Offtopic:- ironically, the more canvassing I do (which seems to support the opinion polls' findings), the more I'm coming back to thinking that Corbyn actually is a lesser evil than any other potential Labour leaders after all.
As many colossal problems as Corbyn gives the party, my sense more than ever now is that Labour being "the party of Remain/Rejoin" would be even more utterly toxic in this election than Corbyn. Yet this still seems to be the big idea of the Labour "moderates", including @SouthamObserver who was yesterday saying one of Corbyn's big errors was to support Article 50 (which is very far from being what Lab defectors/waverers on the doorstep are complaining about, quite the opposite).
In fact, the whole idea that Labour needs to "modernise", when their main electoral problem is getting slaughtered with older voters, seems a bit strange.
I think this Remain/Brexit business is slightly exaggerated. And it has been Labour's failure in not being able to talk about other things or not being able to plant in people's mind what they want to say.
I did a calculation the other day that Labour actually led in the polls if all voters were less than 55 years old. Unfortunately, with the 55+ years old, Labour gets massacred.
It leads me to the obvious conclusion. Just bang on about Triple Lock and the NHS. Then talk about the Triple Lock and the NHS and after that...you guessed it.
We should not get into conversations about the EU. Except to nice Middle class people in trendy parts where they could be wasting their votes on the LD and the Greens.
But one of the main reasons for Corbyn's toxicity is his pathetic performance during the referendum campaign. If he'd shown even a tiny bit of leadership the referendum might not have been lost and his own MPs wouldn't have given up on him.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.
It is more that Leavers wish for the EU to fail. Nothing annoys them more than the prospect of a resurgent EU leaving us trailing in its wake. That is why the wanted Le Pen to cause chaos, rather than Macron to fix things.
Interesting that Labour's share of the vote has increased over the past two weeks by 2.4%, rather more than the Tories' 1.38% improvement ..... Hmm.
Indicative of a weak LD campaign. I doubt however they will stay much above 25/6 on polling day. they may aslo be benefitting from the Scottish 'bump'.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.
It is more that Leavers wish for the EU to fail. Nothing annoys them more than the prospect of a resurgent EU leaving us trailing in its wake. That is why the wanted Le Pen to cause chaos, rather than Macron to fix things.
It is not enough to succeed, others have to fail.
I am happy for the EU to be a success, but too many others are not so happy, if nowhere near as many as idiots claim.
'The Independent' has given the CPS a prod today - nothing much to see apart from the line :-
'A spokesman for the CPS told The Independent, "We have nothing to add to our previous position which is that we are working to various deadlines in late May and early June."'
It confirms the view that charges have to be brought, or dropped, for some constituencies at least, before the election.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.
You're describing intent or malice. I'm describing what the polling seems to show - apathy, and no real feeling they need to have a view. You can, of course, persuade the apathetic. Or you could, if you weren't insulting them and calling them nazi sympathisers.
PB Tories are rejoicing here. God, it's sickening. Need something to wipe that smirk off your (ugly) faces.
Hey, Murali! Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx - VWAP! Fry half a city with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phase plasma rifles, RPGs! We got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks...
I'm sort of assuming now that quite a few leading Lib Dems have sold their seat count on the spreads.
What do you make of 11/4 over 50% vote share for The Tories?
I haven't bet on it but I think that's pretty fair. Given the Lib Dems' determination to ruin their campaign at every turn, UKIP's orderly winding-up and severe doubts over the reliability of Labour's voters, the Conservatives might well outperform polls in practice. The vote share has to go somewhere.
One of the worst things about modern leftism is the repulsive desire to label large groups of people and put them in a convenient box.
Futile hypocrisy
Yes. For example, someone might label a large group of people as "modern leftists" and put them into a convenient box marked "people with a repulsive desire to label large groups of people and put them in a convenient box". And that would be wrong.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
As for the remainder of the election campaign, I don't see the Lib Dems making any further progress beyond where they were when the election was called. Consider: they are now a minor party, largely shut out of the big conversation which is all (Scotland excepted) about May vs Corbyn. The "48%" strategy has failed: IMHO most Remain voters are pragmatists who now just want the whole nasty business out of the way, and any (especially from the 2015 Tory vote) who were truly distraught about the way the referendum went already left for the Lib Dems before the election campaign started.
Moreover, if the Yellows are praying for intervention from the legal authorities then I fear that they're likely to be disappointed: I remain to be convinced that the CPS will dare to act - even if there is anything to act upon - this side of polling day, out of concern for being seen to be intervening in politics. Even if the CPS does act then I assume that this is unlikely to involve accusations being levelled at Mrs May herself - absent which, any action is liable to have very limited impact. If MPs were being accused of unspeakable sex crimes or tax evasion it might dent them, but as it is I simply don't see too many voters getting all wound up over a few hundred quid too much being spent on leaflets and battle buses - especially when charges may be brought before June 8th, but no-one can possibly be brought to trial within that timeframe.
I've already made my forecast for the election and given the Lib Dems 10-15 seats, and I'm happy to stick with that - I still think that their gains are likely to exceed their losses, if not by very much. But a total of less than 10 is certainly not out of the question.
The GE will see a a Tory Tsunami.It will be almost impossible to make any gains against that (except possibly in Scotland )The best end result is likely to be under 10 seats with the risk of near wipeout.
I am struggling where LDs 16 seats will come from.
While I've been a vociferous seller (like most on here), you could get to 17 seats like this:
Current 9, plus:
From SNP Edinburgh West Dumbartonshire East Fife NE
From Labour Cambridge Bristol West Cardiff Central
From Conservatives Bath Kingston Twickenham OxWAb
Less a couple of losses, say North Norfolk and Carshalton.
Now, do I think they'll manage that? No I don't.
But two from the SNP seems likely, and they are odds on in four SNP seats (the ones above plus Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross). Cambridge, given the locals saw a strong swing to the LDs, looks likely. Could you see 3-4 LD gains from Labour? Possibly. There are a couple of strong Remainia seats where they stand a chance or which are four way marginals and therefore the hurdle is likely to be low.
I suspect the LDs will only gain Twickenham from the Tories on the night, but it's possible they pick up Kingston too, plus Bath and OxWAb are very Remain-y.
I suspect that LibDem gains from the SNP are more likely than any of those listed from Labour or the Tories. I still think Labour is well placed to hold Cambridge and will be very surprised if Bermondsey is lost. Richmond is more likely to be lost to the Tories than North Norfolk.
I'm a Right wing Leaver, and I think I'd rather spoil my ballot paper than vote for Zac. I doubt I'm the only one with that view.
One of the worst things about modern leftism is the repulsive desire to label large groups of people and put them in a convenient box.
Futile hypocrisy
Yes. For example, someone might label a large group of people as "modern leftists" and put them into a convenient box marked "people with a repulsive desire to label large groups of people and put them in a convenient box". And that would be wrong.
Poor attempt. If I had said 'leftists' you might be on to something, but even then probably not.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.
You're describing intent or malice. I'm describing what the polling seems to show - apathy, and no real feeling they need to have a view. You can, of course, persuade the apathetic. Or you could, if you weren't insulting them and calling them nazi sympathisers.
If I'm insulting any group (I don't think I am), I'm laying into those Leavers who claim to have thought things through in depth but who have no interest in exploring why more than 6 million Leavers apparently think that Marine Le Pen's election would have been best for Britain, instead preferring to attack those who point this out. This elevation of Brexit to First Law status is pernicious and highly immoral. But Leavers seem more affronted about being supposedly smeared than in confronting it.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
Do you still think that the Supreme Court got the law wrong about whether the referendum was advisory?
PB Tories are rejoicing here. God, it's sickening. Need something to wipe that smirk off your (ugly) faces.
Hey, Murali! Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx - VWAP! Fry half a city with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phase plasma rifles, RPGs! We got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks...
RobD: "Knock it off, Sunil!"
Maybe Murali can build a fire, sing a couple of songs, huh? Why doesn't he try that?
PB Tories are rejoicing here. God, it's sickening. Need something to wipe that smirk off your (ugly) faces.
Hey, Murali! Don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx - VWAP! Fry half a city with this puppy! We got tactical smart missiles, phase plasma rifles, RPGs! We got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks...
RobD: "Knock it off, Sunil!"
I was PB Tory for a few days but left after I found out there were no tangible benefits of being in the club. Have membership benefits improved?
I got in on this market on the first day, when it was LD under 26.5. Unfortunately I also bet on the opening Labour market (165.5+) which is a lot more of a nailbiter. When the Tories start to go for the jugular, it'll take a lot of propping up to stop Labour's floor from collapsing.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.
You're describing intent or malice. I'm describing what the polling seems to show - apathy, and no real feeling they need to have a view. You can, of course, persuade the apathetic. Or you could, if you weren't insulting them and calling them nazi sympathisers.
If I'm insulting any group (I don't think I am), I'm laying into those Leavers who claim to have thought things through in depth but who have no interest in exploring why more than 6 million Leavers apparently think that Marine Le Pen's election would have been best for Britain, instead preferring to attack those who point this out. This elevation of Brexit to First Law status is pernicious and highly immoral. But Leavers seem more affronted about being supposedly smeared than in confronting it.
I am struggling to believe it is really you posting this nonsense.
The fact that a clear majority didn't express a preference undercuts your whole point
There's certainly an interesting question around what price do Brexiteers consider paying to achieve their goal. It would certainly appear that a fascist running our nearest neighbour and traditional ally is indeed a price they are happy to pay. What else?
Interesting that Labour's share of the vote has increased over the past two weeks by 2.4%, rather more than the Tories' 1.38% improvement ..... Hmm.
Indicative of a weak LD campaign. I doubt however they will stay much above 25/6 on polling day. they may aslo be benefitting from the Scottish 'bump'.
Note that the LDs actually fell, but not much in the last two weeks - only 0.65%!
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.
You're describing intent or malice. I'm describing what the polling seems to show - apathy, and no real feeling they need to have a view. You can, of course, persuade the apathetic. Or you could, if you weren't insulting them and calling them nazi sympathisers.
If I'm insulting any group (I don't think I am), I'm laying into those Leavers who claim to have thought things through in depth but who have no interest in exploring why more than 6 million Leavers apparently think that Marine Le Pen's election would have been best for Britain, instead preferring to attack those who point this out. This elevation of Brexit to First Law status is pernicious and highly immoral. But Leavers seem more affronted about being supposedly smeared than in confronting it.
I suspect most of the Leavers on here and a fair number who voted remain are just plain embarrassed for you.
There's certainly an interesting question around what price do Brexiteers consider paying to achieve their goal. It would certainly appear that a fascist running our nearest neighbour and traditional ally is indeed a price they are happy to pay. What else?
Didn't you Commies kill more people than the Fascists in more countries?
The GE will see a a Tory Tsunami.It will be almost impossible to make any gains against that (except possibly in Scotland )The best end result is likely to be under 10 seats with the risk of near wipeout.
There are two LD seats are LD/Con contests which voted Leave: Carshalton and Norfolk North. There is another which was only marginally in favour of Remain (52%), which was Southport.
Beyond there, Con gains from the LDs look much harder. Ceredgion is a fight with Plaid. Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam, as well as being big Remain seats, are Lab/LD. Orkney & Shetland will be held with a big LD majority if the Holyrood elections are any guide (67.4% of the vote). Westmoreland & Lonsdale has a big Farron personal vote, and they just managed pretty decent local election results there.
Given Cambridge saw the LD vote share up 10% since 2015 last week (when they lost it marginally), and there are three very good shots in Scotland (Edinburgh West looks a near cert given both Holyrood and Scottish local results, while I would have thought one of Fife NE and Dumbartonshire East will likely come in). This gets you back to 9 seats, with a reasonable chance of the LDs picking up one of the seats in deepest Remania, or a three/four way marginal.
Worth remembering that despite losing seats last week, the LDs increased their total number of votes by close to 40%. Now, that'd only take them to 11.3% nationally. But those votes have to go somewhere.
It's entirely possible the LDs get less than 10 seats and I've bet on it at 8-1. But realistically, it's probably a 25-30% shot, not a 70% one.
I am struggling where LDs 16 seats will come from.
While I've been a vociferous seller (like most on here), you could get to 17 seats like this:
Current 9, plus:
From SNP Edinburgh West Dumbartonshire East Fife NE
From Labour Cambridge Bristol West Cardiff Central
From Conservatives Bath Kingston Twickenham OxWAb
Less a couple of losses, say North Norfolk and Carshalton.
Now, do I think they'll manage that? No I don't.
But two from the SNP seems likely, and they are odds on in four SNP seats (the ones above plus Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross). Cambridge, given the locals saw a strong swing to the LDs, looks likely. Could you see 3-4 LD gains from Labour? Possibly. There are a couple of strong Remainia seats where they stand a chance or which are four way marginals and therefore the hurdle is likely to be low.
I suspect the LDs will only gain Twickenham from the Tories on the night, but it's possible they pick up Kingston too, plus Bath and OxWAb are very Remain-y.
I suspect that LibDem gains from the SNP are more likely than any of those listed from Labour or the Tories. I still think Labour is well placed to hold Cambridge and will be very surprised if Bermondsey is lost. Richmond is more likely to be lost to the Tories than North Norfolk.
I'm a Right wing Leaver, and I think I'd rather spoil my ballot paper than vote for Zac. I doubt I'm the only one with that view.
I still expect the Tories to win it back. The seat would only go LibDem when the Tories are polling poorly with the LibDems having momentum. I don't share your implied views on Brexit will be particularly salient.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
There's certainly an interesting question around what price do Brexiteers consider paying to achieve their goal. It would certainly appear that a fascist running our nearest neighbour and traditional ally is indeed a price they are happy to pay. What else?
I'd have thought that for an anti-Fascist Brexit was a massive net gain in putting clear blue water between this country and Viktor let's-put-immigrants-in-shipping-containers Orban.
I am struggling where LDs 16 seats will come from.
While I've been a vociferous seller (like most on here), you could get to 17 seats like this:
Current 9, plus:
From SNP Edinburgh West Dumbartonshire East Fife NE
From Labour Cambridge Bristol West Cardiff Central
From Conservatives Bath Kingston Twickenham OxWAb
Less a couple of losses, say North Norfolk and Carshalton.
Now, do I think they'll manage that? No I don't.
But two from the SNP seems likely, and they are odds on in four SNP seats (the ones above plus Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross). Cambridge, given the locals saw a strong swing to the LDs, looks likely. Could you see 3-4 LD gains from Labour? Possibly. There are a couple of strong Remainia seats where they stand a chance or which are four way marginals and therefore the hurdle is likely to be low.
I suspect the LDs will only gain Twickenham from the Tories on the night, but it's possible they pick up Kingston too, plus Bath and OxWAb are very Remain-y.
I suspect that LibDem gains from the SNP are more likely than any of those listed from Labour or the Tories. I still think Labour is well placed to hold Cambridge and will be very surprised if Bermondsey is lost. Richmond is more likely to be lost to the Tories than North Norfolk.
I'm a Right wing Leaver, and I think I'd rather spoil my ballot paper than vote for Zac. I doubt I'm the only one with that view.
Right wing? You are hard left compared to many of our colleagues on PB
'The Independent' has given the CPS a prod today - nothing much to see apart from the line :-
'A spokesman for the CPS told The Independent, "We have nothing to add to our previous position which is that we are working to various deadlines in late May and early June."'
It confirms the view that charges have to be brought, or dropped, for some constituencies at least, before the election.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.
You're describing intent or malice. I'm describing what the polling seems to show - apathy, and no real feeling they need to have a view. You can, of course, persuade the apathetic. Or you could, if you weren't insulting them and calling them nazi sympathisers.
If I'm insulting any group (I don't think I am), I'm laying into those Leavers who claim to have thought things through in depth but who have no interest in exploring why more than 6 million Leavers apparently think that Marine Le Pen's election would have been best for Britain, instead preferring to attack those who point this out. This elevation of Brexit to First Law status is pernicious and highly immoral. But Leavers seem more affronted about being supposedly smeared than in confronting it.
If you really do have a public profile of any kind, and these statements can be attributed to you, then consider the effect you're having on potential clients. Just go back and try to read what you've written from the perspective of any of your friends, family, or colleagues who voted Leave.
I am struggling where LDs 16 seats will come from.
While I've been a vociferous seller (like most on here), you could get to 17 seats like this:
Current 9, plus:
From SNP Edinburgh West Dumbartonshire East Fife NE
From Labour Cambridge Bristol West Cardiff Central
From Conservatives Bath Kingston Twickenham OxWAb
Less a couple of losses, say North Norfolk and Carshalton.
Now, do I think they'll manage that? No I don't.
But two from the SNP seems likely, and they are odds on in four SNP seats (the ones above plus Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross). Cambridge, given the locals saw a strong swing to the LDs, looks likely. Could you see 3-4 LD gains from Labour? Possibly. There are a couple of strong Remainia seats where they stand a chance or which are four way marginals and therefore the hurdle is likely to be low.
I suspect the LDs will only gain Twickenham from the Tories on the night, but it's possible they pick up Kingston too, plus Bath and OxWAb are very Remain-y.
I suspect that LibDem gains from the SNP are more likely than any of those listed from Labour or the Tories. I still think Labour is well placed to hold Cambridge and will be very surprised if Bermondsey is lost. Richmond is more likely to be lost to the Tories than North Norfolk.
I'm a Right wing Leaver, and I think I'd rather spoil my ballot paper than vote for Zac. I doubt I'm the only one with that view.
I still expect the Tories to win it back. The seat would only go LibDem when the Tories are polling poorly with the LibDems having momentum. I don't share your implied views on Brexit will be particularly salient.
I don't actually disagree with you about Richmond. But I think it would be a nailed on Tory gain were Zac not the candidate, against a much more marginal call with him. Re South West London, I wouldn't underestimate the anger re Heathrow expansion too.
As an aside, I think that Brexit will be salient in about a dozen constituencies, and that's all. Most of them will be in London, plus a few studenty ones.
There's certainly an interesting question around what price do Brexiteers consider paying to achieve their goal. It would certainly appear that a fascist running our nearest neighbour and traditional ally is indeed a price they are happy to pay. What else?
There's certainly an interesting question around what price do Brexiteers consider paying to achieve their goal. It would certainly appear that a fascist running our nearest neighbour and traditional ally is indeed a price they are happy to pay. What else?
I think name-calling and political correctness no-longer works as an effective strategy. If Le Pen is a fascist is neither here nor there to most people and had precious little connection to the question asked. You should have noticed that attempts to screech 'racist' every 5 minutes was not very effective in the Brexit campaign. This is much the same - it's just sad that Meeks and a few others don't get that their insults have no effect.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
I think where you're going wrong is that you assume everyone has to care what other countries do within their own borders. My guess (can only be a guess for now) is that Leave voters are inclined not to care unless extreme circumstances present themselves - e.g. there's a humanitarian disaster or said country poses a threat.
Hence when they are asked what's best for Britain in a French election we see a shrug of the shoulders, a general lack of interest, and, if pushed, a preference for the outcome most likely to shake things up. None of that implies those people would vote for the National Front here - they just don't care whether or not the French do.
Exactly my point. Leavers for Fascism is a thing. It doesn't matter if the French put on jackboots so long as that assists Brexit.
You're describing intent or malice. I'm describing what the polling seems to show - apathy, and no real feeling they need to have a view. You can, of course, persuade the apathetic. Or you could, if you weren't insulting them and calling them nazi sympathisers.
If I'm insulting any group (I don't think I am), I'm laying into those Leavers who claim to have thought things through in depth but who have no interest in exploring why more than 6 million Leavers apparently think that Marine Le Pen's election would have been best for Britain, instead preferring to attack those who point this out. This elevation of Brexit to First Law status is pernicious and highly immoral. But Leavers seem more affronted about being supposedly smeared than in confronting it.
If you really do have a public profile of any kind, and these statements can be attributed to you, then consider the effect you're having on potential clients. Just go back and try to read what you've written from the perspective of any of your friends, family, or colleagues who voted Leave.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
The fact that you have to say "who expressed a preference" renders the comment meaningless and hence a smear. The majority didn't express a preference.
I am struggling where LDs 16 seats will come from.
While I've been a vociferous seller (like most on here), you could get to 17 seats like this:
Current 9, plus:
From SNP Edinburgh West Dumbartonshire East Fife NE
From Labour Cambridge Bristol West Cardiff Central
From Conservatives Bath Kingston Twickenham OxWAb
Less a couple of losses, say North Norfolk and Carshalton.
Now, do I think they'll manage that? No I don't.
But two from the SNP seems likely, and they are odds on in four SNP seats (the ones above plus Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross). Cambridge, given the locals saw a strong swing to the LDs, looks likely. Could you see 3-4 LD gains from Labour? Possibly. There are a couple of strong Remainia seats where they stand a chance or which are four way marginals and therefore the hurdle is likely to be low.
I suspect the LDs will only gain Twickenham from the Tories on the night, but it's possible they pick up Kingston too, plus Bath and OxWAb are very Remain-y.
I suspect that LibDem gains from the SNP are more likely than any of those listed from Labour or the Tories. I still think Labour is well placed to hold Cambridge and will be very surprised if Bermondsey is lost. Richmond is more likely to be lost to the Tories than North Norfolk.
I'm a Right wing Leaver, and I think I'd rather spoil my ballot paper than vote for Zac. I doubt I'm the only one with that view.
I still expect the Tories to win it back. The seat would only go LibDem when the Tories are polling poorly with the LibDems having momentum. I don't share your implied views on Brexit will be particularly salient.
I don't actually disagree with you about Richmond. But I think it would be a nailed on Tory gain were Zac not the candidate, against a much more marginal call with him. Re South West London, I wouldn't underestimate the anger re Heathrow expansion too.
As an aside, I think that Brexit will be salient in about a dozen constituencies, and that's all. Most of them will be in London, plus a few studenty ones.
Don't rule out Manchester Withington. The Lib Dem candidate is optimistic
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
The fact that you have to say "who expressed a preference" renders the comment meaningless and hence a smear. The majority didn't express a preference.
Of course it doesn't render it meaningless. It's hardly a statistical fluke. It's a real indication of the division of sympathies among Leavers who have paid attention to the subject. It's not as though it was close.
Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.
I've already made my forecast for the election and given the Lib Dems 10-15 seats, and I'm happy to stick with that - I still think that their gains are likely to exceed their losses, if not by very much. But a total of less than 10 is certainly not out of the question.
The GE will see a a Tory Tsunami.It will be almost impossible to make any gains against that (except possibly in Scotland )The best end result is likely to be under 10 seats with the risk of near wipeout.
My rationale for continuing to predict a small net advance for the Lib Dems is as follows:
1. Of their nine defences, Southport and Carshalton & Wallington are probably lost. But out of the remaining Tory-facing defences...
(a) Westmorland & Lonsdale has a fat majority, and there's not much of a Ukip vote available for the Conservatives to squeeze. (b) Richmond Park only recent flipped over to the Lib Dems, and given the Tories' baffling reselection of Zac Goldsmith you'd have to give Sarah Olney a fighting chance. (c) Norman Lamb's majority in North Norfolk is only about half the size of the 2015 Ukip vote, but the Lib Dems did make some progress in terms of council seats last week, and I am given to understand that he's quite popular locally. The 4% swing needed to unseat him is perfectly achievable for the Tories, but it's not a done deal.
In short, I reckon that Farron is safe and at least one out of Olney and Lamb should survive on the balance of probabilities. The four remaining defences are against Labour, the SNP and Plaid Cymru and seem likely to hold, so that gives them six surviving 2015 MPs to work with.
2. Obviously working upwards from six, they only need to make four gains to get into double figures. You can make a good case for the majority of seats on their target list at least as far down as Fife North East, but if we take Cambridge for granted and assume that it is very likely that Vince Cable will return in Twickenham then that only leaves them two more seats to find, and two gains in Scotland is a realistic target, without starting to think about the likes of Lewes, Kingston & Surbiton and Bath.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
What percentage of total number of Leavers expressed a preference?
I've seen some truly amazing defences in my time, but this one is astonishing.
ORAL SEX DEATH TRIAL Man asks to show murder jury his PENIS as evidence his lover died accidentally choking during oral sex
Florida man Richard Henry Patterson's legal team say the size of his manhood is key to the defence's case
A MAN has demanded a judge allow him to show his penis to a jury to prove his girlfriend choked to death during oral sex.
A Florida court is considering the request made during the trial of Richard Henry Patterson.
The pensioner is accused of murdering his girlfriend in her bedroom in October 2015.
He claims 60-year-old Francisca Marquinez’s death was an accident that occurred during a sex session.
The 65-year-old from Margate, on the Floridian south coast, has previously admitted choking his girlfriend but never explained how, the local Sun Sentinel reports.
His attorney, Ken Padowitz, has told the court that the size of his member is a key factor in the defences case.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
What percentage of total number of Leavers expressed a preference?
I'm not sure what the problem is. Maybe people were just narrowly answering the question. It doesn't mean they thought she would be a good president of France, I don't think they were asked that question.
There's certainly an interesting question around what price do Brexiteers consider paying to achieve their goal. It would certainly appear that a fascist running our nearest neighbour and traditional ally is indeed a price they are happy to pay. What else?
There's certainly an interesting question around what price do Brexiteers consider paying to achieve their goal. It would certainly appear that a fascist running our nearest neighbour and traditional ally is indeed a price they are happy to pay. What else?
I think name-calling and political correctness no-longer works as an effective strategy. If Le Pen is a fascist is neither here nor there to most people and had precious little connection to the question asked. You should have noticed that attempts to screech 'racist' every 5 minutes was not very effective in the Brexit campaign. This is much the same - it's just sad that Meeks and a few others don't get that their insults have no effect.
Name calling? It's like calling me a Leftie. I have no idea why and when the broader Right became such sensitive kittens. Alastair (not sure why you name call him by his surname?) is simply citing polling evidence.
If Electoral Calculus' model is accurate, then the coalition of chaos might be scoring some own goals.
Don't know about the model, but the fundamental problem with all these "progressive alliance" theories is they always make the mistake of assuming that voters think and vote like activists. Denied the choice of their favoured party many voters will just not vote. Similarly many will transfer to the party that the progressive alliance is designed to oppose.
If one takes a constituency like Brighton Pavilion, what is the actual thinking by the Green's seeking to get Lib/Lab to stand-down? The Conservatives are already 20pts behind Caroline Lucas. There is a pretty negligible UKIP vote to squeeze. The only way she could realistically be under threat is if a sizeable chunk of Labour voters (and/or Green voters) defected to the Conservatives. But simply acknowledging this possibility reveals the flaws is taking the voters for granted as outlined above.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
The fact that you have to say "who expressed a preference" renders the comment meaningless and hence a smear. The majority didn't express a preference.
Instead of accusing others of bullying and smearing, telling people to fuck off, pour yourself a glass of Shiraz, and chill out, engage with the argument.
Labour MP out knocking on doors tonight in safe seat Stockton North. I expect he is rattled by the mayoral election. Also, not a mention of Corn on his leaflet, funny that....
Stockton N through 'the universal switcher' model with both Yougov and ICM is a Tory gain.
Yeah, I've just looked and in 2010 there was a considerable LD vote that utterly vanished in 2015, replaced by a similarly sized UKIP vote. Seems like enough anti Labour vote to make it count.
I've already made my forecast for the election and given the Lib Dems 10-15 seats, and I'm happy to stick with that - I still think that their gains are likely to exceed their losses, if not by very much. But a total of less than 10 is certainly not out of the question.
The GE will see a a Tory Tsunami.It will be almost impossible to make any gains against that (except possibly in Scotland )The best end result is likely to be under 10 seats with the risk of near wipeout.
My rationale for continuing to predict a small net advance for the Lib Dems is as follows:
1. Of their nine defences, Southport and Carshalton & Wallington are probably lost. But out of the remaining Tory-facing defences...
(a) Westmorland & Lonsdale has a fat majority, and there's not much of a Ukip vote available for the Conservatives to squeeze. (b) Richmond Park only recent flipped over to the Lib Dems, and given the Tories' baffling reselection of Zac Goldsmith you'd have to give Sarah Olney a fighting chance. (c) Norman Lamb's majority in North Norfolk is only about half the size of the 2015 Ukip vote, but the Lib Dems did make some progress in terms of council seats last week, and I am given to understand that he's quite popular locally. The 4% swing needed to unseat him is perfectly achievable for the Tories, but it's not a done deal.
In short, I reckon that Farron is safe and at least one out of Olney and Lamb should survive on the balance of probabilities. The four remaining defences are against Labour, the SNP and Plaid Cymru and seem likely to hold, so that gives them six surviving 2015 MPs to work with.
2. Obviously working upwards from six, they only need to make four gains to get into double figures. You can make a good case for the majority of seats on their target list at least as far down as Fife North East, but if we take Cambridge for granted and assume that it is very likely that Vince Cable will return in Twickenham then that only leaves them two more seats to find, and two gains in Scotland is a realistic target, without starting to think about the likes of Lewes, Kingston & Surbiton and Bath.
I don't expect the LDs to win any seats from Labour. Where there is a threat - as in Cambridge - Labour can still play the 'Tories little helper' card to some effect.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
The fact that you have to say "who expressed a preference" renders the comment meaningless and hence a smear. The majority didn't express a preference.
Instead of accusing others of bullying and smearing, telling people to fuck off, pour yourself a glass of Shiraz, and chill out, engage with the argument.
How many Leavers out of the total sample expressed a preference?
If Electoral Calculus' model is accurate, then the coalition of chaos might be scoring some own goals.
Don't know about the model, but the fundamental problem with all these "progressive alliance" theories is they always make the mistake of assuming that voters think and vote like activists. Denied the choice of their favoured party many voters will just not vote. Similarly many will transfer to the party that the progressive alliance is designed to oppose.
If one takes a constituency like Brighton Pavilion, what is the actual thinking by the Green's seeking to get Lib/Lab to stand-down? The Conservatives are already 20pts behind Caroline Lucas. There is a pretty negligible UKIP vote to squeeze. The only way she could realistically be under threat is if a sizeable chunk of Labour voters (and/or Green voters) defected to the Conservatives. But simply acknowledging this possibility reveals the flaws is taking the voters for granted as outlined above.
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
The fact that you have to say "who expressed a preference" renders the comment meaningless and hence a smear. The majority didn't express a preference.
Of course it doesn't render it meaningless. It's hardly a statistical fluke. It's a real indication of the division of sympathies among Leavers who have paid attention to the subject. It's not as though it was close.
How high does the 'no opinion' level have to be before the results of the leftovers become irrelevant? If 100 were asked, 98 abstained and 2 said Le Pen, you could say "100% of Leavers who expressed a preference...." and it would only be marginally less tenuous than the nonsense you are repeating.
Add the fact that those who think Le Pen would be better for us because she is anti EU, even if they think she is a bad person, are included in your 8/10 cats argument and it's even more ridiculous
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
What percentage of total number of Leavers expressed a preference?
That seems a pertinent question. Again, link please from anyone who has one.
Basically I think my daughter is a bit odd as she asked for a bible for her birthday. So she be got it for her and as always I turn straight to ezikial to find the pulp fiction quote but never can despite looking in various versions and translations throughout the years. I finally googled it tonight and a person who had done the hard work for me.
Those Brexit-bashers who say ‘Brexit-Trump-Le-Pen’ almost as one word, as if they are the same thing, all weird, all evil, all a species of fascism, have got it utterly wrong.
Remind anyone of anyone?
It reminds me that Brendan O'Neill is a pisspoor writer. More than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought that Marine Le Pen was the best option for Britain. That's hard to square with the idea that Brexiteers are Marine Le Pen's natural opponents.
You're still repeating that spin?
It's called the truth.
If it's the truth, why are only 9% of all voters "disappointed" or "angry" that she lost?
Your inability to read what you quoted perhaps explains your confusion.
As I pointed out earlier, these stats give the lie to your smearing of Leavers as Le Pen lovers.
You are ignoring clear polling evidence on the subject and misrepresenting that polling evidence that you cite then. You may feel it very awkward that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought Marine Le Pen was best for Britain, but you can't just wish it away by shooting the messenger.
What percentage of total number of Leavers expressed a preference?
That seems a pertinent question. Again, link please from anyone who has one.
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
It looks like Diane is suggesting much earlier than that - "over hundreds of years before Christ".
Obviously hundreds often means tens where she is concerned.
"What difference does an additional nought or two at the end make?" seems to be the way she approaches all thngs numerical
Is there not a slight issue with the accuracy of the reporting?
I was under the impression from previous announcements that 30 people from 15 constituencies were under investigation. This would most likely be comprised of 15 MPs ans 15 Agents.
It is always possible the mirror is right, they must have access to good information from all that phone hacking.
This from a graduate of Cambridge "University", ffs.
In fairness there is evidence of extensive trade links, certainly from the mid 50s BC onwards so plausible before then. In this context it's likely that there were blacks (or at least African born) Romans in Britain in the time frame she suggests
There probably were a small number of black Roman officers. But not hundreds of years BC in this country.
This week would be ideal, would allow the Tories to put in replacement candidates if charges happen early this week.
Standing candidates down would be an admission of guilt. Why would they do that?
"Colin Backbencher denies wrongdoing, but is selflessly standing aside to avoid being a distraction to the Conservative campaign. Colin said, 'I will devote my energies to clearing my name but, in the meantime, I want to do nothing to detract from the core issue in the election, which is securing strong and stable leadership with Theresa May and her team.'"
There's certainly an interesting question around what price do Brexiteers consider paying to achieve their goal. It would certainly appear that a fascist running our nearest neighbour and traditional ally is indeed a price they are happy to pay. What else?
There's certainly an interesting question around what price do Brexiteers consider paying to achieve their goal. It would certainly appear that a fascist running our nearest neighbour and traditional ally is indeed a price they are happy to pay. What else?
I think name-calling and political correctness no-longer works as an effective strategy. If Le Pen is a fascist is neither here nor there to most people and had precious little connection to the question asked. You should have noticed that attempts to screech 'racist' every 5 minutes was not very effective in the Brexit campaign. This is much the same - it's just sad that Meeks and a few others don't get that their insults have no effect.
Name calling? It's like calling me a Leftie. I have no idea why and when the broader Right became such sensitive kittens. Alastair (not sure why you name call him by his surname?) is simply citing polling evidence.
The point I was making was that people are not embarrassed by being even remotely linked to an alleged fascist because for most the term has no meaning. As a result of it's overuse. Exactly the same applies to 'raaaaccciisssmm'. what you and Meeks don't get is that the general reaction of most people when such insults are hurled is just 'meh'. I neither supported Le Pen or voted for Brexit but her possible election left me largely indifferent. And as for Brexit I respect the voters choice and move on. I care nothing for their motives - it doesn't change the result. As for Mr. Meeks he is distorting polling evidence to disrespect those who take a different view from him.
Comments
It is not enough to succeed, others have to fail.
Futile hypocrisy
'A spokesman for the CPS told The Independent, "We have nothing to add to our previous position which is that we are working to various deadlines in late May and early June."'
It confirms the view that charges have to be brought, or dropped, for some constituencies at least, before the election.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2017-theresa-may-tory-fraud-investigation-expenses-scandal-cps-decide-press-charges-a7723501.html
RobD: "Knock it off, Sunil!"
Do you still think that the Supreme Court got the law wrong about whether the referendum was advisory?
PS - you don't need RPGs to eat babies!
The fact that a clear majority didn't express a preference undercuts your whole point
Worse for UKIP however, down 1.85%.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/861618328191815680
Beyond there, Con gains from the LDs look much harder. Ceredgion is a fight with Plaid. Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam, as well as being big Remain seats, are Lab/LD. Orkney & Shetland will be held with a big LD majority if the Holyrood elections are any guide (67.4% of the vote). Westmoreland & Lonsdale has a big Farron personal vote, and they just managed pretty decent local election results there.
Given Cambridge saw the LD vote share up 10% since 2015 last week (when they lost it marginally), and there are three very good shots in Scotland (Edinburgh West looks a near cert given both Holyrood and Scottish local results, while I would have thought one of Fife NE and Dumbartonshire East will likely come in). This gets you back to 9 seats, with a reasonable chance of the LDs picking up one of the seats in deepest Remania, or a three/four way marginal.
Worth remembering that despite losing seats last week, the LDs increased their total number of votes by close to 40%. Now, that'd only take them to 11.3% nationally. But those votes have to go somewhere.
It's entirely possible the LDs get less than 10 seats and I've bet on it at 8-1. But realistically, it's probably a 25-30% shot, not a 70% one.
https://twitter.com/GillTroughton/status/861658233919995904
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/861668919257518080
New Electoral Calculus estimates.
Unless she is certain that there can't be a big media storm because of the sub judice rules.
As an aside, I think that Brexit will be salient in about a dozen constituencies, and that's all. Most of them will be in London, plus a few studenty ones.
1. Of their nine defences, Southport and Carshalton & Wallington are probably lost. But out of the remaining Tory-facing defences...
(a) Westmorland & Lonsdale has a fat majority, and there's not much of a Ukip vote available for the Conservatives to squeeze.
(b) Richmond Park only recent flipped over to the Lib Dems, and given the Tories' baffling reselection of Zac Goldsmith you'd have to give Sarah Olney a fighting chance.
(c) Norman Lamb's majority in North Norfolk is only about half the size of the 2015 Ukip vote, but the Lib Dems did make some progress in terms of council seats last week, and I am given to understand that he's quite popular locally. The 4% swing needed to unseat him is perfectly achievable for the Tories, but it's not a done deal.
In short, I reckon that Farron is safe and at least one out of Olney and Lamb should survive on the balance of probabilities. The four remaining defences are against Labour, the SNP and Plaid Cymru and seem likely to hold, so that gives them six surviving 2015 MPs to work with.
2. Obviously working upwards from six, they only need to make four gains to get into double figures. You can make a good case for the majority of seats on their target list at least as far down as Fife North East, but if we take Cambridge for granted and assume that it is very likely that Vince Cable will return in Twickenham then that only leaves them two more seats to find, and two gains in Scotland is a realistic target, without starting to think about the likes of Lewes, Kingston & Surbiton and Bath.
ORAL SEX DEATH TRIAL Man asks to show murder jury his PENIS as evidence his lover died accidentally choking during oral sex
Florida man Richard Henry Patterson's legal team say the size of his manhood is key to the defence's case
A MAN has demanded a judge allow him to show his penis to a jury to prove his girlfriend choked to death during oral sex.
A Florida court is considering the request made during the trial of Richard Henry Patterson.
The pensioner is accused of murdering his girlfriend in her bedroom in October 2015.
He claims 60-year-old Francisca Marquinez’s death was an accident that occurred during a sex session.
The 65-year-old from Margate, on the Floridian south coast, has previously admitted choking his girlfriend but never explained how, the local Sun Sentinel reports.
His attorney, Ken Padowitz, has told the court that the size of his member is a key factor in the defences case.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3502754/man-asks-to-show-murder-jury-his-penis-as-evidence-his-lover-died-accidentally-choking-during-oral-sex/
If one takes a constituency like Brighton Pavilion, what is the actual thinking by the Green's seeking to get Lib/Lab to stand-down? The Conservatives are already 20pts behind Caroline Lucas. There is a pretty negligible UKIP vote to squeeze. The only way she could realistically be under threat is if a sizeable chunk of Labour voters (and/or Green voters) defected to the Conservatives. But simply acknowledging this possibility reveals the flaws is taking the voters for granted as outlined above.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/861671718376570883
"Prosecutors to reveal if they'll charge up to 30 Tory MPs with election fraud THIS WEEK"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/prosecutors-reveal-theyll-charge-up-10382571
Add the fact that those who think Le Pen would be better for us because she is anti EU, even if they think she is a bad person, are included in your 8/10 cats argument and it's even more ridiculous
Wow.
http://truthbygrace.org/pulp-fiction-and-ezekiel-2517/
Basically I think my daughter is a bit odd as she asked for a bible for her birthday. So she be got it for her and as always I turn straight to ezikial to find the pulp fiction quote but never can despite looking in various versions and translations throughout the years. I finally googled it tonight and a person who had done the hard work for me.
The advert had to be amended to '8 out of ten cat owners who expressed a preferance...'
Obviously hundreds often means tens where she is concerned.
"What difference does an additional nought or two at the end make?" seems to be the way she approaches all thngs numerical
I was under the impression from previous announcements that 30 people from 15 constituencies were under investigation. This would most likely be comprised of 15 MPs ans 15 Agents.
It is always possible the mirror is right, they must have access to good information from all that phone hacking.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/08/snap-election-raises-risk-of-democratic-deficit-say-youth-vote-campaigners
Be interesting to see if we do get a big surge in student registrations and if that turns into votes.