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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Theresa May planning on toppling Tim Farron?

We analysed which seats the Conservatives are targeting based on their (legal, neat) local newspaper ad buys. https://t.co/gNIU13BMcK pic.twitter.com/NTAu7s9yNa

Read the full story here

RobD

"Black widow strategy"... I like it!

While it is quite unlikely, it would be delicious revenge!

IanB2

No, next

Isn't Dr Who for children?

RobD

and *ahem* that last sentence.

old_labour

RobD said:

and *ahem* that last sentence.

Sandpit

Fifth, too late to the party.

CarlottaVance

RobD said:

and *ahem* that last sentence.

I think we've finally found someone TSE dislikes even more than Mrs May!

Revenge is a dish best served cold:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1489270/Defiant-Kennedy-takes-decapitation-strategy-into-Tory-heartland.html

surbiton

Good Morning. I see a few of the usual suspects are up and about already.

Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?

RobD

surbiton said:

Good Morning. I see a few of the usual suspects are up and about already.

Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?

Have you heard of time zones?

RobD

BTW - Look at these headlines I stumbled upon - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxHfjYFrXRU

What a difference 20 years makes!

peter_from_putney

RobD said:

BTW - Look at these headlines I stumbled upon - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxHfjYFrXRU

What a difference 20 years makes!

Stumbled on it did you? ..... Some stumble!

surbiton

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Good Morning. I see a few of the usual suspects are up and about already.

Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?

Have you heard of time zones?

Mid Atlantic ? No.

Off for my third cuppa.

peter_from_putney

The question is .... would Farron give someone else a go if his party's MPs could still fit into two London Black Cabs.
Oops. I'd forgotten there isn't anyone else up to the job.

Roger

RobD said:

BTW - Look at these headlines I stumbled upon - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxHfjYFrXRU

What a difference 20 years makes!

The BBC accents then were noticeably more plummy.

RobD

peter_from_putney said:

RobD said:

BTW - Look at these headlines I stumbled upon - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxHfjYFrXRU

What a difference 20 years makes!

Stumbled on it did you? ..... Some stumble!

The wonders of the suggestions on the right!

RobD

surbiton said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Good Morning. I see a few of the usual suspects are up and about already.

Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?

Have you heard of time zones?

Mid Atlantic ? No.

Off for my third cuppa.

Wouldn't it be like 4am mid-atlantic?

Sandpit

surbiton said:

Good Morning. I see a few of the usual suspects are up and about already.

Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?

Morning, it's a little easier when you're a few hours ahead

Twickenham 1.5 LD 2.32Con
Kingston LD 1.88 Con 1.75
Brighton K Con 1.06

All from Betfair Exchange https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics

surbiton

RobD said:

surbiton said:

RobD said:

surbiton said:

Good Morning. I see a few of the usual suspects are up and about already.

Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?

Have you heard of time zones?

Mid Atlantic ? No.

Off for my third cuppa.

Wouldn't it be like 4am mid-atlantic?

A bit too early to think. I need another cuppa.

SquareRoot

When was the last time a Party leader lost his seat.(ie Con Lab or Lib/ LIb Dem)/ SDP Alliance. Was it David Owen in Plymouth or wasn't he leader then>??

surbiton

peter_from_putney said:

The question is .... would Farron give someone else a go if his party's MPs could still fit into two London Black Cabs.
Oops. I'd forgotten there isn't anyone else up to the job.

In fact, there will be a quite a few if one or two gets elected. Clegg, Davey, Cable. I don't think Simon Hughes will get elected.

Roger

surbiton said:

Good Morning. I see a few of the usual suspects are up and about already.

Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?

We're stumbling into a disaster here. Corbyn and Farron are the least impressive leaders of their respective parties in my lifetime. Though I can't say the same of May I think she'll be as dangerous as Thatcher with a large majority.

I can't accept that there is no mechanism short of a bus that can get rid of at least one of them so they can be replaced by someone with voter appeal.

SingingOrganGrinder

I presume that Fish Finger for MP in Westmorland is the stalking horse.

foxinsoxuk

Roger said:

surbiton said:

Good Morning. I see a few of the usual suspects are up and about already.

Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?

We're stumbling into a disaster here. Corbyn and Farron are the least impressive leaders of their respective parties in my lifetime. Though I can't say the same of May I think she'll be as dangerous as Thatcher with a large majority.

I can't accept that there is no mechanism short of a bus that can get rid of at least one of them so they can be replaced by someone with voter appeal.

I voted for Lamb in the leadership, but at the hustings was impressed with Farron. He certainly has built on the cult of shoeleather, doubling the party membership.

He was a little slow to clarify on the gay sex question, but has a good record where it matters in the Commons voting on LGBT issues. I suspect that in socially conservative Cumbria his well known Evangelical Christianity would not count against him.

I have been very bearish on LD prospects, but this is not a bet that I would back. Farron is not going to do worse than 2015. He is popular locally, has name recognition and there is a small swing to LD. File it with TSE's tip on Diane Abbott as leader.

ydoethur

SquareRoot said:

When was the last time a Party leader lost his seat.(ie Con Lab or Lib/ LIb Dem)/ SDP Alliance. Was it David Owen in Plymouth or wasn't he leader then>??

The party had been officially abolished by then.

Jenkins in 1987, I would guess.

However, before that I think it would be Sinclair in 1945, so it's become unusual. Between the wars it happened a lot- Samuel in 1935, Henderson in 1931, Asquith in 1918 and 1924...

I would be surprised if he lost, but I suppose you can never tell. My guess however would be that the real target is Barrow and the Westmorland part was incidental to that.

Edit - my mistake, Jenkins was not of course leader by 1987. So it would be Sinclair.

peter_from_putney

O/T
It's very difficult to see Blackburn avoiding the drop today (away at Brentford) .... I've backed them to go down at 1.60 (1.57 net) with BetfairEx. DYOR.

SquareRoot

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

When was the last time a Party leader lost his seat.(ie Con Lab or Lib/ LIb Dem)/ SDP Alliance. Was it David Owen in Plymouth or wasn't he leader then>??

The party had been officially abolished by then.

Jenkins in 1987, I would guess.

However, before that I think it would be Sinclair in 1945, so it's become unusual. Between the wars it happened a lot- Samuel in 1935, Henderson in 1931, Asquith in 1918 and 1924...

I would be surprised if he lost, but I suppose you can never tell. My guess however would be that the real target is Barrow and the Westmorland part was incidental to that.

Edit - my mistake, Jenkins was not of course leader by 1987. So it would be Sinclair.

Thanks I do remember Owen , I think Plymouth Devonport smiling when the result was announced. I cannot find a clip on you tube

peter_from_putney

surbiton said:

peter_from_putney said:

The question is .... would Farron give someone else a go if his party's MPs could still fit into two London Black Cabs.
Oops. I'd forgotten there isn't anyone else up to the job.

In fact, there will be a quite a few if one or two gets elected. Clegg, Davey, Cable. I don't think Simon Hughes will get elected.

Vince Cable? ..... He's 74 on Tuesday, Dearie Me!

Jonathan

Farron Farout.

A good leader choice for the LDs right up until Labour outbid them with Corbyn.

AlastairMeeks

I expect he's ok. But having the Lib Dem leader in his own constituency at times in the campaign when he could be in Lib Dem / Conservative marginals will suit the Conservatives just fine.

frpenkridge

Rod Liddle in the Sunday Times reckons after a straw poll that the Conservatives will hoover up ex-UKIP votes in the south, where they don't need them, but only 20% of them in the north, where they do. Reckons Mrs May will end up no better than she is now.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

I'd already put a small sum on the GE being a Night of the Long Fish Fingers.

I was aware only one chap fell to the much touted decapitation strategy, but didn't realise Farron was the chap who benefited.

Sandpit

Roger said:

surbiton said:

Good Morning. I see a few of the usual suspects are up and about already.

Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?

We're stumbling into a disaster here. Corbyn and Farron are the least impressive leaders of their respective parties in my lifetime. Though I can't say the same of May I think she'll be as dangerous as Thatcher with a large majority.

I can't accept that there is no mechanism short of a bus that can get rid of at least one of them so they can be replaced by someone with voter appeal.

It's not just the leaders though, it's the lack of anyone waiting in the wings. Where is the next Andy Street or David Cameron waiting to come through any of the other parties? I guess Kier Starmer maybe?

Why are the LDs running geriatric retreads in targets like Twickenham, rather than having the known politician support new blood?

Everyone any good was forced out of Labour by Brown, so even when Corbyn and co eventually give up there's only a couple of people waiting - if they don't lose their seats as Labour spend all their efforts of the next six weeks targeting London and Liverpool.

On politics in general, lots of very good people are put off by having to constantly live their lives in public as is the modern way. The parties need to hold on to the good ones they've got.

Roger

foxinsoxuk said:

Roger said:

surbiton said:

Good Morning. I see a few of the usual suspects are up and about already.

Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?

We're stumbling into a disaster here. Corbyn and Farron are the least impressive leaders of their respective parties in my lifetime. Though I can't say the same of May I think she'll be as dangerous as Thatcher with a large majority.

I can't accept that there is no mechanism short of a bus that can get rid of at least one of them so they can be replaced by someone with voter appeal.

I voted for Lamb in the leadership, but at the hustings was impressed with Farron. He certainly has built on the cult of shoeleather, doubling the party membership.

He was a little slow to clarify on the gay sex question, but has a good record where it matters in the Commons voting on LGBT issues. I suspect that in socially conservative Cumbria his well known Evangelical Christianity would not count against him.

I have been very bearish on LD prospects, but this is not a bet that I would back. Farron is not going to do worse than 2015. He is popular locally, has name recognition and there is a small swing to LD. File it with TSE's tip on Diane Abbott as leader.

I was invited to a smallish gathering to meet Tim farron and I found him likeable but not much else. I feared that his personality such as it was wouldn't project and I didn't think he was leader material.

I did Paddy's first PPB after becoming leader and the difference couldn't be more striking. He dominated the room and gathered an amused crowd even among a hard bitten film crew. The personality of a natural leader is quite a special thing and I really worry that Farron doesn't have it nice though he is. Anyway chin up!

ydoethur

AlastairMeeks said:

I expect he's ok. But having the Lib Dem leader in his own constituency at times in the campaign when he could be in Lib Dem / Conservative marginals will suit the Conservatives just fine.

That might be another reason for it. Maybe they're recasting him as Jeremy Thorpe 1970, who was more or less tied to North Devon and saw his party lose seats as a result? Although that raises some interesting questions given what happened next...

RobD

frpenkridge said:

Rod Liddle in the Sunday Times reckons after a straw poll that the Conservatives will hoover up ex-UKIP votes in the south, where they don't need them, but only 20% of them in the north, where they do. Reckons Mrs May will end up no better than she is now.

Not sure that matches what we saw in the locals.

Gadfly

Morris_Dancer said:

I was aware only one chap fell to the much touted decapitation strategy, but didn't realise Farron was the chap who benefited.

It is debatable whether Tim Collins was decapitated or committed suicide. He was barely visible in the constituency prior to the 2005 election, whereas Farron was everywhere.

daodao

@ TSE. Barrow isn't in Westmorland & its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail. The only constituency for which the Westmorland Gazette is the main local paper is that currently held by the "holier-than-thou" leader of the LieDems, so I suspect the Tories are targetting him.

However, the Westminster party leader most likely to be gone by midday on 9/6/17 is the member for Moray since 2001. If the Labour party get about 30% of the vote (as currently seems likely), why should Corbyn resign?

ydoethur

frpenkridge said:

Rod Liddle in the Sunday Times reckons after a straw poll that the Conservatives will hoover up ex-UKIP votes in the south, where they don't need them, but only 20% of them in the north, where they do. Reckons Mrs May will end up no better than she is now.

Conservative landslide nailed on then, given his track record?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Grinder, if Farron wins but his majority is smaller than the fish finger's vote tally, he might be damned grateful for his unwitting ally.

Edited extra bit: and welcome to pb.com

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Gadfly, ah, I was unaware of that. Cheers for the info.

SimonStClare

Morning all.

To be honest I don’t see Tim Farron losing his seat as a ‘Portillo’ moment, but there are quite a few on the Labour benches who would qualify imo, and the loss of a brace of Eagle sisters would be doubly plus good.

logical_song

Sandpit said:

surbiton said:

Good Morning. I see a few of the usual suspects are up and about already.

Are there any Tory seats vulnerable to the Lib Dem ? What are the current odds on Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton , Brighton Kemptown ?

Morning, it's a little easier when you're a few hours ahead

Twickenham 1.5 LD 2.32Con
Kingston LD 1.88 Con 1.75
Brighton K Con 1.06

All from Betfair Exchange https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics

If you want a riskier bet - Eastleigh (4/1 William Hill) where the LibDems gained 4 to win all 7 County seats. Betfair is 7/2, I got on at 5/1.

Gadfly

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Edit: Forget the first bit. I misunderstood daodao.

SquareRoot

SimonStClare said:

Morning all.

To be honest I don’t see Tim Farron losing his seat as a ‘Portillo’ moment, but there are quite a few on the Labour benches who would qualify imo, and the loss of a brace of Eagle sisters would be doubly plus good.

Unlikely.

One has a majority of 16K the other 27K

RobD

Gadfly said:

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Yeah, daodao was making that point too. They were saying that Barrow's paper was the NW Evening Mail.

Gadfly

RobD said:

Gadfly said:

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Yeah, daodao was making that point too. They were saying that Barrow's paper was the NW Evening Mail.

Agreed. I have already corrected my post below.

peter_from_putney

frpenkridge said:

Rod Liddle in the Sunday Times reckons after a straw poll that the Conservatives will hoover up ex-UKIP votes in the south, where they don't need them, but only 20% of them in the north, where they do. Reckons Mrs May will end up no better than she is now.

If Mr Liddle has the courage to back his convictions and is prove correct, then he could make a great deal of money!

RobD

Gadfly said:

RobD said:

Gadfly said:

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Yeah, daodao was making that point too. They were saying that Barrow's paper was the NW Evening Mail.

Agreed. I have already corrected my post below.

Ah, sorry about that!

Scott_P

FPT

RobD said:

Serious question. What device is used to signal a Scottish Labour Surge?

The mating call of a Giant Dodo

SouthamObserver

frpenkridge said:

Rod Liddle in the Sunday Times reckons after a straw poll that the Conservatives will hoover up ex-UKIP votes in the south, where they don't need them, but only 20% of them in the north, where they do. Reckons Mrs May will end up no better than she is now.

Not going to happen.

But if it did, May would be toast.

foxinsoxuk

RobD said:

frpenkridge said:

Rod Liddle in the Sunday Times reckons after a straw poll that the Conservatives will hoover up ex-UKIP votes in the south, where they don't need them, but only 20% of them in the north, where they do. Reckons Mrs May will end up no better than she is now.

Not sure that matches what we saw in the locals.

It matches what we saw in Wales. Kipper voters went several ways there.

Urban kippers may not behave the same as those on the coast. Liddle has a valid point, even if a little over egged, about the Conservative vote becoming less efficient. The Labour vote may do the same, leaving fewer swing seats than ever.

malcolmg

RobD said:

frpenkridge said:

Rod Liddle in the Sunday Times reckons after a straw poll that the Conservatives will hoover up ex-UKIP votes in the south, where they don't need them, but only 20% of them in the north, where they do. Reckons Mrs May will end up no better than she is now.

Not sure that matches what we saw in the locals.

Not fitting the fantasy , oh dear

ydoethur

daodao said:

If the Labour party get about 30% of the vote (as currently seems likely), why should Corbyn resign?

If in the middle of chaos, massive constitutional upheaval, substantial austerity, a failed fiscal consolidation, the most right wing government ever seen, an NHS and education system in meltdown due to lack of funding and tax cuts only for wealthy people Labour cannot poll better than a lunatic who had been running the country for 13 years seven years ago, why should he stay?

All of that must be true, after all, as Jeremy Corbyn has said so and we know he is an honest and principled man who offers a new kinder, gentler politics.

ydoethur

To be serious, one problem is he has ramped up everything to such a pitch he's going to look like an idiot unless he at least forces a hung parliament. Admittedly, he is an idiot and it doesn't seem to bother him much, but it may finally get through the thick skulls of his supporters that his solution is not working.

frpenkridge

Niall Ferguson on the end of the left's chapter in history (Sunday Times)
"The old coalition between progressive elites and the proletariat is broken. The former are too liberal on immigration, too in love with multiculturalism. The latter loathe both. As David Goodhart shrewdly observed 13 years ago, a redistributive welfare state is viable only in an ethnically homogeneous society. He was vilified for saying it. He has been vindicated by events."

Scott_P

ydoethur said:

To be serious, one problem is he has ramped up everything to such a pitch he's going to look like an idiot unless he at least forces a hung parliament. Admittedly, he is an idiot and it doesn't seem to bother him much, but it may finally get through the thick skulls of his supporters that his solution is not working.

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861100206988939264

ThomasNashe

I honestly think the idea that Labour will end up with 30% is for the birds. I suspect the Tories are holding their fire against Corbyn until the last week of the campaign.

Roger

frpenkridge said:

Rod Liddle in the Sunday Times reckons after a straw poll that the Conservatives will hoover up ex-UKIP votes in the south, where they don't need them, but only 20% of them in the north, where they do. Reckons Mrs May will end up no better than she is now.

I'm always suspicious of straw polls taken on a friday afternoon at the Coach and Horses

Scott_P

So now you know why I shouldn’t be voting Conservative on the 8th June. Except, I will.

Here’s why.

I’m sure no one will be surprised that my reasons are as much negative as anything else. They can also be summed up in two words: Jeremy Corbyn.

What’s so wrong with that nice Mr Corbyn? I like allotments. I like North London. Well, in the first place, as was said about Tsar Nicholas II, he’s not fit to run a village post office – just imagine Diane Abbott doing the figures. But if only it were incompetence alone. Some of Corbyn’s fans are simply naïve, but he, his circle, and some of his followers are genuinely venal. Later, I will summon up other ghosts; for now, let’s remember the delights of Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin, or the currently all too extant Seumas Milne and John McDonnell. The thought of the great offices of state being occupied by Corbyn, Abbott, Thornberry and McDonnell (who, as Daniel Finklestein pointed out, is worst of all) is one to chill the bones of any sensible analyst.

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/simon-tilbrook-im-a-lifelong-labour-supporter-and-an-arch-remainer-heres-why-im-voting-conservative.html

ydoethur

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Fysics_Teacher

Gadfly said:

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Edit: Forget the first bit. I misunderstood daodao.

Was that the paper that carried a wrap-round ad from Labour in the by-election which said (and I paraphrase a bit) vote Labour or the baby gets it?

foxinsoxuk

Gadfly said:

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Edit: Forget the first bit. I misunderstood daodao.

Newspaper wraparound adverts didn't do Labour much good in Copeland.

I think that this wraparound just reflects the paucity of conservative activists young enough to pound the pavements, hence the bussed in youngsters in the 2015 election. Farron has them in spades.

foxinsoxuk

Fysics_Teacher said:

Gadfly said:

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Edit: Forget the first bit. I misunderstood daodao.

Was that the paper that carried a wrap-round ad from Labour in the by-election which said (and I paraphrase a bit) vote Labour or the baby gets it?

That was a different one. Times are hard for local papers, any advertising is gratefully received.

ydoethur

Scott_P said:

As was said about Tsar Nicholas II, he’s not fit to run a village post office – just imagine Diane Abbott doing the figures.

I think that is very unfair.

Nicholas may have been a dreadful Tsar who was as Witte said unfit to run a post office, but he was a good husband and devoted father.

You can't even say that about Jeremy Corbyn.

surbiton

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

As was said about Tsar Nicholas II, he’s not fit to run a village post office – just imagine Diane Abbott doing the figures.

I think that is very unfair.

Nicholas may have been a dreadful Tsar who was as Witte said unfit to run a post office, but he was a good husband and devoted father.

You can't even say that about Jeremy Corbyn.

How do you know ? There is no need for personal comments like that. You do not like him politically, fair enough. He has not personally harmed you as far as we are aware.

daodao

ThomasNashe said:

I honestly think the idea that Labour will end up with 30% is for the birds. I suspect the Tories are holding their fire against Corbyn until the last week of the campaign.

You may be right. It seemed until the last week of the GE 2015 campaign that we were heading for a hung parliament, with Lab having a good chance of having the most seats, and then it slipped away (the Edstone, EM in Salmond's pocket and Con's targetting of the LieDems being key reasons). There may be a late swing to the Tories when wavering voters consider the potential chaos of the alternative(s).

SquareRoot

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Cooper is not a big hitter. She is a failed ex minister for HIPS (a disaster) who gets a bit shouty from time to time.

If she is to be described as a "big hitter", then Labour really are in deep shit.

Bufton_Tufton

Hmm. The people have spoken, the b... (Dick Tuck). Useful article on the state of play down here in Cornwall after the local elections.

http://www.cornwalllive.com/cornwall-local-elections-what-happens-next-and-what-the-result-says-about-the-general-election/story-30316634-detail/story.html

Still everything to play for the LDs - I wonder if we will get a state visit from David Cameron?

surbiton

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Cooper is a Blairite. "Brownites" are also "New Labour". Miliband less so.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Nashe, last week is too late. Ideas need time to percolate through to the electorate.

If everybody was a PBer, then the last day would be sufficient, but given general casual interest/apathy, weeks are needed.

ydoethur

surbiton said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

As was said about Tsar Nicholas II, he’s not fit to run a village post office – just imagine Diane Abbott doing the figures.

I think that is very unfair.

Nicholas may have been a dreadful Tsar who was as Witte said unfit to run a post office, but he was a good husband and devoted father.

You can't even say that about Jeremy Corbyn.

How do you know ? There is no need for personal comments like that. You do not like him politically, fair enough. He has not personally harmed you as far as we are aware.

I was thinking of the number of times he has been divorced (is it two or three?) plus his extra marital affairs, one of course with his current SHS. One of them was because he wanted to send his son to a failing school to make a political point.

If you're saying this shows him as a good husband and father, then I have to say I think you have a somewhat different view of a 'good' family man from mine.

That's not personal, just a statement of fact. I realise that speaking the truth about Corbyn will not make me popular with Labour diehards such as yourself.

ydoethur

ydoethur said:

surbiton said:

How do you know ? There is no need for personal comments like that. You do not like him politically, fair enough. He has not personally harmed you as far as we are aware.

I was thinking of the number of times he has been divorced (is it two or three?) plus his extra marital affairs, one of course with his current SHS. One of them was because he wanted to send his son to a failing school to make a political point.

If you're saying this shows him as a good husband and father, then I have to say I think you have a somewhat different view of a 'good' family man from mine.

That's not personal, just a statement of fact. I realise that speaking the truth about Corbyn will not make me popular with Labour diehards such as yourself.

And on your final point, he is damaging me personally because he is smashing the Labour Party to pieces and leaving a poor government with no opposition. That damages all of us. A man of honour would have realised his unfitness and resigned long ago to let someone more competent pick up the pieces as best they could.

He is a loathsome person, an utter failure and has no redeeming features, being a genuine blight upon our democracy. Personal or not, whether you like it or not, that is the truth.

SouthamObserver

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Cooper is not a big hitter. She is a failed ex minister for HIPS (a disaster) who gets a bit shouty from time to time.

If she is to be described as a "big hitter", then Labour really are in deep shit.

Cooper or anyone else only has to be a match for the opposition. When you look at the deep mediocrity - at best - of the current cabinet it's clear that Labour would have no problem on that front if there was a full team to choose from.

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

FPT

RobD said:

Serious question. What device is used to signal a Scottish Labour Surge?

The mating call of a Giant Dodo

You calling to your great leader Scott

malcolmg

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Cooper is not a big hitter. She is a failed ex minister for HIPS (a disaster) who gets a bit shouty from time to time.

If she is to be described as a "big hitter", then Labour really are in deep shit.

Deeper than deep

Roger

Scott_P said:

So now you know why I shouldn’t be voting Conservative on the 8th June. Except, I will.

Here’s why.

I’m sure no one will be surprised that my reasons are as much negative as anything else. They can also be summed up in two words: Jeremy Corbyn.

What’s so wrong with that nice Mr Corbyn? I like allotments. I like North London. Well, in the first place, as was said about Tsar Nicholas II, he’s not fit to run a village post office – just imagine Diane Abbott doing the figures. But if only it were incompetence alone. Some of Corbyn’s fans are simply naïve, but he, his circle, and some of his followers are genuinely venal. Later, I will summon up other ghosts; for now, let’s remember the delights of Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin, or the currently all too extant Seumas Milne and John McDonnell. The thought of the great offices of state being occupied by Corbyn, Abbott, Thornberry and McDonnell (who, as Daniel Finklestein pointed out, is worst of all) is one to chill the bones of any sensible analyst.

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/simon-tilbrook-im-a-lifelong-labour-supporter-and-an-arch-remainer-heres-why-im-voting-conservative.html

I'm not sure 'venal' is a very fair description of Abbott Corbyn Thornberry and McDonnell. I think of one or two words you could use but not venal.

Fysics_Teacher

foxinsoxuk said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Gadfly said:

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Edit: Forget the first bit. I misunderstood daodao.

Was that the paper that carried a wrap-round ad from Labour in the by-election which said (and I paraphrase a bit) vote Labour or the baby gets it?

That was a different one. Times are hard for local papers, any advertising is gratefully received.

Thanks.
I'm not sure I'm happy with political adverts in that form as it's not immediately obvious that they are paid advertising rather than editorial content. I know all sides use them and I expect they are effective, but still...

murali_s

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Cooper is not a big hitter. She is a failed ex minister for HIPS (a disaster) who gets a bit shouty from time to time.

If she is to be described as a "big hitter", then Labour really are in deep shit.

Sadly, there is very little talent in the Labour party.

In fact, the talent across the political spectrum is limited these days. Is there a reason for this? Are talented people just giving politics a miss these days?

Gadfly

I'm worrying about TSE's £50...

In 2010 Farron got 60% of the vote, which fell to 51.5% in 2015.

His popularity may have since increased through becoming party leader, but conversely his previously well hidden leftism is now apparent to all. W&L is a largely rural constituency, which are not necessarily famed for being lefty and the Tories have selected a local farmer come councillor to be Farron's opponent.

UKIP took 3051 votes in 2015, which could go to the Tories.

Younger people in the constituency appear to be abandoning Farron in swathes over the gay sex issue.

47.1% of South Lakeland voted leave and these voters could potentially object to Farron's stance on the EU.

The fact that the Tories are planning a wrap around ad suggests that they think the seat could be winnable, but I agree with Dr Fox about the impact of such ads.

I suspect that Mr Fishfinger's friends will vote for him, but nobody else.

numbertwelve

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Cooper is not a big hitter. She is a failed ex minister for HIPS (a disaster) who gets a bit shouty from time to time.

If she is to be described as a "big hitter", then Labour really are in deep shit.

Cooper or anyone else only has to be a match for the opposition. When you look at the deep mediocrity - at best - of the current cabinet it's clear that Labour would have no problem on that front if there was a full team to choose from.

Cooper has the advantage of looking brilliant next to Jezza. Hence what was a fairly standard "you can't believe what she says" intervention in parliament the other day was lauded as some kind of masterstroke.

That said, I agree she'd probably do quite well. The question is, would the membership elect her? I have my doubts that the Labour Party is suddenly going to do a 180 degree turn overnight.

Fysics_Teacher

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Cooper is not a big hitter. She is a failed ex minister for HIPS (a disaster) who gets a bit shouty from time to time.

If she is to be described as a "big hitter", then Labour really are in deep shit.

Cooper or anyone else only has to be a match for the opposition. When you look at the deep mediocrity - at best - of the current cabinet it's clear that Labour would have no problem on that front if there was a full team to choose from.

So what is going wrong that both Labour and the Conservatives fail to attract the best and brightest into politics at that level? Were they really so much better in the days of our youth, or are we (and I do agree with you on this) wearing rose tinted spectacles for the past?

foxinsoxuk

ydoethur said:

surbiton said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

As was said about Tsar Nicholas II, he’s not fit to run a village post office – just imagine Diane Abbott doing the figures.

I think that is very unfair.

Nicholas may have been a dreadful Tsar who was as Witte said unfit to run a post office, but he was a good husband and devoted father.

You can't even say that about Jeremy Corbyn.

How do you know ? There is no need for personal comments like that. You do not like him politically, fair enough. He has not personally harmed you as far as we are aware.

I was thinking of the number of times he has been divorced (is it two or three?) plus his extra marital affairs, one of course with his current SHS. One of them was because he wanted to send his son to a failing school to make a political point.

If you're saying this shows him as a good husband and father, then I have to say I think you have a somewhat different view of a 'good' family man from mine.

That's not personal, just a statement of fact. I realise that speaking the truth about Corbyn will not make me popular with Labour diehards such as yourself.

Jezzas son Seb went to Cambridge, and is very close to him politically and socially.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/jeremy-corbyns-son-planning-stand-mp-safe-labour-seat/

His other son is doing engineering at York University but also seems close:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/03/jeremy-corbyns-son-mugged-thief-moped-fathers-constituency/

I am not sure about his third son, but It does seem that he is a reasonably good father.

AlastairMeeks

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/06/theresa-may-no-genius-labour-only-itself-to-blame-for-catastrophe?CMP=share_btn_tw

"I know Labour MPs with majorities in the 10,000 bracket who have become terrified that they will be consumed by the blue beast."

ToryJim

Mr Dancer - I think the point about campaigning messages taking time to percolate is germane. I do think last week events though can have impact, particularly when they underscore a pre-existing conception. Sheffield played into negative concerns about Kinnock as the EdStone did for Miliband. They tend to however be missteps by the challenger not anything by the leasing party. I would therefore anticipate a last dice roll by Labour around the 1st June.

Gadfly

Fysics_Teacher said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Gadfly said:

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Edit: Forget the first bit. I misunderstood daodao.

Was that the paper that carried a wrap-round ad from Labour in the by-election which said (and I paraphrase a bit) vote Labour or the baby gets it?

That was a different one. Times are hard for local papers, any advertising is gratefully received.

Thanks.
I'm not sure I'm happy with political adverts in that form as it's not immediately obvious that they are paid advertising rather than editorial content. I know all sides use them and I expect they are effective, but still...

The Westmorland Gazette often appears to be a weekly advert for St Farron; hence I suspect the wrap around may come as a shock to its readership :-)

Sandpit

Fysics_Teacher said:

Gadfly said:

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Edit: Forget the first bit. I misunderstood daodao.

Was that the paper that carried a wrap-round ad from Labour in the by-election which said (and I paraphrase a bit) vote Labour or the baby gets it?

Different local paper, but the right idea. For some reason Labour think it's fine when they do it, but not for others. More likely is they can't afford it at general election scale.

https://order-order.com/2017/05/04/labours-daft-advertising-whinge/

Personally not a fan of front page wrap-arounds, but if it keeps local journalism running then I guess it's a good thing overall.

frpenkridge

Cameron's still got the knack:
"David Cameron showed his face at the Oval last week for a fundraising dinner for a new cricket stadium in Rwanda. With guests still reeling from the news that he spent £25,000 on a garden shed, the forgotten man of Tory politics thanked them for “getting me out of my shepherd hut”. Cameron risked the wrath of his successor by explaining the purchase thus: “I know Theresa talks about strong and stable leadership but I only heard the first part about getting a strong stable.”" S.T.

DavidL

AlastairMeeks said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/06/theresa-may-no-genius-labour-only-itself-to-blame-for-catastrophe?CMP=share_btn_tw

"I know Labour MPs with majorities in the 10,000 bracket who have become terrified that they will be consumed by the blue beast."

Maybe they are spending too much time on PB!

Sean_F

ydoethur said:

surbiton said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

As was said about Tsar Nicholas II, he’s not fit to run a village post office – just imagine Diane Abbott doing the figures.

I think that is very unfair.

Nicholas may have been a dreadful Tsar who was as Witte said unfit to run a post office, but he was a good husband and devoted father.

You can't even say that about Jeremy Corbyn.

How do you know ? There is no need for personal comments like that. You do not like him politically, fair enough. He has not personally harmed you as far as we are aware.

I was thinking of the number of times he has been divorced (is it two or three?) plus his extra marital affairs, one of course with his current SHS. One of them was because he wanted to send his son to a failing school to make a political point.

If you're saying this shows him as a good husband and father, then I have to say I think you have a somewhat different view of a 'good' family man from mine.

That's not personal, just a statement of fact. I realise that speaking the truth about Corbyn will not make me popular with Labour diehards such as yourself.

Tell us what you really think.

Fysics_Teacher

Sandpit said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Gadfly said:

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Edit: Forget the first bit. I misunderstood daodao.

Was that the paper that carried a wrap-round ad from Labour in the by-election which said (and I paraphrase a bit) vote Labour or the baby gets it?

Different local paper, but the right idea. For some reason Labour think it's fine when they do it, but not for others. More likely is they can't afford it at general election scale.

https://order-order.com/2017/05/04/labours-daft-advertising-whinge/

How much would it cost to do it for a National paper?

AlsoIndigo

murali_s said:

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Cooper is not a big hitter. She is a failed ex minister for HIPS (a disaster) who gets a bit shouty from time to time.

If she is to be described as a "big hitter", then Labour really are in deep shit.

Sadly, there is very little talent in the Labour party.

In fact, the talent across the political spectrum is limited these days. Is there a reason for this? Are talented people just giving politics a miss these days?

I would say yes. Way too much risk and a very small chance of a reward compared to what is available in the private sector, or possibly even the public or third sector.

You could spend years pounding the pavement, kissing the right arses, carrying the bags of more important people, whilst earning less than you would as a junior manager at most blue chip companies, and then one day you have a slight slip of the keyboard on Twitter, and get torn apart by the keyboard activists and lambasted by the press, and your incipient career is over, if you are lucky with your family intact....

ydoethur

foxinsoxuk said:

ydoethur said:

surbiton said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

As was said about Tsar Nicholas II, he’s not fit to run a village post office – just imagine Diane Abbott doing the figures.

I think that is very unfair.

Nicholas may have been a dreadful Tsar who was as Witte said unfit to run a post office, but he was a good husband and devoted father.

You can't even say that about Jeremy Corbyn.

How do you know ? There is no need for personal comments like that. You do not like him politically, fair enough. He has not personally harmed you as far as we are aware.

I was thinking of the number of times he has been divorced (is it two or three?) plus his extra marital affairs, one of course with his current SHS. One of them was because he wanted to send his son to a failing school to make a political point.

If you're saying this shows him as a good husband and father, then I have to say I think you have a somewhat different view of a 'good' family man from mine.

That's not personal, just a statement of fact. I realise that speaking the truth about Corbyn will not make me popular with Labour diehards such as yourself.

Jezzas son Seb went to Cambridge, and is very close to him politically and socially.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/jeremy-corbyns-son-planning-stand-mp-safe-labour-seat/

His other son is doing engineering at York University but also seems close:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/03/jeremy-corbyns-son-mugged-thief-moped-fathers-constituency/

I am not sure about his third son, but It does seem that he is a reasonably good father.

My understanding was that after their mother divorced him there was a frosty period before they re-established relations, because she sent them to grammar schools not comprehensives. But I do not know in detail (as surbiton rightly points out, I do not know the family personally) and given the disasters I see from broken families every day of the week I would be delighted to think I was wrong about that.

Big_G_NorthWales

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

FPT

RobD said:

Serious question. What device is used to signal a Scottish Labour Surge?

The mating call of a Giant Dodo

You calling to your great leader Scott

Morning Malc - My predictions in the North East of a conservative revival was genuinely based on my knowledge of the fishing communities and I am sure you will have the courtesy to accept that.

However, the battle between the SNP and the conservatives is for the future of the Union and it does look as if Nicola may have been premature in her drive for indy2 but I do think Salmond overcame her instinct and pressured her into the move she made.

I am not suggesting that Ruth Davidson is about to become FM anytime soon but at last there is a real opposition to Nicola for the first time in a long time

ydoethur

frpenkridge said:

Cameron's still got the knack:
"David Cameron showed his face at the Oval last week for a fundraising dinner for a new cricket stadium in Rwanda. With guests still reeling from the news that he spent £25,000 on a garden shed, the forgotten man of Tory politics thanked them for “getting me out of my shepherd hut”. Cameron risked the wrath of his successor by explaining the purchase thus: “I know Theresa talks about strong and stable leadership but I only heard the first part about getting a strong stable.”" S.T.

Now he's resigned it doesn't matter if he makes an ass of himself?

SquareRoot

foxinsoxuk said:

ydoethur said:

surbiton said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

As was said about Tsar Nicholas II, he’s not fit to run a village post office – just imagine Diane Abbott doing the figures.

I think that is very unfair.

Nicholas may have been a dreadful Tsar who was as Witte said unfit to run a post office, but he was a good husband and devoted father.

You can't even say that about Jeremy Corbyn.

How do you know ? There is no need for personal comments like that. You do not like him politically, fair enough. He has not personally harmed you as far as we are aware.

I was thinking of the number of times he has been divorced (is it two or three?) plus his extra marital affairs, one of course with his current SHS. One of them was because he wanted to send his son to a failing school to make a political point.

If you're saying this shows him as a good husband and father, then I have to say I think you have a somewhat different view of a 'good' family man from mine.

That's not personal, just a statement of fact. I realise that speaking the truth about Corbyn will not make me popular with Labour diehards such as yourself.

Jezzas son Seb went to Cambridge, and is very close to him politically and socially.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/jeremy-corbyns-son-planning-stand-mp-safe-labour-seat/

His other son is doing engineering at York University but also seems close:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/03/jeremy-corbyns-son-mugged-thief-moped-fathers-constituency/

I am not sure about his third son, but It does seem that he is a reasonably good father.

If you include his son getting a safe seat then I guess you might be correct, 60 grand a yr pension for life thank you.
What your sons doing well at school has to do with parentage is another question. A lot of kids do well despite their parents.

SouthamObserver

Fysics_Teacher said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Cooper is not a big hitter. She is a failed ex minister for HIPS (a disaster) who gets a bit shouty from time to time.

If she is to be described as a "big hitter", then Labour really are in deep shit.

Cooper or anyone else only has to be a match for the opposition. When you look at the deep mediocrity - at best - of the current cabinet it's clear that Labour would have no problem on that front if there was a full team to choose from.

So what is going wrong that both Labour and the Conservatives fail to attract the best and brightest into politics at that level? Were they really so much better in the days of our youth, or are we (and I do agree with you on this) wearing rose tinted spectacles for the past?

Politics is too managed and too adversarial. It's also full-time way before you get to be an MP and there are an awful lot of folk to brown-nose along the way. Once elected, your chances of making much difference to anything are close to zero. That's not a great package to put in front of people.

Sandpit

Fysics_Teacher said:

Sandpit said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Gadfly said:

daodao said:

its local paper is the North-West Evening Mail.

W&L's local rag IS the Westmorland Gazette.

I noticed some form of protest vote doing the rounds on Twitter yesterday petitioning the Gazette's publishers not to take the Tory wrap around.

Edit: Forget the first bit. I misunderstood daodao.

Was that the paper that carried a wrap-round ad from Labour in the by-election which said (and I paraphrase a bit) vote Labour or the baby gets it?

Different local paper, but the right idea. For some reason Labour think it's fine when they do it, but not for others. More likely is they can't afford it at general election scale.

https://order-order.com/2017/05/04/labours-daft-advertising-whinge/

How much would it cost to do it for a National paper?

That's a good question. Lots will be the answer. ISTR a full page inside ad in the Times runs to something like £15k, so a wraparound probably close to £50k if they'd take it.

Alternatively the national parties can just take advantage of the free publicity they get from the editorial and opinion team of their supportive newspapers.

MattW

How good are Buzzfeed on sweating the detail of this?

The Mansfield Chad is actually The Mansfield and Ashfield Chad, with 2 editions with somewhat (25%?) different content matching the two constituencies quite well. The Chad has always been the utterly dominant local paper.

Are BF saying that the ad did not reach Ashfield, so Alan Meale is targeted whilst Gloria is not?

Similarly the Derbyshire Times (readers: 100k+) is countywide minus Derby (I think) with 5 editions for Chesterfield/Clay Cross, East, North East, Alfreton area, and Matlock/Peak (Wiki).

Is BF saying the others are *not* targetted?

Sean_F

AlsoIndigo said:

murali_s said:

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Cooper is not a big hitter. She is a failed ex minister for HIPS (a disaster) who gets a bit shouty from time to time.

If she is to be described as a "big hitter", then Labour really are in deep shit.

Sadly, there is very little talent in the Labour party.

In fact, the talent across the political spectrum is limited these days. Is there a reason for this? Are talented people just giving politics a miss these days?

I would say yes. Way too much risk and a very small chance of a reward compared to what is available in the private sector, or possibly even the public or third sector.

You could spend years pounding the pavement, kissing the right arses, carrying the bags of more important people, whilst earning less than you would as a junior manager at most blue chip companies, and then one day you have a slight slip of the keyboard on Twitter, and get torn apart by the keyboard activists and lambasted by the press, and your incipient career is over, if you are lucky with your family intact....

Even worse, you can spend years kissing arses, only to find out you were kissing the wrong arses.

foxinsoxuk

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

ydoethur said:

Scott_P said:

No, it will be the Blairites fault

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/861098310182088704

Watson isn't a Blairite. Nor is Miliband or indeed Cooper. But I suppose in the strange parallel universe inhabited by the Jezaster's followers Brownites and Blairites were the equivalent of two follically challenged men squabbling over a comb.

As an aside, how bloody awful are things getting when putting a rude, lazy, stupid, dishonest bully like Watson on the airwaves could conceivably improve them?

Cooper is not a big hitter. She is a failed ex minister for HIPS (a disaster) who gets a bit shouty from time to time.

If she is to be described as a "big hitter", then Labour really are in deep shit.

Cooper or anyone else only has to be a match for the opposition. When you look at the deep mediocrity - at best - of the current cabinet it's clear that Labour would have no problem on that front if there was a full team to choose from.

I cannot help but point in the direction of Jon Ashworth, who I first didn't like*. He has some proper organising skills, and has recently become a lot more comfortable in his media appearances. He has a reasonable backstory, and is fairly Brownite, yet willing to serve in the shadow cabinet. He will get a lot of Union support too.

* While backing him at long odds (still good on BF) helps, he has particularly campaigned on a few issues concerning alcoholism and addiction. He has grown on me, and he is a fresh face rather than a New Labour retread.