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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Theresa May planning on toppling Tim Farron?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Theresa May planning on toppling Tim Farron?
We analysed which seats the Conservatives are targeting based on their (legal, neat) local newspaper ad buys. https://t.co/gNIU13BMcK pic.twitter.com/NTAu7s9yNa
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While it is quite unlikely, it would be delicious revenge!
Isn't Dr Who for children?
Revenge is a dish best served cold:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1489270/Defiant-Kennedy-takes-decapitation-strategy-into-Tory-heartland.html
Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?
What a difference 20 years makes!
Off for my third cuppa.
Oops. I'd forgotten there isn't anyone else up to the job.
Twickenham 1.5 LD 2.32Con
Kingston LD 1.88 Con 1.75
Brighton K Con 1.06
All from Betfair Exchange https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics
I can't accept that there is no mechanism short of a bus that can get rid of at least one of them so they can be replaced by someone with voter appeal.
He was a little slow to clarify on the gay sex question, but has a good record where it matters in the Commons voting on LGBT issues. I suspect that in socially conservative Cumbria his well known Evangelical Christianity would not count against him.
I have been very bearish on LD prospects, but this is not a bet that I would back. Farron is not going to do worse than 2015. He is popular locally, has name recognition and there is a small swing to LD. File it with TSE's tip on Diane Abbott as leader.
Jenkins in 1987, I would guess.
However, before that I think it would be Sinclair in 1945, so it's become unusual. Between the wars it happened a lot- Samuel in 1935, Henderson in 1931, Asquith in 1918 and 1924...
I would be surprised if he lost, but I suppose you can never tell. My guess however would be that the real target is Barrow and the Westmorland part was incidental to that.
Edit - my mistake, Jenkins was not of course leader by 1987. So it would be Sinclair.
It's very difficult to see Blackburn avoiding the drop today (away at Brentford) .... I've backed them to go down at 1.60 (1.57 net) with BetfairEx. DYOR.
A good leader choice for the LDs right up until Labour outbid them with Corbyn.
I'd already put a small sum on the GE being a Night of the Long Fish Fingers.
I was aware only one chap fell to the much touted decapitation strategy, but didn't realise Farron was the chap who benefited.
Why are the LDs running geriatric retreads in targets like Twickenham, rather than having the known politician support new blood?
Everyone any good was forced out of Labour by Brown, so even when Corbyn and co eventually give up there's only a couple of people waiting - if they don't lose their seats as Labour spend all their efforts of the next six weeks targeting London and Liverpool.
On politics in general, lots of very good people are put off by having to constantly live their lives in public as is the modern way. The parties need to hold on to the good ones they've got.
I did Paddy's first PPB after becoming leader and the difference couldn't be more striking. He dominated the room and gathered an amused crowd even among a hard bitten film crew. The personality of a natural leader is quite a special thing and I really worry that Farron doesn't have it nice though he is. Anyway chin up!
However, the Westminster party leader most likely to be gone by midday on 9/6/17 is the member for Moray since 2001. If the Labour party get about 30% of the vote (as currently seems likely), why should Corbyn resign?
Edited extra bit: and welcome to pb.com
To be honest I don’t see Tim Farron losing his seat as a ‘Portillo’ moment, but there are quite a few on the Labour benches who would qualify imo, and the loss of a brace of Eagle sisters would be doubly plus good.
I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.
Edit: Forget the first bit. I misunderstood daodao.
One has a majority of 16K the other 27K
But if it did, May would be toast.
Urban kippers may not behave the same as those on the coast. Liddle has a valid point, even if a little over egged, about the Conservative vote becoming less efficient. The Labour vote may do the same, leaving fewer swing seats than ever.
All of that must be true, after all, as Jeremy Corbyn has said so and we know he is an honest and principled man who offers a new kinder, gentler politics.
"The old coalition between progressive elites and the proletariat is broken. The former are too liberal on immigration, too in love with multiculturalism. The latter loathe both. As David Goodhart shrewdly observed 13 years ago, a redistributive welfare state is viable only in an ethnically homogeneous society. He was vilified for saying it. He has been vindicated by events."
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704
Here’s why.
I’m sure no one will be surprised that my reasons are as much negative as anything else. They can also be summed up in two words: Jeremy Corbyn.
What’s so wrong with that nice Mr Corbyn? I like allotments. I like North London. Well, in the first place, as was said about Tsar Nicholas II, he’s not fit to run a village post office – just imagine Diane Abbott doing the figures. But if only it were incompetence alone. Some of Corbyn’s fans are simply naïve, but he, his circle, and some of his followers are genuinely venal. Later, I will summon up other ghosts; for now, let’s remember the delights of Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin, or the currently all too extant Seumas Milne and John McDonnell. The thought of the great offices of state being occupied by Corbyn, Abbott, Thornberry and McDonnell (who, as Daniel Finklestein pointed out, is worst of all) is one to chill the bones of any sensible analyst.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/simon-tilbrook-im-a-lifelong-labour-supporter-and-an-arch-remainer-heres-why-im-voting-conservative.html
As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?
I think that this wraparound just reflects the paucity of conservative activists young enough to pound the pavements, hence the bussed in youngsters in the 2015 election. Farron has them in spades.
Nicholas may have been a dreadful Tsar who was as Witte said unfit to run a post office, but he was a good husband and devoted father.
You can't even say that about Jeremy Corbyn.
If she is to be described as a "big hitter", then Labour really are in deep shit.
http://www.cornwalllive.com/cornwall-local-elections-what-happens-next-and-what-the-result-says-about-the-general-election/story-30316634-detail/story.html
Still everything to play for the LDs - I wonder if we will get a state visit from David Cameron?
If everybody was a PBer, then the last day would be sufficient, but given general casual interest/apathy, weeks are needed.
If you're saying this shows him as a good husband and father, then I have to say I think you have a somewhat different view of a 'good' family man from mine.
That's not personal, just a statement of fact. I realise that speaking the truth about Corbyn will not make me popular with Labour diehards such as yourself.
He is a loathsome person, an utter failure and has no redeeming features, being a genuine blight upon our democracy. Personal or not, whether you like it or not, that is the truth.
I'm not sure I'm happy with political adverts in that form as it's not immediately obvious that they are paid advertising rather than editorial content. I know all sides use them and I expect they are effective, but still...
In fact, the talent across the political spectrum is limited these days. Is there a reason for this? Are talented people just giving politics a miss these days?
In 2010 Farron got 60% of the vote, which fell to 51.5% in 2015.
His popularity may have since increased through becoming party leader, but conversely his previously well hidden leftism is now apparent to all. W&L is a largely rural constituency, which are not necessarily famed for being lefty and the Tories have selected a local farmer come councillor to be Farron's opponent.
UKIP took 3051 votes in 2015, which could go to the Tories.
Younger people in the constituency appear to be abandoning Farron in swathes over the gay sex issue.
47.1% of South Lakeland voted leave and these voters could potentially object to Farron's stance on the EU.
The fact that the Tories are planning a wrap around ad suggests that they think the seat could be winnable, but I agree with Dr Fox about the impact of such ads.
I suspect that Mr Fishfinger's friends will vote for him, but nobody else.
That said, I agree she'd probably do quite well. The question is, would the membership elect her? I have my doubts that the Labour Party is suddenly going to do a 180 degree turn overnight.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/jeremy-corbyns-son-planning-stand-mp-safe-labour-seat/
His other son is doing engineering at York University but also seems close:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/03/jeremy-corbyns-son-mugged-thief-moped-fathers-constituency/
I am not sure about his third son, but It does seem that he is a reasonably good father.
"I know Labour MPs with majorities in the 10,000 bracket who have become terrified that they will be consumed by the blue beast."
https://order-order.com/2017/05/04/labours-daft-advertising-whinge/
Personally not a fan of front page wrap-arounds, but if it keeps local journalism running then I guess it's a good thing overall.
"David Cameron showed his face at the Oval last week for a fundraising dinner for a new cricket stadium in Rwanda. With guests still reeling from the news that he spent £25,000 on a garden shed, the forgotten man of Tory politics thanked them for “getting me out of my shepherd hut”. Cameron risked the wrath of his successor by explaining the purchase thus: “I know Theresa talks about strong and stable leadership but I only heard the first part about getting a strong stable.”" S.T.
You could spend years pounding the pavement, kissing the right arses, carrying the bags of more important people, whilst earning less than you would as a junior manager at most blue chip companies, and then one day you have a slight slip of the keyboard on Twitter, and get torn apart by the keyboard activists and lambasted by the press, and your incipient career is over, if you are lucky with your family intact....
However, the battle between the SNP and the conservatives is for the future of the Union and it does look as if Nicola may have been premature in her drive for indy2 but I do think Salmond overcame her instinct and pressured her into the move she made.
I am not suggesting that Ruth Davidson is about to become FM anytime soon but at last there is a real opposition to Nicola for the first time in a long time
What your sons doing well at school has to do with parentage is another question. A lot of kids do well despite their parents.
Alternatively the national parties can just take advantage of the free publicity they get from the editorial and opinion team of their supportive newspapers.
The Mansfield Chad is actually The Mansfield and Ashfield Chad, with 2 editions with somewhat (25%?) different content matching the two constituencies quite well. The Chad has always been the utterly dominant local paper.
Are BF saying that the ad did not reach Ashfield, so Alan Meale is targeted whilst Gloria is not?
Similarly the Derbyshire Times (readers: 100k+) is countywide minus Derby (I think) with 5 editions for Chesterfield/Clay Cross, East, North East, Alfreton area, and Matlock/Peak (Wiki).
Is BF saying the others are *not* targetted?
* While backing him at long odds (still good on BF) helps, he has particularly campaigned on a few issues concerning alcoholism and addiction. He has grown on me, and he is a fresh face rather than a New Labour retread.