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Jeremy Corbyn really really needs to learn cadence.0
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I think that is the least of his problems....TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn really really needs to learn cadence.
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They mean 30 days for Theresa May to plan her reshuffle ditching Jeremy Hunt.RobD said:Apparently there are now 30 whole days to save the NHS. Things are looking up...
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Mr. Eagles, cadence is a capitalist propaganda tool!0
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"Flash, Flash! I love you, but we only 14 hours to save the NHS!"RobD said:Apparently there are now 30 whole days to save the NHS. Things are looking up...
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Yes, I agree. But then I never thought otherwise. A deal has always seemed most likely to me. It is the sane, rational thing to do. However, it will require Mrs May to face down not only the Tory right in Parliament, but also the anti-European, right-wing press. A big majority will allow her to do the first (assuming the newcomers are not on the right), but the second will all be about her willingness to face bad headlines. And up to now, as a minister and then as Prime Minister, that is something she has never shown any appetite for.Casino_Royale said:
Walking away is in neither side's interest.SouthamObserver said:
More to the point - the EU27 continue to know that the UK walking away does a lot more harm to the UK than anyone else. There really is no getting round this.williamglenn said:
Verhofstadt was also calling for a special status for Northern Ireland in the same piece. It's just a good cop/bad cop routine.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:RobD said:According to the Telegraph, everyone's favourite European Commission President has described the leaks of the meeting a few weeks ago as a "serious mistake". Well duh...
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
Having the first place.
The EU can re-establish pan-continental political (and, therefore, economic) stability most effectively by reaching a *reasonable* arrangement between the UK and the EU.
And, yes, the EU and UK will disagree on what is "reasonable".
The EU will want the UK to be seen to pay a price, and look worse-off and marginalised, from leaving the EU. However, and I think this is the crucial bit: the political risk of the EU breaking-up has diminished (at least in the short term) and the bigger risk for the EU now is pushing the UK too hard, such that talks totally break down, and May walks away.
If that did occur that could be introducing a new political/economic destabilising factor in Europe (think: a chastened diamond-Brexit UK imposing very tough immigration quotas on Eastern Europe, giving unemployed youth there nowhere to go, plus the economic ripples of a slump in trade between the UK and EU resulting from formal tariff barriers, and possibly EIRE kicking up an awful fuss, and perhaps even threatening to Leave themselves)
So: a very hard negotiation to come, certainly. But the EU will seek a deal: not because it's in our interests, but because it's in theirs.
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It would help a little.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that is the least of his problems....TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn really really needs to learn cadence.
I mean he's looking a lot smarter today, albeit I'm unimpressed by the smallness of the knot in his tie.0 -
I am more scared about what he is saying...He is threatening there will be a day of reckoning for the rich if he gets elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
It would help a little.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that is the least of his problems....TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn really really needs to learn cadence.
I mean he's looking a lot smarter today, albeit I'm unimpressed by the smallness of the knot in his tie.0 -
May the Merciless about to unleash hot hail?Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Flash, Flash! I love you, but we only 14 hours to save the NHS!"RobD said:Apparently there are now 30 whole days to save the NHS. Things are looking up...
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A dramatic game changing gesture is needed to save Labour from electoral catastrophe.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that is the least of his problems....TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn really really needs to learn cadence.
Corbyn will have to shave off his beard.0 -
"Fascust*!"FrancisUrquhart said:It is interesting that jezzas left wing pitch never mentions immigration....One of the biggest concerns of those most affected by large class sizes and high rents.
(* Tony pronunciation)0 -
I've always known when the revolution comes, I'll be one of the first against the wall, for so many reasons.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am more scared about what he is saying...He is threatening there will be a day of reckoning for the rich if he gets elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
It would help a little.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that is the least of his problems....TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn really really needs to learn cadence.
I mean he's looking a lot smarter today, albeit I'm unimpressed by the smallness of the knot in his tie.0 -
If energy companies can't make money out of people too busy/unaware that their standard tariffs are bad value, they won't be able to offer cheaper special tariffs to the savvy.
It's a bit like banks making a fortune out of high overdraft fees etc which allows them to offer free banking by default to, er, the likes of me.
Smells like a bad idea. But if the election really is about hospital car parks and standard tariffs for leccy, well it's a sad state of affairs
Where are the big ideas?! Where is the vision, the leadership, the forward-looking era defining change?
An uninspiring election with at best a fairly obvious least worst option. Tory win by default. Meh
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The EU will not dictate the deal.SouthamObserver said:
The EU will dictate the deal. The UK will get some say in the details of how it is implemented. Or the UK will walk away and inflict significant harm on itself. That was true on 24th June 2016, it was true last month, it is true today and it will continue to be true in the future. May has promised that she will negotiate a deal that will leave the UK stronger, more united and more prosperous. We shall see.williamglenn said:
The EU is seeking a deal. That much is not in doubt. The question is on whose terms?Casino_Royale said:So: a very hard negotiation to come, certainly. But the EU will seek a deal: not because it's in our interests, but because it's in theirs.
The EU has laid out a fairly detailed roadmap for a slow and orderly process. How hard or soft our Brexit ends up being depends to a large extent on how long we are prepared to wait.0 -
I appear have accidentally tuned into an old broadcast of Hugo Chávez....0
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4 weeks and that group could be running the country...Gives me sleepless nights!0
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I think that's fair.FF43 said:
I agree with both your points (and it always was going to be a genuine negotiation, albeit skewed towards the EU position). For this to work the only people that need to be impressed by Theresa May's Blazing Saddles gambit are the British public who won't notice a deal that is a bit worse that it would be without it.Casino_Royale said:
The third point follows from the second.FF43 said:
I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Walking away simply guarantees no deal. We need a deal, and will realise that sooner or later. The EU wants a deal, essentially on their terms, and has structured their position accordingly.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
I think the leak was counterproductive from the EU point of view, although quite interesting from mine. When you are in the stronger position, it pays to be polite.
She is willing to call them out in public on underhand tactics to give herself political cover in case the worst happens.
Therefore, I think there now will be a genuine negotiation (although still the EU has the stronger hand) rather than an absolute "take it or leave it".
It's Kabuki, but the risk is that Mrs May actually believes her own rhetoric and walking away becomes the objective rather than an act.
It's game theory but they need to believe that May is crazy enough to walk away (as the EU would see it) if the UK is to get the best UK-EU deal possible.0 -
Avast, Cap'n Doc! Glad you are on because I came across this site earlier this morning:Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Flash, Flash! I love you, but we only 14 hours to save the NHS!"RobD said:Apparently there are now 30 whole days to save the NHS. Things are looking up...
http://www.psul4all.free-online.co.uk/intro.htm
It gives the timetables for all UK "Parliamentary" trains. You probably know about it but I wanted to make sure.
Also are you aware that the last two bubble trains (class 121) will be withdrawn from service on the 19th of this month. details here:
https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2017/05/02/just-two-weeks-left-to-ride-the-bubble-railway-line/
Arrrgh, ye lubbers. Shiver me timbers. Else.0 -
I think what will be more important is what's NOT in the Tory manifesto rather than what's in. I think it's not only Brexit where May is looking for a big majority, but a lot on the domestic agenda as well.JonCisBack said:If energy companies can't make money out of people too busy/unaware that their standard tariffs are bad value, they won't be able to offer cheaper special tariffs to the savvy.
It's a bit like banks making a fortune out of high overdraft fees etc which allows them to offer free banking by default to, er, the likes of me.
Smells like a bad idea. But if the election really is about hospital car parks and standard tariffs for leccy, well it's a sad state of affairs
Where are the big ideas?! Where is the vision, the leadership, the forward-looking era defining change?
An uninspiring election with at best a fairly obvious least worst option. Tory win by default. Meh
I think we'll see basic rate of income tax going up and changes to NI amongst other things with the revenue raised being used to fund social care and a reduction in Corporation tax0 -
The tie is useful. Its owner, OTOH.....TheScreamingEagles said:
It would help a little.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that is the least of his problems....TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn really really needs to learn cadence.
I mean he's looking a lot smarter today, albeit I'm unimpressed by the smallness of the knot in his tie.0 -
Mr. Eagles, crimes against fashion? Criminal lack of classical knowledge? Cricketing treason?0
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Agreed.Casino_Royale said:
The EU will not dictate the deal.SouthamObserver said:
The EU will dictate the deal. The UK will get some say in the details of how it is implemented. Or the UK will walk away and inflict significant harm on itself. That was true on 24th June 2016, it was true last month, it is true today and it will continue to be true in the future. May has promised that she will negotiate a deal that will leave the UK stronger, more united and more prosperous. We shall see.williamglenn said:
The EU is seeking a deal. That much is not in doubt. The question is on whose terms?Casino_Royale said:So: a very hard negotiation to come, certainly. But the EU will seek a deal: not because it's in our interests, but because it's in theirs.
The EU has laid out a fairly detailed roadmap for a slow and orderly process. How hard or soft our Brexit ends up being depends to a large extent on how long we are prepared to wait.
The idea that there is a single economic and social outcome for the EU ignores the reality of the situation.
Some nations - example, Croatia - have virtually no interest one way or the other.
Others - example, Poland, Ireland - are in it up to their necks.0 -
The first phase will be about money, people and Ireland. Do you have any red lines on any of those issues that would make you have doubts about the strength of our position if they were crossed?Casino_Royale said:
The EU will not dictate the deal.SouthamObserver said:
The EU will dictate the deal. The UK will get some say in the details of how it is implemented. Or the UK will walk away and inflict significant harm on itself. That was true on 24th June 2016, it was true last month, it is true today and it will continue to be true in the future. May has promised that she will negotiate a deal that will leave the UK stronger, more united and more prosperous. We shall see.williamglenn said:
The EU is seeking a deal. That much is not in doubt. The question is on whose terms?Casino_Royale said:So: a very hard negotiation to come, certainly. But the EU will seek a deal: not because it's in our interests, but because it's in theirs.
The EU has laid out a fairly detailed roadmap for a slow and orderly process. How hard or soft our Brexit ends up being depends to a large extent on how long we are prepared to wait.0 -
She faced bad headlines over the EAW, her equivocation before and during the referendum campaign, and the repeatedly missed immigration target.SouthamObserver said:
Yes, I agree. But then I never thought otherwise. A deal has always seemed most likely to me. It is the sane, rational thing to do. However, it will require Mrs May to face down not only the Tory right in Parliament, but also the anti-European, right-wing press. A big majority will allow her to do the first (assuming the newcomers are not on the right), but the second will all be about her willingness to face bad headlines. And up to now, as a minister and then as Prime Minister, that is something she has never shown any appetite for.Casino_Royale said:
Walking away is in neither side's interest.SouthamObserver said:
More to the point - the EU27 continue to know that the UK walking away does a lot more harm to the UK than anyone else. There really is no getting round this.williamglenn said:
Verhofstadt was also calling for a special status for Northern Ireland in the same piece. It's just a good cop/bad cop routine.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:RobD said:According to the Telegraph, everyone's favourite European Commission President has described the leaks of the meeting a few weeks ago as a "serious mistake". Well duh...
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
Having the first place.
The EU can re-establish pan-continental political (and, therefore, economic) stability most effectively by reaching a *reasonable* arrangement between the UK and the EU.
She will also face them around about end 2018-to mid 2019 as the shape and reality of the Brexit takes effect, and the transition period kicks in. But she'll be able to declare some political victories by the 2022GE.
So I expect she'll ride it out.0 -
Those negotiations will probably go nowhere if the EU keeps up with the 100bn euro demands.williamglenn said:
The first phase will be about money, people and Ireland. Do you have any red lines on any of those issues that would make you have doubts about the strength of our position if they were crossed?Casino_Royale said:
The EU will not dictate the deal.SouthamObserver said:
The EU will dictate the deal. The UK will get some say in the details of how it is implemented. Or the UK will walk away and inflict significant harm on itself. That was true on 24th June 2016, it was true last month, it is true today and it will continue to be true in the future. May has promised that she will negotiate a deal that will leave the UK stronger, more united and more prosperous. We shall see.williamglenn said:
The EU is seeking a deal. That much is not in doubt. The question is on whose terms?Casino_Royale said:So: a very hard negotiation to come, certainly. But the EU will seek a deal: not because it's in our interests, but because it's in theirs.
The EU has laid out a fairly detailed roadmap for a slow and orderly process. How hard or soft our Brexit ends up being depends to a large extent on how long we are prepared to wait.0 -
This why the right wing, anti-European Tory press is so important. Can May get a deal from the EU that will keep the editors onside? Hmmm. If she can't, will she risk their wrath and do a deal anyway because it is in the UK's best interests, or will she walk because that will get her the best headlines?FF43 said:
I agree with both your points (and it always was going to be a genuine negotiation, albeit skewed towards the EU position). For this to work the only people that need to be impressed by Theresa May's Blazing Saddles gambit are the British public who won't notice a deal that is a bit worse that it would be without it.Casino_Royale said:
The third point follows from the second.FF43 said:
I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Walking away simply guarantees no deal. We need a deal, and will realise that sooner or later. The EU wants a deal, essentially on their terms, and has structured their position accordingly.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
I think the leak was counterproductive from the EU point of view, although quite interesting from mine. When you are in the stronger position, it pays to be polite.
She is willing to call them out in public on underhand tactics to give herself political cover in case the worst happens.
Therefore, I think there now will be a genuine negotiation (although still the EU has the stronger hand) rather than an absolute "take it or leave it".
It's Kabuki, but the risk is that Mrs May actually believes her own rhetoric and walking away becomes the objective rather than an act.
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Lol!!MonikerDiCanio said:
A dramatic game changing gesture is needed to save Labour from electoral catastrophe.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that is the least of his problems....TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn really really needs to learn cadence.
Corbyn will have to shave off his beard.
U r in good form today, Moniker. What did you have on your cornflakes?0 -
I have dug a hole under the wall for emergency escapes!TheScreamingEagles said:
I've always known when the revolution comes, I'll be one of the first against the wall, for so many reasons.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am more scared about what he is saying...He is threatening there will be a day of reckoning for the rich if he gets elected.TheScreamingEagles said:
It would help a little.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that is the least of his problems....TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn really really needs to learn cadence.
I mean he's looking a lot smarter today, albeit I'm unimpressed by the smallness of the knot in his tie.0 -
The Irish have told the EU theirs.williamglenn said:
The first phase will be about money, people and Ireland. Do you have any red lines on any of those issues that would make you have doubts about the strength of our position if they were crossed?Casino_Royale said:
The EU will not dictate the deal.SouthamObserver said:
The EU will dictate the deal. The UK will get some say in the details of how it is implemented. Or the UK will walk away and inflict significant harm on itself. That was true on 24th June 2016, it was true last month, it is true today and it will continue to be true in the future. May has promised that she will negotiate a deal that will leave the UK stronger, more united and more prosperous. We shall see.williamglenn said:
The EU is seeking a deal. That much is not in doubt. The question is on whose terms?Casino_Royale said:So: a very hard negotiation to come, certainly. But the EU will seek a deal: not because it's in our interests, but because it's in theirs.
The EU has laid out a fairly detailed roadmap for a slow and orderly process. How hard or soft our Brexit ends up being depends to a large extent on how long we are prepared to wait.
They want free trade with the UK, freedom of movement with the UK, no border with the UK (a technical solution is inadequate) and would quite like to keep their farm subsidies.
Can the Irish do a deal with the EU26?0 -
"Money, people and Ireland". Looks like a winning hand for the UK.williamglenn said:
The first phase will be about money, people and Ireland. Do you have any red lines on any of those issues that would make you have doubts about the strength of our position if they were crossed?Casino_Royale said:
The EU will not dictate the deal.SouthamObserver said:
The EU will dictate the deal. The UK will get some say in the details of how it is implemented. Or the UK will walk away and inflict significant harm on itself. That was true on 24th June 2016, it was true last month, it is true today and it will continue to be true in the future. May has promised that she will negotiate a deal that will leave the UK stronger, more united and more prosperous. We shall see.williamglenn said:
The EU is seeking a deal. That much is not in doubt. The question is on whose terms?Casino_Royale said:So: a very hard negotiation to come, certainly. But the EU will seek a deal: not because it's in our interests, but because it's in theirs.
The EU has laid out a fairly detailed roadmap for a slow and orderly process. How hard or soft our Brexit ends up being depends to a large extent on how long we are prepared to wait.0 -
If only Jeremy had taken the fashion tip advice meted out by PBers, his ratings would soar...0
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The key to the deal is not year 1 but year 5.williamglenn said:
The first phase will be about money, people and Ireland. Do you have any red lines on any of those issues that would make you have doubts about the strength of our position if they were crossed?Casino_Royale said:
The EU will not dictate the deal.SouthamObserver said:
The EU will dictate the deal. The UK will get some say in the details of how it is implemented. Or the UK will walk away and inflict significant harm on itself. That was true on 24th June 2016, it was true last month, it is true today and it will continue to be true in the future. May has promised that she will negotiate a deal that will leave the UK stronger, more united and more prosperous. We shall see.williamglenn said:
The EU is seeking a deal. That much is not in doubt. The question is on whose terms?Casino_Royale said:So: a very hard negotiation to come, certainly. But the EU will seek a deal: not because it's in our interests, but because it's in theirs.
The EU has laid out a fairly detailed roadmap for a slow and orderly process. How hard or soft our Brexit ends up being depends to a large extent on how long we are prepared to wait.
Suspect most Eurosceptics could live with transitory payments or terms as long as those disappear or taper down after a few years.
Paying £20Bn, every year, forever, is not on.0 -
Ahem.SimonStClare said:If only Jeremy had taken the fashion tip advice meted out by PBers, his ratings would soar...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/11/some-fashion-advice-for-jeremy-corbyn/0 -
Both the UK and the EU want a deal on the last two, and are looking for one. The negotiations here should be constructive, if tense, at times. Probably mostly related to arbitration and the role of the ECJ.williamglenn said:
The first phase will be about money, people and Ireland. Do you have any red lines on any of those issues that would make you have doubts about the strength of our position if they were crossed?Casino_Royale said:
The EU will not dictate the deal.SouthamObserver said:
The EU will dictate the deal. The UK will get some say in the details of how it is implemented. Or the UK will walk away and inflict significant harm on itself. That was true on 24th June 2016, it was true last month, it is true today and it will continue to be true in the future. May has promised that she will negotiate a deal that will leave the UK stronger, more united and more prosperous. We shall see.williamglenn said:
The EU is seeking a deal. That much is not in doubt. The question is on whose terms?Casino_Royale said:So: a very hard negotiation to come, certainly. But the EU will seek a deal: not because it's in our interests, but because it's in theirs.
The EU has laid out a fairly detailed roadmap for a slow and orderly process. How hard or soft our Brexit ends up being depends to a large extent on how long we are prepared to wait.
The stickler is the first, but everyone knows the 50bn-100bn isn't the EU's bottom line, and it could be covered by, say, an upfront 10bn "divorce" payment in FY2018-19, and then continuing our net current EU contributions for 3 more years to the FY 2021-22.
Net result: the UK would have paid £38bn to "Leave".
May can then reallocate the £9bn+ from the budget in the GE2022 manifesto, probably to the NHS, and stiff Labour with it.0 -
It's Brexit poker.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's fair.FF43 said:
I agree with both your points (and it always was going to be a genuine negotiation, albeit skewed towards the EU position). For this to work the only people that need to be impressed by Theresa May's Blazing Saddles gambit are the British public who won't notice a deal that is a bit worse that it would be without it.Casino_Royale said:
The third point follows from the second.FF43 said:
I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Walking away simply guarantees no deal. We need a deal, and will realise that sooner or later. The EU wants a deal, essentially on their terms, and has structured their position accordingly.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
I think the leak was counterproductive from the EU point of view, although quite interesting from mine. When you are in the stronger position, it pays to be polite.
She is willing to call them out in public on underhand tactics to give herself political cover in case the worst happens.
Therefore, I think there now will be a genuine negotiation (although still the EU has the stronger hand) rather than an absolute "take it or leave it".
It's Kabuki, but the risk is that Mrs May actually believes her own rhetoric and walking away becomes the objective rather than an act.
It's game theory but they need to believe that May is crazy enough to walk away (as the EU would see it) if the UK is to get the best UK-EU deal possible.
Normal poker rules apply except that the UK has its cards turned face upwards on the table.0 -
Hopefully more winning than Le Pen in that last debate.MonikerDiCanio said:
"Money, people and Ireland". Looks like a winning hand for the UK.williamglenn said:
The first phase will be about money, people and Ireland. Do you have any red lines on any of those issues that would make you have doubts about the strength of our position if they were crossed?Casino_Royale said:
The EU will not dictate the deal.SouthamObserver said:
The EU will dictate the deal. The UK will get some say in the details of how it is implemented. Or the UK will walk away and inflict significant harm on itself. That was true on 24th June 2016, it was true last month, it is true today and it will continue to be true in the future. May has promised that she will negotiate a deal that will leave the UK stronger, more united and more prosperous. We shall see.williamglenn said:
The EU is seeking a deal. That much is not in doubt. The question is on whose terms?Casino_Royale said:So: a very hard negotiation to come, certainly. But the EU will seek a deal: not because it's in our interests, but because it's in theirs.
The EU has laid out a fairly detailed roadmap for a slow and orderly process. How hard or soft our Brexit ends up being depends to a large extent on how long we are prepared to wait.0 -
Really? How does it help Corbyn? One more seat where Labour are waving the white flag.Sandpit said:
I'd have voted LD to give Zac the message in Richmond, but with this I'd now support him. How many others like me will be massively turned off by the idea that voting LD helps Corbyn?TheScreamingEagles said:
And it's one stakeboard, BTW.
Get a grip.0 -
72s?Peter_the_Punter said:
It's Brexit poker.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's fair.FF43 said:
I agree with both your points (and it always was going to be a genuine negotiation, albeit skewed towards the EU position). For this to work the only people that need to be impressed by Theresa May's Blazing Saddles gambit are the British public who won't notice a deal that is a bit worse that it would be without it.Casino_Royale said:
The third point follows from the second.FF43 said:
I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Walking away simply guarantees no deal. We need a deal, and will realise that sooner or later. The EU wants a deal, essentially on their terms, and has structured their position accordingly.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
I think the leak was counterproductive from the EU point of view, although quite interesting from mine. When you are in the stronger position, it pays to be polite.
She is willing to call them out in public on underhand tactics to give herself political cover in case the worst happens.
Therefore, I think there now will be a genuine negotiation (although still the EU has the stronger hand) rather than an absolute "take it or leave it".
It's Kabuki, but the risk is that Mrs May actually believes her own rhetoric and walking away becomes the objective rather than an act.
It's game theory but they need to believe that May is crazy enough to walk away (as the EU would see it) if the UK is to get the best UK-EU deal possible.
Normal poker rules apply except that the UK has its cards turned face upwards on the table.0 -
The exact opposite.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, crimes against fashion? Criminal lack of classical knowledge? Cricketing treason?
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There will be a Lib Dem candidate in SW Surrey.chestnut said:
So we can safely assume that the Lib Dems are essentially Watermelons and Corbynistas?TheScreamingEagles said:I assume this has been discussed? Seems brave considering Hunt got nearly 60% of the vote last time.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/861845167061565441
Sounds like a bright idea.0 -
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.......And you break table etiquette by shouting at your opponentPeter_the_Punter said:
It's Brexit poker.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's fair.FF43 said:
I agree with both your points (and it always was going to be a genuine negotiation, albeit skewed towards the EU position). For this to work the only people that need to be impressed by Theresa May's Blazing Saddles gambit are the British public who won't notice a deal that is a bit worse that it would be without it.Casino_Royale said:
The third point follows from the second.FF43 said:
I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Walking away simply guarantees no deal. We need a deal, and will realise that sooner or later. The EU wants a deal, essentially on their terms, and has structured their position accordingly.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
I think the leak was counterproductive from the EU point of view, although quite interesting from mine. When you are in the stronger position, it pays to be polite.
She is willing to call them out in public on underhand tactics to give herself political cover in case the worst happens.
Therefore, I think there now will be a genuine negotiation (although still the EU has the stronger hand) rather than an absolute "take it or leave it".
It's Kabuki, but the risk is that Mrs May actually believes her own rhetoric and walking away becomes the objective rather than an act.
It's game theory but they need to believe that May is crazy enough to walk away (as the EU would see it) if the UK is to get the best UK-EU deal possible.
Normal poker rules apply except that the UK has its cards turned face upwards on the table.0 -
Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?0
-
Or to put it less contentiously, that she has a BATNA (perhaps her equivalent of Thatcher's TINA).Casino_Royale said:
I think that's fair.FF43 said:
I agree with both your points (and it always was going to be a genuine negotiation, albeit skewed towards the EU position). For this to work the only people that need to be impressed by Theresa May's Blazing Saddles gambit are the British public who won't notice a deal that is a bit worse that it would be without it.Casino_Royale said:
The third point follows from the second.FF43 said:
I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Walking away simply guarantees no deal. We need a deal, and will realise that sooner or later. The EU wants a deal, essentially on their terms, and has structured their position accordingly.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
I think the leak was counterproductive from the EU point of view, although quite interesting from mine. When you are in the stronger position, it pays to be polite.
She is willing to call them out in public on underhand tactics to give herself political cover in case the worst happens.
Therefore, I think there now will be a genuine negotiation (although still the EU has the stronger hand) rather than an absolute "take it or leave it".
It's Kabuki, but the risk is that Mrs May actually believes her own rhetoric and walking away becomes the objective rather than an act.
It's game theory but they need to believe that May is crazy enough to walk away (as the EU would see it) if the UK is to get the best UK-EU deal possible.0 -
Not that good, although from some of the comments I read on here it seems some think it's a great hand.IanB2 said:
72s?Peter_the_Punter said:
It's Brexit poker.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's fair.FF43 said:
I agree with both your points (and it always was going to be a genuine negotiation, albeit skewed towards the EU position). For this to work the only people that need to be impressed by Theresa May's Blazing Saddles gambit are the British public who won't notice a deal that is a bit worse that it would be without it.Casino_Royale said:
The third point follows from the second.FF43 said:
I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Walking away simply guarantees no deal. We need a deal, and will realise that sooner or later. The EU wants a deal, essentially on their terms, and has structured their position accordingly.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
I think the leak was counterproductive from the EU point of view, although quite interesting from mine. When you are in the stronger position, it pays to be polite.
She is willing to call them out in public on underhand tactics to give herself political cover in case the worst happens.
Therefore, I think there now will be a genuine negotiation (although still the EU has the stronger hand) rather than an absolute "take it or leave it".
It's Kabuki, but the risk is that Mrs May actually believes her own rhetoric and walking away becomes the objective rather than an act.
It's game theory but they need to believe that May is crazy enough to walk away (as the EU would see it) if the UK is to get the best UK-EU deal possible.
Normal poker rules apply except that the UK has its cards turned face upwards on the table.0 -
All in London.williamglenn said:Does anyone fancy being a tour guide?
https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/861893606055055362
0 -
We will soon start talking about annual sums rather than this bogus lump sum.TGOHF said:The key to the deal is not year 1 but year 5.
Suspect most Eurosceptics could live with transitory payments or terms as long as those disappear or taper down after a few years.
Paying £20Bn, every year, forever, is not on.
Pensions €9bn? It's between £100m-£200m per year.
ESI funds €22bn? Zero from 2021.
Euro Development €2bn? Overseas aid budget
Loans and Guarantees €12bn? Do they actually cost anything annually?
The EU also have to work out what they wish to do with EIB membership. The EU has to rewrite it's treaties to allow the UK to stay a shareholder or pay out £3bn or so if they don't.
0 -
TouchéMonikerDiCanio said:
Greybeard. Le mot juste.edmundintokyo said:
Lol. And Mrs Robinson issues aside, it's not uncommon for young upstarts to pick an experienced greybeard as number 2. Obama picking Biden is the obvious recent one.MonikerDiCanio said:" My view is that Macron is young and will go for someone from his generation. "
There are grounds for doubting that Macron goes for those from his generation.0 -
If anyone involved with the campaigns is reading this, if you're going to call a bus a battle bus then you should at least make it look like this:
0 -
It is. If we keep paying out oodles and oodles of cash and allow their citizens free access to our shores, the EU has plenty incentive to play nice.MonikerDiCanio said:
"Money, people and Ireland". Looks like a winning hand for the UK.williamglenn said:
The first phase will be about money, people and Ireland. Do you have any red lines on any of those issues that would make you have doubts about the strength of our position if they were crossed?Casino_Royale said:
The EU will not dictate the deal.SouthamObserver said:
The EU will dictate the deal. The UK will get some say in the details of how it is implemented. Or the UK will walk away and inflict significant harm on itself. That was true on 24th June 2016, it was true last month, it is true today and it will continue to be true in the future. May has promised that she will negotiate a deal that will leave the UK stronger, more united and more prosperous. We shall see.williamglenn said:
The EU is seeking a deal. That much is not in doubt. The question is on whose terms?Casino_Royale said:So: a very hard negotiation to come, certainly. But the EU will seek a deal: not because it's in our interests, but because it's in theirs.
The EU has laid out a fairly detailed roadmap for a slow and orderly process. How hard or soft our Brexit ends up being depends to a large extent on how long we are prepared to wait.0 -
Not a bad analogy!Peter_the_Punter said:
It's Brexit poker.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's fair.FF43 said:
I agree with both your points (and it always was going to be a genuine negotiation, albeit skewed towards the EU position). For this to work the only people that need to be impressed by Theresa May's Blazing Saddles gambit are the British public who won't notice a deal that is a bit worse that it would be without it.Casino_Royale said:
The third point follows from the second.FF43 said:
I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Walking away simply guarantees no deal. We need a deal, and will realise that sooner or later. The EU wants a deal, essentially on their terms, and has structured their position accordingly.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
I think the leak was counterproductive from the EU point of view, although quite interesting from mine. When you are in the stronger position, it pays to be polite.
She is willing to call them out in public on underhand tactics to give herself political cover in case the worst happens.
Therefore, I think there now will be a genuine negotiation (although still the EU has the stronger hand) rather than an absolute "take it or leave it".
It's Kabuki, but the risk is that Mrs May actually believes her own rhetoric and walking away becomes the objective rather than an act.
It's game theory but they need to believe that May is crazy enough to walk away (as the EU would see it) if the UK is to get the best UK-EU deal possible.
Normal poker rules apply except that the UK has its cards turned face upwards on the table.0 -
Chortle. I see George is enjoying himself at The Standard
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/8619005708688097280 -
Not watched it, but seems Corbyn's big launch was as utterly crap as expected.
Now he is off on a tour of Momentum groups in safe NW seats.
Labour have effectively written this off already.0 -
It will be market rates, whatever they are. If you are a member of the club, the expenditure is divvied up between the members according to a formula. Outside the club, we pay whatever the access is worth to us, which is not necessarily less than the membership fee. The corollary to high fees is that we become more valuable to the EU and member countries and therefore regain some influence.TGOHF said:
The key to the deal is not year 1 but year 5.
Suspect most Eurosceptics could live with transitory payments or terms as long as those disappear or taper down after a few years.
Paying £20Bn, every year, forever, is not on.
0 -
Presumably the pensions number is nowhere near the annual peak, as only a small fraction of historic and current Eurocrats, MEPs will be of pensionable age? (And I suspect that the number being thrown around is a simple sum of all future payments without any discounting of liabilities.)chestnut said:
We will soon start talking about annual sums rather than this bogus lump sum.TGOHF said:The key to the deal is not year 1 but year 5.
Suspect most Eurosceptics could live with transitory payments or terms as long as those disappear or taper down after a few years.
Paying £20Bn, every year, forever, is not on.
Pensions €9bn? It's between £100m-£200m per year.
ESI funds €22bn? Zero from 2021.
Euro Development €2bn? Overseas aid budget
Loans and Guarantees €12bn? Do they actually cost anything annually?
The EU also have to work out what they wish to do with EIB membership. The EU has to rewrite it's treaties to allow the UK to stay a shareholder or pay out £3bn or so if they don't.0 -
LOL.edmundintokyo said:If anyone involved with the campaigns is reading this, if you're going to call a bus a battle bus then you should at least make it look like this:
May's army of canvassers, coming to a town near you soon:
http://videoandfilmmaker.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/FRD-DS-00253.jpeg0 -
Too bloody accurate, I regret.Casino_Royale said:
Not a bad analogy!Peter_the_Punter said:
It's Brexit poker.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's fair.FF43 said:
I agree with both your points (and it always was going to be a genuine negotiation, albeit skewed towards the EU position). For this to work the only people that need to be impressed by Theresa May's Blazing Saddles gambit are the British public who won't notice a deal that is a bit worse that it would be without it.Casino_Royale said:
The third point follows from the second.FF43 said:
I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Walking away simply guarantees no deal. We need a deal, and will realise that sooner or later. The EU wants a deal, essentially on their terms, and has structured their position accordingly.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
I think the leak was counterproductive from the EU point of view, although quite interesting from mine. When you are in the stronger position, it pays to be polite.
She is willing to call them out in public on underhand tactics to give herself political cover in case the worst happens.
Therefore, I think there now will be a genuine negotiation (although still the EU has the stronger hand) rather than an absolute "take it or leave it".
It's Kabuki, but the risk is that Mrs May actually believes her own rhetoric and walking away becomes the objective rather than an act.
It's game theory but they need to believe that May is crazy enough to walk away (as the EU would see it) if the UK is to get the best UK-EU deal possible.
Normal poker rules apply except that the UK has its cards turned face upwards on the table.
If our negotiators achive anything even half-decent it will only be because the EU allowed it - and then only because it was in the EU's best interest to do so.
0 -
The Evening Standard appears to have become the official opposition. So far quite a bit more effectively than Team Twat.0
-
I think we're looking at the next editor of The Times.FrancisUrquhart said:The Evening Standard appears to have become the official opposition. So far quite a bit more effectively than Team Twat.
0 -
He's already got seven jobs....TheScreamingEagles said:
I think we're looking at the next editor of The Times.FrancisUrquhart said:The Evening Standard appears to have become the official opposition. So far quite a bit more effectively than Team Twat.
0 -
And they wonder why the Bog Standard is given away for free…! 0
-
He's a modern day polymath.RobD said:
He's already got seven jobs....TheScreamingEagles said:
I think we're looking at the next editor of The Times.FrancisUrquhart said:The Evening Standard appears to have become the official opposition. So far quite a bit more effectively than Team Twat.
0 -
The total liabilities was a figure from a CER paper - the annual figure was in the Telegraph I think - (I've applied an 8-16% range contribution from the UK to the existing annual EU cost). Yes, I presume it will rise over time.rcs1000 said:
Presumably the pensions number is nowhere near the annual peak, as only a small fraction of historic and current Eurocrats, MEPs will be of pensionable age? (And I suspect that the number being thrown around is a simple sum of all future payments without any discounting of liabilities.)chestnut said:
We will soon start talking about annual sums rather than this bogus lump sum.TGOHF said:The key to the deal is not year 1 but year 5.
Suspect most Eurosceptics could live with transitory payments or terms as long as those disappear or taper down after a few years.
Paying £20Bn, every year, forever, is not on.
Pensions €9bn? It's between £100m-£200m per year.
ESI funds €22bn? Zero from 2021.
Euro Development €2bn? Overseas aid budget
Loans and Guarantees €12bn? Do they actually cost anything annually?
The EU also have to work out what they wish to do with EIB membership. The EU has to rewrite it's treaties to allow the UK to stay a shareholder or pay out £3bn or so if they don't.
0 -
Afternoon all. Tories capping energy prices? What's next, Corbyn banning the burka?
We live in interesting times0 -
I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.
This could yet be an unexpected election.0 -
I think he's gone the Full Frosties....Peter_the_Punter said:
Lol!!MonikerDiCanio said:
A dramatic game changing gesture is needed to save Labour from electoral catastrophe.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that is the least of his problems....TheScreamingEagles said:Jeremy Corbyn really really needs to learn cadence.
Corbyn will have to shave off his beard.
U r in good form today, Moniker. What did you have on your cornflakes?0 -
Phew. Most reassuring post I've read all day.Roger said:I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.
This could yet be an unexpected election.0 -
I missed the Welsh polling update yesterday - were they rowing back a bit from Tories Win Rhondda?0
-
That applies to all trade negotiations, of course. They have to be win-win, and can't be win-lose, or the other side won't take them.Peter_the_Punter said:
Too bloody accurate, I regret.Casino_Royale said:
Not a bad analogy!Peter_the_Punter said:
It's Brexit poker.Casino_Royale said:
I think that's fair.FF43 said:
I agree with both your points (and it always was going to be a genuine negotiation, albeit skewed towards the EU position). For this to work the only people that need to be impressed by Theresa May's Blazing Saddles gambit are the British public who won't notice a deal that is a bit worse that it would be without it.Casino_Royale said:
The third point follows from the second.FF43 said:
I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Walking away simply guarantees no deal. We need a deal, and will realise that sooner or later. The EU wants a deal, essentially on their terms, and has structured their position accordingly.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
I think the leak was counterproductive from the EU point of view, although quite interesting from mine. When you are in the stronger position, it pays to be polite.
She is willing to call them out in public on underhand tactics to give herself political cover in case the worst happens.
Therefore, I think there now will be a genuine negotiation (although still the EU has the stronger hand) rather than an absolute "take it or leave it".
It's Kabuki, but the risk is that Mrs May actually believes her own rhetoric and walking away becomes the objective rather than an act.
It's game theory but they need to believe that May is crazy enough to walk away (as the EU would see it) if the UK is to get the best UK-EU deal possible.
Normal poker rules apply except that the UK has its cards turned face upwards on the table.
If our negotiators achive anything even half-decent it will only be because the EU allowed it - and then only because it was in the EU's best interest to do so.
The EU know May will have to politically sell the deal back home, just as they will.0 -
Bollocks.
I was convinced it was going to Anton du Beke, and bet accordingly.
International ballroom champion Shirley Ballas has been named as the new head judge on Strictly Come Dancing.
Nicknamed the Queen of Latin, the 56-year-old will replace Len Goodman when the BBC show returns this autumn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-39856114
I'd be a bit pissed off if I were Craig or Bruno, that they haven't become head judge.0 -
Class war envy and nasty bogeymen, Corbyn’s campaign speech was for the party faithful and them alone. It will not resonate beyond that imo’Roger said:I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.
This could yet be an unexpected election.0 -
Mary Beard on Pink Floyd !TheScreamingEagles said:Chortle. I see George is enjoying himself at The Standard
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/861900570868809728
Irresistible.
Osborne's making a tit of himself at The Standard. The nasty little twerp really thinks he's funny.0 -
Tories up 1, labour up 5, Tory lead 6%MarqueeMark said:I missed the Welsh polling update yesterday - were they rowing back a bit from Tories Win Rhondda?
0 -
Mr. Eagles, I haven't paid attention to SCD since they screwed over my excellent Snowdon bets to gerrymander the rules for Tom Chambers, but even I know du Beke never wins.0
-
https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nederland/politiek/nederlandse-politici-blij-met-macron-maar-niet-met-zijn-eu-plannen
Rutte and co. do not think very much of Macron's plans for a European Finance Ministry or deeper defence cooperation. "Southern Europe must reform".0 -
The fairest thing for pensions would be to consider the scheme bankrupt and transfer the U.K. Pensioners / future pensions to the ppt. If it's good enough for us like it's good enough for those eu and ex eu employees.chestnut said:
The total liabilities was a figure from a CER paper - the annual figure was in the Telegraph I think - (I've applied an 8-16% range contribution from the UK to the existing annual EU cost). Yes, I presume it will rise over time.rcs1000 said:
Presumably the pensions number is nowhere near the annual peak, as only a small fraction of historic and current Eurocrats, MEPs will be of pensionable age? (And I suspect that the number being thrown around is a simple sum of all future payments without any discounting of liabilities.)chestnut said:
We will soon start talking about annual sums rather than this bogus lump sum.TGOHF said:The key to the deal is not year 1 but year 5.
Suspect most Eurosceptics could live with transitory payments or terms as long as those disappear or taper down after a few years.
Paying £20Bn, every year, forever, is not on.
Pensions €9bn? It's between £100m-£200m per year.
ESI funds €22bn? Zero from 2021.
Euro Development €2bn? Overseas aid budget
Loans and Guarantees €12bn? Do they actually cost anything annually?
The EU also have to work out what they wish to do with EIB membership. The EU has to rewrite it's treaties to allow the UK to stay a shareholder or pay out £3bn or so if they don't.
0 -
That's really all you need to switch - try USwitch.Casino_Royale said:
Because they make little sense.TOPPING said:
As the bloke said this morning on the radio (energy guy) - people could save more money by switching than with any price control.Sandpit said:
Wasn't Ed's plan price freezing rather than capping?FrancisUrquhart said:I see Tories big thing today is price capping, f##king stupid when Ed came out with it, f##king stupid when Kim Jong May came out with it.
Still a silly idea though, much better is a free market in supply with a regulated company owning the infrastructure.
Go out on the streets and I would bet that three out of five people you meet are on standard tariff rates.
How many people know what an on-peak/off-peak kilowatt hour is? Or surcharge pricing? Or how many "units" they use a month, differentiated by gas and electricity?
Most just know how big their house is, how many people live in it, and what their monthly bills come to.0 -
Casino_Royale said:
I suspect there will be a deal, of sorts. It's in the interests of both parties.Peter_the_Punter said:
That applies to all trade negotiations, of course. They have to be win-win, and can't be win-lose, or the other side won't take them.Casino_Royale said:
Too bloody accurate, I regret.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not a bad analogy!Casino_Royale said:
It's Brexit poker.FF43 said:
I think that's fair.Casino_Royale said:
.FF43 said:
I agree with your first two points, but not your third. Walking away simply guarantees no deal. We need a deal, and will realise that sooner or later. The EU wants a deal, essentially on their terms, and has structured their position accordingly.Casino_Royale said:
It's very telling, coupled with Verhofstadts "cool heads and common sense" piece in the FT, yesterday, it tells us that:
(1) The EU are also very worried about the consequences of a "no deal"
(2) They have realised they can't just browbeat May into making concessions, as they did with Cameron, and they're now no longer 100% sure she won't walk away
May has effectively called their bluff.
I think the leak was counterproductive from the EU point of view, although quite interesting from mine. When you are in the stronger position, it pays to be polite.
It's game theory but they need to believe that May is crazy enough to walk away (as the EU would see it) if the UK is to get the best UK-EU deal possible.
Normal poker rules apply except that the UK has its cards turned face upwards on the table.
If our negotiators achive anything even half-decent it will only be because the EU allowed it - and then only because it was in the EU's best interest to do so.
The EU know May will have to politically sell the deal back home, just as they will.
What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.0 -
Finding bogeymen seems to be the fashion at the moment. It worked for Trump. Never underestimate populism while Hartlipoolians have a vote.SimonStClare said:
Class war envy and nasty bogeymen, Corbyn’s campaign speech was for the party faithful and them alone. It will not resonate beyond that imo’Roger said:I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.
This could yet be an unexpected election.0 -
Lab 2015 voters upweight surgitis dangerwatch & atrocious supplementals for Corbyn mind.dyedwoolie said:
Tories up 1, labour up 5, Tory lead 6%MarqueeMark said:I missed the Welsh polling update yesterday - were they rowing back a bit from Tories Win Rhondda?
0 -
This bodes well for my Con gain Stoke Central bet
https://twitter.com/PhilC2010/status/8618829543222599690 -
Yep I'm on here too. A metric ton of Professor Nuttall's vote to mine.TheScreamingEagles said:This bodes well for my Con gain Stoke Central bet
https://twitter.com/PhilC2010/status/8618829543222599690 -
The trouble is, as an outsider railing against the man on behalf of the forgotten and oppressed few, these days you actually have to look like, if you are not actually a bona fide member of the establishment, with billions, or investment banking, or PPE at Oxford somewhere on your CV.Roger said:
Finding bogeymen seems to be the fashion at the moment. It worked for Trump. Never underestimate populism while Hartlipoolians have a vote.SimonStClare said:
Class war envy and nasty bogeymen, Corbyn’s campaign speech was for the party faithful and them alone. It will not resonate beyond that imo’Roger said:I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.
This could yet be an unexpected election.
Jezza has none of those and is, actually, an outsider. Which is why people will dismiss him. We seem to like our rebels to be a tad more predictable.0 -
HiCasino_Royale said:How many people know what an on-peak/off-peak kilowatt hour is? Or surcharge pricing? Or how many "units" they use a month, differentiated by gas and electricity?
0 -
I love him. All done with a straight face - there are no tanks in Baghdad - or today York Central.Casino_Royale said:
Phew. Most reassuring post I've read all day.Roger said:I just heard a speech to the faithful by Jeremy and I have to admit it was surprisingly good. A cut above anything I heard from Miliband. A bit too much class warfare perhaps but it's the kind of thing that will resonate.
This could yet be an unexpected election.0 -
Theresa May to give a campaign speech in York Central today. Labour MP Rachael Maskell has a majority of just under 7,000.0
-
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
0 -
Perhaps it's time for me to stand with our new party - what's it called these days.. not obsessed with who again, I lose track being so laid back on the matters involved....Scrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
0 -
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal0 -
Because we'll be out of the political Union that is hellbent on centralisation. And because federation was never going to be acceptable to the British people it was a choice between Leaving now or Leaving later - and Leaving later would have been more difficult and more costly.Peter_the_Punter said:What I don't understand is how anybody can think it will be better than the deal we had before as the result of 40 years of Treaty and Trade negotiations.
And if anybody says 'sovereignity', they'll get a punch.0 -
Ask not for whom the Bell tolls, Labour. It tolls for thee...
https://nicktyrone.com/american-football-match-reminds-corbyns-labour/0 -
We're at peak No. 1TheScreamingEagles said:
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal
No. 2 has been and gone
No. 3 exceeds the allowable word limit
Get in first with no. 4, and be ahead of the curve
It is quite shocking that the election will determine who is the local and political MP for four of the coming five years and there may not even be a contest. Rotten Borough or what?0 -
Too late - and that's it party title option no.3.TheScreamingEagles said:
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal0 -
It's rather quaint here I'll have you know.IanB2 said:
We're at peak No. 1TheScreamingEagles said:
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal
No. 2 has been and gone
No. 3 exceeds the allowable word limit
Get in first with no. 4, and be ahead of the curve
It is quite shocking that the election will determine who is the local and political MP for four of the coming five years and there may not even be a contest. Rotten Borough or what?0 -
The "I will never be Speaker" party?TheScreamingEagles said:
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal0 -
Off out to canvas support..... might ask the gaggle of MPs that'll be in our local pub.0
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TheScreamingEagles said:
I might stand in Buckingham, under which banner should I stand underScrapheap_as_was said:
the excitement is reaching fever pitch on the ground here I can tell you.... the brief time the Lib Dem lady was standing then not standing especially.RobD said:Has any other party put forward a candidate in Buckingham? Or could this be the first uncontested seat in decades?
1) Tory
2) The Yes2AV Party
3) The Socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.
4) Gladstonian Liberal
Red Shoes. Blue Heart.
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Farm rates or domestic?Pulpstar said:
HiCasino_Royale said:How many people know what an on-peak/off-peak kilowatt hour is? Or surcharge pricing? Or how many "units" they use a month, differentiated by gas and electricity?
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