Then again, my predictions wrt Scottish Labour before GE2015 were not exactly prescient ...
(*) Not that they'll brand it like that ...
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Absolutely.MarqueeMark said:
There was an army of people hell bent on making Leave later impossible for the UK. Indeed, they thought it already was.ThreeQuidder said:
Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.Peter_the_Punter said:What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
Technically, I suppose I haven't answered PtP's question - but that's because I dispute the premise of it, as the old deal was not going to be around forever.0 -
No - it means you can give him a single numeric problem and he can come up with several different answers - sort of Abbottlike.MarqueeMark said:
Does that mean he's a polytechnic maths teacher?TheScreamingEagles said:
He's a modern day polymath.RobD said:
He's already got seven jobs....TheScreamingEagles said:
I think we're looking at the next editor of The Times.FrancisUrquhart said:The Evening Standard appears to have become the official opposition. So far quite a bit more effectively than Team Twat.
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I liked this from an SNP ministercalum said:
SLAB, SCON & SLID all surging !TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON??*
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/861893776171835392
At this rate the SNP are going to be lucky to hold on to 30 seats if the political commentators and party leaders are accurate !!
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/8619199213909811200 -
Like it Tim.TOPPING said:
V acute & interesting observation.MTimT said:
You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.Peter_the_Punter said:
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.
On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.
Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.
Ironic.
And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.0 -
She also visited Leeds East. Burgon must be toast.MarqueeMark said:felix said:
The last election showed that the tory leadership visit genuine target seats. I'd be mazed if this was any different. Every reason to think that York central is in play.nunu said:
I don't think people should look at where Theresa May goes as an indicator of where they are targettig. As other PBers can attest she is simply a politician that really gets stuck in. If there was a by-election in Glasgow's east end she would go there if though it would be a hopeless seat.SimonStClare said:Theresa May to give a campaign speech in York Central today. Labour MP Rachael Maskell has a majority of just under 7,000.
Indeed. Much snorting derision on here when I let it be known that after Torbay, Theresa May was visiting Yeovil.....0 -
PS Yeovil was only won because Dave visited the seat and campaigned 200 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house.
So Ballsy.0 -
I agree - i'd expect 2/3 Labour tops 2 LDs tops and 4/5 Tory tops. anything more a bonus but there are some seriously large majorities to overcome.and Slab stupidly may not 'lend votes to SCon.calum said:
SLAB, SCON & SLID all surging !TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON??*
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/861893776171835392
At this rate the SNP are going to be lucky to hold on to 30 seats if the political commentators and party leaders are accurate !!0 -
Mr. Calum, you're going to need more Scotsmen so that there's enough voters for all the surging 0
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Only need 7 LDs to get the SNP into minority status...!TheScreamingEagles said:8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.
Some people needs lessons in expectations management.0 -
ITV News leading with the Conservative's energy announcement as a u-turn.
Not what May's team would have wanted.0 -
That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.Peter_the_Punter said:
Like it Tim.TOPPING said:
V acute & interesting observation.MTimT said:
You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.Peter_the_Punter said:
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.
On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.
Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.
Ironic.
And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
Oh and don't kill each other.0 -
0
-
9/1 with Skybet...ThreeQuidder said:
Only need 7 LDs to get the SNP into minority status...!TheScreamingEagles said:8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.
Some people needs lessons in expectations management.0 -
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/861894157069160449
East Lothian, I think, is better than evens. The others are heroic. The so-called Monklands McMafia in Lanarkshire are colourful. Labour weren't much better back in the day, but people may have forgotten about them ...0 -
Does it have an Imprint, and what does it say ?MrsB said:
Really? How does it help Corbyn? One more seat where Labour are waving the white flag.Sandpit said:
I'd have voted LD to give Zac the message in Richmond, but with this I'd now support him. How many others like me will be massively turned off by the idea that voting LD helps Corbyn?TheScreamingEagles said:
And it's one stakeboard, BTW.
Get a grip.0 -
7 LDs or SNP sub 30?foxinsoxuk said:
9/1 with Skybet...ThreeQuidder said:
Only need 7 LDs to get the SNP into minority status...!TheScreamingEagles said:8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.
Some people needs lessons in expectations management.0 -
Obviously. Hence Project Fear.Icarus said:
That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.Peter_the_Punter said:
Like it Tim.TOPPING said:
V acute & interesting observation.MTimT said:
You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.Peter_the_Punter said:
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.
On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.
Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.
Ironic.
And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
Oh and don't kill each other.0 -
"I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect"Peter_the_Punter said:
No, not at all.frpenkridge said:"It isn't snobbery, Ishmael.
Most Remainers would be aware that those who voted Leave tended to come from the segments of the population that would be most severely affected by Brexit, and viewed the irony with sympathy as well as sadness".
Condescension, then.
I'm really sorry that it happened, and am sure that those who suffer most will be those least able to cope with the consequences. I'm not one of those, but why shouldn't I sympathise with them? Sympathy isn't condescension.
And I hope I'm wrong. I'd be delighted to admit it, but so far I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect.
That should be the tag line under the site header0 -
Arthur_Penny said:
No - it means you can give him a single numeric problem and he can come up with several different answers - sort of Abbottlike.MarqueeMark said:
Does that mean he's a polytechnic maths teacher?TheScreamingEagles said:
He's a modern day polymath.RobD said:
He's already got seven jobs....TheScreamingEagles said:
I think we're looking at the next editor of The Times.FrancisUrquhart said:The Evening Standard appears to have become the official opposition. So far quite a bit more effectively than Team Twat.
He graduated from the Department of Experimental Mathematics at the University of Abbottabad.0 -
I can see the point of expectations management in local elections, as you want to shape the headlines the next day so it's, "Party X triumphs as net losses held to 600! Party Y's leader on the rack as failure to seize key target of Anytown mars 800 gains elsewhere!"TheScreamingEagles said:8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.
Some people needs lessons in expectations management.
But ultimately the General Election is the big one and you need to generate a bit of a feeling of momentum, especially if you're the insurgent. Tories could live with "Only 10 Scottish Tories as vaunted surge fails to materialise" as that means they'd have 10 MPs in Scotland and, by the time they are up for re-election, people have forgotten that it was seen as a bit of a disappointment.0 -
5) The Sartorially Challenged PartyTheScreamingEagles said:
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal
0 -
0
-
Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)SimonStClare said:H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists.
From ITV’s Daniel Hewitt
Daniel Hewitt @DanielHewittITV
Many not the few, us v them, rich against the rest, greedy bankers, tax cheats, press barons - Jeremy Corbyn doubling down on his core vote. 11:42 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Manchester Evening News’ Jennifer Williams
Jennifer Williams✔@JenWilliamsMEN
Nothing about that speech was in any way designed to win over Tory voters or potential Tory voters - spoke to the core Labour electorate. 11:44 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Times’ Sam Coates
Sam Coates Times✔@SamCoatesTimes
Jeremy Corbyn campaign launch speech focuses on areas of overlap with Ed Miliband (banker/coropratebashing) rather than areas of difference. 11:46 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Mail’s James Tapsfield
James Tapsfield @JamesTapsfield
In case there were any lingering doubts, this speech confirms Corbyn's ambitions are entirely within Labour's core support. 11:40 AM - 9 May 2017
It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...0 -
It is, at least as far as Con Party policy goes. It is deepliy disappointing. A rubbish policyJosiasJessop said:ITV News leading with the Conservative's energy announcement as a u-turn.
Not what May's team would have wanted.0 -
Losing a referendum seems to infect people with unfunny bitternessMonikerDiCanio said:
Mary Beard on Pink Floyd !TheScreamingEagles said:Chortle. I see George is enjoying himself at The Standard
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/861900570868809728
Irresistible.
Osborne's making a tit of himself at The Standard. The nasty little twerp really thinks he's funny.0 -
Labour needs to do worse under Corbyn than it did under Miliband, in vote share, or he won't believe there's any reason for him to resign.SimonStClare said:H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists.
From ITV’s Daniel Hewitt
Daniel Hewitt @DanielHewittITV
Many not the few, us v them, rich against the rest, greedy bankers, tax cheats, press barons - Jeremy Corbyn doubling down on his core vote. 11:42 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Manchester Evening News’ Jennifer Williams
Jennifer Williams✔@JenWilliamsMEN
Nothing about that speech was in any way designed to win over Tory voters or potential Tory voters - spoke to the core Labour electorate. 11:44 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Times’ Sam Coates
Sam Coates Times✔@SamCoatesTimes
Jeremy Corbyn campaign launch speech focuses on areas of overlap with Ed Miliband (banker/coropratebashing) rather than areas of difference. 11:46 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Mail’s James Tapsfield
James Tapsfield @JamesTapsfield
In case there were any lingering doubts, this speech confirms Corbyn's ambitions are entirely within Labour's core support. 11:40 AM - 9 May 20170 -
Under FPTP they get barely any votes anywaycalum said:Good news for the SNP !
https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/8619203317239357440 -
Which tories are on Theresa May's team? More importantly, which ones aren't?
I guess we'll find out in her post-election reshuffle.
"strong and stable"
"strong and stable"
if in doubt, repeat.
"strong and stable"0 -
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Most Leavers would agree with all that, too. But, as you say, as neighbours. Not people who live in the same house.Icarus said:
That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.Peter_the_Punter said:
Like it Tim.TOPPING said:
V acute & interesting observation.MTimT said:
You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.Peter_the_Punter said:
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.
On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.
Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.
Ironic.
And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
Oh and don't kill each other.
Strong fences, and all that.0 -
How very dare you madam!Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
5) The Sartorially Challenged PartyTheScreamingEagles said:
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal0 -
I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.Dadge said:
Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)SimonStClare said:H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}
It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...0 -
The Guardian has not absorbed the distinction between GB and UK polls. It shows a Lbour rating of 31% as +0.6% since 2015 when it should be -0.2%.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Fact of the matter is the negotiations (as in virtually all negotiations) have to be satisfactory both in transactional and relational terms. Whatever happens, the UK and EU will have a relationship going forward. If the UK is too nasty, it will be soured. If the EU forces a Versailles-style punishment agreement through, it will be both soured and of shortish duration.Peter_the_Punter said:
Like it Tim.TOPPING said:
V acute & interesting observation.MTimT said:
You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.Peter_the_Punter said:
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.
On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.
Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.
Ironic.
And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
Versailles lasted 7 years and 4 months. The Iraq Special Commission lasted 7 years and 4 months. Just saying.0 -
The Greens hit 6.7% last week in Stirling !!HYUFD said:
Under FPTP they get barely any votes anywaycalum said:Good news for the SNP !
https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/861920331723935744
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_Council_election,_20170 -
I don't think Corbyn will beat Miliband's voteshare, but I think there's a shot at him beating Miliband's raw number of votes (I'm expecting a higher turnout in line with last year's EU Referendum).Casino_Royale said:
Labour needs to do worse under Corbyn than it did under Miliband, in vote share, or he won't believe there's any reason for him to resign.SimonStClare said:H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists.
From ITV’s Daniel Hewitt
Daniel Hewitt @DanielHewittITV
Many not the few, us v them, rich against the rest, greedy bankers, tax cheats, press barons - Jeremy Corbyn doubling down on his core vote. 11:42 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Manchester Evening News’ Jennifer Williams
Jennifer Williams✔@JenWilliamsMEN
Nothing about that speech was in any way designed to win over Tory voters or potential Tory voters - spoke to the core Labour electorate. 11:44 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Times’ Sam Coates
Sam Coates Times✔@SamCoatesTimes
Jeremy Corbyn campaign launch speech focuses on areas of overlap with Ed Miliband (banker/coropratebashing) rather than areas of difference. 11:46 AM - 9 May 2017
From the Mail’s James Tapsfield
James Tapsfield @JamesTapsfield
In case there were any lingering doubts, this speech confirms Corbyn's ambitions are entirely within Labour's core support. 11:40 AM - 9 May 2017
Apart from anything else, there really are some straws in the wind suggesting a big upsurge in young Labour supporters registering, but the downsides to that is (a) they're probably going to be concentrated in seats which don't help Labour much under FPTP, and (b) will in any case be overwhelmed by UKIPpers migrating to the Tories.0 -
He doesn't want to save MPsSimonStClare said:I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs.
The higher the vote, with fewer MPs, makes it easier for him to stay as leader, and anoint a successor0 -
Very little mention last Friday of Labour's loss of Glasgow not being unprecedent. Labour lost the city under the Callaghan Government to a SNP/Tory coalition!DavidL said:
Don't spoil the fun. But an important longer term trend is that the old Tory areas of Scotland are moving away from the SNP quite sharply as the SNP define themselves as more left than centre. The plus side from their point of view was considerable in that they took Glasgow from Labour and did very well in the western Central belt where most Scots live but Nicola is finding it harder to keep the tartan Tories on board than Salmond did.ydoethur said:
Let's not get carried away. People do vote differently in local elections, for a variety of reasons, as we have been patiently reminding the tiny handful of Labour optimists on here who say that their local results show the party isn't about to be crushed harder than a masochist's testicles. While this shows the Tories are again competitive in some areas of Scotland, realistically they will pick up 8 or so seats at best, and the SNP will still be by far the largest party.Scott_P said:It showed that in Aberdeen South, gained by the SNP in 2015, the Tories won 9,237 first preference votes, ahead of the SNP’s 7,515. The picture was similar in a number of other constituencies, including Central Ayrshire and Edinburgh South West, which had appeared outside Conservative reach. In Gordon, which Alex Salmond won in 2015, the Tories received 15,798 first preference votes to the SNP’s 13,147.
If translated into general election votes that would be enough for the Tories to eject the former first minister even though he has an apparently solid lead over the Conservatives.
The list of new Tory targets includes a number of seats where the Tories are in third place but where they now believe they can win. These include Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, where they have 15,000 votes to make up if they are to beat Corri Wilson, who is defending the seat for the SNP, and in Stirling, where the party is 11,500 votes behind the SNP’s Steven Paterson.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/confident-tories-will-target-snp-big-names-3kjs9cz23
Longer term the direction of travel may be significant but that depends on many things, not least what happens to Sturgeon if the results are a bit disappointing or the vote share is lower than anticipated. Also of course how big a mess Brexit turns out to be.0 -
Under STV not FPTP, the Greens got 1.3% in Scotland at the last general election, worse than UKIPcalum said:
The Greens hit 6.7% last week in Stirling !!HYUFD said:
Under FPTP they get barely any votes anywaycalum said:Good news for the SNP !
https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/861920331723935744
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_Council_election,_20170 -
Not really - Survation is only suggesting a 5% swing!ydoethur said:
Something similar happened in 1979, where the Cabinet had to spend a long time after the election was called drafting a manifesto. Apparently it took them three days because they couldn't agree whether one policy should be called 'fair deal free trade bargaining' or 'fair deal collective wage bargaining' (which to me implies an entirely different policy anyway).Sandpit said:
It's quite amazing that, as the general election campaign gets underway, the main opposition party are still arguing with each other, rather than with their political opponents. How much more of this before the landslide becomes an overwhelming 200 seat majority for the Tories?ydoethur said:I'll write Kevin Meagher down as 'not a fan of Corbyn:'
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/05/08/the-state-of-labour-post-anger-pre-recrimination/
But then they were in government. If Corbyn can keep the Tories to a majority of 43, or even a swing of 5%, he'll have far exceeded all expectations.0 -
Questions I posed last night but did not see any answers to. Apparently, over 1 million have signed onto the electoral roll since the announcement of the election.SimonStClare said:
I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.Dadge said:
Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)SimonStClare said:H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}
It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
Is this a sign of unusual levels of intention to vote from previous non-voters? Are the newbies mainly the young? Has anyone looked into the potential impact of this on the make up of the electorate and thus any changes needed to weighting of polls?
PS It seems about 40% of newbies are under 25
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-398379170 -
Sounds a bit like one of Ian M Banks' Culture ships.isam said:
"I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect"Peter_the_Punter said:
No, not at all.frpenkridge said:"It isn't snobbery, Ishmael.
Most Remainers would be aware that those who voted Leave tended to come from the segments of the population that would be most severely affected by Brexit, and viewed the irony with sympathy as well as sadness".
Condescension, then.
I'm really sorry that it happened, and am sure that those who suffer most will be those least able to cope with the consequences. I'm not one of those, but why shouldn't I sympathise with them? Sympathy isn't condescension.
And I hope I'm wrong. I'd be delighted to admit it, but so far I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect.
That should be the tag line under the site header
0 -
That would be tremendous news if it is even half as good as that, hilarious as it would be for them to be behind SCON and SLD.TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON??*
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/861893776171835392
The Klaxons are getting overboard though - with all these hopeful unionist gains SNP are looking sub 40, and that looks very unlikely, and 45 ish is a major stretch.
0 -
Don't forget 4 SLD MPs. 27 Unionist MPs? Give me a break. I'd be ecstatic, but I'd be ecstatic if they get 10.TheScreamingEagles said:8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.
Some people needs lessons in expectations management.0 -
Brexit just makes it inevitable that we'll join the Euro when we go back in, instead of keeping our splendid semi-isolation. The anti-federalists have blown it by voting for an existential confrontation with a stronger party.ThreeQuidder said:
Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.Peter_the_Punter said:What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.0 -
True words indeed.isam said:
"I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect"Peter_the_Punter said:
No, not at all.frpenkridge said:"It isn't snobbery, Ishmael.
Most Remainers would be aware that those who voted Leave tended to come from the segments of the population that would be most severely affected by Brexit, and viewed the irony with sympathy as well as sadness".
Condescension, then.
I'm really sorry that it happened, and am sure that those who suffer most will be those least able to cope with the consequences. I'm not one of those, but why shouldn't I sympathise with them? Sympathy isn't condescension.
And I hope I'm wrong. I'd be delighted to admit it, but so far I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect.
That should be the tag line under the site header0 -
Is that fewer than usual? I'm wondering how much the SNP are aided.Scott_P said:This is how to do expectations management...
https://twitter.com/stvnews/status/8619203317239357440 -
Many leavers also think all of that you silly man (in fact all of them when it comes to the kill each other hyperbolic nonsense)Icarus said:
That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.Peter_the_Punter said:
Like it Tim.TOPPING said:
V acute & interesting observation.MTimT said:
You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.Peter_the_Punter said:
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.
On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.
Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.
Ironic.
And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
Oh and don't kill each other.
They just don't think we should have to be part of one massive country to do so.
But you seem to still be fighting the referendum - so I will put you down as Lib Dem for my canvass return
0 -
Every reason to think they think York central is in play, which is not quite the same thing.felix said:
The last election showed that the tory leadership visit genuine target seats. I'd be mazed if this was any different. Every reason to think that York central is in play.nunu said:
I don't think people should look at where Theresa May goes as an indicator of where they are targettig. As other PBers can attest she is simply a politician that really gets stuck in. If there was a by-election in Glasgow's east end she would go there if though it would be a hopeless seat.SimonStClare said:Theresa May to give a campaign speech in York Central today. Labour MP Rachael Maskell has a majority of just under 7,000.
It may be right, in the current environmentthough0 -
Indeed. Who is against Motherhood?Animal_pb said:
Most Leavers would agree with all that, too. But, as you say, as neighbours. Not people who live in the same house.Icarus said:
That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.Peter_the_Punter said:
Like it Tim.TOPPING said:
V acute & interesting observation.MTimT said:
You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.Peter_the_Punter said:
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.
On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.
Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.
Ironic.
And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
Oh and don't kill each other.
Strong fences, and all that.0 -
My take is that this is an unusually dynamic general election. Brexit, IndiRef2, voter registration due to the boundary changes and an old school labour leader have all played a part in the dramatic rise in voter participation. – Whether that translates into a higher turnout, I couldn’t say.MTimT said:
Questions I posed last night but did not see any answers to. Apparently, over 1 million have signed onto the electoral roll since the announcement of the election.SimonStClare said:
I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.Dadge said:
Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)SimonStClare said:H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}
It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
Is this a sign of unusual levels of intention to vote from previous non-voters? Are the newbies mainly the young? Has anyone looked into the potential impact of this on the make up of the electorate and thus any changes needed to weighting of polls?
PS It seems about 40% of newbies are under 25
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-398379170 -
It would be rather delicious if, having made us lots of dosh at long odds on the way up in 2015 (best for me was 66/1 on Berwickshire, R & S), the SNP repeated the favour by losing seats on the way down.0
-
MTimT said:
Indeed. Who is against Motherhood?Animal_pb said:
Most Leavers would agree with all that, too. But, as you say, as neighbours. Not people who live in the same house.Icarus said:
That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.Peter_the_Punter said:
Like it Tim.TOPPING said:
V acute & interesting observation.MTimT said:
You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.Peter_the_Punter said:
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.
On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.
Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.
Ironic.
And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
Oh and don't kill each other.
Strong fences, and all that.
Durex?
0 -
This question goes to you Andrea LeadsomMTimT said:
Indeed. Who is against Motherhood?Animal_pb said:
Most Leavers would agree with all that, too. But, as you say, as neighbours. Not people who live in the same house.Icarus said:
That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.Peter_the_Punter said:
Like it Tim.TOPPING said:
V acute & interesting observation.MTimT said:
You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.Peter_the_Punter said:
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.
I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.
On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.
Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.
Ironic.
And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
Oh and don't kill each other.
Strong fences, and all that.0 -
We won't ever go back in at the most we may rejoin the single market but not the full EU we stayed out of the EEC for almost 20 years and were in EFTA instead for a reason it is now clearwilliamglenn said:
Brexit just makes it inevitable that we'll join the Euro when we go back in, instead of keeping our splendid semi-isolation. The anti-federalists have blown it by voting for an existential confrontation with a stronger party.ThreeQuidder said:
Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.Peter_the_Punter said:What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.0 -
Might this story cause Labour a problem in Wales?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39857377
They have 35 days in which to produce information on the state aid given to Aston Martin, and they have to do so (by my calculation) June 1st.
Unless they appeal ...
This comes on top of the problems with the Circuit of Wales:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-397064990 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
New Thread>>>0
-
Kids for Corbyn will likely be more than offset by WWC for screw you JeremyMTimT said:
Questions I posed last night but did not see any answers to. Apparently, over 1 million have signed onto the electoral roll since the announcement of the election.SimonStClare said:
I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.Dadge said:
Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)SimonStClare said:H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}
It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
Is this a sign of unusual levels of intention to vote from previous non-voters? Are the newbies mainly the young? Has anyone looked into the potential impact of this on the make up of the electorate and thus any changes needed to weighting of polls?
PS It seems about 40% of newbies are under 25
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-398379170 -
Most of the actual policies, taken individually, are popular, as is the general stance of "for the many not the few".Roger said:I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.
This could yet be an unexpected election.
The problem is that there is no sense of moderation in all that. It turns into a far left agenda because there's no recognition that, while you have to take on bad practices, you also need to promote what is good in business, that is talking up the businesses which do not make every effort to bend the rules and end up being undercut by those which have less scruples.
Plus, of course, the person making the case comes accompanied by more than a little extraneous baggage.0 -
I believe 6.7% was The Greens 1st preference vote in Stirling - so could have a FPTP impact if reflected at GE 2017 !!HYUFD said:
Under STV not FPTP, the Greens got 1.3% in Scotland at the last general election, worse than UKIPcalum said:
The Greens hit 6.7% last week in Stirling !!HYUFD said:
Under FPTP they get barely any votes anywaycalum said:Good news for the SNP !
https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/861920331723935744
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_Council_election,_20170 -
This happens every year when there is a referendum or election, and the number of registration applications does not equal additional voters. On many occasions they are just duplicates of existing registrations.MTimT said:
Questions I posed last night but did not see any answers to. Apparently, over 1 million have signed onto the electoral roll since the announcement of the election.SimonStClare said:
I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.Dadge said:
Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)SimonStClare said:H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}
It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
Is this a sign of unusual levels of intention to vote from previous non-voters? Are the newbies mainly the young? Has anyone looked into the potential impact of this on the make up of the electorate and thus any changes needed to weighting of polls?
PS It seems about 40% of newbies are under 25
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-398379170 -
I believe they will struggle to hold 40 seats.calum said:
SLAB, SCON & SLID all surging !TheScreamingEagles said:*Surge KLAXON??*
https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/861893776171835392
At this rate the SNP are going to be lucky to hold on to 30 seats if the political commentators and party leaders are accurate !!0 -
Thankschestnut said:
This happens every year when there is a referendum or election, and the number of registration applications does not equal additional voters. On many occasions they are just duplicates of existing registrations.MTimT said:
Questions I posed last night but did not see any answers to. Apparently, over 1 million have signed onto the electoral roll since the announcement of the election.SimonStClare said:
I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.Dadge said:
Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)SimonStClare said:H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}
It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
Is this a sign of unusual levels of intention to vote from previous non-voters? Are the newbies mainly the young? Has anyone looked into the potential impact of this on the make up of the electorate and thus any changes needed to weighting of polls?
PS It seems about 40% of newbies are under 25
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-398379170
