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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron’s first big decision – choosing his Prime Minister. Chr

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,292
    If you believe that you'll believe anything.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    RobD said:

    Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?

    the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.
    I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand under

    1) Tory
    2) The Yes2AV Party
    3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
    4) Gladstonian Liberal
    Last time in Buckingham (I live in the constituency) the options were Bercow, Green and UKIP. If there were the same options this time I might well spoil my ballot paper.

    I'd vote for a candidate that was standing purely to abolish the crazy system where we don't get a real choice on our MP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    edited May 2017
    tlg86 said:

    If you believe that you'll believe anything.
    They'll emerge with 1 seat, East Lothian.

    I think the Tory tide will surge in Edi South...
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    RobD said:

    Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?

    the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.
    I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand under

    1) Tory
    2) The Yes2AV Party
    3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
    4) Gladstonian Liberal
    How about the HAB Party?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Quick note - the Survation Poll is a UK poll as it has NI in there...

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Final-GMB-GE2017-Poll-I-050517TOCH-1c0d0h5.pdf

    Thanks for spotting that. The brief notes issues last night referred to a GB poll . Confusion resolved!
    I note that Survation has given data to a decimal point with the Tories on 46.8% and Labour on 30.2% so a UK lead of 16.6% - ie a swing of 5.05% from 2015. Tories & Labour also shown as very close in Scotland.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,263

    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.
    There was an army of people hell bent on making Leave later impossible for the UK. Indeed, they thought it already was.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Roger said:

    I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.

    This could yet be an unexpected election.

    Jezza is quite an effective rabble rouser, and seems to relish the opportunity to speak in public.

    Looking at the odds in places like Stoke Central doesn't convince me to re-stake my Macron winnings. The Tory landslide story seems oversold. I am looking for value in Labour defences now, at least in England.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,263

    I missed the Welsh polling update yesterday - were they rowing back a bit from Tories Win Rhondda?

    Tories up 1, labour up 5, Tory lead 6%

    Ta muchly
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,263

    RobD said:

    The Evening Standard appears to have become the official opposition. So far quite a bit more effectively than Team Twat.

    I think we're looking at the next editor of The Times.
    He's already got seven jobs.... :p
    He's a modern day polymath.
    Does that mean he's a polytechnic maths teacher?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    That's maybe ahead in one and behind in six?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034



    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.

    I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.

    On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.

    Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.

    Ironic.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited May 2017

    Theresa May to give a campaign speech in York Central today. Labour MP Rachael Maskell has a majority of just under 7,000.

    I don't think people should look at where Theresa May goes as an indicator of where they are targettig. As other PBers can attest she is simply a politician that really gets stuck in. If there was a by-election in Glasgow's east end she would go there even though it would be a hopeless seat.

    (none of this means ofcourse they are not targetting York central, a lot of graduates I would of thought tho).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.

    Some people needs lessons in expectations management.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    nunu said:

    Theresa May to give a campaign speech in York Central today. Labour MP Rachael Maskell has a majority of just under 7,000.

    I don't think people should look at where Theresa May goes as an indicator of where they are targettig. As other PBers can attest she is simply a politician that really gets stuck in. If there was a by-election in Glasgow's east end she would go there if though it would be a hopeless seat.
    The last election showed that the tory leadership visit genuine target seats. I'd be mazed if this was any different. Every reason to think that York central is in play.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,410

    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.
    It will be a very compromised Brexit, where we get less than we had before, still do most of what the EU asks us, have much less influence over what that is, and still pay a lot, possibly as much as before. The question to which I have never had a good answer to is, why are we doing this? The British people voted for it, so we are doing it. I get that, but it seems unsatisfactory.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists.

    From ITV’s Daniel Hewitt

    Daniel Hewitt @DanielHewittITV
    Many not the few, us v them, rich against the rest, greedy bankers, tax cheats, press barons - Jeremy Corbyn doubling down on his core vote. 11:42 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Manchester Evening News’ Jennifer Williams

    Jennifer Williams✔@JenWilliamsMEN
    Nothing about that speech was in any way designed to win over Tory voters or potential Tory voters - spoke to the core Labour electorate. 11:44 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Times’ Sam Coates

    Sam Coates Times✔@SamCoatesTimes
    Jeremy Corbyn campaign launch speech focuses on areas of overlap with Ed Miliband (banker/coropratebashing) rather than areas of difference. 11:46 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Mail’s James Tapsfield

    James Tapsfield @JamesTapsfield
    In case there were any lingering doubts, this speech confirms Corbyn's ambitions are entirely within Labour's core support. 11:40 AM - 9 May 2017
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,997

    RobD said:

    Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?

    the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.
    I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand under

    1) Tory
    2) The Yes2AV Party
    3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
    4) Gladstonian Liberal
    2,4 and 4 are not necessarily mutually exclusive - so Y2AVSLIFDOMMIGENTGladLibs ?
    Has a certain... well, if not ring, then dull clang.

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    SLAB, SCON & SLID all surging !

    At this rate the SNP are going to be lucky to hold on to 30 seats if the political commentators and party leaders are accurate !!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,263
    FF43 said:

    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.
    It will be a very compromised Brexit, where we get less than we had before, still do most of what the EU asks us, have much less influence over what that is, and still pay a lot, possibly as much as before. The question to which I have never had a good answer to is, why are we doing this? The British people voted for it, so we are doing it. I get that, but it seems unsatisfactory.
    So stand for Westminster, telling them that you're not doing it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    MTimT said:



    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.

    I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.

    On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.

    Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.

    Ironic.
    V acute & interesting observation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    felix said:

    Roger said:

    I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.

    This could yet be an unexpected election.

    Phew. Most reassuring post I've read all day.
    I love him. All done with a straight face - there are no tanks in Baghdad - or today York Central.
    It is seriously impressive how he manages to be wrong about everything, all the time.

    A true feat of nature.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited May 2017
    You may even get SCons tactically voting Labour in those seats with a clothespeg on their nose, they think Corbyn is useless but they absolutely despise the SNP
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,263
    felix said:

    nunu said:

    Theresa May to give a campaign speech in York Central today. Labour MP Rachael Maskell has a majority of just under 7,000.

    I don't think people should look at where Theresa May goes as an indicator of where they are targettig. As other PBers can attest she is simply a politician that really gets stuck in. If there was a by-election in Glasgow's east end she would go there if though it would be a hopeless seat.
    The last election showed that the tory leadership visit genuine target seats. I'd be mazed if this was any different. Every reason to think that York central is in play.

    Indeed. Much snorting derision on here when I let it be known that after Torbay, Theresa May was visiting Yeovil.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255

    RobD said:

    Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?

    the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.
    I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand under

    1) Tory
    2) The Yes2AV Party
    3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
    4) Gladstonian Liberal
    You could call (3) "On, march!".
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,958

    Roger said:

    I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.

    This could yet be an unexpected election.

    Jezza is quite an effective rabble rouser, and seems to relish the opportunity to speak in public.

    Looking at the odds in places like Stoke Central doesn't convince me to re-stake my Macron winnings. The Tory landslide story seems oversold. I am looking for value in Labour defences now, at least in England.
    I fear that's right. The way things stand Corbyn's Labour (*) are not going to do as bad as some (seemingly including some within the party) are claiming. It'll be bad, but expectations are so low that Corbyn might even be able to claim a victory.

    Then again, my predictions wrt Scottish Labour before GE2015 were not exactly prescient ...

    (*) Not that they'll brand it like that ... ;)
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.
    There was an army of people hell bent on making Leave later impossible for the UK. Indeed, they thought it already was.
    Absolutely.

    Technically, I suppose I haven't answered PtP's question - but that's because I dispute the premise of it, as the old deal was not going to be around forever.
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198

    RobD said:

    The Evening Standard appears to have become the official opposition. So far quite a bit more effectively than Team Twat.

    I think we're looking at the next editor of The Times.
    He's already got seven jobs.... :p
    He's a modern day polymath.
    Does that mean he's a polytechnic maths teacher?
    No - it means you can give him a single numeric problem and he can come up with several different answers - sort of Abbottlike.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    calum said:

    SLAB, SCON & SLID all surging !

    At this rate the SNP are going to be lucky to hold on to 30 seats if the political commentators and party leaders are accurate !!
    I liked this from an SNP minister

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/861919921390981120
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497
    TOPPING said:

    MTimT said:



    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.

    I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.

    On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.

    Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.

    Ironic.
    V acute & interesting observation.
    Like it Tim.

    And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373

    felix said:

    nunu said:

    Theresa May to give a campaign speech in York Central today. Labour MP Rachael Maskell has a majority of just under 7,000.

    I don't think people should look at where Theresa May goes as an indicator of where they are targettig. As other PBers can attest she is simply a politician that really gets stuck in. If there was a by-election in Glasgow's east end she would go there if though it would be a hopeless seat.
    The last election showed that the tory leadership visit genuine target seats. I'd be mazed if this was any different. Every reason to think that York central is in play.

    Indeed. Much snorting derision on here when I let it be known that after Torbay, Theresa May was visiting Yeovil.....
    She also visited Leeds East. Burgon must be toast.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    PS Yeovil was only won because Dave visited the seat and campaigned 200 yards from Paddy Ashdown's house.

    So Ballsy.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    calum said:

    SLAB, SCON & SLID all surging !

    At this rate the SNP are going to be lucky to hold on to 30 seats if the political commentators and party leaders are accurate !!
    I agree - i'd expect 2/3 Labour tops 2 LDs tops and 4/5 Tory tops. anything more a bonus but there are some seriously large majorities to overcome.and Slab stupidly may not 'lend votes to SCon.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Calum, you're going to need more Scotsmen so that there's enough voters for all the surging :p
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.

    Some people needs lessons in expectations management.

    Only need 7 LDs to get the SNP into minority status...!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,958
    ITV News leading with the Conservative's energy announcement as a u-turn.

    Not what May's team would have wanted.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 994

    TOPPING said:

    MTimT said:



    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.

    I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.

    On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.

    Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.

    Ironic.
    V acute & interesting observation.
    Like it Tim.

    And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
    That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.

    Oh and don't kill each other.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This is how to do expectations management...

    https://twitter.com/stvnews/status/861920331723935744
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.

    Some people needs lessons in expectations management.

    Only need 7 LDs to get the SNP into minority status...!
    9/1 with Skybet...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,410
    edited May 2017
    https://twitter.com/KennyFarq/status/861894157069160449

    East Lothian, I think, is better than evens. The others are heroic. The so-called Monklands McMafia in Lanarkshire are colourful. Labour weren't much better back in the day, but people may have forgotten about them ...
  • MrsB said:

    Sandpit said:

    I'd have voted LD to give Zac the message in Richmond, but with this I'd now support him. How many others like me will be massively turned off by the idea that voting LD helps Corbyn?
    Really? How does it help Corbyn? One more seat where Labour are waving the white flag.

    And it's one stakeboard, BTW.

    Get a grip.
    Does it have an Imprint, and what does it say ?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.

    Some people needs lessons in expectations management.

    Only need 7 LDs to get the SNP into minority status...!
    9/1 with Skybet...
    7 LDs or SNP sub 30?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Icarus said:

    TOPPING said:

    MTimT said:



    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.

    I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.

    On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.

    Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.

    Ironic.
    V acute & interesting observation.
    Like it Tim.

    And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
    That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.

    Oh and don't kill each other.
    Obviously. Hence Project Fear.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    "It isn't snobbery, Ishmael.

    Most Remainers would be aware that those who voted Leave tended to come from the segments of the population that would be most severely affected by Brexit, and viewed the irony with sympathy as well as sadness".

    Condescension, then.

    No, not at all.

    I'm really sorry that it happened, and am sure that those who suffer most will be those least able to cope with the consequences. I'm not one of those, but why shouldn't I sympathise with them? Sympathy isn't condescension.

    And I hope I'm wrong. I'd be delighted to admit it, but so far I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect.
    "I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect"

    That should be the tag line under the site header
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    isam said:

    "I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect"

    That should be the tag line under the site header

    That's my Twitter bio...
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    RobD said:

    The Evening Standard appears to have become the official opposition. So far quite a bit more effectively than Team Twat.

    I think we're looking at the next editor of The Times.
    He's already got seven jobs.... :p
    He's a modern day polymath.
    Does that mean he's a polytechnic maths teacher?
    No - it means you can give him a single numeric problem and he can come up with several different answers - sort of Abbottlike.

    He graduated from the Department of Experimental Mathematics at the University of Abbottabad.
  • 8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.

    Some people needs lessons in expectations management.

    I can see the point of expectations management in local elections, as you want to shape the headlines the next day so it's, "Party X triumphs as net losses held to 600! Party Y's leader on the rack as failure to seize key target of Anytown mars 800 gains elsewhere!"

    But ultimately the General Election is the big one and you need to generate a bit of a feeling of momentum, especially if you're the insurgent. Tories could live with "Only 10 Scottish Tories as vaunted surge fails to materialise" as that means they'd have 10 MPs in Scotland and, by the time they are up for re-election, people have forgotten that it was seen as a bit of a disappointment.
  • RobD said:

    Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?

    the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.
    I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand under

    1) Tory
    2) The Yes2AV Party
    3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
    4) Gladstonian Liberal
    5) The Sartorially Challenged Party
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists.

    From ITV’s Daniel Hewitt

    Daniel Hewitt @DanielHewittITV
    Many not the few, us v them, rich against the rest, greedy bankers, tax cheats, press barons - Jeremy Corbyn doubling down on his core vote. 11:42 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Manchester Evening News’ Jennifer Williams

    Jennifer Williams✔@JenWilliamsMEN
    Nothing about that speech was in any way designed to win over Tory voters or potential Tory voters - spoke to the core Labour electorate. 11:44 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Times’ Sam Coates

    Sam Coates Times✔@SamCoatesTimes
    Jeremy Corbyn campaign launch speech focuses on areas of overlap with Ed Miliband (banker/coropratebashing) rather than areas of difference. 11:46 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Mail’s James Tapsfield

    James Tapsfield @JamesTapsfield
    In case there were any lingering doubts, this speech confirms Corbyn's ambitions are entirely within Labour's core support. 11:40 AM - 9 May 2017

    Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)

    It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299

    ITV News leading with the Conservative's energy announcement as a u-turn.

    Not what May's team would have wanted.

    It is, at least as far as Con Party policy goes. It is deepliy disappointing. A rubbish policy
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Chortle. I see George is enjoying himself at The Standard

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/861900570868809728

    Mary Beard on Pink Floyd !
    Irresistible.

    Osborne's making a tit of himself at The Standard. The nasty little twerp really thinks he's funny.
    Losing a referendum seems to infect people with unfunny bitterness
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255

    H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists.

    From ITV’s Daniel Hewitt

    Daniel Hewitt @DanielHewittITV
    Many not the few, us v them, rich against the rest, greedy bankers, tax cheats, press barons - Jeremy Corbyn doubling down on his core vote. 11:42 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Manchester Evening News’ Jennifer Williams

    Jennifer Williams✔@JenWilliamsMEN
    Nothing about that speech was in any way designed to win over Tory voters or potential Tory voters - spoke to the core Labour electorate. 11:44 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Times’ Sam Coates

    Sam Coates Times✔@SamCoatesTimes
    Jeremy Corbyn campaign launch speech focuses on areas of overlap with Ed Miliband (banker/coropratebashing) rather than areas of difference. 11:46 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Mail’s James Tapsfield

    James Tapsfield @JamesTapsfield
    In case there were any lingering doubts, this speech confirms Corbyn's ambitions are entirely within Labour's core support. 11:40 AM - 9 May 2017

    Labour needs to do worse under Corbyn than it did under Miliband, in vote share, or he won't believe there's any reason for him to resign.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    calum said:
    Under FPTP they get barely any votes anyway
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    isam said:

    "I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect"

    That should be the tag line under the site header

    That's my Twitter bio...
    :+1:
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    Which tories are on Theresa May's team? More importantly, which ones aren't?

    I guess we'll find out in her post-election reshuffle.

    "strong and stable"

    "strong and stable"

    if in doubt, repeat.

    "strong and stable"
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    Icarus said:

    TOPPING said:

    MTimT said:



    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.

    I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.

    On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.

    Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.

    Ironic.
    V acute & interesting observation.
    Like it Tim.

    And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
    That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.

    Oh and don't kill each other.
    Most Leavers would agree with all that, too. But, as you say, as neighbours. Not people who live in the same house.

    Strong fences, and all that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373

    RobD said:

    Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?

    the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.
    I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand under

    1) Tory
    2) The Yes2AV Party
    3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
    4) Gladstonian Liberal
    5) The Sartorially Challenged Party
    How very dare you madam!
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2017
    Dadge said:

    H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}

    Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)

    It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
    I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The Guardian has not absorbed the distinction between GB and UK polls. It shows a Lbour rating of 31% as +0.6% since 2015 when it should be -0.2%.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    TOPPING said:

    MTimT said:



    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.

    I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.

    On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.

    Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.

    Ironic.
    V acute & interesting observation.
    Like it Tim.

    And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
    Fact of the matter is the negotiations (as in virtually all negotiations) have to be satisfactory both in transactional and relational terms. Whatever happens, the UK and EU will have a relationship going forward. If the UK is too nasty, it will be soured. If the EU forces a Versailles-style punishment agreement through, it will be both soured and of shortish duration.

    Versailles lasted 7 years and 4 months. The Iraq Special Commission lasted 7 years and 4 months. Just saying.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Under FPTP they get barely any votes anyway
    The Greens hit 6.7% last week in Stirling !!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_Council_election,_2017
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited May 2017

    H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists.

    From ITV’s Daniel Hewitt

    Daniel Hewitt @DanielHewittITV
    Many not the few, us v them, rich against the rest, greedy bankers, tax cheats, press barons - Jeremy Corbyn doubling down on his core vote. 11:42 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Manchester Evening News’ Jennifer Williams

    Jennifer Williams✔@JenWilliamsMEN
    Nothing about that speech was in any way designed to win over Tory voters or potential Tory voters - spoke to the core Labour electorate. 11:44 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Times’ Sam Coates

    Sam Coates Times✔@SamCoatesTimes
    Jeremy Corbyn campaign launch speech focuses on areas of overlap with Ed Miliband (banker/coropratebashing) rather than areas of difference. 11:46 AM - 9 May 2017

    From the Mail’s James Tapsfield

    James Tapsfield @JamesTapsfield
    In case there were any lingering doubts, this speech confirms Corbyn's ambitions are entirely within Labour's core support. 11:40 AM - 9 May 2017

    Labour needs to do worse under Corbyn than it did under Miliband, in vote share, or he won't believe there's any reason for him to resign.
    I don't think Corbyn will beat Miliband's voteshare, but I think there's a shot at him beating Miliband's raw number of votes (I'm expecting a higher turnout in line with last year's EU Referendum).

    Apart from anything else, there really are some straws in the wind suggesting a big upsurge in young Labour supporters registering, but the downsides to that is (a) they're probably going to be concentrated in seats which don't help Labour much under FPTP, and (b) will in any case be overwhelmed by UKIPpers migrating to the Tories.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs.

    He doesn't want to save MPs

    The higher the vote, with fewer MPs, makes it easier for him to stay as leader, and anoint a successor
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    It showed that in Aberdeen South, gained by the SNP in 2015, the Tories won 9,237 first preference votes, ahead of the SNP’s 7,515. The picture was similar in a number of other constituencies, including Central Ayrshire and Edinburgh South West, which had appeared outside Conservative reach. In Gordon, which Alex Salmond won in 2015, the Tories received 15,798 first preference votes to the SNP’s 13,147.

    If translated into general election votes that would be enough for the Tories to eject the former first minister even though he has an apparently solid lead over the Conservatives.

    The list of new Tory targets includes a number of seats where the Tories are in third place but where they now believe they can win. These include Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, where they have 15,000 votes to make up if they are to beat Corri Wilson, who is defending the seat for the SNP, and in Stirling, where the party is 11,500 votes behind the SNP’s Steven Paterson.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/confident-tories-will-target-snp-big-names-3kjs9cz23

    Let's not get carried away. People do vote differently in local elections, for a variety of reasons, as we have been patiently reminding the tiny handful of Labour optimists on here who say that their local results show the party isn't about to be crushed harder than a masochist's testicles. While this shows the Tories are again competitive in some areas of Scotland, realistically they will pick up 8 or so seats at best, and the SNP will still be by far the largest party.

    Longer term the direction of travel may be significant but that depends on many things, not least what happens to Sturgeon if the results are a bit disappointing or the vote share is lower than anticipated. Also of course how big a mess Brexit turns out to be.
    Don't spoil the fun. But an important longer term trend is that the old Tory areas of Scotland are moving away from the SNP quite sharply as the SNP define themselves as more left than centre. The plus side from their point of view was considerable in that they took Glasgow from Labour and did very well in the western Central belt where most Scots live but Nicola is finding it harder to keep the tartan Tories on board than Salmond did.
    Very little mention last Friday of Labour's loss of Glasgow not being unprecedent. Labour lost the city under the Callaghan Government to a SNP/Tory coalition!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited May 2017
    calum said:

    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Under FPTP they get barely any votes anyway
    The Greens hit 6.7% last week in Stirling !!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_Council_election,_2017
    Under STV not FPTP, the Greens got 1.3% in Scotland at the last general election, worse than UKIP
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:
    It's quite amazing that, as the general election campaign gets underway, the main opposition party are still arguing with each other, rather than with their political opponents. How much more of this before the landslide becomes an overwhelming 200 seat majority for the Tories?
    Something similar happened in 1979, where the Cabinet had to spend a long time after the election was called drafting a manifesto. Apparently it took them three days because they couldn't agree whether one policy should be called 'fair deal free trade bargaining' or 'fair deal collective wage bargaining' (which to me implies an entirely different policy anyway).

    But then they were in government. If Corbyn can keep the Tories to a majority of 43, or even a swing of 5%, he'll have far exceeded all expectations.
    Not really - Survation is only suggesting a 5% swing!
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited May 2017

    Dadge said:

    H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}

    Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)

    It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
    I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.
    Questions I posed last night but did not see any answers to. Apparently, over 1 million have signed onto the electoral roll since the announcement of the election.

    Is this a sign of unusual levels of intention to vote from previous non-voters? Are the newbies mainly the young? Has anyone looked into the potential impact of this on the make up of the electorate and thus any changes needed to weighting of polls?

    PS It seems about 40% of newbies are under 25

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39837917
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,997
    isam said:

    "It isn't snobbery, Ishmael.

    Most Remainers would be aware that those who voted Leave tended to come from the segments of the population that would be most severely affected by Brexit, and viewed the irony with sympathy as well as sadness".

    Condescension, then.

    No, not at all.

    I'm really sorry that it happened, and am sure that those who suffer most will be those least able to cope with the consequences. I'm not one of those, but why shouldn't I sympathise with them? Sympathy isn't condescension.

    And I hope I'm wrong. I'd be delighted to admit it, but so far I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect.
    "I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect"

    That should be the tag line under the site header
    Sounds a bit like one of Ian M Banks' Culture ships.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    That would be tremendous news if it is even half as good as that, hilarious as it would be for them to be behind SCON and SLD.

    The Klaxons are getting overboard though - with all these hopeful unionist gains SNP are looking sub 40, and that looks very unlikely, and 45 ish is a major stretch.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    8 SLAB MPs, 15 Scottish Tory MPs.

    Some people needs lessons in expectations management.

    Don't forget 4 SLD MPs. 27 Unionist MPs? Give me a break. I'd be ecstatic, but I'd be ecstatic if they get 10.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,880

    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.
    Brexit just makes it inevitable that we'll join the Euro when we go back in, instead of keeping our splendid semi-isolation. The anti-federalists have blown it by voting for an existential confrontation with a stronger party.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    isam said:

    "It isn't snobbery, Ishmael.

    Most Remainers would be aware that those who voted Leave tended to come from the segments of the population that would be most severely affected by Brexit, and viewed the irony with sympathy as well as sadness".

    Condescension, then.

    No, not at all.

    I'm really sorry that it happened, and am sure that those who suffer most will be those least able to cope with the consequences. I'm not one of those, but why shouldn't I sympathise with them? Sympathy isn't condescension.

    And I hope I'm wrong. I'd be delighted to admit it, but so far I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect.
    "I see no reason to think my original judgement was incorrect"

    That should be the tag line under the site header
    True words indeed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Scott_P said:

    This is how to do expectations management...

    https://twitter.com/stvnews/status/861920331723935744

    Is that fewer than usual? I'm wondering how much the SNP are aided.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Icarus said:

    TOPPING said:

    MTimT said:



    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.

    I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.

    On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.

    Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.

    Ironic.
    V acute & interesting observation.
    Like it Tim.

    And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
    That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.

    Oh and don't kill each other.
    Many leavers also think all of that you silly man (in fact all of them when it comes to the kill each other hyperbolic nonsense)

    They just don't think we should have to be part of one massive country to do so.

    But you seem to still be fighting the referendum - so I will put you down as Lib Dem for my canvass return
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    felix said:

    nunu said:

    Theresa May to give a campaign speech in York Central today. Labour MP Rachael Maskell has a majority of just under 7,000.

    I don't think people should look at where Theresa May goes as an indicator of where they are targettig. As other PBers can attest she is simply a politician that really gets stuck in. If there was a by-election in Glasgow's east end she would go there if though it would be a hopeless seat.
    The last election showed that the tory leadership visit genuine target seats. I'd be mazed if this was any different. Every reason to think that York central is in play.
    Every reason to think they think York central is in play, which is not quite the same thing.

    It may be right, in the current environmentthough
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Animal_pb said:

    Icarus said:

    TOPPING said:

    MTimT said:



    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.

    I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.

    On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.

    Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.

    Ironic.
    V acute & interesting observation.
    Like it Tim.

    And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
    That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.

    Oh and don't kill each other.
    Most Leavers would agree with all that, too. But, as you say, as neighbours. Not people who live in the same house.

    Strong fences, and all that.
    Indeed. Who is against Motherhood?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    MTimT said:

    Dadge said:

    H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}

    Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)

    It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
    I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.
    Questions I posed last night but did not see any answers to. Apparently, over 1 million have signed onto the electoral roll since the announcement of the election.

    Is this a sign of unusual levels of intention to vote from previous non-voters? Are the newbies mainly the young? Has anyone looked into the potential impact of this on the make up of the electorate and thus any changes needed to weighting of polls?

    PS It seems about 40% of newbies are under 25

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39837917
    My take is that this is an unusually dynamic general election. Brexit, IndiRef2, voter registration due to the boundary changes and an old school labour leader have all played a part in the dramatic rise in voter participation. – Whether that translates into a higher turnout, I couldn’t say.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    It would be rather delicious if, having made us lots of dosh at long odds on the way up in 2015 (best for me was 66/1 on Berwickshire, R & S), the SNP repeated the favour by losing seats on the way down.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MTimT said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Icarus said:

    TOPPING said:

    MTimT said:



    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.

    I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.

    On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.

    Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.

    Ironic.
    V acute & interesting observation.
    Like it Tim.

    And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
    That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.

    Oh and don't kill each other.
    Most Leavers would agree with all that, too. But, as you say, as neighbours. Not people who live in the same house.

    Strong fences, and all that.
    Indeed. Who is against Motherhood?

    Durex?

  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    MTimT said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Icarus said:

    TOPPING said:

    MTimT said:



    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    You two are as bad as TImB and TimT. Each time I read something from you, I think, 'that doesn't sound like Peter', then I realize is it 'the Punter' not 'from Putney'.

    I find it funny (strange, not hilarious) how this transactional/relational thing is playing out in Brexit.

    On Brexit, itself: The Leavers' logic is very much that there is more to life than economics and hence is a relational approach to how Brits feel about themselves. Conversely, the Remainers' approach is very transactional - it's all about the economics and what has been negotiated over the 40 years.

    Come to the Brexit negotiations, and the roles reverse. The Leavers become transactional (we just want a trade deal) and the EU and Remainers become very relational (this is not leaving a golf club, it is a divorce, and sorting out responsibilities to the family}.

    Ironic.
    V acute & interesting observation.
    Like it Tim.

    And just remember there's a £1 fine for confusing me with my venerable friend PfP.
    That is nonsense. Remainers think that we are Europeans and should cooperate with our neighbours, let our children marry each other, study work and play in each others countries.

    Oh and don't kill each other.
    Most Leavers would agree with all that, too. But, as you say, as neighbours. Not people who live in the same house.

    Strong fences, and all that.
    Indeed. Who is against Motherhood?
    This question goes to you Andrea Leadsom
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited May 2017

    What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.

    And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.

    Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.
    Brexit just makes it inevitable that we'll join the Euro when we go back in, instead of keeping our splendid semi-isolation. The anti-federalists have blown it by voting for an existential confrontation with a stronger party.
    We won't ever go back in at the most we may rejoin the single market but not the full EU we stayed out of the EEC for almost 20 years and were in EFTA instead for a reason it is now clear
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,958
    Might this story cause Labour a problem in Wales?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39857377

    They have 35 days in which to produce information on the state aid given to Aston Martin, and they have to do so (by my calculation) June 1st.

    Unless they appeal ...

    This comes on top of the problems with the Circuit of Wales:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-39706499
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373

    NEW THREAD

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2017
    New Thread>>>
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    MTimT said:

    Dadge said:

    H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}

    Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)

    It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
    I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.
    Questions I posed last night but did not see any answers to. Apparently, over 1 million have signed onto the electoral roll since the announcement of the election.

    Is this a sign of unusual levels of intention to vote from previous non-voters? Are the newbies mainly the young? Has anyone looked into the potential impact of this on the make up of the electorate and thus any changes needed to weighting of polls?

    PS It seems about 40% of newbies are under 25

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39837917
    Kids for Corbyn will likely be more than offset by WWC for screw you Jeremy
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Roger said:

    I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.

    This could yet be an unexpected election.

    Most of the actual policies, taken individually, are popular, as is the general stance of "for the many not the few".

    The problem is that there is no sense of moderation in all that. It turns into a far left agenda because there's no recognition that, while you have to take on bad practices, you also need to promote what is good in business, that is talking up the businesses which do not make every effort to bend the rules and end up being undercut by those which have less scruples.

    Plus, of course, the person making the case comes accompanied by more than a little extraneous baggage.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    HYUFD said:

    calum said:

    HYUFD said:

    calum said:
    Under FPTP they get barely any votes anyway
    The Greens hit 6.7% last week in Stirling !!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_Council_election,_2017
    Under STV not FPTP, the Greens got 1.3% in Scotland at the last general election, worse than UKIP
    I believe 6.7% was The Greens 1st preference vote in Stirling - so could have a FPTP impact if reflected at GE 2017 !!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    MTimT said:

    Dadge said:

    H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}

    Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)

    It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
    I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.
    Questions I posed last night but did not see any answers to. Apparently, over 1 million have signed onto the electoral roll since the announcement of the election.

    Is this a sign of unusual levels of intention to vote from previous non-voters? Are the newbies mainly the young? Has anyone looked into the potential impact of this on the make up of the electorate and thus any changes needed to weighting of polls?

    PS It seems about 40% of newbies are under 25

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39837917
    This happens every year when there is a referendum or election, and the number of registration applications does not equal additional voters. On many occasions they are just duplicates of existing registrations.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    calum said:

    SLAB, SCON & SLID all surging !

    At this rate the SNP are going to be lucky to hold on to 30 seats if the political commentators and party leaders are accurate !!
    I believe they will struggle to hold 40 seats.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    chestnut said:

    MTimT said:

    Dadge said:

    H/T Sparrow: - Here is some more comment on the Corbyn speech from journalists. {snipped for space}

    Of course some of Labour's "core support" are currently telling pollsters that they're going to vote Tory (etc.), or not going to vote, so it's not mad of him to do this. Corbyn and his supporters have always been convinced that the core vote could be expanded, obviously not by winning over selfish Tories, but by getting back the old Labour core that've drifted to Ukip and the Greens, and by GOTV of the latent support among the young and poor who identify as non-voters. But I don't think any of this is enough to win an election, and if it was you'd already see the Tories and the Mail in full-on Operation Fear mode. (As it is, they've barely got out of first gear.)

    It'll be interesting to see how many young people and previous non-voters turn out for Labour this time. I had thought there must be quite a bit of strategy and legwork going on in Momentum (and Labour) to try and justify the faith in Corbyn, but I haven't seen much. Maybe it just needs another five years...
    I understand the reasoning behind Corbyn’s campaign message, the problem for him is there is not enough core support to save dozens of his MPs. Corbyn has already given in, it’s the same bunker mentality, we saw with Michael Howard and the Tories.
    Questions I posed last night but did not see any answers to. Apparently, over 1 million have signed onto the electoral roll since the announcement of the election.

    Is this a sign of unusual levels of intention to vote from previous non-voters? Are the newbies mainly the young? Has anyone looked into the potential impact of this on the make up of the electorate and thus any changes needed to weighting of polls?

    PS It seems about 40% of newbies are under 25

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39837917
    This happens every year when there is a referendum or election, and the number of registration applications does not equal additional voters. On many occasions they are just duplicates of existing registrations.
    Thanks
This discussion has been closed.