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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs now down ten seats on the Commons spread markets since the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs now down ten seats on the Commons spread markets since the campaign started
GE2017 seat spreads from @SportingIndex . CON 396-401LAB 152-158LD 16-19UKIP 0.1-1GRN 1-2SNP 44-47 https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 … … … …
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I speak as a seller of the Lib Dems, so hubris, most remember hubris.
https://twitter.com/twitonatrain/status/861648864532725761
Editor's note: the first Holyrood election wasn't in 199AD
Dianne Abbott MOE
How the Lib Dems fare in Labour seats like Yardley/Cambridge/Bermondsey/Burnley will be a mystery until election night. They're too varied.
It was only a year before the 2015 landslide that they barely scraped 29% in the European elections, right in the middle of Indyref euphoria, getting beaten by Labour even in the "Yes" heartland Glasgow.
No democracy for you after the pasting the Scots received at the Battle of Mons Graupius a century before from the Romans.
'Greens will not take part in ‘Toxic’ Moray election'
http://tinyurl.com/kur8gce
For those wondering whether Ms Abbott's gaffe last week was a one off that could happen to anyone, try this from June last year.
Written PQ from Diane Abbott: To ask the Secretary of State for International Development, what steps she has taken to assist people in the Indonesian province of Province of Davao del Norte affected by the drought in that province.
Answer from SoS DfiD Justine Greening: There is no province called Davao del Norte in Indonesia.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/Commons/2016-06-24/41141/
At times we've been the most tolerant and progressive party on the issue, and other times we've acted like homophobic pillocks.
But the ledger is an overall positive I think.
His polls were v. useful in 2015.
Those spreads do now look more realistic, albeit not great value because the risk isn't symmetrical - there is a long tail of possible but increasingly unlikely outcomes above 19 (i.e. a small but real risk of losing a lot), and a much shorter tail below 16 (i.e. only a limited amount you could possibly win). Seems to me, if you're a Lib Dem seller, the value is now simply in backing their main opponent in a number of seats.
I did think Theresa May might have softened Merseyside's resistance a bit, atleast with the middle-class voters on the Wirral, but there wasn't much sign of that in the Merseyside Mayor election last week.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davao_del_Norte
http://www.irinnews.org/news/2016/02/19/el-niño-hits-philippines-farmers-drought-rats
Question deserved a better answer if all that was provided was a trite comment like that - pretty childish,
I'm not saying all of those WILL come off. But there are further perfectly credible targets beyond those named, and all I'm saying is that you don't need to start naming outlandish seats in order to get to 16.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/dabbott_01.shtml
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
New golden rule given ICM's demotion......
I'm guessing the peaceful protestors are Melenchonites.
clever of the TV debates to have so many during half term week so will miss much of that fun sadly...
It might, however it might not. Particularly depending on how egregious an offence the average person sees them as, even if they are criminal offences.
Current 9, plus:
From SNP
Edinburgh West
Dumbartonshire East
Fife NE
From Labour
Cambridge
Bristol West
Cardiff Central
From Conservatives
Bath
Kingston
Twickenham
OxWAb
Less a couple of losses, say North Norfolk and Carshalton.
Now, do I think they'll manage that? No I don't.
But two from the SNP seems likely, and they are odds on in four SNP seats (the ones above plus Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross). Cambridge, given the locals saw a strong swing to the LDs, looks likely. Could you see 3-4 LD gains from Labour? Possibly. There are a couple of strong Remainia seats where they stand a chance or which are four way marginals and therefore the hurdle is likely to be low.
I suspect the LDs will only gain Twickenham from the Tories on the night, but it's possible they pick up Kingston too, plus Bath and OxWAb are very Remain-y.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
As many colossal problems as Corbyn gives the party, my sense more than ever now is that Labour being "the party of Remain/Rejoin" would be even more utterly toxic in this election than Corbyn. Yet this still seems to be the big idea of the Labour "moderates", including @SouthamObserver who was yesterday saying one of Corbyn's big errors was to support Article 50 (which is very far from being what Lab defectors/waverers on the doorstep are complaining about, quite the opposite).
In fact, the whole idea that Labour needs to "modernise", when their main electoral problem is getting slaughtered with older voters, seems a bit strange.
Cheap pointscoring won out. Shame.
I suppose when McDonnell admits he is a marxist on Marr and recommends Das Kapital and the next day Corbyn too admits to his admiration for Marx and meanwhile Cable and Olney shoot themselves in the foot, there is not much point in interupting them.
I do think the daily e mail updates from CCHQ are a good and an effective means of communication
With house prices close to record highs, having slipped by a miniscule 0.2% in Q1 2017 and share prices also very close to the FTSE 100's all time high, coupled with unemployment rates lower than they were 42 years ago, many voters will be convinced that while difficulties undoubtedly lie ahead, now is not the time to rock the boat.
You also have to wonder whether Mrs May is an exceptionally lucky prime Minister to have all these factors currently moving so strongly in her favour, along with Jeremy Corbyn being such a hapless Labour leader and UKIP in full self-destruct mode. Should the Tories fail to deliver a handsome overall majority this time, then they will probably never do so again.
Because the LDs will likely gain two from the SNP, one from Labour and one from the Conservatives. Sure, they might lose a couple, but your maximum win is probably six, and the most likely win is probably two or three. On the other hand, if there is a political 'earthquake', you'll end up getting crucified.
It's simple asymmetrical risk-reward. Or, to put it another way, the LD price contains an embedded option.
(I think you are too hard - 2nd in the Premiership isn't that bad. Champions league football and a better style of play than Boring Arsenal.)
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/859883811064209408
So that's a positive then, it's been this millenium.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/861604257321160704
As for the remainder of the election campaign, I don't see the Lib Dems making any further progress beyond where they were when the election was called. Consider: they are now a minor party, largely shut out of the big conversation which is all (Scotland excepted) about May vs Corbyn. The "48%" strategy has failed: IMHO most Remain voters are pragmatists who now just want the whole nasty business out of the way, and any (especially from the 2015 Tory vote) who were truly distraught about the way the referendum went already left for the Lib Dems before the election campaign started.
Moreover, if the Yellows are praying for intervention from the legal authorities then I fear that they're likely to be disappointed: I remain to be convinced that the CPS will dare to act - even if there is anything to act upon - this side of polling day, out of concern for being seen to be intervening in politics. Even if the CPS does act then I assume that this is unlikely to involve accusations being levelled at Mrs May herself - absent which, any action is liable to have very limited impact. If MPs were being accused of unspeakable sex crimes or tax evasion it might dent them, but as it is I simply don't see too many voters getting all wound up over a few hundred quid too much being spent on leaflets and battle buses - especially when charges may be brought before June 8th, but no-one can possibly be brought to trial within that timeframe.
I've already made my forecast for the election and given the Lib Dems 10-15 seats, and I'm happy to stick with that - I still think that their gains are likely to exceed their losses, if not by very much. But a total of less than 10 is certainly not out of the question.
Likewise, if I'd had the same time machine in April 2015 and told you they'd lost Yeovil, you'd surely have bet heavily on other long-shot losses.
I agree with you that there are local factors, and LDs play off that more than others. But I don't buy your "not particularly correlated" line.
I did a calculation the other day that Labour actually led in the polls if all voters were less than 55 years old. Unfortunately, with the 55+ years old, Labour gets massacred.
It leads me to the obvious conclusion. Just bang on about Triple Lock and the NHS. Then talk about the Triple Lock and the NHS and after that...you guessed it.
We should not get into conversations about the EU. Except to nice Middle class people in trendy parts where they could be wasting their votes on the LD and the Greens.
Polling vs PB Leaver-Le Pen-Trumper anecdote
I think most people, regardless of whether they voted Remain or Leave, want Britain to take a tough stance in the negotiations and not concede all manner of things too easily. One Remain voter put it to us along the lines of "if we send in a wimp to negotiate then we end up with the worst of both worlds: Out of the EU but with terms which screw Britain over".
13 minutes gone. Goalless.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1kJyLGUKxE
Be LEAVE! :lol
#the fight starts now
Firstly that the referendum would have been lost with a more competent Labour leader. Secondly, that the leader would have pursued a Remain strategy. Thirdly, that a reasonably strong leader pursuing a Remain strategy would be more damaging than a plainly incapable leader of a hopelessly divided party pursuing a Leave strategy.
I think all three assumptions are highly questionable. The referendum was close enough to be winnable with a strong Labour message and operation (not definitely, but very possibly). The alternative strategy probably would've been a soft-ish Leave with a bit of sabre-rattling on immigration. And, for all the talk of it being a Brexit election, the damning numbers are the leadership ratings as they almost always have been in recent elections.
Where the referendum results are interesting is in differentiating types of constituency, and in particular in differentiating types of labour voter. To deal briefly in archetypes - and recognising that they are archetypes, and the truth far more complex - the Labour remainer: is a Guardian-reading public sector professional - the Labour leaver is a Sun-reading carpet fitter. These two constituencies have different views of the EU, of Jeremy Corbyn, and probably also of the Liberal Democrats - and the referendum results give us a good way of understanding whether each constituency is made up more of the former or the latter.