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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Macron’s first big decision – choosing his Prime Minister. Chris from Paris looks at the betting
On the previous thread Chris from Paris gave his views on who Macron is going to choose as his first Prime Minister. Betffair has just got a market up. These are Chris’s views with the numbers being the Betfair price when he posted.
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Glorious first
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FPT: In case anyone missed it here's the link to a new Survation poll for ITV (Good Morning Britain).
CON 47%, LAB 30%, LD 7%, UKIP 5%, SNP 5%, GRE 3%, OTH 4%
- Fieldwork 5/6 May
- First poll of new series for ITV GMB
- Telephone
http://survation.com/con-lead-lab-17-points-amid-ukip-decline-new-polling-series-good-morning-britain/0 -
Baxter'd.. just a bit of fun of course:
CON 387, Lab 180, LD 5. Majority 1240 -
You know what would just round the whole thing off - if on the BBC1 Question Time Special on Friday 2 June - 6 days before polling - one of the audience questions to Corbyn is "Do you support the Monarchy?".
When questioned on that subject before he never answers and instead just says "he's not campaigning on that subject".
If he does that again the audience will go crazy and it'll knock another 2% off Labour's final figure.0 -
"First poll of a new series" - But their second poll of the campaign so far.MikeL said:FPT: In case anyone missed it here's the link to a new Survation poll for ITV (Good Morning Britain).
CON 47%, LAB 30%, LD 7%, UKIP 5%, SNP 5%, GRE 3%, OTH 4%
- Fieldwork 5/6 May
- First poll of new series for ITV GMB
- Telephone
http://survation.com/con-lead-lab-17-points-amid-ukip-decline-new-polling-series-good-morning-britain/0 -
I know - but this one is for ITV GMB whereas previous one was Mail on Sunday.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"First poll of a new series" - But their second poll of the campaign so far.MikeL said:FPT: In case anyone missed it here's the link to a new Survation poll for ITV (Good Morning Britain).
CON 47%, LAB 30%, LD 7%, UKIP 5%, SNP 5%, GRE 3%, OTH 4%
- Fieldwork 5/6 May
- First poll of new series for ITV GMB
- Telephone
http://survation.com/con-lead-lab-17-points-amid-ukip-decline-new-polling-series-good-morning-britain/
And I think this one may have a different methodology.0 -
Labour over 50% in London (on a small subsample), so reality might knock a couple of points off the Labour VI.0
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Question for TSE, knowing your love of puns, did you write this headline:
'Evidence behind reports of new baldness cure is a little thin'0 -
Jack is usually talking through his ARSE, so I think the cures he needs are aimed at the other end of the bodyRobD said:
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Thanks Mike!
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The YouGov London subsample has been very variable - showing huge swings between Labour & Con - I wonder if they're not the only one struggling in London?brokenwheel said:Labour over 50% in London (on a small subsample), so reality might knock a couple of points off the Labour VI.
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Morning, Carlotta. London too good for Labour ! Equally, North is too bad !CarlottaVance said:
The YouGov London subsample has been very variable - showing huge swings between Labour & Con - I wonder if they're not the only one struggling in London?brokenwheel said:Labour over 50% in London (on a small subsample), so reality might knock a couple of points off the Labour VI.
Overall, 47 - 30 is about right for now. Telephone poll.0 -
Good morning Surbiton - its not a question of 'good' or 'bad' - its a matter of 'we don't know'! What ever the respective polling shares in London, I very much doubt there's been the 15point swing in a couple of days in London that YouGov has shown!surbiton said:
Morning, Carlotta. London too good for Labour ! Equally, North is too bad !CarlottaVance said:
The YouGov London subsample has been very variable - showing huge swings between Labour & Con - I wonder if they're not the only one struggling in London?brokenwheel said:Labour over 50% in London (on a small subsample), so reality might knock a couple of points off the Labour VI.
Overall, 47 - 30 is about right for now. Telephone poll.0 -
A Conservative candidate for Prime Minister leading on questions regarding public trust over Brexit and Economy would not necessarily be seen as particularly surprising, a Labour Leader not leading on protecting the NHS and to “promote a fairer society” should be of concern given Labour’s policy platform and campigning on these issues
http://survation.com/con-lead-lab-17-points-amid-ukip-decline-new-polling-series-good-morning-britain/0 -
I don't dispute that. That is the problem with subsets which we all get excited about.CarlottaVance said:
Good morning Surbiton - its not a question of 'good' or 'bad' - its a matter of 'we don't know'! What ever the respective polling shares in London, I very much doubt there's been the 15point swing in a couple of days in London that YouGov has shown!surbiton said:
Morning, Carlotta. London too good for Labour ! Equally, North is too bad !CarlottaVance said:
The YouGov London subsample has been very variable - showing huge swings between Labour & Con - I wonder if they're not the only one struggling in London?brokenwheel said:Labour over 50% in London (on a small subsample), so reality might knock a couple of points off the Labour VI.
Overall, 47 - 30 is about right for now. Telephone poll.0 -
A FIGHT has broken out inside the Labour Party after support for mayoral candidate Sion Simon collapsed to hand his Conservative rival Andy Street a narrow victory.
Labour Party factionalism, trade union in-fighting, a lack of enthusiasm from councillors and MPs and a poor support from the London party are all being blamed for the shock defeat by less than one per cent of the vote.
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/how-jeremy-corbyn-feud-lost-130053200 -
Morning. Good thread @Chris_from_Paris
Not a fan of markets where the outcome is one person's choice, (and I screwed up the vote share markets and lost money) so sitting this one out.0 -
Ha ha ha. Awesome job by the WM Tories to steal this one. They got a great candidate in place and put a whole load of support behind him months ago.CarlottaVance said:A FIGHT has broken out inside the Labour Party after support for mayoral candidate Sion Simon collapsed to hand his Conservative rival Andy Street a narrow victory.
Labour Party factionalism, trade union in-fighting, a lack of enthusiasm from councillors and MPs and a poor support from the London party are all being blamed for the shock defeat by less than one per cent of the vote.
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/how-jeremy-corbyn-feud-lost-13005320
Better than that, there's a whole load of people in the West Midlands who are now happy putting a cross in the box marked Conservative. That's probably worth a couple of seats by itself.0 -
Have been struggling with how to handle the impact of the UKIP churn on the seats projections and hence what is the real swings and movements, and had the following idea. If 2015 majorities in England are wholly skewed by the UKIP effect, then why not compare the polling to the 2010 results.
For England alone this gives the following
ICM poll compared with 2010 election
CON 53% 39.6% (+13.4%)
LAB 27% 28.1% (-1.1%)
LD 10% 24.2% (-14.2%)
UKIP 6% 3.5% (+2.5%)
Green 3% 1% (+2%)
Which swings applied to the 2010 data would result in the LibDems being in low single digits, and Labour being around 120 seats in England, and the Tories having just over 400 English seats.
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Thanks, indeed it's a very difficult guessing game...Sandpit said:Morning. Good thread @Chris_from_Paris
Not a fan of markets where the outcome is one person's choice, (and I screwed up the vote share markets and lost money) so sitting this one out.
There are many rumors but nobody knows anything yet.
Some information will necessarily come out at some point during the weekend as the chosen person is told and begins to assemble a team. The prices could be very volatile on Sunday in particular.
Early monday morning there will probably be also a small window between the unofficial announcement and the official confirmation.0 -
1) It wasn't a shock to anyone who paid it close attention. This was always going to be a tough fight for Labour. In many ways, the surprise was that it was closer than Bristol.CarlottaVance said:Labour Party factionalism, trade union in-fighting, a lack of enthusiasm from councillors and MPs and a poor support from the London party are all being blamed for the shock defeat by less than one per cent of the vote.
2) Simon is not personally popular with people who have met him and his Labour rival, a significant local councillor, is. If there is a motivational problem maybe he should look closer to home for that. He won't, because he's always blamed everyone but himself for his failures, but he should.
3) Most people pay no attention to union politics, so McCluskey's decision to expel his rival from the union during a ballot on the leadership will have caused scarcely a ripple. That's especially true in the WM where the public sector is comparatively small. And would the £10,000 he is said to have refused to stay out of it have made a difference? It seems unlikely given Street's resources.
4) I don't think bussing in a load of Londoners to the West Midlands to tell them how wonderful things are in Islington would exactly have helped matters given how unpopular Londoners are with the rest of the country right now. As for Corbyn's foreign policy, that was already priced in.0 -
@Chris_from_Paris is going to take some beating for tipster of the year, so many thanks for this thread.0
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If he can't win on those areas, then his failure is more total than even I thought.Black_Rook said:0 -
Thanks Alastair. Of course, if Macron chooses Royal, I might as well stop commenting on this site!AlastairMeeks said:@Chris_from_Paris is going to take some beating for tipster of the year, so many thanks for this thread.
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Seconded!AlastairMeeks said:@Chris_from_Paris is going to take some beating for tipster of the year, so many thanks for this thread.
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Survation commentary:ydoethur said:
If he can't win on those areas, then his failure is more total than even I thought.Black_Rook said:
A Conservative candidate for Prime Minister leading on questions regarding public trust over Brexit and Economy would not necessarily be seen as particularly surprising, a Labour Leader not leading on protecting the NHS and to “promote a fairer society” should be of concern given Labour’s policy platform and campigning on these issues.
May lead vs Corbyn:
Brexit: +42
Economy: +41
NHS: +3
Fairer Society: +9
http://survation.com/con-lead-lab-17-points-amid-ukip-decline-new-polling-series-good-morning-britain/
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Seconded for TOTY!AlastairMeeks said:@Chris_from_Paris is going to take some beating for tipster of the year, so many thanks for this thread.
An interesting range of candidates, but hard to see much value.0 -
'Of concern' is a rather weak way of putting it!CarlottaVance said:Survation commentary:
A Conservative candidate for Prime Minister leading on questions regarding public trust over Brexit and Economy would not necessarily be seen as particularly surprising, a Labour Leader not leading on protecting the NHS and to “promote a fairer society” should be of concern given Labour’s policy platform and campigning on these issues.
'Should be inducing panic and terror' would be a better locution.
The fairer society question - bearing in mind this is the whole reason Labour committed mass suicide by electing Corbyn in the first place - isn't even close. That's a disaster.
The NHS one is MoE but that's still pretty poor given that the record of the government on healthcare has been to put it mildly rather mixed.
We're about to find out where Labour's true floor is, and it will not be pretty.0 -
Quick note - the Survation Poll is a UK poll as it has NI in there...
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Final-GMB-GE2017-Poll-I-050517TOCH-1c0d0h5.pdf0 -
These policy-specific questions are more typically asked in relation to the parties, where Labour normally retains a (narrow) lead in two areas: the NHS and housing. The fact that Corbyn slips behind May on health just goes to show the power of his reverse Midas touch. Also, this:ydoethur said:
If he can't win on those areas, then his failure is more total than even I thought.Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/8617764911426764800 -
I'm prepared to accept nominations for Assistant TOTY to help my Deputy TOTY - Peter the Punter.foxinsoxuk said:
Seconded for TOTY!AlastairMeeks said:@Chris_from_Paris is going to take some beating for tipster of the year, so many thanks for this thread.
An interesting range of candidates, but hard to see much value.
Signed :
JackW
Supreme Leader for Life TOTY.0 -
Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,0750 -
The big question must be how many of the Independents are closet Tories. If a lot.....CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,0750 -
Amazing how an STV system still doesn't work very well for the Tories in Scotland. They got more votes than the SNP in Edinburgh and Moray and got fewer councillors.
The Ayrshire result stands out for a possible Westminster seat gain.0 -
That would be a pretty major surprise given the history of the seat. If you take into account the predecessor seats of East Angus and South Angus, it's had SNP MPs continuously since 1987 (admittedly a very close call in 2005) and they have had a strong showing in the seat since they first won it in 1974.felix said:
The big question must be how many of the Independents are closet Tories. If a lot.....CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,075
But I'm wondering how many Independents might be closet SNP, or think their demand for a second referendum is just too conservative and they should go for UDI.0 -
Who thinks Labour would cash take that in now if they could? Jezza gets support half way between Brown and Miliband with 180 seats not totally destroying them. He would be going nowhere if he gets 30%.RobD said:Baxter'd.. just a bit of fun of course:
CON 387, Lab 180, LD 5. Majority 1240 -
Another problem is that the Council is not contiguous with the Westminster seat. My ward , where the Tories did well, is actually in Dundee West for Westminster and Monifieth, another strong area, is in Dundee East. So it is a harder nut to crack than it looks.felix said:
The big question must be how many of the Independents are closet Tories. If a lot.....CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,0750 -
Especially if Malcolm helps GOTV!DavidL said:The Ayrshire result stands out for a possible Westminster seat gain.
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I'll write Kevin Meagher down as 'not a fan of Corbyn:'
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/05/08/the-state-of-labour-post-anger-pre-recrimination/0 -
Not directly linked to the choice of PM, but significant:
The former PM Manuel Valls just announced he will not run as a socialist for the parliamentary election but as a candidate for "La Republique en marche" (new name of En marche since yesterday).
This is significant as Valls was PM for most of the last 3 years, was a minister before that and has been the most well-known representative of the right-wing of the socialist party during the last few years.
His departure, that will no doubt be followed by many others, is a very bad sign for the Socialist Party's survival as a dominant force.
Between 1981 and 2017 the socialists have clearly dominated the left and held power for 20 years in total. As recently as 2014 the socialists controlled the presidency, the senate, the national assembly, almost all regions, the vast majority of big cities and a majority of departements. Sic transit gloria mundi...
That former success was based on the union in a single party of traditional socialists and pure social-democrats (Mitterand/Rocard, Jospin/Fabius, Montebourg/Valls...).
The socialists now seem to have chosen the Corbyn path... After all Hamon said during the campaign that he saw Corbyn as "a model of success".
Now the trouble for Macron is that he does not want his party to become only the new centre-left party. To get a majority he needs centre-right voters. In my opinion, this reinforces the need for Macron to name a PM from the right.
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Oh dear.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-sound-of-leamington-spa
Speaking to BuzzFeed News in Tory-held Leamington Spa, an upbeat Corbyn said he would continue as Labour leader no matter what happens on 8 June.0 -
We don't all get excited about them.surbiton said:
I don't dispute that. That is the problem with subsets which we all get excited about.CarlottaVance said:
Good morning Surbiton - its not a question of 'good' or 'bad' - its a matter of 'we don't know'! What ever the respective polling shares in London, I very much doubt there's been the 15point swing in a couple of days in London that YouGov has shown!surbiton said:
Morning, Carlotta. London too good for Labour ! Equally, North is too bad !CarlottaVance said:
The YouGov London subsample has been very variable - showing huge swings between Labour & Con - I wonder if they're not the only one struggling in London?brokenwheel said:Labour over 50% in London (on a small subsample), so reality might knock a couple of points off the Labour VI.
Overall, 47 - 30 is about right for now. Telephone poll.0 -
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Only supreme leader for life? I thought you would follow the Kim Il Sung model and be named Supreme Leader for Eternity.JackW said:
I'm prepared to accept nominations for Assistant TOTY to help my Deputy TOTY - Peter the Punter.foxinsoxuk said:
Seconded for TOTY!AlastairMeeks said:@Chris_from_Paris is going to take some beating for tipster of the year, so many thanks for this thread.
An interesting range of candidates, but hard to see much value.
Signed :
JackW
Supreme Leader for Life TOTY.
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It showed that in Aberdeen South, gained by the SNP in 2015, the Tories won 9,237 first preference votes, ahead of the SNP’s 7,515. The picture was similar in a number of other constituencies, including Central Ayrshire and Edinburgh South West, which had appeared outside Conservative reach. In Gordon, which Alex Salmond won in 2015, the Tories received 15,798 first preference votes to the SNP’s 13,147.
If translated into general election votes that would be enough for the Tories to eject the former first minister even though he has an apparently solid lead over the Conservatives.
The list of new Tory targets includes a number of seats where the Tories are in third place but where they now believe they can win. These include Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, where they have 15,000 votes to make up if they are to beat Corri Wilson, who is defending the seat for the SNP, and in Stirling, where the party is 11,500 votes behind the SNP’s Steven Paterson.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/confident-tories-will-target-snp-big-names-3kjs9cz230 -
The only thing that might persuade me to vote for Corbyn is the thought of how much it would annoy Mandelson and Blair if he won.CarlottaVance said:
However, fun though that would be the national interest must come first.
More seriously, that's significant. Isn't Mandelson the first big Labour figure to suggest a split might be beneficial? Hard to believe that isn't linked to Corbyn's expressed desire to stay on.0 -
Angus has been SNP since the seat existed in 1997. There's got to be a reasonable chance that the Tories can win if hey get the independents from the local election on side.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,0750 -
It also reinforces any perception that he is 'Hollande 2'........Chris_from_Paris said:
Now the trouble for Macron is that he does not want his party to become only the new centre-left party
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The extent to which he does that will show if he is really Hollande's creature as some have suggested, and that En Marche is really just the more moderate socialists looking for a detoxified new image. If he selects a PM from the right he will shake off a lot of that problem and clearly mark himself out to be his own man.Chris_from_Paris said:Now the trouble for Macron is that he does not want his party to become only the new centre-left party. To get a majority he needs centre-right voters. In my opinion, this reinforces the need for Macron to name a PM from the right.
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Centrists in this country need to show their courage. There is nothing to lose any more. Labour is drowning — it’s time for the moderates to take the plunge and break away.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/it-s-time-for-labour-moderates-to-jump-ship-jtnvp5r8l0 -
That's the home patch of our own sensible Labour supporter @SouthamObserver. At some point the sensibles are either going to have to find enough new members to vote Jeremy out, all join the Lib Dems or set up a new party.AlsoIndigo said:Oh dear.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/the-sound-of-leamington-spa
Speaking to BuzzFeed News in Tory-held Leamington Spa, an upbeat Corbyn said he would continue as Labour leader no matter what happens on 8 June.
Right now, Corbyn seems only interested in vote share, he's campaigning in safe Lab seats and safe Tory seats.0 -
A lot of Labour insiders will be studying what he did very closely.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Let's not get carried away. People do vote differently in local elections, for a variety of reasons, as we have been patiently reminding the tiny handful of Labour optimists on here who say that their local results show the party isn't about to be crushed harder than a masochist's testicles. While this shows the Tories are again competitive in some areas of Scotland, realistically they will pick up 8 or so seats at best, and the SNP will still be by far the largest party.Scott_P said:It showed that in Aberdeen South, gained by the SNP in 2015, the Tories won 9,237 first preference votes, ahead of the SNP’s 7,515. The picture was similar in a number of other constituencies, including Central Ayrshire and Edinburgh South West, which had appeared outside Conservative reach. In Gordon, which Alex Salmond won in 2015, the Tories received 15,798 first preference votes to the SNP’s 13,147.
If translated into general election votes that would be enough for the Tories to eject the former first minister even though he has an apparently solid lead over the Conservatives.
The list of new Tory targets includes a number of seats where the Tories are in third place but where they now believe they can win. These include Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, where they have 15,000 votes to make up if they are to beat Corri Wilson, who is defending the seat for the SNP, and in Stirling, where the party is 11,500 votes behind the SNP’s Steven Paterson.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/confident-tories-will-target-snp-big-names-3kjs9cz23
Longer term the direction of travel may be significant but that depends on many things, not least what happens to Sturgeon if the results are a bit disappointing or the vote share is lower than anticipated. Also of course how big a mess Brexit turns out to be.0 -
Maybe proves nothing but the Independent group and the Tory group are apparently in advanced talks about forming an administration excluding the SNP....Sandpit said:
Angus has been SNP since the seat existed in 1997. There's got to be a reasonable chance that the Tories can win if hey get the independents from the local election on side.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,0750 -
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Oh if @Alanbrooke wins his bet with Malcolm and Salmond loses his seat...#BestelectionresulteverScott_P said:It showed that in Aberdeen South, gained by the SNP in 2015, the Tories won 9,237 first preference votes, ahead of the SNP’s 7,515. The picture was similar in a number of other constituencies, including Central Ayrshire and Edinburgh South West, which had appeared outside Conservative reach. In Gordon, which Alex Salmond won in 2015, the Tories received 15,798 first preference votes to the SNP’s 13,147.
If translated into general election votes that would be enough for the Tories to eject the former first minister even though he has an apparently solid lead over the Conservatives.
The list of new Tory targets includes a number of seats where the Tories are in third place but where they now believe they can win. These include Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, where they have 15,000 votes to make up if they are to beat Corri Wilson, who is defending the seat for the SNP, and in Stirling, where the party is 11,500 votes behind the SNP’s Steven Paterson.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/confident-tories-will-target-snp-big-names-3kjs9cz230 -
I wonder if this will kill off the European move towards primaries. I used to be in favour, but the results aren't looking great. In France the left and right held primaries and managed to come third and fifth in a two-horse race. The Americans picked a shitty candidate and an atrocious candidate and the atrocious one won, and when Labour opened up their process they ended up with Corbyn.CarlottaVance said:
Are there any recent cases where a party has held a primary and it's worked out well for them?0 -
It's quite amazing that, as the general election campaign gets underway, the main opposition party are still arguing with each other, rather than with their political opponents. How much more of this before the landslide becomes an overwhelming 200 seat majority for the Tories?ydoethur said:I'll write Kevin Meagher down as 'not a fan of Corbyn:'
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/05/08/the-state-of-labour-post-anger-pre-recrimination/0 -
Unfortunately most if not all Labour Mps are unwilling to contemplate this. Even Dancing waited until he was sacked. I think the party is doomed.Scott_P said:Centrists in this country need to show their courage. There is nothing to lose any more. Labour is drowning — it’s time for the moderates to take the plunge and break away.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/it-s-time-for-labour-moderates-to-jump-ship-jtnvp5r8l0 -
Don't spoil the fun. But an important longer term trend is that the old Tory areas of Scotland are moving away from the SNP quite sharply as the SNP define themselves as more left than centre. The plus side from their point of view was considerable in that they took Glasgow from Labour and did very well in the western Central belt where most Scots live but Nicola is finding it harder to keep the tartan Tories on board than Salmond did.ydoethur said:
Let's not get carried away. People do vote differently in local elections, for a variety of reasons, as we have been patiently reminding the tiny handful of Labour optimists on here who say that their local results show the party isn't about to be crushed harder than a masochist's testicles. While this shows the Tories are again competitive in some areas of Scotland, realistically they will pick up 8 or so seats at best, and the SNP will still be by far the largest party.Scott_P said:It showed that in Aberdeen South, gained by the SNP in 2015, the Tories won 9,237 first preference votes, ahead of the SNP’s 7,515. The picture was similar in a number of other constituencies, including Central Ayrshire and Edinburgh South West, which had appeared outside Conservative reach. In Gordon, which Alex Salmond won in 2015, the Tories received 15,798 first preference votes to the SNP’s 13,147.
If translated into general election votes that would be enough for the Tories to eject the former first minister even though he has an apparently solid lead over the Conservatives.
The list of new Tory targets includes a number of seats where the Tories are in third place but where they now believe they can win. These include Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, where they have 15,000 votes to make up if they are to beat Corri Wilson, who is defending the seat for the SNP, and in Stirling, where the party is 11,500 votes behind the SNP’s Steven Paterson.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/confident-tories-will-target-snp-big-names-3kjs9cz23
Longer term the direction of travel may be significant but that depends on many things, not least what happens to Sturgeon if the results are a bit disappointing or the vote share is lower than anticipated. Also of course how big a mess Brexit turns out to be.0 -
Oh dear, the Messiah's honeymoon didn't last long.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4485212/Ready-use-tough-negotiating-skills-Monsieur-Macron.html0 -
It's 'Angus South' ancestor was Tory for 28 of its 33 years.....Sandpit said:
Angus has been SNP since the seat existed in 1997. There's got to be a reasonable chance that the Tories can win if hey get the independents from the local election on side.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,0750 -
That's interesting, suggests that we might see anti-SNP voting in the GE. Would be fantastic if Nicola and Alex get put firmly back in their box by the Scottish people.DavidL said:
Maybe proves nothing but the Independent group and the Tory group are apparently in advanced talks about forming an administration excluding the SNP....Sandpit said:
Angus has been SNP since the seat existed in 1997. There's got to be a reasonable chance that the Tories can win if hey get the independents from the local election on side.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,0750 -
On London. It's really fascinating, and we just don't know how it will go because of the absence of any reliable polling, and the fact that no-one in the capital got to vote last Thursday. London, of course, bucked the trend in 2015, and Labour did comparatively well. I suspect it will again buck the trend.
Fwiw. I think the key motivators for Londoners are:
1) Housing costs and availability
2) Remainer fury
3) Pollution
Ostensibly, none of those issues plays well for the Tories, but I am far from sure. It really depends on how the parties pitch their message to Londoners. One thing to note is that Labour have much further to fall in London than the rest of the country, so I wouldn't be totally surprised if the swing against Labour actually ends up being higher than elsewhere.0 -
Something similar happened in 1979, where the Cabinet had to spend a long time after the election was called drafting a manifesto. Apparently it took them three days because they couldn't agree whether one policy should be called 'fair deal free trade bargaining' or 'fair deal collective wage bargaining' (which to me implies an entirely different policy anyway).Sandpit said:
It's quite amazing that, as the general election campaign gets underway, the main opposition party are still arguing with each other, rather than with their political opponents. How much more of this before the landslide becomes an overwhelming 200 seat majority for the Tories?ydoethur said:I'll write Kevin Meagher down as 'not a fan of Corbyn:'
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/05/08/the-state-of-labour-post-anger-pre-recrimination/
But then they were in government. If Corbyn can keep the Tories to a majority of 43, or even a swing of 5%, he'll have far exceeded all expectations.0 -
How many Labour MP's will be left to form a new party if the bickering continues.....
There might only be 120mps left, a lot of which will be loony left..0 -
When you vote in Scottish/local elections a major factor for those voting will not be anti-SNP per se, but anti SNP in government. When voting in the General Election a vote against the SNP is not a vote against the Government.ydoethur said:
Let's not get carried away. People do vote differently in local elections, for a variety of reasons, as we have been patiently reminding the tiny handful of Labour optimists on here who say that their local results show the party isn't about to be crushed harder than a masochist's testicles. While this shows the Tories are again competitive in some areas of Scotland, realistically they will pick up 8 or so seats at best, and the SNP will still be by far the largest party.Scott_P said:It showed that in Aberdeen South, gained by the SNP in 2015, the Tories won 9,237 first preference votes, ahead of the SNP’s 7,515. The picture was similar in a number of other constituencies, including Central Ayrshire and Edinburgh South West, which had appeared outside Conservative reach. In Gordon, which Alex Salmond won in 2015, the Tories received 15,798 first preference votes to the SNP’s 13,147.
If translated into general election votes that would be enough for the Tories to eject the former first minister even though he has an apparently solid lead over the Conservatives.
The list of new Tory targets includes a number of seats where the Tories are in third place but where they now believe they can win. These include Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, where they have 15,000 votes to make up if they are to beat Corri Wilson, who is defending the seat for the SNP, and in Stirling, where the party is 11,500 votes behind the SNP’s Steven Paterson.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/confident-tories-will-target-snp-big-names-3kjs9cz23
Longer term the direction of travel may be significant but that depends on many things, not least what happens to Sturgeon if the results are a bit disappointing or the vote share is lower than anticipated. Also of course how big a mess Brexit turns out to be.0 -
Yes, their only option is to split into two, a Momentum type mob led by Corbyn and a treacly, centrist bunch (similar to the lib dems) telling everybody how wonderful and caring they are. I'd guess each would get around 15% in the polls which would be very funny.felix said:
Unfortunately most if not all Labour Mps are unwilling to contemplate this. Even Dancing waited until he was sacked. I think the party is doomed.Scott_P said:Centrists in this country need to show their courage. There is nothing to lose any more. Labour is drowning — it’s time for the moderates to take the plunge and break away.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/it-s-time-for-labour-moderates-to-jump-ship-jtnvp5r8l0 -
Yes - under Sturgeon if the SNP coalition is to fracture it will be the leftish parts that adhere, the righting parts that drift away. How much of the SNP's North East appeal was based on oil? With BREXIT it certainly won't be based on fisheries or agriculture!DavidL said:
Don't spoil the fun. But an important longer term trend is that the old Tory areas of Scotland are moving away from the SNP quite sharply as the SNP define themselves as more left than centre. The plus side from their point of view was considerable in that they took Glasgow from Labour and did very well in the western Central belt where most Scots live but Nicola is finding it harder to keep the tartan Tories on board than Salmond did.ydoethur said:
Let's not get carried away. People do vote differently in local elections, for a variety of reasons, as we have been patiently reminding the tiny handful of Labour optimists on here who say that their local results show the party isn't about to be crushed harder than a masochist's testicles. While this shows the Tories are again competitive in some areas of Scotland, realistically they will pick up 8 or so seats at best, and the SNP will still be by far the largest party.Scott_P said:It showed that in Aberdeen South, gained by the SNP in 2015, the Tories won 9,237 first preference votes, ahead of the SNP’s 7,515. The picture was similar in a number of other constituencies, including Central Ayrshire and Edinburgh South West, which had appeared outside Conservative reach. In Gordon, which Alex Salmond won in 2015, the Tories received 15,798 first preference votes to the SNP’s 13,147.
If translated into general election votes that would be enough for the Tories to eject the former first minister even though he has an apparently solid lead over the Conservatives.
The list of new Tory targets includes a number of seats where the Tories are in third place but where they now believe they can win. These include Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, where they have 15,000 votes to make up if they are to beat Corri Wilson, who is defending the seat for the SNP, and in Stirling, where the party is 11,500 votes behind the SNP’s Steven Paterson.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/confident-tories-will-target-snp-big-names-3kjs9cz23
Longer term the direction of travel may be significant but that depends on many things, not least what happens to Sturgeon if the results are a bit disappointing or the vote share is lower than anticipated. Also of course how big a mess Brexit turns out to be.0 -
Alex Salmond losing his seat would be Mark Reckless, Vince Cable and Ed Balls added together, with knobs on. A Vintage Pol Roger moment!DavidL said:
Oh if @Alanbrooke wins his bet with Malcolm and Salmond loses his seat...#BestelectionresulteverScott_P said:It showed that in Aberdeen South, gained by the SNP in 2015, the Tories won 9,237 first preference votes, ahead of the SNP’s 7,515. The picture was similar in a number of other constituencies, including Central Ayrshire and Edinburgh South West, which had appeared outside Conservative reach. In Gordon, which Alex Salmond won in 2015, the Tories received 15,798 first preference votes to the SNP’s 13,147.
If translated into general election votes that would be enough for the Tories to eject the former first minister even though he has an apparently solid lead over the Conservatives.
The list of new Tory targets includes a number of seats where the Tories are in third place but where they now believe they can win. These include Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, where they have 15,000 votes to make up if they are to beat Corri Wilson, who is defending the seat for the SNP, and in Stirling, where the party is 11,500 votes behind the SNP’s Steven Paterson.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/confident-tories-will-target-snp-big-names-3kjs9cz230 -
I'm a teacher, it's my job!DavidL said:
Don't spoil the fun.
That's true, but it is a wise strategy from Sturgeon. If she can associate nationalism with the left, and especially independence, she has a far bigger pool of voters to mine for a second referendum at some point. Moreover, with Labour not only dead but aggressively centralising all its functions while the Unionists appear to be given considerable autonomy, there is a gap to exploit anyway.DavidL said:Nicola is finding it harder to keep the tartan Tories on board than Salmond did.
0 -
Nationalism and nationality in general is easier to exploit from the right. Salmond was much smarter than Nicola.ydoethur said:
I'm a teacher, it's my job!DavidL said:
Don't spoil the fun.
That's true, but it is a wise strategy from Sturgeon. If she can associate nationalism with the left, and especially independence, she has a far bigger pool of voters to mine for a second referendum at some point. Moreover, with Labour not only dead but aggressively centralising all its functions while the Unionists appear to be given considerable autonomy, there is a gap to exploit anyway.DavidL said:Nicola is finding it harder to keep the tartan Tories on board than Salmond did.
0 -
Nicola clearly thought that announcing Indyref2 would motivate her troops at conference. I think she seriously underestimated how much it would motivate her opposition, the Tories in particular. Many people are sick to death of the Independence debate and are openly hostile to it opening up again. Anti-SNP tactical voting is now a thing in the same way as anti-Tory voting used to be.Sandpit said:
That's interesting, suggests that we might see anti-SNP voting in the GE. Would be fantastic if Nicola and Alex get put firmly back in their box by the Scottish people.DavidL said:
Maybe proves nothing but the Independent group and the Tory group are apparently in advanced talks about forming an administration excluding the SNP....Sandpit said:
Angus has been SNP since the seat existed in 1997. There's got to be a reasonable chance that the Tories can win if hey get the independents from the local election on side.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,0750 -
I think it is also because the SNP are now seen as the party of government in Scotland and are getting the blame for all of the problems in the Scottish economy and how badly they are running the country.DavidL said:
Nicola clearly thought that announcing Indyref2 would motivate her troops at conference. I think she seriously underestimated how much it would motivate her opposition, the Tories in particular. Many people are sick to death of the Independence debate and are openly hostile to it opening up again. Anti-SNP tactical voting is now a thing in the same way as anti-Tory voting used to be.Sandpit said:
That's interesting, suggests that we might see anti-SNP voting in the GE. Would be fantastic if Nicola and Alex get put firmly back in their box by the Scottish people.DavidL said:
Maybe proves nothing but the Independent group and the Tory group are apparently in advanced talks about forming an administration excluding the SNP....Sandpit said:
Angus has been SNP since the seat existed in 1997. There's got to be a reasonable chance that the Tories can win if hey get the independents from the local election on side.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,0750 -
Nicola seems to be a 5ft politician who has dug herself a 6ft hole.DavidL said:
Nicola clearly thought that announcing Indyref2 would motivate her troops at conference. I think she seriously underestimated how much it would motivate her opposition, the Tories in particular. Many people are sick to death of the Independence debate and are openly hostile to it opening up again. Anti-SNP tactical voting is now a thing in the same way as anti-Tory voting used to be.Sandpit said:
That's interesting, suggests that we might see anti-SNP voting in the GE. Would be fantastic if Nicola and Alex get put firmly back in their box by the Scottish people.DavidL said:
Maybe proves nothing but the Independent group and the Tory group are apparently in advanced talks about forming an administration excluding the SNP....Sandpit said:
Angus has been SNP since the seat existed in 1997. There's got to be a reasonable chance that the Tories can win if hey get the independents from the local election on side.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,0750 -
That's what Stalin thought as well - right up until the moment he changed his mind.MaxPB said:
Nationalism and nationality in general is easier to exploit from the right. Salmond was much smarter than Nicola.ydoethur said:
I'm a teacher, it's my job!DavidL said:
Don't spoil the fun.
That's true, but it is a wise strategy from Sturgeon. If she can associate nationalism with the left, and especially independence, she has a far bigger pool of voters to mine for a second referendum at some point. Moreover, with Labour not only dead but aggressively centralising all its functions while the Unionists appear to be given considerable autonomy, there is a gap to exploit anyway.DavidL said:Nicola is finding it harder to keep the tartan Tories on board than Salmond did.
Or we could mention Castro. Or Mao. Or Chavez.
An astute politician exploits the openings they have. Right now, in Scotland independence can be associated with leftism becuase we look set to have right wing UK Government for the foreseeable future. If that changed and the left became toxic, the SNP will tack again, because they care about independence, not about how they get there.
Whether Sturgeon has the ability to fully exploit this opportunity is a different question. She may not. But if she doesn't even try she can't succeed.
Have a good morning.0 -
The Council elections showed that Labour are not dead despite Nicola's desire to bury them. I agree it is essential for the continuance of the Union that they survive and even recover a bit. I will find myself in the bizarre position of cheering any Labour gains from the SNP on 8th June.ydoethur said:
I'm a teacher, it's my job!DavidL said:
Don't spoil the fun.
That's true, but it is a wise strategy from Sturgeon. If she can associate nationalism with the left, and especially independence, she has a far bigger pool of voters to mine for a second referendum at some point. Moreover, with Labour not only dead but aggressively centralising all its functions while the Unionists appear to be given considerable autonomy, there is a gap to exploit anyway.DavidL said:Nicola is finding it harder to keep the tartan Tories on board than Salmond did.
0 -
So when do we get these manifestos?0
-
It's very unlikely, the boundary in the past 10 years work against them, I'm pretty certain that the old Ayr seat would have gone Tory, but with Prestwick and Troon being moved into a Central Ayrshire seat, and Cumnock and Doon valley being added into the new Ayr seat it likes close to impossible.DavidL said:Amazing how an STV system still doesn't work very well for the Tories in Scotland. They got more votes than the SNP in Edinburgh and Moray and got fewer councillors.
The Ayrshire result stands out for a possible Westminster seat gain.
It's basically been gerrymandered against a tory win, the boundaries cut across communities and makes no sense at all.0 -
Macron's spokesman reacted to the news about Valls by saying Valls would not be an official En marche candidate if he does not apply for it "through the process used for all, former PM included".CarlottaVance said:
It also reinforces any perception that he is 'Hollande 2'........Chris_from_Paris said:
Now the trouble for Macron is that he does not want his party to become only the new centre-left party
He added that Valls still had a day to do so, as official candidates will be announced on Thursday but this does not sound like a very warm welcome...0 -
It doesn't matter they're not worth the paper they're written onGallowgate said:So when do we get these manifestos?
0 -
Con - Brexit means a strong and stable bloody difficult womanGallowgate said:So when do we get these manifestos?
Lab - Brexit, what's that? Let's talk about the NHS and Tory cuts.
Lib - Tim will personally come and collect your bins every week, wait every two weeks because of Tory cuts.
I think that about sums up the main ones0 -
February 21, 1848 in Labour's case.Gallowgate said:So when do we get these manifestos?
0 -
You missed theMaxPB said:
Con - Brexit means a strong and stable bloody difficult womanGallowgate said:So when do we get these manifestos?
Lab - Brexit, what's that? Let's talk about the NHS and Tory cuts.
Lib - Tim will personally come and collect your bins every week, wait every two weeks because of Tory cuts.
I think that about sums up the main onesBrian HanrahanUKIP manifesto: "I counted them all out and I counted them all back."0 -
Interesting to be a fly on the all for internal SNP discussions if Salmond really did push Sturgeon into that ill-fated call for IndyRef2.....Scott_P said:It showed that in Aberdeen South, gained by the SNP in 2015, the Tories won 9,237 first preference votes, ahead of the SNP’s 7,515. The picture was similar in a number of other constituencies, including Central Ayrshire and Edinburgh South West, which had appeared outside Conservative reach. In Gordon, which Alex Salmond won in 2015, the Tories received 15,798 first preference votes to the SNP’s 13,147.
If translated into general election votes that would be enough for the Tories to eject the former first minister even though he has an apparently solid lead over the Conservatives.
The list of new Tory targets includes a number of seats where the Tories are in third place but where they now believe they can win. These include Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, where they have 15,000 votes to make up if they are to beat Corri Wilson, who is defending the seat for the SNP, and in Stirling, where the party is 11,500 votes behind the SNP’s Steven Paterson.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/confident-tories-will-target-snp-big-names-3kjs9cz230 -
It's great to see that the Scottish people have finally woken up to the fact that their governing party are obsessed with constitutional change at the expense of actually running the place.MaxPB said:
I think it is also because the SNP are now seen as the party of government in Scotland and are getting the blame for all of the problems in the Scottish economy and how badly they are running the country.DavidL said:
Nicola clearly thought that announcing Indyref2 would motivate her troops at conference. I think she seriously underestimated how much it would motivate her opposition, the Tories in particular. Many people are sick to death of the Independence debate and are openly hostile to it opening up again. Anti-SNP tactical voting is now a thing in the same way as anti-Tory voting used to be.Sandpit said:
That's interesting, suggests that we might see anti-SNP voting in the GE. Would be fantastic if Nicola and Alex get put firmly back in their box by the Scottish people.DavidL said:
Maybe proves nothing but the Independent group and the Tory group are apparently in advanced talks about forming an administration excluding the SNP....Sandpit said:
Angus has been SNP since the seat existed in 1997. There's got to be a reasonable chance that the Tories can win if hey get the independents from the local election on side.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,075
Anecdotage, but friends and family in Scotland have said they'll vote Conservative for the first time in three decades. They smiled at Rutherglen having a Tory councillor, my dearly departed Gran (who lived there) probably turned in her grave.0 -
LOL. Very good.Ishmael_Z said:
February 21, 1848 in Labour's case.Gallowgate said:So when do we get these manifestos?
0 -
When the Prime Minister announced the election, I condemned her for going to the country early to take advantage of her opinion-poll lead. It was a cynical attempt to exploit Labour’s troubles and to increase her majority before the opposition could replace its unpopular leader, I said. She was worried the economy was going to take a turn for the worse, I commented, thinking I was making a clever point.
But I had no idea that Michael Foot was going to lose quite so badly.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-margaret-thatcher-conservatives-general-election-a7718666.html0 -
Yeah, it does feel like Westminster has given the SNP just enough rope to hang themselves err to devolution and local powers. The SNP find themselves unable to just blame Westminster any longer.Sandpit said:
It's great to see that the Scottish people have finally woken up to the fact that their governing party are obsessed with constitutional change at the expense of actually running the place.MaxPB said:
I think it is also because the SNP are now seen as the party of government in Scotland and are getting the blame for all of the problems in the Scottish economy and how badly they are running the country.DavidL said:
Nicola clearly thought that announcing Indyref2 would motivate her troops at conference. I think she seriously underestimated how much it would motivate her opposition, the Tories in particular. Many people are sick to death of the Independence debate and are openly hostile to it opening up again. Anti-SNP tactical voting is now a thing in the same way as anti-Tory voting used to be.Sandpit said:
That's interesting, suggests that we might see anti-SNP voting in the GE. Would be fantastic if Nicola and Alex get put firmly back in their box by the Scottish people.DavidL said:
Maybe proves nothing but the Independent group and the Tory group are apparently in advanced talks about forming an administration excluding the SNP....Sandpit said:
Angus has been SNP since the seat existed in 1997. There's got to be a reasonable chance that the Tories can win if hey get the independents from the local election on side.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't realised the Angus vote was so close:
Angus
SNP 12,349
Con 10,771
Lab 2,178
LibD 1,873
UKIP 0
Ind: 10,075
Anecdotage, but friends and family in Scotland have said they'll vote Conservative for the first time in three decades. They smiled at Rutherglen having a Tory councillor, my dearly departed Gran would have turned in her grave.0 -
Erm, no. Macron is president because Fillon fell foul of Russian hackers and French prosecutors in equal measure. Macron was just the last anti-MLP candidate left standing.CarlottaVance said:0 -
ThomasNashe said:
On London. It's really fascinating, and we just don't know how it will go because of the absence of any reliable polling, and the fact that no-one in the capital got to vote last Thursday. London, of course, bucked the trend in 2015, and Labour did comparatively well. I suspect it will again buck the trend.
Fwiw. I think the key motivators for Londoners are:
1) Housing costs and availability
2) Remainer fury
3) Pollution
Ostensibly, none of those issues plays well for the Tories, but I am far from sure. It really depends on how the parties pitch their message to Londoners. One thing to note is that Labour have much further to fall in London than the rest of the country, so I wouldn't be totally surprised if the swing against Labour actually ends up being higher than elsewhere.
So pollution has deteriorated in the capital? Are you sure?0 -
In STV that can often be a consequence of getting proportionately fewer transfers than other parties. Probably the reluctance to support the Tories amongst a significant slice of Scottish voters is still there, underneath the more newly emerging voting patterns.DavidL said:Amazing how an STV system still doesn't work very well for the Tories in Scotland. They got more votes than the SNP in Edinburgh and Moray and got fewer councillors.
The Ayrshire result stands out for a possible Westminster seat gain.0 -
I see your point, but US primaries have quite often given rise to decent candidates. The party machine would've picked Clinton over Obama in 2008, and would've been wrong, for example.edmundintokyo said:
I wonder if this will kill off the European move towards primaries. I used to be in favour, but the results aren't looking great. In France the left and right held primaries and managed to come third and fifth in a two-horse race. The Americans picked a shitty candidate and an atrocious candidate and the atrocious one won, and when Labour opened up their process they ended up with Corbyn.CarlottaVance said:
Are there any recent cases where a party has held a primary and it's worked out well for them?
I am also not sure that primaries made a worse choice than party machines would have in the examples you raise. The Republican machine would have chosen someone other than Trump, but that person might very well have lost... and you need to decide whether your objection is that primaries choose awful people, or that they choose losers. The Democrat machine would have gone for Clinton over Sanders anyway so the primaries made no difference (and I suspect they went for the least worst electorally by doing so, whatever the zealots say). The French Socialists were doomed to defeat whatever they did. The French Republicans did obviously choose the wrong man - but only really because of a scandal that broke after the primaries; with hindsight it was wrong, but at the time it was him versus a rather unpopular ex-President and a yesterday's man, so wasn't some kind of out there, crazy choice.0 -
I think what has deteriorated is peoples tolerance of it. I fear the Tories are somewhat behind the curve on this. Being able to pollute other peoples air because you can afford to pay the Congestion Charge is really not the answer and the proposals that they were forced to publish looked pathetic.notme said:ThomasNashe said:On London. It's really fascinating, and we just don't know how it will go because of the absence of any reliable polling, and the fact that no-one in the capital got to vote last Thursday. London, of course, bucked the trend in 2015, and Labour did comparatively well. I suspect it will again buck the trend.
Fwiw. I think the key motivators for Londoners are:
1) Housing costs and availability
2) Remainer fury
3) Pollution
Ostensibly, none of those issues plays well for the Tories, but I am far from sure. It really depends on how the parties pitch their message to Londoners. One thing to note is that Labour have much further to fall in London than the rest of the country, so I wouldn't be totally surprised if the swing against Labour actually ends up being higher than elsewhere.
So pollution has deteriorated in the capital? Are you sure?0 -
It was terrible recently. I hope the mayor introduces a diesel free zone sooner rather than later. The government also need to fine shit out of the dodgy car manufacturers and make them pay for any scrappage scheme.notme said:ThomasNashe said:On London. It's really fascinating, and we just don't know how it will go because of the absence of any reliable polling, and the fact that no-one in the capital got to vote last Thursday. London, of course, bucked the trend in 2015, and Labour did comparatively well. I suspect it will again buck the trend.
Fwiw. I think the key motivators for Londoners are:
1) Housing costs and availability
2) Remainer fury
3) Pollution
Ostensibly, none of those issues plays well for the Tories, but I am far from sure. It really depends on how the parties pitch their message to Londoners. One thing to note is that Labour have much further to fall in London than the rest of the country, so I wouldn't be totally surprised if the swing against Labour actually ends up being higher than elsewhere.
So pollution has deteriorated in the capital? Are you sure?0
