SouthamObserver said:

Voted LibDem today even though the very nice secretary of our CLP is standing in my ward. Can't see myself voting for them at the GE, though, so it may be a spoiled ballot paper for me. There were a fair few people voting at the same time as me and I think close to 1,000 had been through the doors by 3.30 pm when I was there, which seems quite high for a local election.

Any idea what kind of turnout the place gets normally? I find it hard to judge - I'm told very poor turnout in some stations round my way, but its an area with turnout under 25% last time anyway.

kle4 said:

tyson said:

kle4 said:

Carolus_Rex said:

tyson said:

Could you imagine if Corbyn stepped down after today's results and Tom Watson or Starmer took over for the election? I think we would see just how flakey the Tories lead actually is.

It's not going to happen of course.......

Could Labour fill a vacancy that quickly?

If not then they go into an election with a deputy leader and no real indication of who will take over afterwards. I can't see how that improves their prospects.

Indeed. And up until now, unless they've openly disavowed him like woodcock, they have implicitly been saying they want him to prime minister. Junking him now is too late, it's not credible and the Tories would hit them just as hard. They have to wait it once more.

It's not too late....it would completely change the momentum of the election into something completely unpredictable. It would have to be a coronation for Starmer or Watson; Starmer by virtue that he is leading Brexit/ a two year timetable with a backhand deal that the 5% change gets passed through the NEC. It is the only way IMO to avoid a terrible, acrimonious, battle for the heart of the party after a Corbyn landslide defeat.

But Starmer is, implicitly or explicitly, at the moment saying 'vote for Corbyn for PM', so even if a coronation the Tory argument that a vote for Labour is for Corbyn style policies works, with the added chaos of a sudden change in leader which would not be universally accepted by members even if Corbyn said it was of his volition - there would be disruption and infighting, even more chaos for the Tories topoint to.

Give Corbyn's had an ok start, it might even make things worse, and surely not that much better.

Labour would get my vote if Corbyn was not leader and was not replaced by another far left headbanger. I imagine there are fair few like me. But there is not a snowball's chance in hell of it happening. And he will not be standing down after the GE, either. He will need to be challenged.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

OT Premium bond holders can now type their holders' numbers into the NS website to be told how much they've won -- no need to log in. So much for security. It's the stupidest idea since someone asked Ed Miliband if he fancied a bacon roll.

How hard would it be for you to find out your partner's number?

Hint: browsers will auto-fill it anyway.

I receive mine online through their app which is very good

And anyone who knows or can find out your holder's number can get it from the website without needing to log into your account. That's the scary part.

Mr. Observer, indeed.

I did argue that the PLP (and I said this quite early in Corbyn's misrule) either had to nominate one of their own number as a Commons leader and take whipping lead from him/her, or split.

If Corbyn wins a third leadership contest, assuming things go predictably in the election, then the PLP will have wasted some time and made their job a lot harder.

SeanT said:

Arthur_Penny said:

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

Parents Heinlein readers? (Glory Road)

Her sister's name is FLAME, and her best friend is called PROPHECY

Star Killer

SouthamObserver said:

tyson said:

kle4 said:

Carolus_Rex said:

tyson said:

Could you imagine if Corbyn stepped down after today's results and Tom Watson or Starmer took over for the election? I think we would see just how flakey the Tories lead actually is.

It's not going to happen of course.......

Could Labour fill a vacancy that quickly?

If not then they go into an election with a deputy leader and no real indication of who will take over afterwards. I can't see how that improves their prospects.

Indeed. And up until now, unless they've openly disavowed him like woodcock, they have implicitly been saying they want him to prime minister. Junking him now is too late, it's not credible and the Tories would hit them just as hard. They have to wait it once more.

It's not too late....it would completely change the momentum of the election into something completely unpredictable. It would have to be a coronation for Starmer or Watson; Starmer by virtue that he is leading Brexit/ a two year timetable with a backhand deal that the 5% change gets passed through the NEC. It is the only way IMO to avoid a terrible, acrimonious, destructive battle for the heart of the party after a Corbyn landslide defeat.

That battle has to happen. And if the far left wins again, there will have to be a Labour split.

If Labour score where they are now, high 20s early 30s, I think the far left will win.

tyson said:

kle4 said:

Carolus_Rex said:

tyson said:

Could you imagine if Corbyn stepped down after today's results and Tom Watson or Starmer took over for the election? I think we would see just how flakey the Tories lead actually is.

It's not going to happen of course.......

Could Labour fill a vacancy that quickly?

If not then they go into an election with a deputy leader and no real indication of who will take over afterwards. I can't see how that improves their prospects.

Indeed. And up until now, unless they've openly disavowed him like woodcock, they have implicitly been saying they want him to prime minister. Junking him now is too late, it's not credible and the Tories would hit them just as hard. They have to wait it once more.

It's not too late....it would completely change the momentum of the election into something completely unpredictable. It would have to be a coronation for Starmer or Watson; Starmer by virtue that he is leading Brexit/ a two year timetable with a backhand deal that the 5% change gets passed through the NEC. It is the only way IMO to avoid a terrible, acrimonious, destructive battle for the heart of the party after a Corbyn landslide defeat.

That would be worse than keeping Corbyn.

Let's suppose a best-case scenario for Labour, where Corbyn stands down voluntarily. Frankly, I think the chances of that are about 50/1 at best but that's beside the point. Presumably, Watson takes over. So far, so smooth.

But what then? On what manifesto does he run? Who writes it and on what authority (the leader not having full power in that regard)? What happens to the Shadow Cabinet? Does Watson keep McDonnell and Abbott in place? If so, won't the Tories just portray it as more of the same? If not, shadow ministers will go into interviews with virtually no preparation.

And what of the membership? Will the ones who voted Corbyn in twice accept what would amount to a coup if there was any deviation from Corbyn's policies? Constituency campaigns up and down the country would be thrown into chaos.

Then there's what happens next. Watson could lead Labour for up to 18 months (IIRC) without an election but there *would be* a leadership election. Particularly if the 5% rule or similar was introduced, wouldn't that put the left's candidate in pole position? Again, isn't that just writing the Tory script for them? John McDonnell for PM? (There's a good chance it wouldn't be him but I doubt he'd rule himself out and that'd be enough).

Finally, there'd be some kind of stab-in-the-back / if-only myth. If Corbyn doesn't lead Labour into the election, the left would always cherish the dream of the Stolen Victory.

No, events are too far gone. The risks and costs of replacing Corbyn are now greater than those of keeping him.

Macron threatens to sue over claims he has a secret bank account in the Bahamas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39802776

tyson said:

kle4 said:

tyson said:

kle4 said:

Carolus_Rex said:

tyson said:

Could you imagine if Corbyn stepped down after today's results and Tom Watson or Starmer took over for the election? I think we would see just how flakey the Tories lead actually is.

It's not going to happen of course.......

Could Labour fill a vacancy that quickly?

If not then they go into an election with a deputy leader and no real indication of who will take over afterwards. I can't see how that improves their prospects.

Indeed. And up until now, unless they've openly disavowed him like woodcock, they have implicitly been saying they want him to prime minister. Junking him now is too late, it's not credible and the Tories would hit them just as hard. They have to wait it once more.

It's not too late....it would completely change the momentum of the election into something completely unpredictable. It would have to be a coronation for Starmer or Watson; Starmer by virtue that he is leading Brexit/ a two year timetable with a backhand deal that the 5% change gets passed through the NEC. It is the only way IMO to avoid a terrible, acrimonious, battle for the heart of the party after a Corbyn landslide defeat.

But Starmer is, implicitly or explicitly, at the moment saying 'vote for Corbyn for PM', so even if a coronation the Tory argument that a vote for Labour is for Corbyn style policies works, with the added chaos of a sudden change in leader which would not be universally accepted by members even if Corbyn said it was of his volition - there would be disruption and infighting, even more chaos for the Tories topoint to.

Give Corbyn's had an ok start, it might even make things worse, and surely not that much better.

I doubt Labour could sink lower than 25%...the upsides are it would electrify the election, and terrify the Tories.

At the moment the left are holding a fair few cards with Corbyn as leader. When they lose disastrously with Corbyn as leader and the moderates wrestle back control as they surely will after a protracted bloody battle in the summer they will also lose any kind off leverage over the party.

If Corbyn walks now, the left can extract a high price for his act of self sacrifice.

I don't think that's true. Why would moderates connive in their defeat in the next leadership election? Sure, there are some MPs who might grasp at any opportunity to keep themselves afloat but when there aren't enough spaces in the lifeboats, the worst thing to do is overload them.

Hasn't it been reported that much of 'Corbynites' aren't actually getting out there and campaigning for him? They are most likely keyboard warriors.

If the hard left win, then I'm worried about British democracy. This situation where we have no functioning opposition is absolutely ridiculous.

Meanwhile, I can't actually believe this: http://nymag.com/thecut/2017/05/under-new-healthcare-bill-rape-is-a-pre-existing-condition.html

I wonder if the GE will be a "Something for everyone" election? i.e.
Small LD gains = "stopped the bleeding at Parliamentary level, and now recovering"
Decent Tory majority (say about 60-80) = "Much more comfortable than the current position. More wiggle room for the PM"
Labour with much fewer losses than expected (and vote share holding up) = "Much better base to recover from once the grown-ups recover the party / proof that socialism can attract votes ***"
UKIP vote very small = "practically everybody else happy"
SNP = "Same level of dominance, so reassured"

*** delete according to your preference

@AgnesCPoirier: European Commission says it is 'too busy' to interfere in UK general election, after Theresa May claim http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/uk-general-election-live-brexit-european-commission-theresa-may-rig-interference-a7717561.html

HYUFD said:

Obama endorses Macron by video message
http://www.lci.fr/elections/en-marche-vive-la-france-barack-obama-annonce-dans-une-video-son-soutien-a-emmanuel-macron-2050909.html

Not surprised, I remember reading that Obama had phoned him. Their world views also seem to be similar.

Wow! Windies getting back into their Test against Pakistan by dint of their bowling. 31-5 Gabriel doing the damage. Wonder if the pitch is breaking up.

ThreeQuidder said:

kle4 said:

tyson said:

kle4 said:

Carolus_Rex said:

tyson said:

Could you imagine if Corbyn stepped down after today's results and Tom Watson or Starmer took over for the election? I think we would see just how flakey the Tories lead actually is.

It's not going to happen of course.......

Could Labour fill a vacancy that quickly?

If not then they go into an election with a deputy leader and no real indication of who will take over afterwards. I can't see how that improves their prospects.

Indeed. And up until now, unless they've openly disavowed him like woodcock, they have implicitly been saying they want him to prime minister. Junking him now is too late, it's not credible and the Tories would hit them just as hard. They have to wait it once more.

It's not too late....it would completely change the momentum of the election into something completely unpredictable. It would have to be a coronation for Starmer or Watson; Starmer by virtue that he is leading Brexit/ a two year timetable with a backhand deal that the 5% change gets passed through the NEC. It is the only way IMO to avoid a terrible, acrimonious, battle for the heart of the party after a Corbyn landslide defeat.

But Starmer is, implicitly or explicitly, at the moment saying 'vote for Corbyn for PM', so even if a coronation the Tory argument that a vote for Labour is for Corbyn style policies works, with the added chaos of a sudden change in leader which would not be universally accepted by members even if Corbyn said it was of his volition - there would be disruption and infighting, even more chaos for the Tories topoint to.

Give Corbyn's had an ok start, it might even make things worse, and surely not that much better.

If Corbyn stands down now, the new leader will only be interim. I guess "Vote Labour, if we win there will be another new PM in the autumn" might be more appealing than "Vote Labour for Jeremy Corbyn to be PM", but that's not saying too much.

"Vote Labour for a blank space to be filled in by the guys who elected Corbyn the last two times". Not that much more appealing.

Beverley_C said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Hasn't it been reported that much of 'Corbynites' aren't actually getting out there and campaigning for him? They are most likely keyboard warriors.

If the hard left win, then I'm worried about British democracy. This situation where we have no functioning opposition is absolutely ridiculous.

Meanwhile, I can't actually believe this: http://nymag.com/thecut/2017/05/under-new-healthcare-bill-rape-is-a-pre-existing-condition.html

I can well believe that the Marmalade Monster's administration would do this. It seems that if you are not a well-heeled, WASP then the current administration see you as a cost, an inconvenience or an obstacle to stacking dollars away in bank accounts.

Sadly, I think that there is worse to come for the USA.

Yep. The Christian Right, especially, are utterly frightening in their world view. Like this, for example: http://theresurgent.com/you-will-get-punched-and-others-have-rights-too/

I remembering reading one of Ben Shapiro's books, where he pretty much wants everyone to live a life of sex until marriage, no gay marriage, no pornography, hates contraception, abortion is murder, we shouldn't tolerate what he deems to be societal immorality etc.

Ishmael_Z said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Ishmael_Z said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

OT Premium bond holders can now type their holders' numbers into the NS website to be told how much they've won -- no need to log in. So much for security. It's the stupidest idea since someone asked Ed Miliband if he fancied a bacon roll.

How hard would it be for you to find out your partner's number?

Hint: browsers will auto-fill it anyway.

I receive mine online through their app which is very good

And anyone who knows or can find out your holder's number can get it from the website without needing to log into your account. That's the scary part.

Scary, why? It simply tells you on a read-only basis what the current month's prize is. It doesn't let you deal with the prize money, let alone the bonds themselves, and the chances of the prize being a life-changing sum are negligible. If you kept a record over time you could estimate the size of the holding, given that with average luck you should be getting, on average, £25 per month per £29,000 invested. Exciting stuff.

The site tells me which prizes *you* have won. If that is not scary, please post here how much is in your bank account. After all, we won't be able to spend it, and we promise not to use the information to decide whether to blackmail, defraud or divorce you.

No, it tells you what I've won this month, which, as I've already said, is £50. Blackmail away. It's not that there could never be any circumstances ever where the problem you have identified might be a problem, but it isn't likely. You still need my holder number which I imagine is written down in, and only in, the same place as my full login details, so if you knew the one you'd know the other anyway.

When the TalkTalk hack became public, I phoned my bank and asked if I was at risk given that bank account details had apparently been stolen. They answered: "with those details they could possibly transfer money into your account."

dyedwoolie said:

HYUFD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

HYUFD said:

Obama endorses Macron by video message
http://www.lci.fr/elections/en-marche-vive-la-france-barack-obama-annonce-dans-une-video-son-soutien-a-emmanuel-macron-2050909.html

Not surprised, I remember reading that Obama had phoned him. Their world views also seem to be similar.

He will hope it is third time lucky after endorsing Remain and Hillary last year

I'd imagine all it will do is hand Le Pen some votes. The French really don't like being told what to do

Farage and Trump have both made very clear they want Le Pen to win. I'd back the French to favour Obama over those two every day of the week.

Mr. Observer, also worth noting Macron has a 20 point lead. It's not like the referendum here, when it was neck-and-neck and Obama stuck his oar in.

The_Apocalypse said:

Hasn't it been reported that much of 'Corbynites' aren't actually getting out there and campaigning for him? They are most likely keyboard warriors.

If the hard left win, then I'm worried about British democracy. This situation where we have no functioning opposition is absolutely ridiculous.

Meanwhile, I can't actually believe this: http://nymag.com/thecut/2017/05/under-new-healthcare-bill-rape-is-a-pre-existing-condition.html

Yep, Corbynista tend to stay behind the keyboard, which is why moderates tend to win when the votes require people to be in attendance - see CLP candidate nominations, regional executive appointments etc. It's a reason why there is a very good chance the McDonnell amendment will not be passed at conference in the autumn.

The new healthcare legislation in the US is going to put premiums up massively for millions of Americans and deprive many of them of coverage. The Republicans will now focus on voter suppression to ensure that those affected do not get a chance to kick them out.

The_Apocalypse said:

Beverley_C said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Hasn't it been reported that much of 'Corbynites' aren't actually getting out there and campaigning for him? They are most likely keyboard warriors.

If the hard left win, then I'm worried about British democracy. This situation where we have no functioning opposition is absolutely ridiculous.

Meanwhile, I can't actually believe this: http://nymag.com/thecut/2017/05/under-new-healthcare-bill-rape-is-a-pre-existing-condition.html

I can well believe that the Marmalade Monster's administration would do this. It seems that if you are not a well-heeled, WASP then the current administration see you as a cost, an inconvenience or an obstacle to stacking dollars away in bank accounts.

Sadly, I think that there is worse to come for the USA.

Yep. The Christian Right, especially, are utterly frightening in their world view. Like this, for example: http://theresurgent.com/you-will-get-punched-and-others-have-rights-too/

I remembering reading one of Ben Shapiro's books, where he pretty much wants everyone to live a life of sex until marriage, no gay marriage, no pornography, hates contraception, abortion is murder, we shouldn't tolerate what he deems to be societal immorality etc.

"...a life of sex until marriage..."

I'm sure a lot of married men can relate to that.

HYUFD said:

Macron threatens to sue over claims he has a secret bank account in the Bahamas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39802776

Well, obviously a lie (no matter if it exists or not) - it isn't secret, we are talking about it!

Ishmael_Z said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Ishmael_Z said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

OT Premium bond holders can now type their holders' numbers into the NS website to be told how much they've won -- no need to log in. So much for security. It's the stupidest idea since someone asked Ed Miliband if he fancied a bacon roll.

How hard would it be for you to find out your partner's number?

Hint: browsers will auto-fill it anyway.

I receive mine online through their app which is very good

And anyone who knows or can find out your holder's number can get it from the website without needing to log into your account. That's the scary part.

Scary, why? It simply tells you on a read-only basis what the current month's prize is. It doesn't let you deal with the prize money, let alone the bonds themselves, and the chances of the prize being a life-changing sum are negligible. If you kept a record over time you could estimate the size of the holding, given that with average luck you should be getting, on average, £25 per month per £29,000 invested. Exciting stuff.

The site tells me which prizes *you* have won. If that is not scary, please post here how much is in your bank account. After all, we won't be able to spend it, and we promise not to use the information to decide whether to blackmail, defraud or divorce you.

No, it tells you what I've won this month, which, as I've already said, is £50. Blackmail away. It's not that there could never be any circumstances ever where the problem you have identified might be a problem, but it isn't likely. You still need my holder number which I imagine is written down in, and only in, the same place as my full login details, so if you knew the one you'd know the other anyway.

£50 is neither here nor there, you are right. Suppose it said £50,000. And yes, I do need your holder's number but if I were living with you, the browser on the family PC would tell me. As it would if you used a public or work computer.

tyson said:

SouthamObserver said:

tyson said:

kle4 said:

Carolus_Rex said:

tyson said:

Could you imagine if Corbyn stepped down after today's results and Tom Watson or Starmer took over for the election? I think we would see just how flakey the Tories lead actually is.

It's not going to happen of course.......

Could Labour fill a vacancy that quickly?

If not then they go into an election with a deputy leader and no real indication of who will take over afterwards. I can't see how that improves their prospects.

Indeed. And up until now, unless they've openly disavowed him like woodcock, they have implicitly been saying they want him to prime minister. Junking him now is too late, it's not credible and the Tories would hit them just as hard. They have to wait it once more.

It's not too late....it would completely change the momentum of the election into something completely unpredictable. It would have to be a coronation for Starmer or Watson; Starmer by virtue that he is leading Brexit/ a two year timetable with a backhand deal that the 5% change gets passed through the NEC. It is the only way IMO to avoid a terrible, acrimonious, destructive battle for the heart of the party after a Corbyn landslide defeat.

That battle has to happen. And if the far left wins again, there will have to be a Labour split.

If the results tonight are truly terrible the putsch could start tomorrow.

The left will never be so powerful in the Labour Party as they are today. If they have any sense of strategy they need to do something with it rather than just lead the party into a massacre and lose their hand completely.

Labourites frothing about this dream is hilarious. They've tried this before. There is no procedure that makes it happen. Until the rump of the Labour Party find their balls and realise the brand is as dead as the leadership is stubborn, they'll not move on.

Well my Dad has voted for Andy Street in Coventry. Here's hoping he wins!

New Thread

new thread

SouthamObserver said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Hasn't it been reported that much of 'Corbynites' aren't actually getting out there and campaigning for him? They are most likely keyboard warriors.

If the hard left win, then I'm worried about British democracy. This situation where we have no functioning opposition is absolutely ridiculous.

Meanwhile, I can't actually believe this: http://nymag.com/thecut/2017/05/under-new-healthcare-bill-rape-is-a-pre-existing-condition.html

Yep, Corbynista tend to stay behind the keyboard, which is why moderates tend to win when the votes require people to be in attendance - see CLP candidate nominations, regional executive appointments etc. It's a reason why there is a very good chance the McDonnell amendment will not be passed at conference in the autumn.

The new healthcare legislation in the US is going to put premiums up massively for millions of Americans and deprive many of them of coverage. The Republicans will now focus on voter suppression to ensure that those affected do not get a chance to kick them out.

That's the one saving grace for Labour.

24 million people according to original CBO score won't have health insurance....wow. And now with the amendment re pre-existing conditions....

Apparently, it's unlikely that the bill in its current form will pass the Senate. Seems as though Team Trump are just looking to say they 'passed' something. They don't actually care what's in it, they just want to say they passed it. How sad.

In regard to voter suppression, the worst affected will be Trump country - older, white, working-class voters voted for Trump big time, and a lot of them are on Obamacare. Presumably, they believed Trump's promises in regard to pre-existing conditions during the election. So I wonder how they'd manage to stop Trump's own base from voting, as it won't just be minorities who get badly affected from this legislation. Increasingly, polls are showing that more Americans are open to single payer. I wonder if this legislation will shift the healthcare debate in the US more in that direction.

@Beverley_C Yeah, I'm not surprised by the content of that link. Pro-life when it's fetus, or in cases of euthanasia - Republicans embrace a very narrow definition of 'pro-life'. How this healthcare bill is 'pro-life' only God knows.

@Ishmael_Z The Westboro Bapist Church. Awful. Too many of those types define Christianity by how much hate they can spread. I think Louis Theroux did a documentary on them.